Islamic State still a threat and seeking to free 10,000 of its jailed fighters, experts say
While it no longer controls vast swathes of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State remains a threat and will seek to spring 10,000 of its fighters from Syrian prisons in 2023, experts say.
The infamous terror group is much diminished from its peak in 2014 but it remains a menace in a volatile part of the Middle East, as well as abroad in Afghanistan and parts of Africa.
What is more, there are fears that a possible ground offensive by Turkey in Syria could create the perfect conditions for IS to once again seize power.
“Blink and you’ll miss it and suddenly ISIS will be back,” says Middle East expert Dr Shiraz Maher.
In a year where other stories have dominated the headlines, Sky News looks into what IS has been doing, and whether huge tracts of territory could once again fall under its flag.
Since its last bastions in Syria fell to Western-backed forces, IS has been operating at a “greatly diminished” level, according to terror expert Matthew Henman.
He said: “But the level of threat, the level of operational activity, has stayed reasonably consistent over that kind of period.
“In various key theatres the group has maintained a steady tempo of insurgent violence.”
Mr Henman, who works for the Janes intelligence agency, said the group and its affiliates further afield are focused on exploiting regional instabilities and still have designs on seizing territory.
The Islamic State flag seen flying in central Rawah, Iraq. Pic: AP
Seeking to seize territory in parts of Africa
Several branches, or provinces, of IS exist across the Middle East and Africa. Each has its own regional leader who then pledges allegiance to the overall IS leader.
Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurayshi is the current leader of IS after his predecessor blew himself up in October as Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters closed in.
At its height the so-called IS caliphate held sway over about a third of Syria and 40% of Iraq – a territory larger than Iceland.
In recent years much of the groups focus has turned to west Africa, Mr Henman says, where it has been met with multinational taskforces seeking to stop it gaining a proper foothold.
In Afghanistan the group’s regional affiliate – known as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province – has increased its attacks since the Taliban regained power.
Earlier this month, China advised its citizens to leave the country following a co-ordinated attack by Islamic State militants on a Chinese-owned hotel in the heart of Kabul.
Smoke rises from the last besieged Islamic State stronghold in Baghuz in March 2019
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Efforts to free thousands of imprisoned militants
But the danger of IS activity in Iraq and Syria remains, despite its diminished presence.
Some 70,000 people with suspected links to the group, including women and children and around 10,000 IS militants, are being held by Kurdish forces in north east Syria.
IS has been clear that it intends to free its supporters. In January it used vehicles and explosives to ram through the walls of Gweiran Prison in Hassakeh in a bid to free the 3,000 held there.
Dr Shiraz Maher, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, says the risk of IS freeing thousands of imprisoned fighters is the “single greatest security threat to the West”.
He told Sky News: “The Syrian Democratic Forces have repeatedly said that this is a ticking time bomb that they are sitting on (that) they are not capable of dealing with themselves alone.”
Many of those being held by SDF forces are foreign fighters, but many nations have been reluctant to deal with them.
The delicate situation could be put at risk if Turkey carries out its threat of a land invasion targeting Kurdish forces, Dr Maher warned.
Such a development may force Kurdish authorities to divert resources currently guarding its network of detention centres to the front line, creating a “massive ability” for IS to free its supporters.
“We need to think creatively and have some courage in dealing with this issue and nipping it in the bud right now,” Dr Maher said.
“If ISIS return to Syria and Iraq, people will die on the streets of Berlin, London and Madrid.”
A report into the deadly Lisbon Gloria funicular crash has said the cable linking the two carriages snapped.
The carriages of the city’s iconic Gloria funicular had travelled no more than six metres when they “suddenly lost the balancing force of the connecting cable”.
The vehicle’s brake‑guard immediately “activated the pneumatic brake as well as the manual brake”, the Office for the Prevention and Investigation of Aircraft Accidents and Railway Accidents said.
Flowers for the victims in Lisbon. Pic: AP
Pic: AP
But the measures “had no effect in reducing the vehicle’s speed”, as it accelerated and crashed at around 60kmh (37mph), and the disaster unfolded in less than 50 seconds.
Questions have been asked about the maintenance of the equipment, but the report said that, based on the evidence seen so far, it was up to date.
A scheduled visual inspection had been carried out on the morning of the accident, but the area where the cable broke “is not visible without dismantling.”
The Gloria funicular is a national monument that dates from 1914 and is very popular with tourists visiting the Portuguese capital.
The Gloria funicular connects Lisbon’s Restauradores Square to the Bairro Alto viewpoint
It operates between Restauradores Square in downtown Lisbon and the Bairro Alto neighbourhood.
The journey is just 276m (905ft) and takes just over a minute, but it operates up a steep hill, with two carriages travelling in opposite directions.
How the disaster unfolded
At around 6pm on Wednesday, Cabin No.2, at the bottom of the funicular, “jerked backward sharply”, the report said.
“After moving roughly 10 metres, its movement stopped as it partially left the tracks and its trolley became buried at the lower end of the cable channel.”
Cabin No.1, at the top, “continued descending and accelerated” before derailing and smashing “sideways into the wall of a building on the left side, destroying the wooden box [from which the carriage is constructed]”.
It crashed into a cast‑iron streetlamp and a support pole, causing “significant damage” before hitting “the corner of another building”.
Cable failed at top
Analysis of the wreckage showed the cable connecting the cabins failed where it was attached inside the upper trolley of cabin No.1 at the top.
The cable’s specified useful life is 600 days and at the time of the accident, it had been used for 337 days, leaving another 263 days before needing to be replaced.
The operating company regards this life expectancy as having “a significant safety margin”.
The exact number of people aboard each cabin when it crashed has not been confirmed.
Britons killed in disaster
Kayleigh Smith, 36, and William Nelson, 44, died alongside 14 others in Wednesday’s incident, including another British victim who has not yet been named.
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Five Portuguese citizens died when the packed carriage plummeted out of control – four of them workers at a charity on the hill – but most victims were foreigners.
Any remaining residents in Gaza’s largest city should leave for a designated area in the south, Israel’s military has warned.
Israeli forces are carrying out an offensive on suburbs of Gaza City, in the territory’s north, as part of plans to capture it – raising concern over an already-devastating humanitarian crisis.
While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced pressure to stop the attack and allow more aid in, the military has announced a new humanitarian zone in the south.
Spokesperson Avichay Adraee said Gaza City residents should head to a designated coastal area of Khan Younis.
There, he said they would be able to receive food, medical care and shelter.
On Thursday, Israel said it has control of around 40% of Gaza City and 75% of the entire territory of Gaza.
Many of the city’s residents had already been displaced earlier in the war, only to return later. Some of them have said they will refuse to move again.
That’s despite the military claiming it is within a few kilometres of the city centre, coming after weeks of heavy strikes.
But the war in Gaza has left Israel increasingly isolated in the diplomatic sphere, with some of its closest allies condemning the campaign that’s devastated the territory.
Just two weeks ago, a famine was declared in Gaza City and surrounding areas by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a globally recognised system for classifying the severity of food insecurity.
A resident runs with his belongings in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
There is also concern within Israel, where calls have grown to stop the war and secure the release of the remaining 48 hostages.
Israel believes 20 of those hostages are still alive.
Even as relatives of those hostages lead protests, Mr Netanyahu continues to push for an all-or-nothing deal to release all hostages and defeat Hamas.
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On Friday, Donald Trump said Washington is in “very deep” negotiations with Hamas to release the captives.
“We said let them all out, right now let them all out. And much better things will happen for them but if you don’t let them all out, it’s going to be a tough situation, it’s going to be nasty,” he added.
Hamas is “asking for some things that are fine”, he said, without elaborating.
A man was heard screaming in the water moments before he died after a shark attack in Sydney, witnesses have said.
Emergency services responded to reports that a man in his 50s had suffered critical injuries at Long Reef Beach shortly after 10am (1am in the UK) on Saturday.
The man, whose identity has yet to be confirmed, was brought to shore but died at the scene, authorities have said.
Two sections of a surfboard have been recovered and taken for examination, and beaches near the area are closed as drones search for the animal.
Police are liaising with wildlife experts to determine the species of shark involved.
Pic: Sky News Australia
Surfer screamed ‘don’t bite me’
Speaking to Sky News Australia, witness Mark Morgenthal said he saw the attack and that the shark was one of the biggest he had ever seen.
“There was a guy screaming, ‘I don’t want to get bitten, I don’t want to get bitten, don’t bite me,’ and I saw the dorsal fin of the shark come up, and it was huge,” Mr Morgenthal said.
“Then I saw the tail fin come up and start kicking, and the distance between the dorsal fin and the tail fin looked to be about four metres, so it actually looked like a six-metre shark.”
Mark Morgenthal said it ‘looked like a six metre shark’ in the attack. Pic: Sky News Australia
Victim was a father and experienced surfer
New South Wales Police Superintendent John Duncan said at a press conference that the victim was 57 years old, calling the incident a “terrible tragedy”.
“The gentleman had gone out about 9.30 this morning with some of his friends, about five or six of his mates,” he added. “He’s an experienced surfer that we understand.
“Unfortunately, it would appear that a large, what we believe to be a shark, has attacked him. And as a result of that, he lost a number of limbs.
“His colleagues managed to make it back to the beach safely, and a short time later, his body was found floating in the surf, and a couple of other people went out and recovered it.”
Mr Duncan added that officers “understand he leaves behind a wife and a young daughter… and obviously tomorrow being Father’s Day is particularly critical and particularly tragic”.
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Local surfer and eyewitness Bill Sakula also told reporters at the beach: “It’s going to send shockwaves through the community.
“Everyone is going to be a little bit nervous for a while.”
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Surf Life Saving NSW has deployed a drone to search for further shark activity.
Its chief executive Steve Pearce said: “Our deepest condolences go to the family of the man involved in this terrible tragedy.”
Shark attacks are very rare, with this incident widely thought to be the first in New South Wales this year.
The last time a person in Sydney was killed in a shark attack was in February 2022 – the city’s first fatal shark attack since 1963.
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