Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
Christmas is still ahead of us, and yet the baseball industry has already spent in record numbers and signed away most of the best available players. Twenty-four of the top 25 free agents, as ranked by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel in early November, have already chosen new teams, signing deals totaling close to $2.8 billion.
But it isn’t just the amount of money that is jarring — it’s the length of time teams are willing to pay it.
Turner and Bogaerts will be paid through their age-40 seasons. Correa and Aaron Judge, who accepted a nine-year, $360 million contract to return to the New York Yankees, are locked up through age 39.
The idea of signing a player for a decade or more on a deal that will almost certainly take him to the very end of his career seems counterintuitive to modern roster construction. Front offices are smarter, more analytically minded than ever, hyper-focused on efficiency and well-schooled on the deficiencies of players in their mid to late 30s. The sport itself, proliferated by devastating breaking balls and triple-digit fastballs, has never been more unkind to the slower reaction times of those approaching middle age. And yet teams are handing out long-term contracts like never before. Ten of the past 11 deals signed for 10 or more years have come since 2019, and this offseason has taken that approach to a new level.
What gives? ESPN spoke to more than a dozen people in the industry, most of them executives and agents, in an effort to figure out why prolonged contracts are suddenly the rage. Three main theories emerged.
Lower AAVs are valuable
The most popular reason given to explain the plethora of long-term deals was simply that lengthening out a contract is an easy way to minimize present-day costs.
One in particular embodied that sentiment: Bryce Harper‘s 13-year, $330 million agreement with the Phillies, obtained near the end of February in 2019. Harper, represented by Scott Boras, perceivably entered free agency with a desire to top Giancarlo Stanton‘s $325 million extension and thus set a record for total guarantee. To attain it, he accepted a lower average annual value, of about $25 million, which in turn helped the Phillies reduce the deal’s year-to-year impact on the luxury tax. (AAV, not year-to-year salary, is used to calculate where teams reside in relation to the luxury tax threshold.)
Harper’s deal lies in stark contrast with the short-term, high-AAV deals that have also populated the industry in recent years, obtained by Trevor Bauer (three years and $102 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers), Max Scherzer (three years and $130 million from the Mets) and Justin Verlander (two years and $86.7 million from the Mets). Those deals drove up prices; Harper’s provided an alternate path for players who sought to cash in similarly.
“I think for a period of time, agents weren’t really letting that be on the table and were focused on the AAV,” an assistant general manager said. “So now there are opportunities for higher AAVs and opportunities for longer deals. Before, no one was doing the Verlander contract, so the only path was the deals that were signed.”
Correa has lived both worlds, obtaining a $35.1 million AAV on a short-term deal with the Minnesota Twins last year, then opting out and ultimately getting $315 million from the Mets. As one agent said: “This is really about the luxury tax.”
The new collective bargaining agreement included a relatively large increase in the luxury tax threshold, jumping nearly 10% from 2021 to 2022. But the repercussions were also stiffer, with a fourth tier introduced and other draft-related penalties looming. Teams now have more room to maneuver, but also a desire to maintain the flexibility to get back under the threshold and avoid escalating repeater penalties.
The luxury tax threshold is $233 million for the 2023 season, a $23 million increase from where it stood as recently as 2021, with an overage rate of 20%. But the rates multiply significantly depending on the amount teams go over by and how many consecutive years they do so, getting as high as 110%. Teams can also be stripped of draft picks and lose international-bonus-pool money. It has prompted them to pivot. A recent FanGraphs article also made the point that the nation’s economy, specifically federal interest rates, has motivated teams to stretch dollars out into future years.
The contracts for Correa, Turner and Bogaerts all rank within the top 15 all-time in total value — but none are within the top 25 in AAV.
“Rates are going up, and it makes sense to stretch out this money over time,” another agent said. “Teams can do some savvy financial work on the back end to cover the financial implications of the future costs of the contract. But also, stretching out the deals and lowering the AAV allows teams to have more flexibility under the new CBT thresholds, especially if they go up. The back end of deals are essentially all deferred money. Teams know they are eating the last few years of the contract.”
Players are starting earlier, potentially aging better
The combination of getting to free agency earlier and theoretically, with the help of modern technology, maintaining production at an older age could be as important as anything in the discussion of long-term contracts. In the past, achieving the six years of service time required for free agency often meant players hit the open market in their 30s. But players — especially star-caliber prospects — are often matriculating through minor league systems at a faster rate, debuting in the majors earlier and thus becoming free agents sooner.
The past three offseasons have seen a total of 581 players become free agents before turning 30, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information. If you go back nearly a decade, to the three-year span from 2012 to 2014, that number was only 182. The game, in essence, keeps getting younger. Correa (28) and Turner (29) have yet to reach their 30s. When Shohei Ohtani reaches free agency next offseason, he’ll be 29. When Juan Soto follows two years later, he’ll be 26. They, too, might attain decade-plus-long contracts.
“There happens to be a bunch of really good players that happen to be young for free agents,” another assistant GM said. “That’s helping teams feel OK about it. Players aren’t spending a full year at every level. The system is getting them to the big leagues quicker and to free agency earlier. Giving out a decade-long contract — or even longer — at 28 or even 29 is much different than at 31 or 32. Players can perform at 40 or 41, especially with the [designated hitter] in both leagues. Maybe not as much at 43 or 45.”
The universal DH is certainly a factor, giving 15 additional teams — including the three to hand out 11-plus-year contracts this offseason — a chance to preserve players in their late 30s and early 40s. But the jury is still out on whether the production will ultimately hold up. Two of our most recent examples of mega-contracts saw Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols — before a 2022 renaissance — fade aggressively in the tail ends of their Hall of Fame careers. Eventually the same might be said for the likes of Judge, Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. But some of the sharpest minds in the industry are banking on their teams’ abilities to extend players’ primes through science and nutrition.
“We as an industry I think have gotten pretty sophisticated — whether that’s a good thing or not others can decide — about aging curves and projections and things like that,” Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said from the general managers meetings in early November, about a month before signing Correa for 13 years.
“Also just think about strength and conditioning, nutrition, all these areas — there’s been a lot of advancements, not just baseball-wise but across all sports. And using aging curves from 10, 20 years ago versus what players have access to now, you have to ask how relevant it is.”
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski echoed similar thoughts shortly after signing Turner for 11 years.
“We feel players have a better chance to play at later ages,” Dombrowski wrote in an email. “Our ability to work with players on conditioning methods, nutrition, physical fitness is so much better these days, and the players’ focus on achieving longer playing careers is extremely important.”
‘The Cohen Effect’
In the two years since Steve Cohen assumed control of the Mets, a theory has continued to circulate the industry: If they could do it over again, some rival owners would reconsider approving him. It’s clear to see why.
Under Cohen, the Mets’ competitive balance tax payroll has skyrocketed, finishing at about $295 million in 2022 and, after the Correa signing, trending in the neighborhood of $380 million in 2023. Cohen’s unmitigated aggressiveness, coupled with similar motivations by Padres chairman Peter Seidler and Phillies CEO John Middleton, has helped drive up the prices on free agents, and some believe it has pushed teams to spend at unprecedented rates.
In the words of one agent, “The right owners are in the mix for the World Series.”
“I think the market is correcting itself towards our side as owners get more competitive,” another agent said. “Call it ‘The Cohen Effect.’ Teams have to keep up with the arms race. With the new CBA, inflation, new revenue streams and three aggressive owners, the contracts are going up.”
In the offseasons that followed the 2016 to 2020 campaigns, teams spent an average of $1.6 billion per year on free agents, according to numbers maintained by Spotrac. Last year, that number rose to $3.2 billion. This year, it’s already at $3.5 billion.
“This is what we’ve been wanting for a while now,” one player involved in past labor issues wrote in a text message. “Now imagine if we can get all 30 teams to participate for the top players. A few owners are raising the top of the market. Hopefully the trickle-down continues.”
It may all be a product of ideal timing, the right owners reaching the ideal point in their franchises’ trajectories and capitalizing on a free agent market that is particularly flush with star talent.
This trend, like the others, may not last.
But look at teams such as the Giants and the Chicago Cubs, both of whom seem at least a year away from legitimate contention but have chased top-tier free agents nonetheless (the Giants famously whiffed on Judge and Correa, but the Cubs signed Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177 million contract that also exceeded industry expectations). Or the Texas Rangers, committing a combined $500 million to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien coming off a 102-loss season and then spending big again on Jacob deGrom this winter. Or the Phillies and Padres four years ago, locking up Harper and Manny Machado on $300 million-plus contracts to serve as the face of their next championship window.
Revenues reached $11 billion last year, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said during the World Series. The sale of the remaining stake in BamTech outfitted each owner with an additional $30 million and online gambling has brought in a major stream of new revenue. High-salary long-term deals have a history of ending poorly, and yet they’ve never been more popular.
One longtime scout might have explained it best with one sentence:
TALLADEGA, Ala. — Austin Cindric celebrated his first win of the season by wearing Talladega’s Superspeedway traditional victory wreath all around the track.
A wreath like he just won the Indianapolis 500.
He thought so, too.
“Feels like I just won the Indy 500,” he said of Sunday’s NASCAR race. “I’m trying to walk on the plane with this.”
Cindric wasn’t even concerned how such a gesture might be received by Team Penske teammate Joey Logano, who raged on his radio after the second stage when Cindric didn’t push him and it allowed Bubba Wallace in a Toyota to win the segment and its valuable bonus points.
“Way to go Austin,” seethed Logano, who used multiple expletives in his anger over his Penske radio. “You just gave it to him. Gave a Toyota a stage win. Nice job. Way to go … put that in the book.”
Cindric was unconcerned by the idea Logano might take issue with the wreath on the Penske plane.
“I think that would be very immature,” Cindric said. “I don’t see him doing that. We’ll see.”
It was a celebratory day for Cindric, who gave Team Penske its first NASCAR victory of the season by holding off a huge pack of challengers over the closing lap in a rare drama-free day at Talladega Superspeedway.
“Rock on, guys,” Cindric said over his radio. “Rock and roll. Let’s go!”
Ford drivers went 1-2, with Ryan Preece finishing second. But Preece and Logano were disqualified following postrace inspections because of spoiler infractions. Logano had crossed the finish line in fifth.
After the DQ’s, Kyle Larson moved up to second and William Byron third for Hendrick Motorsports. The two Chevrolet drivers pushed Cindric and Preece from the second row rather than pull out of line on the final lap and make a third lane in an attempt to win.
It was Larson’s best career finish at Talladega, where drafting and pack racing is required and neither suits his style. He said he wanted to make a move to try to take the win from Cindric but there was never any room.
“I wanted to take it but I felt like the gap was too big,” Larson said. “I was just stuck inside and just doing everything I could to advance our lane and maybe open it up to where I then could get to the outside. But we were all just pushing so equally that it kept the lanes jammed up.”
Noah Gragson ended up fourth in a Ford, while Hendrick driver Chase Elliott was fifth – two spots ahead of teammate Alex Bowman, with Carson Hocevar of Spire Motorsports sandwiched in between them. Wallace was the highest-finishing Toyota driver in eighth.
Cindric led five times but for only seven of the 188 laps in an unusually calm race for chaotic Talladega. The track last fall recorded the largest crash in the NASCAR history when 28 cars were collected in a demolition derby with four laps remaining.
On Sunday, there were only four cautions — two for stage breaks — totaling 22 laps. It was the fourth consecutive Talladega race with only four cautions, the two for stage breaks and the two for natural cautions.
But, Sunday featured season-highs in lead changes (67) among different drivers (23). Only five cars failed to finish from the 40-car field, and a whopping 30 drivers finished on the lead lap.
Cindric marked the 10th consecutive different winner at Talladega, extending the track record of no repeat winners. And, by the time it was over, Logano seemed to have calmed down.
“About time one of us wins these things,” Logano said of the Penske trio. “When you think about the amount of laps led by Team Penske and Ford in general, just haven’t been able to close. To see a couple of Fords on the front row duking it out, I wish one of them was me, in a selfish way. But it’s good to see those guys running up there and being able to click one off.”
Larson sets NASCAR record for stage wins
When he won the first stage at Talladega, it was the 67th of Larson’s career and made him NASCAR’s all-time stage winner. He broke a tie with Martin Truex Jr. with the stage win.
Stages were introduced in 2017 as a way to ensure natural breaks during races that allowed fans to rush to the bathroom or concession stand without missing any action. Cars typically make a pit stop during a stage break.
Teammate-on-teammate collision
Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, who combined to win five of the first nine races this season, had a collision on a restart that ensured Bell would not win his fourth race of the season.
It happened in the first stage of the race with Bell on the front row next to Chris Buescher on his inside, and with Hamlin behind him. As the cars revved to get up to speed at the green flag, Hamlin ran into the back of Bell, which caused him to turn into Buescher and create the second caution of the race.
Bell went to the garage, where he joined Ryan Blaney, Buescher and Brad Keselowski, all betting favorites who were done for the day before the end of the first stage.
“What in the hell? Man, apologies if that’s on me,” Hamlin radioed. “We weren’t even up to speed yet. I don’t know why that would have wrecked him. When he shot down to the bottom, I wasn’t even sure I was actually on him.”
Up Next
NASCAR races next week at Texas Motor Speedway, where Elliott scored his only win of the 2024 season last April.
However, Duran said Sunday that a fan in the front row near the Red Sox dugout in Cleveland said “something inappropriate” to him after the All-Star left fielder flied out in the seventh inning of a 13-3 victory over the Guardians.
Duran stayed on the top step of the dugout and glared at the fan as the inning played out. During the seventh-inning stretch, before the singing of “God Bless America,” Red Sox teammates and coaches kept Duran away from the area as umpires and Progressive Field security personnel gathered to handle the situation.
The fan tried to run up the aisle but was caught by security and taken out of the stadium.
“The fan just said something inappropriate. I’m just happy that the security handled it and the umpires were aware of it and they took care of it for me,” Duran said.
After the game, the Guardians released a statement apologizing to the Red Sox and Duran. The team said it had identified the fan and was working with Major League Baseball on next steps.
Duran said it was the first time he was taunted by a fan about his suicide attempt and mental health struggles since the Netflix series “The Clubhouse: A Year With the Red Sox” was released April 8.
“When you open yourself up like that, you also open yourself up to the enemies. But I have a good support staff around me, teammates, coaches. There were fans that were supporting me, so that was awesome,” he said.
Boston manager Alex Cora was in the opposite corner of the Red Sox dugout but lauded security for how the incident was handled.
Cora was even prouder of Duran’s restraint. Duran was suspended for two games last season when he directed an anti-gay slur at a heckling fan at Fenway Park when the fan shouted that Duran needed a tennis racket to hit.
“There’s a two-way street. That’s something I said last year. We made a mistake last year, and we learned from it. We grew up, you know, as an individual and as a group,” Cora said.
Sunday’s incident dampened what had been a solid game and series for Duran. He went 4-for-6 with an RBI and had at least three hits in consecutive games for the second time in his career.
In Saturday’s doubleheader nightcap, Duran had Boston’s first straight steal of home plate in 16 years.
Duran went 7-for-15 with three RBIs as Boston took two of three games in the weekend series. Six of his hits in the series came against lefties after Duran was just 3-for-31 against southpaws coming into the weekend.
“I’ve been getting some good swings on lefties lately, just hitting it right at guys. I’m trying to stay with my process, and it just happened to work good for me this series. So, I’m just going to keep at it,” said Duran, who has hit safely in 13 of his past 14 games and is batting .323 (20-for-62) with eight extra-base hits, including a home run, and six RBIs during that span.
Tkachuk’s hit, in the third period of his team’s 5-1 loss, received a five-minute major. According to sources, the NHL Department of Player Safety determined that was enough, considering Guentzel had recently touched the puck and Tkachuk didn’t make contact with Guentzel’s head.
The department also believed that the force in which Tkachuk hit Guentzel was far lesser than the hit Tampa’s Brandon Hagel made on Florida captain Aleksander Barkov in Game 2, which earned Hagel a one game suspension.
The plays led both coaches to trade jabs in the media. After Barkov went down in Game 2, Florida Panthers coach Paul Maurice said: “The only players we hit are the one with pucks.”
Barkov missed the end of the third period, but played in Game 3. Game 4 is Monday at Amerant Bank Arena.
At his postgame press conference, following Tkachuk’s hit on Guentzel, Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper deadpanned the exact same line as Maurice.
Tkachuk leads the series in scoring with three goals and an assist through three games. Guentzel has two goals and two assists for Tampa Bay.
The Battle of Florida is living up to the billing as one of the most contentious rivalries in hockey; either Tampa or Florida has made it to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the last five seasons.