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The College Football Playoff selection committee might not even break a sweat this weekend. No lengthy debates, no Tylenol needed and early hotel checkouts all around.

No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 TCU and No. 4 USC appear one conference championship win away from locking up those coveted four spots. This will be the first time since 2017 there won’t be a top-five matchup during championship weekend, as TCU is the only team facing a top-10 CFP opponent in No. 10 Kansas State. USC has a tricky game against No. 11 Utah, but Michigan is playing unranked, four-loss Purdue.

Georgia is a heavy favorite against three-loss No. 14 LSU.

A win in their respective conference title games would punctuate their résumés with one of the tiebreakers used to separate them from the likes of No. 5 Ohio State (11-1) and No. 6 Alabama (10-2).

Even with a loss, both Georgia and Michigan seem on solid footing for a top-four finish, barring absolute meltdowns. The committee would have to balance Michigan’s win against Ohio State — arguably the best in the country — with the worst loss of any contender. It would still own the head-to-head, though against Ohio State.

The CFP is on the brink of a field that doesn’t include Ohio State, Alabama or Clemson. Let that sink in for a minute: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State have claimed 17 of the 32 playoff spots. This season, Ohio State and Alabama didn’t win their respective divisions. Their résumés are complete. At No. 9, two-loss Clemson is a playoff afterthought following its home loss to South Carolina, even if it beats three-loss North Carolina to win the ACC.

Instead of two — or three! — SEC teams, four different Power 5 conferences could be represented, with TCU and USC in position to finish in the top four for the first time in the CFP era. With USC facing Utah on Friday night, the Pac-12 will have the spotlight to itself for the one time the selection committee watches the games in-person together. Undefeated TCU will try to beat K-State for the second time this season, while USC has a chance to redeem itself from a regular-season loss to the Utes.

For the Buckeyes or Tide to creep back into the conversation, they’re going to need some help — and history says they could get it. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information research, 26 of the previous 32 teams in the top four in the second-to-last ranking have made the CFP. Five of the six that didn’t make it lost in the final weekend.

Here’s what the fifth ranking means if there are upsets when it matters the most, and how it will influence the committee on Selection Day:

Jump to:
Anger Index | 12-team bracket | Résumés |

Ohio State is ready to pounce — from their couches — with an upset

With Ohio State and Alabama not playing this weekend, their positions aren’t expected to change Sunday. Since the committee deems the Buckeyes better now, they would be the first considered if a team above them loses. The easiest path would be for USC to lose to Utah, because that would be USC’s second loss to the Utes this year, making it difficult for the committee to justify the Trojans as “unequivocally” one of the four best teams in the country. They also aren’t going to reward three-loss Utah, even though the Utes just won the Pac-12 title. Instead, the door would be open for Ohio State to move into the fourth spot. It gets a little trickier, though, if the only upset is TCU losing to K-State …


What happens if No. 3 TCU loses?

The biggest question looming is what happens if TCU loses? It would depend in part on how the Big 12 championship unfolds — if K-State were to win convincingly with the committee watching together, it makes it harder for them to keep the Frogs in the top four and brings Ohio State back into the conversation. TCU is currently No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, though, and it would have regular-season wins against K-State and No. 20 Texas. Those would be measured against Ohio State’s wins against No. 8 Penn State and No. 21 Notre Dame. If TCU loses a close game, and USC wins, it’s possible USC moves up to No. 3, and TCU drops to No. 4. TCU’s chances of staying in the top four increase if USC also loses, though, simply by default. That particular scenario would open the door for Alabama to also be considered. And yet …


No. 6 Alabama’s hopes are all but extinguished

If Alabama’s hopes are going to be resurrected, it would likely take two lopsided losses by both TCU and USC, but that still doesn’t rule out the possibility of TCU and Ohio State finishing in the top four. It helped Alabama that No. 24 Mississippi State popped into the fifth ranking, though it was basically a wash because the Bulldogs beat Ole Miss to get there, which was one of Alabama’s better wins. Alabama’s best win is at No. 20 Texas. The best news for the Tide? They were ranked ahead of both teams they lost to — No. 14 LSU and No. 7 Tennessee.


The American title game as de facto New Year’s 6 play-in game

The highest-ranked conference champion from a Group of 5 league is guaranteed a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, and that will be decided at 4 p.m. ET Saturday when No. 18 Tulane hosts No. 22 UCF in the American Athletic Conference championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane has a 59% chance to win. Cincinnati fell out this week following its 27-24 loss to Tulane on Friday, and 10-2 UTSA remained unranked, leaving the AAC at the top again. — Heather Dinich

Anger index

There’s a particularly poignant scene in a Season 5 episode of “The Simpsons,” in which Homer earns a spot aboard the space shuttle because his only competition for the honor got drunk on non-alcoholic champagne and flew off using a jet pack.

NASA boss: Well, Homer, I guess you’re the winner by default.

Homer: De-fault! The two sweetest words in the English language.

Indeed, it must’ve been particularly sweet for the College Football Playoff committee to watch as Ohio State, LSU, Clemson and Oregon each used Week 13 to crack open some Martinelli’s and head off into the wild, blue yonder. It made their job awfully easy.

So, if the top four is all in place by default, there’s little need for outrage, right? Perhaps we just need to dig a little deeper for this week’s Anger Index.

1. USC Trojans (ranked fourth)

Wait, didn’t we just say the top four was clear? What does USC have to be upset about?

The Trojans’ ranking is fine. They’re the top-ranked one-loss team. The problem is, with the committee putting Penn State at No. 8, the margin of error for USC in the Pac-12 championship game just shrunk substantially.

Step back and look at the résumés. USC now has wins over No. 15 Oregon State, No. 17 UCLA and No. 21 Notre Dame. Its lone loss came by a point to No. 11 Utah. That’s a really solid sales pitch to the committee.

Ohio State’s sales pitch? A less impressive win over Notre Dame and a road victory over Penn State.

With both teams 11-1, there’s no question who should be No. 4. But assume USC loses again to Utah in the Pac-12 title game, while Ohio State sits home and watches. What happens then? Would the committee really punish the Trojans for playing an extra game and put the Buckeyes into the playoff?

The best case for doing that would be simple: Ohio State beat the No. 8 team in the country on the road. USC wouldn’t have a win that good. And it might be a valid enough argument, except for this one small flaw: Who has Penn State beaten? The answer is… no one in this top 25. The Nittany Lions’ best win came in Week 1 against Purdue in a game in which they trailed into the final minute of action. Every other team ranked in the top nine has at least two wins over other teams in the top 25.

So, if it comes down to Ohio State’s win over Penn State pushing the Buckeyes into the top four next week, it’ll be an awfully thin margin that got them there.


2. Tennessee Volunteers (ranked seventh)

Tennessee beat Alabama. Tennessee beat LSU by 27 points, and LSU also beat Alabama. Tennessee has the same record as Alabama, and both losses were to teams Alabama didn’t have to play (one to the No. 1 team in the country and one to the No. 19 team in the country). So, why is it that the Volunteers are still ranked behind Alabama? The committee has essentially determined the loss of QB Hendon Hooker requires downgrading the Volunteers entirely. Given that Tennessee might have the best backup QB in the country, that seems like a bold assumption.

3. Troy Trojans (unranked)

The committee has decided the winner of the American Athletic championship game will go to the New Year’s Six, and if the winner is Tulane, it’s tough to argue against it. But UCF? A team that lost to ECU by 21? A team that lost at home to Navy? A team that needed a touchdown with 20 seconds to play last week to beat woeful USF? Why exactly are the Knights in serious contention for a New Year’s Six bowl over a Troy team with a better record, a nine-game winning streak, and far more forgivable losses? The Trojans’ lone defeats came in Week 1 against an Ole Miss team that was ranked all season until this poll, and a road defeat on a last-second Hail Mary at Appalachian State. Meanwhile, Troy has solid wins over Western Kentucky and South Alabama and can add another in the Sun Belt title game against Coastal Carolina this week. That Troy isn’t even in the discussion is a massive oversight. — David M. Hale

How a 12-team playoff would look

Everyone with the power to expand the College Football Playoff wants the field to grow to 12 teams in time for the 2024 season.

But currently, expansion is scheduled to begin in 2026. So while discussions continue on how to move up the timeline, we’re taking a look at how a 12-team playoff would look today based on the already-determined model released by the commissioners and presidents.

The field will be composed of the selection committee’s six highest-ranked conference champions and its next six highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top seeds and a first-round bye. The other eight teams will play in the first round, with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds on campus or at another site of their choice.

Here’s what the playoff would look like if the 12-team format were in place today:

Seeds with byes

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC

Remaining seeds
(conference champs in bold)

5. Ohio State
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Clemson
10. Kansas State
11. Utah
12. Tulane

First-round games

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Ohio State
No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Kansas State at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Penn State

Quarterfinal games

No. 9 Clemson-No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Georgia
No. 10 Kansas State-No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Michigan
No. 11 Utah-No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 TCU
No. 12 Tulane-No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 USC

Top 6 résumés

No. 1 Georgia

Record: 12-0 | SOS: 47| SOR: No. 3
Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee
Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18


No. 2 Michigan

Record: 12-0 | SOS: 39 | SOR: 2
Biggest win: Nov. 26 at Ohio State, 45-23
Last playoff appearance: 2022 Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11


No. 3 TCU

Record: 12-0 | SOS: 35 | SOR: 1
Biggest win: Nov. 12 at Texas, 17-10
Last playoff appearance: Never


No. 4 USC

Record: 11-1| SOS: 57| SOR: 6
Biggest win: Nov. 26 vs. Notre Dame, 38-27
Last playoff appearance: Never


No. 5 Ohio State

Record: 11-1 | SOS: 34 | SOR: No. 4
Biggest win: Oct. 29 at Penn State, 44-31
Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP National Championship: No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24


No. 6 Alabama

Record: 10-2 | SOS: 8| SOR: 5
Biggest win: Sept. 10 at Texas, 20-19
Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National Championship: No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18

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L.A.’s Glasnow joins Snell on IL with similar injury

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L.A.'s Glasnow joins Snell on IL with similar injury

LOS ANGELES — Tyler Glasnow was put on the injured list Monday with what the Los Angeles Dodgers described as shoulder inflammation, joining fellow frontline starter Blake Snell, who has been sidelined by a similar injury.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Glasnow’s right shoulder is structurally sound but is also dealing with what Roberts called “overall body soreness.”

Glasnow gave up back-to-back homers in Sunday’s first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates, then was removed from the game after experiencing discomfort while warming up for the second. Afterward, Glasnow expressed frustration at his constant string of injuries and speculated that his latest ailment might stem from the mechanical adjustments he made to improve the health of his elbow.

Glasnow sat out the 2½ months of last season — including the playoffs — with what was initially diagnosed as an elbow sprain, a big reason why the Dodgers were relegated to only three starting pitchers in their march toward a World Series title. Now, he is one of eight starting pitchers on the Dodgers’ injured list.

One of those arms, Tony Gonsolin, will be activated Wednesday to make his first major league start in 20 months. But the Dodgers are short enough on pitching that they’ll have to stage a bullpen game the day before.

“Pitching is certainly volatile,” said Roberts, who added journeyman right-hander Noah Davis to the roster in Glasnow’s place. “We experienced it last year and essentially every year. I think the thing that’s probably most disconcerting is the bullpen leading Major League Baseball in innings. When you’re talking about the long season, the starters are built up to go take those innings down. That’s sort of where my head is at as far as trying to make sure we don’t redline these guys in the pen.”

Dodgers relievers entered Monday’s series opener against the Miami Marlins having accumulated 121⅓ innings, 7⅔ more than the Chicago White Sox, who are already on a 122-loss pace.

Glasnow and Snell aren’t expected to be out for a prolonged period, but their timetables are uncertain. Clayton Kershaw could return before the end of May, but Shohei Ohtani might not serve as a two-way player until after the All-Star break. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki could temporarily assume a traditional five-day schedule, as opposed to the once-a-week routine they’ve been following, but the Dodgers have only four starting pitchers on their active roster.

Glasnow, 31, is in his 10th year in the big leagues but has never compiled more than 134 innings in a season, a mark he set last year. The Dodgers acquired him from the Tampa Bay Rays and subsequently signed him to a five-year, $136.56 million extension in December 2023 with the thought that his injury issues might be behind him.

“Tyler said it — very frustrating,” Roberts said. We’re just trying to get to the bottom of it.”

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Altuve asks out of Astros’ top spot, then homers

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Altuve asks out of Astros' top spot, then homers

HOUSTON — Jose Altuve asked manager Joe Espada to move him out of the leadoff spot and into the second hole for the Houston Astros. The reason? He wanted more time to get to the dugout from left field.

Altuve hit a two-run homer in the Astros’ 8-5 win over the Detroit Tigers on Monday while playing left in 2025 for the first time in his career after spending his first 14 MLB seasons at second base. “I just need like 10 more seconds,” he said.

The 34-year-old Altuve made the transition to the outfield this season after the trade of Kyle Tucker and the departure of Alex Bregman shook up Houston’s lineup.

Jeremy Peña batted in the leadoff spot for Monday night’s game and went 2-for-4 with two runs scored. Altuve didn’t suggest that Peña be the one to take his leadoff spot, and on Monday, he had two hits and three RBIs while batting second for the first time since 2023.

“I just told Joe that maybe he can hit me second some games at some point, and he did it today,” Altuve said. “I just need like that little extra time to come from left field, and he decided to put Jeremy [there].”

Peña is hitting .265 with three homers and 11 RBIs. He batted first in Sunday’s 7-3 win over Kansas City — with Altuve getting a day off — and had two hits and three RBIs. He added two more hits and scored twice Monday.

“I enjoy playing baseball,” Altuve said. “I love playing, especially with these guys. I like being in the lineup. In the end it doesn’t really matter if I play second or left, if I lead off or not. I just want to be in the lineup and help this team to win.”

Along with giving him a little extra time to get ready to bat, Altuve thinks the athletic Peña batting leadoff could boost a lineup that has struggled at times this season.

“Jeremy is one of those guys that has been playing really good for our team,” Altuve said. “He’s taking really good at-bats. He’s very explosive and dynamic on the bases, so when he gets on base a lot of things can happen. Maybe I can bunt him over so Yordan [Alvarez] can drive him in.”

Altuve is a nine-time All-Star. The 2017 AL MVP is hitting .282 with four homers and 12 RBIs this season.

Espada said that he and Altuve often share ideas about the team and that they had been talking about this as a possibility for a while before he made the move.

“He’s always looking for ways to get everyone involved, and he’s playing left field, comes in, maybe give him a little bit more time to get ready between at-bats, just a lot of things that went into this decision,” Espada said. “He’s been around, he knows himself better than anyone else here, so hopefully this could create some opportunities for everyone here, and we can score some runs.”

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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Lightning’s Hagel leaves G4 loss after high hit

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Lightning's Hagel leaves G4 loss after high hit

Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brandon Hagel left his team’s 4-2 loss to the host Florida Panthers in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round series on Monday night after a high hit from defenseman Aaron Ekblad that wasn’t penalized.

With less than 9 minutes left in the second period, Hagel played the puck out of the Tampa Bay zone near the boards. Ekblad skated in on him and delivered a hit with his right forearm that made contact with Hagel’s head, shoving him down in the process.

The back of Hagel’s head hit the ice. He was pulled from the game for concussions concerns. Ekblad did not receive a penalty on the play.

The Lightning trailed the Panthers 1-0 at the time of the hit, but Mitchell Chaffee and Erik Cernak scored two goals in 11 seconds after Hagel left the game to give Tampa Bay a 2-1 lead. When the teams returned for the third period, Hagel was not on the bench.

The Panthers rallied in the third, as Ekblad, Seth Jones and Carter Verhaeghe scored to give Florida a 3-1 series lead. Game 5 is in Tampa on Wednesday.

Game 4 saw Hagel return to the Tampa Bay lineup after he served a one-game suspension for interference on Florida captain Aleksander Barkov in Game 2. The NHL ruled the Barkov wasn’t eligible to be hit and that Hagel made head contact with him. It was the first suspension of this career.

Hagel was one of the best two-way wingers in the league this season, with 35 goals and 55 assists in 82 games for the Lightning.

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