Plug-in hybrids use more gas than estimated, dieselgate whistleblower says
Plug-in hybrids use far more gasoline in the real world than regulatory agencies account for, according to a new analysis of data by the International Council on Clean Transportation, the research group that broke the Volkswagen dieselgate scandal.
The ICCT analyzed data both from Fuelly, an app which helps drivers track their fuel efficiency, and from the California Bureau of Automotive Repair (BAR). It then compared this data to regulatory agency estimates and found that PHEVs are not driving on electric power nearly as often as the EPA had assumed they are.
This could have significant implications for the way plug-in hybrid cars are regulated since they seem to produce more emissions and use more gasoline in practice than previously thought.
The data showed that PHEVs spend 26-56% less time in all-electric drive mode (this is called the “utility factor”), and therefore consume 42-67% more fuel than EPA labeling suggests.
Further, the unbiased data from BAR looked worse than the self-reporting data from Fuelly:
Researchers think this is because self-reported MPG data will skew towards drivers who pay more attention to efficiency, and thus are more likely to drive in a more efficient manner and remember to plug in their cars. But the data from BAR doesn’t include this bias, so in reality, PHEV shortcomings probably skew on the high end of these percentage estimates.
The ICCT had even more drastic results in an earlier study in Europe. In that study, fuel usage and emissions for PHEVs were 3-5 times higher than WLTP estimates suggested. Part of this was due to company cars where a company would pay for fuel, but not electricity, and thus were never plugged in, but were purchased by the company in order to get PHEV incentives. But even for non-company cars, the disparity between WLTP and real-world estimates was even larger than in the US.
Research lead Aaron Isenstadt showed us a table of the best- and worst-performing PHEV models, and pointed out that, as expected, “range-extended” models (like the i3 and Volt) which focus on using the engine as a backup generator for an ample battery tended to have higher electric usage. Whereas PHEVs with vestigial batteries like the original Plug-in Prius, or where the target customer was less environmentally-minded like the Range Rover and Panamera, were barely ever plugged in.
| BestEDS | BAR data (MY19+, automatic collection) | Electric drive share | Fuelly data (MY11+, user-reported) | Electric drive share |
| 1st | 2019 Chevrolet Volt | 0.623 | 2014 BMW i3 REX | 0.900 |
| 2nd | 2019 Volvo S60 AWD | 0.548 | 2016 BMW I3 REX | 0.875 |
| 3rd | 2022 BMW 530e Sedan | 0.499 | 2017 BMW i3 REX | 0.864 |
| 4th | 2021 BMW 330e xDrive | 0.486 | 2015 BMW I3 REX | 0.824 |
| 5th | 2019 Volvo XC60 AWD | 0.442 | 2016 Cadillac ELR | 0.807 |
| WorstEDS | BAR data (MY19+, automatic collection) | Electric drive share | Fuelly data (MY11+, user-reported) | Electric drive share |
| 5th | 2020 BMW 530E | 0.116 | 2014 Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid | 0.115 |
| 4th | 2022 Volvo XC90 T8 AWD Recharge | 0.080 | 2013 Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid | 0.113 |
| 3rd | 2020 Land Rover Range Rover PHEV | 0.062 | 2014 Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid | 0.082 |
| 2nd | 2022 Hyundai Tucson Plug-in Hybrid | 0.054 | 2014 Honda Accord Plug-in Hybrid | 0.045 |
| 1st | 2022 Kia Niro Plug-in Hybrid | 0.051 | *** | 0.000 |
Isenstadt said that the only model he would consider a high-achiever is the BMW i3 REX. Other models fell far short of expected EPA numbers. The EPA generally expects PHEVs to use electric drive 80% of the time or more (though this scales up and down based on battery size), and only the i3 crossed the EPA’s bar.
The i3 was notable for its large (~100 mile) battery and small, optional engine (with a corresponding very small gas tank). This resulted in it being treated more like an electric car with occasional gas capability, as opposed to many of today’s PHEVs which operate in blended mode.
We also spoke with Stephanie Searle, the study’s project manager, about the results. She wanted to highlight just how large the disparity was between regulatory and real-world numbers – not just a few percent, but more than 50%.
Searle noted that the BAR numbers were the first time ICCT had used unbiased, non-self-reported numbers in its analysis, and the fact that they were worse than the self-reported numbers means that the problem is perhaps worse than previous research indicates. She considers the BAR numbers to be more robust, but also noted that even the self-reported numbers from Fuelly, where you would expect efficiency-conscious drivers to live, showed a massive disparity.
Policy recommendations
The ICCT hopes that its research will influence policy around PHEVs by providing regulators with more data about the actual carbon reductions (or relative lack thereof) achieve by PHEV deployment.
The ICCT issued five specific recommendations to the EPA:
- Adjust the regulatory utility factor downwards for PHEVs to reflect current real- world performance.
- Require in-use data reporting for specific PHEV models to receive a higher utility factor reflective of said in-use data
- Adopt minimum electric driving range requirements, similar to California’s range requirements for zero-emission vehicle crediting in its Advanced Clean Cars II regulation
- Adopt maximum engine power-to-weight limits
- Establish a higher utility factor corresponding to the purchase of PHEV by drivers with demonstrated home chargers or manufacturer assistance with charging access
It also recommended that manufacturers could incentivize regular charging by assisting with home charger installation and by actively reporting cost of driving to users, and that tax administrators could incentivize PHEV purchases by restricting tax credits to PHEV models which display high utility factors. The US government recently expanded EV tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, allowing even small-battery (>7kWh) PHEVs access to the full $7,500 credit, a contrast to ICCT’s recommendations.
Will EPA follow California?
Further, the EPA is currently considering new emissions rules for 2027 and later model year vehicles. It’s expected to announce them this coming spring.
Searle hoped that these coming rules would be heavily influenced by California’s recent “Advanced Clean Cars II” standard. When that standard was unveiled, we at Electrek said it could be better, but part of California’s reason for making easier rules was because it wanted to set a standard that could be applied to other states in the country where EV sales aren’t as high as in CA.
If the EPA decides to align its rules with California’s, as previously happened under President Obama, this could reduce light-duty transport emissions by about 75% nationwide compared to current levels, said Searle (light-duty emissions make up 57% of transport emissions). The ICCT recently posted a blog showing that targets roughly in line with California’s are necessary to meet President Biden’s goal to align US policy with the Paris Agreement.
The new California rules ban the sale of new gas cars after 2035, but allow up to 20% of new vehicles to be PHEVs. These PHEVs do need to meet minimum range requirements, in the hopes that cars with larger batteries will be more likely to be plugged in.
These findings show that even those California rules might overestimate the emissions reductions from PHEVs, and more consideration should be put into how to maximize the percentage of time people spend on electric drive, rather than using gasoline.
Do PHEVs matter?
All that said, this grousing over PHEVs may not matter much in the long run. ICCT says production costs are dropping faster for BEVs than PHEVs, which means all this may be a moot point in the future. Since PHEVs are basically two cars in one, falling battery prices may make BEVs an even clearer better choice for both buyers and manufacturers. PHEVs are currently rather popular in Europe, with similar market share as BEVs (partially due to the company car effect mentioned above), but have lagged far behind BEVs in the US, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to catch up.
But as long as we are in the current battery-constrained production scenario we are in, the ICCT’s new data will help regulators understand the relative carbon reduction potential of PHEVs as compared to BEVs, and that the benefit of PHEVs may be smaller than previously expected.
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Tesla has reportedly received 50,000 orders for the new Model Y with an updated design in about 24 hours, according to a new report in China.
Last week, Tesla unveiled the mid-cycle refresh of the Model Y in China and a select few markets supplied by Tesla’s factory in Shanghai.
Deliveries are expected to start in March. The new Model Y hasn’t launched in Europe or North America yet, but it is expected to in the coming months.
The update has received mixed reviews as the updated design is not as well received as the Model 3’s recent design refresh and the specs and feature upgrades are basically in line with the Model 3 refresh.
But Tesla has reportedly received a significant number of orders for the updated electric vehicles.
According to several reports from Chinese bloggers claiming to have information coming from Tesla salespeople (via Car News China), the automaker secured 50,000 Model Y orders on the first day of the design refresh unveiling.
It’s hard to assess how significant this is for Tesla. The automaker delivered about 480,000 Model Ys in China in 2024 – up about 5% year-over-year.
50,000 units would represent just over a month of orders in a single day, but the design refresh was anticipated for about a year. Therefore, there was a lot of pent-up demand for it as people waited for the update to order.
It’s also worth noting that one of the sources claimed that Tesla is guiding that new orders being placed now won’t get delivered until April or May, which was used as evidence supporting the number of orders.
However, Tesla’s Chinese Model Y configurator is still mentioning March deliveries for new orders being placed now:
That’s true for both versions of the new Model Y. Tesla has yet to launch the updated performance version the new electric SUV.
Electrek’s Take
I wouldn’t be really surprised if Tesla secured 50,000 orders for the new Model Y in China, but I would still take this report with a grain of salt. Tesla salespeople have extremely limited visibility into sales beyond their own locations, and the sources appear to be coming from them and are relayed by Chinese bloggers on social media.
That, combined with the fact that the configurator still mentions March deliveries, makes me have doubts.
With that said, 50,000 orders is also not an unbelievable number.
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The rugged new electric SUV will be here before you know it. Jeep is fast-tracking Recon EV production as it prepares for an upcoming launch. Here’s what to expect from Jeep’s new electric SUV inspired by the legendary Wrangler.
Just as Jeep’s first global electric SUV, the Wagoneer S, is arriving at US dealers, the brand is already preparing to introduce another EV.
The Recon was revealed in 2022 as part of Jeep’s new strategy to become “the leading electrified SUV brand” in North America and Europe. Although Jeep launched the Avenger in Europe in early 2023, the Wagoneer S and Recon will be the brand’s first EV models to roll out globally.
The Recon will be Jeep’s first true off-road electric SUV. It’s built from the “ground up to be 100% Jeep 4×4.”Jeep said the new EV is for “those who love to explore extreme adventures in near silence.”
Jeep maker Stellantis said the Recon is “inspired by the legendary Wrangler.” Like the iconic off-roader, it will feature options like removable windows and doors.
With an expected launch just around the corner, Jeep (Stellantis) is reportedly fast-tracking Recon EV production.
When is Jeep launching the Recon EV?
According to MoparInsiders, a source at Stellantis’ assembly plant in Mexico claims production for the new Jeep Recon EV is set for February 24, 2025.
That’s well ahead of expected. After recently introducing the Wagoneer S and Dodge Charger Daytona to the market, Stellantis aims for a smooth launch with the new Jeep Recon EV.
Ahead of its official debut, prototypes of the rugged electric SUV have been spotted in public testing several times. A Recon EV was caught in Michigan with almost no camouflage by the folks at JeepReconForum last month. Inside, a display screen showed a range of 147 miles at 66% charge.
Although that suggests a range of around 223 miles, the production model is expected to be closer to 300 miles. Like the Wagoneer S, which features over 300 miles of driving range, the Recon EV will also be based on Stellantis’ STLA Large platform.
Jeep’s off-road electric SUV will be equipped with its signature Selec-Terrain system, which includes Rock, Mud, and other modes. It will also include standard four-wheel drive for added off-road capabilities. The Recon is expected to pack between 450 to 600 hp with dual EDMs.
According to the report, the Jeep Recon EV will launch in three trims: Willys, Overland, and an even more rugged Moab model.
We caught a glimpse of the Moab trim in 2023 after images leaked out of a dealer event. Over the past few months, the Recon EV has been spotted in public with less and less camouflage.
As it gets closer to production, Jeep’s upcoming electric SUV looks more like a Ford Bronco with a rugged exterior design.
Prices and official specs will be revealed closer to launch, but the Jeep Recon EV is expected to start at around $60,000. More expensive trims, like the Moab, could cost about $80,000. Stellantis will launch the Recon this year in the US and other global markets like Europe, The Middle East, and Asia.
What do you think of Jeep’s Wrangler-inspired Recon? Would you buy one for around $60,000? Drop us a comment below and let us know.
Source: MoparInsiders
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The world’s largest EV maker is making a big statement overseas. In a historic win, BYD officially outsold Toyota in EV sales on its own home turf for the first time last year.
BYD EV sales in Japan topped Toyota in 2024
After squeezing legacy automakers out of China with its low-cost electric cars, BYD is making a strong push into overseas markets.
BYD introduced its first electric vehicle (EV) in Japan in early 2023, the Atto 3. Starting at around $30,000, this SUV competes with popular domestic cars like the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V. It also rivals other EVs on the market, like the Toyota bZ4X and Nissan Ariya.
In its first full sales year, BYD has already outsold Toyota in EV sales in Japan. This accomplishment is even more impressive since Toyota has historically dominated sales in its home market.
According to the Japan Automobile Dealer Association (via CarNewsChina), BYD sold 2,223 EVs in 2024. In comparison, Toyota sold just 2,038 electric cars in its home market last year.
BYD’s EV sales were up 54% compared to 2023, while Toyota’s slipped 30% year over year (YOY). Since launching in 2023, BYD has introduced several top-selling models, including the Dolphin hatchback and Seal sedan.
Starting at just 2.99 million yen ($19,000), the Dolphin competes with top-selling domestic cars like the Toyota Prius and Nissan LEAF.
After launching the Seal last June, widely viewed as its answer to the Tesla Model 3, BYD’s electric sedan was already the top-selling imported EV in Japan by August. BYD’s Seal starts at 5.28 million yen, or around $33,500.
BYD is turning up the pressure in 2025 with plans to launch the Sealion 07 in Japan, its new smart mid-size electric SUV.
Japan’s total EV sales fell 33% to just below 60,000 in 2024, its first YOY decline in four years. Nissan led the market with a roughly 50% share despite LEAF sales slipping nearly 50% (30,749) from 2023. Although Toyota bZ4X sales were up 10%, only 1,012 models were sold in 2024. Toyota’s electric SUV starts at 5.5 million yen ($35,000).
Electrek’s Take
After losing significant market share in China, a critical market for Japanese automakers, BYD is now taking their home market by storm.
Although it’s still a small number, BYD’s growing presence in Japan is impressive. Japan has been a challenging market for foreign brands to compete in. Outside of luxury automakers like Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and BWM, domestic brands have historically dominated auto sales in Japan.
Toyota accounted for over a third of the market alone last year. After topping Nissan and Honda for the first time in global vehicle sales last year, BYD is laying the groundwork for more growth in 2025.
The Chinese EV leader is expanding with new models launching in Europe, Southeast Asia, Central and South America, and more. Will BYD eventually top Toyota in global sales? As the industry shifts to EVs, BYD is quickly gaining momentum while Toyota lags in key markets.
Source: CarNewsChina, JAMA
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