Standard Chartered predicts that bitcoin could fall to $5,000 in 2023 as part of their research on potential market surprises next year.
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Bitcoin could drop to $5,000 next year in a market surprise that investors are under-pricing, according to Standard Chartered.
If that level is reached, it would mark a roughly 70% plunge from Monday’s price of just over $17,000 for one bitcoin.
In a note entitled “The financial-market surprises of 2023,” Standard Chartered outlined a number of possible scenarios that “we feel are under-priced by the markets.”
“Yields plunge along with technology shares, and while the Bitcoin sell-off decelerates, the damage has been done. More and more crypto firms and exchanges find themselves with insufficient liquidity, leading to further bankruptcies and a collapse in investor confidence in digital assets,” Eric Robertsen, global head of research at Standard Chartered Bank, said in the note Sunday.
Robertsen said the somewhat extreme scenarios “have a non-zero probability of occurring in the year ahead, and … fall materially outside of the market consensus or our own baseline views.”
Bitcoin has already fallen more than 60% this year after a string of high-profile collapses of projects and companies plagued the industry. The latest and biggest casualty is cryptocurrency exchange FTX which has filed for bankruptcy. Contagion from the fallout of FTX continues to spread through the market.
The drop in bitcoin’s price will also coincide with a rally in gold, Robertsen said, arguing the yellow metal could potentially rally 30% to $2,250 per ounce “as cryptocurrencies fall further and more crypto firms succumb to liquidity squeezes and investor withdrawals.”
Robertsen says gold could re-establish itself as a safe haven, with investors flocking to the commodity for stability in times of market volatility.
“The 2023 resurgence in gold [also] comes as equities resume their bear market and the correlation between equity and bond prices shifts back to negative,” he added.
Standard Chartered’s view is not the only bearish outlook on bitcoin. Veteran investor Mark Mobius told CNBC last week that he sees bitcoin falling to $10,000 in 2023 due to rising interest rates and tighter monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
However, there are still those who are bullish on bitcoin. Venture Capitalist Tim Draper told CNBC on Saturday that he thinks bitcoin can hit $250,000 next year.
A view of Oracle headquarters on September 11, 2023 in Redwood Shores, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
The apprehension investors have surrounding Oracle has spilled over from manifesting in its stock price — which has fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high on Sept. 10 — to affecting its projects.
Asset management firm Blue Owl Capital reportedly pulled out from Oracle’s $10 billion data center project over unfavorable debt terms, according to the Financial Times, as concerns about the tech giant’s high level of debt mount.
The latest development adds fuel to worries that Oracle could delay the completion of data centers for OpenAI, which were first flagged by Bloomberg on Friday, though the cloud company has denied the report.
Despite the recent pullback in artificial intelligence stocks, the Bank of America thinks “the AI trade may still have room to run into 2026” — with the important caveat that shares going up does not mean a bubble isn’t forming.
“In our view, such progression validates our thesis that a larger AI bubble continues to build,” analysts at Bank of America wrote.
The trouble, as always, is pinpointing the exact moment before the bubble pops — if that’s even possible.
China’s chipmakers are challenging Nvidia. MetaX Integrated Circuits, a Chinese semiconductor firm, soared nearly 700% in its market debut on Wednesday. It’s a sign of how investors are growing enthusiastic over Chinese chipmakers and their progress in catching up with Nvidia.
Netflix deal is ‘superior’ to Paramount’s, Warner Bros. says. Samuel Di Piazza, chair of the Warner Bros. board, separately told CNBC on Wednesday that the board would have appreciated more involvement from Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison’s father, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison.
U.S. approves arms sale to Taiwan, reportedly the biggest ever. The $11.15 billion transaction, which was given the green light on Thursday, reportedly comprises HIMARS rocket artillery systems, self-propelled howitzer systems and Javelin and TOW anti-tank missiles, according to Reuters.
[PRO] One chart is worrying Michael Burry. “The Big Short” investor pointed to a graphic produced by Wells Fargo that showed a phenomenon in U.S. households that has only happened twice before and preceded bear markets that “lasted years.”
And finally…
People walk past a Starbucks Reserve in the Huangpu district in Shanghai on April 11, 2025.
Hector Retamal | Afp | Getty Images
Correction: An earlier version of this report stated the wrong date of the U.S. government’s approval of its arms sale to Taiwan. This has been rectified.
TOKYO, JAPAN – FEBRUARY 03: SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son delivers a speech during an event titled “Transforming Business through AI” in Tokyo, Japan, on February 03, 2025. SoftBank and OpenAI announced that they have agreed a partnership to set up a joint venture for artificial intelligence services in Japan.
Japanese tech stocks took a tumble on Thursday as AI infrastructure spending worries on Wall Street crossed the ocean into the Asian markets, with AI-related stocks declining.
Softbank Group Corp was among the top losers in the benchmark Nikkei 225, falling as much as 7.25%, with the index leading losses in Asia, down 1.23%. The group pared some losses and was last trading 3% lower.
This decline comes as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.81% overnight, dragged by losses in Oracle, Broadcom, Nvidia and other AI plays.
The losses in Oracle came after the Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Blue Owl Capital’s plans to finance the cloud infrastructure company’s $10 billion Michigan data center had stalled. The company last week had refuted a report that said it had delayed some projects for AI major OpenAI to 2028.
Tech-focused SoftBank has seen sharp volatility in its stock over the past month as fears over AI-related spending have gripped the market.
At the start of the year, the group had revealed plans to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure in the U.S. along with OpenAI, Oracle and other partners, and in September it announced five new U.S. AI data center sites under Stargate, OpenAI’s overarching AI infrastructure platform.
Jesper Koll, expert director at Tokyo-based financial services firm Monex Group, said much of what goes into data centers, power centers, and AI hardware enablers is “Made in Japan, and can only be made in Japan.” That makes Japanese tech, especially AI-related stocks more vulnerable to any worries around U.S. tech spending.
On Wednesday, Japan’s trade numbers showed that exports of electrical machinery jumped 7.4%, and semiconductor-related exports surged 13% year on year. Koll said the U.S.-led boom in tech spending was translating into growing exports of specialized machinery and equipment.
Losses were less pronounced in South Korean chip heavyweight Samsung Electronics at 0.93%, while SK Hynix reversed course to gain 0.73%. Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, was marginally down.
A view of Oracle’s headquarters in Redwood Shores, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
The apprehension investors have surrounding Oracle has spilled over from manifesting in its stock price — which has fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high on Sept. 10 — to affecting its projects.
Asset management firm Blue Owl Capital reportedly pulled out from Oracle’s $10 billion data center project over unfavorable debt terms, according to the Financial Times, as concerns about the tech giant’s high level of debt mount.
The latest development adds fuel to worries that Oracle could delay the completion of data centers for OpenAI, which were first flagged by Bloomberg on Friday, though the cloud company has denied the report.
Despite the recent pullback in artificial intelligence stocks, the Bank of America thinks “the AI trade may still have room to run into 2026” — with the important caveat that shares going up does not mean a bubble isn’t forming.
“In our view, such progression validates our thesis that a larger AI bubble continues to build,” analysts at Bank of America wrote.
The trouble, as always, is pinpointing the exact moment before the bubble pops — if that’s even possible.
— CNBC’s Jaures Yip contributed to this report.
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And finally…
A projected illumination marking the 75th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration, on the Grossmarkthalle building at the European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, on May 9, 2025.
Investors are gearing up for the last interest-rate decisions of 2025, with four of Europe’s central banks announcing their monetary policies and macroeconomic outlooks on Thursday.
The European Central Bank, Bank of England, Riksbank and Norges Bank are all meeting, but only one of them is expected to change its rate.