In the lead-up to the MLB winter meetings in San Diego, the buzz was that it could be a wild week of rumors, news and moves — and the meetings delivered all of that and then some.
Need a breakdown of everything that happened this week? We asked our MLB experts who were on the scene in San Diego to identify the moves that impressed — and confused — them most and to give their biggest winners and losers of all the hot stove action.
What is your biggest takeaway from Judge’s deal with the Yankees?
Bradford Doolittle: Yankees mystique still matters, especially when it’s bolstered by a third of a billion dollars. Look, the Yankees had to get this done. If they can’t keep a player and personality like Judge in the fold, then they really are just another big market team. And maybe that’s all they are anyway, but as long as Judge is bashing homers in the Bronx, they will remain in the spotlight. He’s a pretty good player, too.
Alden Gonzalez:Simply put: This is what needed to happen. The Yankees have no identity without Judge, no obvious place to pivot to fill what would have become a massive hole both on the field and in their clubhouse. As the process played out, it became clear that the San Francisco Giants were motivated to present the highest offer. The Yankees needed to elevate to a place that felt uncomfortable. And they did.
Jeff Passan: Judge played his free agency to near-perfection, knowing that the pain the Yankees would feel from losing him exceeded the discomfort that comes from the $40 million-a-year price tag over the next nine seasons.
Joon Lee: This might not have been the best move when it comes to building a baseball team for the long term, given how much the Yankees will be paying Judge in the last few years of his contract — but New York needed to close this deal. Sometimes you need to make a move that will make the fans happy at the expense of future financial flexibility, and owner Hal Steinbrenner knew that.
Jesse Rogers:That leverage works. If Judge waited for the Yankees to bid up the price just because he’s Aaron Judge, he’d still be waiting. Players don’t get leverage of this kind often. He used it and it paid off.
What was your favorite move of the winter meetings, aside from Judge’s contract?
Doolittle:The St. Louis Cardinals had to get a starting catcher and I love that they went the free agent route to find a worthy successor to Yadier Molina. Willson Contreras has different strengths from Molina, but his individual winning percentage through age 30 (.517) is actually better than Molina’s was at the same age (.512). He isn’t the defender Molina was — few catchers are or have been — but he’s at least league average by the metric and his bat is a big upgrade. Contreras’ competitiveness will also help replace some of Molina’s omnipresent intensity. The Cardinals haven’t had to worry about catching for a long, long time and now they won’t have to for another half-decade at least.
Gonzalez: Turner’s 11-year, $300 million deal with the Phillies. Not because the Phillies will attain proper value for the length of that contract — chances are they won’t, of course — but because of what it represents. Turner is a perfect fit for them now, as a rangy shortstop who will be dynamic in the leadoff spot of a lineup that looks appreciably more menacing at the moment. The Phillies, who also added to their rotation and their bullpen, did what they needed to do coming off a pennant. The National League East is going to be a lot of fun.
Passan: There’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and to get a player of Cody Bellinger caliber – elite center field defense and a bat that in 2019 was good enough to win the NL MVP award – for $17.5 million, in his age-27 season no less, is the sort of value bet that in this market stands out for its minimal downside and significant upside.
Lee: A move I thought went a little bit under the radar was Josh Bell going to the Cleveland Guardians. Bell struggled once he got to San Diego, but he’s historically a streaky player. Cleveland needed to find some power from someone other than José Ramirez and acquiring a slugger on a pretty reasonable two-year deal for $33 million adds a lot of potential firepower to this lineup, a difference that could have helped the Guardians push past the Yankees in the playoffs in 2022.
Rogers: Oh, it’s definitely Contreras leaving the Chicago Cubs for their archrivals in St. Louis. After he spent 14 years in the organization, the Cubs didn’t make him a single offer this offseason while St. Louis made him rich. They believed in him, and now the Cubs are searching for his replacement. It’ll make for not only some juicy head-to-head matchups over the next five years, but also a motivated player. Fans will undoubtedly have mixed emotions seeing him wear red instead of blue, though time will tell which team got it right.
What one move had you scratching your head the most?
Doolittle: I kind of talked myself into not loving the Jameson Taillon/Cubs fit but even then I gave it a B-. If the Cubs manage to make an even bigger splash or two, the context on that signing would shift and I’m not sure I’d be as blasé about it. I don’t really have a big problem with any of the bigger moves. The Baltimore Orioles made me roll my eyes by signing Nomar Mazara to a free agent deal, but that was just a minor league contract. Good job, baseball.
Gonzalez: The Cardinals’ five-year agreement with Contreras. Contreras is going to provide the Cardinals with far more offensive value, but he is not very well regarded for his game-calling or his overall defense. And he’ll be succeeding one of the greatest ever in those aspects in Yadier Molina. Still: Contreras gives the Cardinals a major boost as someone who will produce in the middle of their lineup while handling a premium position. They needed a catcher. And if it wasn’t going to be the Oakland Athletics’ Sean Murphy, this was the best they could do.
Passan: Signing stars is the sort of thing winning franchises do, so it’s difficult to fault the San Diego Padres’ full-tilt pursuit of Turner and Judge. But $280 million for 11 years of shortstop Xander Bogaerts – who is 30 years old – constituted an industry-rocking contract. The runner-up: Boston giving Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida a five-year deal that, including the posting fee, will cost $105.4 million. Bogaerts is a potential Hall of Famer and Yoshida has All-Star-level talent, but the price tags staggered rival executives.
Rogers: Since it technically happened within the past week, I’d say the Texas Rangers giving all that money to Jacob deGrom. Why five years? Why not three? Ok, maybe four to make sure you got him — but five? Yikes.
Lee: Committing that much to deGrom concerns me. The Rangers are certainly spending a lot of money, but how all of it actually fits together is the actual question. Some of the big-ticket free agents signed over the past few years have a lot of questions for this year and beyond.
Who is the most interesting player who didn’t sign — and where do you see him going?
Doolittle: I think Carlos Correa is perhaps the most interesting guy in baseball who could be like a latter-day Connie Mack if someone just let him do all of the jobs. He hasn’t signed, so there’s my default answer. Rocco Baldelli talked about how engaged Correa has remained with pretty much everyone in the Minnesota Twins organization, from the hitting coaches to the players to Baldelli himself. Maybe I’m reading too much into that, but I feel like if the Twins can match the number Correa gets from the marketplace, they have a great shot of bringing him back. But I’m not sure that the number is going to end up being something they can match.
Gonzalez: I’ll go with Dansby Swanson, simply because Turner and Bogaerts found a home this week. Swanson — unlike Correa — hasn’t been prominently linked to his former team. His market still seems a bit hazy. The Cubs feel like a natural fit, but perhaps the Los Angeles Angels make a run. GM Perry Minasian, who knows Swanson from their days in Atlanta together, said Wednesday that the team would be willing to exceed the luxury-tax threshold for the right player. Swanson would certainly qualify.
Rogers:Carlos Rodon. From questions about his durability a couple years ago to the next best thing after deGrom and Verlander, he’s going to get a huge payday. The Yankees could use him but don’t count out the silly money the Rangers have been throwing around. And there’s always one player that signs with a team that seemingly comes out of nowhere. I give that possibility to Rodon as well. He’s the best of the rest.
Lee: Rodon. Some team is going to pay him like the premium pitcher he’s been the past few years, but I’m curious what kind of length and financial commitment he’ll end up getting, especially with the market blowing up the way that it has and deGrom and Verlander both signing for more money than expected.
Who is your biggest winner — and loser — of the winter meetings?
Passan: The biggest winner: Players. With MLB revenues reaching record levels in 2022 and a new collective-bargaining agreement helping push along the market, big leaguers are poised to set a record for guaranteed money in one offseason. Salaries grow, yes, and inflation is very real, certainly, but nearly every deal exceeded expectations, perhaps portending a sea change in how players are paid.
The biggest loser: Bargain hunters. Perhaps once the best players get off the board, the lower-revenue teams that have been spooked by free agent prices will enter the fray and try to grab players at depressed prices. And yet the lingering specter of FOMO could compel even the tightwads of the game to reconsider their postures, lest they enter the 2023 season with a roster that could deepen the have/have-not divide fomented by teams unwilling to do what the Padres
Doolittle: No one who works in the commissioner’s office will admit this, especially Rob Manfred, but they have to feel like huge winners now that Judge is headed back to New York. Anyone who knows me understands that I write these things as anything but a Yankees fanboy, but I do think it’s good for baseball that Judge will continue to play at Yankee Stadium.
As for the loser, the Red Sox roared around the final turn and passed everybody during the stretch run of the meetings. There were two contracts I didn’t love – Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida – and then the failed to meet Xander Bogaert’s market and now he’s headed to San Diego. Fortunately for Chaim Bloom and the front office, it’s a forgiving fan base. That’s sarcasm.
Gonzalez: The biggest winner is, of course, Judge. He made a massive bet on himself this season, then won the MVP and secured nearly $150 million more with his massive nine-year, $360 million deal.
Lee: Judge is definitely a winner coming out of these meetings. He’s cemented himself as the face of the franchise and the heir apparent to Derek Jeter.
Rogers: Trea Turner is the biggest winner. There was a time that only .900 to 1.000 OPS players could get $300 million. Now, an .809 mark makes you one of the richest athletes in the country. Granted, he does so much more than slug and get on base. The point being shortstops are now commanding what slugging corner outfielders are getting. That position has come a long way. His deal can’t be something he even imagined a few years ago.
The biggest loser — so far — is the Boston Red Sox. Kenley Jansen? Eh. OK. Masataka Yoshida? We’ll see. And now losing Bogaerts is going to have a lot of fans in Boston wondering what their front office will do from here. They need to get it going.
For teams that aren’t playing in their conference championship games, this is it — the final chance to make a lasting impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
For some contenders, like Ole Miss, their regular-season résumé is now complete, and what happens in the fifth ranking on Tuesday night should be a strong indicator of their final placement on Selection Day. Others, like Miami, are banking on hope and help — and most importantly, one more win. It all began with the Egg Bowl on Friday — a game that not only kept Ole Miss in the playoff, but also technically in the SEC race.
That’s right — this thing is far from over, so check back after each game to see how the results will impact the playoff as the day unfolds.
Texas 27, Texas A&M 17
Rivalry Week presented its first shakeup of the top four when No. 16 Texas beat No. 3 Texas A&M — but it might not be all that jarring in the fifth ranking. The Aggies will likely drop to the 4-6 range behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins including a 35-10 drubbing of … Texas. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama), and has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game. The question is just how far Texas A&M will fall now that it has joined No. 5 Texas Tech, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Ole Miss in the one-loss club. The Aggies entered the weekend with a noticeable edge over Texas Tech in both strength of record (23 to 56) and strength of schedule (1 to 10). It’s possible the committee only drops the Aggies one spot, flipping them with Georgia, which means they’d still be in position to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed. There would be a strong debate, though, about whether the Aggies, Texas Tech or Oregon, the latter which has impressed the committee lately by ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, deserves the highest seeding. The Aggies’ problem now is that they’d have to finish in the top four as an at-large team because they just got knocked out of the SEC title game.
While Texas now has arguably the best win in the country, it probably won’t be enough to catapult it into the top-10 as a three-loss team. Even with some upsets above them, it’s unlikely Texas would get higher than No. 12.
Indiana 56, Purdue 3
Indiana clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game with its win against rival Purdue, locking in a CFP bid and beefing up its chances at keeping a first-round bye on Selection Day. The Hoosiers, who have been the committee’s No. 2 team in each of the first four rankings, still have a chance of grabbing the No. 1 spot in Tuesday’s ranking if Ohio State loses to Michigan. If the Buckeyes lose and Oregon wins Indiana will face Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If Michigan wins and Oregon loses the Hoosiers will face Michigan for the conference title.
The question is whether IU can maintain a top-four seed and a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up. If Indiana lost the title game, the committee would consider where their opponent was ranked and how close the game was. The Hoosiers would also be compared with other top one-loss teams, but playing a ranked opponent in the conference championship game — win or lose — would boost IU’s record strength by the committee’s metric.
Georgia 16, Georgia Tech 9
Georgia should keep its place as the committee’s top one-loss team following its win against rival Georgia Tech. Georgia’s Oct. 18 win against Ole Miss, along with their win at Tennessee and drubbing of Texas, impressed the committee. The Bulldogs’ consistency on offense and defense has also played well with the committee. Georgia’s first-round bye would only be in question at this point if it finishes as a two-loss SEC runner-up.
Barring an unusual combination of ACC results, No. 23 Georgia Tech will be out of the playoff at 9-3. The only way the Yellow Jackets can extend their playoff hope is through the ACC championship game. They entered the weekend with a 1.5% chance of making the game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19
With its win against rival Mississippi State on Friday, Ole Miss likely locked up a playoff spot and remains in a strong position to host a first-round home game. If Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday, Ole Miss will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Even if it doesn’t, though, the one-loss Rebels should still be a CFP lock.
As for the uncertainty still looming around coach Lane Kiffin, if Ole Miss turns to an interim head coach for the playoff, the selection committee could consider that. CFP protocol states the group will consider “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoff because Kiffin left for another job, but it could get dinged a spot or two if the committee thinks the team won’t be the same without him.
Utah 31, Kansas 21
No. 13 Utah punctuated its résumé with a win against 5-7 Kansas, but it’s still unlikely to reach the playoff without multiple upsets of teams above it — especially after just being leapfrogged by No. 12 Miami in the latest CFP ranking. Even with a win, to reach the Big 12 championship game, Utah still needs Texas Tech to lose and for both BYU and Arizona State to win. The Utes’ best hope to reach the CFP is still as an at-large team.
Getting that bid isn’t inconceivable if a combination of two-loss teams above them lose. If Oklahoma, Alabama and Miami lose, it would be difficult for any of them to stay in the top 12 as three-loss teams. Utah would need at least two of them to lose to move into the top 10, which is where it would need to be to actually be seeded in the field. The No. 11 and No. 12 teams this year will be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions.
AUSTIN, Texas — Arch Manning threw a touchdown pass and ran for the clinching score late in the fourth quarter, and No. 16 Texas rallied to upend No. 3 Texas A&M27-17 on Friday night, spoiling the Aggies’ undefeated season and knocking them out of the Southeastern Conference championship game.
Manning’s 29-yard touchdown pass to Ryan Wingo in the third quarter gave Texas (9-3, 6-2 SEC) a 13-10 lead in what had been a tight, defensive game. His 35-yard run up the middle on third down with 7:04 left to play put the Longhorns up 27-17.
Texas, which started the season No. 1 and, at one point, was unranked, defeated a top-10 opponent for the third time this season to keep alive any faint hopes of making the College Football Playoff for the third consecutive time.
“In the locker room, you could see it, that we had 30 minutes together to see if we can keep playing this season,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told ESPN’s Molly McGrath in his postgame, on-field interview, referring to his halftime speech. “And they sure played like it in the second half.”
The Aggies (11-1, 7-1) are all but assured their first playoff berth, but the loss to their biggest rival will sting the program for a long time. Texas A&M has never played for an SEC title since joining the league in the 2012 season.
Meanwhile, despite three losses, the Longhorns feel they’ve made their case for a playoff berth, as well. Texas lost to Ohio State, Georgia and Florida.
“You tell me. That team is undefeated. No. 3 in the country, and a lot of the pundits out there think they are the No. 1 team in the country,” Sarkisian said when asked if his team’s win over the Aggies should push Texas into the CFP. “We just beat them by 10.”
The Aggies led 10-3 at the half.
“These guys fought. We were physical, we were tough,” Sarkisian said. “We created turnovers, we ran the ball, and we made the plays in the passing game when we had to. It was awesome.”
STARKVILLE, Miss. — Lane Kiffin said he’ll decide Saturday whether he will return as Ole Miss‘ coach in 2026 or take another job, presumably at LSU, which is trying to poach him from its SEC rival with a lucrative contract offer that will make him one of the highest-paid coaches in college football.
Kiffin, while speaking to reporters after the No. 7 Rebels’ 38-19 victory at Mississippi State in Friday’s Egg Bowl at Davis Wade Stadium, would only say that he’ll have to make a decision one way or the other, after Ole Miss athletics director Keith Carter and chancellor Glenn Boyce said they needed an answer by Saturday.
“I feel like I’ve got to,” Kiffin said.
When Kiffin was asked if he had made up his mind about where he’ll be coaching next season, he said, “Yeah, I haven’t. Maybe that surprises you. But, you know, I’ve got to do some praying and figure this thing out.”
Kiffin said he planned to attend his son’s high school playoff game in Tupelo, Mississippi, on Friday night. Knox Kiffin is Oxford High’s starting quarterback.
“Tonight, I’m going to go be a dad and watch a more important game to me,” Kiffin said.
Kiffin wasn’t sure what time he would make a decision Saturday.
“There’s a lot [that goes] into it,” Kiffin said. “It’s a hard decision. You guys have them all the time. You’ve got to make decisions about jobs you take and where you move, and we get paid a lot so I understand we’re under a lot of spotlight and scrutiny.”
Kiffin said he regretted not being able to speak to his father, Monte Kiffin, while trying to make one of the most important decisions of his career. The longtime NFL defensive coordinator died in July 2024. He was 84.
Kiffin, 50, has sought the advice of former Alabama coach Nick Saban and Las Vegas Raiders coach Pete Carroll, his former boss at USC, the past few weeks.
ESPN reported earlier Friday that Florida, which was also courting Kiffin, is now focused on other candidates in its search because the Gators believe he’s more interested in other opportunities.
Carter and Boyce met with Kiffin a week ago in Oxford, Mississippi, and the sides came to an understanding that Kiffin would make up his mind the day after the Egg Bowl.
If the Egg Bowl was Kiffin’s last game as Ole Miss’ coach, it was a fitting end to one of the most successful tenures in school history.
As speculation about Kiffin’s future continued to swirl over the past two weeks, the Rebels rolled past their rivals for their fifth win in the past six meetings in the heated series. The Rebels had 545 yards of offense, as quarterback Trinidad Chambliss passed for 359 yards with four touchdowns.
The Rebels (11-1, 7-1 SEC) all but secured a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff. They’ll have to wait another day to find out whether they’ll play in next week’s SEC championship game in Atlanta.
No. 3 Texas A&M would have to fall at No. 16 Texas on Friday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) and No. 10 Alabama would have to lose at Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC) for the Rebels to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game.
And, of course, Ole Miss fans will be waiting Saturday to find out which coaches will be on the sideline for the CFP, which might begin with a first-round game at home on Dec. 19 or 20.
If Kiffin decides to leave for LSU, former New York Giants coach Joe Judge would likely serve as the Rebels’ interim coach in the CFP, sources told ESPN.