The College Football Playoff committee has released its first top 25 ranking of the season, which is the sport’s version of Walmart opening its doors at midnight on Black Friday. Things are about to get ugly, and someone’s going to end up bloodied while fighting Oklahoma for a spot in the top 12. In other words, it’s the best time of year.

This year, the committee has said it is considering a new “record strength” metric, designed to provide some math-based guidance in the process and to soon replace “game control” as the country’s most hated made-up statistic.

Ten weeks into a season filled with a lot of chaos and few seemingly great teams, however, the committee needs all the help it can get. For example, just eight teams in the country have already beaten more than one of the committee’s current top 25 — and one of those eight teams is NC State. Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Pitt, Washington, Missouri and Tennessee — all ranked this week — are a combined 0-12 against other teams in the committee’s top 25. The ACC doesn’t have a team ranked higher than 14th, and the Group of 5 doesn’t have a team ranked at all, making these rankings less about the coveted top 12 than a need to be in the top 10.

In other words, there’s a lot still in flux as we dive deeper into the final month of the season. But that means our anger toward the committee is just simmering for now, waiting for the rage to boil over in the weeks to come.

Still, a few schools have a pretty good case for outrage already.

In all the hubbub over last year’s final playoff rankings that left a trio of SEC teams out, what went overlooked was that BYU might have had more to be angry about than Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina. Two of those teams, at least, had taken a bad loss. Each of those teams had three losses. BYU, on the other hand, checked in on the committee’s final ranking behind each of them despite a 10-2 record and two close losses to solid teams.

So, certainly the committee would feel some compassion for the Cougars this year and consider the Cougars with a bit more optimism, right?

Ah, no.

Let’s take a look at some blind résumés.

Team A: No. 3 strength of record, No. 33 strength of schedule, 4-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 11 in the committee’s poll.

Team B: No. 4 strength of record, No. 45 strength of schedule, 3-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 13 in the committee’s poll.

Sure, Team A has a slight edge, but the résumés look pretty similar.

Well, Team A is the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. Surely, if another team’s résumé looks more or less the same, that team would be staring down a bye in the first round of the playoff, right?

Nope. Team B is BYU, and the Cougars sit behind three SEC teams with a loss, all three of which are ranked lower in ESPN’s strength of record metric.

Given that BYU has a massive showdown with Texas Tech upcoming, perhaps the committee just punted on any tough decisions on the Cougars for this week. After all, given how much love the committee has shown the Big Ten in these rankings, punting would be a fitting play.

We get it. As a conference, the ACC might, in fact, just be an episode of “Punk’d” that Ashton Kutcher started in 2008, then got distracted and forgot to let everyone know it was a prank. The conference’s train wreck in Week 10 certainly showed up in these rankings — more on that in a moment — but it’s almost as if the committee just threw Louisville into the mix, deciding the Cardinals were guilty by association.

Let’s take another look at some blind résumés, shall we?

Team A: No. 10 strength of record, No. 58 strength of schedule, one win vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 13 team, lone loss vs. an unranked team.

Team B: No. 13 strength of record, No. 56 strength of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 18 team, lone loss to committee’s No. 14 team.

This is basically a coin flip, though given the additional wins vs. high-level opponents and a better loss, it would be hard to argue against Team B, right? Add to that, Team B’s lone loss came in double overtime in a game when it outgained its opponent by 150 yards. Surely, you would be on Team B’s side now, right?

Well, not surprisingly, Team B is Louisville. Team A is Texas Tech, ranked seven spots higher at No. 8.

There seems to be a desire to write Miami off because of two losses in the past three games and given the strife the team seems to be enduring on offense, perhaps that’s wise.

But two things are supposed to be true of the committee’s evaluation process. One, the committee is not supposed to care when wins and losses happen. Losing in September isn’t better than losing in November. A loss is a loss. Second, the committee is not supposed to make assumptions about the future. Sure, Miami’s offense is a mess at the moment, but assuming that will result in future losses isn’t part of the deal.

And yet, putting Miami at No. 18 — eight full spots behind another two-loss team the Canes beat head-to-head — can only be explained by the vibes. Notre Dame’s season is rolling right along now. Miami has hit some stumbling blocks. Never mind the Canes are two late Carson Beck interceptions away from still being undefeated. Never mind that Miami has four wins vs. FPI top-35 teams, twice as many as any other two-loss team except Oklahoma. Never mind that Miami has that head-to-head against the No. 10 team in the committee’s rankings or that it walloped a Florida team that took No. 5 Georgia to the wire and actually beat No. 11 Texas. Never mind that Miami beat a then-ranked USF by 37.

Instead, the committee has assigned Miami to the scrap heap now — which is a shame because Miami would probably have done this to itself anyway, and it’s so much funnier when it happens in the last game of the season.

4. The Group of 5

A year ago, Boise State found its way into a first-round bye ahead of the champion of a Power 4 league, which was probably pretty embarrassing for that Power 4 league except that the ACC embarrasses itself often enough to be pretty well immune to shame.

The rules have changed this year. The top four conference champs aren’t guaranteed a first-round bye now. But that doesn’t seem to have stopped the committee from stacking the deck anyway, just to be safe.

Not one team outside the Power 4 found its way into these initial rankings, though the committee notes that Memphis currently is in the lead for the long Group of 5 playoff bid.

So, surely the Group of 5 should be pretty upset, right?

Yes, but not about being snubbed from the top-25 party. None of the leaders in the Group of 5 have a great case — certainly none like Boise State had a year ago. But Memphis? Really? The same team that lost by a touchdown to a UAB team had just fired its coach?

In the committee’s new guidance to consider record strength, there is an assumption that really bad losses are weighted heavily, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this time around.

North Texas has one loss to SP+ No. 27.

James Madison has one loss to SP+ No. 16 (and the No. 15 team in the committee’s rankings).

San Diego State has one loss to SP+ No. 73 has one loss to SP+ No. 119.

Memphis has one loss to SP+ No. 119.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the Tigers weren’t punished at all for a terrible loss.

5. The SEC

The latter half of the committee’s top 25 is usually the equivalent of the phone lines for a Finebaum episode — just a place where a lot of mediocre SEC folks hang out, patiently waiting for their turn. But this time, the committee has stuffed the bottom of the rankings with Big Ten teams — No. 19 USC, No. 20 Iowa, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington — and that might actually matter in the long run.

One of the committee’s favored metrics is wins over ranked opponents. We’re dubious about how many Big Ten teams deserve a little number next to their name. The league still has four teams that have yet to win a conference game, and the bottom third is a complete dumpster fire. It’s easy to rack up some wins when half your conference schedule has already been embarrassed by UCLA’s interim coaching staff.

But the SEC — that’s where the real depth is. Nearly half the SEC’s conference games this season have been one-possession affairs. Mississippi State, a team that had gone nearly two years without an SEC win, already knocked off last year’s Big 12 champ. LSU, a team that fired its coach, has a win over last year’s ACC champ. Florida beat Texas. Putting a bunch of undeserving teams at the bottom of the rankings only serves to prop up the résumés of teams such as Oregon, which hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence. And frankly, the committee is supposed to do that for the SEC, not the Big Ten.

Also angry: Virginia Cavaliers (8-1, No. 14, behind four two-loss teams), USF Bulls (6-2, unranked), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, unranked), Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, unranked), Brian Kelly (just angry for other reasons).

Ohio State is the No. 1 team in the first rankings released Tuesday by the College Football Playoff selection committee, topping fellow unbeatens Indiana at No. 2 and Texas A&M at No. 3.

Three SEC teams followed the Aggies, with Alabama at No. 4, Georgia at No. 5 and Ole Miss at No. 6.

BYU, Texas Tech, Oregon and Notre Dame round out the top 10. The top ACC team is Virginia at No. 14. Every team in the top 25 came from a Power 4 conference, so the committee designated Memphis as the top team from the Group of 5.

The five highest-ranked conference champions will make the 12-team field, but there is a tweak to the format this year as the committee is using a straight seeding model. The top four teams in the final ranking, regardless of conference championship, will receive a first-round bye.

If the playoff were today, the first-round games would be: Memphis at Georgia; Virginia at Ole Miss; Notre Dame at BYU; and Oregon at Texas Tech.

“We had robust discussion about the three of them,” CFP committee chair Mack Rhoades, the athletic director at Baylor, said on ESPN’s rankings release show Tuesday night regarding the Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Aggies at the top of the board. “Obviously, all three are undefeated. … We really felt like that Ohio State and Indiana were close. When you look at the statistical data, both offensively and defensively, these are two teams that are both in the top five offensively and in the top five defensively, both with really good wins.

“But again, when we looked at tape, and we looked at metrics, we felt that Ohio State was a little bit better up front, on the offensive line. And we thought they were better defensively.”

The SEC led the way with nine teams ranked in the top 25, while the Big Ten had seven, including the Ducks, who elicited discussion about their top-10 ranking. The ACC had five on the list, and the Big 12 had three.

“It came up when we talked about Oregon,” Rhoades said in reference to the new straight-seeding model. “When you look at them in the top 10, our lowest ranked in terms of record strength. And so the committee had a lot of conversations — rigorous debate and conversations — about Oregon as a team.

THE FIRST 12-TEAM CFP BRACKET PROJECTION OF THE SEASON‼️

The committee selected Memphis as the best team from the remaining conferences. pic.twitter.com/EU6NCc33Ds

— ESPN (@espn) November 5, 2025

“We’re blessed to have three coaches in the room and looking at the tape. And when you looked at Oregon, they have great players at the skill positions. We felt that they were really good up front, both sides of the ball. Their one loss is to our No. 2-ranked team, in Indiana, and so, again, when we looked and evaluated Oregon, we really looked in terms of quality of team and how they looked on film.”

Despite having two losses, Notre Dame finds itself in position to make the CFP as an at-large team for the second straight season. Though the only notable win the Fighting Irish have is over No. 19 USC, both of their losses came in the closing minute, to No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 18 Miami, during the first two weeks of the season.

Despite having the same number of losses and the head-to-head win over the Irish, Miami is ranked No. 18 — eight spots lower than Notre Dame after losing 26-20 in overtime to SMU this past weekend. Though the Hurricanes have more notable victories, their losses have put them on the outside of the 12-team field, in what could be a repeat of last year.

“We’re sitting here looking at head to head, we’re looking at common opponents, we’re looking at schedule strength, we’re looking at record strength, we’re looking at all of the analytics,” Rhoades said of the evaluation process. “So, we truly try to look at each team on its own, and its body of work.”

Though Texas and quarterback Arch Manning have looked shaky at times over the course of the season, the Longhorns are ranked No. 11 after a big win over No. 16 Vanderbilt. They also beat Oklahoma 23-6 last month. Unlike Miami and Notre Dame, that head-to-head win is what is separating Texas and the No. 12 Sooners, both with the same 7-2 record.

Utah is ranked No. 13, with Virginia at No. 14 and Louisville at No. 15. The Cardinals have a win over Miami but lost to Virginia earlier this season.

Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Miami, USC, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, Pittsburgh and Tennessee round out the top 25. The Volunteers are the only three-loss team in the rankings.

The final CFP rankings will be announced Dec. 7, the day after conference championship games are played.

The four first-round games will be played at the home campus of the higher-seeded teams on Dec. 19 and 20. The four quarterfinal games will be played at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31), Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).

The two semifinal games will take place at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Jan. 8 and 9, respectively.

The CFP National Championship is scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first ranking at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.

It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés.

Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking will look like when it’s released later Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve listed teams as Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’re expected to receive, ranked from the most to least. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated bubble watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance in the country (43%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.

First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma also could help them with the committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.

Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at Tennessee and have what should be a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Where the committee ranks Tennessee after its third loss will impact both of their résumés as a common opponent. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for those. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize that the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.

First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.

Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.

Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big 12

Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech

Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).

First team out: Utah. The Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes have a hard time earning an at-large bid without beating at least one of the best teams in their league.

Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

ACC

Would be in: Virginia

Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia also has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and likely their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP top 25. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.

First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4, but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above the Cardinals lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.

Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, Miami. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they’re both in contention to play for the ACC title. Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has the highest chance to win out (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will honor Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame because they have the same record. It’s one of several tiebreakers, but not weighted, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and not comparable now, Notre Dame can be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (68.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers, winners of five straight, are playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. The Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.

Group of 5

Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.

Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State