Through triumph and tragedy, Michigan’s Olu Oluwatimi became the nation’s top lineman
WHEN IT CAME time for center Olu Oluwatimi to take the stage at the Michigan talent show last August, he grabbed the microphone with a clear plan in mind.
It was time to let his new teammates really see him, the way his former Virginia teammates saw him for the bulk of his college career.
“I already know what song it was,” his old Virginia roommate, Richard Burney, says with a laugh.
Burney said Oluwatimi, who started 35 games at Virginia before transferring to Michigan, would sing the song in the shower, or alone in his room, or anywhere, really.
I never know when you might walk by
So I gotta be right on time
When I see you
When I see you
There is something unexpected but particularly endearing about watching a 6-foot-3, 307-pound man belt out “When I See U,” a slow jam by former American Idol winner Fantasia. His Michigan teammates started clapping and singing along.
Sherrone Moore, Michigan’s offensive line coach and co-offensive coordinator, remembers watching the reaction of the players in the room. “It was a really cool moment, and just to see him open up like that was super awesome,” Moore said.
Shortly after the talent show, his teammates voted Oluwatimi an alternate captain — seven months after his arrival to campus. Offensive linemen rarely take the spotlight, but that is not the case this season with Oluwatimi, the best player on the best offensive line in college football. “When I See U” might as well be the unofficial theme to his season.
Michigan plays TCU in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN), and it’s Oluwatimi who drives one of the best rushing teams in the nation. He’s also a veteran presence for first-year starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy as the Wolverines try to win their first national championship since 1997.
His affable personality, smarts, work ethic and leadership have made him a locker room favorite. None of this is surprising to anyone at Virginia, who watched Oluwatimi grow from walk-on to Rimington Award finalist over four years with the Cavaliers. When he decided to transfer to Michigan for 2022, those who know him best understood.
Indeed, former teammates and coaches might as well run the Olu Oluwatimi fan club, as they soak in everything he has earned.
They saw this — saw him — long ago.
“When preparation meets opportunity, there’s no luck involved in that,” former Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall said. “Anyone on the previous staff at Virginia, just smiles, like of course. What else would you expect?'”
But the journey itself has been unexpected and filled with challenges, as Oluwatimi went from largely overlooked high school recruit to walk-on to the best center in the country. Then last month, amid the best season of his life, Oluwatimi had to confront the most gutting challenge he had ever faced when tragedy hit Charlottesville, his former home.
THIS SEASON HAS provided Oluwatimi with clarity, both to anyone who might have doubted whether he could perform on a bigger national stage and to himself. He always believed he was an elite center, always knew he could be the key cog in a power run game. He thrives on being physical. Scratch that. He has a passion for being physical.
It was not hard to see, and easy to understand why Oluwatimi racked up multiple awards earlier this month — the Rimington as the best center in the country, and the Outland Trophy, given annually to the best interior lineman on offense or defense. The individual honors are nice, but Oluwatimi will tell you the one that means the most is the Joe Moore Award, presented to the best offensive line in the country.
Needless to say, Oluwatimi is a big reason Michigan won that award for the second straight year.
“The way he attacks his preparation, the way he attacks the game, he’s an extraordinary player,” Sherrone Moore said. “He’s got elite ability, he’s got strength, he’s got power, he’s got physicality. And he uses all that very well in every situation, and his leadership traits have really pushed the guys because they see how he works, how he is, and they just want to emulate that.”
Oluwatimi has always taken great pride in being a great teammate, now at Michigan and previously at Virginia. After he left the Cavaliers, he stayed in touch with his former teammates and was part of several group texts — including one with offensive linemen who transferred at the same time he did.
The Monday before Michigan’s Nov. 19 game against Illinois, Oluwatimi learned that Virginia football players Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr. and D’Sean Perry were shot and killed after returning home from a class trip. Oluwatimi played with Davis for two years, with Perry for three. Chandler had arrived after Oluwatimi left.
Oluwatimi played against Perry, a defensive lineman, both on the scout team and in practice. The text exchanges between friends and brothers continued that day and throughout the week as he tried to find a way to grapple with the loss while feeling disconnected from those suffering back in Charlottesville.
“It was a rough week,” Oluwatimi said. “To see them gone so soon, it was definitely rough, and I wasn’t around with the team when all that happened, so that was hard not being there with my guys. The team ended up going to three funerals within two weeks, so all the mourning and tears and the family members that have to deal with the loss, it hits home. It’s tough. But they’re in heaven. They’re proud of their teammates. They’re proud of me. We’ve got some angels up in heaven.”
There were phone calls, too, including to teammates who had also left UVA.
“It is a hard thing being detached from the situation, but also being so close to it,” said former Virginia teammate Ryan Swoboda, now at UCF. “We’re in contact with a lot of the guys still on the team, so just being able to talk to them and share stories was the most helpful.”
On the day of the memorial in Virginia, Oluwatimi suited up to take on Illinois. Earlier that week, his father was going in for surgery to remove a brain tumor. Oluwatimi had a lot to deal with, but being on the football field provided him a measure of solace.
“When we’re on that football field, it’s a beacon of togetherness, a beacon of hope, and it’s my happy space,” Oluwatimi said. “When I’m with my guys here, it was definitely a break from the grieving process. So playing football, it was easy for me, and it was actually needed for me.”
Said Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh following the Illinois game: “He has the strength of 10 men. The week he had this week, not only the physical strength of 10 men, but the mental strength of 10 men. The victims at Virginia, that tragedy was personal for him. Those were some of his teammates. And his dad had successful surgery to remove a tumor in his brain. All that was going on for Olu this week. I think back to being that age and there’s no way I could’ve handled that.”
With a heavy heart, Oluwatimi pushed forward to finish the season strong with a Big Ten championship and a spot in the CFP. His dad has since recovered from the surgery, a ray of hope heading into the final stretch of the year.
There is no doubt the biggest on-field tests remain, but if Oluwatimi knows one thing, it is how to handle challenges and doubters.
IT MIGHT FEEL expected now, but out of football hotbed DeMatha Catholic high school in Maryland, nobody saw Oluwatimi for what he could become. With zero Power 5 offers, Oluwatimi opted to go to Air Force as a freshman in 2017, but after a year he realized, “This is not for me.”
He decided to transfer to Virginia, in part because a former high school teammate told him he thought it would be a good fit. Plus, it was much closer to home. As the youngest of six children to Nigerian immigrants, family has always been a bedrock for him.
Oluwatimi arrived as a walk-on in 2018 with familiarity among the coaching staff. Virginia recruited him out of high school but did not offer a scholarship because, in large part, the projections about whether he could add enough weight and mature enough physically were unclear.
“A lot of times, there’s a risk aversion by a program when they don’t know for sure,” Mendenhall said. “After one year of seeing his growth and progress at Air Force, we wish we would have done something earlier. So when we had the second chance to act, it was a much easier decision.”
Playing on his second college team in as many years presents challenges, especially when it comes to getting to know a new set of teammates. But Oluwatimi took a simple approach.
“Every coach and every teammate loves somebody that’s going to lay it on the line and work hard for the squad and be selfless,” Oluwatimi said. “You can’t be fake. So if you’re yourself and you have those qualities of being humble and a hard worker, everybody’s going to love you, and that’s how I’ve been able to mesh with the teams that I’ve been on.”
Indeed, Oluwatimi got to work, putting in long hours both with the team and on his own. In the weight room, he had to work on gaining better flexibility in his hips and functional movement with his entire body. He ran stiff at times, so gaining better fluidity with his lower body was at the top of his list.
All that extra work, whether that meant waking up early, watching extra game tape or staying late to help a teammate, stood out immediately. Swoboda describes Oluwatimi’s preparation as “surgical” because “he takes everything into consideration and works to perfect his craft.”
“He’s in the top 1% of people in strength, speed, agility,” Swoboda said. “He’s in the top 1% of people in terms of his mental understanding of scheme and techniques, and he’s in the top 1% of people who finish plays and are tenacious on the field. So when you’re in the top 1% of those three categories, as an O-lineman, it’s probably a nightmare for defensive lineman.”
Oluwatimi had to sit out 2018 because of the transfer rules that existed back then, but he and then-graduate assistant Jackson Matteo got into a routine. Matteo told Oluwatimi about the Rimington Award. Every drill they did together, Matteo would repeat: Rimington, Rimington, Rimington. “All those words can just mean nothing,” Matteo said. “Or you can literally watch a young man take full responsibility for his destiny and turn it into reality.”
By the time 2019 rolled around, Oluwatimi had earned a scholarship and the starting center job, essentially becoming the assistant to then-offensive line coach Garett Tujague. The two spent countless hours together watching tape. Oluwatimi was responsible for setting the front and calling all protections, and his preparation provided a calming presence on the field, even when things would go wrong.
Former teammate Jack Keenan called it “ironclad emotional control.”
“It is almost impossible to ruffle his feathers,” Tujague said. “I never saw him lose control of the situation he was in. I would come over to the sideline to talk to the linemen and Olu would tell me, ‘Coach, we got it.’ He and I had invested so much in preparing for Saturdays that it made it that much easier.”
Perhaps more indicative of what was to come, Mendenhall had his players go through assessments to determine the best way they learned and communicated. Oluwatimi’s scoring was tilted heavily toward factual, analytical, logical and sequential learning and decision making.
“That is magical for the position he plays,” Mendenhall said. “His ability to identify defensive fronts, in a sequential, thorough way, and then have us in the appropriate run play, check or protection, the number of times that he misses that is almost zero.”
Mendenhall said he noticed Oluwatimi work even harder ahead of the 2021 season. Strength coaches would text him constantly, “Olu is here again.”
“If you put a camera outside of our outdoor and indoor facility at UVA, he probably walked in and out of that building more than anybody,” Swoboda said.
Oluwatimi would hold film sessions to help freshmen and sophomores, and stay after practice to help anyone who needed it. If anyone had a question about technique, formations or alignments, they would text Oluwatimi and he quickly responded.
“Coach Mendenhall had the mantra ‘earned not given,’ and Olu embodies that probably more than anybody else that came to that program,” Keenan said.
When the 2021 season ended, Oluwatimi had earned second-team All-ACC honors and was a finalist for the Rimington Trophy — a first in Virginia history. But when Mendenhall stepped down in December of 2021, Oluwatimi had to make a decision.
“I honestly wanted to go to the NFL, but the draft grades and scouts were telling me to come back to school,” Oluwatimi said. “So I decided to look for a different opportunity to try to elevate my draft grade, because I felt that I did all I could do at the University of Virginia. I wanted to go to a place where I felt that we could compete for a national title and win a conference championship.”
OLUWATIMI WAS TRANSFERRING for the second time in his career. Only this time, Michigan saw exactly who he was.
The Michigan recruiting staff alerted Sherrone Moore as soon as they saw Oluwatimi’s name enter the portal. Michigan was losing center Andrew Vastardis, the anchor of the Joe Moore-award winning offensive line, so this was a position that needed a veteran presence — especially with three starters on the offensive line returning.
“I knew right away who he was, and I went back to watch the film and was like, ‘This guy’s really good,” Moore said. “When he came on his visit, we knew right away he would be awesome, just from a personality standpoint, how he acted, very humble. It was love at first sight for everybody.”
Whether Moore knew it at the time or not, Michigan had always been a dream school for Oluwatimi. The opportunity to showcase his ability as a power run blocker — something that Virginia did not do as an Air Raid offense — only added to the appeal.
“It was a perfect fit,” said Burney, his Virginia roommate. “I remember telling him, ‘If you can put it all together, the sky’s the limit,’ and now we’re here. It’s crazy.”
The same characteristics his Virginia teammates and coaches raved about were on display as soon as he arrived in Ann Arbor last January. He simply worked, and essentially had the playbook down by the time spring practice started.
“He was asking me in the first days of spring ball, ‘Hey, Coach when are we going to put this play in?'” Moore said. “And I was like, ‘It’s not going in until like install seven. He’s like, ‘Oh because I was just looking at them last night and just want to make sure I had it down.'”
His play this season might have been a revelation to those unfamiliar with Virginia and ACC football, but those who have watched Oluwatimi over the past three seasons can’t help but smile.
Former Virginia teammate Martin Weisz decided to visit Oluwatimi in Ann Arbor for the Wolverines’ game against UConn in Week 3. Though the game was a 59-0 blowout win, Weisz recalls watching Oluwatimi interact with his coaches and teammates on the sideline, and again after the game.
“I could just tell even though he was in that offensive line room at Michigan for less than a year, he had already emerged as somebody who everyone could lean on,” Weisz said. “After the game, they always have a tailgate for players and their families, and one of the younger centers was going over film with Olu, asking him all these different questions about football, life, how he manages it all. I know how much they value Olu’s experience, and they truly take his words very, very seriously, just because he’s been through it all.”
Without question, Oluwatimi has elevated the offensive line in Ann Arbor. Michigan ranks No. 6 in the nation in rushing offense, and Moore said his presence was “huge” for McCarthy because “you’ve got somebody in the middle that can help you and get you out of things if you’re unsure.”
Now the biggest test remains. Michigan lost in the CFP semifinals to Georgia last year, in large part because it could not handle the Bulldogs’ defensive front.
This is all new to Oluwatimi but do not expect him to lose focus. That is simply not in his nature. He knows what is at stake, and how much his teammates are depending on him in what is now the biggest game of the season against TCU.
“Through the first 13 games of the year, I’m happy with how I performed and what I’ve done,” Oluwatimi said. “We’ve got two more, and I’ve got to show some more. I’m excited.”
Oluwatimi is now rated the No. 2 center headed into the 2023 NFL draft by both Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, a far cry from being told to return to school a year ago. NFL scouts are recognizing Oluwatimi, too. But any NFL draft talk has been shoved to the side.
Instead, there has been time for reflection. The night before the regular-season finale against Ohio State, Michigan held a team meeting. As Harbaugh talked, Oluwatimi looked around, taking everything in, appreciating every moment over the last six years as if he was seeing it all for the first time.
“I could have never imagined my college journey bringing me here, being able to compete for a national title,” Oluwatimi said. “As I look back and reflect on the journey, I’m just speechless.”
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Bill Connelly
It seems like only yesterday that Florida State was running circles around Alabama, LSU was scoring a statement win over Clemson, Miami was defeating Notre Dame in a game with potential playoff stakes, and James Franklin and Brian Kelly were coaching top-10 teams.
College football has the shortest regular season around but remains capable of endless plot twists. A mere 13 weeks from Week 1, Florida State and Penn State are 5-6, Clemson is 6-5, Kelly is out of a job, Franklin has found a new one and, because of another couple of late-game failures, Miami is again just on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in (while Notre Dame is again safe).
Now we get to find out how the story ends. Who will survive the intricate web of tiebreakers to reach conference title games? What surprises might fierce rivalry games provide? And most importantly, how much small-school playoff football do you plan on watching?
It’s time to feast on Thanksgiving and on football. It’s Rivalry Week! Here’s everything you need to follow.
Two huge rivalry games starring favorites as spoilers
Rivalry Week’s superpower is its depth. Everywhere you look — from the Egg Bowl to the Territorial Cup to the Battle on the Bayou (Louisiana-ULM) to the Battle for the Fremont Cannon (Nevada-UNLV) — you’ll find games that will define fans’ outlooks for an entire offseason.
It’s nice to have some bell-cow games, though. And two of the sport’s loudest rivalries have major stakes this year.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (Saturday, noon, Fox)
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Ohio State hasn’t beaten Michigan in a while. Since the start of 2021, the Buckeyes are 0-4 in The Game and 58-4 in all others. They went through a full-on existential crisis after last year’s loss, then rallied to whomp four straight opponents and win the national title.
On Saturday, the Buckeyes will try out a new role for a new era: unbeaten spoiler. They’re safely in the CFP no matter what, though they could still lose their spot in the Big Ten championship game. (I guess that would be a bad thing?) But with a win, they could ensure that Michigan is out of the CFP running. That’s probably enough motivation.
Last week, Michigan provided a complete performance with a 45-20 win over Maryland. Reserve running backs Bryson Kuzdzal and Tomas O’Meara, in because of injuries, rushed for a combined 171 yards, and the defense allowed touchdowns on only the Terps’ first and last drives. Bryce Underwood ranks 12th in QBR in November, and the Wolverines are 10th in defensive SP+.
Ohio State has been so ruthlessly automatic that we still don’t know everything we need to know about quarterback Julian Sayin. Even with star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate battling injuries of late, Sayin has completed 79% of his passes with 27 TDs to four interceptions, but he has also thrown just 25 fourth-quarter passes. How will he perform when facing constant pressure? We don’t know. (Of course, Penn State got in his face a lot and he went 20-for-23.) Can he lead a late, do-or-die drive? We don’t know. (Granted, he’s 15-for-18 for 223 yards when trailing.)
Smith appears likely to play Saturday, but Tate’s status remains uncertain. This might be the stiffest defensive test Sayin has faced, but it’s definitely the stiffest Underwood has faced, and he doesn’t have the healthiest skill corps either. The pressure is all on Michigan for a change.
Current line: Buckeyes -11.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 14.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 8.5
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
For 15 years, Texas A&M (which beat Texas 24-17 in 2010) has been able to say it won its last trip to Austin. If the Aggies can still say that Saturday morning, they’ll have wrapped up their first unbeaten regular season since 1939, clinched their first SEC championship game appearance and officially knocked Texas out of CFP contention.
Texas just hasn’t looked the part for much of 2025. Projected fifth in SP+, the Longhorns are currently 23rd with a defense that has allowed more than 30 points for four straight games and an offense that only recently began carrying its weight. Of course, Arch Manning ranks ninth in QBR in November, and while he has derived loads of success from short, easy passes, the offense is indeed clicking even if the defense isn’t.
Two weeks ago against South Carolina, A&M’s Marcel Reed put together just about the worst first half (6-for-19 with two interceptions and two sacks) and best second half (16-for-20 for 298 yards and three TDs) of his life. You can’t ever say A&M is out of a game if Reed is around to dig the Aggies out of a hole, but he also might be part of the reason they’re in the hole to begin with.
Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 | FPI projection: Texas by 0.3
Which contender falls on the road?
Of the 11 teams ranked from fourth to 14th in the CFP rankings, nine play on the road this weekend. A few could survive a loss with a CFP bid intact, but with so many similar teams packed together, you don’t really want to find out if you’re on the “could survive” list.
Based on SP+ win probabilities, there’s only about a 7% chance that these nine teams all win and there is a 37% chance that at least three lose. Chaos looms. Let’s talk about each of the nine games, going from the most likely to the least likely defeats for the contenders.
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Tennessee and Vanderbilt have had basically the same season: They’re a combined 0-4 against teams in the SP+ top 12 (UT 0-3, VU 0-1) and 17-1 against everyone else (UT 8-0, VU 9-1). They have the same general strengths (ruthlessly efficient offenses) and weaknesses (defenses that show up only occasionally). Vols fans are probably annoyed that their team is out of the playoff running because their schedule was slightly harder, but they can exact some level of vengeance with a win Saturday.
My Heisman points race totals suggest Diego Pavia‘s odds should be better than they are. He’ll have to torch Tennessee’s (occasionally torchable) defense to make a good final impression. But Joey Aguilar is capable of doing the same. Both are in the best quadrant of this chart:
Both defenses played well last week against limited opponents, but the offenses have the advantage here.
Current line: Vols -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 0.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 2.0
No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt (Saturday, noon, ABC)
Since walloping a good USF team in Week 3, Miami has played three SP+ top-40 teams — Florida State, Louisville and SMU — and lost to two. The defense has been consistently strong; the Canes are seventh in points allowed per drive, and they could give Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel hell if the Panthers’ run game isn’t sharp enough. But the Miami offense has been dragged down at times by a lack of explosiveness and forced to score via long drives with lots of snaps.
That makes Pitt a fascinating matchup: The Panthers come at you, risking explosive plays in exchange for three-and-outs. Miami receivers Malachi Toney, Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels have had their game-breaking moments, but they’re averaging just 12.2 yards per catch altogether. If they don’t find and exploit open spaces, an upset looms.
Current line: Miami -6.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.2
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
In the past three seasons, Auburn has played 14 ranked opponents; the Tigers have gone 1-13 but with nine one-score defeats. When you come so consistently close, you’re always a threat.
Auburn’s defense is elite against the run, but Alabama has all but given up on the ground game. The Tide choose instead to put everything on quarterback Ty Simpson‘s shoulders, and despite a solid pass rush Auburn ranks 93rd in yards allowed per dropback. That’s a problem, but the Tigers could make things confusing on offense. Both Ashton Daniels (against Vandy) and Deuce Knight (against Mercer) have enjoyed fantastic performances since Hugh Freeze’s firing, and there isn’t a ton of tape on either of them. If Auburn keeps this one uncomfortably close — or pulls off a terribly damaging upset — the element of surprise could be a major reason.
Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.5
No. 6 Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oregon might not need a win in Seattle to secure a playoff bid, but if other favorites win and it doesn’t, things could get tense.
Washington’s run defense is stout enough to push the Ducks off schedule and force quarterback Dante Moore to hit big third-and-long throws that he hasn’t always made this season. But this game will likely come down to quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and the Washington offense. They’ve dominated all but the most elite defenses.
Washington vs. two top-10 defenses (per SP+): 6.5 points per game, 4.5 yards per play
Washington vs. everyone else: 42.0 points per game, 7.0 yards per play
Unfortunately for the Huskies, Oregon ranks fifth in defensive SP+. If Williams gets going, Washington can beat anyone. But it would be the first time he has done so against a defense this good.
Current line: Ducks -6.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.7 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.1
No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
November has been a nightmare for Georgia Tech. After an 8-0 start, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of three, their defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Last week’s loss to Pitt removed a lot of stakes from this game. Luckily, coach Brent Key, a former Tech lineman, has enough hatred for Georgia to keep the stakes as high as possible.
If you can’t stop Georgia’s run game, the Dawgs will just keep at it, and that might be all that matters in this one. But Tech’s offense remains excellent. Haynes King has thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his past four games, and he has rushed for more than 85 non-sack yards seven times in 2025. King almost willed the Jackets to victory over UGA last season but fell just short. He’ll try again in his last Tech home game (although this one will be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and not Bobby Dodd).
Current line: UGA -13.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.8
No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday, noon, ABC)
First things first: Yes, the current college football calendar stinks, and it was always conceivable that a coach would get wooed by blue-blood schools amid a playoff push. But as others have noted, this isn’t happening to Lane Kiffin. It’s happening to Ole Miss because Kiffin is actually thinking about leaving. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to weigh a blue-blood move — tradition, recruiting bases, an epic and ridiculous salary offer — but this is still his own doing.
Ole Miss is much better than MSU. The Rebels combine a steady run game with high tempo and high-ceiling passing. The defense has been mediocre against the run but strong against the pass. That pairs well against a Bulldogs team that makes big plays here and there but goes three-and-out too often and can’t stop even an average run game. With no distractions or rivalry weirdness, Ole Miss cruises. But, wow, is it difficult to assume no distractions or rivalry weirdness.
Current line: Rebels -7.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 14.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 8.5
No. 13 Utah at Kansas (Friday, noon, ESPN)
Utah’s defense has allowed 75 points in the past two weeks, and star defensive end John Henry Daley is likely out for the season with a leg injury. But Kansas has lost four of five since a 4-2 start. The Jayhawks’ offense has underachieved against projections in every game since September, and Utah has scored at least 45 points in six of seven games. The Utes dodged a bullet with last week’s comeback win over Kansas State, and maybe the defense can’t right the ship. But signs still point to them reaching 10-2.
Current line: Utah -13.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.0
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
Over the past four weeks, WVU’s defense has made the most tackles for loss in the Big 12, while new quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. has become a more and more explosive passer. The Mountaineers have won two of three since a 2-6 start. Will any of this matter against Texas Tech? Probably not. The Red Raiders are on a different plane of existence in the trenches, and they’ve won four games by an average of 41-9 since quarterback Behren Morton returned from injury.
Current line: Tech -20.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.5
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)
A game with CFP stakes will end at around 2 a.m. ET Sunday. Convenient. There shouldn’t be much drama, though. Notre Dame has won its past three games by an average of 52-11, and while Stanford has improved of late and scored a rousing rivalry win over Cal last week, its offense is still destitute. It will take epic rivalry magic for this to remain close past midnight.
Current line: Irish -32.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 24.9
Does the ACC have another round of surprises?
Back in the 2010s, the ACC Coastal division was the shining light for either parity or slapstick. All seven of its members won the division title once from 2013 to 2019, and all seven proceeded to lose the ACC championship game. (That’s why we got rid of divisions — they were usually terribly unequal.)
The spirit of the Coastal lives. It’s in the walls; there’s no getting it out. Starting with Clemson in the preseason, the conference favorite per SP+ has changed, wait for it, seven times this year and has done so for each of the past four weeks. Odds suggest we’ll probably get an SMU-Virginia title game next week, but since when do odds matter in this league? Four other teams have at least a slight chance at taking advantage if (when?) the Mustangs or Cavaliers slip up, including whoever wins Miami-Pitt (listed above).
No. 21 SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2)
SMU began the season 2-2, falling out of the SP+ top 50 from a starting point of 19th. Since October began, however, the Mustangs have gone 6-1 and surged all the way back to 24th. The defense rounded into form first, then the offense followed. The Mustangs still can’t run as well as expected, but quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 994 yards and seven touchdowns in three November games.
Now comes an odd test: Cal just fired Justin Wilcox after his Golden Bears followed an upset of Louisville with a catastrophic, error-strewn loss to Stanford. Interim coaches have done well this season, and Cal can combine solid pass defense with an occasionally productive Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele-to-Jacob De Jesus pass combo. But this game will probably come down to SMU: If the Mustangs keep hitting the notes they’ve been hitting, they’ll head back to Charlotte in a week and a half.
Current line: SMU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 | FPI projection: SMU by 12.8
Virginia Tech at No. 18 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
In the past 45 years, Virginia has been a double-digit favorite against rival Virginia Tech just once, in 1985. The Cavaliers lost 28-10. In fact, they’ve been favored over Tech 14 times in that span and have gone just 7-7 in those games. In terms of general rivalry nonsense, that’s delightful. But surely they can’t lose this one, right? Tech has lost five of six, Virginia has won eight of nine, and a win would take the Hoos to Charlotte for just the second time. Surely not, right?
To the Hokies’ credit, they haven’t stopped fighting. They made Louisville and Miami sweat for a while, but they just haven’t had the horses, especially on defense. Tech’s run game could test UVA, but even against an inconsistent Cavaliers offense, the Hokies will still have to make stops, and that has been a major issue.
Current line: UVA -11.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 | FPI projection: UVA by 9.5
Down to the wire in the Group of 5
After weeks of turnover atop the Group of 5 hierarchy, last Saturday was actually stable, with the three current favorites (Tulane, North Texas and James Madison) all winning. If that continues — and SP+ suggests there’s only about a 15% chance one of them loses this week — we know where things stand: Tulane and North Texas will face off for the American title while JMU will hope to score style points against either Southern Miss or Troy in the Sun Belt championship game.
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
North Texas is essentially the mid-major USC: The Mean Green have a relentless passing game, a good run game, a solid pass defense and a very worrisome run defense. Earlier in the season, that might have been something Temple could take advantage of, but in November the Owls are averaging just 85 non-sack rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. If you can’t punish the Mean Green between the tackles, they will overwhelm you with points.
Current line: UNT -19.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 | FPI projection: UNT by 17.7
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU)
Despite a recent two-game skid, Coastal has scored 40-plus in four straight Sun Belt games thanks to big rushes from quarterback Samari Collier and an increase in aggressive downfield completions. Nothing really worked in a blowout loss to South Carolina last week — and honestly, on paper JMU’s defense might be better than South Carolina’s — but the Chanticleers’ big-play hunting makes them an intriguing candidate to pull an upset (or get totally thumped).
Current line: JMU -21.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.8
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Tim Albin left an established culture at Ohio to build a new one at Charlotte. It might take a little while. His 49ers are 0-10 against FBS competition, and they haven’t lost by fewer than 17 since September. They might test Tulane with some vertical passing, but with the Green Wave playing a pretty good bend-don’t-break routine of late, I doubt it works. And every other matchup drastically favors Jake Retzlaff and the Wave.
Current line: Tulane -29.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 28.2
Week 14 chaos superfecta
We’re again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Utah’s late comeback against Kansas State, we missed out last week and fell to 6-7 for the season. It’s time to claw back to .500!
SP+ says there’s only a 47% chance that Ole Miss (82% win probability against Mississippi State), Ohio State (82% against Michigan), Louisiana (84% against ULM) and UNLV (84% against Nevada) all win. Let’s take down a favored rival!
Week 14 playlist
From Thursday night to Saturday night, here are more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Thursday
Navy at Memphis (7:30 p.m., ESPN). If either American favorite slips up, Navy could be ready to grab a conference title game bid with a track-meet win Thanksgiving night. The Midshipmen have given up more than 30 points in six straight games, and Memphis has done so in four of five. May we be blessed with a repeat of last season’s 100-point, 1,225-yard feast.
Current line: Memphis -5.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 | FPI projection: Memphis by 9.9
Early Friday
Iowa at Nebraska (noon, CBS). Both of these teams were hoping for better than 7-4 records this season, and Iowa in particular was painfully close to something far greater. Regardless, this has become a must-watch game: The past seven matchups have been decided by one score. Iowa has been the better team in 2025, but the Hawkeyes are only 2-4 in one-score finishes. Nebraska is 4-2.
Current line: Iowa -5.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 4.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 2.3
Friday afternoon
San Diego State at New Mexico (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). If SDSU wins, the Aztecs are assured of a spot in the Mountain West title game, and we potentially avoid tiebreaker hell. But New Mexico, now 70th in SP+ — the last time the Lobos finished in the top 70 was 2007 — has an efficient passing game, a quickly improving defense and could make the race awfully messy with a home upset.
Current line: SDSU -1.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 | FPI projection: SDSU by 0.5
Friday evening
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (7:30 p.m., NBC). After nine games of mostly comprehensive brilliance, Indiana has underachieved against SP+ projections by 9.8 points per game over its past two. Did the Hoosiers peak early? Did they just get bored? Will that matter against a fading Purdue team that has lost its past two games by a combined 83-23? Surely the Spoilermakers couldn’t spoil the Hoosiers’ party, right?
Current line: IU -28.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 | FPI projection: IU by 28.6
Late Friday
No. 25 Arizona at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). If Kansas upsets Utah earlier Friday, a win would keep ASU’s Big 12 title hopes alive. But Arizona has won four straight and has risen to 25th in SP+. ASU could exploit a suspect Wildcats run defense with Raleek Brown and quarterback Jeff Sims, but the Sun Devils must avoid passing downs and make some stops against an improving Arizona offense.
Current line: Arizona -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 | FPI projection: ASU by 0.4
Early Saturday
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2). Two years ago, 5-6 BYU nearly wrecked Oklahoma State’s Big 12 championship plans in Stillwater, bolting to an 18-point lead but falling in double overtime. (That’s right, kids, OSU was once good at football! Way back in 2023!) Now comes a reversal. The Cougars are one win away from the title game but must fend off a 5-6 UCF team with speed and no semblance of consistency.
Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 | FPI projection: BYU by 21.3
Clemson at South Carolina (noon, SECN). These two preseason top-15 teams are a combined 11-12, having fallen victim to poor development, close losses, mediocre new hires and any number of other afflictions. But that’s why Rivalry Week is amazing: This game is still going to be intense and hostile, and the winner will get a dose of positivity before a challenging offseason.
Current line: S.C. -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 0.5 | FPI projection: S.C. by 3.4
Toledo at Central Michigan (noon, ESPN+). Since a shocking loss to Bowling Green sent Toledo to 1-2 in conference play, the Rockets have won their past four MAC games by an average of 37-6. Their defense ranks fifth nationally in points allowed per drive. But CMU has won four of five to remain in the hunt. Who keeps title hopes alive (until Miami maybe dashes them later in the day)?
Current line: Toledo -10.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 | FPI projection: CMU by 9.5
Saturday afternoon
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC). This one almost certainly belonged in one of the marquee categories above, but while so many other playoff contenders take to the road over Rivalry Week, OU has a less complicated task: win at home against an LSU team with a nonexistent offense, and the Sooners are in the CFP.
The Oklahoma offense could make this one complicated: LSU ranks ninth in defensive SP+, and OU has averaged only 14.8 offensive points and 4.6 yards per play against defenses ranked higher than 20th. But the Tigers scored only 13 points on Western Kentucky last week; 14 by the Sooners could be enough.
Current line: OU -10.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 | FPI projection: OU by 6.6
Troy at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). The Sun Belt race is simple: The winner in Hattiesburg faces James Madison in the title game. Southern Miss no-showed against Texas State and fell at South Alabama to drop to 7-4. The Golden Eagles are increasingly vulnerable on defense, but Troy’s offense ranks 125th in yards per play. The Trojans are here because of red zone defense and a fierce pass rush.
Current line: USM -6.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 | FPI projection: USM by 1.5
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (2 p.m., ESPN+). The winner is guaranteed a spot in the Conference USA title game. JSU had won five in a row until a misstep last week at Florida International, and WKU has won three straight CUSA games and nearly toppled LSU last week. Which young QB — JSU’s Caden Creel or WKU’s Rodney Tisdale Jr. — handles the moment better?
Current line: WKU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 | FPI projection: JSU by 0.3
Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., FS1). The road team has won three straight in this strange series. In its past four games, Wisconsin has overachieved against SP+ projections by 20.8 points per game. Minnesota has underachieved by 9.7. Can the Badgers win to wrap up the happiest possible 5-7 finish? Or will Minnesota rally to grab Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the fourth time in five years?
Current line: Minnesota -2.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 7.0 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 0.3
Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN). Along with Georgia Southern-Marshall (1:30 p.m., ESPN+) and Arkansas State-Appalachian State (2:30 p.m., ESPN+), we have a trio of “Winner bowls, loser stays home” games with 5-6 teams squaring off Saturday afternoon.
Penn State has been legitimately strong under interim coach Terry Smith, and Ethan Grunkemeyer‘s 71.4 Total QBR toasts that of injured veteran Drew Allar (56.6). It would be a surprise if the Nittany Lions slipped up this close to the finish line against a Rutgers team that has lost six of eight.
Current line: PSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 11.1
Saturday evening
Northwestern at Illinois (7:30 p.m., Fox). POTENTIAL SNOW GAME ALERT. The forecast in Champaign is looking pretty dicey, and here’s a big “hell yes” to that. The road team has won four of five in this series, but Illinois has been infinitely better at home than on the road this season. Of course, Luke Altmyer and the Illini offense have underachieved for weeks. Can they rally on senior night?
Current line: Illinois -6.5 | SP+ projection: Illinois by 11.3 | FPI projection: Illinois by 6.3
North Carolina at NC State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). This is Bill Belichick’s first foray into one of the sport’s most underrated rivalries. UNC was rallying toward bowl eligibility before last week’s tight loss to Duke. Now the Tar Heels head to Raleigh to face an NC State team that is both physical and maddeningly inconsistent. A Wolfpack blowout? A UNC upset? Nothing would be particularly surprising.
Current line: NC State -7.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.4 | FPI projection: NC State by 8.7
UCLA at No. 17 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC). After a brief upturn following DeShaun Foster’s firing, UCLA has bottomed out again, losing its past four games by an average of 45-13. Staying close might require a solid amount of rivalry magic, but USC could be reeling after last week’s loss to Oregon officially eliminated the Trojans from CFP contention.
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 27.3 | FPI projection: USC by 23.6
Late Saturday
UNLV at Nevada (9 p.m., CBSSN). They play for a cannon, and they had a nasty brawl in the not-so-distant past. Major “underrated rivalry” points here. Nevada has suddenly started playing well of late, and while we don’t know if UNLV will still have MWC title hopes by kickoff, the Rebels could hit double-digit wins for the second straight year.
Current line: UNLV -9.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 10.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The playoffs are underway in every division, and while the favorites probably aren’t going to be tested just yet, here’s a game you should track at each level.
FCS round of 24: No. 21 Yale at No. 13 Youngstown State (12 p.m., ESPN+). Two Ivy League teams reached the FCS playoffs in the Ancient Eight’s first year of accepting bids, and while Harvard (at Villanova, noon, ESPN+) appears to be losing steam quickly, Yale is peaking just in time. The Bulldogs have won their past six and have risen to 12th in SP+. Youngstown State is only 24th, but the Penguins score loads of points with dual-threat quarterback and Payton Award candidate Beau Brungard, and with their status as FCS royalty, I’m guessing they want to send a message against the playoff newcomers from the Northeast.
SP+ projection: Yale by 3.3
Division II round of 16: No. 10 Texas-Permian Basin at No. 15 Western Colorado (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+). A week after thumping No. 4 CSU-Pueblo to score the school’s first playoff win, UTPB returns to Colorado to face a WCU team fresh off of a top-five win of its own over Central Washington. This is a dynamite quarterback matchup — UTPB’s Kanon Gibson vs. WCU’s Drew Nash — and though the winner probably will face a massive task against No. 2 Harding, a quarterfinal berth would be sweet all the same.
SP+ projection Western by 5.6
Division III round of 32: No. 20 Wheaton at No. 5 Wartburg (1 p.m., ESPN+). I bet you thought I’d choose one of four teams from the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — my own personal obsession — for this section, but I resisted because this game seems particularly exciting. Wartburg gives up only 10 points per game and piles up tackles for loss with a ridiculously active defensive front. Wheaton, meanwhile, averages 48.6 points behind the arm of quarterback Mark Forcucci.
SP+ projection: Wartburg by 0.5
NAIA quarterfinals: No. 9 Morningside at No. 8 College of Idaho (3 p.m., local streaming). College of Idaho reached the NAIA semifinals a couple of years ago thanks to a dynamite offense, but the Yotes have earned a huge home game this year thanks to defense. Morningside is NAIA royalty, having won three national titles since 2018, and with Zach Chevalier throwing to Drew Sellon and Lennx Brown, the Mustangs might have the best passing attack in NAIA.
SP+ projection: Morningside by 8.3
LAS VEGAS — Golden Knights captain Mark Stone, back in the lineup after being out for more than a month because of a wrist injury, scored a tying power-play goal in the third period Wednesday, but Vegas dropped a 4-3 shootout loss to the Ottawa Senators.
Vegas dropped to 1-8 in overtime games. The Golden Knights have points in seven of eight games, but four were overtime losses.
Stone, who was placed on injured reserve Oct. 20, had 13 points in his first six games before getting hurt.
“It’s good to have his energy back,” coach Bruce Cassidy said before Wednesday’s loss. “He’s good on the bench. He’s a leader. It’s just nice to have him back. He makes our team better.”
Stone had been skating with the Golden Knights’ American Hockey League affiliate in Henderson, Nevada.
“If I didn’t have that, I’d probably be looking more at Friday,” Stone said of his return. “Everything’s healed. I got the practices I needed. I’m ready to go.”
Stone was on the top line when he was injured but was on the third-line center against the Senators, with Mitch Marner moving to wing. Braeden Bowman, a 22-year-old rookie, remained on the top line with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev.
This was not the first time the 33-year-old Stone has been injured in recent seasons. He played 66 games last season, his most since the 2018-19 season.
“Every injury is frustrating,” Stone said before Wednesday’s game. “I don’t enjoy rehabbing. I’ve unfortunately gotten good at it. I understand the best way to go about it, but no rehab’s fun. I don’t wish it on anyone. I’m excited to be back.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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