US intelligence experts have said they expect a “reduced tempo” in fighting in Ukraine to last several months, with both sides looking to prepare for a counter-offensive after the winter.
The Director of National Intelligence said that while this might be the case, there is no evidence of a reduced Ukrainian will to resist and morale hasn’t faded, despite persistent Russian attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure.
Avril Haines told the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in California: “We’re seeing a kind of a reduced tempo already of the conflict … and we expect that’s likely to be what we see in the coming months”.
She added that both militaries would be looking to refit and supply for a counter-offensive after the winter, but said there is a “fair amount of scepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be in fact prepared to do that”, adding that prospects for Ukraine were more optimistic.
Ms Haines said Moscow’s aim to destroy Ukraine’s critical infrastructure was partly to undermine the will of Ukrainians to resist but added that we are not seeing “any evidence of that being undermined right now”.
Intense Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities have resulted in emergency blackouts and water and electricity shortages, affecting millions of people across the country.
As winter sets in and temperatures drop, Ukrainian officials have appealed to allies to issue monetary and physical aid including generators.
Despite significant strategic setbacks for Russia, including Moscow’s withdrawal from the southern city of Kherson in November, it is continuing its efforts to dig in for the winter and to continue attacks on other regions.
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3:17
‘The resilience of Ukraine is key’
Not clear Putin knows how challenged his forces are
Ms Haines said she thought Vladimir Putin had been surprised that his military has not accomplished more in the war.
She said: “I do think he is becoming more informed of the challenges that the military faces in Russia. But it’s still not clear to us that he has a full picture at this stage of just how challenged they are … we see shortages of ammunition, for morale, supply issues, logistics, a whole series of concerns that they’re facing.”
In its daily intelligence briefing, the UK Ministry of Defence said on Saturday that Moscow is continuing to invest a “large element of their overall military effort and firepower” along the front line near the town of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.
The Ukrainian town has faced Russian attacks since August.
Russia wants “quick peace” in Ukraine and London is at the “head of those resisting” it, the Russian ambassador to the UK has told Sky News.
In an interview on The World With Yalda Hakim, Andrei Kelin accused the UK, France and other European nations of not wanting to end the war in Ukraine.
“We are prepared to negotiate and to talk,” he said. “We have our position. If we can strike a negotiated settlement… we need a very serious approach to that and a very serious agreement about all of that – and about security in Europe.”
Image: Russian ambassador Andrei Kelin speaks to Yalda Hakim
US President Donald Trump held a surprise phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin last month, shocking America’s European allies. He went on to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and relations between the pair were left in tatters after a meeting in the Oval Office descended into a shouting match.
Days later, the US leader suspended military aid to Ukraine, though there were signs the relationship between the two leaders appeared to be on the mend following the contentious White House meeting last week, with Mr Trump saying he “appreciated” a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying Kyiv was ready to sign a minerals agreement with Washington “at any time”.
In his interview with Sky News’ Yalda Hakim, Mr Kelin said he was “not surprised” the US has changed its position on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022, claiming Mr Trump “knows the history of the conflict”.
“He knows history and is very different from European leaders,” he added.
I’ve interviewed the Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, on a number of occasions, at times the conversation has been tense and heated.
But today, I found a diplomat full of confidence and cautiously optimistic.
The optics of course have suddenly changed in Russia’s favour since Donald Trump was elected.
I asked him if Russia couldn’t believe its luck. “I would not exaggerate this too much,” he quipped.
Mr Kelin also “categorically” ruled out European troops on the ground and said the flurry of diplomatic activity and summits over the course of the past few weeks is not because Europeans want to talk to Moscow but because they want to present something to Mr Trump.
He appeared to relish the split the world is witnessing in transatlantic relations.
Of course the ambassador remained cagey about the conversations that have taken place between President Trump and Vladimir Putin.
There is no doubt however that Russia is welcoming what Mr Kelin says is a shift in the world order.
Peace deal ‘should recognise Russian advances’
The Russian ambassador said Moscow had told Washington it believed its territorial advances in Ukraine “should be recognised” as part of any peace deal.
“What we will need is a new Ukraine as a neutral, non-nuclear state,” he said. “The territorial situation should be recognised. These territories have been included in our constitution and we will continue to push that all forces of the Ukrainian government will leave these territories.”
Asked if he thought the Americans would agree to give occupied Ukrainian land to Russia, he said: “I don’t think we have discussed it seriously. [From] what I have read, the Americans actually understand the reality.”
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31:20
In full: Russian ambassador’s interview with Sky’s Yalda Hakim
Moscow rules out NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine
He said Russia “categorically ruled out” the prospect of NATO peacekeepers on the ground in Ukraine – a proposal made by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron – saying “they have no rules of engagement” and so would just be “sitting in cities”.
“It’s senseless” and “not for reality,” Mr Kelin added.
He branded the temporary ceasefire raised by Mr Zelenskyy “a crazy idea”, and said: “We will never accept it and they perfectly are aware of that.
“We will only accept the final version, when we are going to sign it. Until then things are very shaky.”
He added: “We’re trying to find a resolution on the battlefield, until the US administration suggest something constructive.”
The United States is “finally destroying” the international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia “halfway”, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has warned.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Washington’s recent actions in relation to Moscow could lead to the collapse of NATO– with Europe becoming Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s next target.
“The failure to qualify actions of Russiaas an aggression is a huge challenge for the entire world and Europe, in particular,” he told a conference at the Chatham House think tank.
“We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order.”
Image: Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Pic: Reuters
Mr Zaluzhnyi, who took over as Kyiv’s ambassador to London in 2024 following three years as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, also warned that the White House had “questioned the unity of the whole Western world” – suggesting NATO could cease to exist as a result.
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But on the same day, the US president ordered a sudden freeze on shipments of US military aid to Ukraine,and Washington has since paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv and halted cyber operations against Russia.
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Mr Zaluzhnyi said the pause in cyber operations and an earlier decision by the US to oppose a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine were “a huge challenge for the entire world”.
He added that talks between the US and Russia – “headed by a war criminal” – showed the White House “makes steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway”, warning Moscow’s next target “could be Europe”.
The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.
Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.
Image: A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.
More on Rohingyas
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Jaker is just 19.
We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.
He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.
They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.
“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”
And he says the impact has been deadly.
“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”
Image: Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch
Image: An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
The situation in Cox’s is desperate.
People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.
In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.
Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.
And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.