The cost of living crisis will deepen next year as people continue to be hit with falling pay, higher taxes and soaring bills, a think tank has warned.
Households face a cost of living “groundhog year” with disposable incomes plummeting even further than in 2022 and living standards getting “far worse” before they improve, according to the Resolution Foundation.
This is due to the continued shrinking of pay packets in real terms, with wages remaining well below current levels of inflation well into 2024.
Although inflation looks set to have peaked, this does not equal lower prices, just smaller price rises, meaning families still face sky-high costs.
Resolution Foundation chief executive Torsten Bell said: “From a cost of living perspective, 2022 was a truly horrendous year – far worse than any year in the pandemic or financial crisis.
“2023 should see the back of double-digit inflation, but it looks set to be a groundhog year for many families whose incomes look set to fall by just as much as they did in 2022.”
Mr Bell said many families will be helped by benefits and the National Living Wage rising, both by around 10% next April.
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But he said this will be “swamped by shrinking pay packets, a record £900 rise in energy bills, tax bills for the typical household rising by £1,000, and millions seeing four digit increases in their mortgage bills”.
“For families’ living standards, things will get far worse in 2023 before they start to get better.”
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Surging energy prices have been the main driver of the cost of living crisis – mostly a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February that sent the price of many commodities such as wheat, and the price of producing them, through the roof.
But experts have also pointed to trade barriers caused by Brexit and the disastrous mini-budget of the Truss administration.
The measures will see a typical middle-income household’s personal tax bills jump by around £1,000 from April, according to the Resolution Foundation, which focuses on living standards.
On top of this, household energy spending is set to rise by a record £900 to £2,450 in 2023, up from £1,550 this year.
This is despite wholesale energy prices having dropped, as retail prices continue to climb and government support is scaled back.
Incomes are also being squeezed by rising interest rates, which mean some 2 million households will move onto more expensive fixed-rate mortgages, costing the average mortgage-holder £3,000 more a year.
People are four times as likely to think that their financial situation has worsened than improved over the past year, according to a Resolution Foundation-commissioned YouGov survey of 10,470 adults.
The poll also found that low-income families are three times as likely as high-income families to not feel confident about their financial situation over the next three months.
The analysis comes as the UK braces for further strike action next year, as unions representing many sectors seek pay rises in-line with inflation.
An analysis by the Trade Union Congress suggested that workers have lost £20,000, on average, in real wages since 2008 as a result of pay not keeping up with inflation, and by 2025 the loss will total £24,000.
In response to the Resolution Foundation’s report, the Treasury said it has increased child benefit and child tax credits in line with inflation and made changes to Universal Credit “so that working families can keep more of what they earn”.
The spokesperson added: “We also have a plan that will help to more than halve inflation next year, bearing down on the financial pressures that households face, and have already lifted millions of people out of paying tax altogether by raising the tax-free allowances for both income tax and National insurance by more than inflation since 2010.
“This is on top of substantial support with the cost of living, with everyone benefiting from energy bills being held down this winter and more than eight million vulnerable households having already received £1,200 in cash payments straight to their bank accounts – with a further £900 for those on means-tested benefits next year.”
The appointment of the inaugural chair of English football’s new watchdog has been thrown into fresh uncertainty after Whitehall officials resumed contact with applicants who did not make it onto a final shortlist.
Sky News has learnt that the preferred candidate to chair the Independent Football Regulator (IFR) is now “unlikely” to be drawn from a group of three contenders interviewed months ago.
The search process has not been officially reopened, and insiders said the £130,000-a-year post was not expected to be readvertised.
They acknowledged, however, that a shortlist including former Aston Villa Football Club chief executive Christian Purslow would probably not produce the chosen candidate.
Sky News revealed in recent weeks that the other contenders were Sanjay Bhandari, who chairs the anti-racism football charity Kick It Out, and Professor Sir Ian Kennedy, who chaired the new parliamentary watchdog established after the MPs expenses scandal.
The delay to the appointment of the IFR’s inaugural chair will do little to dampen recent speculation that Sir Keir Starmer wants to pare back the powers of the football regulator amid a broader clampdown on Britain’s economic watchdogs.
Both 10 Downing Street and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) have sought to dismiss the speculation, with insiders insisting that the IFR will be established as originally envisaged.
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The establishment of the regulator, which will be based in Manchester, is among the principal elements of legislation progressing through parliament.
The Football Governance Bill has just completed its journey through the House of Lords and will be introduced in the Commons shortly, according to a DCMS spokesman.
The establishment of the regulator, which was conceived by the previous Conservative government in the wake of the furore over the failed European Super League project, has triggered deep unrest in English football.
Steve Parish, the chairman of Premier League side Crystal Palace, told a recent sports industry conference that the watchdog “wants to interfere in all of the things we don’t need them to interfere in and help with none of the things we actually need help with”.
“We have a problem that we’re constantly being told that we’re not a business and [that] we’re part of the fabric of communities,” he is reported to have said.
“At the same time, we’re… being treated to the nth degree like a business.”
Interviews for the chair of the football regulator took place in November, with a previous recruitment process curtailed by the calling of last year’s general election.
Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, will sign off on the appointment of a preferred candidate, with the chosen individual expected to face a pre-appointment hearing in front of the Commons culture, media and sport select committee.
It forms part of a process that represents the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.
The establishment of the body comes with the top tier of the professional game gripped by civil war, with Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City at the centre of a number of legal cases over its financial dealings.
The government has dropped a previous stipulation that the regulator should have regard to British foreign and trade policy when determining the appropriateness of a new club owner.
“We do not comment on speculation,” the DCMS said when asked about the process to recruit a chair of the football watchdog.
“No appointment has been made and the recruitment process for [IFR] chair is ongoing.”
MPs will today debate emergency laws to save British Steel after the prime minister warned the country’s “economic and national security is on the line”.
Sir Keir Starmer said the future of the company’s Scunthorpe plant – which employs about 3,500 people – “hangs in the balance” after its owner said the cost of running it was unsustainable.
The prime minister said legislation would be passed in one day to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options”.
MPs and Lords are being summoned from their Easter recess to debate the move and will sit from 11am.
The last time parliament was recalled was on 18 August 2021 to debate the situation in Afghanistan.
The government has been considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, the Chinese owner, cancelled future orders for iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the blast furnaces running.
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The furnaces are the last in the UK capable of making virgin steel.
The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without it, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.
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3:31
Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces
In a statement on Friday, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.
“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance. Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”
The prime minister said steel was “part of our national story, part of the pride and heritage of this nation” and “essential for our future”.
He said the emergency law would give the business secretary powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.
This includes the power to direct the company’s board and workforce. It will also ensure it can order the raw materials to keep the furnaces running and ensure staff are paid.
Image: The Scunthorpe plant is the last in the UK that can make virgin steel. Pic: Reuters
Image: One of the two blast furnaces at Scunthorpe
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”, while Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the owner had left the government with “no choice”.
Mr Reynolds said Jingye had confirmed plans to close the Scunthorpe furnaces immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment.
The company said it had invested £1.2bn since taking over in 2020, but that the plant is losing £700,000 a day.
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1:15
What will happen with British Steel?
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government had landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.
She said when she was business secretary, she had negotiated a plan with British Steel “to limit job losses and keep the plant running”.
Ms Badenoch said the government had “bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable”.
She added: “Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”
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Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government didn’t take similar action there.
The party’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, said: “Parliament is being recalled to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.
“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.”
Sir Keir Starmer has said the government will debate emergency legislation on Saturday to keep the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe open as “our economic and national security is on the line”.
The prime minister added that “the future of British Steel hangs in the balance” and legislation will be passed tomorrow to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options” for it.
MPs and Lords are being summoned back from Easter recess to Westminster to debate draft legislation on the plans, and will sit from 11am on Saturday.
The government had been actively considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, its Chinese owner in Scunthorpe, cancelled future orders for the iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the last blast furnaces in the UK running.
Jingye also rejected a £500m state rescue package in a move which raised fresh doubts about the 3,500 jobs at the Lincolnshire plant – with it feared the site would be forced to close as early as next week.
The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without the plant, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.
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In a short statement delivered from Downing Street this evening, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.
“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance.
“Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”
Image: One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel’s Scunthorpe operation
‘A new era of global instability’
The prime minister added he has been to the site in Scunthorpe and met the steelworkers there.
He said he understands how “important steel is” to the “whole country” and continued: “It’s part of our national story, Part of the pride and heritage of this nation.
“And I’ll tell you this, it is essential for our future.
“[The government’s] plan for change means we need more steel, not less. So we will act with urgency… This situation and our response is unique.
“While it is true that we’re facing a new era of global instability, our concerns about this plant and negotiations to protect it have been running for years.”
Sir Keir said parliament will be recalled for a “Saturday sitting” and will “pass emergency legislation” in “one day” to give the business secretary the powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.
He added: “We will keep all options on the table. Our future is in our hands.”
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves posted on X after the statement that the government is “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”.
“We are securing Britain’s future,” she added.
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3:31
Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces
Tory leader criticises Starmer
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said this evening the Chinese owner of British steel has left the government with “no choice” but to act.
Jingye had confirmed plans to close the blast furnaces at Scunthorpe immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment from the UK government, Mr Reynolds added in a statement.
It came as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government has landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.
“As business secretary, I negotiated a modernisation plan with British Steel to limit job losses and keep the plant running, including introducing an electric arc furnace in Teesside, similar to what we did with Tata at Port Talbot steelworks.
“However, the union-led Labour government have bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable. Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”
She added the government’s attempts to find a solution to the crisis are inevitably “going to cost taxpayers a lot of money”.
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Image: British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
Meanwhile, the Unite union welcomed Sir Keir’s announcement by saying it is “absolutely the right thing to do to begin the process of nationalisation”.
The government has not confirmed plans to nationalise the company, but like the prime minister this evening, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said earlier this week that “all options” are on the table.
Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said this evening: “I am pleased that the government has listened to representations by Unite and other steel unions over the future of British Steel.
“Ministers could not have allowed a foundation industry to go under with the loss of more than 3,000 jobs and key skills… Discussions have been positive and whilst a longer-term plan needs to be developed, this gives workers the reprieve we have been asking for.”
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Welsh political party Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government did not take similar action to save that steelworks.
The party’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said: “Parliament is being recalled [on Saturday] to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.
“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.
“In a real emergency, governments step up to defend their strategic interests. Plaid Cymru recognised the importance of Welsh steelmaking. Labour chose to look the other way.
“When it was Wales, they mocked. Now it’s England, they act.
“Labour has taken Wales for granted for far too long – and the people of Wales won’t forget it.”