The state of Army-Navy in a constantly changing college football landscape
THE ANNUAL ARMY-NAVY football game remains the same as it has for decades. It’s patriotism and tradition all wrapped up in one. It’s the Army Corps of Cadets and Navy Brigade of Midshipmen marching on the field before taking their seats in the stands; U.S. Presidents strolling through pregame warmups; the players standing alongside one another after the final whistle and singing their respective alma maters together — the loser first, then the winner.
It’s college football at large that keeps evolving around America’s Game. In recent years, there’s been seismic realignment, with blue-bloods Oklahoma, Texas, UCLA and USC all making moves to change conferences. Players have more power now than ever, whether it’s the freedom of movement facilitated by the transfer portal or the ability to make money from name, image and likeness opportunities.
But at service academies, all of that is noise. Realignment chatter is just that — chatter. Athletes don’t have access to NIL. The transfer portal, on the other hand, is essentially a one-way-street beckoning players out of town.
Army and Navy stick to the old-fashioned wishbone, the triple-option, the seed from which modern run-pass option offenses sprung. The scheme can come across as quaint, but it’s actually a necessity. Army coach Jeff Monken says they don’t have the caliber of athletes to compete with the rest of the FBS. By doing something unique, it gives them a chance to close the talent gap.
But the gap between service academies and the rest of the FBS keeps widening thanks to NIL and the transfer portal.
It’s to the point that Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo hardly recognizes the American Athletic Conference anymore. “When we first got in the league, we challenged for a championship a couple times; once we won the West outright and two times we tied for it,” Niumatalolo says. “And I feel like the American Conference for us is a super competitive league, but the teams have changed. You just look at the demographics of what guys look like. You just look at Cincinnati and they have the running back from Alabama. Some of our schools are really enticing for SEC or Big Ten or Big 12 players.
“SMU doesn’t look like the same SMU team when we first got into the league. Memphis doesn’t look the same. Houston doesn’t look the same. I mean, these schools all look different.”
Niumatalolo and Monken aren’t looking for sympathy. They’re talking about cold, hard facts. Their players are considered federal employees, and therefore can’t have conflicting sources of income. So NIL is off the table. The portal, meanwhile, flows almost entirely in one direction: out. Admission standards are hard to meet. Also, there’s no such thing as transfer credits. Everyone who gets into Army, Navy or Air Force begins from scratch — as a first-year, or plebe (Doolies at Air Force), responsible for going through summer training.
No one else in college football has to deal with those barriers to entry. It’s enough to make you wonder whether coaches like Niumatalolo and Monken have to adjust their expectations.
“No way,” Monken says defiantly. “Not me. You can talk to somebody else about that. I got one expectation.”
And that’s to win.
“But it is more difficult,” he says.
NIUMATALOLO ADMITS THEY’RE not in the running for top recruits. Never have been. Probably never will be. He laughs when players hear rumors of NIL deals and ask, “What do you have to get to be in the ballpark with this guy?”
“We weren’t going to be in the ballpark anyway,” Niumatalolo says. “But even some of the lower-tier guys for us, we can’t compete with that.” It doesn’t matter if a prospect has zero FBS offers, they inevitably believe they can become stars, play in the NFL and earn a little NIL money in the meantime.
“I’ve had to tell several families, ‘Sorry ma’am, sorry sir, the government won’t allow us,'” Niumatalolo says.
No exceptions. Army athletic director Mike Buddie says they had a soccer player who had a small NIL deal in high school. He got free pads in exchange for his endorsement, but that ended the moment he got to campus.
Since NIL is so clear-cut, Niumatalolo and Monken say they don’t spend much time worrying about it. They have a counter argument, in fact, because there are other perks to going to a service academy besides having room and board paid for, plus a healthy stipend each month.
“Our NIL is on the back end,” Niumatalolo says. “That’s what we sell. Like, ‘Hey, just look at our graduates. Look at their starting salary or what they’re making five years after they’ve graduated.’ Or we put out the number of alumni that are working at different places — on Wall Street or different things.”
Says Navy athletic director Chet Gladchuk: “There’s no such thing as a Naval Academy graduate who’s unemployed. They’ll have a job, they’ll have that ring on their finger, it’ll open numerous doors.”
It’s the same way at Army. So say you’re Monken, you’ve made a similar sales pitch and your roster is filled with developmental prospects. Monken counts about 30 players from Georgia, and none were offered by the University of Georgia or even Georgia Southern. He has an offensive tackle who played quarterback in high school.
Maybe you find a few diamonds in the rough. But can you hold onto them? Navy lost starting linebacker Johnny Hodges to TCU, where he’s currently the leading tackler.
“When you play a team — a regional state university on our schedule, no particular one — they now are not similar to us in that they recruit high school seniors and they have to develop them,” Monken says. “If they’re deficient in an area, they can go get a guy that’s 22 years old and has played 30 college football games, and he will walk into their program and start. They can change their roster instantly. I mean, just look at the teams that have done that and are very open about, ‘Hey, we got 38 guys on our roster that weren’t here a year ago.’ Thirty-eight?! I’m thinking, ‘Holy moly!’
“And then we’ve got to keep those guys that come in as freshmen and they’re going to a military school, which is a challenge itself. There are professional standards here — the rigors of the academics, the formations in the morning, just the things that they have to do to endure four years of college football and being here. It’s a challenge. So there’s attrition.”
Monken is careful when he talks about this kind of thing. Because he loves his players — their toughness and their character. He loves being the coach at Army, too, but he acknowledges the difficulties in winning there. They existed before the portal and NIL, and are even more evident now.
Niumatalolo agrees. Navy went 41-25 from 2015 to ’19. COVID disruptions contributed to a disappointing 3-7 record in 2020. But then, in the spring of 2021, the NCAA took the lid off the transfer portal by allowing athletes to change schools once in their career with immediate eligibility. The Midshipmen are 8-15 since then.
“It has been frustrating,” Niumatalolo says, “because I can see like, ‘Holy smokes, these teams are getting way better.'”
Last month, as Navy prepared to face No. 20 UCF, it rained during practice one day. The indoor facility was unavailable and it was freezing cold outside. Everyone had an excuse to feel miserable, but an assistant coach, who was recently on staff in the Power 5, put things into perspective.
“He said, ‘Guys, I’ve been a lot of places. I don’t think there’s very many 3-7 teams that are practicing in the cold, practicing the way we practice. There’s just a resolve,'” Niumatalolo recalls. “We ended up going to Central Florida and beating them. It just made me think as a coach, ‘You know what? We can’t do any of that other stuff. Let’s just build our team the old-school way. You know, try to be a tough team that loves each other, that works hard, that’s selfless, that it’s not in it for how much am I getting out of this?’
“It’s kind of corny and it’s kind of cliche, but it’s our only alternative.”
JUST BECAUSE IT’S corny doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Part of the enduring attraction to the Army-Navy game, beyond it being the nexus of football and country, is that it radiates a sort of old-fashioned purity of competition, unchanged by time and unencumbered by whatever complications are impacting the sport at large.
All three Division I service academy football teams — Army, Navy and Air Force — have a distinct brand in that way. It’s a big reason schools like scheduling them. They’ll market it as a Military Appreciation Game, which is what Troy did last month when it hosted Army. The Trojans’ mascot wore military fatigues and helicopters flew over the field before kickoff. It was the highest-attended game in Veterans Stadium history.
When realignment rumors began swirling during the last two summers, speculation inevitably turned to the service academies. If a conference wanted to add a group of teams with broad appeal, why wouldn’t it target Army, Navy and Air Force? The Army-Navy game would be worth it; according to CBS, about 10 million people tuned into the game last year.
“What you’re talking about has been kicked around for 30 years,” Gladchuk says. “There’s so many factors that go into it — affiliation with teams that bring market value and bring traditional history and success as Division I institutions. That’s the combination everyone’s trying to manage. Would Army, Navy and Air Force be a welcome addition to a conference? Certainly they would be. No question about it. It would bring another dimension of interest.”
But Gladchuk says Navy is happy in the AAC. It only joined seven years ago.
Air Force had reported interest from the AAC a year ago but decided to stay in the Mountain West.
Only Army remains independent in football.
“So who’s gonna give to create this triumvirate?” Gladchuk asks. “I don’t know, because it’s serving Navy well to be where we are. But I certainly would be very open to and very interested and very proactive if there was interest on Army and Air Force’s part to join us for some good reason. And I think the AAC would certainly consider them joining.”
Gladchuk says the three athletic directors have spoken about it, “But everyone has their own agenda and right now the stars aren’t lined up.”
Buddie says of watching USC and UCLA join the Big Ten this past summer, “You’re crazy not to pay attention and try to think how that’s going to impact the landscape.”
“Certainly we were contacted as the tectonic plates started to shift,” he says. “We’ve had conversations. Some were initiated by me to understand what options existed, and some were certainly initiated by others just to see. … But, as of now, we just haven’t felt compelled to make that leap.”
Buddie admits they’re “leaving a few dollars on the table” by not joining a conference in football. As long as they can create a competitive schedule, they like the flexibility independence offers.
With that said, scheduling got tricky during COVID. If a result of conference expansion is that it leaves no wiggle room in teams’ schedules — and therefore no place for Army to slide in — then Buddie could see reconsidering their stance.
“If the dust falls and there’s an academically based league that believes in scholarship and believes in service and education and we all ended up in it,” Buddie says, “I don’t think that would be a bad thing.”
THE ONLY THING that feels certain is Army-Navy. If there’s something both schools are committed to, it’s America’s Game.
There’s nothing else like it. Where else could a coach be tempted to correct a president of the United States? It happened to Niumatalolo once when George W. Bush wandered through a pre-game drill.
“You don’t know how to say, ‘You’re going to get run over. You better move back over here,'” Niumatalolo says. “He has all his security guards with him, so you just tell your kids, ‘Watch out. Don’t run over the president. Don’t run an out-route into him, go wider.’ It’s bizarre.”
And it’s an honor, Niumatalolo says. For a kid from La’ie, Hawai’i, to grow up and meet multiple presidents is special.
Monken struggles to describe the intensity of the game.
“It’s never just a play. It’s always the most important play of the game,” he says. “It’s a great game to be a part of because of who we represent — the men and women that serve and are all over the world watching. And if they can’t watch, they’re listening. And if they can’t watch or listen, they’re parked in a foxhole somewhere with their eyes on some bad guys knowing it’s going on.”
Gladchuk says there’s a reason it’s on so many bucket lists.
“There are people who like to go to a national championship game or they may want to go to the Super Bowl because of their affiliation with the teams or they want to get to the U.S. Open because they’re a Freddie Couples fan,” he says. “But everyone’s an American, and everyone takes great pride in something that exudes what the country stands for. And it’s all on display in a four-hour time frame on the second week in December.”
Sports
From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams
Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.
As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.
The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66
Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%
How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.
What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle
Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%
How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.
Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%
How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.
What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%
How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.
What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%
How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.
What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%
How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.
What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.
Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo
TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70
Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.
What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71
Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%
How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.
What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73
Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.
What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield
TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX
Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%
What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.
But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.
What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield
Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.
Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.
What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77
Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.
Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.
What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%
What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.
What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%
What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.
What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%
What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.
What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.
The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers
TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION
Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.
Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.
What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81
Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.
What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.
What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.
Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.
What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.
What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle
Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.
What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.
Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.
They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.
What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez
TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85
Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.
What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell
Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.
Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.
What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield
Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.
What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft
Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.
What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle
Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.
What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell
Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.
What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft
Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.
Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.
What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers
TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM
Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.
What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez
CHICAGO — The Boston Red Sox are taking a deliberate approach with Alex Bregman in his return from a quad strain.
So far, everything is going smoothly.
Bregman played in consecutive games on Friday and Saturday for the first time since he got hurt in May. He was out of the lineup for Sunday’s series finale against the Chicago Cubs, but he connected for a big pinch-hit homer in Boston’s 6-1 victory.
“We got to be smart,” Bregman said. “I’m back probably a month and a half, maybe a little less, early than we expected. The leg’s feeling great. We’re checking in every day pre- and postgame and just monitoring it.”
Bregman is a key player for Boston as it fights for a playoff spot in the last part of the season. The All-Star third baseman, who signed a $120 million, three-year deal with the Red Sox in February, is batting .294 with 12 homers and 38 RBIs in 56 games.
He strained his right quad while running the bases on May 23 against Baltimore. Forgoing a rehab stint in the minors, he returned on July 11 against Tampa Bay.
The homer against the Cubs was his first one since the injury.
“The training staff, the strength and conditioning staff here was amazing in helping me get back quickly and get back fully healthy,” Bregman said. “I’m going to trust their plan and stick to that.”
Boston managed just one run while losing the first two games of its weekend series at Chicago. It had a 2-1 lead in the finale when Bregman broke it open with a three-run shot off Drew Pomeranz.
It was Bregman’s second career pinch-hit homer, also accomplishing the feat on Sept. 8, 2021, against Seattle.
“The kid did what he usually does,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said.
The 31-year-old Bregman spent most of the game in the batting cage with assistant hitting coach Dillon Lawson, working on his positioning at the plate.
“After being away for like two months, kind of just standing more vertically and I wasn’t starting in the same position,” said Bregman, a two-time World Series champion with Houston. “So tried to get back in that starting position and then swing from behind the ball. Big credit to our hitting staff for noticing that and helping me out.”
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