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Next year is forecast to be one of the hottest years on record and even warmer than 2022, experts have said.

Met Office scientists estimate that 2023 will be the 10th consecutive year in which global temperatures will be at least 1C above pre-industrial levels, measured as the period from 1850 to 1900.

The current hottest year on record is 2016, a year that saw an “El Nino” climate pattern in the Pacific, pushing up sea temperatures and therefore global temperatures on top of global warming trends.

Annual averages of global air temperature at a height of two metres estimated change since the pre-industrial period (left-hand axis) and relative to 1991-2020 (right-hand axis) according to different datasets: Red bars: ERA5 (ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, C3S); Dots: GISTEMPv4 (NASA); HadCRUT5 (Met Office Hadley Centre); NOAAGlobalTempv5 (NOAA), JRA-55 (JMA); and Berkeley Earth. Pic: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF
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Pic: Copernicus Climate Change Service

In recent years, the Pacific has experienced the opposite effect, “La Nina”, which has kept temperatures lower.

However, this is set to come to an end, says Dr Nick Dunstone, who has led the Met Office’s 2023 global temperature forecast.

“The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Nina – where cooler than average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific,” he said. “La Nina has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.

“For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Nina state, with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.

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“This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”

The Met Office’s forecast predicts global average temperatures in 2023 will be around 1.2C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change.

Last year, experts predicted 2022’s global temperature would be between 0.97C and 1.21C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.09C. Data for the year to October suggests the temperature is around 1.16C above the pre-industrial era.

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At the COP27 climate summit, held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November, countries agreed a historic dedicated fund to help vulnerable nations hit by climate disasters, but failed to step up efforts to tackle the damaging emissions that cause them.

Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range prediction, said that while 2023 might not break the 2016 record it will likely see further high temperatures.

“Without a preceding El Nino to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series,” he said.

As the long hot summer continues, reservoirs like Howden reservoir, at the top of the Derwent Valley in The Peak District, begin to show the cracks.
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The Howden Reservoir, at the top of Derwent Valley in the Peak District, pictured earlier in 2022

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Dr Doug Smith, a climate prediction expert for the national weather service, said some parts of the world had seen greater increases than others.

“The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation across the world,” he said.

“Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”

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Boy saved from burning car after M6 crash caused by suicidal ex-RAF pilot, inquest hears

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Boy saved from burning car after M6 crash caused by suicidal ex-RAF pilot, inquest hears

A workman saved a seven-year-old boy from a burning car in the aftermath of a deadly crash caused by a suicidal ex-pilot, an inquest has heard.

The schoolboy’s rescue came following the collision on the M6, which killed former RAF man Richard Woods and four others, in October last year.

Last week a coroner ruled that Woods, 40, took his own life by deliberately driving his Skoda the wrong way down the motorway while drunk and hitting a Toyota Yaris head-on.

The driver of the Toyota, Jaroslaw Rossa, 42, was also killed, along with his two sons, Filip, 15, and Dominic, seven, and his partner Jade McEnroe, 33.

Cockermouth Coroner’s Court heard on Thursday that Ms McEnroe’s son was also in the car but survived after workman Gavin Walsh came to his rescue at the scene, which was near Tebay services in Cumbria.

In a statement to the inquest, Mr Walsh said he was a passenger in a transit van travelling to Scotland when he witnessed the crash.

He jumped out of the vehicle and used a jack to smash the rear windscreen of the Toyota and pulled the boy out of the burning vehicle.

Mr Walsh said: “We really did try, I can assure everyone we did our best. We only had minimal time.

“I saved a life that day and I hope never to witness anything like that again.”

He added that he has never stopped thinking about the boy, and said: “I hope we will meet again one day and I will give you a massive hug.”

At the time, the family were returning to Glasgow from a trip to Legoland in Windsor, Berkshire.

The inquest heard that Wood, who was travelling at a speed of at least 65mph, would have been charged with manslaughter had he survived.

Recording conclusions of unlawful killing, Cumbria assistant coroner Margaret Taylor said: “I found that Jaroslaw, Jade, Filip and Dominic died as a consequence of the unlawful acts of another driver.”

The inquest heard how Mr Woods, from Cambridgeshire, had served a distinguished 14-year career in the RAF and was a flight instructor for BAE Systems at the time of his death.

Jade McEnroe and son Arran. Pic: Cumbria Constabulary
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Jade McEnroe. Pic: Cumbria Constabulary

Dominic and Filip Rossa. Pic: Cumbria Constabulary
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Dominic and Filip. Pic: Cumbria Constabulary

In Ms Taylor’s record of inquest, Mr Woods was said to have been experiencing “a number of stressors in his life” and had a “history of harmful use of alcohol”.

Following the crash, he was found to be nearly four times over the legal drink-drive limit and a two-thirds empty bottle of gin was found in his car.

On the day of his death, concerns had been raised over his behaviour at a work conference near Preston in Lancashire.

Mr Woods failed to return to his seat after lunch and was later spotted driving erratically and swerving across three northbound carriageway lanes on the M6.

After pulling onto the hard shoulder, he then proceeded to U-turn and drove southward on lane three.

Filip, Dominic and Jaroslaw Rossa. Pic: Cumbria Constabulary
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Filip, Dominic and Jaroslaw Rossa. Pic: Cumbria Constabulary

Detective Sergeant Deborah Story, from Cumbria Police, told the inquest that Mr Woods would have been prosecuted on four counts of manslaughter had he lived.

She said hypothetical charges of murder were considered by detectives but not thought appropriate because of a lack of information that Mr Woods knew the family or anything that provided a link between them.

Ms McEnroe’s parents, Marie McEnroe and George McNellis, told the coroner they thought it was “murder”.

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A statement from the mother of Filip and Dominic, and the ex-wife of Mr Rossa, Kamila, was read out at the inquest.

She said Mr Rossa, known as Jarek, was born in Poland where they became a couple and went on to have three boys.

He loved playing computer games and had “lots of friends”, she said, and worked at the Wagamama restaurant in Silverburn, Glasgow.

She said she was “devastated” over the deaths, adding: “Our lives will never be the same.

“I am heartbroken at the passing of my beloved angels Filip and Dominic.”

Marie McEnroe said her daughter, a spa therapist, had been in a relationship with Mr Rossa for about two-and-a-half years.

She said Jade had been a “brilliant mother” to her only child, was “really happy” with Mr Rossa and it was “lovely chaos” when all the boys were playing together.

Ms McEnroe added: “Life changed forever that day”.

Ms Taylor praised the “selfless acts of bravery” from those in the aftermath of the collision, including Mr Walsh, who she said went towards the burning car “without hesitation for his own safety”.

The coroner added: “Without his swift response, Jade’s child would also have perished.”

Addressing the bereaved family members, she said: “Your loss is unimaginable but you have conducted yourself with dignity and I thank you for that. I wish you strength for the future.”

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

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Thomas Kettleborough: ‘Vile’ former police inspector caught in child sex sting

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Thomas Kettleborough: 'Vile' former police inspector caught in child sex sting

A ‘vile’ former police officer who was caught in a sting operation after travelling to meet what he thought was a 14-year-old boy has been jailed.

Thomas Kettleborough, 35, then an inspector with Avon and Somerset Police, was arrested in July 2023 while attempting to meet up with ‘the teenager’ after communicating with him on Grindr and Snapchat.

However, he was actually speaking to undercover officers.

After being detained at a car park in Bristol, officers found a bag in the boot of his car containing “an assortment of sex toys, condoms and bondage equipment, including a pair of limb restraints,” Exeter Crown Court heard.

More than 150 indecent images of children were also discovered on his phone and computer.

Kettleborough used the apps to have sexually explicit chats with the teenager, using the name Liam, while claiming to be 28, prosecutors said.

In February, he pleaded guilty to several child sex offences, including attempting to engage in sexual communication with a child and attempting to cause or incite a child to engage in sexual activity.

Last month he was sacked by Avon and Somerset Police and barred from policing for gross misconduct.

He was sentenced to two years and eight months in prison on Thursday.

Assistant Chief Constable Joanne Hall, from Avon and Somerset Police, said the public would be “appalled by the vile and manipulative actions of this former officer”.

She added: “He was caught following a policing operation designed to keep children safe which has resulted in his wider offending being identified.”

Detective Inspector Dave Wells, who led the investigation, said Kettleborough’s crimes took place over four years,

The former officer held positions of trust in the police, the Sea Cadets and the Royal Lifesaving Society, but “concealed his true identity through an online persona as ‘Liam’, ‘L S’ and ‘Liamss5506’,” Mr Wells said.

Mr Wells added: “Specialist investigators are ready to listen and investigate any reports relating to Thomas Kettleborough or any other matters of concern. I want people to know that they will be believed.

“Thomas Kettleborough is now behind bars. I hope if there are others that have been affected by this case, they now feel empowered to tell someone, if they are ready to do so.”

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Lee Bremridge, defending, said Kettleborough had shown genuine remorse for his crimes.

He added that the former officer had “done everything that he can attempt to do to try and understand why it is he committed the offences that he did.”

Kettleborough was also handed an indefinite Sexual Harm Prevention Order and will be on the Sex Offenders’ Register for life.

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Girl, 13, dies in house fire

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Girl, 13, dies in house fire

A 13-year-old girl has died after a house fire in Merseyside.

Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service (MFRS) said it was called to the scene in Prescot, in the borough of Knowsley, at 11.42pm on Wednesday.

Crews arrived to find a blaze in the rear bedroom of a mid-terraced house.

In a statement, police said: “A man, woman and five children were able to escape from the property unharmed.

“Sadly, a 13-year-old girl was pronounced dead at the scene. Her family are aware and are being supported by specially trained officers.”

Police said four firefighters entered the property with breathing apparatus to tackle the fire, which was on the first floor, and search for people.

The blaze was extinguished at 12.29am on Thursday.

A joint investigation involving MFRS’s Incident Investigation Team and Merseyside Police has been launched.

Detective Inspector Steven O’Neill said: “Our thoughts are with the family of the young girl at this very sad time…

“A joint investigation into the cause of the fire is ongoing and the girl’s family is being supported by specially trained officers.”

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