A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, August 29, 2022.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
After a tumultuous year for financial markets, Standard Chartered outlined a number of potential surprises for 2023 that it says are being “underpriced” by the market.
Eric Robertson, the bank’s head of research and chief strategist, said outsized market moves are likely to continue next year, even if risks decline and sentiment improves. He warned investors to prepare for “another year of shaken nerves and rattled brains.”
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The biggest surprise of all, according to Robertson, would be a return to “more benign economic and financial-market conditions,” with consensus pointing to a global recession and further turbulence across asset classes next year.
As such, he named eight potential market surprises that have a “non-zero probability” of occurring in 2023, which fall “materially outside of the market consensus” or the bank’s own baseline views, but are “underpriced by the markets.”
Collapsing oil prices
Oil prices surged over the first half of 2022 as a result of persistent supply blockages and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and have remained volatile throughout the remainder of the year. They declined 35% between June 14 and Nov. 28, with output cuts from OPEC+ and hopes for an economic resurgence in China preventing the slide from accelerating further.
However, Robertson suggested that a deeper-than-expected global recession, including a delayed Chinese recovery on the back of an unexpected surge in Covid-19 cases, could lead to a “significant collapse in oil demand” across even previously resilient economies in 2023.
Should a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict occur, this would remove the “war-related risk premia” — the additional rate of return investors can expect for taking more risk — from oil, causing prices to lose around 50% of their value in the first half of 2023, according to Robertson’s list of “potential surprises.”
“With oil prices falling quickly, Russia is unable to fund its military activities beyond Q1-2023 and agrees to a ceasefire. Although peace negotiations are protracted, the end of the war causes the risk premium that had supported energy prices to disappear completely,” Robertson speculated.
“Risk related to military conflict had helped to keep front contract prices elevated relative to deferred contracts, but the decline in risk premia and the end of the war see the oil curve invert in Q1-2023.”
In this potential scenario, the collapse in oil prices would take international benchmark Brent crude from its current level of around $79 per barrel to just $40 per barrel, its lowest point since the peak of the pandemic.
The Fed has subsequently hiked its short-term borrowing rate from a target range of 0.25%-0.5% at the start of the year to 3.75%-4% in November, with a further increase expected at its December meeting. The market is pricing an eventual peak of around 5%.
Robertson said a potential risk for next year is that the Federal Open Market Committee now underestimates the economic damage inflicted by 2023’s massive interest rate hikes.
Should the U.S. economy fall into a deep recession in the first half of the year, the central bank may be forced to cut rates by up to 200 basis points, according to Robertson’s list of “potential surprises.”
“The narrative in 2023 quickly shifts as the cracks in the foundation spread from the most highly leveraged sectors of the economy to even the most stable,” he added.
“The message from the FOMC also shifts rapidly from the need to keep monetary conditions restrictive for an extended period to the need to provide liquidity to avoid a major hard landing.”
Tech stocks fall even further
Growth-oriented technology stocks took a hammering over the course of 2022 as the steep rise in interest rates increased the cost of capital.
But Standard Chartered says the sector could have even furtherto fall in 2023.
The Nasdaq 100 closed Monday down more than 29% since the start of the year, though a 15% rally between Oct. 13 and Dec. 1 on the back of softening inflation prints helped cushion the annual losses.
On his list of potential surprises for 2023, Robertson said the index could slide another 50% to 6,000.
“The technology sector broadly continues to suffer in 2023, weighed down by plunging demand for hardware, software and semiconductors,” he speculated.
“Further, rising financing costs and shrinking liquidity lead to a collapse in funding for private companies, prompting further significant valuation cuts across the sector, as well as a wave of job losses.”
Next-generation tech companies could then see a surge in bankruptcies in 2023, shrinking the market cap share of these companies on the S&P 500 from 29.5% at its peak to 20% by the end of the year, according to Robertson.
“The dominance of the tech sector in the S&P 500 drags the broader equity index lower too,” he suggested, adding: “The tech sector leads a global equity collapse.”
French infrastructure specialists Proviridis have partnered with EVSE manufacturer Kempower to deliver a novel, underground charging solution for electric semi trucks designed to easily integrate into existing truck depots.
By installing its high-powered charging cabinets underground and integrating the charging cables into a solid metal pipe, Kempower and Proviridis have been able to make room for high-powered charging points in an existing truck depot that didn’t have enough space to install either conventional EVSE or overhead “drop lines.”
For the pilot, the metal pipe is painted in a striking yellow color to make it easier to see while maneuvering the lot, and keeping the dispensers themselves more protected than conventional concrete bollards. The 600 kW power cabinet is positioned a few yards away – a typical space-saving Kempower solution – and connected to the charge points by underground cable.
Proviridis believes their solution provides enough of a competitive advantage that fleet buyers looking to electrify will be eager to give it a try.
“The product is durable across a wide spectrum of temperatures and conditions, requires minimal ventilation, and can cater for a wide range of customer needs,” explains Olivier Verdu, Technical Director at Proviridis. “These are features which perfectly place the Kempower solution for this type of charging configuration in a logistics environment.”
In honor of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, eBike specialist Buzz Bicycles is offering an exclusive discount for Electrek readers on its Centris Class 2 Folding Bike.
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Buzz Bicycles is back with an exclusive new deal
Buzz Bicycles has been a mainstay on Electrek for a few years now, as we have covered several of its electric bikes, which suit riders of all skill levels and help them “Buzz through life.” Buzz is an omnichannel eBike brand that prioritizes direct-to-consumerism and has found success in its mission to deliver ultimate transportation solutions at an excellent value for its growing base of eBike enthusiasts.
The company strives to deliver riders a “Wow moment,” which is usually brought on as they feel the pedal assist function kick in. This feature delivers all you need to conquer hills and longer rides while enjoying new adventures with friends.
The Buzz team has utilized decades of industry experience into its portfolio of eBikes, all conceived and designed in Dayton, Ohio. The company, which operates under the United Wheels umbrella alongside brands like Huffy Bicycles, Niner Bikes, and Batch Bicycles, has adopted an ethos that the freedom of riding should be fun and accessible for everyone, no matter what adventure lies ahead.
By leveraging the global presence of its parent company, Buzz Bicycles can make good on its promise to deliver affordable eBikes that are comfortable, powerful, and safe, much like the Centris Folding eBike, which is as versatile and compact as it is fun. The exclusive deal Buzz Bicycles is offering on the Centris makes it even more fun. You can take advantage of it below.
But first, you’ll want to learn about the capabilities of this foldable eBike to truly understand its value, as well as what accessories are available to level up your purchase.
The Buzz Centris is an easy to ride foldable eBike for all
The Buzz Centris is a Class 2 Folding eBike built for comfort and convenience no matter where you take it. At full size, the Centris’ step-through frame offers a low step-over height of just 16 inches, perfect for riders of all sizes, enabling easy transitions from ground to saddle for its riders.
When you’re not riding, the Centris from Buzz Bicycles folds neatly to 34 inches in length and 22 inches in height, making it easy to store at home or to carry in a vehicle on the way to your next ride. Furthermore, the assembled bike only weighs 68 pounds, making it easy to transport.
You can easily navigate tougher terrain on the Centris thanks to the eBike’s 20″ x 4″ knobby tires and front suspension. The bike is powered by a 48V, 500-watt-hour (Wh) battery pack that can propel it to a top speed of 20 mph for an all-electric range of up to 40 miles on a single charge.
Additionally, this folding model from Buzz Bicycles comes equipped with both a front and rear rack, offering versatile cargo-carrying options so you can customize your ride with a variety of Buzz accessories.
Like all Buzz eBikes, the Centris is tested and deemed compliant with the UL2849 standard. This standard covers the entire electric bicycle system, including the motor, battery, controller, and charger, offering the highest safety standards for added peace of mind.
The Centris Class 2 folding bike from Buzz is available in two colors: Gloss White or Matte Black. This $1,199 eBike is currently reduced to $899 – and you can score an additional $200 off with this exclusive promo, but only for a limited time.
With the purchase of any Buzz eBike, including the Centris, you are guaranteed the following:
10-year limited warranty (lightweight aluminum frame protected for full 10 years)
2-year limited warranty (electrical components covered by 2-year warranty for peace of mind)
6-month limited warranty (additional bike components protected by a 6-month warranty)
Are you interested in the Centris from Buzz Bicycles? You’ve come to the right place. Starting today, while supplies last, you can take advantage of an additional $200 off the sale price by using promo code “ELECTREK200.“ That’s a $500 discount in total!
We highly recommend perusing Buzz’s entire lineup of products. They are designed for commuters and casual riders, with technology and features that help you quickly feel comfortable riding. If you are new to the world of E-transportation, Buzz Bicycles is the brand for you.
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With up to 500 km (310 miles) of all-electric range, the new Mercedes eActros 600 electric semi truck was designed for long-haul trucking – and now, it’s officially in production at the company’s Wörth plant in Bavaria.
“The start of series production of our eActros 600 is a further proof of our ambition to transform the industry,” offers Karin Rådström, CEO of Daimler Truck. “With a range of 500 kilometers on a single battery charge, our eActros 600 is addressing the long-haul segment in Europe which is responsible for two-thirds of CO2 emissions from heavy road freight. Our battery-electric long-haul truck will therefore make a real difference.”
In addition to the 600’s additional range, the newest eActros marks another milestone by becoming the first electric Mercedes semi to be manufactured on a single line (the eActros 300/400 and eEconic leave their standard production lines to have their electric drive components installed at Mercedes’ Future Truck Center in Wörth).
“With the start of series production of the eActros 600, we are expanding our Wörth product portfolio with an important vehicle for the future,” says Andreas Bachhofer, Head of the Wörth site and Production at Mercedes-Benz Trucks. “Construction of this first battery-electric truck made in Wörth will be fully integrated into the existing assembly hall, flexibly alongside the manufacturing of combustion-engine trucks. This means that we are ideally positioned for the production of larger quantities. Our production team is well prepared for the successive ramp-up over the coming months.”
The new electric semi truck features a 600+ kWh battery (hence, eActros 600) that sends power to a new, highly efficient electric drive axle developed in-house by Mercedes-Benz, good enough to “be able to travel significantly more than 1,000 kilometers per day. This is made possible by intermediate charging during the legally prescribed driver breaks – even without megawatt-charging.”