Bank of England imposes ninth consecutive interest rate rise to tackle inflation
The Bank of England has revealed a 0.5 percentage point interest rate increase – its ninth consecutive rise as it maintains its battle against inflation.
The decision, by its monetary policy committee (MPC), took the bank rate to 3.5% – a fresh high not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
The move, however, represented a slowdown on the 0.75 percentage point rise that was imposed last month after inflation had leapt to a 41-year high of 11.1% on the back of rising energy and food bills.
Thursday’s interest rate hike level was widely expected by economists and financial markets given the more recent easing in the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation, to 10.7%, reported on Wednesday.
It matched the rate move announced by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday evening while it was also followed by the European Central Bank, taking the eurozone central bank’s main deposit rate to 2% from 1.5%.
The voting on the nine-member MPC made for interesting reading as it was split three ways – with financial analysts saying that mixed messages were behind a fall in the value of the pound, by a cent against the dollar, to $1.23 (£1) after the vote.
Two backed no change while one, the economist Catherine Mann, sought a repeat of November’s hike. The rest including governor Andrew Bailey all supported the 0.5 percentage point rise.
While the latest inflation rate raised hopes that the core cost of living measure had peaked, the bank is still raising its interest rate because inflationary pressures remain in the economy despite its assertion the UK is already in recession.
Policymakers would have been concerned, for example, by separate data this week showing basic wages growing at their fastest pace since 2001, if the pandemic period is excluded.
“The labour market remains tight and there has been evidence of inflationary pressures in domestic prices and wages that could indicate greater persistence and thus justifies a further forceful monetary policy response,” the Bank said.
Rising Bank rates however, while good for savers on paper, will only add to borrowing costs in an economy already squeezed by rising prices.
Immediate pain for some homeowners
Those on tracker or standard variable rate (SVR) mortgage deals will feel the most immediate pain.
Financial information firm Moneyfacts said a Bank rate rise of 0.5 percentage points on the current average SVR of 6.40% would add approximately £1,509 onto total repayments over two years.
The rate rise is also likely to be reflected in fixed rate deals ahead – still recovering from the temporary mini-budget market mayhem of September.
The Bank warned in its Financial Stability Report earlier this week that the average mortgage repayment was to increase by £250 a month, placing more households at risk of default next year.
Financial markets see Bank rate hitting 4.6% over the next six months.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Hunt: Economy ‘likely to get worse’
Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, said: “This latest base rate rise will be disappointing news to borrowers who are already facing a cost of living crisis and recent turmoil surrounding mortgage interest rates.
“Consumers may breathe a sigh of relief to see fixed mortgage rates have started to drop in recent weeks and hope these rates will fall further.
“However, the cost to secure a new fixed deal is much higher than they may realise, as both the average two- and five-year fixed rates have increased by over 3% during the past year.
“The erratic behaviour in mortgage pricing makes it essential for borrowers to seek advice to scrutinise all the options available to them,” she wrote.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said of the Bank’s action: “High inflation, exacerbated by Putin’s war in Ukraine, continues to plague countries across the world, eating into people’s pay cheques and driving up food and energy prices.
“I know this is tough for people right now, but it is vital that we stick to our plan, working in lockstep with the Bank of England as they take action to return inflation to target.
“The sooner we grip inflation the better. Any action which risks permanently embedding high prices into our economy will only prolong the pain for everyone, stunting any prospect of economic recovery.”
First things first: don’t panic.
What you need to know is this. The budget has not gone down well in financial markets. Indeed, it’s gone down about as badly as any budget in recent years, save for Liz Truss’s mini-budget.
The pound is weaker. Government bond yields (essentially, the interest rate the exchequer pays on its debt) have gone up.
That’s precisely the opposite market reaction to the one chancellors like to see after they commend their fiscal statements to the house.
In hindsight, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised.
After all, the new government just committed itself to considerably more borrowing than its predecessors – about £140bn more borrowing in the coming years. And that money has to be borrowed from someone – namely, financial markets.
But those financial markets are now reassessing how keen they are to lend to the UK.
The upshot is that the pound has fallen quite sharply (the biggest two-day fall in trade-weighted sterling in 18 months) and gilt yields – the interest rate paid by the government – have risen quite sharply.
This was all beginning to crystallise shortly after the budget speech, with yields beginning to rise and the pound beginning to weaken, the moment investors and economists got their hands on the budget documentation.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Chancellor challenged over gilt yield spike
But the falls in the pound and the rises in the bond yields accelerated today.
This is not, to be absolutely clear, the kind of response any chancellor wants to see after a budget – let alone their first budget in office.
Indeed, I can’t remember another budget which saw as hostile a market response as this one in many years – save for one.
That exception is, of course, the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng mini-budget of 2022. And here is where you’ll find the silver lining for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.
The rises in gilt yields and falls in sterling in recent hours and days are still far shy of what took place in the run up and aftermath of the mini-budget. This does not yet feel like a crisis moment for UK markets.
But nor is it anything like good news for the government. In fact, it’s pretty awful. Because higher borrowing rates for UK debt mean it (well, us) will end up paying considerably more to service our debt in the coming years.
Rachel Reeves leaving 11 Downing Street before the budget. Pic: PA
And that debt is about to balloon dramatically because of the plans laid down by the chancellor this week.
And this is where things get particularly sticky for Ms Reeves.
In that budget documentation, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the chancellor could afford to see those gilt yields rise by about 1.3 percentage points, but then when they exceeded this level, the so-called “headroom” she had against her fiscal rules would evaporate.
Read more:
Chancellor defends £40bn tax rises
Hefty tax and spending plans a huge gamble – analysis
In other words, she’d break those rules – which, recall, are considerably less strict than the ones she inherited from Jeremy Hunt.
Which raises the question: where are those gilt yields right now? How close are they to the danger zone where the chancellor ends up breaking her rules?
Short answer: worryingly close. Because, right now, the yield on five-year government debt (which is the maturity the OBR focuses on most) is more than halfway towards that danger zone – only 56 basis points away from hitting the point where debt interest costs eat up any leeway the chancellor has to avoid breaking her rules.
Now, we are not in crisis territory yet. Nor can every move in currencies and bonds be attributed to this budget.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Markets are volatile right now. There’s lots going on: a US election next week and a Bank of England decision on interest rates next week.
The chancellor could get lucky. Gilt yields could settle in the coming days. But, right now, the UK, with its high level of public and private debt, with its new government which has just pledged to borrow many billions more in the coming years, is being closely scrutinised by the “bond vigilantes”.
A Halloween nightmare for any chancellor.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports7 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Environment1 year agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway