Will Judge sign? Which NL West team could make a huge move? What we’re hearing at the winter meetings
For the first time since 2019, baseball’s winter meetings are back!
All signs point to an action-packed week of rumors, signings and trades in San Diego — and we’ve got it all covered for you right here, from our MLB experts’ predictions going into the meetings to the latest updates and analysis as the moves go down.
When will Aaron Judge decide between staying with the New York Yankees and going to the San Francisco Giants or another suitor? Which of the four-star shortstops in this year’s free agent class found a home first? And where will Carlos Rodon land as the last ace remaining, after Jacob deGrom made waves by joining the Rangers and Justin Verlander followed by signing with the New York Mets. Check out our predictions and refresh often for the latest as the week unfolds.
Key links: Hot stove survey | Predictions | Impact of new rules | Tracker
Trades we want to see | Top free agents | Passan’s preview | FA grades
Winter meetings grades: Verlander | Turner
Latest news, rumors, updates from San Diego
Tuesday, Dec. 6
Giants add to outfield by inking Haniger
Outfielder Mitch Haniger and the San Francisco Giants agreed on a three-year, $43.5 million contract Tuesday, sources told ESPN, filling a hole in the Giants’ outfield as they continue to their free-agent pursuit of American League MVP Aaron Judge.
Bellinger chooses Cubs
Outfielder Cody Bellinger and the Chicago Cubs are in agreement on a one-year, $17.5 million contract, sources familiar with the deal told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Tuesday.
Rangers add another starting pitcher
Days after making the first really big splash of this offseason by bringing in Jacob deGrom, Texas is adding another starter to its rotation by signing Andrew Heaney, according to sources. Heaney is getting a two-year deal with an opt-out in the middle. The contract is worth $25 million through those two years but can increase to $37 million with incentives. — Alden Gonzalez
Cleveland gets needed power bat in Bell
First baseman Josh Bell and the Cleveland Guardians have agreed on a two-year contract, sources familiar with the deal told ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The deal will total $33 million over two years and include an opt-out clause after the 2023 season.
Bellinger drawing wide interest
Agent Scott Boras gave an update on Cody Bellinger‘s free agent status, saying the outfielder is still seeking a one-year deal to rebuild his value after being non-tendered by the Dodgers. The former MVP has wide interest from about 10 teams, but he’s likely to narrow that down soon, according to a source. — Jesse Rogers
How much for Bogaerts?!
Some agents have estimated that shortstop Xander Bogaerts will get a deal in the range of $180-200 million when he signs, given the enormous spike in the market. — Buster Olney
Boras says teams have only approached him about Bogaerts playing shortstop, and he won’t take any final offer back to the Red Sox:
“We’re not the matching kind. We let teams know they have to assert. We don’t hold back from reaching an agreement with any team. We don’t give market preference to anyone.” — Jesse Rogers
Star Japanese outfielder posted as MLB free agent
Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida has officially been posted, sources tell ESPN. He’ll have 30 days to sign a deal with an MLB team. There is significant interest in the 29-year-old, who this year hit .335/.447/.551 with 80 walks and 41 strikeouts for the Orix Buffaloes. — Jeff Passan
The Padres are ready to go big. Really, really big.
The San Diego Padres appear ready and willing to make a big, big, big strike in the free agent market, a move that would send ripples throughout the industry — and make it even clearer that Padres owner Peter Seidler is wholly devoted to the pursuit of a championship.
As The Athletic first reported, the Phillies’ 11-year, $300 million offer that landed Trea Turner was actually the second-highest offer on the table, behind the Padres’. But not only did San Diego outbid the Phillies, according to industry sources, their offer would’ve made Turner the highest-paid shortstop in baseball — beyond the $341 million that Francisco Lindor got from the Mets, and that the Padres previously gave to Fernando Tatis Jr.
1:46
Jeff Passan and Alden Gonzalez discuss the potential suitors for free agent pitcher Carlos Rodon.
With deep family ties to the Philadelphia area and the East Coast, Turner chose the Phillies — despite a hard personal and financial push from the Padres, who sent a contingent of club officials to meet in person with Turner and his wife, Kristen. Turner could’ve played shortstop for the Padres in 2023, batting in front of Juan Soto, Manny Machado and (eventually) Tatis Jr.
But with Turner now off the board, the Padres are pivoting hard in the market, with four elite position players on the board — slugger Aaron Judge and shortstops Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts. As one longtime evaluator said Tuesday morning: If the Padres were willing to spend $350 million or $360 million on Turner, why wouldn’t they take a shot at Judge, or Correa, or Bogaerts?
And in fact, the Padres are known to have been in touch with Bogaerts, who contended for a batting title with the Red Sox in 2022 and just opted out of his contract. In the spring, Boston offered Bogaerts a one-year, $30 million extension, on top of the three years and $60 million he is already owed — and it appears Bogaerts’ market this winter will yield him a contract that takes him way, way beyond what the Red Sox proposed. The Padres could sign the 30-year-old Bogaerts to be their shortstop in the near future, and with Tatis, Jr. on the roster, Bogaerts could shift to another spot in later years.
San Diego has typically carried a payroll ranked among the bottom half of the teams. But in February of 2019, Seidler invested $300 million in Manny Machado, and since then, Seidler has continued to provide resources to the front office to make the sort of deals that the Padres wouldn’t have considered in their first half-century of existence. Last summer, the Padres pulled off a massive deal in trading for Juan Soto, as well as a swap for All-Star closer Josh Hader, and San Diego eliminated the rival Dodgers — reaching the NL Championship Series for the first time since 1998. The Padres drew nearly 3 million fans to Petco Park in 2022, with players raving about the atmosphere of the place.
It may be that San Diego fans will soon have another new All-Star to cheer on, whether it’s Bogaerts or someone else. The Padres are very serious about trying to do all they can to win a World Series for the first time in franchise history. — Buster Olney
HBCU Swingman Classic coming to MLB All-Star week
MLB, the Major League Baseball Players Association and Ken Griffey Jr. will launch the inaugural HBCU Swingman Classic as part of next year’s MLB All-Star festivities in Seattle, the league announced Tuesday.
Interest in McCutchen is heating up
Andrew McCutchen has drawn interest from the Dodgers, Rays and Reds, as well as the Brewers, as he prepares for his 15th big league season. McCutchen, 36, is just a handful of hits away from 2,000 in his career, and he needs just 13 homers to reach 300. While playing 134 games for the Brewers last season, McCutchen had 25 doubles and 17 homers; he has been working on making some swing changes this offseason. — Buster Olney
Monday, Dec. 5
Will the Red Sox do something big?
The Boston Red Sox plan to be aggressive. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said the team plans on adding between seven to nine players this offseason (including the additions of relievers Joely Rodriguez and Chris Martin). Boston hopes to add a starting pitcher along with multiple position players and relievers. Bloom said the Red Sox remain engaged on Xander Bogaerts, but the team’s top priority remains signing Rafael Devers to an extension. Executives for some other teams say Bogaerts’ market could take a while to develop with Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson also on the open market. — Joon Lee
Could we see more Ohtani on the mound in ’23?
The Los Angeles Angels shifted to a six-man rotation in recent years to accommodate Shohei Ohtani, who was accustomed to starting once a week in his native Japan. But they have recently given thought to the possibility of whittling their staff down to five.
Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, said during the GM meetings last month that Ohtani would be open to the possibility given his growing comfort in the major leagues. The fact that his innings would tick up as a result, heading into free agency, is undoubtedly an added benefit.
“We’ve had conversations, and that’s something we’ll continue to do,” Angels GM Perry Minasian said Monday. “It’s still early. We haven’t seen Santa yet. And so we’ll see how the rest of the offseason shakes out, we’ll see what we have in a six-man rotation, five-man rotation. We’ll debate everything, go through it. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again — with what he’s accomplished over the last two years, if you’re going to change that, there has to be a really good reason.”
One good reason: It would require less starting pitching depth, an area the Angels have struggled with mightily in recent years. They currently field what looks like a solid five-man staff with Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Reid Detmers and Tyler Anderson, who was signed to a three-year, $39 million contract in the middle of November. But they don’t have a clear-cut sixth starter, and they don’t necessarily have the organizational depth to sustain many injuries.
With their payroll already on a record pace — and salaries for starting pitchers skyrocketing — trimming their rotation to five might allow the Angels to more aggressively plug clear holes at shortstop and in the back end of their bullpen. — Alden Gonzalez
1:40
Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers break down the pitchers whose names are buzzing around the league.
Don’t expect the Dodgers to spend big
The Los Angeles Dodgers appeared to be an ideal landing spot for Justin Verlander, but the Mets snagged him with a two-year, $86 million contract. They had conversations with Trea Turner’s representatives, but they didn’t come close to matching the Phillies’ 11-year, $300 million contract. Both instances illustrated what the industry had been anticipating — that the Dodgers, while always lurking, don’t figure to spend much this offseason.
Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has frequently expressed the desire to give some of his young players an opportunity in the big leagues, but the team also seems hesitant to blow past the luxury tax threshold for a third consecutive year and absorb those penalties.
Turner’s departure left a hole at shortstop, but Friedman has said Gavin Lux can fill it by sliding over from second base. The Dodgers could use another starting pitcher, but any rotation additions might come on the margins. Center field is a hole, but Friedman brought up using Trayce Thompson or Chris Taylor there if Cody Bellinger doesn’t return. The versatility on their position-player roster, at least, gives the Dodgers flexibility on the types of players they can add.
“We feel really good about the group we have in place,” Friedman said. “Now we have some work to do to supplement around it, add more talent around it, and we’ve talked about a lot of different iterations that takes us down different paths and adds players in different ways, whether through the trade market or through the free agent market.” — Gonzalez
Brewers’ top prospect to make an impact next year?
While discussing the process of putting together next season’s roster, Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell talked about the importance of introducing players from the minor leagues into the mix, saying that among others, infield prospect Brice Turang could get time at the second base slot opened up by the recent trade of Kolten Wong to Seattle.
Counsell also mentioned another more surprising possibility for next year’s team: Jackson Chourio, who emerged last season as one of the game’s most dynamic prospects. While Counsell wasn’t exactly penciling Chourio into his 2023 lineup just yet, he said, “He did so much, why would you say no to it?” The “it” in that statement meaning the notion of Chourio ascending to Milwaukee at some point in the season to come. In other words, the Brewers aren’t putting any limits on their top prospect.
Chourio, who won’t turn 19 until shortly before the start of next season, has just two professional seasons under his belt, topping out with a six-game appearance at Triple-A Biloxi at the end of the 2022 campaign. Overall, Chourio hit .288/.342/.538 with 20 homers, 75 RBIs and 16 stolen bases across three levels. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had Chourio as his No. 8 prospect in his midseason rankings. — Bradford Doolittle
Phillies give Turner $300 million deal
Shortstop Trea Turner and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on an 11-year, $300 million contract, a source tells ESPN.
2:05
Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers go down the list of notable outfielders available in free agency.
Mets get Verlander — how will ace’s other suitors respond?
Justin Verlander has chosen a new home, joining the Mets on a two-year, $86 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Monday. The Mets — desperate to fill holes in their rotation with Jacob deGrom joining the Rangers and Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker still free agents — now boast six Cy Young awards on their staff between Verlander and Max Scherzer — two future Hall of Famers who have maintained their peaks into their late 30s.
And now a lot of teams will need to pivot.
Verlander’s market was particularly robust given that he would only require a short-term contract and was not tied to a qualifying offer. But a lot of teams still need starting pitching. The Astros, Verlander’s former team, might not, given their depth. But the Blue Jays and the Dodgers, previously linked to Verlander, certainly do. The Rangers and the Angels, who signed Tyler Anderson early in the offseason, could still stand to add. And a host of others — the Braves, Orioles, Cardinals and Phillies among them — need to bolster their rotations.
Carlos Rodon is by far the best starting pitcher remaining and will generate a lot of interest this week. But the trade market will also pick up. One team to watch is the Marlins, who are interested in using their organizational starting pitching depth in an effort to bolster their offense. Their preference would be to add a center fielder. Pablo Lopez in particular has been shopped around. — Gonzalez
Latest on the four top free agent shortstops
The shortstop market isn’t close to being figured out. With four players being sought after by up to 10 teams, it might take a while. But the deeper into the offseason we go, according to one executive, the less likely it becomes any of them will re-sign with their old teams. (The exception is Carlos Correa, who could sign back with the Twins as kind of an old team/new team re-signing). There’s no great indication who might sign first. — Jesse Rogers
Why Verlander could be the next big name to sign
There’s an expectation Verlander will sign soon now that deGrom is off the board. A majority of executives remain firm in their belief he’ll leave the Astros. — Rogers
How early starting pitcher signings have set the bar
The market ($11 million to $13 million per year) for the second tier of free agent pitchers has been set. The conversations now are revolving around total packages. Mike Clevinger got one year. Zach Eflin got three. Agents like the Eflin package, which totaled $40 million. — Rogers
Winter meetings predictions
Who will be the biggest name to sign in San Diego?
Bradford Doolittle: Jeff Passan recently wrote that there is a good possibility Aaron Judge’s free agency will end before the winter meetings conclude. Judge is the biggest name on the free agent market. So you don’t have to be Aristotle to see the logic in declaring that Judge will be the biggest name to sign.
Buster Olney: Judge’s situation is a lot like that of deGrom — he’s going to get a whopper contract, as the top free agent on the board, but there aren’t a lot of suitors. It seems likely he has already heard the best offer he’s going to hear from the Giants, and from the Yankees. Agents who are not involved in the negotiations are predicting he’ll do something in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Joon Lee: Judge. There’s going to be a massive domino effect after he signs and likely sets the market for the biggest contract. The Yankees will have so much of their offseason plans shaped around the outcome of what happens with the slugger and how they approach spending money this offseason, especially with a fan base that is as impatient for a championship as they’ve ever been.
David Schoenfield: Judge makes sense. Because he actually has fewer teams in pursuit of his signature than some other marquee players, all he has to do is make a decision. His market is independent of everybody else, so while it can benefit players at other positions — like the four shortstops — to wait for the dominoes to start falling, there is no advantage for Judge to wait. And if it’s between just the Yankees and Giants, that decision can come in San Diego.
Jesse Rogers: Justin Verlander. He doesn’t seem like a “wait until February” guy. His market isn’t necessarily tied to Judge. Pitchers are beginning to sign, and Verlander should sooner rather than later. He’s also unique compared to those other pitchers in that he’s older, which means he’s probably not a guy looking for opt-outs and things of that nature.
What is the one rumor that will dominate the week?
Olney: Verlander’s situation, which might mirror what happened with Trevor Bauer’s free agency a couple of years ago, with a showdown between the Dodgers and the Mets. He’s a future Hall of Famer and coming off a Cy Young Award, and will have an immediate impact — and both of these teams need him.
The Mets just lost another future Hall Famer in deGrom and have massive holes in their rotation, and could really use a plug-and-play star — and Verlander’s contract structure (high salary, short-term deal) fits the Dodgers’ preferences. With Bauer, the Mets thought they had the right-hander signed before the Dodgers swooped in at the end to pluck Bauer away; both sides will be well aware of that history as they go through the process.
There is a lot of conversation in front offices about how Max Scherzer and Verlander might not be the greatest of friends, and whether that factor might impact the Mets’ pursuit of Verlander, but remember — in Buck Showalter’s days with the Diamondbacks, he managed Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, Hall of Fame caliber pitchers who weren’t close but naturally pushed each other.
Doolittle: Of all the shortstop-related scuttlebutt, the Twins’ pursuit of Carlos Correa seems like the most advanced story thread. That suggests Correa could be the first domino to fall in the derby to land him, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson. Maybe it won’t mean Minnesota ends up holding a big news conference to announce that Correa will return to the Twin Cities — or maybe it will. But I could definitely see Correa discussions looming over the meetings, not just because he’s a star player in his own right, but because his signing could set off a chain reaction through the rest of the market.
Schoenfield: I’ll go with all the rumors surrounding the Mets. With three starters and their top two setup relievers from 2022 all in free agency, they have some big moves to make — which could possibly include a splash, like signing Verlander to replace deGrom atop their rotation. But they’ll need at least one more starting pitcher after that, maybe two, some relievers … oh, and a center fielder to replace Brandon Nimmo if he signs elsewhere. The Mets say they want to hold on to their prospects, and while Francisco Alvarez is untouchable, they might have to consider some trades as well.
Lee: I’m so curious what’s going to happen with the Xander Bogaerts situation in Boston. The Red Sox’s front office — both privately and publicly — has dramatically changed its tone in its willingness to give him a big contract. While there are certainly business reasons to not sign Bogaerts — especially given the questions surrounding how long he will remain a shortstop — the fan base has been growing angrier at the organization regarding the attitude around signing star players, which started with the Mookie Betts trade. If Bogaerts leaves, Boston will need to be aggressive in free agency to upgrade the team because patience in wearing thin among Red Sox Nation.
Rogers: No matter where you turn, the topic will undoubtedly find its way to Judge. Will he or won’t he leave New York? It’s not exactly the same storyline as Babe Ruth leaving the Red Sox for the Yankees — but it’s damn close.
AVONDALE, Ariz. — Kyle Larson knew he wasn’t going to catch Denny Hamlin in the final laps on Sunday, not without the sort of help that only a caution flag can bring.
Larson got his lucky break.
Hamlin only got heartbreak.
Larson is now a two-time NASCAR champion after denying Hamlin what would have been his first career title when a late caution at Phoenix Raceway sent the championship-deciding finale into overtime.
Without that caution, which came with three laps to run, Hamlin had it locked up and was ready to finally shed the label of greatest NASCAR driver to never win a championship. But fellow title contender William Byron got a flat tire and hit the wall to bring out the caution, and a few minutes later, it was over.
“Just unbelievable,” Larson said. “I cannot believe it.”
Neither could Hamlin.
“I really don’t have much for emotion right now. Just numb about it ’cause just in shock,” Hamlin said after consoling his crying daughters on pit road. “We were 40 seconds away from a championship. This sport can drive you absolutely crazy because sometimes speed, talent, none of that matters.”
When the caution for Byron came out, Hamlin led the field down pit road and got four new tires on his Toyota; Larson only took two tires on his Chevrolet. It meant Larson was fifth for the two-lap sprint to the finish, with Hamlin back in 10th.
With so little time to run down Larson, Hamlin came up short with a sixth-place finish as Larson finished third. Ryan Blaney, who was eliminated from title contention last week, won the race.
“You do have to feel for that group and Denny. Doing a good job all day, it not playing out for him. But that is racing. It sucks sometimes,” Blaney said. “They can hang their head about it, but they should be very proud about the effort. They had the fastest race car here. Just one of those things where it doesn’t work out. Looked like it was going into his favor, unfortunately for him, it didn’t.”
It is the second championship for Larson, who won his first title in 2021 when he joined Hendrick Motorsports.
As Larson celebrated, Hamlin sat in his car motionless for several seconds, then wiped his face with a white towel, never showing any emotion.
Larson, who has been in a slump since his disastrous Memorial Day attempt to race both the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on the same day, was also in shock.
“We didn’t lead a lap and won the championship,” Larson said. “We had an average car at best and had the right front [tire] go down, lost a lap and got the wave around, saved by the caution with the wave around. It’s just unbelievable. What a year by this motorsports team.”
When Hamlin finally got out of his car he embraced his crew members but it was a scene of disbelief among the Joe Gibbs Racing crowd. Team members were crying, some sitting in shock on the pavement; Gibbs himself stood silent, one hand on his hip and a look of disbelief on his face.
It is the sixth shot at a title to slip away from Hamlin in his 20 years driving for Gibbs. He led 208 of the 319 laps and started from the pole.
“Nothing I could do different. I mean, prepared as good as I could coming into the weekend and my team gave me a fantastic car,” Hamlin said. “Just didn’t work out. I was just praying ‘no caution’ and we had one there. What can you do? It’s just not meant to be.”
He said crew chief Chris Gayle made the correct call with four tires, but too many others took only two, which created too big of a gap for Hamlin to close on Larson in so little time.
The 44-year-old Virginia native had been extremely jinxed in five previous championship finales, with bad luck, bad strategy and bad cars breaking his heart in 2010, 2014, 2019, 2020 and 2021. Sunday was his first time eligible in the winner-take-all race in four seasons.
Hamlin was remarkably loose and calm all week, rented three houses in Scottsdale for 30 friends and family, won the pole and then dominated Sunday’s race.
He just didn’t close it out.
“Man, if you can’t win that one, I don’t know which one you can win,” Hamlin said.
Larson was OK during the race, but hasn’t won since early May, a slump that has now extended to 24 consecutive races.
Hamlin teammate Chase Briscoe finished 18th in his debut in the championship finale, while Larson teammate Byron was 33rd after his late issue. He felt awful for ruining Hamlin’s chance even though his Hendrick Motorsports teammate won the championship.
“I’m just super bummed that it was a caution obviously. I hate that. Hate it for Denny. I hate it for the 11 team,” Byron said. “I mean, Denny was on his way to it. I hate that. There’s a lot of respect there. I obviously do not want to cause a caution. If I had known what tire it was, known that a tire was going down before I got to the corner, I would have done something different.”
-
Kyle Bonagura
Close
Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
-
Mark Schlabach
Close
Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While there was stability at the very top of the college football hierarchy in Week 10 — with Ohio State and Indiana rolling to big wins — there were plenty of surprises and consequential results further down the pecking order.
The biggest shockwaves came in the ACC, where Georgia Tech suffered its first loss of the season, Miami lost for the second week in a row and Virginia emerged in sole possession of first place. If the Cavaliers can hold on and win the ACC championship, they would be a most unlikely participant in the College Football Playoff.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: North Texas to the playoffs? Sure, why not? After ending Navy’s undefeated season Saturday, the Mean Green are positioned as well as anyone else to win the American, which will likely result in a playoff spot. You can drum up a scenario where San Diego State gets picked from the Mountain West, but the American champion is in the driver’s seat. And picking from the league’s pool of options is tough: Navy, Memphis, North Texas, Tulane, South Florida and East Carolina all have just one conference loss. The Mean Green have been the most impressive over the past three weeks.
Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State means the ACC no longer has an undefeated team, which stands as another indicator the ACC will be a one-bid league. Is that team Virginia? The Cavaliers’ only loss of the season also came against NC State, but that was classified as a nonconference game, so they’re still undefeated in league play. Regardless, it’s hard to be optimistic about the chances any ACC team will win a first-round game.
Schlabach: It was another unpredictable Saturday in college football with three teams in the AP Top 10 falling. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of chaos over the final month of the regular season, too.
Vanderbilt’s dream season hit a road bump at Texas, as Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning threw for 328 yards with three touchdowns in a 34-31 victory. The Longhorns have won four in a row after most of us left them for dead. They’ll play at Georgia in two weeks, followed by home games against Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Georgia Tech suffered its first loss of the season in an ugly 48-36 defeat at NC State. The Wolfpack had 583 yards of offense, including 243 rushing, as Tech’s defense had no answers. The Yellow Jackets will play surging Pittsburgh and rival Georgia in their final two games, so they’ll have to get things fixed quickly.
Georgia Tech, Miami, Vanderbilt and Navy all fell out of my 12-team bracket. I replaced them with Texas Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia and Memphis.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Half of this week’s projected quarterfinal field — Texas A&M, Alabama, Oregon and BYU — was off this weekend in what felt like a quiet one for college football. The only change for me here from last week is that Georgia Tech is gone, with BYU in its place. The Cougars travel to Texas Tech this week in what might be the most consequential conference game outside the SEC and Big Ten the rest of the way.
BYU is following a similar script to last season, when it started 8-0, only to lose twice late in the year and miss out on a trip to the Big 12 title game. Things are tight again in the Big 12, so this is as close as it gets to a must-win game for both teams.
Schlabach: My quarterfinal matchups largely remained unchanged from a week ago, although Texas Tech replaced Georgia Tech in one of the games.
The CFP selection committee members wouldn’t admit it, but hopefully they’ll tweak the final rankings to avoid the intraconference matchups in my bracket. There are all-SEC matchups in the Cotton Bowl and Sugar Bowl, and an all-Big Ten contest in the Orange Bowl.
Texas Tech and BYU are in the driver’s seat for a Big 12 title, and I’m not sure the unbeaten Cougars are getting enough love nationally. They’ve already beaten Utah and Iowa State, and they’ll have a chance to make an emphatic statement when they play the Red Raiders on Saturday.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP national championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: With Ohio State and Indiana both winning decisively, there is no reason to revisit the title game projection. They continue to look like the two best teams in college football and haven’t showed any signs of slowing down.
Schlabach: Ohio State and Indiana continued to roll this week. The Buckeyes got off to a slow start before dismantling Penn State 38-14. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in their next three games — a road trip to Purdue and home contests against UCLA and Rutgers — before closing the regular season at rival Michigan in the Big House on Nov. 29.
Indiana also got off to a slow start before routing Maryland 55-10 on the road. Indiana has won its past three games against Michigan State, UCLA and Maryland by a combined 120 points. It doesn’t figure to get much more difficult over the Hoosiers’ final three games against struggling Penn State (road), Wisconsin (home) and Purdue (road).
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Central Michigan
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Marshall
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Florida State
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Temple vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Western Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Northwestern
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. Troy
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Iowa State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: SMU vs. Minnesota
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Washington State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. LSU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Troy vs. UTSA
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Washington
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: TCU vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: Miami vs. Washington
-
Bill Connelly
Two top-10 teams fell on the road to unranked opponents. A third fell to a lower-ranked team. No. 5 Georgia flirted with disaster, as always, and just because nothing is allowed to make total sense in the ACC, No. 15 Virginia and No. 16 Louisville also thought hard about face-planting before rallying.
Week 10 didn’t give us quite as many absolute disasters as it could have, and the damage was mostly contained to the increasingly chaotic ACC. And with two-thirds of the 2025 college football season done, we now shift into Playoff Hyperdrive.
Let’s look back on Week 10 with help from the construct I used for the Week 10 preview: Playoff Tiers.
Updated playoff tiers
The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season come out Tuesday, and using a combination of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and odds driven by my SP+ rankings, we can pretty easily bunch teams into groups of playoff likelihood. The tiers didn’t change all that much this weekend, though conveniently, each team that lost fell into the tier below.
Tier 1
Indiana (9-0, 99.5% average playoff odds) — def. Maryland 55-10 Saturday
Ohio State (8-0, 99.3%) — def. Penn State 38-14
Texas A&M (8-0, 95.7%)
With A&M off and Indiana and Ohio State winning by a combined 93-24, nothing changed here. These are the three most likely teams to make the CFP, and while the playoff committee could overthink and try to talk itself into ranking Alabama ahead of A&M or something because of ranked wins, the Aggies deserve the edge to me, both because of their road win over Tier 3’s Notre Dame and the extremely important fact that they didn’t lose to a 4-4 Florida State team like the Tide did.
Tier 2
Ole Miss (8-1, 83.6%) — def. South Carolina 30-14
Oregon (7-1, 75.6%)
Alabama (7-1, 74.0%)
BYU (8-0, 69.3%)
Texas Tech (8-1, 68.5%) — def. Kansas State 43-20
Georgia (7-1, 54.1%) — def. Florida 24-20
With Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State on Saturday, the Yellow Jackets dropped from Tier 2 to Tier 3, but with a surprisingly comfortable road win over a smoking hot Kansas State, Texas Tech jumped from Tier 3 to 2. I’m curious how the CFP committee might view the Red Raiders, a team with eight wins by at least 23 points and a lone loss coming without starting quarterback Behren Morton. Their strength-of-schedule numbers aren’t very good, but they ace the eye test, and if “best” is supposed to matter over “most deserving,” well, they’re fourth in SP+.
Georgia, meanwhile, is uninterested in passing “eye tests.” The Bulldogs once again painted themselves into a corner, this time spotting rival Florida a 20-17 lead and letting them drive into field goal range midway through the fourth quarter. But they rallied once again, stuffing Jadan Baugh on fourth-and-1, immediately driving for a touchdown, then forcing a four-and-out and winning the game. They look impressive for about one quarter per game, but they’re 7-1 with a Tier 2 win over Ole Miss and a lone loss to Tier 2 Bama. The road still features games against Texas and Georgia Tech, however.
Tier 3
Notre Dame (6-2, 41.1%) — def. Boston College 25-10
Virginia (8-1, 37.6%) — def. California 31-21
Louisville (7-1, 37.1%) — def. Virginia Tech 28-16
Texas (7-2, 33.5%) — def. Vanderbilt 34-31
Georgia Tech (8-1, 30.2%) — lost to NC State 48-36
Tier 3 is evidently the transition tier. Of last week’s four Tier 3 teams, one moved up with a win (Texas Tech), and two moved down with losses (Miami, Vanderbilt). Meanwhile, it caught Georgia Tech on the way down and Texas on the way up. And with all the other chaos in the ACC, two one-loss teams that won as favorites Saturday (Virginia and Louisville) saw their conference title odds rise by solid amounts. They also moved up from Tier 4.
Tier 4
Oklahoma (7-2, 27.0%) — def. Tennessee 33-27
Vanderbilt (7-2, 26.8%) — lost to Texas 34-31
Utah (7-2, 24.2%) — def. Cincinnati 45-14
Miami (6-2, 17.9%) — lost to SMU 26-20
USC (6-2, 14.0%) — def. Nebraska 21-17
Washington (6-2, 13.6%)
Missouri (6-2, 10.7%)
Michigan (7-2, 10.5%) — def. Purdue 21-16
Pitt (7-2, 6.9%) — def. Stanford 35-20
Duke (5-3, 6.4%) — def. Clemson 46-45
Iowa (6-2, 6.0%)
SMU (6-3, 5.7%) — def. Miami 26-20
Oklahoma and Vanderbilt both have decent enough odds that I could have slipped them into Tier 3, but since they’ve both lost to Tier 3 Texas, and head-to-head matchups between two-loss SEC teams could matter a lot, we’ll go ahead and put them here. At this point, Tier 4 is a mix of two-loss Big Ten and SEC teams (OU, Vandy, USC, Washington, Mizzou, Michigan, Iowa), two-loss Big 12 and ACC teams that either have impressive wins (Miami) or are simply smoking hot (Utah, Pitt) and three-loss ACC teams that still have a puncher’s chance at the conference title (Duke, SMU).
Tier (Group of) 5
James Madison (7-1, 27.7%) — def. Texas State 52-20
North Texas (8-1, 26.4%) — def. Navy 31-17
Memphis (8-1, 15.9%) — def. Rice 38-14
USF (6-2, 13.9%)
San Diego State (7-1, 8.9%) — def. Wyoming 24-7
There’s still a scenario in which, say, SMU wins the ACC at 10-3 but ranks behind a pair of one-loss Group of 5 champions, and the G5 ends up with multiple bids. That said, one G5 bid is still far and away the most likely scenario, and that race remains awfully interesting. JMU impressed enough in San Marcos last Tuesday that the Dukes jumped from 50th to 36th in SP+. They aren’t going to finish with a great résumé — their most impressive performance was a loss to Louisville in which they were tied in the fourth quarter before a fumble recovery touchdown put them behind — but they look the part enough that they should feel good about their chances if they finish 12-1 to win the Sun Belt, and the American Conference champ is 11-2.
Still, it’s clear the American winner, whoever it ends up being, is most likely to score the bid even if JMU’s odds are better than any single team.
What Tuesday’s rankings should look like
For the past couple of years, I’ve been fiddling with what amounts to a BCS-ish formula, derived half from the AP poll and half from a combination of both computer power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and computer résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and Strength of Record). With a few exceptions — Alabama over Florida State in 2023, SMU over Alabama in 2024 — it tends to adhere pretty closely to what the committee ends up deciding.
Tuesday’s rankings will be the first since the CFP committee began using “enhanced metrics to help evaluate schedule strength,” however. What does that mean in practice? I have no idea. So in anticipation of Tuesday’s release, let’s look at four rankings for the teams most likely to be ranked by the committee: 1) their AP poll ranking; 2) their ranking in this BCS-ish formula; 3) their Strength of Record ranking and 4) their Résumé SP+ ranking.
This obviously adheres pretty closely to the tiers above, but it gives us a good idea of what to look for Tuesday night. If the committee really is taking strength of schedule or strength of record further into account — and for the record, I really don’t think it needed to — then we might expect teams that are more well regarded by the computers to win some arguments. Texas A&M would definitely rank ahead of Alabama in this case, and BYU might rank higher as well. Also, two-loss Texas and Vanderbilt would likely trump one-loss Louisville and Georgia Tech.
All in all, I think the top 11 on Tuesday should end up looking almost identical to the AP poll, while the spots from No. 12 to No. 21 could end up in pretty much any order.
A hypothetical playoff simulation, because why not?
Based on where teams are most likely to rank this week (via the BCS-ish rankings above) and which teams are currently most likely to win their conferences (per SP+), here’s what I’m going to call Week 11’s playoff bracket.
9 Texas Tech at 8 BYU
Winner plays 1 Ohio State
12 North Texas at 5 Georgia
Winner plays 4 Alabama
11 Louisville at 6 Oregon
Winner plays 3 Texas A&M
10 Notre Dame at 7 Ole Miss
Winner plays 2 Indiana
We’ll see a shakeup following Week 11’s Texas Tech-BYU battle in Lubbock, but for now, this gives us Notre Dame’s first-ever trip to Oxford, a potential playoff rematch between Indiana and Notre Dame in the quarterfinals and another Alabama-Georgia playoff game (this time in the quarterfinals). Based on current SP+ rankings, it would also give us these national title odds based on 10,000 simulations:
Hypothetical title odds based on the above bracket:
1-seed Ohio State 30.6%
2-seed Indiana 28.2%
6-seed Oregon 12.4%
3-seed Texas A&M 7.4%
4-seed Alabama 6.8%
9-seed Texas Tech 5.6%
5-seed Georgia 3.0%
10-seed Notre Dame 2.4%
7-seed Ole Miss 1.7%
8-seed BYU 1.1%
11-seed Louisville 0.4%
12-seed North Texas 0.2%
And because odds alone aren’t very satisfying, I grabbed a random simulation from the batch of 10,000. Here’s what’s officially going to happen this postseason. You can stop watching now.
(Please don’t stop watching.)
FIRST ROUND
Texas Tech over BYU in Provo
Georgia over North Texas in Athens
Oregon over Louisville in Eugene
Notre Dame over Ole Miss in Oxford
QUARTERFINALS
Rose Bowl: Texas Tech over Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama over Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M over Oregon
Orange Bowl: Indiana over Notre Dame
SEMIFINALS
Peach Bowl: Alabama over Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl: Indiana over Texas A&M
FINALS
Indiana over Alabama in Miami
If you Google Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, as he told you to a couple of years ago, it might soon tell you that he’s a national title-winning head coach.
5 other random thoughts from Week 10
Damn, Mario. By Mario Cristobal’s standards, his late-game management against SMU wasn’t a crime against humanity or anything, but after SMU tied the game with 25 seconds left, Miami got the ball back with a timeout in hand and a quarterback Cristobal paid loads of money for … and the Hurricanes kneeled out the clock to go to overtime. Granted, Carson Beck’s dreadful overtime interception, which set up SMU’s winning touchdown, certainly didn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t matter how much money you shell out if you’re still going to play by “Three things can happen when you pass, and two are bad” rules in the 2020s.
But since Cristobal took over at Miami in 2022, his Hurricanes have lost five games as double-digit favorites; only Alabama can match that total, and (A) Bama has been a double-digit favorite 50% more often and (B) three of the Tide’s five such losses came in a small cluster of games last season. Cristobal has lost at least one such game each year that he’s been in charge. Death, taxes and Miami suffering a catastrophic loss it should have put away.
Holy (whistle) smokes (whistle), Arkansas (whistle). Generally speaking, penalties and penalty yards don’t correlate to wins and losses as much as you might think. Committing a lot of penalties can often signify that you’re properly pushing the limits from an aggressiveness standpoint, and of the 66 teams to have suffered more than 100 penalty yards in a game this season, 38 ended up winning the game.
It’s nice to know there are limits, however. Arkansas committed 18 penalties for 193 yards against Mississippi State on Saturday, the third most for any FBS team in any game over the last 10 seasons. Only Kansas (216 yards in a win over UNLV in 2023) and Northern Illinois (194 in a win over Eastern Illinois in 2017) can top that number. But while those teams still managed to win, Arkansas’ discipline ran out late. Mississippi State scored 17 points in the game’s final 11 minutes to overcome a 14-point deficit and win 38-35. If Sam Pittman hadn’t already been fired, he probably would be now. (And it probably goes without saying that interim coach Bobby Petrino hasn’t shined enough to justify hiring him full time, though I’m sure you can still find an Arkansas booster advocating for it.)
So many close SEC games. We can question whether the SEC has a team the caliber of Ohio State or Indiana this season, but we cannot question its commitment to competitiveness. The league featured six games Saturday, five were decided by one score — including both of its ranked-versus-ranked encounters — and the sixth was within one score with 12 minutes left. For the season, the league has had 43 conference games to date, with 26 decided by one touchdown or less. It’s been close enough overall that Arkansas somehow (A) ranks first in the league in points per drive in conference play and (B) is 0-5 in conference play.
Close games will define the rest of November, too. Texas A&M (5-0 in SEC play) has two road games with a projected margin of less than two points, and despite being pretty close to the finish line the Aggies have higher odds of losing two or more in November (27%) than reaching 12-0 (25%).
Alabama (5-0) has three conference games remaining, and all three are projected within single digits, two within one score. SP+ gives the Tide only a 25% chance of winning its four remaining games, with 26% odds of losing at least twice.
Georgia’s odds, meanwhile, are almost identical — the Bulldogs (5-1) have two projected one-score SEC games remaining (at Mississippi State, Texas), plus a one-score visit to Georgia Tech. The result: a 25% chance of winning out and a 30% chance of losing at least twice.
Texas (4-1) actually looked the part for most of Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt, but the Longhorns are projected underdogs in two of three remaining games (at Georgia, Texas A&M), and Arkansas is not a gimme. Odds of winning out: 15%.
Ole Miss (5-1) has the most navigable path of any major conference contender, with only Florida and Mississippi State remaining in SEC play. Odds of winning out: 54%. Then again, the Rebels lost to Florida last year, and the Egg Bowl lives for nonsense.
Colorado looks done done. Over its last two games against Utah and Arizona, Colorado was projected to lose by a combined 23.1 points. The Buffaloes instead lost by 81. Last week’s 53-7 loss to Utah was almost understandable in retrospect (the Utes just walloped Cincinnati, too), but they were equally moribund in Saturday evening’s home loss to Arizona. And based on a weighted average of recent performances (where the most recent game carries more weight), they are officially the team that is underachieving the most against current SP+ projections.
There are plenty of other teams staggering and/or falling at the moment – Syracuse, Penn State, Louisiana-Monroe, Delaware, Maryland, Texas State, Bowling Green – but CU leads the pack. And if the Buffs can’t beat West Virginia in Morgantown this coming weekend, a 3-9 finish begins to look awfully likely. Would that increase the odds of Deion Sanders stepping down at the end of the season?
DeSean Jackson was a spectacular hire. Remember in the offseason, when Norfolk State (Michael Vick) and Delaware State (DeSean Jackson) went the Deion Sanders/Eddie George route and hired celebrated former players as their head coaches? Vick was the bigger headline-grabber – he’s Michael Vick, after all – and he has struggled in year one, as you might expect from a first-time head coach. Norfolk State went 4-8 and finished 101st in FCS SP+ last season; the Spartans are just 1-8 and 115th this season. They have a couple of semi-winnable games left against Morgan State and Howard (they will likely get drubbed by N.C. Central this coming week), but it’s been a year of growing pains.
For Jackson and his Hornets, however, it’s been the exact opposite story. DSU went 1-11 and finished 123rd in SP+ last season, and they haven’t finished higher than 5-6 or 83rd over the past decade. Last Thursday’s win over Vick’s NSU, however, brought them to 6-3 and 54th overall. They’ve already upset N.C. Central, and if they can win a tossup game at home against S.C. State in Week 13, they’ll win their first MEAC title since 2007 and score their first Celebration Bowl bid. It’s looking like Jackson was one of the best hires of last offseason’s coaching carousel.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings are updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Fresno State: up 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 93rd to 78th)
East Carolina: up 3.4 points (from 61st to 48th)
Florida State: up 3.3 points (from 34th to 24th)
Louisiana Tech: up 3.3 points (from 76th to 67th)
Western Kentucky: up 3.1 points (from 88th to 72nd)
Buffalo: up 2.9 points (from 99th to 87th)
James Madison: up 2.8 points (from 50th to 36th)
Arizona: up 2.8 points (from 43rd to 31st)
UTSA: up 2.7 points (from 70th to 65th)
North Carolina: up 2.5 points (from 98th to 89th)
The ACC’s oddities didn’t stop at the games involving ranked teams. Duke’s win over Clemson was the most statistically unlikely result of the week — Duke somehow won despite a mammoth efficiency disadvantage (success rate: Clemson 58.3%, Duke 37.5%) — and in Tallahassee, Florida State somehow transferred all of its bad vibes to its opponent. Wake Forest collapsed under the weight of its mistakes and the Seminoles’ sudden excellence, and the teams basically traded seven points: FSU moved up 3.3 and, as you’ll see below, Wake moved down 3.7.
Meanwhile, this is the faintest of praise, but since bottoming out at 103rd in SP+ three weeks ago, North Carolina has rallied to 89th, suffering a pair of gut-wrenching losses and finally getting off the schneid with a thumping of quarterback-less Syracuse. The Tar Heels will have to pull at least a pair of upsets to have any hope of bowling, but improvement can be encouraging in and of itself.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Wake Forest: down 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 56th to 68th)
Cincinnati: down 3.5 points (from 23rd to 32nd)
Maryland: down 3.3 points (from 37th to 51st)
Georgia Tech: down 3.2 points (from 25th to 34th)
Boise State: down 3.0 points (from 47th to 55th)
Colorado: down 3.0 points (from 68th to 82nd)
UCF: down 2.9 points (from 51st to 56th)
Rutgers: down 2.5 points (from 63rd to 69th)
Sam Houston: down 2.4 points (no change from 135th)
South Carolina: down 2.4 points (from 54th to 61st)
Georgia Tech entered Week 10 as the lowest-ranked unbeaten power-conference team by a comfortable margin. After getting pushed around by NC State, the Yellow Jackets are lodged between 4-5 Auburn and James Madison in SP+.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Jeff Sims, Arizona State (13-for-24 passing for 177 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 228 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Iowa State).
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (20-for-23 passing for 316 yards and 4 touchdowns against Penn State).
3. CJ Bailey, NC State (24-for-32 passing for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 41 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Georgia Tech).
4. Jordan Marshall, Michigan (25 carries for 185 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 25 receiving yards against Purdue).
5. Owen McCown, UTSA (31-for-33 passing for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns against Tulane).
6. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (17 carries for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 30 receiving yards against Boston College).
7. Arch Manning, Texas (25-for-33 passing for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns against Vanderbilt).
8. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (25-for-35 passing for 408 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against NC State).
9. Darian Mensah, Duke (27-for-41 passing for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns against Clemson).
10. Melkart Abou Jaoude, North Carolina (6 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Syracuse).
Jeff Sims is the journeyman prototype for the transfer portal era. He has started 28 career games at three schools (Georgia Tech, Nebraska and Arizona State), and in those, he has produced some duds — 10 games with a Total QBR under 30.0, three under 10.0. But he has also thrown for more than 250 yards five times and rushed for 100 or more yards (not including sacks) seven times. And on Saturday in Ames, Iowa, he painted a Sims-ian masterpiece, throwing the ball reasonably well but ripping off an 88-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and nearly doubling his previous career high in rushing.
Sims is quite obviously not a Heisman contender, but one of the reasons I love this Heisman of the Week approach is that we can celebrate when guys like Sims do something beautiful. He even topped nearly perfect performances from Julian Sayin and Owen McCown and a gutsy, hobbled game from CJ Bailey.
Honorable mention:
• Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-for-31 passing for 235 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 95 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Rutgers).
• Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (12-for-18 passing for 264 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 102 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Texas State).
• Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (12-for-16 passing for 271 yards and a touchdown, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Wake Forest).
• Evan Dickens, Liberty (22 carries for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns against Delaware).
• Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (33 carries for 197 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 9 receiving yards against Navy).
• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-44 passing for 365 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Miami).
• Jayden Scott, NC State (24 carries for 196 yards and a touchdown, plus 11 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).
• Danny Scudero, San Jose State (7 catches for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns against Hawai’i).
Through 10 weeks, here are your points leaders. I’ve bolded the guys who are also in the top 12 in the current Heisman betting odds.
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25)
3T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (25)
5. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
6T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
8. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10T. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (13)
10T. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (13)
We might be approaching a “Winner takes the No. 1 seed, winning QB takes the Heisman” game between Sayin’s Ohio State — the current Heisman betting favorite, per ESPN BET — and Mendoza’s Indiana in the Big Ten championship game in four weeks. Simpson, Chambliss and Stockton still have clear paths to impress, however, and with Love shifting into fifth gear over the past two games (a combined 41 carries for 364 yards) he might catch voters’ eyes if he keeps ripping off 94-yard touchdown runs.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1 and 2. SMU 26, No. 10 Miami 20 (OT) and Duke 46, Clemson 45. Obviously, Miami was the main character in Saturday’s loss, but what a performance by SMU. Kevin Jennings nearly landed on the Heisman of the Week list with 365 yards, a TD pass and a TD run, and the Mustangs’ defense, much improved of late, allowed just one gain of more than 25 yards, forced Miami to go the length of the field and pounced on mistakes. A great performance in a frustrating season.
Meanwhile, because Manny Diaz is a soccer fan, I can confidently say he’ll know what I mean when I say Duke pulled an absolute smash-and-grab in Death Valley, overcoming a massive efficiency disadvantage with a kick return score and not only a 5-for-5 performance on fourth down but 29 points scored after a fourth-down conversion. The Blue Devils remain in the ACC title race, and Clemson has only about a 39% chance of bowling, per SP+.
3. Division II: No. 7 CSU-Pueblo 24, No. 6 Western Colorado 21. I love it when one of the Smaller-School Showcase games in my Friday preview lives up to its billing. Unbeaten WCU bolted to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, but CSU-Pueblo had tied it by the end of the third quarter, with help from an 88-yard Roman Fuller-to-Marcellus Honeycutt Jr. touchdown pass. In the end, the Thunderwolves won with special teams: First, Jusiah Sampleton blocked a 47-yard field goal attempt with 4:01 left; then, after a 20-yard pass on third-and-16, Jackson Smith knocked in a 32-yarder as time expired.
4. FCS: No. 25 Abilene Christian 31, No. 2 Tarleton State 28. Tarleton State was the best FCS team not named North Dakota State heading into the weekend, and after entering the fourth quarter down 28-10, the Texans rallied to tie it with 56 seconds left. But a 38-yard pass from Stone Earle to Bryan Henry set up Brandon Perez‘s 47-yard buzzer-beater. TSU is unbeaten no more.
5. No. 5 Georgia 24, Florida 20. This game would rank higher if Georgia hadn’t been involved, but the Bulldogs have pulled the football version of the “Call the ambulance … but not for me” meme too many times, falling behind and then winning with perfect late execution. Regardless, it was a fun, tense way to spend an afternoon even if I didn’t doubt the outcome.
6 and 7. FCS: Idaho 35, Northern Arizona 32 (OT) (Friday) and Idaho State 38, No. 6 UC Davis 36. Drama in the Big Sky! On Friday night in Flagstaff, Arizona, Idaho watched a 26-7 lead turn into a 29-26 fourth-quarter deficit, but Owen Adams nailed a 42-yard field goal at the buzzer, and after forcing an overtime field goal, the Vandals walked it off with a short Hayden Kincheloe touchdown.
On Saturday in Davis, California, Idaho State, which has felt pretty close to an upset win all season, got one thanks to a 219-yard rushing performance from Dason Brooks and a 50-yard, final-minute field goal from Trajan Sinatra, the best-named kicker this side of Florida’s Trey Smack.
0:26
Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal
Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal
8. Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 35. After heartbreaking losses to Texas and Florida extended MSU’s SEC losing streak to 16 games (and more than two calendar years), it would take something special to end the streak. Like a game-ending 17-0 run, 193 penalty yards from Arkansas and a monstrous 18-yard catch and touchdown run from Anthony Evans III.
9. New Mexico 40, UNLV 35. If you watched this one as I advised, you were rewarded. New Mexico played catch-and-release, losing leads of 21-0 and 34-21, but with the game on the line, the Lobos executed a perfect, eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, taking the lead on a 13-yard D.J. McKinney run, then making two late stops to move to 6-2 and secure bowl eligibility. It’s hard to say enough about the job Jason Eck has done there in Year 1.
10. Division II: West Texas A&M 53, Texas A&M-Kingsville 48. There should always be room for a nutty track meet on this list, and if you missed the first eight minutes of this one, you missed (1) a 74-yard return on the opening kickoff, (2) a 26-yard touchdown on the first offensive play, (3) a sack-and-strip fumble, (4) a 99-yard kick return, (5) two turnovers on downs and (6) a 43-yard touchdown pass. West Texas A&M took a 22-6 lead from all of that, Kingsville responded with a 22-3 run to charge ahead, and we got six more lead changes from there. Goodness.
11. NAIA: No. 14 Indiana Wesleyan 56, Taylor 48.
12. No. 20 Texas 34, No. 9 Vanderbilt 31.
13. No. 18 Oklahoma 33, No. 14 Tennessee 27.
14. Oregon State 10, Washington State 7.
15. FCS: Central Connecticut 10, Long Island 7.
16. NAIA: Cumberland 40, Cumberlands 37.
17. Minnesota 23, Michigan State 20 (OT).
19. Division II: Chowan 34, Erskine 30.
20. Division III: Wesleyan 34, Williams 28 (OT).
The midweek playlist
Here’s your quick reminder that the CFP rankings are only the second-biggest landmark of the coming week. That’s right: IT’S MIDWEEK MACTION TIME. And we start with a doozy.
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Tuesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2). Miami has won five straight since an 0-3 start, and Ohio, the defending champ, has won four of five. The winner of this one will be your odds-on MAC favorite.
UTSA at USF (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN). USF needs to win out to keep AAC title (and playoff) hopes alive, and UTSA is coming off by far its best performance of the season.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024