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While it no longer controls vast swathes of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State remains a threat and will seek to spring 10,000 of its fighters from Syrian prisons in 2023, experts say.

The infamous terror group is much diminished from its peak in 2014 but it remains a menace in a volatile part of the Middle East, as well as abroad in Afghanistan and parts of Africa.

What is more, there are fears that a possible ground offensive by Turkey in Syria could create the perfect conditions for IS to once again seize power.

“Blink and you’ll miss it and suddenly ISIS will be back,” says Middle East expert Dr Shiraz Maher.

In a year where other stories have dominated the headlines, Sky News looks into what IS has been doing, and whether huge tracts of territory could once again fall under its flag.

Since its last bastions in Syria fell to Western-backed forces, IS has been operating at a “greatly diminished” level, according to terror expert Matthew Henman.

He said: “But the level of threat, the level of operational activity, has stayed reasonably consistent over that kind of period.

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“In various key theatres the group has maintained a steady tempo of insurgent violence.”

Mr Henman, who works for the Janes intelligence agency, said the group and its affiliates further afield are focused on exploiting regional instabilities and still have designs on seizing territory.

FILE - This Tuesday, July 22, 2014 file photo shows a motorist passing by a flag of the Islamic State group in central Rawah, 175 miles (281 kilometers) northwest of Baghdad, Iraq. Iraq’s Defense Ministry said Friday, Nov. 17, 2017 Iraqi forces have retaken the last IS-held town in the country, more than three years after the militant group stormed nearly a third of Iraqi territory.(AP Photo, File)
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The Islamic State flag seen flying in central Rawah, Iraq. Pic: AP

Seeking to seize territory in parts of Africa

Several branches, or provinces, of IS exist across the Middle East and Africa. Each has its own regional leader who then pledges allegiance to the overall IS leader.

Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurayshi is the current leader of IS after his predecessor blew himself up in October as Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters closed in.

At its height the so-called IS caliphate held sway over about a third of Syria and 40% of Iraq – a territory larger than Iceland.

In recent years much of the groups focus has turned to west Africa, Mr Henman says, where it has been met with multinational taskforces seeking to stop it gaining a proper foothold.

In Afghanistan the group’s regional affiliate – known as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province – has increased its attacks since the Taliban regained power.

Earlier this month, China advised its citizens to leave the country following a co-ordinated attack by Islamic State militants on a Chinese-owned hotel in the heart of Kabul.

Smoke rises from the last besieged neighborhood in the village of Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province, Syria, March 18, 2019. REUTERS/Stringer
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Smoke rises from the last besieged Islamic State stronghold in Baghuz in March 2019

Read more:
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Islamic State’s second leader of the year killed in battle

Efforts to free thousands of imprisoned militants

But the danger of IS activity in Iraq and Syria remains, despite its diminished presence.

Some 70,000 people with suspected links to the group, including women and children and around 10,000 IS militants, are being held by Kurdish forces in north east Syria.

IS has been clear that it intends to free its supporters. In January it used vehicles and explosives to ram through the walls of Gweiran Prison in Hassakeh in a bid to free the 3,000 held there.

Dr Shiraz Maher, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, says the risk of IS freeing thousands of imprisoned fighters is the “single greatest security threat to the West”.

He told Sky News: “The Syrian Democratic Forces have repeatedly said that this is a ticking time bomb that they are sitting on (that) they are not capable of dealing with themselves alone.”

Many of those being held by SDF forces are foreign fighters, but many nations have been reluctant to deal with them.

The delicate situation could be put at risk if Turkey carries out its threat of a land invasion targeting Kurdish forces, Dr Maher warned.

Such a development may force Kurdish authorities to divert resources currently guarding its network of detention centres to the front line, creating a “massive ability” for IS to free its supporters.

“We need to think creatively and have some courage in dealing with this issue and nipping it in the bud right now,” Dr Maher said.

“If ISIS return to Syria and Iraq, people will die on the streets of Berlin, London and Madrid.”

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Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow: What we know about the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities

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Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow: What we know about the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities

There is much that is still not known about the US strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Reports are coming in about which sites were hit and what military elements were involved, as President Donald Trump hails the attack on social media.

Here’s what we know so far.

Follow latest: US bombers strike three Iranian nuclear sites

Which sites were hit?

America appears to have hit the three key locations in Iran’s nuclear programme.

They include Isfahan, the location of a significant research base, as well as uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow.

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Natanz was believed to have been previously damaged in Israeli strikes after bombs disrupted power to the centrifuge hall, possibly destroying the machines indirectly.

However the facility at Fordow, which is buried around 80 metres below a mountain, had previously escaped major damage.

Details about the damage in the US strikes is not yet known, although Mr Trump said the three sites had been “obliterated”.

Read more:
Fordow: What we know about Iran’s secretive ‘nuclear mountain’

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Sky’s Mark Stone explains how Iran might respond to the US strike on Tehran’s nuclear sites.

What weapons were used in the attacks?

The White House and Pentagon did not immediately elaborate on the operation, but a US official said B-2 heavy bombers were involved.

Fox News host Sean Hannity said he had spoken with the president and that six bunker buster bombs were used on the Fordow facility.

Bunker buster bombs are designed to explode twice. Once to breach the ground surface and again once the bomb has burrowed down to a certain depth.

A GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri. in 2023. File pic: US Air Force via AP
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A file picture of a GBU-57 bunker buster bomb, which was possibly used in the attack on Fordow. Pic: AP

Israel has some in its arsenal but does not have the much more powerful GBU-57, which can only be launched from the B-2 bomber and was believed to be the only bomb capable of breaching Fordow.

Hannity said 30 Tomahawk missiles fired by US submarines 400 miles away struck the Iranian nuclear sites of Natanz and Isfahan.

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‘Fordow is gone’: US warplanes strike three nuclear sites in Iran

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'Fordow is gone': US warplanes strike three nuclear sites in Iran

The US has carried out a “very successful attack” on three nuclear sites on Iran, President Donald Trump has said.

The strikes, which the US leader announced on social media, reportedly include a hit on the heavily-protected Fordow enrichment plant which is buried deep under a mountain.

The other sites hit were at Natanz and Isfahan. It brings the US into direct involvement in the war between Israel and Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the “bold decision” by Mr Trump, saying it would “change history”.

Iran has repeatedly denied that it is seeking a nuclear weapon and the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said in June that it has no proof of a “systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon”.

Follow latest: US bombers strike three Iranian nuclear sites

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Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’

Addressing the nation in the hours after the strikes, Mr Trump said that Iran must now make peace or “we will
go after” other targets in Iran.

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Commenting on the operation, he said that the three Iranian sites had been “obliterated”.

“There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight
days,” he said.

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Benjamin Netanyahu said Donald Trump and the US have acted with strength following strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In a posting on Truth Social earlier, Mr Trump said, “All planes are safely on their way home” and he congratulated “our great American Warriors”. He added: “Fordow is gone.”

He also threatened further strikes on Iran unless it doesn’t “stop immediately”, adding: “Now is the time for peace.”

It is not yet clear if the UK was directly involved in the attack.

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‘Iranians have to repond’

Read more:
Analysis: If Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos
Fordow: What we know about Iran’s secretive ‘nuclear mountain’

Among the sites hit was Fordow, a secretive nuclear facility buried around 80 metres below a mountain and one of two key uranium enrichment plants in Iran.

“A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow,” Mr Trump said. “Fordow is gone.”

There had been a lot of discussion in recent days about possible American involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, and much centred around the US possibly being best placed to destroy Fordow.

Meanwhile, Natanz and Isfahan were the other two sites hit in the US attack.

Natanz is the other major uranium enrichment plant in Iran and was believed to have possibly already suffered extensive damage in Israel’s strikes earlier this week.

Isfahan features a large nuclear technology centre and enriched uranium is also stored there, diplomats say.

Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant
Image:
Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant

US media reported that six ‘bunker buster’ bombs were used to strike Fordow.

Mr Trump said no further strikes were planned and that he hoped diplomacy would now take over.

It’s not yet known what Iran’s response will be – particularly as the government was already struggling to repel Israel.

However a commentator on Iranian state TV said every US citizen or military in the region was now a legitimate target.

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Like George W Bush did in Iraq, if Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos that could ensue

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Like George W Bush did in Iraq, if Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos that could ensue

Israelis are good at tactics, poor at strategic vision, it has been observed.

Their campaign against Iran may be a case in point.

Short termism is understandable in a region that is so unpredictable. Why make elaborate plans if they are generally undone by unexpected events? It is a mindset that is familiar to anyone who has lived or worked there.

And it informs policy-making. The Israeli offensive in Gaza is no exception. The Israeli government has never been clear how it will end or what happens the day after that in what remains of the coastal strip. Pressed privately, even senior advisers will admit they simply do not know.

It may seem unfair to call a military operation against Iran that literally took decades of planning short-termist or purely tactical. There was clearly a strategy of astonishing sophistication behind a devastating campaign that has dismantled so much of the enemy’s capability.

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How close is Iran to producing a nuclear weapon?

But is there a strategic vision beyond that? That is what worries Israel’s allies.

It’s not as if we’ve not been here before, time and time again. From Libya to Afghanistan and all points in between we have seen the chaos and carnage that follows governments being changed.

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Hundreds of thousands have died. Vast swathes of territory remain mired in turmoil or instability.

Which is where a famous warning sign to American shoppers in the 80s and 90s comes in.

Ahead of the disastrous invasion that would tear Iraq apart, America’s defence secretary, Colin Powell, is said to have warned US president George W Bush of the “Pottery Barn rule”.

The Pottery Barn was an American furnishings store. Signs among its wares told clumsy customers: “You break it, you own it.”

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Iran and Israel exchange attacks

Bush did not listen to Powell hard enough. His administration would end up breaking Iraq and owning the aftermath in a bloody debacle lasting years.

Israel is not invading Iran, but it is bombing it back to the 80s, or even the 70s, because it is calling for the fall of the government that came to power at the end of that decade.

Iran’s leadership is proving resilient so far but we are just a week in. It is a country of 90 million, already riven with social and political discontent. Its system of government is based on factional competition, in which paranoia, suspicion and intense rivalries are the order of the day.

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After half a century of authoritarian theocratic rule there are no opposition groups ready to replace the ayatollahs. There may be a powerful sense of social cohesion and a patriotic resentment of outside interference, for plenty of good historic reasons.

But if that is not enough to keep the country together then chaos could ensue. One of the biggest and most consequential nations in the region could descend into violent instability.

That will have been on Israel’s watch. If it breaks Iran it will own it even more than America owned the disaster in Iraq.

Iran and Israel are, after all, in the same neighbourhood.

Has Israel thought through the consequences? What is the strategic vision beyond victory?

And if America joins in, as Donald Trump is threatening, is it prepared to share that legacy?

At the very least, is his administration asking its allies whether they have a plan for what could come next?

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