IBM CEO Arvind Krishna speaks at an IBM facility in Poughkeepsie, New York, on Oct. 6, 2022. IBM announced $20 billion in investments during President Biden’s visit that will go toward research and development and the manufacturing of semiconductors, mainframe technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computing in the Hudson Valley.
Dana Ullman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
IBM isn’t often described as a hot company. But in a year that saw investors abandon all major tech stocks, Big Blue was in the green.
The Nasdaq is closing out its worst year since 2008. High gas prices, soaring inflation and the Federal Reserve’s steady pace of rate increases have punished growth stocks and favored more mature, less volatile names that are viewed as more recession-resistant.
Tech names that thrived during the Covid days suffered the most as the economy reopened and consumers returned to many of their old habits.
Among U.S. tech companies valued at $50 billion or more, IBM was one of only two to generate positive returns in 2022. As of Friday’s close, the stock was up 6% for the year. The other gainer is VMware, which is up 5% because it agreed in May to be acquired by Broadcom for $61 billion.
While Meta, Amazon and Tesla have been pummeled, investors turned to 111-year-old IBM, betting on its stable earnings, alongside energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil, health-care names including Merck and industrials Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin.
IBM beats Big Tech in 2022
CNBC
IBM is “trading well above its historical range,” Bernstein Research analysts wrote in a Dec. 20 note to clients. The firm has a hold rating on the stock.
Nobody will mistake IBM for a growth stock. Expansion is consistently in the single digits, and last year the company spun off Kyndryl, its managed infrastructure services business, into a separate publicly traded entity. That cut head count by about 90,000.
But IBM generated $752 million in free cash flow in the latest quarter, up 25% from a year earlier, and paid out $1.5 billion in dividends. Third-quarter earnings and revenue both topped estimates, and the company raised its forecast for the full year.
Crawford Investment Counsel in Atlanta, which focuses on income and dividends, looked at IBM in 2016 and concluded that it would be too early for a major investment, said Aaron Foresman, an equity analyst at the firm.
‘Much closer to their vision’
Crawford’s thesis changed in 2019, after IBM bought faster-growing Red Hat for $34 billion. The firm, which today has $6.7 billion under management, boosted its IBM stake from $2 million to $30 million and kept buying until its holdings reached $109 million.
IBM took a hybrid approach to the cloud under CEO Arvind Krishna, who succeeded Ginni Rometty at the helm in 2020. After struggling to gain scale as a cloud infrastructure provider, the company bet that enterprises would use on-premises data center infrastructure as well as the public cloud, rather than relying entirely on one approach or the other.
“Three years later, it’s much closer to their vision than everything on public cloud,” Foresman said. His firm sold 3% of its shares in the second and third quarter of this year.
Consulting remains a huge part of IBM’s business, accounting for one-third of revenue. In that realm, IBM partners with the big cloud providers, rather than strictly competing with them. The company has a backlog of business with Microsoft worth more than $1 billion, and an even bigger one with Amazon, Krishna said in a conversation with RBC CEO Dave McKay in November.
IBM also made technological advances in 2022, introducing the z16 mainframe computer. When a new mainframe hits, many clients upgrade. That leads to greater hardware revenue and highly profitable transaction processing software to run on the machines. IBM’s prior mainframe boom cycle started in September 2019.
While IBM stayed away from any splashy high-priced acquisitions this year, it announced some smaller deals to enhance certain capabilities. Earlier this month, IBM agreed to buy Octo, a consulting company based in Virginia that targets government agencies. Terms weren’t disclosed. It also absorbed consulting companies Dialexa and Sentaca this year.
Foresman described the purchases as an appropriate use of capital and “so small that they’re not necessarily disclosing transaction multiples.”
Still, Krishna recognizes that the economic backdrop isn’t ideal. He said in October that higher prices have led to “some caution creeping into the conversations” in Europe, where the company has to prepare for a downturn. In the Americas, where IBM gets about 53% of revenue, the business climate is “very robust,” he said.
The Bernstein analysts said the stock’s direction from here might simply ride on the state of the economy, rather than any major catalyst inside the company.
“Given its defensive characteristics and historical performance, we believe that IBM is likely to fare well if we continue to have pressured markets, and likely to lag major indices if we enter a recovery period,” they wrote.
IBM’s model through 2024 calls for mid-single-digit revenue growth, translating into free cash flow growth in the high single digits.
That’s good enough for investors who look for safety in their equity bets.
“Combined with mid-single-digit revenue growth, a couple points better than that on EPS and a 5% dividend yield is — you know, that’s not a home run, but it’s well within our expectations for what we’re trying to accomplish,” Foresman said.
OpenAI appears to be growing quickly despite increasing competition.
The San Francisco-based tech company had 400 million weekly active users as of February, up 33% from 300 million in December, the company’s chief operating officer, Brad Lightcap, told CNBC. These numbers have not been previously reported.
Lightcap pointed to the “natural progression” of ChatGPT as it becomes more useful and familiar to a broader group of people.
“People hear about it through word of mouth. They see the utility of it. They see their friends using it,” Lightcap said in an interview, adding that it takes time for individuals to find use cases that resonate. “There’s an overall effect of people really wanting these tools, and seeing that these tools are really valuable.”
OpenAI is seeing that spill over to its growing enterprise business. The company now has 2 million paying enterprise users, roughly doubling from September, said Lightcap, pointing out that often employees will use ChatGPT personally and suggest to their companies that they implement the tool.
“We get a lot of benefits, and a tail wind from the organic consumer adoption where people already have familiarity with the product,” he said. “There’s really healthy growth, on a different curve.”
Developer traffic has also doubled in the past six months, quintupling for the company’s “reasoning” model o3, according to Lightcap. Developers use OpenAI to integrate the technology into their own applications. OpenAI counts Uber, Morgan Stanley, Moderna and T-Mobile among some of its largest enterprise customers.
Lightcap likened this usage to cloud services, which Amazon Web Services pioneered two decades ago. While the consumer business may grow faster since people can adopt it at will, enterprise is in the “process of building up,” he said.
“There’s a buying cycle there, and a learning process that goes into scaling an enterprise business,” Lightcap said. “AI is going to be like cloud services. It’s going to be something that you can’t run a business that ultimately is not really running on these very powerful models underneath the surface.”
The DeepSeek effect
OpenAI’s growth comes amid new competition from Chinese competitor DeepSeek, which roiled tech markets in January as investors feared it would hamper future profitability of U.S. artificial intelligence companies and their dominance. Megacap tech companies were hit especially hard. Nvidia lost 17% on the Monday DeepSeek made waves, wiping off almost $600 billion in market value.
Later that week, OpenAI accused DeepSeek of improperly harvesting its models in a technique known as distillation. Lightcap said the new competition hasn’t changed the way OpenAI thinks about open source, their product road map or mega-spending plans.
“DeepSeek is a testament to how much AI is like entered the public consciousness in the mainstream — it would have been unfathomable two years ago,” he said. “It’s a moment that shows how powerful these models are and how much people really care.”
Besides DeepSeek’s emergence, OpenAI has also been dealing with a tense time on the legal front.
Billionaire Elon Musk, a company co-founder, has sued OpenAI for breach of contract as it attempts to convert into a for-profit. Microsoft has poured billions into the company while SoftBank is close to finalizing a $40 billion investment that could value the company at close to $300 billion, according to sources familiar with the deal.
Musk and a group of investors bid to buy the nonprofit’s assets for $97.4 billion earlier this month. In a letter to Musk’s attorney, OpenAI’s lawyer said the company’s board determined that Musk’s “much-publicized ‘bid’ is in fact not a bid at all.” OpenAI Chairman Bret Taylor said in a statement that the company “is not for sale.”
“The numbers tell the story,” Lightcap said. “We try to be very transparent about where we stand on all of this. (Musk) is a competitor. He’s competing. It’s an unorthodox way of competing.”
Oppo’s new Find N5 folding smartphone on display at a press briefing in London.
Ryan Browne | CNBC
Chinese smartphone firm Oppo has unveiled its new flagship folding phone Thursday, touting a slimmer body and artificial intelligence-focused features in a bid to compete with high-end foldable devices from the likes of Samsung and Huawei.
The company’s Find N5 phone that can fold in half, will retail at a starting price of 2,499 Singapore dollars ($1,867.70).
When it’s folded shut, the Find N5 looks like a normal bar-shaped phone with a 6.62-inch display. The device can then be folded outward to show a larger, 8.12-inch tablet.
Most notably, the phone has an ultra-thin design. When closed, it measures 8.93 millimeters thick, while when opened out in tablet form, the Find N5 has a depth of 4.21 millimeters.
Inside the device is a razer-thin 5,600 milliampere-hour (mAh) battery that’s no bigger than a credit card. Oppo said the battery incorporates a silicon-carbon material, which enables high battery capacity despite its small size.
Oppo is hoping it can win business from the likes of Samsung and Chinese tech giant Huawei, both major smartphone players seeking to shake the market out of an innovation slowdown with flashy new models that can bend.
AI assistant features
Like many other smartphone makers, Oppo is investing more into artificial intelligence-focused features on the device.
The Oppo Find N5 has a triple-camera setup that includes a telephoto lens that can zoom in up to 30x thanks to assistance from an AI-powered image enhancement feature, dubbed AI Telescope Zoom.
It also comes with a personal AI assistant that can interpret and summarize documents, generate summaries of phone calls and translate video calls and other content displayed on the screen.
Addressing concerns around privacy, Oppo said that some data is processed directly on the device while other information is stored in the cloud. In international markets, Oppo is using Google as its AI and cloud computing technology partner.
An Oppo spokesman told CNBC the company “strictly abides by local laws, regulations and privacy security protection requirements.”
Samsung recently launched additional AI capabilities on its new flagship Galaxy S25 series, including the ability to carry out tasks across multiple apps when prompted and integration of Google’s Gemini AI assistant.
Controlling a Mac with an Android phone
Oppo also talked up a new feature that enables users to connect their phone to a Mac computer. Using an app called O+ Connect, users can link the Find N5 to any Mac desktop machine and instantly transfer photos and other files between devices — so long as they’re connected to the same Wi-Fi network.
Users can also choose to remotely control a Mac from the Find N5. The Mac’s display can shut off and then reappear on the Find N5’s screen. The remote control feature only requires mobile internet or Wi-Fi to sync up a Mac device’s data with the Find N5 in real-time.
The feature uses public macOS application programming interfaces, which enable two different apps to communicate with each other. Oppo said O+ Connect “fully complies with macOS platform and software regulations.”
Ben Wood, chief analyst at market research firm CCS Insight, told CNBC the Find N5 “shows the art of the possible when engineering a product with flexible display technology.”
Wood added that, while Huawei’s triple-screened Mate XT led to some fanfare, “commercially I think the smart money is still on the book-like form factor already offered by Samsung, Honor, Google and now Oppo.”
Samsung teased a trifold smartphone prototype at its January Unpacked event for the launch of the Galaxy S25. It’s not clear yet if the phone is a product Samsung will launch commercially anytime soon.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson during a press conference on Jan. 17, 2025.
Florian Gaertner | Photothek | Getty Images
STOCKHOLM — Europe is at risk of becoming a “museum” if it doesn’t soften strict curbs on artificial intelligence technologies and deregulate, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Thursday.
“I think we really need to step up in Europe … the American economy, Chinese economy have been growing far faster compared to the European economies over the last 20 years,” the premier told attendees of the Techarena event in Stockholm.
“If we don’t change that, Europe will actually become some kind of a museum compared to other parts of the world,” he added.
Kristersson’s voice joins a chorus of European leaders who spoke at the Paris AI Action Summit last week, stressing the need for the region become a more competitive player in the global AI race.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a 109-billion-euro ($113.7 billion) investment in AI, which includes commitments from both foreign investors like the United Arab Emirates and U.S. American and Canadian investment funds, as well as domestic firms like Iliad, Orange and Thales.
Macron at the time compared the scale of the investment commitment to the $500 billion Stargate private AI investment venture announced by President Donald Trump last month.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also said that the EU would mobilize a total of 200 billion euros ($208.6 billion) for AI investments in Europe.
Against this backdrop, U.S. Vice President JD Vance took aim at Europe, arguing officials in the continent have become too heavily focused on regulating AI instead of embracing its growth potential.
Touting America as “the leader” in the technology, Vance said that the U.S. wants its European allies to foster a more favorable attitude to the technology than it has done to date.
“To create that kind of trust, we need international regulatory regimes that fosters the creation of AI technology rather than strangles it, and we need our European friends in particular to look to this new frontier with optimism rather than trepidation,” Vance told attendees at the Paris summit.
‘Not good enough’
Tech executives have previously criticized the EU for taking too strict a regulatory approach to AI. The bloc’s landmark AI Act, which became enforceable this year, is the first comprehensive set of rules aimed at safeguarding against risks posed AI.
“To be able to compete in the new geopolitical context, Europe needs to become a place where business and innovation can thrive,” Kristersson said Thursday. “That means less regulation. That means more access to capital and talent.”
He added, “As it stands now, we’ve got companies having troubles using the latest technology due to uncertainties with the European legislation, companies founded in Europe relocating to the U.S. due to the lack of access to capital. That is simply not good enough.”