Transfer portal takeaways: Best available, potential QB fits and biggest questions per conference
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ESPN staff
College football’s transfer portal officially opened Monday, and with it came all the storylines we’ve come to expect.
QB1 is out at one blue blood program, while several Power 5 schools witnessed a mass exodus. The names filled the portal and college football fans were left to figure out what this means for their favorite school — and player — ahead of bowl season and spring football.
Our reporters came together to find out the most intriguing prospects in the portal, the best quarterback landing spots and the biggest questions facing each conference after the first three days of the open window.
My favorite available transfer is …
David Hale: It’s not the biggest name in the portal, but cornerback Fentrell Cypress II could have a big impact wherever he lands. He was a huge part of a massive turnaround for the Virginia defense in 2022, finishing the season with 13 PBUs while allowing just 5.9 yards per target as the ACC’s top-graded corner by Pro Football Focus. He’s already on the radar of several blue blood programs, and if he’s not a household name today, he could easily blossom into one of the top corners in the country in 2023.
Andrea Adelson: The quarterbacks and skill players usually get all the shine, but we can’t forget the big guys up front. That is why I think Rhode Island lineman Ajani Cornelius is so intriguing. He obviously has the size (6-foot-4, 320 pounds) that everyone is looking for in an offensive tackle. He had a dominant year in 2022, including a performance against Pitt that should go a long way toward proving he can handle FBS defensive linemen (Cornelius did not allow one pressure in that game). He also has two years of eligibility left, which helps for both roster planning and development. With over 20 offers already, including Florida, Auburn and Oregon, Cornelius will have his choice of landing spots.
Tom Luginbill: Dasan McCullough. Pass-rushers come at a premium, and outside of Jermaine Johnson two years ago, who transferred to Florida State, few have entered the portal with McCullough’s skill set and production.
Dave Wilson: Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed. His path is the story of the current era of college football. In high school, he put up big numbers in his only year as a starter and finished third in the state’s player of the year voting, but was not heavily recruited. He signed with Southern Illinois, but after redshirting his first year, he transferred to the University of West Florida in Pensacola, where he led the Argos to a D-II national championship, throwing for 4,084 yards and 40 TDs, was second-team All-American and was sixth in the Harlon Hill voting, the small-school Heisman. Reed then transferred to WKU as a grad transfer, where he threw for 4,247 yards, second in the nation, and is now back in the portal looking for his fourth school.
Tom VanHaaren: Under Ball State running back Carson Steele‘s bio, it says he has a pet alligator. So that automatically vaults him to the top for me. Outside of Steele, I would go with Braden Fiske, a defensive tackle from Western Michigan. He had 58 total tackles, 12 tackles for loss and six sacks this season for the Broncos. He’s getting interest from Notre Dame and USC among others and could be a player who shines in a Power 5 program next season.
Craig Haubert: Indiana linebacker Dasan McCullough jumps out for several reasons. A highly ranked ESPN 300 prospect in the 2022 class, he is a transfer option with still plenty of football ahead of him who has already shown signs of fulfilling his potential. His father, Deland, is the RBs coach at Notre Dame, and he contributed all season for the Hoosiers, getting several starts and registering 6.5 tackles for loss and four sacks. The portal has no shortage for WRs, DBs and even QBs, but an explosive, aggressive versatile front-seven defender with some proven experience should not be overlooked.
Alex Scarborough: Fine. Since everyone is playing it cool and not talking about the big-name quarterbacks here, I will. Say what you want about the way DJ Uiagalelei fizzled out at Clemson, but he has potential. Remember, everyone left Spencer Rattler for dead once he transferred from Oklahoma to South Carolina — and for most of the season they were right — but then he showed against Tennessee and Clemson what he’s capable of. But I’d be chasing two quarterbacks in particular: Devin Leary and Spencer Sanders. I give Sanders a slight edge because he brings more of a dual-threat skill set to the table (18 career rushing touchdowns to Leary’s five), but you can’t go wrong with that much talent and experience at the most important position on the field.
The potential QB fit I like the most is …
Adelson: DJU to UCLA. Heading back to the West Coast might be the fresh start that Uiagalelei needs, and going to a school with a head coach who has built his reputation on his offense makes this one feel like a good fit. Uiagalelei’s struggles have been well documented, but there is a valid question to be asked about whether the Clemson offense put him in a good enough position to succeed.
Tom Luginbill: Spencer Sanders to Auburn. He could have Malik Willis-type production in Hugh Freeze’s scheme. He has the ideal blend of passing prowess and dynamism. The downside is he’s got only one year left of eligibility.
VanHaaren: I agree with Andrea about Uiagalelei at UCLA, but I would like to see Devin Leary at Wisconsin with Luke Fickell. Not just because Wisconsin took Russell Wilson from NC State and saw success, but Fickell is going to need immediate help at quarterback with Graham Mertz entering the portal. Leary could come in and start from day one, elevate the Badgers’ quarterback play and get into a system that helped get Desmond Ridder to the NFL.
Craig Haubert: There are plenty of big names out there. And one who may be a long shot, but could be intriguing, is Georgia Tech‘s Jeff Sims to Florida. The Gators scored big on the recruiting trail by flipping ESPN 300 QB Jaden Rashada from Miami, but with Anthony Richardson entering the draft, there is room for an experienced QB on the roster. Sims had been inconsistent at Georgia Tech, but he is a talented dual-threat QB who has flashed big-play ability and could benefit from a fresh start. He would also give the Gators’ QB room a player in the mold of Richardson who is arguably a slightly stronger passer. Sims would likely also come in with tempered expectations as compared to some other transfer QBs, allowing for a good fit and competitive offseason QB battle.
Scarborough: I’m with Craig. I’d love to see Sims at Florida. He’d be a great fit in Napier’s offense.
Conference questions
ACC
Biggest ACC storyline to emerge: The QB exodus. The ACC entered the 2022 season billing it as “the year of the QB.” It didn’t work out so well for a number of big names, including Clemson’s Uiagalelei, NC State’s Leary and Boston College‘s Phil Jurkovec. All three have now entered the transfer portal, along with Georgia Tech’s Sims, Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong and Pitt’s Kedon Slovis. Those six QBs account for 142 games started at the schools they’re leaving. While some, like NC State, BC and Clemson have replacements on their current rosters, it still figures to be an active portal season for the league, with Louisville and Wake Forest potentially looking for veteran talent, too. In 2022, just two teams — North Carolina and Duke — entered the year without a veteran QB at the helm. At this point, they’re among the few — along with FSU, Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Pitt (where Jurkovec announced he intends to transfer) — who have a QB on the roster with more than a handful of starts to their name.
ACC contender with the most work to do in the portal: Florida State Seminoles. There are probably other teams with bigger needs in the portal, but no one in the ACC has the combination of prior portal success and potential for a huge 2023 like FSU. Mike Norvell has completely rebuilt the program through the portal, landing stars like Jermaine Johnson, Fabien Lovett, Dillan Gibbons, Jared Verse, Trey Benson and Jammie Robinson over the past two years. The only downside to that success is that he’ll need to keep going back to the well, as his transfer success stories became NFL draft picks. Still, the impact those transfers turned Florida State from laughingstock to genuine contender in the ACC, and if Norvell works his magic again this offseason, 2023 might be the year the Seminoles finally reclaim their spot at the top of the conference. — Hale
Biggest remaining question: There is little doubt Miami wants to use the portal to not only turn over its roster, but answer significant questions at key positions (wide receiver, running back, offensive line, for starters). The Hurricanes were not as successful with the portal last year, as many of the key transfers they brought in had mixed results. But after a 5-7 record in Year 1 under Mario Cristobal, there is a bigger sense of urgency to make sure the Canes use the portal to their advantage to help supplement what is projected to be a top-10 recruiting class. There was already pressure on Cristobal to get the Hurricanes back to national relevance. After a disappointing 2022, that pressure will only grow. — Adelson
Big 12
Biggest Big 12 storyline to emerge: The initial stages haven’t been overly damaging to the Big 12 teams, other than some key losses at Oklahoma State. Texas had several highly rated recruits jump in, but most of them weren’t significant contributors, and Oklahoma is in a similar situation, although the impending departure of wide receiver Theo Wease is a loss. But the Sooners and Longhorns will always draw their share of portal attention.
With Kansas State and TCU playing in high-profile games, there could still be movement, but right now, the biggest losses have come in Stillwater.
Big 12 contender with the most work to do in the portal: Oklahoma State. Now, Sanders, who has been incredibly exciting and puzzlingly inconsistent in four years as a starter, has entered his name into the portal looking for a fresh start. Star in-state recruits like Braylin Presley and Trace Ford are portal-bound. Dominic Richardson, a key member of the running back rotation, is too, along with safety Kanion Williams, who has been a team captain. Linebacker Mason Cobb, who had 96 tackles (13 for loss), is also in the portal.
Coach Mike Gundy has rebuilt over and over again and has done more with less for years. But this will be quite a test at a time when the Cowboys are looking to stand atop the new Big 12.
Biggest remaining question: Can TCU capitalize on this incredible run in Sonny Dykes’ first year? At SMU, he made Dallas a bounce-back destination for players from the area who wanted to come back home and play. Now in a Power 5 job, making the playoff in his first season, there’s proof of concept to sell recruits. After hitting on several key transfers last year like Johnny Hodges and Josh Newton, who both earned All-Big 12 honors as key pieces, can the Horned Frogs become an even bigger player? — Wilson
Big Ten
Biggest Big Ten storyline to emerge: Maryland had 14 players enter the transfer portal since the beginning of December. That included tight end CJ Dippre, who had three touchdowns in 2022, and linebacker Ahmad McCullough, who had 45 tackles, three tackles for loss and a sack this season. There aren’t a ton of star players leaving, but 14 is a significant number and will hurt the depth for a team that needs depth to make a run late into the season. Maryland coach Mike Locksley has done well in the portal in the past, so if they can replace some of those spots with contributors, it won’t be a negative for the team.
Big Ten contender with the most work to do in the portal: Penn State has added some good pieces to its roster through recruiting over the last few classes, especially with quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The Nittany Lions had a good season in 2022 with 10 wins, but their two losses were to Michigan and Ohio State. Penn State needs to add a few solid contributors from the portal to bulk up the roster while some of the high school prospects continue to develop. They’re not far off from being where they want to be, but have already been active in the portal to shore up the roster. Penn State has offered wide receiver Jimmy Horn Jr., a South Florida transfer, tight end Kyle Morlock, defensive end Elijah Jeudy, former Alabama cornerback Khyree Jackson among others. Getting some immediate contributors will help Penn State continue to improve and compete with Michigan and Ohio State in the coming years.
Biggest remaining question: Michigan doesn’t typically take in transfers unless they’re graduate transfers, Ohio State has typically built its team through recruiting and picking up a few transfers here and there, but there are a few Big Ten teams that could use big hauls from the portal,. Michigan State and coach Mel Tucker have seen success in the portal with the 2021 season, winning 10 games and plucking running back Kenneth Walker III from Wake Forest. But they have also seen the downside in 2022 when transfers don’t contribute as much as anticipated and high school prospects aren’t fully developed. In addition to Michigan State, new Nebraska coach Matt Rhule could benefit from bringing in transfer players. The question, though, is because he has been in the NFL, will he have the relationships to get in fast enough with difference makers before they make a decision. Rhule and his staff will have to work fast and be active to try to get players they want that can help from day one. — VanHaaren
Pac-12
Biggest Pac-12 storyline to emerge: The Deion Sanders era has begun in Colorado and it has kicked off with plenty of fireworks already. Sanders made news quickly upon arriving in Boulder, where a video showed him talking to current Colorado players and telling them to enter the portal. He also effectively told them his son, Shedeur, would transfer and be the Buffs’ quarterback. The message was pretty clear: change is coming. And change, in today’s game, is only quickened by the portal.
Sanders’ recruiting prowess now that he’s at a Power 5 school will inevitably seep into not just high school recruiting but transfers too. There is already chatter about Jackson State recruits (especially, no. 1 overall prospect Travis Hunter) following Sanders to Boulder and there’s no doubt Sanders is going to be making plenty of calls to players entering the portal, selling them on his vision for the Buffaloes.
It will be fascinating to see the turnover at Colorado and how much change Sanders can affect this offseason alone. The portal allows him to flex his strength in a completely different way: He doesn’t have to wait for recruits to get on campus, get acclimated and go through the learning curve that comes with making the leap from high school.
Pac-12 contender with the most work to do in portal: UCLA. The Bruins are losing some valuable seniors on both sides of the ball and, unlike their counterparts Oregon, Utah, USC, Washington and even Oregon State and Arizona, they don’t have a recruiting class (as of now) in the top-50 in the country.
The good news for UCLA is that Chip Kelly and his staff are already making moves. On Monday as the portal opened, the Bruins nabbed Cal inside linebacker Oluwafemi Oladejo to begin shoring up their defense.
Above all, the Bruins have to decide how to replace outgoing quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his incredible 2022 season. It felt like Kelly and DTR found something this season and the program would benefit in a major way if they were to continue that momentum despite a change at the position. Could they go with backup Ethan Garbers? Is freshman Justyn Martin ready? Or will they dip into the portal and try to snag a quarterback looking for a fresh start and a new home?
Biggest remaining question: How many quarterbacks will make their way West? The conference, with its inconsistent defenses and offensive-minded coaches, has become a bit of a refuge for quarterbacks looking for greener pastures.
Last season, the Pac-12 added Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix and Cameron Ward via the transfer portal, while Washington State quarterback Jayden de Laura made his way to Tucson too. Only one of the aforementioned quarterbacks (Nix) is leaving college and there’s already spots available (UCLA, Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona State) for other highly-touted quarterbacks like Devin Leary and D.J. Uiagalelei, who have already entered the portal, to consider.
The Uiagalelei landing spot will be particularly interesting to watch. The now-former Clemson quarterback is from Southern California and played at local powerhouse St. John’s Bosco. If UCLA wants to transition from the Dorian Thompson-Robinson era without having to turn to an underclassman, Uiagalelei presents an intriguing option. — Uggetti
SEC
Biggest SEC storyline to emerge: All in all, it’s been relatively quiet in the SEC so far. The only noteworthy quarterbacks to hit the portal have been Ole Miss‘ Luke Altmyer and Vanderbilt‘s Mike Wright — and neither was a starter to end the season. Arkansas‘ Malik Hornsby is on the move, but KJ Jefferson already announced that he was coming back after an injury-plagued season. Only a handful of our top-35 transfers are from the SEC: Missouri wideout Dominic Lovett, South Carolina tight end Austin Stogner, Alabama receiver Traeshon Holden and offensive lineman Javion Cohen. Given how Alabama lost two games and missed the playoff, the Crimson Tide are worth watching. So far, more than a dozen players are in the portal, including former top offensive line prospect Tommy Brockermeyer. They have needs at several key positions: receiver, offensive line and quarterback.
SEC contender with the most work to do in the portal: I’ll be interested to see if Georgia does any work in the portal. They were the only Power 5 team this season that didn’t sign a single transfer. So let’s rule them out from being overly active. To me, that leaves rival Florida as one of the teams to pay attention to. Napier did a lot in the portal during his first offseason, bringing O’Cyrus Torrence and Montrell Johnson with him from Louisiana, and signing Ricky Pearsall from Arizona State. But he needs even more help. The roster isn’t anywhere near complete, and now he’s got a starting quarterback to replace and more than a dozen players who just hit the portal. Look for Napier and his staff to beef up the trenches — the offensive and defensive lines.
Biggest remaining question: Who’s going to get a quarterback? Because there are quite a few teams with a need at the position. Florida just lost Anthony Richardson to the NFL. Stetson Bennett is finally leaving Georgia. Same for Hendon Hooker at Tennessee, Will Levis at Kentucky and Bryce Young at Alabama. Joe Milton III seems like he’ll get a long look to replace Hooker in Knoxville, but everywhere else feels wide open for competition. At Alabama in particular, dual-threat Jalen Milroe didn’t take the bull by the horns when Young was injured. While there are a few good young prospects waiting in the wings — freshman Ty Simpson and commits Dylan Lonergan and Eli Holstein — Nick Saban might not have the patience to develop a quarterback when a ready-made product is available in the portal. — Scarborough
Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.
With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.
With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.
First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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David Hale
We don’t talk nearly enough about luck in sports.
It’s only reasonable to want to believe the best team always wins, that the outcome of a game is the reward for a better process, that, in the end, we all get what we deserve.
But then you watch 10 minutes of Florida State football and it’s impossible to deny that there are football gods at work and they can be awfully vengeful.
And so it is that, at this late point in the season, the College Football Playoff rankings still hinge, in no small part, on a botched extra point at the end of Notre Dame-Texas A&M.
We can look back at Miami‘s game against SMU on Nov. 1 — a game that, with 2 minutes to go the Canes had a 90% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s metrics — and consider it a bad loss, then a week later, see Oregon — with less than a 40% chance of beating Iowa with 2 minutes remaining — pull off a comeback and have it constitute a critical point on the Ducks’ résumé.
Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma‘s yardage but lost, Ole Miss gave up 526 yards to Arkansas and won, Georgia has trailed in the second half five times this year but has just one loss to show for it.
These things happen, and while there’s clearly valuable data involved — Georgia wins those games, because the Dawgs are really good — any time we’re discussing a one-game sample size, there’s room for ample debate over what matters and what doesn’t.
The committee’s job is to counterbalance the fickleness of luck with a calculated, rational, repeatable process of evaluation that, if applied again and again by dozens of different people, would largely yield the same results; something akin to scientific testing, a way to filter out the noise and get to what matters most. “The process,” as everyone from Nick Saban to Michael Lombardi have called it.
And yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the committee’s process really is. Even when it’s explained — Miami isn’t in the same bucket as Notre Dame, so they can’t be compared directly, for example — the logic often crumbles under the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Instead, the committee has mostly relied on its own luck, and each year, by the time the final rankings are revealed, the 13 games played on the field provide enough clarity that most reasonable people will proclaim the committee got things right, save for the occasional reminder to Florida State that, yes, the football gods are not Seminoles fans.
This year though, it’s increasingly likely the committee’s luck could run out.
We have one full weekend of games left. There are reasonably 16 teams who’ll make a case as to why they should earn one of the seven coveted at-large spots. Without a little luck in Week 14, the committee’s going to have some incredibly hard choices to make.
And that means we’ve got plenty of outrage left to send the committee’s way.
This past week seemed to be the apex of the biggest rankings debate: Notre Dame or Miami?
The argument here is easy to understand. The committee has consistently had the Irish well ahead of the Hurricanes, despite both teams having the same record and Miami holding a head-to-head win.
But you know what’s even easier to understand? BYU has a better record than both.
In fact, let’s look at some résumés.
Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 19, next best vs. No. 21. Loss to SP+ No. 2. Two wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 5 strength of record.
Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 9, next best vs. No. 25. Loss to SP+ No. 3. Six wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 6 strength of record.
Both look like pretty obvious playoff teams, right?
Well Team A just moved up a spot in the rankings, seems assured not just of making the playoff, but of hosting a home game, and no one seems to be arguing about its spot in the rankings. That’s Oregon at No. 6.
Team B would currently be our first team out, a team with a résumé that shows equally impressive wins, an equally understandable loss and a far more impressive breadth of quality opponents. And yet, no one seems to be arguing much about BYU’s spot in the rankings either.
Why is it that the Cougars — the forgotten one-loss team with a higher ranked win than Oregon or Notre Dame and a better loss than Alabama or Oklahoma — sit at No. 11 and no one seems to care?
We get the frustration over Miami’s placement. There’s plenty of anger to go around. But don’t let BYU get lost in the shuffle. The Cougars’ résumé holds up against all the two-loss teams and is on par with Oregon and Ole Miss. Somehow, the committee — and nearly everyone else outside of Provo — seems to be ignoring it.
Wait, are we really defending Notre Dame here? Hey, somebody’s got to do it.
Let’s take a closer look at the Irish, who’ve become the punching bag for every fan frustrated with the committee’s rankings.
Right now, Notre Dame is effectively the golfer who wrapped up his round early and is waiting in the clubhouse, hoping no one else makes too many birdies. The Irish are safely in the field, and only a road trip to lowly Stanford is left on the docket.
But as the committee’s rankings hold steady week after week, there has been more and more time to debate the merits of Notre Dame’s résumé, and when we reach the end of championship week, it’s hard to ignore that one team aiming for a playoff bid doesn’t actually play in a conference.
So, does Notre Dame really deserve the benefit of the doubt?
In short: Heck yeah.
The Irish have five wins against bowl-eligible opponents — more than Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Texas Tech.
Both of Notre Dame’s losses were one-possession affairs against top-12 opponents. The loss to Texas A&M came down to a fluke occurrence, as the Irish flubbed a point after try.
Notre Dame’s game control — about as good an estimation as we have for the eye test — puts the Irish ahead of everyone but Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon.
In four games since Nov. 1, Notre Dame has beaten its opposition by a combined score of 181-42, lambasting Syracuse so badly in Week 13 that Fran Brown might not shower for a month.
Look at any of the underlying metrics — explosive play rates, defensive stop rates, Jeremiyah Love being awesome rates — and Notre Dame is as good as anyone in the country.
So yes, we get the more logical debates about Miami’s Week 1 win or Alabama’s superior schedule, but the bottom line is, outside of Ohio State, there’s probably no team in the country playing better, more balanced football than the Irish. That probably shouldn’t be the only consideration, but as we debate which teams ought to be docked a few points in the rankings, Notre Dame probably shouldn’t be at the front of the line either.
Yes, Miami has a good argument against the committee’s treatment of the Hurricanes. The committee, too, seems to acknowledge under-appreciating Miami early on, and is adjusting by slowly moving the Canes up one spot each week, hoping that’ll be enough to appease the masses.
But here’s a question: What if Miami’s real beef should be with the ACC, not with the committee?
For each of the past two years, there has been widespread consensus that the ACC’s best team is Miami. But, barring some truly high-level chaos in Week 14 — something the ACC is apt to provide — the Canes won’t be playing for a conference championship again.
When leagues were smaller and had two divisions, the idea of pitting one division champ against the other made intuitive sense. But with expansion and the end of division play, what we’ve gotten is wildly diverse scheduling and the potential for confounding tiebreakers to ultimately decide which two teams get to play for a conference title.
In the Big Ten and SEC, where winning the league isn’t a do-or-die proposition, that’s fine. In the ACC, where only the champion might get a playoff bid and there’s a real chance that six different teams will tie atop the conference with a 6-2 league record — well, that’s a big issue.
So, why not just tweak the rules of how a conference championship game is seeded? What if one spot goes to the team with the best conference record and the other spot goes to the next highest ranked team? Doing so would ensure both the most deserving team (best record) and best team (highest ranked) got a shot, and it would’ve ended any concerns about the ACC being passed by multiple Group of 5 leagues, because a mediocre team like Duke would’ve had no shot at winning the league.
The ACC has bent over backward to try to find unique solutions to potentially existential problems in recent years. This is a change that would be forward thinking, easy and beneficial to the league’s playoff prospects.
It just won’t come in time to save Miami in 2025.
Remember last week when Tulane was also No. 24, just ahead of Arizona State, and behind Illinois, Houston and Missouri, who all lost? It might seem reasonable, given that precondition, that Tulane would then move up, say, three spots or so, while remaining a tick ahead of Arizona State.
But no, a week later, the Green Wave still check in at No. 24, a spot the committee seems to have set aside as “Where we put a Group of 5 team,” like the junk drawer in your kitchen that holds packing tape and birthday candles and those weird scented oils your mother-in-law ordered for you off TV — a placeholder for all the stuff you don’t know what else to do with.
In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter. As long as Tulane stays ahead of its compatriots in the Group of 5 — winning the American, out-ranking James Madison — the Green Wave will make the playoff. And perhaps that’s all that matters.
But of the teams that jumped Tulane in the rankings this week are Arizona State — still with a chance to win the Big 12 — and Pitt and SMU, who have decent odds of making the ACC title game. Georgia Tech, despite a miserable loss to Pitt, also held firm ahead of the Green Wave.
A year ago, the ACC’s championship game implosion earned Clemson a bid into the playoff, but also shifted the ACC behind Boise State, the best Group of 5 champion, allowing the Broncos to land a bye. The stakes have changed for 2025-26 — the top four conference champs are no longer guaranteed an off week — but that doesn’t mean Tulane should be fine settling for the 12-seed either.
Tulane’s strength of record is ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pitt. If one of those teams claims the ACC’s playoff berth, what’s the rationale for putting them ahead of the Green Wave? And the difference between the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed might be about traveling to the SEC or the Big 12 for a playoff game.
The Group of 5 has largely been set to the side by this committee all year, so none of this comes as a surprise. But Tulane — or JMU or Navy or North Texas or San Diego State — all deserve to be judged on the merits of their résumés, not by which conference they’re affiliated with.
The bottom of the top 25 seems to be prime real estate for the ACC, but the one ACC team who might most deserve one of those coveted spots between 20 and 25 is nowhere to be found.
Wake Forest has the same record as SMU, and it beat the Mustangs head-to-head.
Wake Forest has a better overall résumé than Georgia Tech, and it only lost to the Yellow Jackets (in overtime) as a result of an officiating call the ACC later apologized for.
Wake Forest is a game behind Virginia in the standings, and the Deacons have a head-to-head win over the No. 18 Cavaliers, too.
Look, Wake Forest doesn’t ask for much. The Deacons are like the friend who’s always willing to pick you up from the airport, only better because they’ll probably bring along a box of Krispy Kreme. So if some ACC team that no one respects is going to be ranked 23rd regardless, why not Wake? Because the next time a committee member’s connection gets delayed out of CLT, it won’t be Pitt offering to pick them up and give them an air mattress to crash on. That’s strictly a Wake Forest thing.
Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (10-1, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (10-1, unranked and now losing their coach), Navy Midshipmen (8-2, unranked), Utah Utes (9-2, No. 13 after being this week’s team that somehow isn’t as good as Miami anymore), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, No. 10 and far too close to the edge of the playoff for comfort)
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