Biggest questions ahead of the 2023 World Junior Championship
The IIHF World Junior Championship has become ubiquitous — in hockey circles at least — with the Christmas holiday season. And the tournament returns this year to its usual place of honor.
That’s after the 2022 championship was shuttered in December 2021 amid a spike of COVID-19 cases within the Edmonton “bubble,” which was serving as the tournament’s venue. The event was ultimately restaged there in August, with Team Canada beating Team Finland 3-2 in overtime to claim gold.
So, if you’re feeling some déjà vu — “wait, didn’t they just crown a World Junior champion?” — you’re not wrong; Canada hasn’t had long to lord its victory over others. Them’s the breaks.
Because Canada — along with nine other nations — is back to battling for another WJC top prize. Pre-tournament action was underway earlier this week and gives way to preliminary round games starting Monday.
The 10 participating teams exist in two groups at two different locations: Group A features Canada, Sweden, Czechia, Germany and Austria playing at Scotiabank Center in Halifax, Nova Scotia, while Group B has the United States, Finland, Switzerland, Slovakia and Latvia at Avenir Center in Moncton, New Brunswick.
Organizers didn’t intend for Canadian cities to host the tournament again so soon after Edmonton’s back-to-back turn. In 2018, the IIHF announced Novosibirsk, Russia (for Group A), and Omsk, Russia (for Group B), would share duties for 2023. But those plans changed in February because of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the IIHF condemned by not only stripping Russia of its hosting rights but suspending teams from Russia and Belarus from international hockey indefinitely.
And so, the World Juniors return to Canada for a third consecutive year. Once the playing field has been whittled down in separate locations, the top four teams from each group move onto the quarterfinals, starting Jan. 2. The semifinals follow on Jan. 4, and the bronze and gold medal games pop up on Jan. 5. The bottom-ranked teams from each group will play a best-of-three series in relegation.
Before all that fun begins, let’s go over major storylines to monitor and highlight key players to keep an eye on. If history has taught us anything, there’s always something unexpected ahead when the game’s best young talent squares off.
Can Adam Fantilli outshine Connor Bedard?
There are no guarantees when it comes to the NHL draft rankings and results. Just ask Shane Wright.
This time last year, there was zero question — or so it seemed — that Wright would be the No. 1 overall pick in July. Instead, Montreal went way off script by selecting Juraj Slafkovsky in the top spot and Wright fell to Seattle at No. 4.
Now, it’s Canada’s Connor Bedard who’s on track to be taken first in June. His teammate Adam Fantilli would like to be the Slafkovsky-like spoiler.
But it won’t be easy.
Bedard has an impeccable résumé. In 2020, he became just the seventh player (after the likes of Connor McDavid, John Tavares and Aaron Ekblad) to be granted “exceptional status” by Hockey Canada to appear in the Western Hockey League at just 15 years old. The pandemic interrupted Bedard’s debut campaign with the WHL’s Regina Pats, but the center finished 2021-22 with 100 points in 62 games. He leads the WHL this season with 64 points in 28 games.
Bedard, 17, is more than just a scoring threat, though. The North Vancouver, British Columbia, native is also an enviable playmaker and silky skater, possessing an incomparably wicked shot and mind for the game that moves so quick, he’s constantly one step ahead on the ice. He could be the total package.
Fantilli forged a different path than Bedard through his junior career. The Toronto-area product spent two seasons with the USHL’s Chicago Steel from 2020 to 2022, where he produced 110 points in 103 games. Fantilli graduated from there to the University of Michigan, and is midway through a successful freshman campaign (26 points in 16 games).
So, where might Fantilli have an edge over Bedard? In size, for one. The 18-year-old comes in at 6-foot-2 to Bedard’s 5-foot-10. Fantilli has potential as a power forward who’s tenacious on the forecheck and can outduel opponents in front of the net. He’s fast and skilled and could be an eventual No. 1 center for an NHL team.
Scouts will see Fantilli and Bedard sharing a sheet for the next few weeks. It’s an opportunity for both players to showcase the best they have to offer. Could one tournament make or break a franchise-altering decision? Likely not. But Team Canada’s stars will draw a spotlight regardless. What they do with that attention? We’ll be watching to find out.
Can Team USA get back on top?
Team USA entered the 2022 tournament as reigning gold medal winners following a triumph over Canada the previous winter. They wound up leaving Edmonton (Part II) with a disappointing fifth-place finish. Two years ago, the USA came in sixth.
Overall, the Americans have enjoyed ample success at past World Juniors though, capturing four gold, one silver and three bronze medals since 2010. And they’ve already gone 2-0 in pre-tournament action to date.
If Team USA wants to add more hardware, it will need continued performances from its veteran skaters.
Enter Luke Hughes.
Team USA’s captain and defensive scoring leader had six points in five games at the 2022 WJC and has put together a nice season so far at Michigan (18 points in 20 games). The 19-year-old — brother to NHLers Jack Hughes and Quinn Hughes — will be looked to for leadership on and off the ice, to anchor the American blue line and to bolster special team units. Hughes is a terrific skater who was impressive in pre-tournament action scoring a game-opening goal for the U.S. He’ll likely be at the forefront of any American success to come.
Then there’s the forward group, headed by Logan Cooley and Jimmy Snuggerud. Cooley was just drafted third overall by Arizona in July and wields a sharp two-way game and blistering wrist shot. Getting some experience during his freshman season at the University of Minnesota (25 points in 19 games) should only have helped Cooley mature and make him reliable and dangerous in every situation.
Snuggerud is Cooley’s teammate at Minnesota (second in NCAA scoring, with 27 points in 20 games thus far). While this is his WJC debut, Snuggerud appears unfazed by a big stage. He was strong in the early games, boasting a size (6-foot-2) and skill that can complement anyone he’s playing with.
Cutter Gauthier — already on Team USA’s top line with Cooley and Snuggerud — is another player to watch. Ditto for Sean Behrens on the back end and Kenny Connors in the bottom six rotation. What should set Team USA apart is its depth. On paper — and by the looks of those two games in the books — there’s potential for this to be a multifaceted foe any opponent would fear.
If the Americans can avoid hurting themselves via unforced errors and careless penalties, and there’s solid goaltending ahead from Kaidan Mbereko, especially, Team USA has to like its chances of being in the top-three mix again in January.
Can a certain Swede raise his stock?
You know Bedard. And Fantilli. And how they are likely to be the top two prospects in this year’s draft (as of now).
Now say hello to Leo Carlsson.
The Swedish forward is a projected top-five choice in 2023 who could push his way up a few draft boards with a successful World Juniors showing. What could that look like for the 17-year-old? It starts from the foundation he’s already built.
Carlsson’s been honing his skills the past two years with Orebro HK of the Swedish Hockey League, facing high-end competition that’s helped rapidly mature his game. The center has consistently produced points this season — 14 in 25 tilts to date — but Carlsson’s impact goes beyond scoring goals. He’s a play-driving forward, is good in transition and gets to the net and creates for linemates. An October video of Carlsson deftly stickhandling through a crowd quickly turned heads and showcased what sets him apart from other skaters his age.
Another defining Carlsson quality is his preternatural calm that leads to confidence. The teenager appears unaffected by added pressure, which bodes well for Carlsson’s potential to pierce the NHL ranks sooner than later once he is drafted.
Sweden took home bronze at last season’s WJC and earned five other medals — including one gold and three silver — since 2012. It is a motivated bunch again this year, and it’s the ultimate opportunity for Carlsson to make his case as a top-three selection come June.
It’s worth noting that another player gunning for similar consideration won’t be on display the next couple weeks — at least not in this tournament. Matvei Michkov would be highlighting a roster for Team Russia if there was one. Some have already anointed the 18-year-old forward a future face of Russian hockey. But instead of representing his country right now in Canada, Michkov has inked a deal to suit up for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL through 2025-26.
Michkov’s draft potential is complicated. Given the talent and high hockey IQ Michkov flaunts, NHL clubs will still be interested in securing his rights for down the line — Kirill Kaprizov was drafted in 2015, but didn’t make his NHL debut until the 2020-21 season. But will Michkov come off the board before or after Carlsson? And if the Swedish standout does enough at World Juniors, can he gain the inside track on Michkov? Oh, the drama.
Can an underdog contender emerge?
Now, “underdog” is a relative term here, used mostly to describe “not Canada or the United States.”
We already know those North American squads are expected to excel and are routinely considered the ones to beat. So, who might be up to the task?
Finland
Only Canada, the U.S. and Finland have won gold at the past 10 World Juniors. And Finland was one overtime marker away from topping Canada on the podium in August. Months later, Finland is primed to make another strong push in the tournament.
Finland’s team philosophy works from the defense out, so Aleksi Heimosalmi and Otto Salin should be setting a tone on the blue line that extends everywhere else. Even though skaters like Joakim Kemell and Niko Huuhtanen can score (and the Finns are hopeful Brad Lambert starts showing up on the scoresheet, too), defense is Finland’s first priority. If it can stick to its script, Finland has a good chance of getting a medal.
Czechia
The plucky group finished fourth in last season’s tournament, a wild ride that included losing to Latvia and then eliminating the undefeated Americans. It was Tomas Suchanek’s incredible performance in net that delivered the latter outcome, and Suchanek has returned to backstop Czechia. He might not be an elite netminder, but Suchanek works hard and plays behind a defense led by David Jiricek. The Columbus Blue Jackets‘ prospect has had a terrific season in the AHL, averaging a point per game and is supported by Tomas Hamara and Stanislav Svozil.
Up front, it’s Buffalo Sabres‘ prospect Jiri Kulich — who has 16 points in 24 AHL games this season — and New York Rangers‘ selection Jaroslav Chmelar — a standout freshman at Providence College — challenging opponents. All in all, Czechia’s got real potential to surprise.
Sweden
Recently, Sweden has failed to turn excellent preliminary round performances into gold-medal game appearances; it hasn’t been to that stage since 2018. The Swedes’ mission to return starts with the previously mentioned Carlsson and extends to several key players showing up.
Goaltender Carl Lindblom takes over for Jesper Wallstedt, and there’s high hopes for what the Golden Knights’ prospect can bring given the great season he’s having in the Swedish professional league, HockeyAllsvenskan. Sweden’s biggest weakness might be its lack of top-tier defensemen, so the forward group will be relied on even more to drive Sweden’s success. It has Carlsson there, along with Filip Bystedt (a first-round choice by San Jose in 2022) and Fabian Lysell (a 2021 first-round choice by Boston).
The question mark is Vancouver prospect Jonathan Lekkerimäki, who hasn’t produced a point in the SHL since November, but has game-changing potential when he’s going. He’ll have something to prove at this tournament and that could be a huge boost for Sweden.
Can Austria sidestep relegation?
What is relegation? Glad you asked!
At the end of the WJC’s round-robin, the two last-placed teams will play a best-of-three series. Whichever team wins will be allowed back at next year’s tournament; the loser is relegated to Division 1 Group A.
How does Austria avoid this fate? Another good question!
Austria has injected some fun into the WJC since reaching top-tier status in 2021. That hasn’t resulted in further success. The IIHF removed relegation the past two seasons, so Austria didn’t have to worry about slipping back there (and given Austria was 0-4 and outscored 28-1 in no-relegation 2020, it truly dodged a bullet). But there’s no such luck this time around.
Unfortunately, Austria won’t have its biggest name in Marco Kasper. The Detroit Red Wings prospect opted to continue working on his game with the SHL’s Rogle BK. Bummer for Austria. Also not around is goaltender Sebastian Wraneschitz, who made 119 saves in two games during the 2021 tournament that might have actually resulted in a win if he’d gotten any goal support.
There’s still hope for Austria, though. Forward Vinzenz Rohrer has been lighting up the OHL with 32 points in 26 games for the Ottawa 67’s, and 2023 draft-eligible Ian Scherzer can build off a strong showing in last summer’s tournament with another two-way performance here. On the back end, keep your eyes peeled for David Reinbacher. He had two assists through four games at the last WJC, and has collected 14 points in 28 games with the Swiss league’s Kloten HC this season. A dual threat like Reinbacher immediately improves his country’s odds.
It’ll be tough, though. Austria has Sweden, Czechia and Canada to face. It’s Austria’s final game against Germany that could tell the tale. If Austria hasn’t earned any points and neither has Germany, there’s a chance Austria doesn’t slide into a relegation matchup that likely pits it against Latvia. Stars will need to align for Austria, but otherworldly showings from Scherzer, Reinbacher and Rohrer could help get them there.
PHILADELPHIA — The Flyers celebrate the star of each victory this season by presenting him with a replica Bernie Parent goalie mask. The white mask with the Flyers logo on each side of the temples looks much like the one Parent wore as a cover boy in the 1970s on Time magazine when the Flyers truly meant something — beyond the Philly sports scene, and even the NHL — and he served as the cloaked face of the Broad Street Bullies.
The Flyers pulled out the mask Saturday night before their game against New Jersey and let it rest on top of one of the goalie nets. One more final tribute for Parent, the Hall of Fame goalie who was honored by the franchise this weekend two months after he died at age 80.
“Forever our No. 1,” said Lou Nolan, the Flyers’ public address announcer since 1972.
With that, the spotlight shone on Parent’s retired No. 1 banner that hangs in the rafters, just a row ahead of the two oversized Stanley Cup championship banners — the only ones in franchise history — that catch the eye in Flyers orange and might not even exist at all if not for the affable goalie from Montreal.
Parent anchored the net for the Flyers when the Bullies reigned under owner Ed Snider as one of the marquee teams in sports. Parent won Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe and Vezina trophies in back-to-back seasons when the Flyers captured the Stanley Cup in ’74 and ’75, the first NHL expansion team to win the championship.
Ahead of the game Saturday against New Jersey, a photo of a smiling Parent flashing his two Stanley Cup rings on the outside arena videoboard loomed large over the 9-foot bronze statue for Snider, the Flyers’ founder who died in 2016.
“‘We’ve got two Stanley Cups because of Bernie,” Hall of Famer Bobby Clarke said at a celebration of life event in front of thousands of Flyers fans.
Flyers fans poured out this weekend to remember Parent over a two-day celebration that started with Friday’s service and extended into Saturday’s tribute game. Flyers fans in droves wore No. 1 Parent jerseys during the game — and what would the goalie think even as, yes, his beloved Flyers scored three goals in 26 seconds against beleaguered Jake Allen — and they roared for every highlight from Parent’s glory years.
The loudest cheers were saved for the Stanley Cup highlights.
The Flyers beat the Boston Bruins in six games to win the Stanley Cup in 1974 and beat Buffalo in 1975. Parent had shutouts in the clinchers each season.
On the flight home from Buffalo, the Flyers plopped the Stanley Cup in the middle of the aisle. For close to 90 minutes, they couldn’t take their eyes off hockey’s ultimate prize.
“We were able to just sit back, look at the Stanley Cup and just savor it,” Parent said in 2010. “It was just a special time.”
With Parent the unstoppable force in net, “Only the Lord saves more than Bernie Parent,” became a popular bumper sticker in Philadelphia that would stick on him as a lifelong slogan — and popular autograph inscription request — through retirement and his many years as a team ambassador.
Parent also served as an ambassador for the Ed Snider Youth Hockey and Education program; a youth hockey program created in 2005 for under-resourced youth in Philadelphia.
The program announced Saturday it would honor Parent’s legacy with the Bernie Parent Goalie Development Program, aimed to prepare young people for success both on and off the ice. Flyers Charities presented a $50,000 donation which was matched by Snider’s children.
Parent, team captain Bobby Clarke and Dave “The Hammer” Schultz all became stars for the Flyers under Snider in an era when the team was known for its rugged style of play that earned the Bullies nickname. They embraced their moniker as the roughest team in the NHL and pounded their way into the hearts of Flyers fans. More than 2 million fans packed Philadelphia streets for each of their championship parades.
Most of the living members from the Cup teams attended the game Saturday and Clarke choked back tears at the memorial as he listed other Flyers from the Stanley Cup teams who have since died. Barry Ashbee. Ed Van Impe. Bill Flett. Ross Lonsberry. Rick MacLeish
“And now, God bless Bernie, because he’s going to join them,” Clarke said. “And the rest of us, until we go join them, we will talk together forever.”
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Mackenzie Blackwood made 35 saves to lead the Colorado Avalanche to a 3-0 victory over the Nashville Predators on Saturday night.
Brent Burns scored early, and Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Drury added empty-net goals for the Avalanche. Colorado has won eight straight, their longest winning streak since taking nine in a row March 4-24, 2024.
The Avalanche hold the best record in the league and are five points up from the second-place Carolina Hurricanes.
Juuse Saros made 23 saves for the Predators, losers of seven of eight. Saturday was the first game back in North America for the Predators after playing a pair of Global Series games last week against the Pittsburgh Penguins in Stockholm, Sweden. The Predators have been shutout in consecutive games.
The shutout was the first of the season and 15th of Blackwood’s career.
Burns scored the game’s first goal just 15 seconds after the opening faceoff.
After a battle in the right corner, the puck came to Burns above the right circle, where he beat Saros with a wrist shot on the first shot of the game.
The game remained 1-0 until MacKinnon scored an empty-net goal was 1:35 remaining in the third with Saros pulled for an extra attacker. Drury added another empty-netter with 51 seconds left.
MacKinnon has three goals in his last two games.
Colorado defenseman Cale Makar failed to record a point in a road game for the first time this season.
The Predators outshot the Avalanche 16-6 in the first, but couldn’t get one past Blackwood.
Saturday was just the fifth time this season that an opponent has outshot the Avalanche. Colorado is 5-0-0 in those games.
Blackwood stopped Nashville’s Michael McCarron with 5:47 remaining in the third on a backhand from the low slot to keep the Predators off the board.
Predators captain Roman Josi returned to the lineup Saturday after missing 12 games with an upper-body injury.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Surprise — there were no surprises.
After a ho-hum Week 13 that featured only two games between two ranked opponents, there wasn’t any movement in this week’s top 12 projection, but there are two questions looming over the committee as it debates its fourth of six rankings to be revealed on Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET/ESPN):
Here’s a prediction of what the group might do in the latest ranking on Tuesday night:
Projecting the top 12
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
Why they could be here: A dominant win against a now sub.-500 Rutgers team isn’t going to change the way the committee views Ohio State — as the most complete team in the country. Ohio State entered Saturday leading the country in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Wins against No. 17 Texas and No. 21 Illinois (which lost to Wisconsin on Saturday) are its only ones against CFP top 25 opponents, but a road win against Washington is also respected in the room. The committee has specifically noted the elite play of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — and even with both sidelined with injuries on Saturday, Ohio State was able to dismantle the Rutgers defense.
Why they could be lower: Nothing happened on Saturday that would prompt the committee to rethink the Buckeyes’ place at the top, but Ohio State had the worst schedule strength (No. 48) of the top three teams entering Saturday.
Need to know: Although Ohio State and Indiana remain the most likely matchup in the Big Ten championship game — each controls its own destiny — neither clinched a spot in Week 13. Ohio State can clinch a spot with a win against Michigan OR losses by both Indiana and Oregon. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are joined by Oregon and Michigan with chances to reach the Big Ten title game, but the latter two teams both need help to clinch.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)
Why they could be here: With the Hoosiers on a bye — and both Ohio State and Texas A&M playing unranked, inferior opponents — it’s unlikely there’s any movement at the top again. Indiana has earned the committee’s respect with its double-digit win at Oregon and its top-five rankings for both offensive and defensive efficiency. The group has taken note of Indiana’s consistent dominance, with its most glaring struggles coming on the road at Iowa and Penn State, both notoriously difficult places to win. Indiana entered Week 13 ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric.
Why they could be higher: Given how the committee has voted and deliberated through three rankings, Indiana likely needs Ohio State to lose to Michigan — or IU needs to beat the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game — to earn the top spot.
Need to know: Indiana can clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win next week or an Ohio State loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. The Hoosiers had a bye to prepare for their regular-season finale against their in-state rivals.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (11-0)
Why they could be here: It’s not because they manhandled Samford, an overmatched 1-11 FCS team. It’s mostly because the Aggies are clinging to a 41-40 win at No. 9 Notre Dame, the highlight of their undefeated résumé. The Nov. 8 win at Mizzou, which came when Tigers starting quarterback Beau Pribula was sidelined with an injury, is a borderline top-25 win that was devalued somewhat on Saturday by Mizzou’s loss to Oklahoma. Texas A&M still leads the nation in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which gives the average top 25 team just a 2.2% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.
Why they could be lower: It’s unlikely anything will change in the third ranking, but if Texas A&M loses to Texas — and doesn’t win the SEC — it will be interesting to see where the Aggies fall on Selection Day. They didn’t face Alabama or Georgia during the regular season, playing just the 12th-most difficult schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN Analytics — ahead of only Vandy, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Aggies rank just outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Need to know: The Aggies will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Texas OR if both Alabama and Ole Miss lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns will have home-field advantage on Friday night after Thanksgiving.
4. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are here because of their 35-10 drubbing of Texas on Nov. 15 — not because they overpowered Charlotte 35-3 on Saturday. Georgia has one loss and Alabama has two, so the Bulldogs’ head-to-head loss to the Tide on Sept. 27 was overcome in the third ranking. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas give Georgia one of the best résumés in the country. Georgia entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and No. 12 in strength of schedule — ahead of Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see the committee move Georgia this week — especially since everyone played weaker opponents and Texas Tech was on a bye — but if Texas A&M loses to Texas this Friday, it will open the door for debate between the Bulldogs and Aggies. The committee would compare Texas as a common opponent, and Georgia beat the Longhorns soundly. Georgia also has more wins against ranked opponents (a win against Georgia Tech could add another) and a slightly tougher schedule. Some committee members could also think Georgia would have a slightly better loss (Alabama) than A&M (Texas).
Need to know: According to ESPN Research, Georgia can clinch a spot in the SEC title game in Week 14 with an Alabama loss OR a Texas A&M loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The one-loss Yellow Jackets pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year.
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders had a bye week and are “highly regarded by this committee,” chair Hunter Yurachek said following the third ranking. Dominant wins at Utah and against BYU have elevated Texas Tech in the ranking, and the committee has also been impressed with the Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front. Texas Tech’s lone loss was Oct. 18 at Arizona State, which popped into the latest ranking at No. 25, helping to ease some of that stumble.
Why they could be lower: With both Texas Tech and Ole Miss off on Saturday, it’s unlikely their positions will change in the fourth ranking.
Need to know: Texas Tech is within arm’s reach of a first-round bye, which makes it highly unlikely the Red Raiders would fall out of the playoff even if they finished as the Big 12 runner-up.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. It’s on the road at a notoriously difficult venue, but the Red Raiders have a 91.6% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)
Why they could be here: The committee has had Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss in part because of a better résumé, though the Red Raiders have two top-25 wins (BYU and Utah), and Ole Miss also has two (Oklahoma and Tulane). The Rebels’ win against the Sooners looks better than Oregon’s win against USC, as the Sooners are a top-10 team and were able to hold off Missouri on Saturday to stay that way.
Why they could be lower: The committee members could consider bumping Oregon ahead of Ole Miss, as they’ve been waiting for a performance like Saturday’s against another CFP contender and the Ducks delivered against USC. Oregon and Ole Miss are extremely close in both strength of record and strength of schedule, and they both lost to a top-four team. Ole Miss also has a win against Tulane, which is now the leader for a Group of 5 playoff spot, and the win against the Sooners was on the road, whereas Oregon beat USC at home. With everything else so comparable, those are some small details that might continue to lean in the Rebels’ favor — if maybe for only another week.
Need to know: The Rebels will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game if they win the Egg Bowl AND both Texas A&M and Alabama lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Rebels don’t have much if any margin for error against their in-state rivals. A second loss would put Ole Miss into a debate it might not win, given its schedule strength ranks No. 15 in the SEC.
7. Oregon Ducks (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Ducks added a much-needed statement win to their résumé on Saturday against USC, solidifying their spot as the Big Ten’s third playoff team. Assuming three-loss USC is still ranked on Tuesday night, though, Saturday’s victory is the Ducks’ only win against a CFP top 25 team. Big Ten opponents Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all above .500, which the committee values, but Ole Miss has a slightly better résumé with its wins against Oklahoma and Tulane.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks have won five straight since their 30-20 home loss against Indiana on Oct. 11, but USC was the kind of strong performance against a top-15 team the committee has been waiting for. And they did it without several key injured players on both sides of the ball.
Need to know: With USC dropping out of the playoff picture, the biggest threat to Oregon is gone, but Michigan can still disrupt the picture in the final week. According to ESPN Research, if Michigan beats rival Ohio State AND Indiana OR Oregon loses, the Wolverines will clinch a spot in the conference championship game. Which team they face depends on how those other results unfold, but they could play any of those three — Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. This isn’t an easy road trip, as the bowl-bound Huskies have had a respectable season in the second year under coach Jedd Fisch.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)
Why they could be here: A win against what was the committee’s No. 22 team in Missouri should further solidify Oklahoma’s foothold in the No. 8 spot because the defense was dominant on a day the offense did just enough. That was Oklahoma’s third straight win against a CFP top 25 opponent, including back-to-back road wins against Tennessee and Alabama. The Sooners also earned a ranked win on Sept. 6 against Michigan, which continues to be valuable after the Wolverines kept their playoff hopes alive on Saturday with a win against Maryland.
Why they could be lower: It’s clear the committee likes Notre Dame, and the Irish hammered Syracuse 70-7. Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best in the country, but the Sooners’ offense is No. 43 in efficiency — well below No. 6 Notre Dame. It would be difficult to justify flipping the Irish above the Sooners, though, given that Syracuse is now 3-8 and OU beat a ranked SEC team on top of having a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the debate between Oklahoma and Notre Dame would be settled on the field — in Norman, where the Sooners would have home-field advantage in the first round. The No. 8 spot is the last team in the ranking to host a first-round game.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. LSU. The Sooners need to avoid what would be a devastating upset to the four-loss Tigers.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2)
Why they could be here: The Irish have won nine straight since an 0-2 start, and the committee has considered Notre Dame’s narrow losses to Texas A&M and Miami important factors in its deliberations. One reason Notre Dame was ranked ahead of two-loss Alabama in the third ranking was because the Irish lost by a combined four points to two ranked opponents. Alabama’s season-opening loss to Florida State and its continued inability to run the ball have held it back. The Irish racked up some style points in Saturday’s drubbing of Syracuse, but the committee has already rewarded Notre Dame for its running game and staunch defense. On Saturday, the Irish scored three touchdowns (two on defense and one on special teams) before the offense even took the field. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt.
Why they could be higher: If the committee gives Notre Dame another boost, it would be because the Irish have been more consistently dominant on offense than the Sooners. Oklahoma, though, has played tougher competition than Notre Dame over the past few weeks and has the edge in overall schedule strength and strength of record.
Need to know: Although Notre Dame appears safe — and it would certainly be a shock to see it fall out of the playoff field — there is still a nightmare scenario for the Irish. If Alabama wins the SEC and jumps ahead of Notre Dame, pushing the Irish to the No. 10 spot, they could be in trouble if the Big 12 has two playoff teams. If BYU wins the Big 12, and Texas Tech joins it in the top nine as the Big 12 runner-up — then a team currently in the top 10 has to be excluded. The No. 11 team will get bumped out for the ACC champ and the No. 12 team will get knocked out for the Group of 5 champion.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Stanford. The Irish have a 95% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2)
Why they could be here: The committee made it clear last week that Alabama’s struggles on the ground have been an issue all season. It was one factor that separated No. 9 Notre Dame from No. 10 Alabama in last Tuesday’s ranking. Alabama’s 259 rushing yards in a lopsided 56-0 win against a 3-9 FCS team in Eastern Illinois aren’t going to sway anyone in the room enough to move the Tide up. Alabama still has one of the best résumés in the country, including a win against No. 4 Georgia during a streak of four straight CFP top 25 wins during the middle of the season. The loss to Oklahoma will keep Alabama behind the Sooners as long as the committee deems them comparable.
Why they could be higher: If Alabama’s résumé wasn’t enough to keep the Tide ahead of Notre Dame last week, it’s unlikely to change this week. Alabama entered Saturday No. 8 in strength of record and No. 2 in strength of schedule, both ahead of Notre Dame.
Need to know: With Tennessee’s win on Saturday, Alabama can now clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win against Auburn.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Iron Bowl is a must-win for the Tide.
11. BYU Cougars (10-1)
Why they could be here: With the win at Cincinnati, BYU passed its toughest remaining test of the regular season and earned another road win against a team that was ranked by the committee, albeit for a fleeting moment. BYU’s Oct. 18 win against Utah will continue to resonate in the room after Utah found a way to beat a pesky K-State team. The head-to-head win against the Utes will also keep BYU ahead of them. BYU’s only loss was on the road against No. 5 Texas Tech, but it was a poor performance that raised some eyebrows in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify moving BYU given the head-to-head against Utah and one fewer loss. And Alabama’s résumé will make it very difficult for the Cougars to move up.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but is guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. UCF. The 5-6 Knights will be playing for bowl eligibility.
12. Utah Utes (9-2)
Why they could be here: After Utah found a way to escape K-State on Saturday, its only losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — Texas Tech and BYU — and the committee considers who a team lost to as part of its deliberations. The Utes’ best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to BYU.
Why they could be lower: The committee could reward Miami’s convincing road win at Virginia Tech and bump the Canes up a notch because they played far better defense — albeit against a 3-8 ACC team. Utah allowed 472 rushing yards and 11.2 yards per carry against Kansas State — on its home field. It was Miami’s third straight win by at least 17 points, showing some of the consistency committee members had been looking for. Miami’s season-opening win against Notre Dame is also better than any win Utah has earned to date.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week we project will be Tulane.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas. At 5-6, the Jayhawks will be playing for bowl eligibility.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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