The EU agreed to limit gas prices, but some analysts are skeptical
Pipes run along a technical facility for compressing natural gas on the site of astora GmbH’s Rehden natural gas storage facility, the largest in Western Europe.
Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
The European Union Monday concluded two months of heated talks over how to protect households from rising energy prices — but some analysts argue the bloc’s solution is unsustainable and might not withstand the realities of a 2023 gas supply crunch.
EU members compromised by adopting a “dynamic” cap on the price that can be bid for front-month gas contracts on Europe’s benchmark trading facility.
The level at which the cap is triggered was lowered to 180 euros per megawatt hour, after an initial proposal of 275 euros per megawatt hour was criticized as far too high by countries including Poland, Spain and Greece.
The 180 euro limit must be surpassed for three working days on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), and it must be 35 euros per megawatt above the global reference price for liquefied natural gas over the same period.
Several conditions were inserted to allay the concerns of members such as Germany, which had argued that the scheme could result in gas shortages next year. These clauses prompt an automatic suspension of the cap and include the dynamic bidding rate dropping below 180 euros per megawatt hour for three consecutive working days, or the European Commission declaring an emergency.
Germany eventually voted in favor of the so-called “market correction mechanism,” but the Netherlands and Austria abstained.
Austria’s ministry for climate action said in a Tuesday statement that while it was “confident that the market correction mechanism can play an important role to avoid extreme spikes in European gas prices, the last minute extension of the mechanism on more gas hubs than the TTF does issue some concerns.”
The ministry noted that “there are some risks that the necessary safeguards are undermined by this extension.” Austria depends on Russian gas.
Rob Jetten, Dutch energy minister, said that the mechanism remained “unsafe” despite the latest improvements. He flagged that it could disrupt the European energy market, risk security of supply and have wider financial implications.
“From its inception, we have been very clear about this mechanism: it does not solve the core problem,” he said, adding that the Netherlands’ concerns were shared by the European Central Bank and by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), the operator of the key natural-gas market in Europe.
The ECB earlier this month said “the current design of the proposed market correction mechanism may, in some circumstances, jeopardize financial stability in the euro area.” It declined to provide further comment to CNBC following the EU announcement.
ICE said in a statement it had “consistently voiced concerns” about the destabilizing impact of a price cap. It added that it would now review the details of the EU announcement to see whether it “can continue to operate fair and orderly markets for TTF from the Netherlands as per our European regulatory obligations.”
Easy to overturn?
The EU argued the mechanism will be monitored regularly and can be stopped if financial stressors or supply challenges are raised, in response to concerns flagged by the likes of the ECB.
Analysts told CNBC that these conditions called into question the ability of the mechanism to limit energy price rises.
“It reflects the challenge between strong rhetoric and the realities of the security of supply,” Nathan Piper, head of oil and gas research at Investec, said by phone. “It’s a cap, but allows them to operate above the cap if they really need the gas. The fact on the ground is, if you need the gas, you will pay any price, which is what Europe did in 2022.”
Piper listed two possible areas of additional upcoming demand: China and Europe. Beijing this month abruptly relaxed the zero-Covid policy it pursued this year. Europe has meanwhile managed to get its gas stores near-full for this winter by continuing to import Russian gas supplies — but plans to drop this intake drastically in 2023.
Europe and Asia remain net oil and gas importers, Piper continued, which means that intense competition for spot cargoes lies ahead. Around 70% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is tied up in long-term contracts, leaving 30% available on a spot basis.
In a Tuesday interview with Reuters, Norway’s prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre said he did not expect more Norwegian LNG to be exported outside of Europe as a result of the new EU measure.
But Piper said, “There is no motivation for spot LNG carriers [other] than the highest price. So volumes could go up elsewhere, and [European] security would be jeopardized.”
Janko Lukac, senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, echoed this sentiment to CNBC: “The efficiency of an unilateral cap on purchase prices from the EU is highly uncertain.”
“LNG markets globally and structurally will be short for the next couple of years. Hence, if an international buyer is willing to pay a higher price, Europe runs the risk that the respective volumes will go to another buyer,” he said.
Long-term measures
Energy Minister Rob Jetten said it was more important for the EU to focus on its electricity savings targets, on joint gas purchasing agreements and on issuing faster permits for renewable energy schemes.
Ending energy dependency was the key reason why Pavel Molchanov, managing director for renewable energy at wealth management firm Raymond James, said the mechanism was a “stop-gap measure.”
“The solution for Europe will be to diversify its energy mix away from fossil fuels entirely,” Molchanov told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” Tuesday.
“As it stands, about 20% of Europe’s electricity comes from natural gas, 10% comes from coal. Both of these commodities are up dramatically as a result of the war, and the Kremlin’s weaponization of energy exports.”
Energy transition solutions — such as wind, solar and green hydrogen, as well as increasing energy efficiency and removing coal from the electricity mix — could be put on an accelerated timetable to rid Europe of natural gas concerns within five years, he said.
Ending the war premium
EU ministers in favor of the mechanism were upbeat about its impact.
Kadri Simson, European commissioner for energy, said the initiative would “take away the war premium, the mark-up compared to global LNG prices, that Europe pays” due to pricing on the Dutch TTF.
Tinne Van der Straeten, Belgium’s energy minister, said the move would ensure security of supply while protecting citizens and the economy from higher prices.
Investec’s Nathan Piper also said that there were strong reasons why Europe needed to bring down gas prices beyond the strain on households.
“Very high gas prices for multiple years will have major impacts on the competitiveness of European industry. The U.S. gas price is a fraction of Europe’s because they are self-sufficient, so industry could move to where input costs are lower,” he said. “That means a long-term risk for Europe and the U.K. if energy costs can’t come down.”
With much of the US sweltering under a record-breaking heat dome, many EV buyers and owners are left wondering how their favorite electric cars perform in extreme summer temperatures. A new study tracking over 29,700 electric cars in real-world conditions provides the answers, and we’re sharing them here: these are the EVs that handle the summer heat best.
The EV leasing and subscription specialists Recurrent Auto have had tens of thousands of new and used EVs in their database over the years, giving them a massive dataset to analyze and draw conclusions from. So when they published their findings about which EVs had the best range in 90- and 100-degree weather, it was required reading for any would-be EV expert.
“Most of the country has a heat advisory right now, so we’re fielding lots of questions about EV batteries in extreme heat,” reads the intro to the Recurrent report. “Here’s the deal … electric cars work perfectly fine in hot weather. Range loss at 90F (32C) is minimal. Less than 5% change.”
Like many real-world aspects of EV ownership and longevity, that seems a lot better than what most people – or even most analysts would likely tell you. So, what gives?
“When temperatures pass 100F (37C), range impacts can be 17-18%,” they continue, “but these reductions are temporary while the AC is working to keep passengers cool … we advise that owners and dealerships avoid letting an EV sit with extremely low states of charge in this heat. An EV uses its battery power to keep the battery cool.”
The infographic
Recurrent’s findings put the Audi e-tron in the top spot, followed closely by recent JD Power favorites BMW i4 and Rivian R1S, all of which reportedly lose less than 3% of their range, even at an absolutely blistering 100°F.
To put those percentages into some easier to digest numbers (and fix the fact that Recurrent’s infographic makes it look, to my eyes, like you can’t drive a Nissan Ariya or Chevy Blazer at 100+ degrees), I’ve done the math, starting with the EV’s EPA-rated range under “ideal” conditions, then translated that using the percentages from Recurrent.
Would I bet my family’s safety and convenience on this rough-and-tumble chart while planning my next road trip? Absolutely not – go download Chargeway for that. Would I do the math because it’s a fun mental exercise that’s going to generate fun comments? Absolutely.
Check out the math, below, and if you see an EV you like in there click on the link in the table to go find a great local deal on a hot weather ready electric car near you. Links to Rivian and Tesla dealers weren’t included because they don’t have dealers.
EV range in extreme heat
SOURCES: Recurrent Auto, via LinkedIn; featured image via Audi.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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Time-of-use electricity plans are hardly a new concept, but what makes Octopus Energy’s new time-of-use plan, OctopusFlex, great is that it’s ridiculously simple.
It rewards its customers in Lubbock, Texas, for using power between 10 pm and 6 am with cheaper rates, when the grid is quieter and cleaner. That means big savings for choosing to run your dishwasher or washer and dryer at night or charging your EV while you sleep.
And if customers use EV charger apps and smart thermostats, OctopusFlex automatically shifts electricity use to off-peak hours, which makes a real difference in accessing lower rates and saving money.
“This is about more than off-peak discounts,” said Nick Chaset, CEO of Octopus Energy US. “We’re giving customers the power to save money while actively supporting a cleaner, more balanced grid.”
Built around customer feedback, OctopusFlex is designed for total transparency. Customers can see exactly how and when they’re using electricity, what it’s costing them, and no connected devices are required. All they have to do is remember that electricity is cheaper from 10 pm to 6am.
“We’re thrilled to launch OctopusFlex, a plan our customers asked for and helped name,” said Katie Rosario, marketing manager. “With OctopusFlex, customers can shift energy use on their terms to save money.”
And in the summer, when solar power is strong and demand shifts, OctopusFlex customers could see low rates not just overnight, but all day long. (This program is designed for folks who don’t have solar and battery storage.)
“Time-of-use is one of the easiest ways to cut energy bills and reward flexibility,” said Daniel Kirwin, product manager. “We couldn’t be more excited to bring this to Texas.”
By nudging demand to off-peak hours, OctopusFlex helps reduce the strain on Texas’ grid during scorching summer afternoons, cuts the risk of blackouts, and makes room for more renewable energy.
Want to make the most of it? Pre-cool your home in the early morning, run big appliances overnight, charge your EV after 10 pm, and use smart plugs or timers to set and forget.
OctopusFlex is now live in Lubbock, Texas, where Octopus Energy became a retail provider in early 2024. Octopus Energy launched in 2016 and entered the US market in 2020. The company is part of Octopus Group, a global certified BCorp operating in 18 countries.
Read more: This Texas EV lease company includes unlimited free home charging
To limit power outages and make your home more resilient, consider going solar with a battery storage system. In order to find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and you share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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