‘Strong possibility’ Ukraine retakes all territory by end of 2023 – apart from Crimea
Ukraine has a good chance to liberate all its territory – apart from Crimea – by the end of 2023, a military expert says.
Cities like Severodonetsk, Melitopol and even Mariupol could be liberated if Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forces keep up their counteroffensive success, according to former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram.
As we approach the end of a year that has seen Vladimir Putin’s Russia invade its neighbour, causing untold destruction and bringing about the unprecedented return of war in Europe, Sky News looks at what could happen in Ukraine in 2023.
In the months since the February 24 invasion that saw Kremlin forces come within striking distance of Kyiv, Ukrainian defenders have reclaimed more than half of the land captured by Russia since the beginning of the war.
President Zelenskyy has insisted that his troops will eventually liberate all its territory, including areas in the Donbas and Crimea that have been occupied since 2014.
While experts remain split on whether that will ultimately be possible, Ukraine’s forces have demonstrated their mettle and determination again and again on the battlefield.
The early days of the war saw the historic defence of the port city of Mariupol, in which a small band of troops held out for 82 days against appalling odds – buying crucial time for defence forces elsewhere to regroup and obtain Western weapons.
More recently, stunning counterattacks in the east and south have sent Russian forces retreating from Kharkiv and Kherson.
Read more:
People ‘risk freezing to death’ amid attacks on power grid
Putin could use peace talks ‘as excuse to rearm’
So what could happen next year?
Former intelligence officer Mr Ingram says it could all depend on what Ukraine does in the next few weeks as it seeks to advance again.
He told Sky News: “If their next counteroffensive is as successful as the two they have done already – and I see no reason why it shouldn’t be – there’s definitely a strong possibility that they have recaptured all the territory in mainland Ukraine by the end of the year.
“So I think 2023 will be a year of further Ukrainian counteroffensives and successes.
“I think at that point we will be discussing the potential of operations to recapture Crimea.”
Mr Ingram said further Ukrainian successes would lead to an increase in dissent within Russia, perhaps putting the rule of President Putin at risk.
He said the recapture of Mariupol in particular would have a huge psychological impact.
However not all experts agree on this future for Ukraine over the next 12 months.
The attack on the Kerch Bridge at Crimea was a major event in the war. Pic: AP
Supplies of Western weapons ‘not a bottomless pit’
Retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell argued that the West can only support Ukraine for so long, as weapons supplies dwindle and the resolve of some countries perhaps weakens amid high energy prices at home.
“When you look at the scale of the weapons that have been provided, there’s not a bottomless pit,” he told Sky News.
“It’s very difficult militarily to see the West being able to sustain Ukraine for more than a year.”
He said that while President Zelenskyy is publicly calling for the return of all territory, behind closed doors he may be talking “pragmatically” about the future.
“I think that’s where you have great statesmanship, because if winning is about securing more territory then, yes, Putin’s won.
“If Putin strategic aims are actually to halt the expansion of NATO, that has failed.
“If its aim is to restore Russia’s greatness, that has failed. If it’s to create a more powerful economy, that has failed.
“So depending on what metric we choose from a grand strategic perspective, it’s very difficult to see this invasion being anything other than abject failure.”
He said it could well be that a peace is ultimately brokered where President Zelenskyy blames the West for forcing his hand but privately accepts that it is the only way to stop further loss of life.
Russia has launched a “massive” drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital overnight, after Moscow itself was targeted.
Amid flailing peace talks, the Kremlin’s nightly attacks on Ukraine continued.
Ukraine war – follow the latest updates
A large-scale Russian attack through the night into Sunday injured at least 11 in Kyiv and killed three people in towns surrounding the capital.
There were attacks elsewhere as well, including drone strikes in Mykolaiv, where a residential building was hit.
An apartment building destroyed after a Russian attack in Mykolaiv. Pic: State Emergency Service of Ukraine
‘Massive’ attack
In Kyiv, the city’s administration warned “the night will be difficult”, as people were urged to remain in shelters.
The city’s mayor Vitaliy Klitschko described it as a “massive” attack.
He said: “Explosions in the city. Air defence forces are working. The capital is under attack by enemy UAVs. Do not neglect your safety! Stay in shelters!”
It came after at least 15 people were injured in attacks the night prior.
Russia claimed it also faced a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday, and that it intercepted and destroyed around 100 of them near Moscow and across Russia’s central and southern regions.
A municipality worker cleans up after a Russian drone strike on Kyiv. Pic: Reuters
Russia ‘dragging out the war’
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continued a prisoner exchange, marking a rare moment of cooperation in the war.
Amid the most recent attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeated his calls for sanctions on Russia.
Russia “fills each day with horror and murder” and is “simply dragging out the war”, he said.
A resident looks at an apartment building that was damaged in a Russian drone strike. Pic: Reuters
“All of this demands a response – a strong response from the United States, from Europe, and from everyone in the world who wants this war to end,” Mr Zelenskyy added.
Every day “gives new grounds for sanctions against Russia”, he said, and each day without pressure proves the “war will continue”.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is ready for “any form of diplomacy that delivers real results”.
Nine of a doctor’s 10 children have been killed in an Israeli missile strike on their home in Gaza, which also left her surviving son badly injured and her husband in a critical condition.
Warning: This article contains details of child deaths
Alaa Al Najjar, a paediatrician at Al Tahrir Clinic in the Nasser Medical Complex, was at work during the attack on her home, south of the city of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, on Friday.
Graphic footage shared by the Hamas-run Palestinian Civil Defence shows the bodies of at least seven small children being pulled from the rubble.
Rescuers can be seen battling fires and searching through a collapsed building, shouting out when they locate a body, before bringing the children out one by one and wrapping their remains in body bags.
In the footage, Dr Al Najjar’s husband, Hamdi Al Najjar, who is also a doctor, is put on to a stretcher and then carried to an ambulance.
The oldest of their children was only 12 years old, according to Dr Muneer Alboursh, the director general of Gaza’s health ministry, which is run by Hamas.
Nine children were killed in the strike. Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence
“This is the reality our medical staff in Gaza endure. Words fall short in describing the pain,” he wrote in a social media post.
“In Gaza, it is not only healthcare workers who are targeted – Israel’s aggression goes further, wiping out entire families.”
Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence
British doctors describe ‘horrific’ and ‘unimaginable’ attack
Two British doctors working at Nasser Hospital described the attack as “horrific” and “unimaginable” for Dr Al Najjar.
Speaking in a video diary on Friday night, Dr Graeme Groom said his last patient of the day was Dr Al Najjar’s 11-year-old son, who was badly injured and “seemed much younger as we lifted him on to the operating table”.
Hamdi Al Najjar, Dr Al Najjar’s husband who is also a doctor, was taken to hospital. Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence
The strike “may or may not have been aimed at his father”, Dr Groom said, adding that the man had been left “very badly injured”.
Dr Victoria Rose said the family “lived opposite a petrol station, so I don’t know whether the bomb set off some massive fire”.
Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence
‘No political or military connections’
Dr Groom added: “It is unimaginable for that poor woman, both of them are doctors here.
“The father was a physician at Nasser Hospital. He had no political and no military connections. He doesn’t seem to be prominent on social media, and yet his poor wife is the only uninjured one, who has the prospect of losing her husband.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Nineteen of Gaza’s hospitals remain operational, all of them are overwhelmed with the number of patients and a lack of supplies
He said it was “a particularly sad day”, while Dr Rose added: “That is life in Gaza. That is the way it goes in Gaza.”
Sky News has approached the Israeli Defence Forces for comment.
Read more:
Mum of emaciated baby in Gaza says ‘I don’t want to lose her’
Dad wrongly pronounced dead in Israeli bombing killed in airstrike
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza began when the militant group stormed across the border into Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and abducting 251 others.
Israel’s military response has flattened large areas of Gaza and killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count.
World
UN’s Antonio Guterres condemns ‘teaspoon’ of aid allowed into Gaza after dozens die in airstrikes
The head of the UN has said Israel has only authorised for Gaza what amounts to a “teaspoon” of aid after at least 60 people died in overnight airstrikes.
UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said on Friday the supplies approved so far “amounts to a teaspoon of aid when a flood of assistance is required,” adding “the needs are massive and the obstacles are staggering”.
He warned that more people will die unless there is “rapid, reliable, safe and sustained aid access”.
A woman at the site of an Israeli strike in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Gaza: ‘Loads of children with huge burns’
Israel says around 300 aid trucks have been allowed through since it lifted an 11-week blockade on Monday, but according to Mr Guterres, only about a third have been transported to warehouses within Gaza due to insecurity.
The IDF said 107 vehicles carrying flour, food, medical equipment and drugs were allowed through on Thursday.
Many of Gaza’s two million residents are at high risk of famine, experts have warned.
Meanwhile, at least 60 people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes across Gaza overnight.
Ten people died in the southern city of Khan Younis, and deaths were also reported in the central town of Deir al-Balah and the Jabaliya refugee camp in the north, according to the Nasser, Al-Aqsa and Al-Ahli hospitals where the bodies were brought.
A body is carried out of rubble after an Israeli strike in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Almost everyone depends on aid’ in Gaza
The latest strikes came a day after two Israeli embassy workers were killed in Washington.
The suspect, named as 31-year-old Elias Rodriguez from Chicago, Illinois, told police he “did it for Gaza”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Mark Carney of fuelling antisemitism following the shootings.
The leaders of the UK, France and Canada are “on the wrong side of humanity and (…) history”, he said, after they threatened “concrete action” against Israel this week if it continues its “egregious” military operations in Gaza.
Mr Netanyahu also accused Sir Keir, Mr Macron and Mr Carney of siding with “mass murderers, rapists, baby killers and kidnappers”.
Palestinians search for casualties in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
But UK government minister Luke Pollard told Sky News on Friday morning he “doesn’t recognise” Mr Netanyahu’s accusation.
Earlier this week, Mr Netanyahu said he was recalling negotiators from the Qatari capital, Doha, after a week of ceasefire talks failed to bring results. A working team will remain.
The war in Gaza began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251 others.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Read more on Sky News:
Shooting suspect ‘fired repeatedly’
Huge fire declared major incident
Has there been a rise in NHS appointments?
The militants are still holding 58 captives, around a third of whom are believed to be alive, after most of the rest were returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Israel’s offensive, which has destroyed large swaths of Gaza, has killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway