As a symbol of the year in crypto, the sight of Sam Bankman-Fried being hustled out of court in Nassau to a blacked-out SUV that would take him to an airfield, and an extradition flight to New York, takes some beating.
For the highest-profile player in cryptocurrency, 2022 has come to an abrupt and unforgiving end.
The man who received celebrities, prime ministers and presidents in shorts and a T-shirt is no longer the quirky nerd whose genius might unlock the potential to earn digital billions.
Instead, he’s the face of a massive fraud, accused of using customers’ money in the crypto exchange FTX to cover his bad bets and fund a Bahamian penthouse lifestyle while he preached a doctrine of altruism, in which his millions were earned in the service of the less fortunate.
Prosecutors revealed on Wednesday that his closest partners in the business, his co-founder and the some-time girlfriend who ran his crypto hedge fund, have turned, pleading guilty to wrongdoing and providing evidence against him.
SBF, as he is sometimes known, has insisted that none of this was intentional, that the siphoning of customer money to his private accounts is a function of incompetence rather than venality.
But with tens of millions of those dollars having been directed to political donations, Washington is as embarrassed as celebrities like Tom Brady – who beamed their endorsements in FTX’s lavish marketing campaigns – and the outlook is bleak.
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Was it inevitable?
The question for the crypto industry, and the wider field of digital assets, is whether FTX’s collapse is an inevitable symptom of a sector that, in promising to magic value out of the electronic ether, has always been short on trust and credibility, and fertile ground for corruption.
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Or is SBF, as his successor as chief executive of FTX alleges, simply an old-fashioned embezzler whose alleged crimes were sophisticated only in the way they were hidden in plain view? And if so, do digital assets have a future not forever mired in wild volatility of questionable assets, sudden collapses, and cons?
It had already been a chastening year with a series of summer collapses, of crypto lender Celsius and the Terra-Luna network, a scandal with its own fugitive from justice, Do Kwon, subject of an arrest warrant in South Korea, and an Interpol red notice.
Image: Naomi Osaka appeared in an ad for FTX
These collapses wiped out billions, and a 75% slump in the value of the original cryptocurrency Bitcoin took a few more, much of it from retail investors whose willingness to exchange real money for digital ciphers is the fuel that keeps the crypto machine running.
Frances Coppola, an economist and noted crypto-sceptic, says these episodes are a consequence of the fundamentally unsound nature of the products, hastened by the wider economic climate in which cheap money is no longer available to top up the punchbowl.
“In the time crypto’s been in existence it has promised much and delivered very little, except a lot of bubbles which have then spectacularly burst,” she says. “We are now in our third major bursting of a crypto bubble in its short timeframe and it’s not at all clear when or if it will recover from this.
“I think FTX and the rest, Terra, Luna, Celsius, are a phenomenon of the crypto bubble that we’ve seen in the last two years. It’s not greatly surprising that it all came to grief when the Fed [US Federal Reserve] started to tighten monetary policy along with other central banks, and the withdrawal from the global economy of all the money that had been pumped in during the pandemic.”
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3:29
What went wrong for FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried?
Wild volatility part of Crypto’s appeal
The wild volatility that has been so costly this year appears to be a fundamental part of crypto’s appeal. Speculation and the ability to massively leverage bets by borrowing from exchanges feels like it has more in common with gambling than an investment, a retail version of the wild derivatives trading exposed to public view at horrible cost in 2008.
That has not stopped mainstream investors from taking a greater interest in crypto. Some of the biggest venture capital funds in America lost money in FTX, and banks are responding to demand from institutional investors unwilling to leave an estimated trillion dollars in new digital assets on the table.
Waqar Chaudry, of Standard Chartered bank, told me the next two years will be pivotal for mainstream engagement with digital finance: “We believe digital assets are here to stay for the long term. The primary job for a bank is to provide services to the clients where they need it.
“From an institutional banking point of view, there is demand where large institutions are moving into cryptocurrencies. So where they are moving into that world they need service providers who have pedigree in financial services, and they are talking to us about what their plans are and what they look like for the next 12 to 24 months.”
The corporate world meanwhile is looking hard at the technology that lies beneath. These ‘distributed digital ledgers’, in which watertight cryptography and a public network of scrutineers replacing a clearing house or intermediary, have long appeared to have transformational potential.
For years blockchain has seemed like an answer awaiting the right question, but numerous routes are becoming clear.
Image: The value of FTX’s FTT token collapsed. Pic: CoinMarketCap
The economy of things
Philip Skipper, Vodafone’s head of technology for the internet of things, says they are crucial to the next step in digital living, ‘the economy of things’.
“We already have devices that you can communicate with. The economy of things is when these devices communicate and transact with each other.
“So you can be driving down the road and your electric car could be communicating with a traffic light, you can be buying access to a congestion charge for the next 50 yards. It’s the ability of these devices to connect and transact together. That is the economy of things. Underpinning that is how you link all those plays together and that’s where blockchain has the key role.”
Global supply chains, so disrupted by COVID, could be transformed by the technology too. The combination of blockchain and stable digital currency opens the door to smart money, which could link payments to quality and delivery at each stage of a production process.
The flip side of this notion is state-controlled money which limits a citizen’s ability to spend as and when they choose. Imagine welfare payments paid only in approved digital coins that would only unlock for approved products.
The potential of these technologies for good and ill makes the role of regulators and government central, as well as the importance of public debate about what exactly we want from our money.
That absence of regulation is a common theme to the catastrophic failures in crypto this year. Ironically for a technology that promised to bypass mainstream institutions, they will be central to shaping the future of crypto and blockchain.
A profit measure called earnings per share was also better than expected at $1.30.
It matters as Nvidia has powered the artificial intelligence (AI) boom through its computer chips, which are key parts in AI chatbots such as ChatGPT.
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Nvidia has major tech companies as clients and acts as a good proxy for whether the tens of billions of dollars invested in AI is paying off.
Its chief executive, Jensen Huang, has been described as the Godfather of AI and watch parties were organised for those looking to follow the Wednesday evening announcement.
The company has been a massive beneficiary of the push to put money into AI, with its share price reaching stratospheric highs.
In October, it became the first worth $5trn (£3.83trn), about the size of the German economy, Europe’s largest, and double the UK’s benchmark stock index, the FTSE 100.
What’s been announced?
Revenue from data centres reached a record high of $51.2bn, more than £10bn higher than the three months previous.
The outlook is for continuing strong sales in the final three months of the financial year, as the company forecasts revenue will be roughly $65bn.
Demand for Nvidia products continues to surpass expectations, while the business is “still in the early innings” of AI transitions, its chief financial officer Colette Kress said.
Mr Huang said sales of its blackwell chips are “off the charts” and its cloud graphics processing chips (GPUs) are “sold out”.
Why it matters
Developing AI infrastructure, like the construction of data centres, has been a significant contributor to US economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP).
A faltering of AI expansion, therefore, impacts the US economy, the world’s largest, which in turn affects the UK and global economies.
Anxiety around the massive valuations tech companies have accrued, on the hope of AI revolutionising the world, is likely to be staved off by the results announcement.
A fall in these tech company valuations could have meant a drop in the value of pension pots or savings.
Just seven dominant tech companies, many of which have borrowed to invest in AI, make up more than a quarter of major US stock index, the S&P 500.
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Could the AI bubble burst?
In the last year alone, Nvidia’s share price has risen more than 230%.
Some, including US trader Michael Burry, famous for being played by Christian Bale in the Hollywood film The Big Short, have effectively bet that Nvidia’s share price would fall.
Addressing the topic of an AI bubble, Nvidia’s founder, Mr Huang, said, “From our vantage point, we see something very different”.
What next?
Regardless of the figures released on Wednesday evening, significant market moves were anticipated, given the attention paid to the results and the significance of the company.
Nvidia shares rose as much as 4% in after-hours trading.
The results also boosted the share price of its chip-making competitors like Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices.
The rate of inflation has eased to 3.6%, according to official figures that make for better reading for the economy and chancellor ahead of the budget.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the slowdown in the consumer prices index (CPI) measure, from the annual 3.8% rate recorded the previous month, was largely down to weaker housing effects, especially from energy bills.
ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Inflation eased in October, driven mainly by gas and electricity prices, which increased less than this time last year following changes in the Ofgem energy price cap.
“The costs of hotels was also a downward driver, with prices falling this month. These were only partially offset by rising food prices, following the dip seen in September.
“The annual cost of raw materials for businesses continued to increase, while factory gate prices also rose.”
The final part of that statement will be seen as a risk to expectations from economists that the peak pace for price increases is now behind the UK economy after a spike this year that has caused concern among interest rate-setters at the Bank of England.
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October’s data marked the first decline for the inflation rate since March.
It has been widely believed that the figure will ease gradually in the months ahead, helping to cushion household spending power from a slowdown in wage growth.
But key risks include shocks within the global economy and the impact of potential measures in the budget next week.
The chancellor’s first budget was blamed by business groups and economists for helping push up costs since April.
Then, firms passed on hikes to employer national insurance contributions and minimum pay levels imposed by Rachel Reeves.
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7:15
Reeves ‘played a bad hand poorly’
That has been reflected in many supermarket prices, for example, as they are among the biggest employers in the country. The ONS data showed that food inflation rose from 4.5% to 4.9%.
Other factors have contributed too such as high global demand for chicken and shrinking UK cattle herds pushing up beef costs.
Poor cocoa and coffee harvests have resulted in prices spiking too this year, with chocolate standing at record levels this summer.
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Chancellor reacts to increase in food prices
While food has been a main contributor to inflation, so too has energy, though bills have stabilised this year thanks largely to healthy global supplies of natural gas.
Petrol and diesel costs could become more of a problem for inflation, however.
The AA has blamed global factors for UK fuel prices nearing their highest level for seven months.
The motoring group said that but for the 5p cut in fuel duty under the last Conservative government, pump prices would have returned to pre-COVID levels.
There have been rumours that Ms Reeves could remove that reduction next Wednesday.
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Why is the economy flatlining?
She said of the ONS figures: “This fall in inflation is good news for households and businesses across the country, but I’m determined to do more to bring prices down.
“That’s why at the budget next week I will take the fair choices to deliver on the public’s priorities to cut NHS waiting lists, cut national debt and cut the cost of living.”
When asked if she recognised a contribution to rising inflation from her first budget, she responded: “Food prices fell last month and they have risen this month.
“But I do recognise that there’s more that we need to do to tackle the cost of living challenges. And that’s why one of the three priorities in my budget next week is to tackle the cost of living, as well as to cut NHS waiting lists and cut government debt.”
The Bank of England’s most recent forecasts see its 2% inflation target not being met until the early part of 2027.
Stubborn inflation in the UK has threatened the pace of interest rate cuts but policymakers are expected, by financial markets at least, to agree a further quarter point reduction next month on the back of weakness in economic growth and the labour market.
Official figures last week showed the UK’s unemployment rate rising to 5% from 4.8% and the pace of wage growth continuing its gradual decline.
Economic output during the third quarter of the year also slowed further to stand at just 0.1%.
The Bank’s rate-setting committee voted 5-4 earlier this month to maintain Bank rate at 4%.
That decision allowed for more data to come in – such as the employment and growth numbers – and, crucially, for the budget to have taken place, ahead of its next meeting.
Global stock markets are seeing sharp declines and bitcoin has lost this year’s gains as worries intensify that the AI (artificial intelligence) boom has become a bubble fit to burst.
A small tear has certainly appeared in US tech stocks over the past week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq closing below a key technical indicator for the first time since late April on Monday.
Key worries include not only high valuations but also vast investment spending in the AI space harming and delaying investor returns.
Sharp stock market falls were seen across large parts of Asia and Europe following the retreat on Wall Street.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed more than 3% while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1.7%.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 was down by just over 1% while Germany’s DAX and the CAC in Paris were 1.2% and 1.3% lower in early afternoon dealing.
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Nerves are jangling over tech as the market awaits financial results from Nvidia on Wednesday night.
Image: The stock market wobble began on Wall Street and many analysts say it’s a healthy move. Pic: AP
They are likely to be crucial in determining the path for shares ahead.
The world’s largest company by market value is the beating heart of Wall Street’s artificial intelligence boom and any sign of slowdowns, for both revenues and profits, will be catalysts for further sell-offs.
Fears have been growing for months that record values are overdone.
Stocks linked to AI suffered particularly on Monday, building on declines seen last week, and futures indicated more pain to come when trading begins in the US, though drops were expected to be limited.
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Could the AI bubble burst?
Financial analysts said baskets of top AI-linked stocks had now entered so-called correction territory, falling more than 10% in short order this month.
Others pointed to an impact on confidence in the crypto market.
Bitcoin, which hit a $125,000 spot rate level only last month, stood at $91,000 on Tuesday.
It had begun the year around the $94,000 level.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said: “This year was meant to be the year of the bitcoin bulls supported by a highly crypto-friendly administration in the White House and Trump’s ‘less is more’ approach towards regulation.
“However, fears of an AI bubble and concerns about the market’s heavy dependence on a handful of tech giants have caused investors to dial back their exposure to speculative assets such as bitcoin.
“There’s a general sense of nervousness that has captured the market mood lately and bitcoin appears to be in the firing line.”
Wider sentiment has also been harmed by weaker bets on the prospects for a further interest rate cut by the US central bank next month.
Many financial analysts described the stock market shifts as a healthy correction, given all the uncertainties which include the possibility of a US court ruling against Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs regime ahead.
Mike Gallagher, director of research at Continuum Economics, told Sky’s US partner CNBC that the market action implies equities could fall about 5% from recent highs – or “a bit more”.
“There’s some things coming over the horizon that make you want to take a bit of risk off the table,” he told the channel’s Squawk Box Europe show.
“So, part of it is just natural pocket taking, part of it is thinking, ‘well, is the macro story going to be perfect? No, it’s not.”
He concluded: “To get a major sell-off, you may need major bad news, and that we haven’t actually got to that point yet.”
In the hour after Wall Street opened, the tech company-heavy Nasdaq Composite had dropped nearly 1.8%.
The S&P 500 US index of companies relied on to be stable and profitable, lost more than 1% and the index of 30 major companies listed on US stock exchanges, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), dropped 1.3%.