California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages in next five years
Wind turbines and power transmission lines at a wind farm near Highway 12 in Rio Vista, California, on Tuesday, March 30, 2021.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
America’s electrical grid is being pushed to the breaking point, and California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls, says the not-for-profit organization charged with managing and evaluating the grid.
“High risk” regions, marked in red on the map, may see shortfalls at “normal peak conditions,” according to the 54th annual assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released Thursday.
The reasons for the shortfalls vary.
In the Midwestern states and Ontario, more power generation is being retired than is being added back online, NERC’s Mark Olson told reporters Thursday. Projected energy shortfalls have been projected in that region since 2018, Olson said.
In California, the risk is due to a “variable resource mix” and “demand variability,” Olson said. That means there’s a lot of renewable energy in the state, and its generation is not coordinated with the times people need the most energy. NERC predicts that demand could fall below supply for 10 hours during peak summer months in 2024.
Much of the rest of the Midwest and the rest of the Western part of the United States are at “elevated risk” (yellow on the map), which means shortfalls may occur in extreme conditions, like during severe weather or hot spells where everyone is running air conditioners. In New England, the elevated risk comes in the winter when people use generators that depend on natural gas.
“The natural gas capacity can be insufficient for generators, leading to use of backup fuels, stored liquid fuels, and there are risks to being able to maintain sufficient fuel storage during long duration events,” Olson said.
The Southwest could also suffer when demand is high and wind energy generation is low in the region.
‘Extraordinary times’
“We are living in extraordinary times from an electric industry perspective,” John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC, said on Thursday.
Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions. Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the wind is still).
Renewables also don’t necessarily map to where demand is, unlike fossil fuels, which can be transported and burned near where they’re consumed. That means more transmission lines are needed, and building them can take from seven to 15 years, Moura says.
Another area of note, according to NERC, is the increased power demand of cryptocurrency mining and the need to plan for energy usage there.
Then there’s the weather. It’s tricky to tie particular extreme weather events to climate change, but it’s generally true that a warmer world is a wetter one, according to NASA climate scientists.
“Year after year, we’ve seen extreme weather leading to increased reliability impacts. And so when we look at events over the last several years, it’s clear that the bulk power system is impacted by extreme weather more than it ever has,” Moura told reporters on the media call.
These factors are placing increased strain on the grid, and NERC representatives urge grid operators to be conservative in their planning.
“Managing the pace of our generation retirement and our resource mix changes to ensure we have enough energy and essential services are an absolute necessity,” Moura told reporters on the call. “We need to work with the entire ecosystem to make sure we’re managing that base, and to be very clear that we’re not retiring generation prematurely — that is done in an orderly fashion and especially in areas that are right on the edge.”
For its annual long-term electricity security assessment, NERC looks at the coming decade, but energy and capacity risk assessment goes out for the coming five years, from 2023 to 2027. There are too many moving parts and uncertainties for a risk assessment past the next five years to be worthwhile, according to NERC.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission certified NERC to measure and enforce safety standards for the energy grid in the United States in 2006. NERC is subject to the oversight of FERC, which is the federal governmental agency in charge of regulating interstate electricity transmission.
Greenlane is firing up its second commercial EV truck charging corridor – this time connecting Southern California to Phoenix along Interstate 10. The move targets a major gap in electric freight infrastructure on one of the busiest shipping routes in the US.
Greenlane’s new electric truck corridor is backed by a strategic partnership with electric truck maker Windrose Technology, which has already proved the route’s viability. Its R700 Class 8 electric semi pulled off single-charge trips from Greenlane’s flagship Colton, California, site to Phoenix – nearly 300 miles – with a gross combined weight of 74,420 pounds and still had 12% battery left.
That’s no small feat for long-haul freight. Windrose also completed a Colton-to-Las Vegas run on I-15 under similar conditions. The trucks can charge fast, too – the R700 hit a peak 772 kW using dual-gun charging at Colton, cutting downtime for heavy-duty operations.
Windrose plans to build 2,000 electric trucks in 2026 and ramp up to 10,000 in 2027 worldwide. “Electric long-haul trucking isn’t just theory – it’s proven real-world performance,” said Windrose founder and CEO Wen Han.
The I-10 corridor will link Greenlane’s Colton hub to new sites in Blythe, California, and Greater Phoenix, Arizona. It’s part of the company’s larger plan to create a nationwide public charging network for medium- and heavy-duty fleets.
Electric trucking carrier Nevoya will be among the first customers to run the corridor. The company will use the Colton site as a charging and driver support base while operating battery-electric trucks along both I-10 and I-15.
Greenlane’s Colton flagship opened in April and packs over 40 high-speed chargers, including 12 pull-through bays for semis and 29 bobtail lanes. The site also has restrooms, Wi-Fi, 24/7 security, carports, office space, and parking – the kind of amenities long-haul drivers need on the road.
Read more: Greenlane’s flagship electric charging truck stop is now online
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Rivian has posted a job listing for a steering engineer, specifically mentioning work on a future steer-by-wire system for the company.
Update, Aug 11: Rivian has now specifically mentioned rear-wheel steering in a job posting.
Steer-by-wire is an automotive concept that has been around for a long time, but hasn’t yet reached mass adoption. The idea is to replace (or supplement) mechanical linkages between the steering wheel and the wheels with electronic actuators instead.
There are a number of potential benefits to this, like allowing more customizability or adaptability to a steering system, reducing mechanical complexity, or adding speed-sensitive variable steering ratios.
Although there are also disadvantages, like a reduction in steering feel (although, since most cars are moving to electronic power steering, that was already gone anyway).
But few cars have implemented steer-by-wire systems, or at least not fully committed to them, given that mechanical steering racks are a relatively solved problem and the general inertia of the car industry which would rather stick with a solution they know than switch to something better (haven’t we here, at this EV publication, heard *that* one before…). There’s also the matter of regulations, which have often been written to require mechanical steering systems, and may need updating to allow for steer by wire.
But, steer by wire made it into mass production with the release of the Tesla Cybertruck. This was big news when Tesla committed to this – at the time, it was the only thing on the road to exclusively use a steer by wire system, though there are other cars with partial steer by wire (for example, mechanical front wheel steering, and steer by wire rear-wheel steering).
But it seems to have opened the floodgates, as a number of other companies are working on or have since released steer by wire systems (Lexus, for example).
And now, it looks like Rivian is one of those companies – though we don’t know if it’s for the front or rear. (Update: Well, now we know, it looks like they are at the very least developing a rear-wheel steering system, according to another job listing. Though the company might still be working on steer-by-wire for the whole vehicle, too)
The company posted a job listing for “Sr. Staff Technical Program Manager, Steering Actuator System,” based at its Irvine, CA headquarters (spotted by Rivianforums). This wouldn’t be so exceptional, except that the job posting also specifically points out that “you’ll have full cradle-to-grave ownership of the SBW subsystem.”
So – we know they’re working on steer by wire, to some extent.
But a few other EVs, particularly large EVs like the Rivian R1 platform is, use steer by wire just for the rear wheels – for example the Hummer EV and Rolls-Royce Spectre. These systems are particularly helpful for giant vehicles, because it allows them to be more nimble and make turns that otherwise would require a lot more… negotiation in a giant land yacht.
So it’s possible that Rivian is only working on rear wheel steer by wire here, but we’d like to think there’s a chance it’s working on steer by wire for the full vehicle.
We also don’t know if this would show up on all of Rivian’s vehicles, or only on certain models – the R2 and R3 are in development, with R2 in pretty late stages, and the R1 just got a big refresh. But, perhaps even more interestingly (and very speculatively), VW has invested heavily in Rivian for technology help, so we wonder if we might end up seeing this in VW group vehicles, or Scout vehicles eventually…
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Automakers are scrambling to push their EVs out the door before the $7,500 Federal tax incentive for EVs disappears — and BMW is no different, offering aggressive cash back, owner loyalty, and special financing rates on its just-released 2026 model year EVs.
BMW has a history of offering solid loyalty incentive programs on its EVs in early summer to clear the tail-end of the model year and make room for the incoming builds, but CarsDirect is reporting some unusual loyalty deals from the brand that seem to suggest BMW is keen to capitalize on a spike in EV sales ahead of the Federal tax incentive’s looming cancellation in September.
BMW dealers now have the choice of adding an additional $1,000 loyalty contribution on select 2026 EVs. The i5 and i7 are offered with $1,000 and $4,000 loyalty bonuses, respectively, meaning if you drive a BMW and your dealer opts to tack on the extra bonus, you could save $5,000 on a 2026 i7. These loyalty programs are good when buying or leasing.
There’s also a $1,000 conquest bonus available for drivers of eligible EVs and PHEVs from other brands. This program is stackable with other offers.
Like other EV brands offering huge lease incentives, BMW customers will see the largest rebates on new BMWs when leasing. Now through September 30th, 2026 BMW i5, i7, and iX models are available with a stout $9,900 lease credit, while the bigger BMW XM comes in with a slightly lower, but still substantial $7,500 lease incentive.
Big deals on big BMW i7 sedan
People who prefer to own their vehicles once the payments are up can still score a great deal on an objectively excellent 2026 BMW i7 luxo-cruiser, thanks to the previously mentioned loyalty bonus if they’re previous customers plus a $7,500 Loan Credit that anyone can get when financing their new i7 with the brand’s captive financing company. BMW Bank offers financing rates as low a 3.99% for up to 60 months on the 2026 i5 and i7 sedans, as well as the iX crossover, as well as 4.99% APR 60-month rate on the high-performance XM plug-in hybrid.
The BMW iX, of course, snatched the top spot in J.D. Power’s EV Satisfaction Survey last year, having taken the crown from its BMW i4 stablemate. You can find out what’s behind that score here, or experience it for yourself at a local BMW dealer near you. Click the link(s) below to get a uniquely tailored offer on the exact BMW you want (trusted affiliate links).
SOURCES: CarsDirect, J.D. Power; images via BMW.
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