California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages in next five years
Wind turbines and power transmission lines at a wind farm near Highway 12 in Rio Vista, California, on Tuesday, March 30, 2021.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
America’s electrical grid is being pushed to the breaking point, and California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls, says the not-for-profit organization charged with managing and evaluating the grid.
“High risk” regions, marked in red on the map, may see shortfalls at “normal peak conditions,” according to the 54th annual assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released Thursday.
The reasons for the shortfalls vary.
In the Midwestern states and Ontario, more power generation is being retired than is being added back online, NERC’s Mark Olson told reporters Thursday. Projected energy shortfalls have been projected in that region since 2018, Olson said.
In California, the risk is due to a “variable resource mix” and “demand variability,” Olson said. That means there’s a lot of renewable energy in the state, and its generation is not coordinated with the times people need the most energy. NERC predicts that demand could fall below supply for 10 hours during peak summer months in 2024.
Much of the rest of the Midwest and the rest of the Western part of the United States are at “elevated risk” (yellow on the map), which means shortfalls may occur in extreme conditions, like during severe weather or hot spells where everyone is running air conditioners. In New England, the elevated risk comes in the winter when people use generators that depend on natural gas.
“The natural gas capacity can be insufficient for generators, leading to use of backup fuels, stored liquid fuels, and there are risks to being able to maintain sufficient fuel storage during long duration events,” Olson said.
The Southwest could also suffer when demand is high and wind energy generation is low in the region.
‘Extraordinary times’
“We are living in extraordinary times from an electric industry perspective,” John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC, said on Thursday.
Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions. Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the wind is still).
Renewables also don’t necessarily map to where demand is, unlike fossil fuels, which can be transported and burned near where they’re consumed. That means more transmission lines are needed, and building them can take from seven to 15 years, Moura says.
Another area of note, according to NERC, is the increased power demand of cryptocurrency mining and the need to plan for energy usage there.
Then there’s the weather. It’s tricky to tie particular extreme weather events to climate change, but it’s generally true that a warmer world is a wetter one, according to NASA climate scientists.
“Year after year, we’ve seen extreme weather leading to increased reliability impacts. And so when we look at events over the last several years, it’s clear that the bulk power system is impacted by extreme weather more than it ever has,” Moura told reporters on the media call.
These factors are placing increased strain on the grid, and NERC representatives urge grid operators to be conservative in their planning.
“Managing the pace of our generation retirement and our resource mix changes to ensure we have enough energy and essential services are an absolute necessity,” Moura told reporters on the call. “We need to work with the entire ecosystem to make sure we’re managing that base, and to be very clear that we’re not retiring generation prematurely — that is done in an orderly fashion and especially in areas that are right on the edge.”
For its annual long-term electricity security assessment, NERC looks at the coming decade, but energy and capacity risk assessment goes out for the coming five years, from 2023 to 2027. There are too many moving parts and uncertainties for a risk assessment past the next five years to be worthwhile, according to NERC.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission certified NERC to measure and enforce safety standards for the energy grid in the United States in 2006. NERC is subject to the oversight of FERC, which is the federal governmental agency in charge of regulating interstate electricity transmission.
Rivian will power its DC fast-charging network with renewable energy company RWE’s Champion Wind farm in Texas.
The two companies just signed a 15-year power purchase agreement (PPA) for electricity from RWE’s repowered Champion Wind in Nolan and Mitchell counties, west of Abilene.
The 127-megawatt (MW) Champion Wind is getting new turbine nacelles and blades, which will extend the wind farm’s lifespan. Originally commissioned in 2008, the wind farm is expected to be fully upgraded by mid-2025. When the wind farm is back online, it’ll be capable of generating enough electricity to power nearly 1 billion miles of renewable driving every year for Rivian, or the equivalent of powering 36,000 homes annually in Texas.
This wind power is set to support Rivian’s DC fast-charging Adventure Network with renewable energy. Rivian has set a specific goal to enable 7 billion miles of renewable driving.
Paul Frey, Rivian’s VP of propulsion, charging & adventure products, said, “Champion Wind is a powerful enabler for Rivian drivers to become active participants in building a cleaner grid every time they charge their vehicle. This project shows the potential to meaningfully decarbonize the grid and support a more circular economy through reuse and recovery of existing infrastructure, all while maintaining highly competitive economics.”
Siemens Gamesa is supplying 41 turbines with new nacelles and blades on existing towers. The nacelles and blades are being manufactured in the US. In addition, as part of the repowering project, six new Siemens Gamesa turbines rated at 3.1 MW each will also be added to the wind farm.
The decommissioned wind turbine blades from Champion will be repurposed. RWE is working with REGEN Fiber, an Iowa-based company that recycles wind turbine blades to make reinforcement fibers for the construction industry. Those fibers are then used in concrete to add strength and durability, extending the lifespan of infrastructure.
RWE is the third-largest renewable energy company in the US.
Read more: This renewables giant is going to use wooden wind turbine towers
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Rivian is bringing back its “All-Electric upgrade offer” from now until November 30th, but with some changes to the program.
Earlier this year, Rivian offered $1k-$5k off a new Rivian if you trade in an old gas car, from April to June. The offer was available for specific vehicles, and with a sliding discount scale based on which Rivian vehicle you order.
Now the program has come back, but with quite a few changes from the previous version.
As of today, October 31, if you buy a new Rivian R1T or R1S new inventory vehicle from the R1 Shop, you can get a $3,000 discount if you also prove that you own or lease a qualifying gas-powered vehicle.
This is simultaneously simpler, more lenient, and more restrictive than the previous offer, in various ways.
First, the discount is a flat $3k (or $4,100 CAD), rather than having a scale based on what model you order, which is more streamlined.
Second, the discount applies to every gas or hybrid vehicle owner – you don’t have to trade in your vehicle, and you’re not limited to a specific list of vehicles. Just prove that you own or lease a gas car (copy of registration, proof of insurance, etc), and you get the discount.
However, third, it’s more restrictive as to what vehicles you can purchase. The current offer applies only to Rivian new inventory vehicles in the R1 Shop, and excludes demo vehicles, pre-owned vehicles, or custom build vehicles. It also does not apply to Rivian’s base Dual Standard models, but everything else is fair game.
In order to qualify, you need to place your order between today and November 30, and you must take delivery of the vehicle before December 31. Check out all the specifics of the offer on Rivian’s site here.
Electrek’s Take
Rivian is clearly trying to round out its yearly numbers with this offer, as the market for pricy cars is somewhat soft with increased interest rates. It just slightly lowered its annual delivery guidance, now planning to see roughly similar deliveries this year than last.
But its R1 vehicles just got a huge refresh to help the company with costs and to offer new features. The R1S is still one of the most popular high-priced vehicles in the US, and the company’s products earn universal acclaim from owners.
The interesting thing is that Rivian had a similar offer earlier this year, before the refresh, to help clear out inventory of older vehicles. It didn’t see it fit to offer the discount last quarter, perhaps buoyed by the updated model, but after a rough Q3 of deliveries it now brought the offer back.
Rivian is still guiding to reach a slight gross profit in Q4, though we’re sure we’ll hear more about that in its upcoming quarterly earnings next week.
If our coverage of Rivian has helped inform you about the brand, feel free to use our Rivian referral code to get 6 months of free charging or 750 Rivian Rewards points with your purchase.
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![Hyundai Casper EV Cross spotted for the first time with new design upgrades [Video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/10/Hyundai-Casper-EV-battery-2.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Hyundai’s new low-cost EV is getting a bold design upgrade. The Hyundai Casper EV Cross was spotted for the first time in public, revealing new design elements.
Although we knew a rugged “Cross” variant was headed to Europe, this was the first time the domestic model was spotted with an upgraded design.
Hyundai unveiled the Inster EV Cross earlier this month, giving the electric city car an off-road new look.
The Inster EV is Hyundai’s overseas version of its domestic Casper Electric model. In Korea, Hyundai’s Casper EV starts at around $20,000 (27.4 million won). Hyundai said its new EV can be bought for under $8,000 (10 million won) with subsidies.
In Europe, it starts at under $27,000 (25,000 euros). The Cross variant is built for “those looking for an EV with a more adventurous look,” Hyundai said.
Although it offers the same versatility as the standard model, the Inster EV Cross gains rugged design elements, including new front and rear bumpers, black claddings, skid plates, a roof rack, and more.
Here’s our first look at the Hyundai Casper EV Cross
After a rugged new variant with the Casper EV logo was spotted in Korea for the first time, a Cross model is expected to debut shortly.
The new video from HealerTV reveals added design elements, including the roof rack and more aggressive black trim.
The reporter notes that the Hyundai Casper EV Cross has a “much more mechanical and futuristic feel than the existing model.”
It almost appears “robot-like” with an added off-road feel. The Inster EV Cross gets up to 223 mi (360 km) WLTP driving range. In Korea, the Casper Electric is rated with up to 195 miles (315 km) driving range.
Although Hyundai Casper (Inster) EV is not expected to launch in the US, the low-cost model was spotted driving in California for the first time this month.
In the meantime, off-road fans can get in line for Hyundai’s upgraded 2025 IONIQ 5, which will be available with a rugged XRT trim. The 2025 IONIQ 5 XRT model was also recently caught testing ahead of deliveries.
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