Climate change: Next year set to be warmer than 2022 and one of the hottest years on record, Met Office experts say
Next year is forecast to be one of the hottest years on record and even warmer than 2022, experts have said.
Met Office scientists estimate that 2023 will be the 10th consecutive year in which global temperatures will be at least 1C above pre-industrial levels, measured as the period from 1850 to 1900.
The current hottest year on record is 2016, a year that saw an “El Nino” climate pattern in the Pacific, pushing up sea temperatures and therefore global temperatures on top of global warming trends.
Pic: Copernicus Climate Change Service
In recent years, the Pacific has experienced the opposite effect, “La Nina”, which has kept temperatures lower.
However, this is set to come to an end, says Dr Nick Dunstone, who has led the Met Office’s 2023 global temperature forecast.
“The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Nina – where cooler than average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific,” he said. “La Nina has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.
“For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Nina state, with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.
“This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”
The Met Office’s forecast predicts global average temperatures in 2023 will be around 1.2C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change.
Last year, experts predicted 2022’s global temperature would be between 0.97C and 1.21C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.09C. Data for the year to October suggests the temperature is around 1.16C above the pre-industrial era.
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At the COP27 climate summit, held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November, countries agreed a historic dedicated fund to help vulnerable nations hit by climate disasters, but failed to step up efforts to tackle the damaging emissions that cause them.
Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range prediction, said that while 2023 might not break the 2016 record it will likely see further high temperatures.
“Without a preceding El Nino to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series,” he said.
The Howden Reservoir, at the top of Derwent Valley in the Peak District, pictured earlier in 2022
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Dr Doug Smith, a climate prediction expert for the national weather service, said some parts of the world had seen greater increases than others.
“The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation across the world,” he said.
“Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”
UK
More than 500 people arrested after Palestine Action protest – with almost half aged 60 and above
The number of people arrested after a protest in London on Saturday supporting banned group Palestine Action has risen to 532, police have said.
Around half of them (259) were aged 60 and above – including almost 100 people who were in their 70s.
Some 522 arrests were for displaying a placard in support of a proscribed organisation contrary to Section 13 of the Terrorism Act 2000, according to the Metropolitan Police.
As of 9pm on Saturday, the number was put at 466.
Membership of, or support for, Palestine Action is a criminal offence punishable by up to 14 years in prison under the Terrorism Act.
A rally supporting Palestine Action in Parliament Square. Pic: Reuters
One of the arrests took place as the Palestine Coalition march formed in Russell Square, while 521 were at the protest in Parliament Square.
Of those arrested, the biggest number (147) was in the 60-69 age group, while 97 people were aged between 70 and 79, and 15 others were between 80-89.
Six were aged 17-19, sixty-five were in the 20-29 age group, 55 were aged 30-39, 45 were aged 40-49 and 89 were in the 50-59 age group.
The average age of those arrested was 54, while some 263 of those arrested were male, 261 were female and eight either defined themselves as non-binary or did not disclose their gender.
Among the arrests, six were for assaults on officers (none were seriously injured), one was for “obstructing a constable in the execution of his/her duty”, two were for breaching Section 14 Public Order Act conditions, and one was for a racially aggravated public order offence.
People attend the protest in central London. Pic: PA
Hundreds of people attended Saturday’s demonstration in Parliament Square, organised by Defend Our Juries, with the Metropolitan Police warning it would arrest anyone expressing support for Palestine Action.
Anyone who was arrested as part of the operation was taken to one of two prisoner processing points in the Westminster area.
Those whose details could be confirmed were released on bail to appear at a police station at a future date. They were given conditions not to attend future demonstrations related to Palestine Action.
Those who refused to provide their details at the prisoner processing points and those who were found to have been arrested while already on bail, were taken to one of a number of Met Police custody suites.
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Charity Amnesty International described the mass arrests under UK terrorism law as “deeply concerning”.
The crowd, sat on the grass inside Parliament Square, could be seen writing “I oppose genocide, I support Palestine Action” on white placards at 1pm, with the vast majority remaining silent.
Meanwhile on Sunday, hundreds of people joined a march on Downing Street to urge the release of those being held in Gaza by Palestinian militant group Hamas.
A scuffle broke out after at least two men shouted “Free Palestine” in front of the march.
One man was seen being bundled to the ground close to Trafalgar Square after being surrounded by around a dozen people.
Another man was seen being moved away by police officers after he began shouting.
Amnesty International says it is “deeply concerning” that police made 474 arrests during a Palestine Action demonstration in London.
Metropolitan Police said 466 were detained under the Terrorism Act for showing support for a banned group.
Eight more people were arrested for other offences, including five for assaulting officers.
The Met said it was the most arrests it’s made related to a single operation in at least the past decade.
Pic: PA
Organiser of the event, Defend Our Juries, earlier said up to 700 people were at the event in Parliament Square and claimed police were preparing for the “largest mass arrest in their history”.
The group said those arrested included former Guantanamo Bay detainee Moazzam Begg, NHS workers, quakers and a blind wheelchair user.
Amnesty International UK’s chief executive Sacha Deshmukh said in a statement: “The protesters in Parliament Square were not inciting violence and it is entirely disproportionate to the point of absurdity to be treating them as terrorists.
“Instead of criminalising peaceful demonstrators, the government should be focusing on taking immediate and unequivocal action to put a stop to Israel’s genocide and ending any risk of UK complicity in it.”
The Met said a “significant number of people” at the event were seen “displaying placards expressing support for Palestine Action”.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “The right to protest is one we protect fiercely but this is very different from displaying support for this one specific and narrow, proscribed organisation.
“Palestine Action was proscribed based on strong security advice following serious attacks the group has committed, involving violence, significant injuries and extensive criminal damage.”
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Palestine Action supporters arrested at protest
Police said those arrested had been taken to processing points in Westminster and any whose details could be confirmed were bailed on condition they didn’t attend further Palestine Action support events.
Others whose details could not be verified, possibly because they refused to give them, were taken to custody suites across London.
Pic: PA
The protests have put a strain on authorities’ capacity to cope.
Sky News understands senior leaders in the prison service, known as “Capacity Gold”, met today to discuss how to deal with the large number of arrests as the male prison estate is close to full.
It’s understood 800 inmates were moved out of the busiest jails in and around London beforehand.
In a statement, the Metropolitan Police Federation said: “Thinking of our colleagues and wishing all assaulted officers well. Remember there are no ‘extra’ police officers – just the same ones having their days off cancelled, having to work longer shifts and being moved from other areas. Officers are emotionally and physically exhausted.”
Read more: What does proscribing a group mean?
Legislation to ban Palestine Action came into force on 5 July, making it a criminal offence to show support for the organisation, carrying a prison sentence of up to 14 years.
Defend Our Juries said earlier this week the protest would still go ahead, following several similar demonstrations since it was outlawed last month.
On Saturday, a spokesperson said: “Palestine Action and people holding cardboard signs present no danger to the public at large.”
Pic: PA
Human rights advocates Amnesty International described the arrests of so many people under UK terrorism law as “deeply concerning”.
Another march organised by the Palestine Coalition, which is a separate group, set off from Russell Square and assembled on Whitehall.
The Met Police said one person had been arrested there for showing a placard in support of Palestine Action.
Pic: Reuters
Earlier this week, three people charged as a result of illegal Palestine Action activity were named.
Jeremy Shippam, 71, of West Sussex, Judit Murray, also 71, of Surrey, and Fiona Maclean, 53, of Hackney in east London, will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on 16 September.
The ban on Palestine Action faces a legal challenge in November after the High Court granted a full judicial review to Palestine Action co-founder Huda Ammori.
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