There is a critical question hanging over the events of the past few days.

Behind the chest-thumping from Donald Trump, and the bewilderment beyond at his statecraft-by-social-media, doubts have now reached fever pitch about the success of the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites.

Leaks from the US Defence Department suggest the bunker busting bombs dropped on Iran’s three nuclear enrichment sites might only have set the country’s nuclear capabilities back by months.

“We were assuming that the damage was going to be much more significant than this assessment is finding,” said one of three sources, speaking to NBC News.

“This assessment is already finding that these core pieces are still intact. That’s a bad sign for the overall programme.”

NBC News has spoken to three sources – all of whom say that the initial assessment by the Defence Intelligence Agency has concluded that the US airstrikes were not as effective as Mr Trump claimed.

Similar leaks were made to The New York Times, The Washington Post and CNN.

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Responding to the CNN leak, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community.”

She continued: “The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme. Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000lb bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”

In his address to the nation on Saturday night, Mr Trump had said: “I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has also dismissed the leaks, saying: “Based on everything we have seen – and I’ve seen it all – our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.

“Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target – and worked perfectly.”

“The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran, so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission.”

Battle Damage Assessments (BDAs) take a long time to be close to conclusive and require extensive intelligence analysis.

Speaking to Sky News, former director of the CIA and top US General David Petraeus cautioned about drawing any conclusions at this stage.

“Well, the truth is, it is just too soon. And those who are leaking should know that it takes a long time to do the battle damage assessment. And those who have actually pushed back in very conclusive ways also probably should have wait for the full results,” Gen Petraeus said.

“This is a very painstaking process. It’s an effort by the overall intelligence community, not just Defence Intelligence Agency. In fact, the CIA would be the lead in this effort to mine all sources of intelligence, imagery, intelligence of all types, signals, cyber, even open-source intelligence.”

Read more analysis:
There’s one F word Trump fears most
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Beyond the debate over the extent of the damage, questions remain over whether Iran might have managed to move equipment including centrifuges. Critically too, the whereabouts of about 400kg of highly enriched uranium is unknown.

The classified assessment of the military’s operation in Iran has been transmitted to Congress and has been viewed by some senators in a secure location, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation.

“I’ve reviewed the classified material,” Democratic Party Senator Tim Kaine, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said.

“I’m a little bit disappointed that my colleagues went and looked at it and mainly started talking about it publicly. That’s not we’re supposed to do with a classified report,” he added.

Speaking on Sunday to NBC’s Meet The Press, Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Danon insisted Iran’s nuclear capability had been dramatically set back.

“I think it’s still very early to jump into conclusions. We have to wait for the assessment. I can tell you one thing for sure. If you look where Iran was 12 days ago and where they are today, you understand that both Israel and the US were able to degrade the capabilities, push them back decades, and if we had an imminent threat, it doesn’t exist anymore.”

Failure – it’s the F word Donald Trump fears most.

Hence the early morning rant from a president, F for frustrated.

The day before had seen head-spinning developments in which a ceasefire between Israel and Iran turned on a Truth Social post.

If it felt fragile, that’s how it appeared overnight. There were exchanges between both sides beyond the deadline, and the president woke frustrated.

An unlikely diplomatic result looked exactly that.

Trump’s four-lettered fury was aimed primarily at Israel, which on Tuesday morning gave the appearance of an ally that had reeled him into the fight and wasn’t letting go.

It also leant into doubts around Trump’s influence over Israeli actions.

If this process is heading towards nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, Trump doesn’t need questions surrounding his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Tehran needs to believe Trump can tighten the leash.

It will have been comforted by his remarks on board Air Force One, from where he called Netanyahu.

Speaking to the travelling media, Trump said he didn’t want to see regime change in Iran, having floated support for the idea last week.

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Israel’s prime minister’s office issued a statement that spoke of having “achieved all the war’s objectives”.

The wording speaks to a move beyond aggression.

Time will tell, and this ceasefire feels fragile still, but it’ll do for Trump for now, the self-styled peacemaker making peace one social media post at a time.

He is strengthened by the success of his diplomacy, a fact laid bare – where else? – on Truth Social.

Read more:
How much damage did the US inflict on Iran?
Can Tehran trust Trump as a broker of peace?

As he flew towards the NATO summit, Trump posted a message from the NATO secretary general, Mark Rutte.

It’s unclear if Rutte knew it would be published, but it’s abundantly clear he’s a man with lips puckered as the US president swaggers towards the gathering.

Referring to NATO countries’ commitment to increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP, he wrote: “Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe and the world.

“You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.”

The effusive praise speaks to power enhanced for the US president as he prepares to attend the NATO gathering.

His stature is reinforced by his most recent result… as long as it lasts.

Iranian state television says a ceasefire in its war with Israel has now begun, following a night of missile strikes.

Israel’s ambulance service says at least four people were killed in overnight strikes, with footage from southern Israel showing extensive damage to what appeared to be a residential building.

Sirens sounded in several areas – and members of the public who received an alert were ordered to take shelter – with explosions heard over Tel Aviv.

Israel-Iran latest: Ceasefire deal has been reached

Early on Tuesday morning, US President Donald Trump declared: “The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!”

The message on Truth Social followed a series of posts on Monday, in which the president declared that a “complete and total ceasefire” had been agreed upon between the two countries and would begin at approximately 5am UK time.

In a post on X, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that Tehran “has no intention” to continue its response to Israel – provided it “stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people”.

Israeli media reports suggested Benjamin Netanyahu was also on board – provided Iran stops firing missiles towards the country – but there has been no official confirmation.

Mr Trump had written: “Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.

“On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both countries, Israel and Iran, on having the stamina, courage, and intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’

“This is a war that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will!”

In an interview with Sky News’ partner network NBC, the president said it was a “great day” for the US and the Middle East – and a “wonderful day” for the world.

“I’m very happy to have been able to get the job done. A lot of people were dying, and it was only going to get worse. It would have brought the whole Middle East down,” he said.

Mr Trump said he thinks the ceasefire is “unlimited” and is “going to go forever” – adding: “I don’t believe they will ever be shooting at each other again.”

Just hours earlier, people in the Qatari capital Doha had stopped and gazed up at the sky as Iranian missiles flew to the American al Udeid base and interceptors fired.

Officials said there were no casualties, and the US later confirmed it had been warned about the attack by Iran.

Mr Trump was in the Situation Room in the White House as the strikes took place.

He later claimed on his social network that the missiles were a “very weak response”, which the US “expected” and “very effectively countered”.

The Iranian attack came after the US dropped “bunker buster bombs” on three key nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend.

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In a new interview on Fox News, US Vice President JD Vance claimed Iran is no longer able to build nuclear weapons after the American attacks.

“Iran was very close to having a nuclear weapon,” he said. “Now Iran is incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because we destroyed it.”