‘Strong possibility’ Ukraine retakes all territory by end of 2023 – apart from Crimea
Ukraine has a good chance to liberate all its territory – apart from Crimea – by the end of 2023, a military expert says.
Cities like Severodonetsk, Melitopol and even Mariupol could be liberated if Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forces keep up their counteroffensive success, according to former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram.
As we approach the end of a year that has seen Vladimir Putin’s Russia invade its neighbour, causing untold destruction and bringing about the unprecedented return of war in Europe, Sky News looks at what could happen in Ukraine in 2023.
In the months since the February 24 invasion that saw Kremlin forces come within striking distance of Kyiv, Ukrainian defenders have reclaimed more than half of the land captured by Russia since the beginning of the war.
President Zelenskyy has insisted that his troops will eventually liberate all its territory, including areas in the Donbas and Crimea that have been occupied since 2014.
While experts remain split on whether that will ultimately be possible, Ukraine’s forces have demonstrated their mettle and determination again and again on the battlefield.
The early days of the war saw the historic defence of the port city of Mariupol, in which a small band of troops held out for 82 days against appalling odds – buying crucial time for defence forces elsewhere to regroup and obtain Western weapons.
More recently, stunning counterattacks in the east and south have sent Russian forces retreating from Kharkiv and Kherson.
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So what could happen next year?
Former intelligence officer Mr Ingram says it could all depend on what Ukraine does in the next few weeks as it seeks to advance again.
He told Sky News: “If their next counteroffensive is as successful as the two they have done already – and I see no reason why it shouldn’t be – there’s definitely a strong possibility that they have recaptured all the territory in mainland Ukraine by the end of the year.
“So I think 2023 will be a year of further Ukrainian counteroffensives and successes.
“I think at that point we will be discussing the potential of operations to recapture Crimea.”
Mr Ingram said further Ukrainian successes would lead to an increase in dissent within Russia, perhaps putting the rule of President Putin at risk.
He said the recapture of Mariupol in particular would have a huge psychological impact.
However not all experts agree on this future for Ukraine over the next 12 months.
The attack on the Kerch Bridge at Crimea was a major event in the war. Pic: AP
Supplies of Western weapons ‘not a bottomless pit’
Retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell argued that the West can only support Ukraine for so long, as weapons supplies dwindle and the resolve of some countries perhaps weakens amid high energy prices at home.
“When you look at the scale of the weapons that have been provided, there’s not a bottomless pit,” he told Sky News.
“It’s very difficult militarily to see the West being able to sustain Ukraine for more than a year.”
He said that while President Zelenskyy is publicly calling for the return of all territory, behind closed doors he may be talking “pragmatically” about the future.
“I think that’s where you have great statesmanship, because if winning is about securing more territory then, yes, Putin’s won.
“If Putin strategic aims are actually to halt the expansion of NATO, that has failed.
“If its aim is to restore Russia’s greatness, that has failed. If it’s to create a more powerful economy, that has failed.
“So depending on what metric we choose from a grand strategic perspective, it’s very difficult to see this invasion being anything other than abject failure.”
He said it could well be that a peace is ultimately brokered where President Zelenskyy blames the West for forcing his hand but privately accepts that it is the only way to stop further loss of life.
World
Trump criticises Putin after potentially ‘historic’ meeting with Zelenskyy before Pope’s funeral
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
Follow live updates: 200,000 mourn at Vatican
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish armed forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening.
“The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is testing the readiness of our air defence systems,” they said in a post on X.
On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
Leaning forward hands together in their laps, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stare at each other in one photo.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
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