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The UK economy contracted by more than first estimated in the third quarter of this year.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the value of all the goods and services produced in the country, fell by a revised 0.3% against the 0.2% decline initially estimated from July to September, the Office for National Statistics said.

The official definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. It would be happen should the economy also contract in the fourth quarter of this year.

The manufacturing and construction sectors performed worse than originally thought.

Manufacturing activity contracted 2.8%, worse than the 2.3% contraction previously announced, while construction activity actually shrank 0.2%, less than the 0.6% growth that had been recorded in November.

Electricity generation too was described as “notably weaker” by the director of economic statistics at the ONS.

Household incomes continued to fall, though the rate of decline slowed compared to the first two quarters of 2022 and household spending fell for the first time since the final spring lockdown of 2021.

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The amount of households’ disposable income fell by 0.5% in the quarter, the fourth consecutive drop.

Household spending fell by a revised 1.1% in the quarter as declines in tourism, transport, household goods and services, and food and drink spending were seen.

A slowing in real consumption expenditure was seen over the past year including in restaurants and hotels, and recreation and culture as a result of that reduced disposable income and the cost of living crisis, fueled by high inflation.

Many believe the UK economy to already be in recession. Groups such as the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) have forecast the economy to contract 0.4% next year.

But the first month of the final quarter of this year showed growth. Growth of 0.5% was recorded in October, ONS figures showed. It was a stronger performance than expected by economists and was explained by the number of working days returning to normal rather than any real surge in output.

The economy is still expected to be confirmed as entering a recession at the end of the year as the quarter as a whole is forecast to have experienced negative growth.

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British taxpayers’ £10.2bn loss on bailout of RBS

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British taxpayers' £10.2bn loss on bailout of RBS

British taxpayers are set to swallow a loss of just over £10bn on the 2008 rescue of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) as the government prepares to confirm that it has offloaded its last-remaining shares in the lender as soon as next week.

Sky News can reveal the ultimate cost to the UK of saving RBS – now NatWest Group – from insolvency is expected to come in at about £10.2bn once the proceeds of share sales, dividends and fees associated with the stake are aggregated.

The final bill will draw a line under one of the most notorious bank bailouts ever orchestrated, and comes nearly 17 years after the then chancellor, Lord Darling, conducted what RBS’s boss at the time, Fred Goodwin, labelled “a drive-by shooting”.

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Insiders believe a statement confirming the final shares have been sold could come in the latter part of next week, although there is a chance that timetable could be extended by a number of days.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is likely to make a statement about the milestone, although insiders say the Treasury and the bank are keen to simply mark the occasion by thanking British taxpayers for their protracted support.

A stock exchange filing disclosing that taxpayers’ stake had fallen below 1% was made last week, down from over 80% in the years after the £45.5bn bailout.

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The stake now stands at 0.26%, meaning the final shares could be offloaded as early as the middle of next week, depending upon demand.

Total proceeds from a government trading plan launched in 2021 to drip-feed NatWest stock into the market have so far reached £12.8bn.

Based on the bank’s current share price, the remaining shares should fetch in the region of £400m, taking the figure to £13.2bn.

In addition, institutional share sales and direct buybacks by NatWest of government-held stock have yielded a further £11.5bn.

Dividend payments to the Treasury during its ownership have totalled £4.9bn, while fees and other payments have generated another £5.6bn.

In aggregate, that means total proceeds from NatWest since 2008 are expected to hit £35.3bn.

Under Rick Haythornthwaite and Paul Thwaite, now the bank’s chairman and chief executive respectively, NatWest is now focused on driving growth across its business.

It recently tabled an £11bn bid to buy Santander UK, according to the Financial Times, although no talks are ongoing.

Mr Thwaite replaced Dame Alison Rose, who left amid the crisis sparked by the debanking scandal involving Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader.

Sky News recently revealed that the bank and Mr Farage had reached an undisclosed settlement.

During the first five years of NatWest’s period in majority state ownership, the bank was run by Sir Stephen Hester, now the chairman of easyJet.

Sir Stephen stepped down amid tensions with the then chancellor, George Osborne, about how RBS – as it then was – should be run.

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Lloyds Banking Group was also in partial state ownership for years, although taxpayers reaped a net gain of about £900m from that period.

Other lenders nationalised during the crisis included Bradford & Bingley, the bulk of which was sold to Santander UK, and Northern Rock, part of which was sold to Virgin Money – which in turn has been acquired by Nationwide.

NatWest declined to comment on Friday, while the Treasury has been contacted for comment.

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Energy price cap: Typical yearly energy bill to fall by £129 from July, Ofgem announces

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Energy price cap: Typical yearly energy bill to fall by £129 from July, Ofgem announces

Households on the energy price cap will see a 7% reduction in their average annual payments from 1 July, the industry regulator has announced while urging households to seek out the “better deals out there”.

The default cap – which is reviewed every three months – will see a typical household using gas and electricity and paying by Direct Debit stump up an average annual £1,720, Ofgem said.

That is down from the current April-June figure of £1,849 and reflects a reduction in wholesale gas prices.

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The lower cap, however, will be £152 higher than the same three-month period last year.

It does not affect the millions of households to have taken a time-limited fixed deal.

Nevertheless, it represents some relief for families grappling with the cost of living aftershock that saw many essential bills rise by well above the rate of inflation last month.

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Cost of living impacts families

Ofgem also confirmed further bill savings through a £19 average cut, from July, in standing charges for households paying by both direct debit and prepayment, following an operating cost and debt allowances review.

The price cap does not limit total bills because householders still pay for the amount of energy they consume.

The watchdog’s announcements were made just days after fresh forecasts suggested that bills linked to the cap could come down further from both October and January, given recent wholesale market price trends.

Industry data specialist Cornwall Insight estimated on Friday that the price cap was currently on course to rise only slightly in October – by less than £1 a month.

Wholesale gas costs last winter had been relatively stable until a cold snap hit much of Europe in January and early February, driving up demand at a time of weaker stocks.

Other risk factors ahead include extended EU gas storage rules and global conflicts, not least the continuing Russia-Ukraine war that sparked the 2022 energy price spike and cost of living crisis in the first place.

Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “A fall in the price cap will be welcome news for consumers, and reflects a reduction in the international price of wholesale gas. However, we’re acutely aware that prices remain high, and some continue to struggle with the cost of energy.

“The first thing I want to remind people is that you don’t have to pay the price cap – there are better deals out there, so it’s important to shop around, and talk to your existing supplier about the best deal they can offer you. And changing your payment method to direct debit or smart pay as you go can save you up to £136.”

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Ofgem said that a minority of homes, 35%, were on a fixed rate deal.

Price comparison sites lined up after the price cap announcement to urge households still on the default tariff to investigate a switch.

Tom Lyon, director at Compare the Market said: “If anyone is worried about potentially higher energy bills later this year, they could consider locking in a fixed rate deal now.

“Fixed rate deals also protect you from price hikes if the oil and gas markets are volatile. Beyond your energy bills, it’s important to search and compare other household bills, such as your car insurance, credit cards, or broadband, to see if you can make savings.”

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Telegraph sale ‘agreed in principle’ after two-year ownership impasse

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Telegraph sale 'agreed in principle' after two-year ownership impasse

A £500m deal to end the two-year ownership impasse at the Daily Telegraph has been agreed “in principle”, it has been announced.

A consortium led by US firm Redbird Capital was set to take control of Telegraph Media Group (TMG), with state-backed Abu Dhabi investment vehicle IMI among the investors.

The pair’s original joint venture, known as RedBird IMI, had originally agreed to buy the Telegraph titles in 2023.

But prospects for a deal were held up by the previous Conservative government’s subsequent ban on foreign state ownership of UK newspapers.

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The row centred on the involvement of IMI’s owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who is the owner of Manchester City FC but also the vice president of the United Arab Emirates.

The ban was based on fears around editorial independence.

However, the rules were relaxed earlier this month by the current government, which said a foreign state-controlled holding of up to 15% was acceptable.

It is understood that UK-based media investors are among the proposed owners within the consortium.

Sky News reported on Monday that the Daily Mail’s owner had been in talks over involvement.

Undated handout photo issued by the Daily Mail and General Trust of their Chairman Lord Rothermere issued by PA 11/2/2016
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Daily Mail owner Lord Rothermere

The Telegraph newspaper itself reported that regulatory hurdles remained – a factor that could yet scupper completion of the deal.

Anna Jones, TMG chief executive, said: “Telegraph Media Group is an award-winning news media organisation, with exceptional journalism at its heart, supported by leading commercial expertise, a commitment to innovation and a laser focus on data to drive strategy.

“RedBird Capital Partners have exciting growth plans that build on our success – and will unlock our full potential across the breadth of our business.”

RedBird, whose other UK interests include a 10% stake in the US group behind Liverpool FC, said its growth strategy would include “capital investment in digital operations, subscriptions and journalism”.

Its statement continued: “RedBird will build on the strong financial foundations established by the current management team and will work with them to grow the brand internationally, with a focus on the United States where RedBird has a strong strategic presence across news, media and sports.

“Together, RedBird and TMG senior leadership will work to develop new content verticals in areas such as travel and events to maximise the commercial opportunities from a growing international and mass affluent subscriber base.”

Redbird founder Gerry Cardinale added: “This transaction marks the start of a new era for The Telegraph as we look to grow the brand in the UK and internationally, invest in its technology and expand its subscriber base.

“We believe that the UK is a great place to invest, and this acquisition is an important part of RedBird’s growing portfolio of media and entertainment companies in the UK.”

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