Oil plunge, tech collapse and Fed cuts? Strategist shares possible 2023 market ‘surprises’
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, August 29, 2022.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
After a tumultuous year for financial markets, Standard Chartered outlined a number of potential surprises for 2023 that it says are being “underpriced” by the market.
Eric Robertson, the bank’s head of research and chief strategist, said outsized market moves are likely to continue next year, even if risks decline and sentiment improves. He warned investors to prepare for “another year of shaken nerves and rattled brains.”
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The biggest surprise of all, according to Robertson, would be a return to “more benign economic and financial-market conditions,” with consensus pointing to a global recession and further turbulence across asset classes next year.
As such, he named eight potential market surprises that have a “non-zero probability” of occurring in 2023, which fall “materially outside of the market consensus” or the bank’s own baseline views, but are “underpriced by the markets.”
Collapsing oil prices
Oil prices surged over the first half of 2022 as a result of persistent supply blockages and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and have remained volatile throughout the remainder of the year. They declined 35% between June 14 and Nov. 28, with output cuts from OPEC+ and hopes for an economic resurgence in China preventing the slide from accelerating further.
However, Robertson suggested that a deeper-than-expected global recession, including a delayed Chinese recovery on the back of an unexpected surge in Covid-19 cases, could lead to a “significant collapse in oil demand” across even previously resilient economies in 2023.
Should a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict occur, this would remove the “war-related risk premia” — the additional rate of return investors can expect for taking more risk — from oil, causing prices to lose around 50% of their value in the first half of 2023, according to Robertson’s list of “potential surprises.”
“With oil prices falling quickly, Russia is unable to fund its military activities beyond Q1-2023 and agrees to a ceasefire. Although peace negotiations are protracted, the end of the war causes the risk premium that had supported energy prices to disappear completely,” Robertson speculated.
“Risk related to military conflict had helped to keep front contract prices elevated relative to deferred contracts, but the decline in risk premia and the end of the war see the oil curve invert in Q1-2023.”
In this potential scenario, the collapse in oil prices would take international benchmark Brent crude from its current level of around $79 per barrel to just $40 per barrel, its lowest point since the peak of the pandemic.
Fed cuts by 200 basis points
The main central bank story of 2022 was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s underestimation of rising prices, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s mea culpa that inflation was not, in fact, “transitory.”
The Fed has subsequently hiked its short-term borrowing rate from a target range of 0.25%-0.5% at the start of the year to 3.75%-4% in November, with a further increase expected at its December meeting. The market is pricing an eventual peak of around 5%.
Robertson said a potential risk for next year is that the Federal Open Market Committee now underestimates the economic damage inflicted by 2023’s massive interest rate hikes.
Should the U.S. economy fall into a deep recession in the first half of the year, the central bank may be forced to cut rates by up to 200 basis points, according to Robertson’s list of “potential surprises.”
“The narrative in 2023 quickly shifts as the cracks in the foundation spread from the most highly leveraged sectors of the economy to even the most stable,” he added.
“The message from the FOMC also shifts rapidly from the need to keep monetary conditions restrictive for an extended period to the need to provide liquidity to avoid a major hard landing.”
Tech stocks fall even further
Growth-oriented technology stocks took a hammering over the course of 2022 as the steep rise in interest rates increased the cost of capital.
But Standard Chartered says the sector could have even further to fall in 2023.
The Nasdaq 100 closed Monday down more than 29% since the start of the year, though a 15% rally between Oct. 13 and Dec. 1 on the back of softening inflation prints helped cushion the annual losses.
On his list of potential surprises for 2023, Robertson said the index could slide another 50% to 6,000.
“The technology sector broadly continues to suffer in 2023, weighed down by plunging demand for hardware, software and semiconductors,” he speculated.
“Further, rising financing costs and shrinking liquidity lead to a collapse in funding for private companies, prompting further significant valuation cuts across the sector, as well as a wave of job losses.”
Next-generation tech companies could then see a surge in bankruptcies in 2023, shrinking the market cap share of these companies on the S&P 500 from 29.5% at its peak to 20% by the end of the year, according to Robertson.
“The dominance of the tech sector in the S&P 500 drags the broader equity index lower too,” he suggested, adding: “The tech sector leads a global equity collapse.”
Electric vehicles’ share of the market continues to climb in America’s second city, with BEV registrations up more than 50% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period last year. Great news, but charging hasn’t up – but a new plan from Chicago Department of Transportation aims to build up enough infrastructure for the city to keep up.
In a bid to keep up with the rapid growth of EVs, Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT is currently seeking public feedback on a plan called “Chicago Moves Electric Framework.” The city’s first such plan, it outlines initiatives that include a curbside charging pilot through the city’s utility, ComEd, and expanded charging access in key areas throughout the city.
Unlike other such plans, however, the new plan aims to focus on bringing electric vehicle charging to EIEC and low income communities, too.
“Through this framework, we are setting clear goals and identifying solutions that reflect the voices of our residents, communities, and regional partners,” said CDOT Commissioner Tom Carney. “By prioritizing equity and public input, we’re creating a roadmap for electric transportation that serves every neighborhood and helps drive down emissions across Chicago.”
Neighborhoods on the south and west sides of Chicago experience a disproportionate amount of air pollution and diesel emissions, largely due to vehicle emissions according to CDOT. Despite that, most of Chicago’s public charging stations are clustered in higher-income areas while just 7.8% are in environmental justice neighborhoods that face higher environmental burdens.
“Too often, communities facing the greatest economic and transportation barriers also experience the most air pollution,” explains Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. “By prioritizing investments in historically underserved areas and making clean transportation options more affordable and accessible, we can improve both mobility and public health.”
The Framework identifies other near-term policy objectives, as well – such as streamlining the EV charger installation process for businesses and residents and implementing “Low-Emission Zones” in areas disproportionately impacted by air pollution by limiting, or even restricting, access to conventional medium- and heavy-duty vehicles during peak hours.
The Chicago Moves Electric Framework includes the installation of Level 2 and DC fast charging stations in public locations such as libraries and Chicago’s Midway Airport, “supporting not only personal EVs but also electric taxis, ride-hail and commercial fleets.”
Chicago has a goal of installing 2,500 public passenger EV charging stations and electrifying the city’s entire municipal vehicle fleet by 2035.
Electrek’s Take
I hate to sound like a bed-wetting liberal here, guys, but Chicago is getting EVs absolutely right with big utility incentives on both vehicles and infrastructure, a governor willing to stand behind smart environmental policy, and a solid push for more and better infrastructure in the areas where they’ll do the most good. They’re even thinking of the children.
Here’s hoping more cities follow suit.
SOURCE: ComEd, via Smart Cities Dive; featured image by EVgo.
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With a fully-enclosed, G-Wagen-inspired body and an 80 mile electric range, the Bodo G-Wagon golf cart is the NEV you need when you decide it’s time to get serous one-upping the rest of the Palm Beach country clubbers.
If you love the look of the $230,000 Mercedes-Benz G580 off-roader, but think the 579 hp, 6,800 lb. electric 4×4 is probably overkill for occasional trips to the golf course and country club, this G-Wagen-inspired golf cart might be just what you’re looking for.
The shiny black 2024 Bodo G-Wagon sold at Mecum Auctions last month for $31,900, which seems like it might not be a lot of money to the sort of person who decides to take a flyer on a goofy, limited-use EV that ships with real, metal doors, power windows, heating and air conditioning, fully digital instrument cluster and infotainment, and a “posh,” caramel leather interior.
It even has windshield wipers, power steering, and a rear-seat entertainment system that’s built into the front headrests!
It’s really nice in there
Under the hood, the Bodo packs a 15 kW (20 hp) electric motor drawing power from a 10 kWh li-ion battery that won’t deliver a scorching 0-60 mph time (it only goes 35), but will deliver you and your buddies from one end of any golf course in North America and back several times over, thanks to the G-Wagon’s 80 mile range.
The official Mecum Auctions listing goes into a bit more detail, and I’ve included it here, in case it gets deleted after a while and you’re just finding this for the first time in 2027:
Be the envy of any country club or golf community showing up with this 2024 Bodo G-Wagon Golf Cart. Perhaps more appropriately known as an E-Wagon, this baby G-Wagon is powered by a 15kW motor with a 10kWh lithium battery. Boasting an 80-mile range and a 35 MPH top speed, the Bodo is an enclosed, luxury golf cart that pampers occupants with heating and air conditioning, rear-seat entertainment, power windows, power locks and a posh, caramel-colored interior. With the Bodo fitted with power steering and 4-wheel power disc brakes with brake boost, drivers will think they’re in a full-size G-Wagon, thanks to the multiscreen entertainment cluster, the rearview camera, windshield wipers, turn signals, running lights and so much more.
Finished in black with the right amount of brightwork, the overall vibe is one of jaw-dropping, smile-inducing fun. While the Bodo would be an excellent choice for any golf community, it should also prove to be hugely popular around a race track or car condo community as well, or maybe even a neighborhood with its own airplane runways. Over the past decade in particular, the demand for unique, luxury golf carts has been on the rise, and understandably so. The number of luxury communities with specific interests in sports, aero and auto has also been on the rise, with people buying homes in these exclusive locations to better engage with like-minded people. All too often a golf cart is the perfect way to get around these gated neighborhoods, and this one is enclosed, comes with the amenities of a full-size car and is infinitely more stylish.
You can check out a few more photos of the 2024 Bodo G-Wagon golf cart that sold at Mecum, below – and if you want one for yourself, you’re in luck! I found this brand-new 2025 “G600 E-Wagon” (in white) for $23,900 at Gulf Carts in Santa Rosa Beach, Florida. Head on down to the comments and let us know if you buy it.
G-Wagon golf cart gallery
SOURCE | LOTS MORE PHOTOS: Mecum Auctions.
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The Hyundai IONIQ 5 got a raft of upgrades and sporty, rally-focused XRT trim level for 2025 – but the biggest upgrade for the Made in America Hyundai might be this: the 5 has regained eligibility for the full $7,500 federal EV tax credit!
Despite being assembled at Hyundai’s Georgia meta plant for the last four month, the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 was nowhere to be found on the EPA’s list of rebate-eligible vehicles. But that was then – with a fresh updated to the list coming online May 1st, Hyundai’s new-age electric hot hatch is back in the rebate game.
It’s worth noting that lease customers had been able to access the incentive under some circumstances, but this latest update to the EPA list makes it possible for cash and payment buyers to take advantage of the full Federal incentive, too – as long as they earn less than $300,000 as a married couple filing jointly, less than $225,000 as a head of household, or less than $150,000 as an individual.
With the $7,500 federal tax credit in the equation, you can get a new 2025 IONIQ 5 for somewhere in between $36,575 and $49,475, well under the $80,000 Federal MSRP cap.
Victory lap
As if to celebrate, Hyundai announced that it was taking on the celebrate One Lap of America road rayy and race event in a factory collaboration with the track-focused enthusiasts at Grassroots Motorsports this week with One Lap veterans Andy Hollis and Tom Suddard campaigning a stock, 601 hp 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 N in the Alternative Fuels class.
“After winning our class in a gutted, caged race car last year, we wanted to compete in the best-of-all worlds this year: A vehicle that’s incredibly fast, incredibly comfortable on a road trip, and incredibly capable on a racetrack,” explains Suddard. “Electrification means it’s finally possible to have huge power without huge compromises in a street car, and the IONIQ 5 N promises to pair that huge power with the durability and capability to survive a week of racing.”
One Lap is widely regarded as one of the toughest street-legal motorsports events in the world, pitting amateur and professional drivers alike compete in stock and heavily modified vehicles of every description, battling it out in a series of scored challenges, including timed events at road courses, drag strips, skid pads, and autocross courses.
In between tracks, competitors safely travel thousands of miles around the country, proving the mettle and durability of the vehicles and the teams that drive them. This year, 86 teams from all over the country will compete in 17 scored events over the course of eight days at tracks like Virginia International Raceway and NCM Motorsports Park.
The Tire Rack One Lap of America is currently underway – you can track the Hyundai’s progress here, then let us know what you think of this new tax development in the comments.
SOURCES | IMAGES: Hyundai, One Lap of America; FuelEconomy.gov.
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