Biggest questions ahead of the 2023 World Junior Championship
The IIHF World Junior Championship has become ubiquitous — in hockey circles at least — with the Christmas holiday season. And the tournament returns this year to its usual place of honor.
That’s after the 2022 championship was shuttered in December 2021 amid a spike of COVID-19 cases within the Edmonton “bubble,” which was serving as the tournament’s venue. The event was ultimately restaged there in August, with Team Canada beating Team Finland 3-2 in overtime to claim gold.
So, if you’re feeling some déjà vu — “wait, didn’t they just crown a World Junior champion?” — you’re not wrong; Canada hasn’t had long to lord its victory over others. Them’s the breaks.
Because Canada — along with nine other nations — is back to battling for another WJC top prize. Pre-tournament action was underway earlier this week and gives way to preliminary round games starting Monday.
The 10 participating teams exist in two groups at two different locations: Group A features Canada, Sweden, Czechia, Germany and Austria playing at Scotiabank Center in Halifax, Nova Scotia, while Group B has the United States, Finland, Switzerland, Slovakia and Latvia at Avenir Center in Moncton, New Brunswick.
Organizers didn’t intend for Canadian cities to host the tournament again so soon after Edmonton’s back-to-back turn. In 2018, the IIHF announced Novosibirsk, Russia (for Group A), and Omsk, Russia (for Group B), would share duties for 2023. But those plans changed in February because of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the IIHF condemned by not only stripping Russia of its hosting rights but suspending teams from Russia and Belarus from international hockey indefinitely.
And so, the World Juniors return to Canada for a third consecutive year. Once the playing field has been whittled down in separate locations, the top four teams from each group move onto the quarterfinals, starting Jan. 2. The semifinals follow on Jan. 4, and the bronze and gold medal games pop up on Jan. 5. The bottom-ranked teams from each group will play a best-of-three series in relegation.
Before all that fun begins, let’s go over major storylines to monitor and highlight key players to keep an eye on. If history has taught us anything, there’s always something unexpected ahead when the game’s best young talent squares off.
Can Adam Fantilli outshine Connor Bedard?
There are no guarantees when it comes to the NHL draft rankings and results. Just ask Shane Wright.
This time last year, there was zero question — or so it seemed — that Wright would be the No. 1 overall pick in July. Instead, Montreal went way off script by selecting Juraj Slafkovsky in the top spot and Wright fell to Seattle at No. 4.
Now, it’s Canada’s Connor Bedard who’s on track to be taken first in June. His teammate Adam Fantilli would like to be the Slafkovsky-like spoiler.
But it won’t be easy.
Bedard has an impeccable résumé. In 2020, he became just the seventh player (after the likes of Connor McDavid, John Tavares and Aaron Ekblad) to be granted “exceptional status” by Hockey Canada to appear in the Western Hockey League at just 15 years old. The pandemic interrupted Bedard’s debut campaign with the WHL’s Regina Pats, but the center finished 2021-22 with 100 points in 62 games. He leads the WHL this season with 64 points in 28 games.
Bedard, 17, is more than just a scoring threat, though. The North Vancouver, British Columbia, native is also an enviable playmaker and silky skater, possessing an incomparably wicked shot and mind for the game that moves so quick, he’s constantly one step ahead on the ice. He could be the total package.
Fantilli forged a different path than Bedard through his junior career. The Toronto-area product spent two seasons with the USHL’s Chicago Steel from 2020 to 2022, where he produced 110 points in 103 games. Fantilli graduated from there to the University of Michigan, and is midway through a successful freshman campaign (26 points in 16 games).
So, where might Fantilli have an edge over Bedard? In size, for one. The 18-year-old comes in at 6-foot-2 to Bedard’s 5-foot-10. Fantilli has potential as a power forward who’s tenacious on the forecheck and can outduel opponents in front of the net. He’s fast and skilled and could be an eventual No. 1 center for an NHL team.
Scouts will see Fantilli and Bedard sharing a sheet for the next few weeks. It’s an opportunity for both players to showcase the best they have to offer. Could one tournament make or break a franchise-altering decision? Likely not. But Team Canada’s stars will draw a spotlight regardless. What they do with that attention? We’ll be watching to find out.
Can Team USA get back on top?
Team USA entered the 2022 tournament as reigning gold medal winners following a triumph over Canada the previous winter. They wound up leaving Edmonton (Part II) with a disappointing fifth-place finish. Two years ago, the USA came in sixth.
Overall, the Americans have enjoyed ample success at past World Juniors though, capturing four gold, one silver and three bronze medals since 2010. And they’ve already gone 2-0 in pre-tournament action to date.
If Team USA wants to add more hardware, it will need continued performances from its veteran skaters.
Enter Luke Hughes.
Team USA’s captain and defensive scoring leader had six points in five games at the 2022 WJC and has put together a nice season so far at Michigan (18 points in 20 games). The 19-year-old — brother to NHLers Jack Hughes and Quinn Hughes — will be looked to for leadership on and off the ice, to anchor the American blue line and to bolster special team units. Hughes is a terrific skater who was impressive in pre-tournament action scoring a game-opening goal for the U.S. He’ll likely be at the forefront of any American success to come.
Then there’s the forward group, headed by Logan Cooley and Jimmy Snuggerud. Cooley was just drafted third overall by Arizona in July and wields a sharp two-way game and blistering wrist shot. Getting some experience during his freshman season at the University of Minnesota (25 points in 19 games) should only have helped Cooley mature and make him reliable and dangerous in every situation.
Snuggerud is Cooley’s teammate at Minnesota (second in NCAA scoring, with 27 points in 20 games thus far). While this is his WJC debut, Snuggerud appears unfazed by a big stage. He was strong in the early games, boasting a size (6-foot-2) and skill that can complement anyone he’s playing with.
Cutter Gauthier — already on Team USA’s top line with Cooley and Snuggerud — is another player to watch. Ditto for Sean Behrens on the back end and Kenny Connors in the bottom six rotation. What should set Team USA apart is its depth. On paper — and by the looks of those two games in the books — there’s potential for this to be a multifaceted foe any opponent would fear.
If the Americans can avoid hurting themselves via unforced errors and careless penalties, and there’s solid goaltending ahead from Kaidan Mbereko, especially, Team USA has to like its chances of being in the top-three mix again in January.
Can a certain Swede raise his stock?
You know Bedard. And Fantilli. And how they are likely to be the top two prospects in this year’s draft (as of now).
Now say hello to Leo Carlsson.
The Swedish forward is a projected top-five choice in 2023 who could push his way up a few draft boards with a successful World Juniors showing. What could that look like for the 17-year-old? It starts from the foundation he’s already built.
Carlsson’s been honing his skills the past two years with Orebro HK of the Swedish Hockey League, facing high-end competition that’s helped rapidly mature his game. The center has consistently produced points this season — 14 in 25 tilts to date — but Carlsson’s impact goes beyond scoring goals. He’s a play-driving forward, is good in transition and gets to the net and creates for linemates. An October video of Carlsson deftly stickhandling through a crowd quickly turned heads and showcased what sets him apart from other skaters his age.
Another defining Carlsson quality is his preternatural calm that leads to confidence. The teenager appears unaffected by added pressure, which bodes well for Carlsson’s potential to pierce the NHL ranks sooner than later once he is drafted.
Sweden took home bronze at last season’s WJC and earned five other medals — including one gold and three silver — since 2012. It is a motivated bunch again this year, and it’s the ultimate opportunity for Carlsson to make his case as a top-three selection come June.
It’s worth noting that another player gunning for similar consideration won’t be on display the next couple weeks — at least not in this tournament. Matvei Michkov would be highlighting a roster for Team Russia if there was one. Some have already anointed the 18-year-old forward a future face of Russian hockey. But instead of representing his country right now in Canada, Michkov has inked a deal to suit up for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL through 2025-26.
Michkov’s draft potential is complicated. Given the talent and high hockey IQ Michkov flaunts, NHL clubs will still be interested in securing his rights for down the line — Kirill Kaprizov was drafted in 2015, but didn’t make his NHL debut until the 2020-21 season. But will Michkov come off the board before or after Carlsson? And if the Swedish standout does enough at World Juniors, can he gain the inside track on Michkov? Oh, the drama.
Can an underdog contender emerge?
Now, “underdog” is a relative term here, used mostly to describe “not Canada or the United States.”
We already know those North American squads are expected to excel and are routinely considered the ones to beat. So, who might be up to the task?
Finland
Only Canada, the U.S. and Finland have won gold at the past 10 World Juniors. And Finland was one overtime marker away from topping Canada on the podium in August. Months later, Finland is primed to make another strong push in the tournament.
Finland’s team philosophy works from the defense out, so Aleksi Heimosalmi and Otto Salin should be setting a tone on the blue line that extends everywhere else. Even though skaters like Joakim Kemell and Niko Huuhtanen can score (and the Finns are hopeful Brad Lambert starts showing up on the scoresheet, too), defense is Finland’s first priority. If it can stick to its script, Finland has a good chance of getting a medal.
Czechia
The plucky group finished fourth in last season’s tournament, a wild ride that included losing to Latvia and then eliminating the undefeated Americans. It was Tomas Suchanek’s incredible performance in net that delivered the latter outcome, and Suchanek has returned to backstop Czechia. He might not be an elite netminder, but Suchanek works hard and plays behind a defense led by David Jiricek. The Columbus Blue Jackets‘ prospect has had a terrific season in the AHL, averaging a point per game and is supported by Tomas Hamara and Stanislav Svozil.
Up front, it’s Buffalo Sabres‘ prospect Jiri Kulich — who has 16 points in 24 AHL games this season — and New York Rangers‘ selection Jaroslav Chmelar — a standout freshman at Providence College — challenging opponents. All in all, Czechia’s got real potential to surprise.
Sweden
Recently, Sweden has failed to turn excellent preliminary round performances into gold-medal game appearances; it hasn’t been to that stage since 2018. The Swedes’ mission to return starts with the previously mentioned Carlsson and extends to several key players showing up.
Goaltender Carl Lindblom takes over for Jesper Wallstedt, and there’s high hopes for what the Golden Knights’ prospect can bring given the great season he’s having in the Swedish professional league, HockeyAllsvenskan. Sweden’s biggest weakness might be its lack of top-tier defensemen, so the forward group will be relied on even more to drive Sweden’s success. It has Carlsson there, along with Filip Bystedt (a first-round choice by San Jose in 2022) and Fabian Lysell (a 2021 first-round choice by Boston).
The question mark is Vancouver prospect Jonathan Lekkerimäki, who hasn’t produced a point in the SHL since November, but has game-changing potential when he’s going. He’ll have something to prove at this tournament and that could be a huge boost for Sweden.
Can Austria sidestep relegation?
What is relegation? Glad you asked!
At the end of the WJC’s round-robin, the two last-placed teams will play a best-of-three series. Whichever team wins will be allowed back at next year’s tournament; the loser is relegated to Division 1 Group A.
How does Austria avoid this fate? Another good question!
Austria has injected some fun into the WJC since reaching top-tier status in 2021. That hasn’t resulted in further success. The IIHF removed relegation the past two seasons, so Austria didn’t have to worry about slipping back there (and given Austria was 0-4 and outscored 28-1 in no-relegation 2020, it truly dodged a bullet). But there’s no such luck this time around.
Unfortunately, Austria won’t have its biggest name in Marco Kasper. The Detroit Red Wings prospect opted to continue working on his game with the SHL’s Rogle BK. Bummer for Austria. Also not around is goaltender Sebastian Wraneschitz, who made 119 saves in two games during the 2021 tournament that might have actually resulted in a win if he’d gotten any goal support.
There’s still hope for Austria, though. Forward Vinzenz Rohrer has been lighting up the OHL with 32 points in 26 games for the Ottawa 67’s, and 2023 draft-eligible Ian Scherzer can build off a strong showing in last summer’s tournament with another two-way performance here. On the back end, keep your eyes peeled for David Reinbacher. He had two assists through four games at the last WJC, and has collected 14 points in 28 games with the Swiss league’s Kloten HC this season. A dual threat like Reinbacher immediately improves his country’s odds.
It’ll be tough, though. Austria has Sweden, Czechia and Canada to face. It’s Austria’s final game against Germany that could tell the tale. If Austria hasn’t earned any points and neither has Germany, there’s a chance Austria doesn’t slide into a relegation matchup that likely pits it against Latvia. Stars will need to align for Austria, but otherworldly showings from Scherzer, Reinbacher and Rohrer could help get them there.
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Kiley McDaniel
The 2025 MLB draft begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, so it is time for one final update as teams lock in their Day 1 boards.
The drama starts right at the top this year, as the Washington Nationals have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 pick a week after firing their general manager.
In a year without a slam-dunk top player, Oklahoma high school star Ethan Holliday (yes, the son of former major leaguer Matt) and a group of college left-handers (LSU’s Kade Anderson, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle and Florida State’s Jamie Arnold) rank among the top prospects in the class.
Which direction will the Nationals go — and how will the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?
Since this is a last-minute update on what teams could do Sunday night, my writeups here are focused on what has changed since the previous edition. You can find a more detailed look at each team’s strategy in my mock draft 3.0. And remember, this is the order in which I think the players will come off the board, while my draft rankings are the order in which I’d pick the players.
Draft tracker: Results, analysis for every Day 1 pick
More coverage: Mock draft 3.0 | Big question for all 30 teams
Watch: Sunday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
1. Washington Nationals
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1
There have been a lot of rumors flying around over the past few days about what is happening in the wake of the firing of GM Mike Rizzo.
The industry feeling is that what has changed is 1) Anderson is a little more likely to be the pick mostly because Holliday is now a little less likely to be the pick, and 2) taking a bigger cut is a real option, with Eli Willits the main cut-rate possibility, though Aiva Arquette has also been mentioned.
All but Willits are advised by Scott Boras, and he’ll never tip his hand until he has to; now is not the time yet. Nothing is decided here and price will be a factor. If I turned this in 15 minutes before the draft, the Nats might still not have made the decision, so I’ll stick with what seems most likely, even if I don’t feel great about it. Landon Harmon is a rumored later round, overslot target.
For context, a scouting director for a team picking in the top 10 said I shouldn’t feel confident about anything happening in the top three picks specifically, adding, “I’m hearing there’s wars happening in all of those rooms right now” (as of Friday night). I ran that by another director picking up high: “Yeah, we’re hearing the same thing.”
2. Los Angeles Angels
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Rank: 6
I’m going to stick with Doyle because he makes the most sense for what the Angels have proved they’re looking for in recent drafts: a polished, quick-moving college player who will come at a savings.
I’ve heard at least six players seriously connected to this pick in the past few days: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Ike Irish and Willits. There are a couple more I’ve been told are under consideration who I’m not taking seriously as options here.
It could be any of these players based on final conversations and bonus pricing info on each player coming in at the last minute. Doyle has a real shot to slide to No. 9 or No. 10 if he doesn’t go here, so he is motivated to give a competitive number.
0:55
Liam Doyle’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee’s Liam Doyle one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
3. Seattle Mariners
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 4
The hot rumor of the past few days is that Tyler Bremner will be the pick here at big savings, and that holds up to further analysis because, in style, Bremner and Hernandez (long connected to this pick) are pretty similar.
It’s pretty widely known that Anderson is the No. 1 player for Seattle and will be the pick if he gets here, which still has maybe a 20-30% chance of happening.
If Anderson isn’t here, I think the decision comes down to Bremner at the most savings, Irish at a little less savings or Hernandez at the least savings, broadly speaking. Some sources have said Arquette, Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are also in play here, but they seem like tertiary options.
I think Bremner having more support in the No. 11-15 area that was reflected in the last mock will raise his price a bit to where Hernandez will be the pick, but this one is also wide open at the moment and will come down to a last-minute bonus price check if Anderson isn’t available.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rank: 2
There has been some waffling late in the process from sources who think maybe the Rockies wouldn’t pay the overslot price to get Holliday down here — but much of what I hear very late in the process is wrong or intentional misinformation, so I’ll stick with what I’ve been hearing for a literal year.
I think the other options for Colorado if Holliday doesn’t get here are all college pitchers: Anderson, Arnold and Witherspoon, with Willits and Arquette getting some mentions.
1:10
Ethan Holliday’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Rank: 3
Willits seems securely in play at the top two picks and possibly at No. 4, so the Cardinals landing him here would be considered a solid outcome. I think Anderson and Holliday are the primary targets for this pick and Willits is next up, with Arnold and Irish as the possible underslot options.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Rank: 5
It sounds like Hernandez or Willits will be the pick if either is here, so the Pirates are rooting for Seattle to either land Anderson or opt for a cheaper alternative to Hernandez.
Otherwise, JoJo Parker, Arnold, Arquette and Irish are believed to be the four leading options here. Arnold has the most late support, but this one might also come down to money.
I hope you feel sympathy for me having to do this in public when none of these teams know what it will do and won’t for hours.
1:05
Jamie Arnold’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Florida State’s Jamie Arnold one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Rank: 7
I think this will come down to Parker, Iris, and Billy Carlson — and I think Parker has the edge.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Rank: 9
I think the Jays will pick Parker if he gets here and will consider Arnold along with Arquette and Irish if they are still available here. This decision seems to come down to Arquette or Irish, with Carlson and Witherspoon also under consideration.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Ike Irish, RF, Auburn
Rank: 13
I’m getting some late-breaking info that Irish is more of a fit here than Hall, so shuffling a few picks that follow to accommodate for that.
Cincinnati seems to be the floor if Hernandez or Doyle slip, and otherwise the Reds seem to be the ceiling for Hall. Irish, Witherspoon and Carlson are also in the mix.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 8
Carlson’s range seems to be No. 7 to No. 12 (or maybe No. 14). I think the White Sox really want to land the Parker brothers (JoJo and Jacob) but can’t get JoJo to this pick.
The White Sox have been all over high school hitters all spring, and Carlson gets the nod over Gavin Fien.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 18
Bremner is picking up steam at this pick, and I think his floor is now Boston’s pick at No. 15. It’s a bit surprising he could go ahead of Witherspoon, but Bremner clearly has been getting interest in the top half of the first round that just hadn’t leaked out to the industry at large until late. I think this will be a college player, likely a pitcher, with Witherspoon and Brendan Summerhill also mentioned here a lot.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rank: 13
A few names shuffled around late Sunday, and now one of the Rangers’ top targets will be available. Marek Houston is also in the mix here.
I think Hall and Carlson are the targets here, but neither will make it to the pick, so Cunningham will become the pick, narrowly over Josh Hammond. I was hearing Cunningham would fit more 20-30, and the late chatter is that he has multiple homes in the teens. As with the White Sox, the belief all spring was that the Rangers want a prep hitter here.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rank: 10
In a last-minute update, I shuffled four players and Witherspoon fits here as a solid value.
Irish is in play at most picks starting at No. 2 all the way down to the middle of the first round, but I think his slide would stop here. The Giants have long been tied to Marek Houston and Charles Davalan (a long shot at this pick, but gone by their next one), with Andrew Fischer getting some love as well.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Rank: 25
I think this pick will come down to Cunningham or Sean Gamble in this situation; Gamble could make it to their next pick.
The Rays are tied to prep position players for later picks and could pull a shocker, as I projected in my previous mock, by taking Jaden Fauske here.
I think Hall, Carlson and Cunningham are the main targets, but none of them is available in this projection. Witherspoon is from Florida and is a great value, while the Rays still have a chance to land Fauske at their next pick.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Rank: 12
I’ll stick with Fien here as one of the steadiest projections all spring. It sounds like Tyler Bremner will be the pick if he gets here, but that’s now looking unlikely.
Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Rank: 20
Kilen fits the type of prospect the Twins have targeted for a while. I could see Houston, Caden Bodine or Gage Wood being options here, too.
Josh Hammond, SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Rank: 17
I think the Cubs are targeting in-game power here, and Hammond makes a lot of sense. They’ve scouted Quentin Young pretty hard this spring as well, but this is too early for that kind of risk. Xavier Neyens, Wehiwa Aloy and Wood all fit, as well.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Rank: 22
I think Cunningham is the target here, but he isn’t available in this scenario. Hammond and Bodine are also mentioned here and I think Slater de Brun will be the selection at Arizona’s next pick.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Rank: 21
LaViolette should go in one of the next three picks and fits Baltimore’s style. He won’t get to the Orioles’ next pick, but they may be able to float targets down there with their extra pool muscle, as covered in the previous mock.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Rank: 14
Summerhill has a very unclear and wide range of teams that are interested but could fit here. Daniel Pierce, Houston, Bodine and Coy James are all in the mix for this pick.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Rank: 15
I think LaViolette, Neyens, Southisene and Aloy are all in the mix here, along with possible underslot deals for Davalan or de Brun.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Rank: 16
It now looks like Bremner won’t get here, but the Braves have been tied to Wood for about a month. Otherwise, the hit-first shortstops like Houston and Pierce are tied here.
Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Rank: 19
Hammond seems to be the target, but he doesn’t make it to K.C. in this edition. I think the Royals will take a prep pitcher with one of their high picks, likely either Watson or Fisher, and maybe another later on Day 1. Eyanson and Wood are two college arms being considered.
Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (NC)
Rank: 69
James has a good shot at being a Tiger, and some of Detroit’s primary options go right ahead of this spot in this scenario, so I think this could be a curveball pick to most viewers.
Fauske is another possibility here, along with Kruz Schoolcraft, Pierce, Watson, Dax Kilby (more at their next pick), de Brun (same), Southisene and Fischer.
Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
Rank: 45
There’s lots of late momentum for Eyanson here, which is counter to the history of A.J. Preller’s time making picks for the Padres, so I’m going out on a limb.
Kilby on a cut, Young, Schoolcraft, Alec Blair, Josh Owens and de Brun all seem like high schoolers in the mix here.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 23
Philly normally takes high-ceiling high school players, but this is too good of a value to pass up. Matthew Fisher, Sean Gamble and Blair are the leading prep targets, and Fischer is also mentioned.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV)
Rank: 37
Kane Kepley on a big cut, Devin Taylor on a smaller one, Kilby and Watson are all options here.
Note: No. 27 is the final pick of the first round of the 2025 MLB draft. You can read mock draft 3.0 for my thinking and potential targets for teams making the comp and second-round picks that follow and see the full draft order here.
28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
31. Baltimore Orioles: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
33. Boston Red Sox: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
34. Detroit Tigers: Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
35. Seattle Mariners: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
36. Minnesota Twins: Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
37. Baltimore Orioles: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL)
38. New York Mets: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
39. New York Yankees: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
40: Los Angeles Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL)
43. Miami Marlins: Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (CA)
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
45. Colorado Rockies: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
46. Miami Marlins: Josh Owens, SS, Providence Academy HS (TN)
47. Los Angeles Angels: J.D. Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt
48. Athletics: J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
49. Washington Nationals: Max Belyeu, RF, Texas
50. Pittsburgh Pirates: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
51. Cincinnati Reds: Taitn Gray, C, Grimes Community HS (IA)
52. Texas Rangers: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
53. Tampa Bay Rays: Dean Moss, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
54. Minnesota Twins: Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
55. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Flemming, SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
56. Chicago Cubs: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
57. Seattle Mariners: Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
58. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
59. Milwaukee Brewers: Mitch Voit, 2B, Michigan
60. Atlanta Braves: Kane Kepley, CF, North Carolina
61. Kansas City Royals: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
62. Detroit Tigers: Dean Curley, 3B, Tennessee
63. Philadelphia Phillies: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
64. Cleveland Guardians: A.J. Russell, RHP, Tennessee
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chase Shores, RHP, LSU
66. Cleveland Guardians: Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa
67. Tampa Bay Rays: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
68. Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Dickinson, 2B, LSU
69. Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Compton, LF, Arizona State
70. Cleveland Guardians: Aiden Stillman, LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL)
71. Kansas City Royals: Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA)
72. St. Louis Cardinals: Joseph Dzierwa, LHP, Michigan State
73. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ethan Petry, 1B, South Carolina
74. Colorado Rockies: Easton Carmichael, C, Oklahoma
75. Boston Red Sox: Jake Cook, CF, Southern Miss
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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