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For the first time since 2019, baseball’s winter meetings are back!

All signs point to an action-packed week of rumors, signings and trades in San Diego — and we’ve got it all covered for you right here, from our MLB experts’ predictions going into the meetings to the latest updates and analysis as the moves go down.

When will Aaron Judge decide between staying with the New York Yankees and going to the San Francisco Giants or another suitor? Which of the four star shortstops in this year’s free agent class will find a home first? And will Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon sign to lead your team’s rotation before the meetings end after Jacob deGrom made waves by joining the Rangers on Friday night? Check out our predictions now and refresh often for the latest as the week unfolds.

Key links: Hot stove survey | Predictions | Impact of new rules | Tracker

Trades we want to see | Top free agents | Passan’s preview | FA grades


Winter meetings predictions

Who will be the biggest name to sign in San Diego?

Bradford Doolittle: Jeff Passan recently wrote that there is a good possibility Aaron Judge’s free agency will end before the winter meetings conclude. Judge is the biggest name on the free agent market. So you don’t have to be Aristotle to see the logic in declaring that Judge will be the biggest name to sign.

Buster Olney: Judge’s situation is a lot like that of deGrom — he’s going to get a whopper contract, as the top free agent on the board, but there aren’t a lot of suitors. It seems likely he has already heard the best offer he’s going to hear from the Giants, and from the Yankees. Agents who are not involved in the negotiations are predicting he’ll do something in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Joon Lee: Judge. There’s going to be a massive domino effect after he signs and likely sets the market for the biggest contract. The Yankees will have so much of their offseason plans shaped around the outcome of what happens with the slugger and how they approach spending money this offseason, especially with a fan base that is as impatient for a championship as they’ve ever been.

David Schoenfield: Judge makes sense. Because he actually has fewer teams in pursuit of his signature than some other marquee players, all he has to do is make a decision. His market is independent of everybody else, so while it can benefit players at other positions — like the four shortstops — to wait for the dominoes to start falling, there is no advantage for Judge to wait. And if it’s between just the Yankees and Giants, that decision can come in San Diego.

Jesse Rogers: Justin Verlander. He doesn’t seem like a “wait until February” guy. His market isn’t necessarily tied to Judge. Pitchers are beginning to sign, and Verlander should sooner rather than later. He’s also unique compared to those other pitchers in that he’s older, which means he’s probably not a guy looking for opt-outs and things of that nature.

What is the one rumor that will dominate the week?

Olney: Verlander’s situation, which might mirror what happened with Trevor Bauer’s free agency a couple of years ago, with a showdown between the Dodgers and the Mets. He’s a future Hall of Famer and coming off a Cy Young Award, and will have an immediate impact — and both of these teams need him.

The Mets just lost another future Hall Famer in deGrom and have massive holes in their rotation, and could really use a plug-and-play star — and Verlander’s contract structure (high salary, short-term deal) fits the Dodgers’ preferences. With Bauer, the Mets thought they had the right-hander signed before the Dodgers swooped in at the end to pluck Bauer away; both sides will be well aware of that history as they go through the process.

There is a lot of conversation in front offices about how Max Scherzer and Verlander might not be the greatest of friends, and whether that factor might impact the Mets’ pursuit of Verlander, but remember — in Buck Showalter’s days with the Diamondbacks, he managed Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, Hall of Fame caliber pitchers who weren’t close but naturally pushed each other.

Doolittle: Of all the shortstop-related scuttlebutt, the Twins’ pursuit of Carlos Correa seems like the most advanced story thread. That suggests Correa could be the first domino to fall in the derby to land him, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson. Maybe it won’t mean Minnesota ends up holding a big news conference to announce that Correa will return to the Twin Cities — or maybe it will. But I could definitely see Correa discussions looming over the meetings, not just because he’s a star player in his own right, but because his signing could set off a chain reaction through the rest of the market.

Schoenfield: I’ll go with all the rumors surrounding the Mets. With three starters and their top two setup relievers from 2022 all in free agency, they have some big moves to make — which could possibly include a splash, like signing Verlander to replace deGrom atop their rotation. But they’ll need at least one more starting pitcher after that, maybe two, some relievers … oh, and a center fielder to replace Brandon Nimmo if he signs elsewhere. The Mets say they want to hold on to their prospects, and while Francisco Alvarez is untouchable, they might have to consider some trades as well.

Lee: I’m so curious what’s going to happen with the Xander Bogaerts situation in Boston. The Red Sox’s front office — both privately and publicly — has dramatically changed its tone in its willingness to give him a big contract. While there are certainly business reasons to not sign Bogaerts — especially given the questions surrounding how long he will remain a shortstop — the fan base has been growing angrier at the organization regarding the attitude around signing star players, which started with the Mookie Betts trade. If Bogaerts leaves, Boston will need to be aggressive in free agency to upgrade the team because patience in wearing thin among Red Sox Nation.

Rogers: No matter where you turn, the topic will undoubtedly find its way to Judge. Will he or won’t he leave New York? It’s not exactly the same storyline as Babe Ruth leaving the Red Sox for the Yankees — but it’s damn close.


Latest news, rumors, updates from San Diego

Monday, Dec. 5

Latest on the four top free agent shortstops

The shortstop market isn’t close to being figured out. With four players being sought after by up to 10 teams, it might take a while. But the deeper into the offseason we go, according to one executive, the less likely it becomes any of them will re-sign with their old teams. (The exception is Carlos Correa, who could sign back with the Twins as kind of an old team/new team re-signing). There’s no great indication who might sign first. — Jesse Rogers


Why Verlander could be the next big name to sign

There’s an expectation Verlander will sign soon now that deGrom is off the board. A majority of executives remain firm in their belief he’ll leave the Astros. — Rogers


How early starting pitcher signings have set the bar

The market ($11 million to $13 million per year) for the second tier of free agent pitchers has been set. The conversations now are revolving around total packages. Mike Clevinger got one year. Zach Eflin got three. Agents like the Eflin package, which totaled $40 million. — Rogers

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Unsettled playoff races? Another milestone for Ohtani? What to watch in MLB’s final weekend

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Unsettled playoff races? Another milestone for Ohtani? What to watch in MLB's final weekend

Travis d’Arnaud hit the biggest home of the season for the Atlanta Braves. Fans of the New York Mets are in a state of panic. Paul Skenes delivered two more scoreless innings to cap off his stunning rookie season with a 1.96 ERA. Saturday is in the books. We have one full day of the regular season left — plus the Braves-Mets doubleheader Monday.

Here’s what to watch, starting with the National League wild-card race, where the Braves now have a one-game lead over the Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks as the three teams battle for two spots.

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers shut out the Mets 6-0 on Saturday, handing the Mets their first three-game losing streak since Aug. 11. When the Braves beat the Royals 2-1 later, it dropped the Mets behind the Braves in the standings for the first time since Sept. 4.

The Mets will start David Peterson on Sunday. The lefty has allowed five runs in two of his past three starts, although he has generally been effective since July, with a 2.90 ERA over his past 15 starts. The Brewers are locked into the third seed and will certainly rest all their top relievers as they get ready for Tuesday’s wild-card series. Colin Rea gets the start for Milwaukee, but expect a heavy bullpen game with the secondary relievers getting the action.

The Mets used their top three starters in this series: Sean Manaea on Friday, Jose Quintana on Saturday and now Peterson. That means Luis Severino and Tylor Megill are the likely starters for Monday’s doubleheader. The Braves do have a righty-heavy lineup and have an OPS nearly 70 points higher against lefties, so at least the Mets will have their two right-handed starters going Monday.


Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves

The Braves beat the Royals on d’Arnaud’s walk-off home run. Reynaldo Lopez returned from the injured list to make his first start for Atlanta since Sept. 10 and allowed just two hits and one run in six innings. The 2024 All-Star finishes the season with a 2.00 ERA in 25 starts (although he didn’t pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title).

The Braves’ gamble to hold off on starting probable Cy Young winner Chris Sale until absolutely needed has paid off. Sale could have started Friday, but the Braves have said they were going to hold him back until facing potential elimination. With a one-game lead in the wild-card race, the earliest that now could come would be the second game of the doubleheader against the Mets. The best-case scenario, of course, is that they clinch before using Sale and having him ready for Game 1 of the wild-card series.

As of Saturday night, manager Brian Snitker said the team hadn’t decided on a Sunday starter. Charlie Morton would be the starter with the most rest, but the Braves might want to save him for the Mets. That could leave Grant Holmes to face a slumping Kansas City offense.

Remember as well: The Braves lead the season series 6-5 over the Mets, meaning the tiebreaker between the two teams is still up for grabs.


San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Padres blanked the Diamondbacks 5-0 on Saturday — the second shutout in four games for the high-powered Arizona attack and their fifth loss in six games as a wild-card spot that looked pretty safe a week ago is suddenly in jeopardy. Indeed, the key to remember here is the Diamondbacks lose the tiebreaker to both the Mets and Braves.

Sunday now feels like a must-win for Arizona. If they lose again, one win by the Mets on Sunday or in Monday’s doubleheader would eliminate the Diamondbacks.

With Zac Gallen in line to start the wild-card opener after pitching Wednesday, Brandon Pfaadt will start Sunday against Martin Perez. Pfaadt has been all over the place lately, getting knocked out in the third inning of his last start and in the second inning two starts ago, but sandwiched around a 12-strikeout game.


American League wild card

Lots of this was settled Friday night: First, before a boisterous crowd of 44,435 fans at Comerica Park, the Tigers beat the White Sox 4-1 to win their sixth straight game and clinch their first playoff spot since 2014. They had been tied with the Angels for the longest active playoff drought in the majors.

The Royals backed into their first postseason since 2015 when the Twins lost.

The Orioles clinched the fourth seed in beating Minnesota. The Tigers are one game up on the Royals for the fifth seed, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker in case they finish with the same record. The fifth seed will play at Baltimore while the sixth seed will play at Houston in the wild-card series (the higher seed gets all home games). The good news for the both the Tigers and Royals is they can save Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans for the first games of the wild-card series, rather than having to start them Sunday.


Battles for the best record and top seed

  • The Dodgers clinched both the top seed in the NL and the top seed overall (the fourth time in eight season the Dodgers finished with MLB’s best record). That leaves the Phillies as the No. 2 seed in the NL.

  • Despite a 9-4 loss to the Pirates as Luis Gil served up four home runs, the Yankees clinched the top seed in the AL when the Guardians lost, making Cleveland the No. 2 seed.

  • The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in both leagues remain unsettled. The Tigers have a one-game lead over the Royals in the AL, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.


The Shohei Ohtani watch … continues

The man is not slowing down. You thought we were done with Ohtani milestones after he cleared 50/50? No way. He went 2-for-5 with his 58th stolen base in Saturday’s blowout win over Colorado — his 35th consecutive stolen base without getting caught. Going back to his 6-for-6 game, he’s an incredible 26-for-39, a .667 average.

What can he do if he plays Sunday? He’s at 99 extra-base hits; the last players to reach 100 did it in 2001. And the Triple Crown is in play. Ohtani raised his average to .310. League leader Luis Arraez didn’t play Saturday, so remains at .314. It will be interesting to see if Arraez sits again on his .314 average and forces Ohtani to have a big day to catch him.

If Ohtani goes 4-for-5, he would be hitting .31397. Arraez is currently at .31388.


Other statistical races at play

  • Can Aaron Judge get to 60 home runs? Judge was back in the lineup Saturday after a day off, but went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts. That dropped his slugging percentage to .701 as he tries to become the first player to slug .700 since Barry Bonds in 2004. The last player to do so outside of the 1994 to 2004 window was Ted Williams in 1957.

  • Ohtani already passed 400 total bases, the first time that was done since 2001. Judge is at 392 so would likely need a two-homer finale to get there.

  • Bobby Witt Jr. now looks like a lock for the AL batting title. He has held the lead all summer, and when he peaked with a .352 average on Aug. 16, he held a comfortable 19-point lead over Judge (and 33 points over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.). After sitting Saturday, Witt remained at .332, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0-for-4 to fall to .324 while Judge dropped to .322 (which also eliminates his chance of a Triple Crown).

  • Jose Ramirez hit his 39th home run Saturday, so needs one more to join the exclusive 40/40 club, which has just six members: Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr. (2023), Alfonso Soriano (2006), Alex Rodriguez (1998), Barry Bonds (1996) and Jose Canseco (1998).

  • Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals has 49 saves; 50 saves has been achieved 17 times, the last by Edwin Diaz in 2018.


Saying goodbye

Joey Votto, who didn’t play in the majors this season after signing a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, announced his retirement a few weeks ago, and his next stop will eventually be receiving a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown. Two longtime outfielders have also officially announced their retirements at the end of the season:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers CF Kevin Kiermaier: It’s not clear whether Kiermaier will make the Dodgers’ playoff roster as a backup outfielder (he has hit .164 with the Dodgers and has started just two games in September), so this could be it for one of the best defensive center fielders of all time. Yes, all time. Kiermaier has won four Gold Gloves, displaying incredible lateral range during his heyday with the Tampa Bay Rays. His 38 defensive runs saved in 2015 is the best single-season total for a center fielder since DRS began in 2003, and his career total of 173 is the most for any outfielder since 2003 (and third most at any position, behind only Andrelton Simmons and Adrian Beltre). Kiermaier’s defensive excellence is reflected in his career WAR of 36.1. Not bad for a 31st-round pick from Parkland Community College.

  • Colorado Rockies DH/OF Charlie Blackmon: Blackmon has spent his entire 14-year career with the Rockies. It took him a while to get situated in the big leagues — his first full season didn’t come until he was 27 years old — but he went on to become a four-time All-Star and finished fifth in the 2017 NL MVP voting after leading the league in batting average (.331), hits (213) and runs (137). His power declined after that 2016 to 2019 peak, but he’s one of the most popular players in Rockies history and will finish with more than 1,800 hits in the majors.

There might be a few other veterans playing their final games who just haven’t yet announced their retirements. Matt Carpenter comes to mind here. Kyle Hendricks wants to pitch in 2025, but he heads into free agency, and his start Saturday at Wrigley Field will likely be his final one after 11 seasons with the Chicago Cubs. Let’s hope Andrew McCutchen returns to the Pittsburgh Pirates for another season after he put up solid numbers in 2024. If these guys don’t return — thanks for the memorable careers.

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Bama blows 28-0 lead, escapes UGA on late TD

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Bama blows 28-0 lead, escapes UGA on late TD

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama blew a 28-point lead against No. 2 Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night.

And then the No. 4 Crimson Tide broke the Bulldogs’ hearts again in a 41-34 victory in which the SEC heavyweights scored touchdowns on consecutive plays from scrimmage late in the fourth quarter.

Alabama didn’t seal the victory until cornerback Zabien Brown intercepted quarterback Carson Beck‘s pass to receiver Colbie Young in the end zone with 43 seconds left to end Georgia’s furious rally.

After the Bulldogs rallied from a 23-point deficit at halftime, they took their first lead on Beck’s 67-yard touchdown to Dillon Bell to make it 34-33 with 2:31 to go.

But Alabama scored on its very next play from scrimmage. On first-and-10 from the Crimson Tide 25, quarterback Jalen Milroe threw a deep ball down the right sideline for freshman Ryan Williams. The receiver spun out of cornerback Julian Humphrey‘s tackle at the 8-yard line and beat safety KJ Bolden for a 75-yard touchdown with 2:18 remaining. Milroe threw a 2-point conversion to receiver Germie Bernard to give Alabama a 41-34 lead.

Milroe completed 27 of 33 passes for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores. He is the first player in FBS history with 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns against an AP top-five opponent, according to ESPN Research.

Williams, a 17-year-old freshman, had six catches for 177 yards with one score.

Beck recovered from a slow start to complete 27 of 50 passes for 439 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also lost a fumble and was sacked three times.

The loss ended Georgia’s 42-game winning streak in the regular season, which was the longest run by an FBS team since Oklahoma won 45 in a row from 1953 to 1957. It also snapped Georgia’s 16-game winning streak on the road.

It was new Tide coach Kalen DeBoer’s first meeting with Georgia, but the results were the same for Alabama. It has won nine of its past 10 games against Georgia, including a 27-24 victory in last year’s SEC championship game, which led to the Bulldogs failing to make the College Football Playoff.

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Texas overcomes sloppy start to nab 1st SEC win

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Texas overcomes sloppy start to nab 1st SEC win

AUSTIN, Texas — No. 1 Texas got its first SEC win behind the arm of Arch Manning, who helped the Longhorns overcome a slow start and some self-inflicted setbacks to beat Mississippi State 35-13 on Saturday.

Manning was 26-of-31 for 324 yards and two touchdowns and added 33 rushing yards and another score, despite Johntay Cook II dropping a wide-open touchdown pass that would’ve added another 62 passing yards in the second quarter. A week after throwing two interceptions in his first start against UL Monroe, Manning said he felt more relaxed.

“I think last week I didn’t have as much fun as I wanted to,” Manning said. “I think I had a little bit more fun today even though it was a little rocky.”

It was rocky because running back Jaydon Blue lost two fumbles — one in the red zone — Cook dropped a touchdown and there were eight penalties on the Texas offense. Coach Steve Sarkisian criticized himself for kicking a field goal, then going for it on fourth down after a defensive penalty gave the Longhorns another chance. Texas failed to convert, taking three points off the board.

The Longhorns went into halftime with a 14-6 lead, with Mississippi State running a ground-heavy approach behind true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. The Bulldogs ran 73 plays on the night to Texas’ 62, but the Longhorns outgained them 522 yards to 294. There were also 17 penalties in the game, many with lengthy reviews.

“It was hard for the game to get a rhythm to it,” Sarkisian said.

But he was pleased that the Longhorns navigated this stretch of the season and Quinn Ewers‘ injury to start 5-0. It’s the second straight season Texas has started 5-0, marking just the second time in the past 50 years the Longhorns have done it in back-to-back years. Texas has an off week coming up, followed by the Red River Rivalry in Dallas against Oklahoma, before Georgia comes to Austin the following week.

Sarkisian said the Longhorns showed poise, and he was pleased they were able to survive their first SEC challenge while letting Ewers recover from a strained oblique injury without having to rush him back.

“We need Quinn back because he’s our quarterback and he’s our leader,” Sarkisian said. “I think that impacts the entire team and belief, but what I think we learned and what Arch learned here over the last 2½ games is this team can count on him too.”

Manning said he’s ready for Ewers’ return whenever that might be.

“I think Quinn’s proved himself,” Manning said. “I mean, he led us to the Sugar Bowl last year and he’s played really well this year, so this is his team. I think he’s going to come back and play really well, but I’ll be ready for when my number’s called if they need me. So we’re just going to try and keep this thing rolling.”

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