California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages in next five years
Wind turbines and power transmission lines at a wind farm near Highway 12 in Rio Vista, California, on Tuesday, March 30, 2021.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
America’s electrical grid is being pushed to the breaking point, and California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls, says the not-for-profit organization charged with managing and evaluating the grid.
“High risk” regions, marked in red on the map, may see shortfalls at “normal peak conditions,” according to the 54th annual assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released Thursday.
The reasons for the shortfalls vary.
In the Midwestern states and Ontario, more power generation is being retired than is being added back online, NERC’s Mark Olson told reporters Thursday. Projected energy shortfalls have been projected in that region since 2018, Olson said.
In California, the risk is due to a “variable resource mix” and “demand variability,” Olson said. That means there’s a lot of renewable energy in the state, and its generation is not coordinated with the times people need the most energy. NERC predicts that demand could fall below supply for 10 hours during peak summer months in 2024.
Much of the rest of the Midwest and the rest of the Western part of the United States are at “elevated risk” (yellow on the map), which means shortfalls may occur in extreme conditions, like during severe weather or hot spells where everyone is running air conditioners. In New England, the elevated risk comes in the winter when people use generators that depend on natural gas.
“The natural gas capacity can be insufficient for generators, leading to use of backup fuels, stored liquid fuels, and there are risks to being able to maintain sufficient fuel storage during long duration events,” Olson said.
The Southwest could also suffer when demand is high and wind energy generation is low in the region.
‘Extraordinary times’
“We are living in extraordinary times from an electric industry perspective,” John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC, said on Thursday.
Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions. Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the wind is still).
Renewables also don’t necessarily map to where demand is, unlike fossil fuels, which can be transported and burned near where they’re consumed. That means more transmission lines are needed, and building them can take from seven to 15 years, Moura says.
Another area of note, according to NERC, is the increased power demand of cryptocurrency mining and the need to plan for energy usage there.
Then there’s the weather. It’s tricky to tie particular extreme weather events to climate change, but it’s generally true that a warmer world is a wetter one, according to NASA climate scientists.
“Year after year, we’ve seen extreme weather leading to increased reliability impacts. And so when we look at events over the last several years, it’s clear that the bulk power system is impacted by extreme weather more than it ever has,” Moura told reporters on the media call.
These factors are placing increased strain on the grid, and NERC representatives urge grid operators to be conservative in their planning.
“Managing the pace of our generation retirement and our resource mix changes to ensure we have enough energy and essential services are an absolute necessity,” Moura told reporters on the call. “We need to work with the entire ecosystem to make sure we’re managing that base, and to be very clear that we’re not retiring generation prematurely — that is done in an orderly fashion and especially in areas that are right on the edge.”
For its annual long-term electricity security assessment, NERC looks at the coming decade, but energy and capacity risk assessment goes out for the coming five years, from 2023 to 2027. There are too many moving parts and uncertainties for a risk assessment past the next five years to be worthwhile, according to NERC.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission certified NERC to measure and enforce safety standards for the energy grid in the United States in 2006. NERC is subject to the oversight of FERC, which is the federal governmental agency in charge of regulating interstate electricity transmission.
Mercedes-Benz is sending nearly 5,000 electric vans to Amazon’s European delivery partners in its biggest EV handoff to date. The fleet will hit the streets in five countries in the coming months.
Three-quarters of the fleet are Mercedes’ larger eSprinter vans, while the rest are the more compact eVito panel vans. More than 2,500 are going to Germany, and Amazon says this new EV fleet will help deliver more than 200 million parcels a year across Europe.
This is the biggest EV order Mercedes-Benz Vans has ever received. It builds on a partnership that started in 2020, when Amazon first added more than 1,800 electric vans from Mercedes to its delivery network.
“We’re further intensifying our long-standing relationship with Amazon and working together toward an all-electric future of transport,” said Sagree Sardien, head of sales & marketing at Mercedes-Benz Vans. “Our eVito and eSprinter are perfectly tailored to meet the demands of our commercial customers regarding efficiency and range.”
In 2020, Mercedes-Benz joined Amazon’s Climate Pledge, a commitment Amazon co-founded with Global Optimism to reach net zero by 2040.
Both the eSprinter and eVito are designed with delivery drivers in mind. With batteries tucked into the underbody, the vans offer unrestricted cargo space. Both come standard with the MBUX multimedia system, which supports the integration of automatic charging stops and Mercedes’ public charging network via navigation.
Safety and comfort got upgrades, too. New driver assistance features come standard, and the Amazon vans are customized with shelves and a sliding door between the cabin and cargo area for easy parcel access.
The eVito vans, which were built at Mercedes’ plant in Vitoria, Spain, are ideal for last-mile urban deliveries. They come in 60 kWh or 90 kWh battery options, with peak motor outputs of either 85 kW or 150 kW, and can travel up to 480 km (298 miles) on a full charge.
Meanwhile, the eSprinter is the all-rounder for range and loading volume. Built in Düsseldorf, it comes in two lengths and three battery sizes, with a range of up to 484 km (300 miles). It boasts up to 14 cubic meters of cargo space and can handle a gross weight of up to 4.25 tonnes.
Read more: Amazon places its largest-ever order for electric semi trucks
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It already outsold Tesla in the UK and Europe, but this could be just the start. BYD said it’s launching new vehicles, including EVs, faster than any carmaker in Europe has done so far.
BYD goes all in on Europe with new EVs, PHEVs
BYD took the spotlight earlier this month after launching its most affordable EV in Europe so far. The Dolphin Surf, a rebadged version of the Seagull EV sold in China, starts at just £18,650 (just over $25,000) in the UK.
At a UK launch event, Alfredo Altavilla, BYD’s special advisor for Europe, said (via Autocar) the “Dolphin Surf was the missing piece in the A/B-segment.”
It will compete with entry-level EVs, such as the Dacia Spring, the UK’s cheapest EV, which starts at £14,995 ($20,000).
Yet, the low-cost Dolphin Surf is only one piece of BYD’s master plan. “We have been launching six cars in less than a year,” Altavilla explained, adding, “We are covering all of the most important segments of the European car market.”
Altavilla even boasted that, “I have zero problem in saying I don’t think there has ever been such a product offensive done in Europe as the one BYD is doing.”
Although BYD is best known for its low-cost EVs, like the Seagull, which starts under $10,000 in China, the auto giant is quickly expanding into new segments.
BYD sells luxury vehicles under the Denza Yangwang brands. Denza is BYD’s answer to Porsche and other German luxury brands. Meanwhile, Yangwang is an ultra-luxury brand that will serve as BYD’s tech beacon.
According to Altavilla, this could be just the start. “We’re going to get together again after the summer break for another important reveal, and through the end of the year, there will be others,” BYD’s special advisor for Europe said.
BYD is set to begin production at its new plant in Hungary by the end of the year, enabling the company to customize vehicles for buyers in the region.
“As we go forward into 2026, more and more of the BYD line-up will be specific to this region,” Altavilla explained.
In separate news, BYD announced on Monday that its “Xi’an” car carrier is loaded and ready to ship off to the UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and other countries, carrying about 7,000 EVs and PHEVs.
Electrek’s Take
In what was called a “watershed moment,” BYD registered more vehicles in Europe than Tesla for the first time in April.
It also had more vehicle registrations in the UK than Tesla last month, with the Seal U taking the top spot for the most popular plug-in hybrid.
With the Dolphin Surf arriving, local production set to come online later this year, and several new models on the way, BYD is laying the groundwork to capture its share of the European auto market.
According to S&P Global Mobility forecasts, BYD is expected to more than double its sales in Europe this year, with around 186,000 vehicles sold. By 2029, BYD’s sales could double again to around 400,000. Between its plants in Hungary and Turkey, China’s EV leader is expected to have a combined capacity of 500,000 units.
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