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Whisper it quietly, but there were a few glimmers of hope hidden away in the Bank of England’s latest interest rate decision.

Don’t get me wrong: there was plenty in there which will continue to concern households – especially those with mortgages.

The Bank‘s Monetary Policy Committee voted to increase its official interest rate by another half a percentage point, bringing it up to 3.5%. That’s the ninth consecutive increase – one every meeting since this time last year – and it won’t be the last.

The committee said that “should the economy evolve broadly in line with the November Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank Rate might be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target”.

Moreover, while there were two members of the nine-person committee who voted for no increase, another member, Catherine Mann, voted for an even bigger increase, up by 0.75 percentage points.

It’s worth taking a step back to ponder just how big a sea change this has been for monetary policy.

Yes, interest rates have been higher than this – as recently as 2008. But not since 1989 have interest rates increased this much in a single year. And given those households with mortgages today are considerably more indebted than back then, the net effect of these changes could be even tougher.

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That being said, as the Bank’s own analysis showed earlier this week, there are fewer and fewer households with those mortgages. This will be very tough for some, but not for everyone.

And the coming year is clouded in uncertainty. Given the main thing pushing up inflation has been energy prices and given no-one knows what Vladimir Putin will do next, trying to predict the future remains especially difficult.

But here’s where the glimmer – or rather glimmers – of hope come in.

• The first is that inflation seems to have peaked (bearing in mind those provisos). The Bank of England isn’t the only central bank slowing down its pace of rate increases; the Federal Reserve did precisely the same thing yesterday, raising US rates by half a percentage point.

• Second, the Bank reckons that the extension to the Energy Price Guarantee should help bear down on inflation next year, meaning it may not need to raise interest rates quite as much as it might have.

• Third, the economy is actually doing a little better (or rather, less badly) than it had previously expected. Yes, we are still probably in recession. But in the third quarter, gross domestic product shrank by 0.2% (the Bank had expected -0.5%). In the fourth quarter it previously expected a fall of 0.3%, but now it thinks -0.1% looks more likely.

It’s hard to cast this as good news, but perhaps altogether they may constitute a glimmer somewhere off at the end of the tunnel.

Inflation peaking… growth surprising on the upside… They may not add up to full-blown Christmas cheer but after the year we’ve just had, it’s better than nothing.

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Protesters throw powder on Tower Bridge during London Marathon

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Protesters throw powder on Tower Bridge during London Marathon

Two pro-Palestinian demonstrators have thrown red powder on Tower Bridge – just moments before leading runners in the London Marathon went past.

The protesters were arrested on suspicion of causing a public nuisance and remain in custody, said the Metropolitan Police.

A video shared by Youth Demand, which is calling for a trade embargo on Israel, shows two people jumping over a barrier that separates spectators from the race course.

The pair, wearing t-shirts that say “Youth Demand: Stop Arming Israel”, are then seen standing in the middle of the road on the bridge.

Pic: LNP
Image:
Pic: LNP

They throw red powder in the air as an official marathon car goes past displaying the race time.

A motorbike with a cameraman on board continues along the route, while a second motorbike stops and one of the riders gets off and pushes the pair out of the way, just before the men’s elite runners pass.

Several police officers then jump over the barrier and detain the pair, the footage shows.

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There appeared to be no impact on the marathon.

More than 56,000 participants were expected to take part in the 26.2-mile race through the capital.

Sabastian Sawe of Kenya won the men’s elite race in a time of two hours, two minutes and 27 seconds, while Ethiopia’s Tigst Assefa shattered the women’s-only world record in two hours, 15 minutes and 50 seconds.

Assefa beat the previous best of two hours, 16 minutes and 16 seconds set last year in London by Kenyan Peres Jepchirchir.

Read more:
Sky’s Beth Rigby running marathon in honour of ‘dearest friend’
Badenoch does not rule out local coalitions with Reform

Pic: LNP
Image:
Pic: LNP

The Metropolitan Police said in a statement: “At around 10.38am, two protesters from Youth Demand jumped over barriers at Tower Bridge and threw red paint on to the road.

“Marathon event staff intervened to remove the protesters from the path of the men’s elite race which was able to pass unobstructed.”

The force added that they were “quickly supported by police officers who arrested the protesters on suspicion of causing a public nuisance”.

The Met said the paint “appeared to be chalk-based” and was not expected to “present a hazard to runners yet to pass this point”.

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Kemi Badenoch does not rule out local coalitions with Reform after next week’s council elections

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Kemi Badenoch does not rule out local coalitions with Reform after next week's council elections

Kemi Badenoch has not ruled out forming coalitions at a local level with Reform after the council elections next week.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the Conservative leader did however categorically rule out a pact with Nigel Farage’s party on a national level.

“I am not going into any coalition with Nigel Farage… read my lips,” she said.

However, she did not deny that deals could be struck with Reform at a local level, arguing that some councils might be under no overall control and in that case, “you have to do what is right for your local area”.

“You look at the moment, we are in coalition with Liberal Democrats, with independents,” she said. “We’ve been in coalition with Labour before at local government level.

“They [councillors] have to look at who the people are that they’re going into coalition with and see how they can deliver for local people.”

She added: “What I don’t want to hear is talks of stitch-ups or people planning things before the results are out. They have to do what is right for their communities.”

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A total of 23 councils are up for grabs when voters go to the polls on Thursday 1 May – mostly in places that were once deemed Tory shires, until last year’s general election.

It includes 14 county councils, all but two of which have been Conservative-controlled, as well as eight unitary authorities, all but one of which are Tory.

Ms Badenoch has set expectations low for the Tories, suggesting they could lose all the councils they are contesting.

The last time this set of councils were up for election was in 2021, when the Conservative Party was led by Boris Johnson who was riding high from the COVID vaccine bounce.

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Counter-terrorism police investigating after two women injured in Leeds

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Counter-terrorism police investigating after two women injured in Leeds

Counter-terrorism police are investigating after an incident involving a crossbow and a firearm left two women injured in Leeds.

Police were called to Otley Road at 2.47pm on Saturday to reports of a “serious incident involving a man seen with weapons”, West Yorkshire Police said.

Officers arrived at the scene to find two women injured – and a 38-year-old man with a self-inflicted injury. All three were taken to hospital, with the man held under arrest, but their injuries are not believed to be life-threatening.

“Two weapons have been recovered from the scene, which were a crossbow and a firearm,” Counter Terrorism Policing North East said in a statement.

The incident happened on the ‘Otley Run’ pub crawl, with one venue saying it was closed for the evening due to “unforeseen circumstances”.

Officers guard one of the crime scenes in Leeds
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Officers guard one of the crime scenes

Officers inside the cordon in Leeds
Image:
Officers inside the cordon in Leeds

Counter Terrorism Policing’s statement added: “Due to the circumstances surrounding the incident, Counter Terrorism Policing North East have taken responsibility for leading the investigation with the support of West Yorkshire Police.

“Extensive enquiries continue to establish the full circumstances and explore any potential motivation.”

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper described it as a “serious violent incident” and said she was being kept updated by police.

“Thank you to the police and emergency services for their swift response,” she said. “My thoughts are with the victims and all those affected by this attack.”

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