Does the extradition of one crypto’s highest-profile players mean digital currencies are fundamentally unsound?
As a symbol of the year in crypto, the sight of Sam Bankman-Fried being hustled out of court in Nassau to a blacked-out SUV that would take him to an airfield, and an extradition flight to New York, takes some beating.
For the highest-profile player in cryptocurrency, 2022 has come to an abrupt and unforgiving end.
The man who received celebrities, prime ministers and presidents in shorts and a T-shirt is no longer the quirky nerd whose genius might unlock the potential to earn digital billions.
Instead, he’s the face of a massive fraud, accused of using customers’ money in the crypto exchange FTX to cover his bad bets and fund a Bahamian penthouse lifestyle while he preached a doctrine of altruism, in which his millions were earned in the service of the less fortunate.
Prosecutors revealed on Wednesday that his closest partners in the business, his co-founder and the some-time girlfriend who ran his crypto hedge fund, have turned, pleading guilty to wrongdoing and providing evidence against him.
SBF, as he is sometimes known, has insisted that none of this was intentional, that the siphoning of customer money to his private accounts is a function of incompetence rather than venality.
But with tens of millions of those dollars having been directed to political donations, Washington is as embarrassed as celebrities like Tom Brady – who beamed their endorsements in FTX’s lavish marketing campaigns – and the outlook is bleak.
Was it inevitable?
The question for the crypto industry, and the wider field of digital assets, is whether FTX’s collapse is an inevitable symptom of a sector that, in promising to magic value out of the electronic ether, has always been short on trust and credibility, and fertile ground for corruption.
Or is SBF, as his successor as chief executive of FTX alleges, simply an old-fashioned embezzler whose alleged crimes were sophisticated only in the way they were hidden in plain view? And if so, do digital assets have a future not forever mired in wild volatility of questionable assets, sudden collapses, and cons?
It had already been a chastening year with a series of summer collapses, of crypto lender Celsius and the Terra-Luna network, a scandal with its own fugitive from justice, Do Kwon, subject of an arrest warrant in South Korea, and an Interpol red notice.
Naomi Osaka appeared in an ad for FTX
These collapses wiped out billions, and a 75% slump in the value of the original cryptocurrency Bitcoin took a few more, much of it from retail investors whose willingness to exchange real money for digital ciphers is the fuel that keeps the crypto machine running.
Frances Coppola, an economist and noted crypto-sceptic, says these episodes are a consequence of the fundamentally unsound nature of the products, hastened by the wider economic climate in which cheap money is no longer available to top up the punchbowl.
“In the time crypto’s been in existence it has promised much and delivered very little, except a lot of bubbles which have then spectacularly burst,” she says. “We are now in our third major bursting of a crypto bubble in its short timeframe and it’s not at all clear when or if it will recover from this.
“I think FTX and the rest, Terra, Luna, Celsius, are a phenomenon of the crypto bubble that we’ve seen in the last two years. It’s not greatly surprising that it all came to grief when the Fed [US Federal Reserve] started to tighten monetary policy along with other central banks, and the withdrawal from the global economy of all the money that had been pumped in during the pandemic.”
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What went wrong for FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried?
Wild volatility part of Crypto’s appeal
The wild volatility that has been so costly this year appears to be a fundamental part of crypto’s appeal. Speculation and the ability to massively leverage bets by borrowing from exchanges feels like it has more in common with gambling than an investment, a retail version of the wild derivatives trading exposed to public view at horrible cost in 2008.
That has not stopped mainstream investors from taking a greater interest in crypto. Some of the biggest venture capital funds in America lost money in FTX, and banks are responding to demand from institutional investors unwilling to leave an estimated trillion dollars in new digital assets on the table.
Waqar Chaudry, of Standard Chartered bank, told me the next two years will be pivotal for mainstream engagement with digital finance: “We believe digital assets are here to stay for the long term. The primary job for a bank is to provide services to the clients where they need it.
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“From an institutional banking point of view, there is demand where large institutions are moving into cryptocurrencies. So where they are moving into that world they need service providers who have pedigree in financial services, and they are talking to us about what their plans are and what they look like for the next 12 to 24 months.”
The corporate world meanwhile is looking hard at the technology that lies beneath. These ‘distributed digital ledgers’, in which watertight cryptography and a public network of scrutineers replacing a clearing house or intermediary, have long appeared to have transformational potential.
For years blockchain has seemed like an answer awaiting the right question, but numerous routes are becoming clear.
The value of FTX’s FTT token collapsed. Pic: CoinMarketCap
The economy of things
Philip Skipper, Vodafone’s head of technology for the internet of things, says they are crucial to the next step in digital living, ‘the economy of things’.
“We already have devices that you can communicate with. The economy of things is when these devices communicate and transact with each other.
“So you can be driving down the road and your electric car could be communicating with a traffic light, you can be buying access to a congestion charge for the next 50 yards. It’s the ability of these devices to connect and transact together. That is the economy of things. Underpinning that is how you link all those plays together and that’s where blockchain has the key role.”
Global supply chains, so disrupted by COVID, could be transformed by the technology too. The combination of blockchain and stable digital currency opens the door to smart money, which could link payments to quality and delivery at each stage of a production process.
The flip side of this notion is state-controlled money which limits a citizen’s ability to spend as and when they choose. Imagine welfare payments paid only in approved digital coins that would only unlock for approved products.
The potential of these technologies for good and ill makes the role of regulators and government central, as well as the importance of public debate about what exactly we want from our money.
That absence of regulation is a common theme to the catastrophic failures in crypto this year. Ironically for a technology that promised to bypass mainstream institutions, they will be central to shaping the future of crypto and blockchain.
Rachel Reeves has said she is determined to “defy” forecasts that suggest she will face a multibillion-pound black hole in next month’s budget.
Writing in The Guardian, the chancellor argued the “foundations of Britain’s economy remain strong” – and rejected claims the country is in a permanent state of decline.
Reports have suggested the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity growth forecast by about 0.3 percentage points.
Rachel Reeves. PA file pic
That means the Treasury will take in less tax than expected over the coming years – and this could leave a gap of up to £40bn in the country’s finances.
Ms Reeves wrote she would not “pre-empt” these forecasts, and her job “is not to relitigate the past or let past mistakes determine our future”.
“I am determined that we don’t simply accept the forecasts, but we defy them, as we already have this year. To do so means taking necessary choices today, including at the budget next month,” the chancellor added.
She also pointed to five interest rate cuts, three trade deals with major economies and wages outpacing inflation as evidence Labour has made progress since the election.
Speculation is growing that Ms Reeves may break a key manifesto pledge by raising income tax or national insurance during the budget on 26 November.
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What tax rises and spending cuts could Reeves announce?
Start-ups warn the chancellor over budget tax bombshell
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Chancellor faces tough budget choices
Although her article didn’t address this, she admitted “our country and our economy continue to face challenges”.
Her opinion piece said: “The decisions I will take at the budget don’t come for free, and they are not easy – but they are the right, fair and necessary choices.”
Yesterday, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates reported that Ms Reeves is unlikely to raise the basic rates of income tax or national insurance, to avoid breaking a promise to protect “working people” in the budget.
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Tax hikes possible, Reeves tells Sky News
Sky News has also obtained an internal definition of “working people” used by the Treasury, which relates to Britons who earn less than £45,000 a year.
This, in theory, means those on higher salaries could be the ones to face a squeeze in the budget – with the Treasury stating that it does not comment on tax measures.
Read more: The taxes Reeves could raise
In other developments, some top economists have warned Ms Reeves that increasing income tax or reducing public spending is her only option for balancing the books.
Experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies have cautioned the chancellor against opting to hike alternative taxes instead, telling The Independent this would “cause unnecessary amounts of economic damage”.
Although such an approach would help the chancellor avoid breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge, it is feared a series of smaller changes would make the tax system “ever more complicated and less efficient”.
KitKats, Gaviscon, toothpaste, and even Freddo have all fallen victim to shrinkflation, consumer group Which? has found.
As families struggle with the cost of a trip to the supermarket, a survey of shoppers revealed how many products are getting smaller – while others are being downgraded with cheaper ingredients.
Among the examples are:
• Aquafresh complete care original toothpaste – from £1.30 for 100ml to £2 for 75ml at Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Ocado
• Gaviscon heartburn and indigestion liquid – from £14 for 600ml to £14 for 500ml at Sainsbury’s
• Sainsbury’s Scottish oats – from £1.25 for 1kg to £2.10 for 500g
• KitKat two-finger multipacks – from £3.60 for 21 bars to £5.50 for 18 bars at Ocado
• Quality Street tubs – from £6 for 600g to £7 for 550g at Morrisons
• Freddo multipacks – from £1.40 for five bars to £1.40 for four bars at Morrisons, Ocado and Tesco
Which? also received reports of popular treats missing key ingredients, as manufacturers seek to cut costs.
The amount of cocoa butter in white KitKats has fallen below 20%, meaning they can no longer actually be sold as white chocolate.
It comes after Penguin and Club bars lost their legal status as a chocolate biscuit, as they now contain more palm oil and shea oil than cocoa – as reported in the Sky News Money blog.
Which? retail editor Reena Sewraz called on supermarkets to be “more upfront” about price changes to help households “already under immense financial pressure” get better value.
While keeping track of the size and weight of products can be tricky, Which? has two top tips for detecting shrinkflation.
The first is to be wary of familiar products labelled as “new” – because the only thing that’s new may end up being the smaller size.
Meanwhile, the second is to pay attention to how much an item costs per 100g or 100ml, as this can be an easy way of finding out when prices change.
What have the companies said?
A spokeswoman for Mondelez International, which makes Cadbury products, said any change to product sizes are a “last resort”, but it’s facing “significantly higher input costs across our supply chain” – including for energy.
A Nestle spokesman said it was seeing “significant increases in the cost of coffee”, and some “adjustments” were occasionally needed “to maintain the same high quality and delicious taste that consumers know and love”.
“Retail pricing is always at the discretion of individual retailers,” they added.
A spokesman for the Food and Drink Federation also pointed to government policy, notably national insurance increases for employers and a new packaging tax.
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Is inflation reaching its peak?
Fresh food prices on the rise
The Which? report comes as latest figures showed fresh food costs 4.3% more than it did a year ago.
The increase in October, reported by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and market researchers NIQ, was up on the 4.1% year-on-year rise in September.
Overall food inflation was down slightly, though, to 3.7% from last month’s 4.2%.
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There has also been a slowdown in overall shop price inflation, which the BRC said was down to “fierce competition among retailers” ahead of Black Friday sales.
The annual shopping extravaganza will this year arrive in the same week as the chancellor’s budget, which is set for Wednesday 26 November.
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson called on Rachel Reeves to help “relieve some pressures” keeping prices high, with the national insurance rise in last year’s budget having “directly contributed to rising inflation”.
“Adding further taxes on retail businesses would inevitably keep inflation higher for longer,” Ms Dickinson warned.
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