IBM CEO Arvind Krishna speaks at an IBM facility in Poughkeepsie, New York, on Oct. 6, 2022. IBM announced $20 billion in investments during President Biden’s visit that will go toward research and development and the manufacturing of semiconductors, mainframe technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computing in the Hudson Valley.
Dana Ullman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
IBM isn’t often described as a hot company. But in a year that saw investors abandon all major tech stocks, Big Blue was in the green.
The Nasdaq is closing out its worst year since 2008. High gas prices, soaring inflation and the Federal Reserve’s steady pace of rate increases have punished growth stocks and favored more mature, less volatile names that are viewed as more recession-resistant.
Tech names that thrived during the Covid days suffered the most as the economy reopened and consumers returned to many of their old habits.
Among U.S. tech companies valued at $50 billion or more, IBM was one of only two to generate positive returns in 2022. As of Friday’s close, the stock was up 6% for the year. The other gainer is VMware, which is up 5% because it agreed in May to be acquired by Broadcom for $61 billion.
While Meta, Amazon and Tesla have been pummeled, investors turned to 111-year-old IBM, betting on its stable earnings, alongside energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil, health-care names including Merck and industrials Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin.
IBM beats Big Tech in 2022
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IBM is “trading well above its historical range,” Bernstein Research analysts wrote in a Dec. 20 note to clients. The firm has a hold rating on the stock.
Nobody will mistake IBM for a growth stock. Expansion is consistently in the single digits, and last year the company spun off Kyndryl, its managed infrastructure services business, into a separate publicly traded entity. That cut head count by about 90,000.
But IBM generated $752 million in free cash flow in the latest quarter, up 25% from a year earlier, and paid out $1.5 billion in dividends. Third-quarter earnings and revenue both topped estimates, and the company raised its forecast for the full year.
Crawford Investment Counsel in Atlanta, which focuses on income and dividends, looked at IBM in 2016 and concluded that it would be too early for a major investment, said Aaron Foresman, an equity analyst at the firm.
‘Much closer to their vision’
Crawford’s thesis changed in 2019, after IBM bought faster-growing Red Hat for $34 billion. The firm, which today has $6.7 billion under management, boosted its IBM stake from $2 million to $30 million and kept buying until its holdings reached $109 million.
IBM took a hybrid approach to the cloud under CEO Arvind Krishna, who succeeded Ginni Rometty at the helm in 2020. After struggling to gain scale as a cloud infrastructure provider, the company bet that enterprises would use on-premises data center infrastructure as well as the public cloud, rather than relying entirely on one approach or the other.
“Three years later, it’s much closer to their vision than everything on public cloud,” Foresman said. His firm sold 3% of its shares in the second and third quarter of this year.
Consulting remains a huge part of IBM’s business, accounting for one-third of revenue. In that realm, IBM partners with the big cloud providers, rather than strictly competing with them. The company has a backlog of business with Microsoft worth more than $1 billion, and an even bigger one with Amazon, Krishna said in a conversation with RBC CEO Dave McKay in November.
IBM also made technological advances in 2022, introducing the z16 mainframe computer. When a new mainframe hits, many clients upgrade. That leads to greater hardware revenue and highly profitable transaction processing software to run on the machines. IBM’s prior mainframe boom cycle started in September 2019.
While IBM stayed away from any splashy high-priced acquisitions this year, it announced some smaller deals to enhance certain capabilities. Earlier this month, IBM agreed to buy Octo, a consulting company based in Virginia that targets government agencies. Terms weren’t disclosed. It also absorbed consulting companies Dialexa and Sentaca this year.
Foresman described the purchases as an appropriate use of capital and “so small that they’re not necessarily disclosing transaction multiples.”
Still, Krishna recognizes that the economic backdrop isn’t ideal. He said in October that higher prices have led to “some caution creeping into the conversations” in Europe, where the company has to prepare for a downturn. In the Americas, where IBM gets about 53% of revenue, the business climate is “very robust,” he said.
The Bernstein analysts said the stock’s direction from here might simply ride on the state of the economy, rather than any major catalyst inside the company.
“Given its defensive characteristics and historical performance, we believe that IBM is likely to fare well if we continue to have pressured markets, and likely to lag major indices if we enter a recovery period,” they wrote.
IBM’s model through 2024 calls for mid-single-digit revenue growth, translating into free cash flow growth in the high single digits.
That’s good enough for investors who look for safety in their equity bets.
“Combined with mid-single-digit revenue growth, a couple points better than that on EPS and a 5% dividend yield is — you know, that’s not a home run, but it’s well within our expectations for what we’re trying to accomplish,” Foresman said.
CEO of Meta and Facebook Mark Zuckerberg, Lauren Sanchez, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attend the inauguration ceremony before Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th U.S. president in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda in Washington, Jan. 20, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Via Reuters
Technology stocks plummeted Thursday after President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies sparked widespread market panic.
Apple led the declines among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” group, dropping nearly 9%. The iPhone maker makes its devices in China and other Asian countries. The stock is on pace for its steepest drop since 2020.
Other megacaps also felt the pressure. Meta Platforms and Amazon fell more than 7% each, while Nvidia and Tesla slumped more than 5%. Nvidia builds its new chips in Taiwan and relies on Mexico for assembling its artificial intelligence systems. Microsoft and Alphabet both fell about 2%.
The drop in technology stocks came amid a broader market selloff spurred by fears of a global trade war after Trump unveiled a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods and a range of higher duties targeting specific countries after the bell Wednesday. He said the new tariffs would be a “declaration of economic independence” for the U.S.
Companies and countries worldwide have already begun responding to the wide-sweeping policy, which included a 34% tariff on China stacked on a previous 20% tax, a 46% duty on Vietnam and a 20% levy on imports from the European Union.
China’s Ministry of Commerce urged the U.S. to “immediately cancel” the unilateral tariff measures and said it would take “resolute counter-measures.”
The tariffs come on the heels of a rough quarter for the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the worst period for the index since 2022. Stocks across the board have come under pressure over concerns of a weakening U.S. economy. The Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 5% on Thursday, bringing its year-to-date loss to 13%.
Trump applauded some megacap technology companies for investing money into the U.S. during his speech, calling attention to Apple’s plan to spend $500 billion over the next four years.
Zach Perret, CEO and co-founder of Plaid, speaks during the Silicon Slopes Tech Summit in Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S., on Jan. 31, 2020.
George Frey | Bloomberg via Getty Images
Plaid on Thursday announced a new funding round that values the fintech startup at $6 billion, down from $13.4 billion in 2021. The new funding will give some employees a way to cash out.
The $575 million round was led by a batch of new investors including Franklin Templeton, Fidelity and BlackRock. Existing backers NEA and Ribbit Capital also participated, Plaid said.
Plaid CEO Zach Perret said the startup saw a “substantial” growth year with record revenue and positive operating margins, though he did not provide specifics. The downsized valuation is a reflection of market conditions, he said.
“The reality is our business is much stronger and revenue has grown quite substantially,” Perret told CNBC. “The profitability of business has gotten quite a lot better, and yet we are impacted by market multiples, as many companies are.”
Plaid is “not ready” for an IPO quite yet, but this round will be the last private fundraise until the company lists on public markets, he said.
“An IPO is absolutely on our path for the coming years. We haven’t assigned a specific timeline to it,” Perret said. “We still have a lot of internal work to do. We’re not ready, which is why we didn’t consider it right now.”
Rise of secondary rounds
Plaid’s new funding allows employees to cash out of restricted stock units that expire at the end of the year. The startup will also use a portion of the proceeds to enable an employee tender offer.
“That’s the motivation for the round,” Perret said. “We think it’s important to give our employees options to sell and the ability to have liquidity, especially given that Plaid has been private for so long.”
Plaid is the latest in a string of late-stage, private deals designed to enable employees to cash out in private markets. Ramp, DataBricks, OpenAI and Stripe have all announced secondary financings that were designed to let some employees get liquidity. Few of those companies seem eager to wade into public markets. Recent volatility around stocks and lackluster performance of recent IPOs, including CoreWeave’s last week, has kept some companies on the sidelines.
“Volatility is definitely going to be one of the key factors,” Perret said, adding that it was too early to assess IPO market conditions for Plaid.
The startup has been on a roller coaster in private markets since it was founded a decade ago. Plaid was set to be bought by Visa for $5 billion in 2020 in a deal that was eventually called off amid regulatory scrutiny. The following year, it raised money at a $13.4 billion valuation. That also marked the peak for growth and technology valuations before the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates.
Plaid provides the plumbing to connect consumer bank accounts to popular finance apps. Its APIs let consumers link their bank accounts to services like Venmo, Robinhood and Coinbase. Since then, it’s expanded into direct bill pay, cyber security and data analytics. It also partners with major banks.
Cybersecurity is one of Plaid’s largest growth areas, Perret said. He pointed to financial fraud growing at 20% to 25% per year as a result of the boom in artificial intelligence.
“We’ve been leaning in to try to build tools to combat deep fakes and a lot of AI-driven financial fraud,” he said. “Unfortunately, this is a large market opportunity. It’s something that we’d actually like to be smaller. But it’s been an area of growth.”
Apple’s iPhone 16 at an Apple Store on Regent Street in London on Sept. 20, 2024.
Rasid Necati Aslim | Anadolu | Getty Images
Apple has made moves to diversify its supply chain beyond China to places like India and Vietnam, but tariffs announced by the White House are set to hit those countries too.
China will face a 34% tariff, but with the existing 20% rate, that brings the true tariff rate on Beijing under this Trump term to 54%, CNBC reported. India faces a 26% tariff, while Vietnam’s rate is 46%.
Apple was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
Here’s a breakdown on Apple’s supply chain footprint that could be affected by tariffs.
China
The majority of Apple’s iPhones are still assembled in China by partner Foxconn.
China accounts for around 80% of Apple’s production capacity, according to estimates from Evercore ISI in a note last month.
Around 90% of iPhones are assembled in China, Evercore ISI said.
While the number of manufacturing sites in China dropped between Apple’s 2017 and 2020 fiscal year, it has since rebounded, Bernstein said in a note last month. Chinese suppliers account for around 40% of Apple’s total, Bernstein said.
Evercore ISI estimates that 55% of Apple’s Mac products and 80% of iPads are assembled in China.
India
Apple is targeting around 25% of all iPhones globally to be made in India, a government minister said in 2023.
India could reach about 15%-20% of overall iPhone production by the end of 2025, Bernstein analysts estimate. Evercore ISI said around 10% to 15% of iPhones are currently assembled in India.
Vietnam
Vietnam has emerged in the past few years as a popular manufacturing hub for consumer electronics. Apple has increased its production in Vietnam.
Around 20% of iPad production and 90% of Apple’s wearable product assembly like the Apple Watch takes place in Vietnam, according to Evercore ISI.
Other key countries
Malaysia is a growing manufacturing location for Apple for Macs and is facing a 25% tariff. Thailand is also a small hub for Mac production and will be hit with a 36% levy.
Apple also sources components from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the United States. Components may be shipped from one country to another before assembly takes place in China or elsewhere.
In February, Apple announced plans to open a new factory for artificial intelligence servers in Texas as part of a $500 billion investment in the U.S.
However, Apple does not have mass production in the United states. It produces only the Mac Pro in Texas.