Islamic State still a threat and seeking to free 10,000 of its jailed fighters, experts say
While it no longer controls vast swathes of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State remains a threat and will seek to spring 10,000 of its fighters from Syrian prisons in 2023, experts say.
The infamous terror group is much diminished from its peak in 2014 but it remains a menace in a volatile part of the Middle East, as well as abroad in Afghanistan and parts of Africa.
What is more, there are fears that a possible ground offensive by Turkey in Syria could create the perfect conditions for IS to once again seize power.
“Blink and you’ll miss it and suddenly ISIS will be back,” says Middle East expert Dr Shiraz Maher.
In a year where other stories have dominated the headlines, Sky News looks into what IS has been doing, and whether huge tracts of territory could once again fall under its flag.
Since its last bastions in Syria fell to Western-backed forces, IS has been operating at a “greatly diminished” level, according to terror expert Matthew Henman.
He said: “But the level of threat, the level of operational activity, has stayed reasonably consistent over that kind of period.
“In various key theatres the group has maintained a steady tempo of insurgent violence.”
Mr Henman, who works for the Janes intelligence agency, said the group and its affiliates further afield are focused on exploiting regional instabilities and still have designs on seizing territory.
The Islamic State flag seen flying in central Rawah, Iraq. Pic: AP
Seeking to seize territory in parts of Africa
Several branches, or provinces, of IS exist across the Middle East and Africa. Each has its own regional leader who then pledges allegiance to the overall IS leader.
Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurayshi is the current leader of IS after his predecessor blew himself up in October as Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters closed in.
At its height the so-called IS caliphate held sway over about a third of Syria and 40% of Iraq – a territory larger than Iceland.
In recent years much of the groups focus has turned to west Africa, Mr Henman says, where it has been met with multinational taskforces seeking to stop it gaining a proper foothold.
In Afghanistan the group’s regional affiliate – known as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province – has increased its attacks since the Taliban regained power.
Earlier this month, China advised its citizens to leave the country following a co-ordinated attack by Islamic State militants on a Chinese-owned hotel in the heart of Kabul.
Smoke rises from the last besieged Islamic State stronghold in Baghuz in March 2019
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Efforts to free thousands of imprisoned militants
But the danger of IS activity in Iraq and Syria remains, despite its diminished presence.
Some 70,000 people with suspected links to the group, including women and children and around 10,000 IS militants, are being held by Kurdish forces in north east Syria.
IS has been clear that it intends to free its supporters. In January it used vehicles and explosives to ram through the walls of Gweiran Prison in Hassakeh in a bid to free the 3,000 held there.
Dr Shiraz Maher, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, says the risk of IS freeing thousands of imprisoned fighters is the “single greatest security threat to the West”.
He told Sky News: “The Syrian Democratic Forces have repeatedly said that this is a ticking time bomb that they are sitting on (that) they are not capable of dealing with themselves alone.”
Many of those being held by SDF forces are foreign fighters, but many nations have been reluctant to deal with them.
The delicate situation could be put at risk if Turkey carries out its threat of a land invasion targeting Kurdish forces, Dr Maher warned.
Such a development may force Kurdish authorities to divert resources currently guarding its network of detention centres to the front line, creating a “massive ability” for IS to free its supporters.
“We need to think creatively and have some courage in dealing with this issue and nipping it in the bud right now,” Dr Maher said.
“If ISIS return to Syria and Iraq, people will die on the streets of Berlin, London and Madrid.”
World
UN’s Antonio Guterres condemns ‘teaspoon’ of aid allowed into Gaza after dozens die in airstrikes
The head of the UN has said Israel has only authorised for Gaza what amounts to a “teaspoon” of aid after at least 60 people died in overnight airstrikes.
UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said on Friday the supplies approved so far “amounts to a teaspoon of aid when a flood of assistance is required,” adding “the needs are massive and the obstacles are staggering”.
He warned that more people will die unless there is “rapid, reliable, safe and sustained aid access”.
A woman at the site of an Israeli strike in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
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Gaza: ‘Loads of children with huge burns’
Israel says around 300 aid trucks have been allowed through since it lifted an 11-week blockade on Monday, but according to Mr Guterres, only about a third have been transported to warehouses within Gaza due to insecurity.
The IDF said 107 vehicles carrying flour, food, medical equipment and drugs were allowed through on Thursday.
Many of Gaza’s two million residents are at high risk of famine, experts have warned.
Meanwhile, at least 60 people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes across Gaza overnight.
Ten people died in the southern city of Khan Younis, and deaths were also reported in the central town of Deir al-Balah and the Jabaliya refugee camp in the north, according to the Nasser, Al-Aqsa and Al-Ahli hospitals where the bodies were brought.
A body is carried out of rubble after an Israeli strike in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
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‘Almost everyone depends on aid’ in Gaza
The latest strikes came a day after two Israeli embassy workers were killed in Washington.
The suspect, named as 31-year-old Elias Rodriguez from Chicago, Illinois, told police he “did it for Gaza”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Mark Carney of fuelling antisemitism following the shootings.
The leaders of the UK, France and Canada are “on the wrong side of humanity and (…) history”, he said, after they threatened “concrete action” against Israel this week if it continues its “egregious” military operations in Gaza.
Mr Netanyahu also accused Sir Keir, Mr Macron and Mr Carney of siding with “mass murderers, rapists, baby killers and kidnappers”.
Palestinians search for casualties in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
But UK government minister Luke Pollard told Sky News on Friday morning he “doesn’t recognise” Mr Netanyahu’s accusation.
Earlier this week, Mr Netanyahu said he was recalling negotiators from the Qatari capital, Doha, after a week of ceasefire talks failed to bring results. A working team will remain.
The war in Gaza began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251 others.
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The militants are still holding 58 captives, around a third of whom are believed to be alive, after most of the rest were returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Israel’s offensive, which has destroyed large swaths of Gaza, has killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.
A woman has been arrested after 12 people were reportedly injured in a stabbing at Hamburg’s central train station in Germany.
An attacker armed with a knife targeted people on the platform between tracks 13 and 14, according to police.
They added that the suspect was a 39-year-old woman.
Police at the scene. Pic: AP
Officers said they “believe she acted alone” and investigations into the stabbing are continuing.
There was no immediate information on a possible motive.
The fire service said six of the injured were in a life-threatening condition, three others were seriously hurt, and another three sustained minor injuries, news agency dpa reported.
The attack happened shortly after 6pm local time (5pm UK time) on Friday in front of a waiting train, regional public broadcaster NDR reported.
A high-speed ICE train with its doors open could be seen at the platform after the incident.
Railway operator Deutsche Bahn said it was “deeply shocked” by what had happened.
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Four tracks at the station were closed in the evening, and some long-distance trains were delayed or diverted.
Hamburg is Germany‘s second biggest city, with the train station being a hub for local, regional and long-distance trains.
In mid-May, the World Health Organisation assessed that there were “nearly half a million people in a catastrophic situation of hunger, acute malnutrition, starvation, illness and death”.
“This is one of the world’s worst hunger crises, unfolding in real time,” its report concluded.
Warning: This article contains images of an emaciated child which some readers may find distressing
Israel‘s decision this week to reverse the siege and allow “a basic level of aid” into Gaza should help ease the immediate crisis.
But the number of aid trucks getting in, so far fewer than 100 per day, is considered dramatically too few by aid organisations working in Gaza, and the United Nations accuses Israel of continuing to block vital items.
Israel-Gaza latest: Gaza enduring ‘atrocious death and destruction’, UN boss warns
“Strict quotas are being imposed on the goods we distribute, along with unnecessary delay procedures,” said UN secretary general Antonio Guterres in New York on Friday.
“Essentials, including fuel, shelter, cooking gas and water purification supplies, are prohibited. Nothing has reached the besieged north.”
Nineteen of Gaza’s hospitals remain operational, all of them are overwhelmed with the number of patients and a lack of supplies.
Baby Aya at Rantisi hospital in northern Gaza is dangerously thin
“Today, we receive between 300 to 500 cases daily, with approximately 10% requiring admission. This volume of inpatient cases far exceeds the capacity of Rantisi hospital, as the facility is not equipped to accommodate such large numbers,” Jall al Barawi, a doctor at the hospital, told us.
At least 94% of the hospitals have sustained some damage, some considerable, according to the UN.
Jall al Barawi, a doctor at Rantisi hospital
Paramedic crews are close to running out of fuel to drive ambulances.
The lack of food, after an 11-week blockade, has left thousands malnourished and increasingly vulnerable to surviving injuries or recovering from other conditions.
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Children are the worst affected.
Our team in Gaza filmed with baby Aya at the Rantisi hospital in northern Gaza. She is now three months old and dangerously thin.
Her skin stretches over her cheekbones and eye sockets on her gaunt, pale face. Her nappy is too big for her emaciated little body.
Aya’s nappy is too big for her emaciated little body.
Lethal spiral
Her mother Sundush, who is only 19 herself, cannot get enough food to produce breastmilk. Baby formula is scarce.
Aya, like so many other young children, cannot get the vital nutrition she needs to grow and develop.
It’s a lethal spiral.
This is what Aya looked like shortly after she was born
“My daughter was born at a normal weight, 3.5kg,” Sundush tells us.
“But as the war went on, her weight dropped significantly. I would breastfeed her, she’d get diarrhoea. I tried formula – same result. With the borders closed and no food coming in, I can’t eat enough to give her the nutrients she needs.”
“I brought her to the hospital for treatment, but the care she needs isn’t available.
“The doctor said her condition is very serious. I really don’t want to lose her, because I lost my husband and she’s all I have left of him. I don’t want to lose her.”
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Aya and her mother Sundush
Some of the aid entering Gaza now is being looted. It is hard to know whether that is by Hamas or desperate civilians. Maybe a combination of the two.
The lack of aid creates an atmosphere of desperation, which eventually leads to a breakdown in security as everyone fights to secure food for themselves and their families.
Only by alleviating the desperation can the security situation improve, and the risk of famine abate.
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