The small pipeline playing an oversized role in the energy crisis

Published

2 years ago

December 8, 2022

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The chances are you haven’t heard of the BBL pipeline.

It’s a 235km steel tube which runs under the North Sea between Balgzand in the northern tip of the Netherlands and Bacton in Great Britain.

It’s one of those bits of innocuous infrastructure which, most of the time, no-one except energy analysts pay all that much attention to.

But let’s spend a moment pondering this pipe, because it could prove enormously consequential for all of us in the coming months.

Indeed, BBL has already played a silent but essential role in the Ukraine war and, for that matter, the fate of Europe, because this is one of the two main pipelines transporting gas between the UK and Northern Europe.

Actually, BBL is the smaller of the two pipes, the other of which is the rather unimaginatively-named “Interconnector” pipe. But the reason it’s worth focusing on BBL is because in the past few days something rather interesting happened there.

Before we get to that, though, it’s worth reminding ourselves of the big picture here, the challenge facing Europe: a desperate shortage of energy.

Here’s the best way of understanding it: this time last year, Europe (including the UK) was consuming roughly 85 billion cubic metres of natural gas a month. Of that, about 21 billion cubic metres (bcm) – roughly a quarter – came via Russian pipelines.

That gas didn’t just go into our boilers and gas-fired power stations.

It was a feedstock which helped us manufacture chemicals and fertilisers.

It fed us, it fuelled industry, it helped keep the lights on.

In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, suddenly Europe couldn’t take that 25% of its energy for granted any more. And indeed, most of the Russian supply has since dwindled (it’s now down 81% to about 4bcm a month).

And so much of what might today be categorised as economic news – the rocketing rate of inflation, the squeeze on household incomes and the recession we’re now sliding into – really comes back to this gap, between the gas we used to consume and the gas we can now lay our hands on.

And the short answer is that getting hold of that extra gas isn’t easy at all.

Partly that’s because most of the non-Russian sources which are already pumping gas into European pipelines (which is to say: mainly Norway but, to a lesser extent, the UK, Netherlands and Algeria) are already producing about all they can.

These days you can ship gas (in the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), a supercooled liquid) across the ocean from Qatar and the US, but that depends on a few things.

The first is actually getting hold of that gas. The UK on Wednesday published details of a new “US-UK Energy Security and Affordability Partnership” which aims to provide more LNG to the UK. That matters because Britain and Europe are essentially competing with China and other Asian nations on global markets for these cargoes.

The second (and perhaps even more important) factor is having terminals where you can receive and re-gasify the LNG and then feed it into your domestic pipeline network.

But there are only so many of these ports and regasification facilities in Europe. Germany, for instance, has none (though it’s got some temporary capacity coming up soon). The UK has lots. Indeed, it has more LNG capacity in its three ports (two at Milford Haven, one at Isle of Grain) than Belgium and the Netherlands have in total.

The logic of this was that back at the start of the conflict, it looked quite plausible that the UK would become a sort of energy “land bridge” across which gas could be transited to Europe. And that indeed is precisely what happened, which brings us back to the pipeline crossing from the UK to the north of Europe.

Over the past year, a stupendous amount of LNG has been coming into UK ports, drawn in by the stupendously high gas price, from where it has been transferred across the UK’s pipeline network and thence into the European system.

To put this into perspective, in the four summers since 2017, the average amount of natural gas transferred from the UK was around 5.7 trillion cubic metres. This past summer the total was 20.5 trillion cubic metres.

It’s worth dwelling on this for a moment, for it represents one of the under appreciated stories of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Much of the gas which replenished the storage facilities in Europe, which should help them survive the coming winter while keeping homes heated, despite the absence of Russian gas, came via the UK – via the BBL and Interconnector pipelines.

And that’s actually understating it, because those pipelines were only so wide, and so could only carry a certain proportion of the LNG flowing into the UK, but what also happened this summer is that UK gas power plants went into overdrive, burning that gas and turning it into electricity, which was also fed via undersea cables into Europe.

This mattered. Much of France’s nuclear power fleet was out of action this summer as water levels in French rivers ran too low to provide the necessary coolant. British electrons were part of the explanation for why the lights never went out in France.

This astounding flow of gas (which of course has its own climactic consequences) caused some interesting price fluctuations this past year. As we reported earlier in the summer, it helped suppress UK day-ahead gas prices down to surprisingly low levels.

For a period in May and June, the UK wholesale gas price was less than half the level in continental Europe – because the UK was awash with all these natural gas molecules trying to fit themselves into these steel pipes coming out of Bacton.

But in recent weeks those flows have begun to drop, which brings us to the interesting thing that changed in the past few days.

For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the extraordinary rollercoaster in the gas market, a small quantity of natural gas begun to flow back into the UK.

It’s important not to overstate this. The numbers are very small indeed. But it’s a reminder that actually, in “normal” times, these pipelines serve a very different purpose from the one they’ve served in recent months.

Britain doesn’t have much domestic storage for natural gas. While Germany has about 266 terawatt-hours of storage capacity, the UK has only 53, barely enough to keep boilers going for more than a week or two.

However, the UK strategy in recent years has been to use Europe as a kind of storage system. Think of these underground caverns as a kind of bank.

You deposit gas in them in the warm months and take it out when it gets cold. And in “normal” times the UK has “deposited” its gas in Europe in the summer, sending much of the stuff that came out of the North Sea (and some stuff from those LNG terminals) across the two pipelines and those molecules went into European storage.

And in winter, the UK would typically “withdraw” the gas from Europe when it got cold and it needed a little more for peoples’ boilers. Into Europe in the summer; out of Europe in the winter.

But that brings us to this winter. The UK has put an extraordinary amount of gas into European storage in the summer. What happens if it gets really cold? In any normal winter, it would need to get that gas out of Europe via those pipelines. But this, of course, is not a normal winter. There is a chance that the remaining flows of gas from Russia dry up further, meaning there could be a real shortage. In such circumstances, what happens?

If the market carries on working, then that would push up prices high on continental Europe, but the logic is that in order to attract that gas across the channel, the UK would have to pay even higher prices than continental Europe. In other words, while prices in the UK have been lower than Europe for most of the summer, they could well be higher than Europe for most of the winter.

There is a sign that this is already happening.

In the past couple of days, those prices have converged. But there is also a scarier question: what if the market doesn’t function, because of political interference? What if European nations decide that storage in, say Germany (or for that matter the European Union) cannot leave? Where does that leave the UK, which tends to rely on those pipeline flows from Europe in the event of a cold snap.

The short answer is that no-one really knows. What we do know is that this story isn’t over yet. Gas prices are already eye-wateringly high, especially when you consider that the Government is effectively subsidising them. It’s not implausible that they get even higher.

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Energy price cap: Typical yearly energy bill to fall by £129 from July, Ofgem announces

Published

3 hours ago

May 23, 2025

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Energy price cap: Typical yearly energy bill to fall by £129 from July, Ofgem announces

Households on the energy price cap will see a 7% reduction in their average annual payments from 1 July, the industry regulator has announced while urging households to seek out the “better deals out there”.

The default cap – which is reviewed every three months – will see a typical household using gas and electricity and paying by Direct Debit stump up an average annual £1,720, Ofgem said.

That is down from the current April-June figure of £1,849 and reflects a reduction in wholesale gas prices.

Money latest: How energy price cap dip will affect me

The lower cap, however, will be £152 higher than the same three-month period last year.

It does not affect the millions of households to have taken a time-limited fixed deal.

Nevertheless, it represents some relief for families grappling with the cost of living aftershock that saw many essential bills rise by well above the rate of inflation last month.

Ofgem also confirmed further bill savings through a £19 average cut, from July, in standing charges for households paying by both direct debit and prepayment, following an operating cost and debt allowances review.

The price cap does not limit total bills because householders still pay for the amount of energy they consume.

The watchdog’s announcements were made just days after fresh forecasts suggested that bills linked to the cap could come down further from both October and January, given recent wholesale market price trends.

Industry data specialist Cornwall Insight estimated on Friday that the price cap was currently on course to rise only slightly in October – by less than £1 a month.

Wholesale gas costs last winter had been relatively stable until a cold snap hit much of Europe in January and early February, driving up demand at a time of weaker stocks.

Other risk factors ahead include extended EU gas storage rules and global conflicts, not least the continuing Russia-Ukraine war that sparked the 2022 energy price spike and cost of living crisis in the first place.

Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “A fall in the price cap will be welcome news for consumers, and reflects a reduction in the international price of wholesale gas. However, we’re acutely aware that prices remain high, and some continue to struggle with the cost of energy.

“The first thing I want to remind people is that you don’t have to pay the price cap – there are better deals out there, so it’s important to shop around, and talk to your existing supplier about the best deal they can offer you. And changing your payment method to direct debit or smart pay as you go can save you up to £136.”

Ofgem said that a minority of homes, 35%, were on a fixed rate deal.

Price comparison sites lined up after the price cap announcement to urge households still on the default tariff to investigate a switch.

Tom Lyon, director at Compare the Market said: “If anyone is worried about potentially higher energy bills later this year, they could consider locking in a fixed rate deal now.

“Fixed rate deals also protect you from price hikes if the oil and gas markets are volatile. Beyond your energy bills, it’s important to search and compare other household bills, such as your car insurance, credit cards, or broadband, to see if you can make savings.”

Business

Telegraph sale ‘agreed in principle’ after two-year ownership impasse

Published

5 hours ago

May 23, 2025

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Telegraph sale 'agreed in principle' after two-year ownership impasse

A £500m deal to end the two-year ownership impasse at the Daily Telegraph has been agreed “in principle”, it has been announced.

A consortium led by US firm Redbird Capital was set to take control of Telegraph Media Group (TMG), with state-backed Abu Dhabi investment vehicle IMI among the investors.

The pair’s original joint venture, known as RedBird IMI, had originally agreed to buy the Telegraph titles in 2023.

But prospects for a deal were held up by the previous Conservative government’s subsequent ban on foreign state ownership of UK newspapers.

Money latest: Brits urged to leave energy price cap

The row centred on the involvement of IMI’s owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who is the owner of Manchester City FC but also the vice president of the United Arab Emirates.

The ban was based on fears around editorial independence.

However, the rules were relaxed earlier this month by the current government, which said a foreign state-controlled holding of up to 15% was acceptable.

It is understood that UK-based media investors are among the proposed owners within the consortium.

Sky News reported on Monday that the Daily Mail’s owner had been in talks over involvement.

The Telegraph newspaper itself reported that regulatory hurdles remained – a factor that could yet scupper completion of the deal.

Anna Jones, TMG chief executive, said: “Telegraph Media Group is an award-winning news media organisation, with exceptional journalism at its heart, supported by leading commercial expertise, a commitment to innovation and a laser focus on data to drive strategy.

“RedBird Capital Partners have exciting growth plans that build on our success – and will unlock our full potential across the breadth of our business.”

RedBird, whose other UK interests include a 10% stake in the US group behind Liverpool FC, said its growth strategy would include “capital investment in digital operations, subscriptions and journalism”.

Its statement continued: “RedBird will build on the strong financial foundations established by the current management team and will work with them to grow the brand internationally, with a focus on the United States where RedBird has a strong strategic presence across news, media and sports.

“Together, RedBird and TMG senior leadership will work to develop new content verticals in areas such as travel and events to maximise the commercial opportunities from a growing international and mass affluent subscriber base.”

Redbird founder Gerry Cardinale added: “This transaction marks the start of a new era for The Telegraph as we look to grow the brand in the UK and internationally, invest in its technology and expand its subscriber base.

“We believe that the UK is a great place to invest, and this acquisition is an important part of RedBird’s growing portfolio of media and entertainment companies in the UK.”

Business

Investors descend on Trump’s golf club for $148m meme coin dinner amid protests

Published

6 hours ago

May 23, 2025

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Investors descend on Trump's golf club for 8m meme coin dinner amid protests

Donald Trump hosted a dinner for investors in his meme coin on Thursday, as critics warned the US president was putting personal profit first.

Some 220 of the biggest investors in the $TRUMP meme coin descended on the exclusive dinner at Mr Trump’s private country club in Northern Virginia.

As the US president arrived, more than a hundred protesters at the Trump National Golf Club held signs that included “America is not for sale”, “stop crypto corruption” and “release the list”.

Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren described the dinner, where the US president spoke for about half an hour before dancing to the song YMCA, as an “orgy of corruption”.

Access to the dinner, and the president, was earned by purchasing enough of his $TRUMP meme coin to secure a seat.

The White House insisted Mr Trump would attend the event “in his personal time”, but the lectern he stood behind had the presidential seal.

NBC News reported that during his remarks, Mr Trump did not unveil any new crypto policies but spoke in support of a potential bitcoin reserve and then left promptly afterward.

In total, investors spent an estimated $148m (£110m), with the top 25 holders of the coin spending more than $111m (£82.56m), according to crypto intelligence firm Inca Digital.

A company controlled by the Trump family, and a second firm, hold 80% of the remaining $TRUMP coins and have so far earned $320.19m (£238.14m), including at least $1.35m (£1m) after the dinner announcement, according to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.

‘Trump a very successful businessman,’ says White House

According to blockchain analysis, more than half of the 220 holders who attended the black-tie event are likely based outside the US.

This has led to claims the US president has auctioned off access to himself to foreign investors for personal gain.

In response to criticisms about Mr Trump using his office to enrich himself from the meme coin, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “All of the president’s assets are in a blind trust, which is managed by his children.

“And I would argue, one of the many reasons that the American people re-elected this president back to this office is because he was a very successful businessman before giving it up to publicly serve our country.”

Who was on the guest list?

One of those attending was China-born crypto entrepreneur and billionaire Justin Sun.

He won first place in the dinner contest with his $18.5m (£13.76m) wallet of the Trump meme coin and is the largest publicly known investor in the family’s crypto platform – which has made them hundreds of millions of dollars.

Mr Sun posted videos of himself visiting parts of the White House complex on Wednesday, and on Thursday of Mr Trump at the dinner event.

In February, the US Securities and Exchange Commission paused a 2023 fraud case against him, citing public interest.

However, the identities of the majority of the coin holders attending the event remain unknown.

Of those going, one was simply known as Ogle, a crypto security specialist who appears in video interviews with his face covered by a bandana and sunglasses.

He says this is to protect his identity.

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Even some pro-Trump crypto voices worried his personal involvement may hurt efforts to establish credibility.

“It’s distasteful and an unnecessary distraction,” said Nic Carter, a Trump supporter and partner at the crypto investment firm Castle Island Ventures.

“We would much rather that he passes common sense legislation and leave it at that.”

The event was capped off with an after-party, called “Meme The Night,” thrown by a Singapore-based meme-coin engagement company called MemeCore.