Elon Musk has confirmed Tesla Semi’s efficiency at 1.7 kWh per mile, which means it has a roughly 900 kWh battery pack. It’s an important piece of information, but there are still more questions to answer before Tesla Semi can officially be a truly disruptive product.
At the event, Tesla described an electric truck that could truly disrupt the trucking industry.
However, we noted that there were a few pieces of information that Tesla omitted from the event that could really be major difference makers.
The two main ones are the weight of the actual truck and its price:
After digesting yesterday’s Tesla Semi presentation, Tesla has potentially a massively disrupting product on its hands, but it omitted two things that need to be confirmed to make it official: weight of the tractor and its price. I wish I could ask Tesla or Elon about it…
The trucking industry is all about the economics of moving products by the pound. The main thing that will drive that is the cost of operation per mile, which is mainly affected by the vehicle’s efficiency.
Tesla has already reported an efficiency under 2 kWh per mile which is impressive, but not exactly clear when you are trying to determine your cost per mile for electricity.
On Twitter last night, Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed that it is 1.7 kWh per mile. That’s more precise, and truck operators can input their electricity rates to get an idea of fuel costs and savings compared to diesel.
It also gives us an idea of the Tesla Semi’s battery pack. It’s not perfect since we don’t have the exact range of the truck. At 500 miles, which Tesla claims, that’s 850 kWh, but the pack generally has a buffer, and based on the 500-mile trip it completed, it looks like the electric truck might have some more in it.
Now what we need to know is how much cargo can a Tesla Semi carry. A class 8 truck fully loaded needs to weigh 80,000 pounds or less as per regulations, but electric trucks have been allowed an extra 2,000 pounds.
In order to know that, we need to know the weight of the truck itself. You have to deduct the weight of the trailer, which is about 10,000 pounds for a 53-foot trailer, and the weight of the truck from the 82,000-pound limit.
Tesla says that it will roughly have the same capacity as a diesel truck, but diesel tractors have a wide range of weight from roughly 12,000 to 25,000 pounds. The Tesla Semi’s power would certainly need to be compared more to the higher end of that range, but at the end of the day, trucking companies want as much cargo capacity as possible.
The automaker hasn’t confirmed the weight of the Tesla Semi, but we can deduce from its load test with concrete blocks that it is around 27,000 pounds, but that’s unconfirmed at this point.
That’s not the best, but it would still give the Tesla Semi the capacity to move about 45,000 pounds of cargo, which still makes the vehicle super useful. Also, it is safe to assume that the number will improve greatly over the years as battery technology improves.
But nonetheless, it would be useful if Tesla could confirm the weight of the Tesla Semi.
Then we need the actual price of the truck. In 2017, Tesla said the trucks would be $150,000, $180,000, and $200,000, depending on the model, but those prices are expected to have changed over the last five years.
Those prices with that capacity would make the Tesla Semi revolutionary since it would pay itself back in about three years just from fuel savings in most markets, but we don’t know that for a fact without the official price.
Electrek’s Take
This is pretty wild. We are super close to being able to confirm that the Tesla Semi can change the entire paradigm of the trucking industry, but Tesla just needs to release a few more pieces of information to make it happen.
The fact that Tesla doesn’t let the press into its events and only superfans is really a bad look for the company at this point. Yes, the press can be annoying, even malicious in some cases, and I don’t say they should let those people in, but there are also plenty of people whose goal is just to keep their readers as best informed as possible, and they would ask important questions at those events that need answering – questions that a lot of fans don’t bother asking. Everything Musk says is good enough for them.
I can’t ask any of those questions because Tesla doesn’t have a PR department, and the only official comments you can get these days are from Musk on Twitter, where he blocks me and surrounds himself with sycophants:
This is basically confirmed now. Here’s the chronology:
1- Elon announced a wave spam accounts being banned.
2- Several of his top supporters get banned because they are indistinguishable from bots by the algo.
This is just not how a company that aims to be transparent should operate. And obviously, I’m not talking about trade secrets here.
Anyway, the rant is over. I hope Tesla is going to release that information soon, and if it is on the right side, I’ll be the first to celebrate Tesla revolutionizing the trucking industry.
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Renewables increased their output by almost 10% and provided nearly a quarter of US electrical generation in 2024, according to newly released US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
Solar was still No 1
Solar remained the US’s fastest-growing source of electricity in 2024. Utility-scale and “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar combined increased by 26.9% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to the SUN DAY Campaign, which reviewed EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report data.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 32%, while small-scale solar increased by 15.3%. Together, solar was nearly 7% (6.91%) of total US electrical generation for the year.
In December alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar expanded by 42% compared to December 2023.
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Small-scale solar (systems <1 MW) accounted for 27.9% of all solar generation and provided 1.9% of the US electricity supply in 2024. In fact, small-scale solar PV generates over five times more electricity than utility-scale geothermal.
2024 renewables milestones
The electrical output of US wind farms in 2024 grew by 7.7% year-over-year. Wind remains the largest source of electrical generation among renewable energy sources, accounting for 10.3% of the US total.
Wind and solar combined provided more than 17.2% of US electrical generation during 2024. The mix of all renewables – wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, geothermal – provided 24.2% of total US electricity production in 2024 compared to 23.2% of electrical output a year earlier.
Between January and December, electrical generation by renewables grew by 9.6% compared to the same period the year before – nearly three times the growth rate of natural gas (3.3%) and over 10 times that of nuclear power (0.9%).
In December alone, electrical generation by renewables grew by 10.1% compared to December 2023.
Wind and solar together produced 15.9% more electricity than coal and came close to matching nuclear power’s share of total generation (17.2% vs. 17.8%).
The mix of renewables reinforced their position as the second largest source of electrical generation, behind only natural gas.
“Renewable energy sources now provide a quarter of the nation’s electricity,” said the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Consequently, the rash efforts of the Trump Administration to undermine wind, solar, and other renewables will have serious negative consequences for the nation’s electricity supply and the economy.”
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However, we suspected that this would not be “unsupervised self-driving’ in customer vehicles like Tesla has been promising since 2016, but an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for ride-hailing services, much like Waymo has been doing for years.
With the focus on Austin in June, Tesla stopped talking about California, which was announced to happen at the same time as Texas last year.
Now, Bloomberg reports that Tesla has applied for a ride-hailing permit in California:
The electric vehicle manufacturer applied late last year for what’s known as a transportation charter-party carrier permit from the California Public Utilities Commission, according to documents viewed by Bloomberg. That classification means Tesla would own and control the fleet of vehicles.
But this application is for a regular ride-hailing service, like Uber, albeit for an internal fleet rather than vehicles operated by customers.
Tesla has yet to apply for a permit to operate driverless vehicles:
In its communications with California officials, Tesla discussed driver’s license information and drug-testing coordination, suggesting the company intends to use human drivers, at least initially. Tesla is applying for the same type of permit used by Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s robotaxi business. While Tesla has approval to test autonomous vehicles with a safety driver in California, it doesn’t have, nor has applied for, a driverless testing or deployment permit from the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles, according to a spokesperson.
Musk claimed that he believes Tesla will be able to achieve “unsupervised self-driving” in California by “the end of the year”, but he has claimed that every year for the past decade.
This is just a step for Tesla to test ride-hailing services ahead of autonomy. A nothing burger, really, since ride-hailing has obviously been solved already by several companies, Lyft, Uber, Didi, etc.
What needs to be solved is autonomous driving.
As I have been saying for the last year, I am sure Tesla will be able to launch an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for a ride-hailing service in California later this year like it plans to do in Austin in June, but that’s nowhere near what Tesla promised since 2016.
It’s a moving of the goal post, and it’s basically just proving that Tesla is able to do something similar to Waymo – 5 years later.
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The feature is called “Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads” as Tesla seems more cautious about using the term “Full Self-Driving” in China, but it is a feature known for being in the FSD package everywhere else.
Tesla has been facing a lot of issues in releasing FSD features in China. The automaker has been limited in its neural net training due to restrictions about data coming in and out of the country, and it found it difficult to adapt to regulations regarding bus lanes and other China-specific road rules.
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CEO Elon Musk warned that FSD in China would be a problem during Tesla’s earnings call last month due to the different rules. He mentioned bus lanes as an example:
By the way, were about the biggest challenges in making FSD work in China is the bus lanes are very complicated. And there’s like literally like hours of the day that you’re allowed to be there and not be there. And then if you accidentally go in that bus lane at the wrong time, you get an automatic ticket instantly. So, it’s kind of a big deal, bus lanes in China.
The automated ticketing system is not just for bus lanes and Tesla owners are learning about it the hard way.
Tesla owners have been testing out the features in live streams on social media and some of them are reporting getting numerous tickets for using FSD.
For example, this Tesla driver received 7 tickets in the space of a single drive because the FSD drove in bike lanes and made illegal maneuvers:
Car News China tracked several live streams and customer feedback on Chinese social media, and the consensus appears to be that it’s “pretty good, but with lots of bugs”.
The drivers are particularly impressed with how “natural” FSD drives, but they also noted that it still
Where the system lacks is the understanding of local traffic rules (such as no use of shoulder/bike lanes on turns, similar to the bus lane rules that Elon talked about in the most recent earnings call) and the sporadic use of wrong lanes (e.g. going straight in a left or right turn only lane) or navigation showing the vehicle in one lane when in fact it’s in another or wrong perception of objects (red balloons as traffic lights). Many of the live streams counted the number of traffic violations from the vehicle and the number of points that would have been taken off or licenses suspended (12 points = suspension) as a result.
Chinese media websites are now getting flooded with Tesla vehicles running red traffic lights, failing to recognize green lights, and driving on restricted lanes, like the video above.
The report also highlights how Tesla is facing strong competition in ADAS in China, with competitors like Nio, Xpeng, BYD, and others launching competitive products, which is not necessarily the case in other markets for Tesla.
Electrek’s Take
I feel like this is likely going to result in bad PR for Tesla in China. You can’t have drivers losing their licenses because FSD doesn’t recognize bike lanes.
Now, of course, Tesla will say that the driver remains responsible, but I don’t know how good Tesla’s messaging is on that front in China.
It’s going to be an interesting story to track in the coming months.
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