
Unlikely turnarounds, keeping the faith and the enduring appeal of bad college football
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3 years agoon
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adminJERRY KILL CONSIDERS himself something of a Mr. Fix-It for programs in need of a serious overhaul, the college football equivalent of an HGTV host who must convince an overwhelmed couple that the crumbling mess they just took out a mortgage to buy can, with a little hard work and the right crew of contractors, become a dream home. He’s renovated places like Northern Illinois and Minnesota before, and he likes the reputation.
Still, when Kill took the job of head coach at woeful New Mexico State last year, it didn’t seem like a renovation job. More like a dare.
“I had coaches tell me I was crazy,” Kill said.
The concern was well-founded. In the previous 60 years, the Aggies made it to exactly one bowl game. The budget, facilities and fan engagement were abysmal. The team was bad — going 3-9 or worse nine times since 2008 — and recruiting to New Mexico was difficult. There were plans to join Conference USA, but at the moment, New Mexico State was muddling through as an independent.
“I was told there’s no way to win there, and this was the worst program in the country,” Kill said. “I thought, ‘Hey, those are the kinds of challenges I like.'”
The funny thing is, Kill isn’t alone. In college football, perhaps more than any other sport, there’s something inexorably alluring about the truly awful. Sure, most fans wouldn’t invest their careers in restoring New Mexico State the way Kill has, but every week, thousands of them invest a few hours into watching — dare we say, enjoying? — truly bad football in the hopes of seeing a miracle unfold or, at the very least, witnessing failure in the most interesting way possible.
Call it bad football, ugly football, sickos football — whatever the name, its charm is undeniable in a way that simply isn’t true of nearly any other form of entertainment. Yes, the cultural zeitgeist might occasionally stumble upon William Hung or Right Said Fred, but those are enjoyed with a measure of ironic detachment. And sure, sports fans have their butt fumbles and, well, pretty much the entire history of the Detroit Lions, but those are as sad as they are funny.
Bad college football, however, is something akin to cult classic movies of the “so bad they’re good” variety, enjoyable on their own merits once you buy into the central conceit. Whether it’s Patrick Swayze earnestly insisting “pain don’t hurt” in “Roadhouse” or Butch Jones announcing his awful 2017 Tennessee Volunteers won the “championship of life,” the line between ridiculous and sublime is effectively nonexistent.
At its heart, the joy of watching bad college football is rooted in the same passion that drove Kill to take the New Mexico State job. For Kill, turning abject failure into something approaching coherence is actually fun. That’s more or less the same reason so many fans tune in for Tuesday night MAC-tion or Pac-12 After Dark. There’s joy in finding something awful and sticking with it long enough to see what happens next because, particularly in college football, the possibilities seem endless. And if, against all odds, something magical does happen, we can say we knew it all along.
Kill’s dream home is still in the early stages of construction, but the job has been unquestionably rewarding. Walls are starting to go up. The foundation has been laid, and he’s starting the frame. He can see the progress.
“Everybody wants to see an underdog get going,” Kill said. “And they’ll watch to see if it can be sustained. You know, it takes a little time to build a house, and we’re planning to build a big one.”
FOR CONNOISSEURS OF bad college football, 2022 has been a revelation.
Think back to the opening week of the season, when Iowa defeated South Dakota State 7-3 on the strength of a field goal, two safeties and an unwavering commitment to avoiding forward progress. It was riveting. At nearly the exact same time, North Carolina and Appalachian State combined to score 62 points in the fourth quarter of their game. Every series was more ridiculous than the last. It was can’t-miss TV because of so many can-miss tackle attempts.
We watched Texas A&M collapse under the weight of Jimbo Fisher’s playbook, Iowa punt its way into the hearts of a nation and Nebraska play so horribly the Huskers even cursed the teams who beat them. We watched TCU keep its bowl hopes alive in what amounted to a game of chicken against the play clock. And those were just the name brands who rewarded us with sicko football performance art.
On the flip side, we had some truly amazing Cinderella stories, too. Three of the four worst teams during the decade from 2012 to 2021 made a bowl this year. The worst team in four of the Power 5 leagues over the previous decade made bowls. Duke, Southern Miss, Rice, Bowling Green and Georgia Southern (combined 14-34 last year) are all in bowls, too. Tulane (2-10 last year) is playing in a New Year’s Six game. It’s been a truly incredible run from utter despair to, well, the upper end of mediocrity, at least.
So why is this all so oddly exciting?
Matthew Stohl is a professor at the University of Montana who explored the paradox of enjoying bad films in his book, “Why It’s OK to Like Bad Movies,” and he sees similar logic in the appreciation of bad football.
First, Stohl said, there’s a critical formula involved in the process, whereby the cost of production must far outweigh the cost of consumption. Movies — even the really bad ones — require a lot of resources to produce. The creators put real effort into making them, even if they turned out horribly. But watching a bad movie? That’s a mere 90 minutes of time for the viewer. It’s a low-cost form of entertainment. The same is true in college football. The games have genuine stakes for the programs involved, but for the fans, it can be a harmless guilty pleasure. If UConn wins or loses by 50, it costs the fan nothing more than a few hours of time.
The second necessary ingredient is the opportunity for chaos. This is where college football truly shines. Why does a movie so utterly incoherent as “The Room” have such a wide audience? Because every scene is somehow a non sequitur. Go back and watch the fourth quarter of that UNC-App State game. It’s the same thing — utter ridiculousness and zero continuity.
“Even the worst NFL isn’t really that bad,” Stohl said. “In college football, there’s so much more chaos and variance.”
Indeed, the best NFL team of all time (say, the 2007 New England Patriots) was only about 36 points per game better than the worst NFL team of all time (say, the 1990 Patriots). This year, Georgia was at least 36 points per game better than 18 college teams. Guys with NFL aspirations play on the same field as guys hoping to start a hedge fund in a few years. The opportunity for chaos is limitless.
0:41
Weber State is on the wrong end of the record books as it surrenders four safeties on errant special teams snaps.
From there, Stohl said, we can split “so bad it’s good” into two categories.
The first is the point-and-laugh group, which typically sees a once-powerful figure stripped of its cache. Think of the movie “Cats,” which was based on a long-running Broadway musical, had a massive budget and an all-star cast and yet, it was horrendous. In college football parlance, it was this year’s Texas A&M team.
The second is the lovable underdog story, the misfit auteur working on a shoestring budget, trying and often failing miserably, but at least doing it in a memorable way. Think “Plan Nine From Outer Space” or UMass‘ entire FBS history.
And tying it all together is a sense of community. Why do fans line up for midnight showings of “The Rocky Horror Picture Show” or quote lines from “Point Break” in casual conversation? The same reason the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl was arguably the pinnacle of college football Twitter. It says we’re all in on the same joke — a joke that has long since ceased to be funny and, instead, evolved into a sort of personal identity. Bad football brings us together.
Think of it in those terms — applauding sincere effort, craving the unexpected, reveling in upended power dynamics, bonding over shared misery — and bad college football is something more than just sport. It’s the very heart of being an American.
Or, maybe it’s just funny to see how many times Iowa can punt in one game.
JORDAN EDMONSON AND George Smith have never met in real life, but they’ve become something like the dynamic duo of bad football over the past two seasons.
The two first crossed paths in 2020 on the social media app Discord, where groups of fans would chat about games during the course of a Saturday slate. Edmonson went to Dartmouth and, for grad school, North Texas, while Smith once considered himself “the internet’s only ULM fan,” and since they were so familiar with relatively bad football programs, they actually loved watching smaller schools and bad games.
“We found ourselves watching things like UTEP and New Mexico State and we were having so much fun with those games,” Edmonson said.
From there, the Sickos Committee was born.
The name comes from the popular meme, in which a man wearing a shirt reading “Sickos” peers through a window, while chanting, “Yes … Ha ha ha … Yes!” It’s an avatar for Edmonson, Smith and their now nearly 80,000 Twitter followers’ obsession with bad football — or, as Smith calls it, “unconventionally appealing football.”
Yes, Smith knows this makes him sound like a hipster, but there’s nothing ironic about the Sickos, he said. The goal is to give a little shine to the teams that never quite muscle their way into the spotlight on their own.
“Our motto here is all football is good football,” Smith said. “This is not something to punch down. We do the meme thing when someone does something silly, but we’re trying to find joy in [the ridiculous] and — like the Iowa fans really embraced us.”
Ah, yes, Iowa — a team that found new ways to not score points on a weekly basis. The Hawkeyes were an absolute delight.
To say there is genuine excitement for Iowa’s date with Kentucky in this year’s TransPerfect Music City Bowl would be a massive understatement. The Hawkeyes’ hapless offense will face off against a Kentucky team that was held to 21 points or less in six of its past eight games — and both teams will play without their starting quarterbacks. The over/under is currently 31, and even that seems like a long shot.
Of course, any true fan of sickos football can tell you the Music City Bowl has a long way to go to eclipse the biggest train wreck in bowl history.
Jason Benetti called the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl for ESPN and he struggles to decide his favorite moment. On one hand, TCU’s sports information director got called for a penalty, “and that should be the most ridiculous thing that happens in a game,” Benetti said. But then how can he overlook the fact that two — two! — interceptions were overturned because the quarterback was beyond the line of scrimmage when he threw the pass?
Oh, and the game still had nine interceptions.
At the end of regulation, Cal and TCU were tied at 7. Of course this game needed overtime.
Benetti said he’s used to getting texts from a few friends during games, “but by the end of this one, like half my phonebook had texted me asking, ‘What the hell was that?'”
Benetti chalked it up to a thesis he once heard on an episode of “This American Life” titled “Fiasco.” It states that at the beginning of a performance, the audience is rooting for the performers. They want a good show. But as more and more things go wrong, a Rubicon is crossed, and soon, the audience is simply rooting for more chaos.
The Onion didn’t design the Sickos meme for this game, but it fits perfectly.
And here’s the thing Benetti has realized about that game — and about the genuine love of bad football. It’s a contradiction that feels natural on a college campus. When we’re young, we can thumb our noses at authority and defy the tropes of everyday life and do something dumb just for laughs and never give a second thought to the larger repercussions. After college, the real world narrows our focus and insists we strive toward success.
Bad college football, Benetti said, isn’t just bad. It’s subversive, and it offers a small taste of a time when we were too.
SOMEWHERE DEEP WITHIN the bowels of Bottom 10 Headquarters, past the cardboard cutout of Charlie Weis, the shattered remnants of the Civil ConFLiCT trophy and the boxes of Florida State‘s unused turnover backpacks, Ryan McGee has been studying awful college football for — well, it’s hard to keep track of time after sifting through UMass game tape. It’s been a while though.
McGee authors ESPN’s weekly Bottom 10 rankings, which rewards — is that the right word? — the worst 10 teams in the country for their ongoing efforts to escape their miserable lots in life. It is, he swears, an act of love.
Well, maybe not for places like Nebraska or Texas A&M. They’re more like the jocks who are forced to play Dungeons & Dragons with the AV Club kids. They’ll learn to love it, but those initial weeks are uncomfortable, to say the least.
For everyone else, however, there’s a strange honor in being part of the Bottom 10. Anyone can have a bad season, after all, but 4-8 is forgettable, while 1-11 is an all-out, hair-on-fire joyride. There’s a real logic in the notion that, if you’re going to be bad, at least be bad enough to be interesting.
Cam Warner has been a Kansas fan his entire life, and he’s all too familiar with the Bottom 10. For more than a decade, it was home. Was he happy about it? It’s complicated.
“Even just seeing Kansas on a list for being bad was better than not being on anything,” Warner said, “because it’s recognition. It’s seeing what you identify with out in the public, and I think that’s always cool — like, I identify with that, with being one of the Forgotten Ones. I mean, I think about Bowling Green more than I think about Wake Forest.”
(Note to Dave Clawson, who coached at both of those schools: Warner’s examples are purely his own, and any and all complaints should be directed to him.)
To be truly at the bottom — rock bottom — offers a lot of freedom to accept failure and find joy in even the smallest success.
Once, in the 2015 opener against South Dakota State, Kansas flubbed an attempt to spike the ball and stop the clock on a potential game-tying drive because the center snapped the ball over the quarterback’s head, and the QB’s knee touched the ground as he recovered the errant snap.
It was misery — but it was memorable.
Twice during Kansas’ decade of misery, the Jayhawks managed to knock off big, bad Texas.
Those wins were memorable because of all the misery that preceded them.
The enjoyment of college football isn’t measured linearly. It’s actually a circle, whereby the distance between abject failure and transcendent joy can be covered by just one small step.
McGee remembers watching New Mexico State play Idaho in 2015, when the Aggies were riding a 17-game losing streak — the nation’s longest at the time. New Mexico State, leading 55-48, survived a final Idaho drive when a Vandals pass was deflected by one defender then intercepted by another, who used his feet to corral the pick. It was sheer lunacy.
After the game, at nearly 2 a.m. on the East Coast, McGee’s phone rang. It was the Aggies’ sports information director with a message.
“You need to know,” the SID said, “that as we were celebrating in the locker room, I had a player ask me, ‘Do you think this gets us out of the Bottom 10?'”
WARNER GAINED FAME when a camera caught him in the stands during another ugly Kansas loss in 2017. He was holding a sign — white paper with three words printed on it: I am sad.
This is the part of bad football no one likes to talk about. It may be fun or exciting or hilarious for the casual observer, but for those who live with it week after week, year after year, it is also a little sad. It is sad because, for some small group of die-hards, Stohl’s formula is off. The cost of consumption is actually quite high. They’re bought in. They have hope. They’re Charlie Brown thinking maybe this time, Lucy won’t pull the ball away at the last second.
Warner’s moment of infamy only told half the story, after all. He had a second sign, too, on which he’d printed a different message: I am happy. He planned to hold that one up when Kansas made a big play. Poor fool.
If that’s the burden for fans, it can feel like an absolutely crushing weight for the coaches and players, UConn athletics director David Benedict said.
“[Head coach] Jim [Mora] came in and changed the mindset of our student-athletes and instilled a confidence and an expectation on how they have to work to be successful,” Benedict said. “That’s one of the most difficult things to do in coaching. When you come into a program that hasn’t won for a decade, it’s tough. It’s really tough.”
And yet, sometimes the hope is rewarded. Sometimes, the stars align. Sometimes bad football is just the long, grueling precursor to something better.
This season, ESPN’s College Gameday came to Lawrence, Kansas.
This season, Tulane is headed to the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.
This season, UConn won six games — a total Benedict fully believed could happen, “even if it might’ve seemed delusional.” He now views this as just a starting point.
“It’s easy for people on the outside to crush your program when you’re not having success,” Benedict said. “But the bottom line is it was a hard program to root for over the past decade, but that’s what’s so fun right now.”
At New Mexico State, Kill was more subdued in his optimism. Six wins never crossed his mind. In fact, he set eight goals for his team — things like reliability, accountability and respect for authority that he had displayed on the video board during every practice. None mentioned winning.
Still, on his first day at New Mexico State, Kill told his players to practice celebrating. It must have sounded like dialogue from “The Room,” completely detached from the plot. But for Kill, it was the only way to start a new story.
“The first day I took the job, I made them take a victory lap,” Kill said. “Because every time we win, you’re going to take a victory lap and thank the fans. So we practice it.”
A funny thing happened after that. New Mexico State started winning — six of its last eight games to end the 2022 season. The Aggies will play in a bowl, just their second since 1960. And their fans — the ones in Las Cruces and the ones who’d watched out of morbid curiosity — can finally take a victory lap, too.
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Sports
Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time
Published
19 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET
For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.
The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.
Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.
The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.
Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.
The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.
The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.
Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.
The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.
“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”
Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.
Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.
The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).
The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.
Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.
“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”
The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.
Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.
• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.
• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.
• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.
• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.
Sports
AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team
Published
19 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
admin
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET
Close- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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