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The cost of living crisis will deepen next year as people continue to be hit with falling pay, higher taxes and soaring bills, a think tank has warned.

Households face a cost of living “groundhog year” with disposable incomes plummeting even further than in 2022 and living standards getting “far worse” before they improve, according to the Resolution Foundation.

This is due to the continued shrinking of pay packets in real terms, with wages remaining well below current levels of inflation well into 2024.

Although inflation looks set to have peaked, this does not equal lower prices, just smaller price rises, meaning families still face sky-high costs.

Resolution Foundation chief executive Torsten Bell said: “From a cost of living perspective, 2022 was a truly horrendous year – far worse than any year in the pandemic or financial crisis.

“2023 should see the back of double-digit inflation, but it looks set to be a groundhog year for many families whose incomes look set to fall by just as much as they did in 2022.”

Mr Bell said many families will be helped by benefits and the National Living Wage rising, both by around 10% next April.

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But he said this will be “swamped by shrinking pay packets, a record £900 rise in energy bills, tax bills for the typical household rising by £1,000, and millions seeing four digit increases in their mortgage bills”.

“For families’ living standards, things will get far worse in 2023 before they start to get better.”

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2022 : An economic slowdown

This year saw the biggest annual fall in disposable income in a century as well as a collapse in living standards.

Surging energy prices have been the main driver of the cost of living crisis – mostly a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February that sent the price of many commodities such as wheat, and the price of producing them, through the roof.

But experts have also pointed to trade barriers caused by Brexit and the disastrous mini-budget of the Truss administration.

In his Autumn Statement, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced a raft of tax hikes to help fill a £54bn black hole.

The measures will see a typical middle-income household’s personal tax bills jump by around £1,000 from April, according to the Resolution Foundation, which focuses on living standards.

On top of this, household energy spending is set to rise by a record £900 to £2,450 in 2023, up from £1,550 this year.

This is despite wholesale energy prices having dropped, as retail prices continue to climb and government support is scaled back.

Incomes are also being squeezed by rising interest rates, which mean some 2 million households will move onto more expensive fixed-rate mortgages, costing the average mortgage-holder £3,000 more a year.

People are four times as likely to think that their financial situation has worsened than improved over the past year, according to a Resolution Foundation-commissioned YouGov survey of 10,470 adults.

The poll also found that low-income families are three times as likely as high-income families to not feel confident about their financial situation over the next three months.

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The analysis comes as the UK braces for further strike action next year, as unions representing many sectors seek pay rises in-line with inflation.

An analysis by the Trade Union Congress suggested that workers have lost £20,000, on average, in real wages since 2008 as a result of pay not keeping up with inflation, and by 2025 the loss will total £24,000.

The government is being urged to negotiate to prevent coordinated industrial action, but on Thursday Defence Secretary Ben Wallace insisted there is “no magic wand” to produce money for the pay demands.

In response to the Resolution Foundation’s report, the Treasury said it has increased child benefit and child tax credits in line with inflation and made changes to Universal Credit “so that working families can keep more of what they earn”.

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The spokesperson added: “We also have a plan that will help to more than halve inflation next year, bearing down on the financial pressures that households face, and have already lifted millions of people out of paying tax altogether by raising the tax-free allowances for both income tax and National insurance by more than inflation since 2010.

“This is on top of substantial support with the cost of living, with everyone benefiting from energy bills being held down this winter and more than eight million vulnerable households having already received £1,200 in cash payments straight to their bank accounts – with a further £900 for those on means-tested benefits next year.”

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Staveley forced to clarify Spurs bid intention after Levy exit

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Staveley forced to clarify Spurs bid intention after Levy exit

Amanda Staveley, the former Newcastle United Football Club joint-owner, will on Monday be forced to clarify her interest in bidding for Premier League club Tottenham Hotspur following veteran chairman Daniel Levy’s unexpected departure last week.

Sky News has learnt that PCP International Finance, a vehicle controlled by Ms Staveley, is expected to issue a statement following discussions with the UK takeover watchdog saying that she does not intend to make a formal offer for Spurs.

People close to the situation said on Sunday that Ms Staveley had been in discussions with prospective backers of a bid for the club in recent weeks.

Spurs’ ownership is complicated by the fact that it is subject to the UK Takeover Code – governed by the Takeover Panel.

Under the provisions in the Code, PCP could yet return with a formal takeover bid for Spurs if invited to do so by the board of Enic, or if a rival bidder announces its intention to make a firms offer for last season’s Europa League winners.

City sources pointed to these caveats as being particularly relevant to Ms Staveley’s potential ongoing interest in Spurs.

Enic owns a stake of nearly 87% in the club, with the remaining shares owned by a group of minority investors.

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Daniel Levy. Pic: PA
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Daniel Levy. Pic: PA

Mr Levy reportedly owns a stake of almost 30% in Enic, while Joe Lewis, Enic’s majority-owner, transferred control of his stake in Spurs to his family trust in 2022.

A source close to the Lewis family said on Sunday evening: “The club is not for sale.”

His exit last week after nearly 25 years as Tottenham chairman was apparently driven by a desire to inject fresh momentum into the leadership of the club.

In a statement last week, it said: “Tottenham Hotspur has been transformed over the last quarter of a century.

“It has played in European competitions in the last 18 of 20 seasons, becoming one of the world’s most recognised football clubs, consistently investing in its academy, players and facilities, including a new, world-class stadium and state of the art training centre.”

Rothschild, the investment bank, had previously been engaged by Mr Levy to raise hundreds of millions of capital to invest in Spurs.

Those discussions are understood to have involved a range of parties in the past year.

Any takeover bid for Spurs, regardless of the identity of the bidder, would be likely to value at well in excess of £3.5bn for it to be deemed acceptable.

A spokesman for Ms Staveley declined to comment on Sunday evening.

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Lloyds closes in on £120m takeover of fintech Curve

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Lloyds closes in on £120m takeover of fintech Curve

Britain’s biggest high street lender is closing in on a deal to buy Curve, a provider of digital wallet technology that its new owner hopes will give it an edge in the race to build smarter online payments systems.

Sky News has learnt that Lloyds Banking Group could announce the acquisition of Curve for about £120m as soon as this week.

City sources said this weekend that the terms of a transaction had been agreed, although a formal announcement could yet slip to later in the month.

Lloyds has been in talks with Curve about a takeover for some time, with Sky News revealing that discussions were taking place in July.

The financial services giant, which owns the Halifax brand and operates the biggest bank branch network in the UK, believes Curve’s digital wallet platform will be a valuable asset amid growing regulatory pressure on Apple to open its payment services to rivals.

Curve was founded by Shachar Bialick, a former Israeli special forces soldier, in 2016, and was hailed as one of Britain’s most promising fintechs.

Three years later, Mr Bialick told an interviewer: “In 10 years’ time we are going to be IPOed [listed on the public equity markets]… and hopefully worth around $50bn to $60bn.”

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The sale price may therefore be a disappointment to long-standing Curve shareholders, given that it raised £133m in its Series C funding round, which concluded in 2023.

That round included backing from Britannia, IDC Ventures, Cercano Management – the venture arm of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s estate – and Outward VC.

Curve was also reported to have raised more than £40m last year, while reducing employee numbers and suspending its US expansion.

In total, the company has raised more than £200m in equity since it was founded.

Curve is being advised by KBW, part of the investment bank Stifel, on the discussions with Lloyds.

The company is chaired by the City grandee Lord Fink, who is also a shareholder in the company.

Curve has been positioned as a rival to Apple Pay in recent years, having initially launched as an app enabling consumers to combine their debit and credit cards in a single wallet.

Curve Pay is a digital wallet, which combines a person's credit and debit cards into a single wallet
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Curve Pay is a digital wallet, which combines a person’s credit and debit cards into a single wallet

Lloyds is said to have identified Curve as a strategically attractive bid target as it pushes deeper into payments infrastructure under chief executive Charlie Nunn.

In March, the Financial Conduct Authority and Payment Systems Regulator began working with the Competition and Markets Authority to examine the implications of the growth of digital wallets owned by Apple and Google.

Lloyds owns stakes in a number of fintechs, including the banking-as-a-service platform Thought Machine, but has set expanding its tech capabilities as a key strategic objective.

The group employs more than 70,000 people and operates more than 700 branches across Britain.

Curve is chaired by Lord Fink, the former Man Group chief executive who has become a prolific investor in British technology start-ups.

Read more from Sky News:
Unions demand no retreat on workers’ rights
Tube strikes: Everything you need to know

When he was appointed to the role in January, he said: “Working alongside Curve as an investor, I have had a ringside seat to the company’s unassailable and well-earned rise.

“Beginning as a card which combines all your cards into one, to the all-encompassing digital wallet it has evolved into, Curve offers a transformative financial management experience to its users.

“I am proud to have been part of the journey so far, and welcome the chance to support the company through its next, very significant period of growth.”

IDC Ventures, one of the investors in Curve’s Series C funding round, said at the time of its last major fundraising: “Thanks to their unique technology… they have the capability to intercept the transaction and supercharge the customer experience, with its Double Dip Rewards, [and] eliminating nasty hidden fees.

“And they do it seamlessly, without any need for the customer to change the cards they pay with.”

News of the talks between Lloyds and Curve comes days before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is expected to outline plans to bolster Britain’s fintech sector by endorsing a concierge service to match start-ups with investors.

Lloyds declined to comment, while Curve has been contacted for comment.

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Unions demand no retreat on workers’ rights after Rayner quits

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Unions demand no retreat on workers' rights after Rayner quits

Union leaders are demanding no eleventh-hour retreat by the government on workers’ rights now their champion Angela Rayner is no longer in the cabinet.

As delegates gather in Brighton for the TUC’s annual conference, the movement’s leadership is claiming four million people – one in eight of the UK workforce – are in “pervasive” insecure work.

And union bosses are urging the government to stand firm and reject attempts by Tories and Liberal Democrats to weaken the former deputy prime minister’s Employment Rights Bill in its final stages in parliament.

The TUC’s general secretary, Paul Nowak, has claimed Ms Rayner, who resigned on Friday over unpaid stamp duty on a seaside flat, was a victim of misogyny and was being hounded out by right-wing politicians and right-wing media.

Paul Nowak believes Angela Rayner was a victim of misogyny
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Paul Nowak believes Angela Rayner was a victim of misogyny


As well as Ms Rayner leaving the government, the other minister driving the bill through parliament, Jonathan Reynolds, was demoted in Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet reshuffle from the senior post of business secretary to chief whip.

Until last week, Ms Rayner had been expected to deliver the keynote Labour Party speech at the TUC on Tuesday, but it emerged midweek that the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, would be the speaker.

However, in Friday’s reshuffle she lost responsibility for adult skills – a key issue for the unions – to the new work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden, who will now head a new, beefed-up super-ministry promoting growth.

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And ironically, the TUC conference in Brighton is taking place less than two miles from the luxury seaside flat in Hove, on which Ms Rayner’s avoidance of £40,000 in stamp duty led to her resignation as deputy PM, housing secretary and Labour deputy leader.

Just before parliament’s summer recess, the House of Lords backed by 304 votes to 160 a Tory-led amendment to Ms Rayner’s bill to reduce the qualifying period for unfair dismissal claims from two years to six months, rather than from day one, as proposed by Ms Rayner.

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The rise and fall of Angela Rayner

Third reading of the bill in the Lords was last Wednesday, the day of Ms Rayner’s Sky News confession, and the bill is now set for parliamentary ping-pong, assuming the government overturns the Lords’ amendments in the Commons.

But in a pre-conference interview with Sky News, TUC chief and Rayner supporter Mr Nowak demanded no diluting of her bill, which also includes banning zero hours contracts which exploit workers and fire and rehire.

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“We are now at a crucial stage in the delivery of the Employment Rights Bill, just weeks away from Royal Assent,” said Mr Nowak. “And our clear message to the government will be to deliver the bill and deliver it in full.

“Ignore the amendments from the unelected peers, Tory and Lib Dem peers in the House of Lords, that are aimed at gutting the legislation, weakening workers’ rights.

“Stand with the British public, deliver decent employment rights. That’s important in workplaces up and down the country, but it’s important because these are proposals that are popular with the British public as well.”

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson will be making a speech at the TUC's conference
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Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson will be making a speech at the TUC’s conference

The TUC says its analysis shows low-paid jobs in occupations such as the care, leisure and service sectors account for 77% of the increase in insecure jobs since 2011.

Black and ethnic minority ethnic workers account for 70% of the explosion in insecure work, according to the TUC, and southwest England and Yorkshire and Humber are insecure work hotspots.

Mr Nowak told Sky News: “We’ve got well over a million people now on zero-hours contracts. We’ve got millions of people who don’t have sick pay from day one and 70% of the kids who live in poverty have parents who go out to work.

“The government is absolutely right to be focused on making work pay. And the Employment Rights Bill is about putting more money in the pockets of working people, giving people more security at work.

“That’s good for workers, but it’s also good for good employers as well, so they’re not undercut by the cowboys.”

Speaking to Sky News last Wednesday, shortly after Ms Rayner’s tearful confession to Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby, Mr Nowak said: “There’s a real heavy dose of misogyny when it comes to Angela.

“Angela Rayner is playing a really important role in government and I wouldn’t want to see her hounded out of an important role by right-wing politicians and the right-wing media, who frankly can’t handle the fact that a working-class woman is our deputy prime minister.”

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