Metaverse off to ominous start after VR headset sales shrank in 2022
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg demonstrates an Oculus Rift virtual reality (VR) headset and Oculus Touch controllers during the Oculus Connect 3 event in San Jose, California, U.S., on Thursday, Oct. 6, 2016.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Over a year after changing his company’s name to Meta and committing to spend billions of dollars developing the metaverse, Mark Zuckerberg’s bet on virtual reality is no closer to paying off.
Sales of VR headsets in the U.S. this year declined 2% from a year earlier to $1.1 billion as of early December, according to data shared with CNBC by research firm NPD Group. Facebook’s advertising business generates that much revenue about every three days.
With the ad business mired in a slump, Zuckerberg has been looking to VR devices and related technology to pull Meta into the future. But data from analyst firm CCS Insight reveals that worldwide shipments of VR headsets as well as augmented reality devices dropped more than 12% year over year to 9.6 million in 2022.
Taken together, the estimates of VR headset sales and shipments create a problematic picture for Meta, whose stock price has lost about two-thirds of its value this year. Zuckerberg has said he’s playing the long game with the metaverse, expecting it take up to a decade to go mainstream and projecting it will eventually host hundreds of billions of dollars in commerce.
It’s not just Meta. Numerous venture firms and other tech companies have wagered big over the past decade on a futuristic world of virtual work, education, fitness and sports.
Meta’s Quest 2 headset, released in 2020, is by far the leader in the VR market, according to several analysts. Competing devices from companies like Valve, HP and Sony represent a small fraction of the market.
Sales of Meta’s flagship Quest device dropped in 2022, a decline that can be attributed to the device’s big year in 2021, said Ben Arnold, NPD’s consumer electronics analyst.
“VR had an amazing holiday in 2021,” Arnold said, referring to various promotions that helped boost sales of the devices at a time when gaming consoles like Sony’s PlayStation 5 were in short supply. “It was a great time last year to get one of these products, and VR totally crushed it.”
VR headset revenue in the U.S. doubled in 2021 from about $530 million in 2020, according to NPD.
A confluence of factors contributed to lower sales and shipments in 2022.
The Quest 2 has been around for a few years and, like any consumer electronics device, has lost some appeal as it’s aged. And while Meta released a new VR headset in fall, the Quest Pro, that device is geared toward businesses and costs $1,100 more than the Quest 2, pushing it even further out of reach for many VR enthusiasts.
Meta decided over the summer to raise the price of the Quest 2 by $100, citing inflationary pressures.
Leo Gebbie, an analyst at CCS Insight, said in an email that Meta’s price increase was a surprise “given that the company has been willing to sell the headset at such a low margin to try and drive uptake of VR and gain a high market share.”
Meta declined to comment about its VR headset sales or third-party estimates.
All eyes on Apple
Next year is expected to be another “slow year” for the VR market, CCS Insight said in its latest report, citing a weak economy and inflation.
Gebbie said “consumer budgets will be tightening,” and “non-essential purchases like VR headsets are likely to be the casualty of this.”
Sony’s next-generation VR headset will cost $550 when it debuts in February. Arnold said that while the PlayStation VR2 will “give the market kind of a shot in the arm,” it will likely not influence the overall VR market as much as the Quest 2 because Sony’s device requires owners to have a PlayStation 5 as way to power the headset.
Sony PlayStation VR2 headset
Sony
“The total addressable market of the PSVR2 is going to be PlayStation owners,” Arnold said.
A major question for next year remains whether Apple, as long rumored, will unveil a VR headset.
Apple could create a compelling VR headset with an accompanying software ecosystem, Arnold said.
Additionally, Apple’s reputation as a leader in consumer technology could provide a spark to the dim VR market, making the technology more attractive to the general public.
“If one company has the ability to transform the VR market overnight, it’s Apple,” said Gebbie. “With its hugely loyal fanbase, many of whom are comfortable with spending large amounts of money on technology, if Apple was to launch a headset we expect that it would perform very well.”
Apple is reportedly building a VR headset with AR features for a release as soon as 2023.
Eric Abbruzzese, a research director at ABI Research, said Apple could have success launching a VR headset geared toward businesses, which would likely help lure developers to the community. But the high price of an enterprise VR headset, which would likely retail for several thousand dollars, would still make it difficult for Apple to move the needle, Abbruzzese said.
“It probably won’t even ship 5 million units in its first year,” Abbruzzese said of an Apple enterprise VR headset. “But it is the first notable product from a huge tech incumbent.”
Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment.
One major thing the VR world lacks is a breakout hit, or a killer app.
Some games have gotten traction, like the musical rhythm game Beat Saber and VR versions of popular titles like Resident Evil, Abbruzzese said. And some users are showing more interest in using VR for fitness activities.
But in the console market, blockbuster games like FIFA and Call of Duty are “shipping hundreds of millions of products,” he said.
Meanwhile Meta’s Horizon Worlds social VR platform is still in its experimental phase.
“The only metaverse product really is Horizon and it’s not good right now,” Abbruzzese said.
WATCH: Meta has a tremendous future if it can just stop making mistakes
Tik Tok creators gather before a press conference to voice their opposition to the “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act,” pending crackdown legislation on TikTok in the House of Representatives, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 12, 2024.
Craig Hudson | Reuters
The Supreme Court on Friday will hear oral arguments in the case involving the future of TikTok in the U.S., which could ban the popular app as soon as next week.
The justices will consider whether the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, the law that targets TikTok’s ban and imposes harsh civil penalties for app “entities” that continue to carry the service after Jan.19, violates the U.S. Constitution’s free speech protections.
It’s unclear when the court will hand down a decision, and if China’s ByteDance continues to refuse to divest TikTok to an American company, it faces a complete ban nationwide.
What will change about the user experience?
The roughly 115 million U.S. TikTok monthly active users could face a range of scenarios depending on when the Supreme Court hands down a decision.
If no word comes before the law takes effect on Jan. 19 and the ban goes through, it’s possible that users would still be able to post or engage with the app if they already have it downloaded. However, those users would likely be unable to update or redownload the app after that date, multiple legal experts said.
Thousands of short-form video creators who generate income from TikTok through ad revenue, paid partnerships, merchandise and more will likely need to transition their businesses to other platforms, like YouTube or Instagram.
“Shutting down TikTok, even for a single day, would be a big deal, not just for people who create content on TikTok, but everyone who shares or views content,” said George Wang, a staff attorney at the Knight First Amendment Institute who helped write the institute’s amicus briefs on the case.
“It sets a really dangerous precedent for how we regulate speech online,” Wang said.
Who supports and opposes the ban?
Dozens of high-profile amicus briefs from organizations, members of Congress and President-elect Donald Trump were filed supporting both the government and ByteDance.
The government, led by Attorney General Merrick Garland, alleges that until ByteDance divests TikTok, the app remains a “powerful tool for espionage” and a “potent weapon for covert influence operations.”
Trump’s brief did not voice support for either side, but it did ask the court to oppose banning the platform and allow him to find a political resolution that allows the service to continue while addressing national security concerns.
The short-form video app played a notable role in both Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ presidential campaigns in 2024, and it’s one of the most common news sources for younger voters.
In a September Truth Social post, Trump wrote in all caps Americans who want to save TikTok should vote for him. The post was quoted in his amicus brief.
What comes next?
It’s unclear when the Supreme Court will issue its ruling, but the case’s expedited hearing has some predicting that the court could issue a quick ruling.
The case will have “enormous implications” since TikTok’s user base in the U.S. is so large, said Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of Berkeley Law.
“It’s unprecedented for the government to prohibit platforms for speech, especially one so many people use,” Chemerinsky said. “Ultimately, this is a tension between free speech issues on the one hand and claims of national security on the other.”
WATCH: It appears TikTok could really get shut down, says Jim Cramer
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks about Project Digits personal AI supercomputer for researchers and students during a keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Nevada on January 6, 2025. Gadgets, robots and vehicles imbued with artificial intelligence will once again vie for attention at the Consumer Electronics Show, as vendors behind the scenes will seek ways to deal with tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump. The annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) opens formally in Las Vegas on January 7, 2025, but preceding days are packed with product announcements. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP) (Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)
Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was greeted as a rock star this week CES in Las Vegas, following an artificial intelligence boom that’s made the chipmaker the second most-valuable company in the world.
At his nearly two-hour keynote on Monday kicking off the annual conference, Huang packed a 12,000-seat arena, drawing comparisons to the way Steve Jobs would reveal products at Apple events.
Huang concluded with an Apple-like trick: a surprise product reveal. He presented one of Nvidia’s server racks and, using some stage magic, held up a much smaller version, which looked like a tiny cube of a computer.
“This is an AI supercomputer,” Huang said, while donning an alligator skin leather jacket. “It runs the entire Nvidia AI stack. All of Nvidia’s software runs on this.”
Huang said the computer is called Project Digits and runs off a relative of the Grace Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) that are currently powering the most advanced AI server clusters. The GPU is paired with an ARM-based Grace central processing unit (CPU). Nvidia worked with Chinese semiconductor company MediaTek to create the system-on-a chip called GB10.
Formerly known as the Consumer Electronics Show, CES is typically the spot to launch flashy and futuristic consumer gadgets. At this year’s show, which started on Tuesday and wraps up on Friday, several companies announced AI integrations with appliances, laptops and even grills. Other major announcements included a laptop from Lenovo which has a rollable screen that can expand vertically. There were also new robots, including a Roomba competitor with a robotic arm.
Unlike Nvidia’s traditional GPUs for gaming, Project Digits isn’t targeting consumers. instead, it’s aimed at machine learning researchers, smaller companies, and universities that want to developed advanced AI but don’t have the billions of dollars to build massive data centers or buy enough cloud credits.
“There’s a gaping hole for data scientists and ML researchers and who are actively working, who are actively building something,” Huang said. “Maybe you don’t need a giant cluster. You’re just developing the early versions of the model, and you’re iterating constantly. You could do it in the cloud, but it just costs a lot more money.”
The supercomputer will cost about $3,000 when it becomes available in May, Nvidia said, and will be available from the company itself as well as some of its manufacturing partners. Huang said Project Digits is a placeholder name, indicating it may change by the time the computer goes on sale.
“If you have a good name for it, reach out to us,” Huang said.
Diversifying its business
It’s a dramatically different kind of product from the GPUs that have driven Nvidia’s historic boom in the past two years. OpenAI, which launched ChatGPT in late 2022, and other AI model creators like Anthropic have joined with large cloud providers in snapping up Nvidia’s data center GPUs because of their ability to power the most intensive models and computing workloads.
Data center sales accounted for 88% of Nvidia’s $35 billion in revenue in the most recent quarter.
Wall Street is focused on Nvidia’s ability to diversify its business so that it’s less reliant on a handful of customers buying massive AI systems.
The Nvidia Project Digits supercomputer during the 2025 CES event in Las Vegas, Nevada, US, on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025.
Bridget Bennett | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“It was a little scary to see Nvidia come out with something so good for so little in price,” Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes wrote in a note this week. He said Nvidia may have “stolen the show,” due to Project Digits as well other announcements including graphics cards for gaming, new robot chips and a deal with Toyota.
Project Digits, which runs Linux and the same Nvidia software used on the company’s GPU server clusters, represents a huge increase in capabilities for researchers and universities, said David Bader, director of the Institute for Data Science at New Jersey Institute of Technology.
Bader, who has worked on research projects with Nvidia in the past, said the computer appears to be able to handle enough data and information to train the biggest and most cutting-edge models. He told CNBC Anthropic, Google, Amazon and others “would pay $100 million to build a super computer for training” to get a system with these sorts of capabilities.
For $3,000, users can soon get a product they can plug into a standard electrical outlet in their home or office, Bader said. It’s particularly exciting for academics, who have often left for private industry in order to access bigger and more powerful computers, he said.
“Any student who is able to have one of these systems that cost roughly the same as a high-end laptop or gaming laptop, they’ll be able to do the same research and build the same models,” Bader said.
Reitzes said the computer may be Nvidia’s first move into the $50 billion market for PC and laptop chips.
“It’s not too hard to imagine it would be easy to just do it all themselves and allow the system to run Windows someday,” Reitzes wrote. “But I guess they don’t want to step on too many toes.”
Huang didn’t rule out that possibility when asked about it by Wall Street analysts on Tuesday.
He said that MediaTek may be able to sell the GB10 chip to other computer makers in the market. He made sure to leave some mystery in the air.
“Obviously, we have plans,” Huang said.
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