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Satya Nadella, chief executive officer of Microsoft Corp., during the company’s Ignite Spotlight event in Seoul on Nov. 15, 2022.

SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Google has for years been playing catch-up in the cloud infrastructure market, where it’s seen in the industry as a distant third in the U.S., behind Amazon and Microsoft. The challenge for investors is that the three companies don’t report cloud infrastructure metrics in a way that makes them easily comparable.

However, an internal estimate assembled by Google employees, based on a leaked Microsoft document and some extrapolation of other market statistics, suggests Google believes it’s closer to second place than analysts think.

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Google’s document estimates that Microsoft generated under $29 billion in Azure consumption revenue in the latest fiscal year, which ended June 30, reflecting the value of cloud infrastructure services used by clients. That’s several billion dollars less than what Wall Street analysts had forecast. Bank of America was the most bullish, predicting Azure would pull in $37.5 billion in fiscal 2022. Cowen predicted revenue of $33.9 billion and UBS said $32.3 billion.

The document from Google has Azure ending the 2022 fiscal year with an operating loss of almost $3 billion, down from a loss of more than $5 billion the prior year. It claims that Azure’s sales and marketing costs approached $10 billion, accounting for 34% of consumption revenue. Microsoft said sales and marketing costs for the whole company equaled 11% of revenue over the same period.

One analyst dismissed Google’s bottom-line tally.

“There’s no way it’s that big of a loss,” said Derrick Wood, an analyst at Cowen who has the equivalent of a buy rating on Microsoft stock. His research shows Azure boasting an operating margin above 30%, compared with Google’s estimate of a -10% margin.

Cloud represents one of the most high-stakes battles in technology, as the biggest and most well-capitalized U.S. tech companies try to win lucrative deals from large enterprises and government agencies, which are increasingly pushing critical computing and storage needs out of their own data centers.

Google and Microsoft have been investing heavily to keep Amazon Web Services from dominating the market the e-commerce company pioneered in 2006. But the companies aren’t completely forthcoming about their results.

Microsoft provides year-over-year growth for Azure and other cloud services but doesn’t give a dollar figure, nor does it specify how much of the growth comes just from Azure. The Azure and other cloud services metric also includes, among other things, enterprise mobility and security, or EMS, tools that can be sold separately.

Google parent Alphabet, meanwhile, doesn’t tell investors how much revenue or operating income the Google Cloud Platform, or GCP, generates. It only discloses those figures for what it calls Google Cloud, which includes subscriptions to Google Workspace collaboration software, as well as GCP, a direct Azure rival.

Amazon reports both revenue and operating income for AWS, giving investors the cleanest picture of its cloud business among the three companies. AWS recorded an operating margin of 26% in the third quarter, while Google’s cloud group reported an operating margin of -10%.

Microsoft has never laid out gross profit or operating profit for the Azure division. CEO Satya Nadella said in 2019 that customer adoption of “higher-level services” beyond raw computing and storage resources can lead to “good margins long term.”

According to data from Gartner, AWS controlled 39% of the global cloud infrastructure market in 2021, followed by Microsoft at 21%, China’s Alibaba at 9.5% and Google at 7.1%.

Representatives for Google and Microsoft declined to comment for this story.

How Google came up with its estimates

According to Google’s document, the analysis follows an Insider article, which cited a leaked Microsoft presentation that included Azure consumption revenue, or ACR, for its U.S. enterprise business in the past few years. Google said in its document that the leaked presentation allowed for a more accurate modeling of the business, and Google’s calculations suggest that ACR is the main source of revenue for Azure and other cloud services.

Google made a series of assumptions based on the leaked ACR information. It came up with a possible number for ACR abroad using Microsoft’s statement that around 51% of total revenue in fiscal 2022 derived from customers located in the U.S. Google then added in revenue from other customer segments, such as public sector and regulated industries, based on market data from Gartner and other sources.

To determine operating expenses, Google assumed that 65,000 people are dedicated to or work mainly on Azure, referring to an Insider report that said Microsoft’s Cloud and Artificial Intelligence organization had over 60,000 employees.

If Google is right, Microsoft’s ACR would be about 40% the size of Amazon’s AWS business and 27% larger than Google’s cloud business.

“Analysts include revenue allocations from EMS and Power BI, both of which are highly profitable SaaS businesses with estimated gross margins above 80%,” Google’s document says. “For a realistic analysis of Azure’s profitability these allocations have to be removed.”

Google concluded that Microsoft’s ACR growth slowed from 61% in the 2020 fiscal year to about 50% in the 2022 fiscal year. That’s faster growth than the figure Microsoft provides for all of Azure and other cloud services, which went from 56% expansion to 45% over the same period.

Google projected that Azure’s gross profit, or the revenue left after accounting for the cost of goods sold, expanded from below 29% in fiscal 2019 to almost 63% in fiscal 2022. Microsoft CFO Amy Hood has said hardware and software efficiencies helped the company widen Azure’s gross margin.

At those levels, cloud would be less profitable than Microsoft’s Windows and Office software franchises. Microsoft’s total gross margin in the 2022 fiscal year was about 68%.

None of the three U.S. market leaders announces gross margins for their cloud groups.

Cowen expects the broader Azure and other cloud services group to account for 27% of Microsoft’s revenue in the current 2023 fiscal year. He says Microsoft could clarify things by providing a more granular breakdown.

“To have a more specific disclosure on that would be helpful,” Wood said.

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Supreme Court set to hear oral arguments on challenge to TikTok ban

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Supreme Court set to hear oral arguments on challenge to TikTok ban

Tik Tok creators gather before a press conference to voice their opposition to the “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act,” pending crackdown legislation on TikTok in the House of Representatives, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 12, 2024.

Craig Hudson | Reuters

The Supreme Court on Friday will hear oral arguments in the case involving the future of TikTok in the U.S., which could ban the popular app as soon as next week.

The justices will consider whether the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, the law that targets TikTok’s ban and imposes harsh civil penalties for app “entities” that continue to carry the service after Jan.19, violates the U.S. Constitution’s free speech protections.

It’s unclear when the court will hand down a decision, and if China’s ByteDance continues to refuse to divest TikTok to an American company, it faces a complete ban nationwide.

What will change about the user experience?

The roughly 115 million U.S. TikTok monthly active users could face a range of scenarios depending on when the Supreme Court hands down a decision.

If no word comes before the law takes effect on Jan. 19 and the ban goes through, it’s possible that users would still be able to post or engage with the app if they already have it downloaded. However, those users would likely be unable to update or redownload the app after that date, multiple legal experts said.

Thousands of short-form video creators who generate income from TikTok through ad revenue, paid partnerships, merchandise and more will likely need to transition their businesses to other platforms, like YouTube or Instagram.

“Shutting down TikTok, even for a single day, would be a big deal, not just for people who create content on TikTok, but everyone who shares or views content,” said George Wang, a staff attorney at the Knight First Amendment Institute who helped write the institute’s amicus briefs on the case. 

“It sets a really dangerous precedent for how we regulate speech online,” Wang said.

Who supports and opposes the ban?

Dozens of high-profile amicus briefs from organizations, members of Congress and President-elect Donald Trump were filed supporting both the government and ByteDance.

The government, led by Attorney General Merrick Garland, alleges that until ByteDance divests TikTok, the app remains a “powerful tool for espionage” and a “potent weapon for covert influence operations.”

Trump’s brief did not voice support for either side, but it did ask the court to oppose banning the platform and allow him to find a political resolution that allows the service to continue while addressing national security concerns. 

The short-form video app played a notable role in both Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ presidential campaigns in 2024, and it’s one of the most common news sources for younger voters.

In a September Truth Social post, Trump wrote in all caps Americans who want to save TikTok should vote for him. The post was quoted in his amicus brief. 

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Nvidia’s tiny $3,000 computer steals the show at CES

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Nvidia's tiny ,000 computer steals the show at CES

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks about Project Digits personal AI supercomputer for researchers and students during a keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Nevada on January 6, 2025. Gadgets, robots and vehicles imbued with artificial intelligence will once again vie for attention at the Consumer Electronics Show, as vendors behind the scenes will seek ways to deal with tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump. The annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) opens formally in Las Vegas on January 7, 2025, but preceding days are packed with product announcements. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP) (Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was greeted as a rock star this week CES in Las Vegas, following an artificial intelligence boom that’s made the chipmaker the second most-valuable company in the world.

At his nearly two-hour keynote on Monday kicking off the annual conference, Huang packed a 12,000-seat arena, drawing comparisons to the way Steve Jobs would reveal products at Apple events.

Huang concluded with an Apple-like trick: a surprise product reveal. He presented one of Nvidia’s server racks and, using some stage magic, held up a much smaller version, which looked like a tiny cube of a computer.

“This is an AI supercomputer,” Huang said, while donning an alligator skin leather jacket. “It runs the entire Nvidia AI stack. All of Nvidia’s software runs on this.”

Huang said the computer is called Project Digits and runs off a relative of the Grace Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) that are currently powering the most advanced AI server clusters. The GPU is paired with an ARM-based Grace central processing unit (CPU). Nvidia worked with Chinese semiconductor company MediaTek to create the system-on-a chip called GB10.

Formerly known as the Consumer Electronics Show, CES is typically the spot to launch flashy and futuristic consumer gadgets. At this year’s show, which started on Tuesday and wraps up on Friday, several companies announced AI integrations with appliances, laptops and even grills. Other major announcements included a laptop from Lenovo which has a rollable screen that can expand vertically. There were also new robots, including a Roomba competitor with a robotic arm.

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Unlike Nvidia’s traditional GPUs for gaming, Project Digits isn’t targeting consumers. instead, it’s aimed at machine learning researchers, smaller companies, and universities that want to developed advanced AI but don’t have the billions of dollars to build massive data centers or buy enough cloud credits.

“There’s a gaping hole for data scientists and ML researchers and who are actively working, who are actively building something,” Huang said. “Maybe you don’t need a giant cluster. You’re just developing the early versions of the model, and you’re iterating constantly. You could do it in the cloud, but it just costs a lot more money.”

The supercomputer will cost about $3,000 when it becomes available in May, Nvidia said, and will be available from the company itself as well as some of its manufacturing partners. Huang said Project Digits is a placeholder name, indicating it may change by the time the computer goes on sale.

“If you have a good name for it, reach out to us,” Huang said.

Diversifying its business

The Nvidia Project Digits supercomputer during the 2025 CES event in Las Vegas, Nevada, US, on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. 

Bridget Bennett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“It was a little scary to see Nvidia come out with something so good for so little in price,” Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes wrote in a note this week. He said Nvidia may have “stolen the show,” due to Project Digits as well other announcements including graphics cards for gaming, new robot chips and a deal with Toyota.

Project Digits, which runs Linux and the same Nvidia software used on the company’s GPU server clusters, represents a huge increase in capabilities for researchers and universities, said David Bader, director of the Institute for Data Science at New Jersey Institute of Technology.

Bader, who has worked on research projects with Nvidia in the past, said the computer appears to be able to handle enough data and information to train the biggest and most cutting-edge models. He told CNBC Anthropic, Google, Amazon and others “would pay $100 million to build a super computer for training” to get a system with these sorts of capabilities.

For $3,000, users can soon get a product they can plug into a standard electrical outlet in their home or office, Bader said. It’s particularly exciting for academics, who have often left for private industry in order to access bigger and more powerful computers, he said.

“Any student who is able to have one of these systems that cost roughly the same as a high-end laptop or gaming laptop, they’ll be able to do the same research and build the same models,” Bader said.

Reitzes said the computer may be Nvidia’s first move into the $50 billion market for PC and laptop chips.

“It’s not too hard to imagine it would be easy to just do it all themselves and allow the system to run Windows someday,” Reitzes wrote. “But I guess they don’t want to step on too many toes.”

Huang didn’t rule out that possibility when asked about it by Wall Street analysts on Tuesday.

He said that MediaTek may be able to sell the GB10 chip to other computer makers in the market. He made sure to leave some mystery in the air.

“Obviously, we have plans,” Huang said.

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Elon Musk promotes far-right Alternative for Germany candidate, hosts discussion on X

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Elon Musk promotes far-right Alternative for Germany candidate, hosts discussion on X

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party, arrives to speak to the media with AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla shortly after the AfD leadership confirmed Weidel as the party’s candidate for chancellor on December 07, 2024 in Berlin, Germany. 

Maryam Majd | Getty Images

Elon Musk used his social network X to promote Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany party, known as AfD, hosting a live discussion Thursday with party leader Alice Weidel, a candidate for chancellor, ahead of a general election on Feb. 23.

“I’m really strongly recommending that people vote for AfD,” Musk, who is CEO of Tesla and SpaceX in addition to his role at X, said about a half hour into the conversation. “That’s my strong recommendation.”

The AfD has been classified as a “suspected extremist organization” by German domestic intelligence services. The party’s platform calls for rigid asylum laws, mass deportations, cuts to social and welfare support in Germany, and the reversal of restrictions on combustion engine vehicles.

Thierry Breton, former European Union commissioner for the internal market, said in a Jan. 4 post on X directed at Weidel: “As a European citizen concerned with the proper use of systemic platforms authorized to operate in the EU … especially to protect our democratic rules against illegal or misbehavior during election times, I believe it’s crucial to remind you” that a live discussion on X would give AfD and Weidel “a significant and valuable advantage over your competitors.”

While AfD has amassed about 20% of public support, according to reporting from broadcaster DW, the party is unlikely to form part of a coalition government, as most other parties have vowed not to work with it.

AfD previously protested the build-out of Tesla’s electric vehicle factory outside Berlin, in part because the factory would provide jobs to people who were not German citizens.

Musk’s earlier endorsements of AfD, including tweets complimenting the party and an editorial in a German newspaper, have enraged European government officials. Musk, the wealthiest person in the world, has also endorsed far-right and anti-establishment candidates and causes in the U.K.

Political leaders in France, Germany, Norway and the U.K. denounced his influence, NBC News previously reported, warning that Musk should not involve himself in their countries’ elections. 

Musk, who was one of President-elect Donald Trump’s top backers in November’s election, previously promoted Trump in a live-streamed discussion on X. Before that, he hosted a conversation with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who lost to Trump in the Republican primary.

Weidel during Thursday’s talk asked Musk about what Trump might do to bring Russia’s war in Ukraine to a conclusion, as the president-elect has suggested he could quickly do.

Musk demurred.

“To be clear this is up to President Trump, he is commander and chief, so it’s really up to him,” Musk said. “I don’t want to speak for him but you know I do think that there is a path to a resolution but it does require  strong leadership in the United States to get this done.”

Musk also weighed in on what he thought should be done in Gaza, which has been under attack from Israel since Hamas’ deadly incursion into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

“There’s no choice but to eliminate those who wish to eliminate the state of Israel, you know Hamas essentially,” Musk said. “Then, the second step is to fix the education so that Palestinians are not trained from when they are children to hate and want the death of Israel.”

“Then, the third thing, which is also very important, is to make the Palestinian areas prosperous.”

— CNBC’s Sophie Kiderlin contributed to this report.

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