Tesla CEO Elon Musk joined a twitter space today to speak about the recent moves in TSLA stock and defends his recent actions from Tesla investors who have called for him to stop wasting time on Twitter, which he recently purchased.
Today he finally went into a public twitter space to talk about these issues, including with Ross Gerber, the aforementioned investor he has been feuding with.
The main point of contention with Gerber has been regarding the source of TSLA’s recent price drop. Musk contends that Fed interest rates are the primary contributor, both because it drives capital flight from equities and into safer bonds as bond yields go up, and because it suppresses demand for consumer products that are often bought with debt, such as autos (or, perhaps, twitter itself, which Musk took on tens of billions in loans to buy).
Part of the difference could be related to Musk’s recent large sales of Tesla stock, having sold tens of billions over the course of the last year to fund his twitter acquisition (aka disaster, aka dumpster fire). Generally, insider stock sales send a signal to the market that insiders, particularly the CEO, may not have full confidence in the company’s performance, and add negative pressure to a stock price.
Musk’s sales have happened in a high-profile way and for inopportune reasons, as well. Tesla investors don’t seem to see the upside of these stock sales for the future of Tesla, even though Musk says it will help the EV company in the long term.
Today, Musk stated that he wouldn’t sell any more stock:
“I’m not selling any stock for, I dunno, a minimum of 18-24 months. You can count on me, no stock sales until 2025 or something. I need to sell some stock just to make sure there’s still some powder dry to account for a worst-case scenario… I won’t sell stock until probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances. Probably not the year after either.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Dec 22, twitter space
However, Musk has said this many times before, and has still sold Tesla stock. Despite routinely saying he would be the last person to sell TSLA stock for the last decade, Musk has sold large chunks of stock several times over the last year. So investors may be glad to hear that he is done selling, but they’ve heard that before.
Musk also stated “I’m somewhat paranoid having gone through two really intense recessions,” suggesting that his companies might want cash on hand to weather what he sees as an upcoming recession, or at least some sort of “macro drama.” Musk said, “if we do have another 2009 situation, the stock price of everything is gonna be lower.”
Given that Twitter is a private company wholly owned by him, and Musk’s wealth is largely concentrated in TSLA stock, we’re not sure what other major methods of fundraising are available to Musk to free up more “dry powder” other than selling more Tesla stock or taking on more debt.
On the contrary, Musk even talked about the possibility of a stock buyback. Despite his concern about a recession, he also stated that the stock price is currently low, and said his vote would be for a buyback. Though this statement was couched in the eventuality that we aren’t in another 2008-2009 recession situation, which Musk believes we might be going into.
While many have made note of Musk’s distractions with twitter, he stated that “there’s not an important Tesla meeting I’ve missed the entire time. I’m not totally missing in action” and asked “is there anything I could have done in the last two months that would have helped with Tesla execution? I literally cant think of anything.” But he also referred to twitter colorfully by stating “if you cross catnip with crack, that’s what twitter is” – which is not exactly the sort of statement a person would make about something they aren’t addicted to.
Another question was asked by Earl Banning, known as 28delayslater on twitter, a longtime investor and fan who referred to how Musk’s recent political statements have taken the shine off of Tesla for him and his family (including his children, one of whom is trans, a group that Musk’s tweets have recently negatively targeted). This is something we’ve seen in data, with Tesla losing popular support due to these divisive statements.
Musk said that he doesn’t hate trans people, and “doesn’t want to be a hater of anyone.” Banning attempted to ask a follow-up, but was cut off.
Electrek’s Take
Well, this was quite the spectacle. It was nice to see Musk back to focusing on Tesla for once, after so much nonsense related to twitter for so long.
But it sort of sounded like he was saying whatever anyone wanted to hear. On the one hand, he thinks there will be a recession, and on the other hand, he thinks Tesla could do buybacks. On the one hand, he wants companies to have dry powder ready, but on the other hand, he absolutely will not sell stock in order to free up cash (as he has stated before, and then still sold stock).
So with this recent history of conflicting statements, it’s hard to take any of them seriously. However, the market seems to have been comforted by Musk’s words, as the stock went up about two and a half percent in after hours trading, mostly after his statement that he won’t sell anymore stock.
But as for our answer to one pointed question he asked on the call: “is there anything I could have done in the last two months that would have helped with Tesla execution?”
Yes, there is something. As Gerber said, Tesla has been flagging lately because it has been running without the focus of its CEO. For Tesla to function correctly, it either needs a focused CEO who can aid it in execution (perhaps by stepping down from Twitter, as Musk promised, then reversed that promise), or at the very least a COO who can take the place of the CEO while the CEO is busy with their “catnip crossed with crack.”
SpaceX has this in COO Gwynne Shotwell, who has executed well for that company. Perhaps Tesla needs someone similar (potentially Tom Zhu, head of Tesla China?).
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Renewables increased their output by almost 10% and provided nearly a quarter of US electrical generation in 2024, according to newly released US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
Solar was still No 1
Solar remained the US’s fastest-growing source of electricity in 2024. Utility-scale and “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar combined increased by 26.9% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to the SUN DAY Campaign, which reviewed EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report data.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 32%, while small-scale solar increased by 15.3%. Together, solar was nearly 7% (6.91%) of total US electrical generation for the year.
In December alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar expanded by 42% compared to December 2023.
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Small-scale solar (systems <1 MW) accounted for 27.9% of all solar generation and provided 1.9% of the US electricity supply in 2024. In fact, small-scale solar PV generates over five times more electricity than utility-scale geothermal.
2024 renewables milestones
The electrical output of US wind farms in 2024 grew by 7.7% year-over-year. Wind remains the largest source of electrical generation among renewable energy sources, accounting for 10.3% of the US total.
Wind and solar combined provided more than 17.2% of US electrical generation during 2024. The mix of all renewables – wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, geothermal – provided 24.2% of total US electricity production in 2024 compared to 23.2% of electrical output a year earlier.
Between January and December, electrical generation by renewables grew by 9.6% compared to the same period the year before – nearly three times the growth rate of natural gas (3.3%) and over 10 times that of nuclear power (0.9%).
In December alone, electrical generation by renewables grew by 10.1% compared to December 2023.
Wind and solar together produced 15.9% more electricity than coal and came close to matching nuclear power’s share of total generation (17.2% vs. 17.8%).
The mix of renewables reinforced their position as the second largest source of electrical generation, behind only natural gas.
“Renewable energy sources now provide a quarter of the nation’s electricity,” said the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Consequently, the rash efforts of the Trump Administration to undermine wind, solar, and other renewables will have serious negative consequences for the nation’s electricity supply and the economy.”
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However, we suspected that this would not be “unsupervised self-driving’ in customer vehicles like Tesla has been promising since 2016, but an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for ride-hailing services, much like Waymo has been doing for years.
With the focus on Austin in June, Tesla stopped talking about California, which was announced to happen at the same time as Texas last year.
Now, Bloomberg reports that Tesla has applied for a ride-hailing permit in California:
The electric vehicle manufacturer applied late last year for what’s known as a transportation charter-party carrier permit from the California Public Utilities Commission, according to documents viewed by Bloomberg. That classification means Tesla would own and control the fleet of vehicles.
But this application is for a regular ride-hailing service, like Uber, albeit for an internal fleet rather than vehicles operated by customers.
Tesla has yet to apply for a permit to operate driverless vehicles:
In its communications with California officials, Tesla discussed driver’s license information and drug-testing coordination, suggesting the company intends to use human drivers, at least initially. Tesla is applying for the same type of permit used by Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s robotaxi business. While Tesla has approval to test autonomous vehicles with a safety driver in California, it doesn’t have, nor has applied for, a driverless testing or deployment permit from the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles, according to a spokesperson.
Musk claimed that he believes Tesla will be able to achieve “unsupervised self-driving” in California by “the end of the year”, but he has claimed that every year for the past decade.
This is just a step for Tesla to test ride-hailing services ahead of autonomy. A nothing burger, really, since ride-hailing has obviously been solved already by several companies, Lyft, Uber, Didi, etc.
What needs to be solved is autonomous driving.
As I have been saying for the last year, I am sure Tesla will be able to launch an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for a ride-hailing service in California later this year like it plans to do in Austin in June, but that’s nowhere near what Tesla promised since 2016.
It’s a moving of the goal post, and it’s basically just proving that Tesla is able to do something similar to Waymo – 5 years later.
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The feature is called “Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads” as Tesla seems more cautious about using the term “Full Self-Driving” in China, but it is a feature known for being in the FSD package everywhere else.
Tesla has been facing a lot of issues in releasing FSD features in China. The automaker has been limited in its neural net training due to restrictions about data coming in and out of the country, and it found it difficult to adapt to regulations regarding bus lanes and other China-specific road rules.
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CEO Elon Musk warned that FSD in China would be a problem during Tesla’s earnings call last month due to the different rules. He mentioned bus lanes as an example:
By the way, were about the biggest challenges in making FSD work in China is the bus lanes are very complicated. And there’s like literally like hours of the day that you’re allowed to be there and not be there. And then if you accidentally go in that bus lane at the wrong time, you get an automatic ticket instantly. So, it’s kind of a big deal, bus lanes in China.
The automated ticketing system is not just for bus lanes and Tesla owners are learning about it the hard way.
Tesla owners have been testing out the features in live streams on social media and some of them are reporting getting numerous tickets for using FSD.
For example, this Tesla driver received 7 tickets in the space of a single drive because the FSD drove in bike lanes and made illegal maneuvers:
Car News China tracked several live streams and customer feedback on Chinese social media, and the consensus appears to be that it’s “pretty good, but with lots of bugs”.
The drivers are particularly impressed with how “natural” FSD drives, but they also noted that it still
Where the system lacks is the understanding of local traffic rules (such as no use of shoulder/bike lanes on turns, similar to the bus lane rules that Elon talked about in the most recent earnings call) and the sporadic use of wrong lanes (e.g. going straight in a left or right turn only lane) or navigation showing the vehicle in one lane when in fact it’s in another or wrong perception of objects (red balloons as traffic lights). Many of the live streams counted the number of traffic violations from the vehicle and the number of points that would have been taken off or licenses suspended (12 points = suspension) as a result.
Chinese media websites are now getting flooded with Tesla vehicles running red traffic lights, failing to recognize green lights, and driving on restricted lanes, like the video above.
The report also highlights how Tesla is facing strong competition in ADAS in China, with competitors like Nio, Xpeng, BYD, and others launching competitive products, which is not necessarily the case in other markets for Tesla.
Electrek’s Take
I feel like this is likely going to result in bad PR for Tesla in China. You can’t have drivers losing their licenses because FSD doesn’t recognize bike lanes.
Now, of course, Tesla will say that the driver remains responsible, but I don’t know how good Tesla’s messaging is on that front in China.
It’s going to be an interesting story to track in the coming months.
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