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Christmas is still ahead of us, and yet the baseball industry has already spent in record numbers and signed away most of the best available players. Twenty-four of the top 25 free agents, as ranked by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel in early November, have already chosen new teams, signing deals totaling close to $2.8 billion.

But it isn’t just the amount of money that is jarring — it’s the length of time teams are willing to pay it.

In the history of MLB free agency, only four players have received deals that have extended beyond 10 years — and three of those came this month. Trea Turner agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies on Dec. 5, Xander Bogaerts got 11 years and $280 million from the San Diego Padres on Dec. 8 and Carlos Correa landed with the New York Mets on a 12-year, $315 million contract — one week after agreeing to a 13-year, $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants that fell apart over a disagreement about his physical.

Turner and Bogaerts will be paid through their age-40 seasons. Correa and Aaron Judge, who accepted a nine-year, $360 million contract to return to the New York Yankees, are locked up through age 39.

The idea of signing a player for a decade or more on a deal that will almost certainly take him to the very end of his career seems counterintuitive to modern roster construction. Front offices are smarter, more analytically minded than ever, hyper-focused on efficiency and well-schooled on the deficiencies of players in their mid to late 30s. The sport itself, proliferated by devastating breaking balls and triple-digit fastballs, has never been more unkind to the slower reaction times of those approaching middle age. And yet teams are handing out long-term contracts like never before. Ten of the past 11 deals signed for 10 or more years have come since 2019, and this offseason has taken that approach to a new level.

What gives? ESPN spoke to more than a dozen people in the industry, most of them executives and agents, in an effort to figure out why prolonged contracts are suddenly the rage. Three main theories emerged.

Lower AAVs are valuable

The most popular reason given to explain the plethora of long-term deals was simply that lengthening out a contract is an easy way to minimize present-day costs.

One in particular embodied that sentiment: Bryce Harper‘s 13-year, $330 million agreement with the Phillies, obtained near the end of February in 2019. Harper, represented by Scott Boras, perceivably entered free agency with a desire to top Giancarlo Stanton‘s $325 million extension and thus set a record for total guarantee. To attain it, he accepted a lower average annual value, of about $25 million, which in turn helped the Phillies reduce the deal’s year-to-year impact on the luxury tax. (AAV, not year-to-year salary, is used to calculate where teams reside in relation to the luxury tax threshold.)

Harper’s deal lies in stark contrast with the short-term, high-AAV deals that have also populated the industry in recent years, obtained by Trevor Bauer (three years and $102 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers), Max Scherzer (three years and $130 million from the Mets) and Justin Verlander (two years and $86.7 million from the Mets). Those deals drove up prices; Harper’s provided an alternate path for players who sought to cash in similarly.

“I think for a period of time, agents weren’t really letting that be on the table and were focused on the AAV,” an assistant general manager said. “So now there are opportunities for higher AAVs and opportunities for longer deals. Before, no one was doing the Verlander contract, so the only path was the deals that were signed.”

Correa has lived both worlds, obtaining a $35.1 million AAV on a short-term deal with the Minnesota Twins last year, then opting out and ultimately getting $315 million from the Mets. As one agent said: “This is really about the luxury tax.”

The new collective bargaining agreement included a relatively large increase in the luxury tax threshold, jumping nearly 10% from 2021 to 2022. But the repercussions were also stiffer, with a fourth tier introduced and other draft-related penalties looming. Teams now have more room to maneuver, but also a desire to maintain the flexibility to get back under the threshold and avoid escalating repeater penalties.

The luxury tax threshold is $233 million for the 2023 season, a $23 million increase from where it stood as recently as 2021, with an overage rate of 20%. But the rates multiply significantly depending on the amount teams go over by and how many consecutive years they do so, getting as high as 110%. Teams can also be stripped of draft picks and lose international-bonus-pool money. It has prompted them to pivot. A recent FanGraphs article also made the point that the nation’s economy, specifically federal interest rates, has motivated teams to stretch dollars out into future years.

The contracts for Correa, Turner and Bogaerts all rank within the top 15 all-time in total value — but none are within the top 25 in AAV.

“Rates are going up, and it makes sense to stretch out this money over time,” another agent said. “Teams can do some savvy financial work on the back end to cover the financial implications of the future costs of the contract. But also, stretching out the deals and lowering the AAV allows teams to have more flexibility under the new CBT thresholds, especially if they go up. The back end of deals are essentially all deferred money. Teams know they are eating the last few years of the contract.”

Players are starting earlier, potentially aging better

The combination of getting to free agency earlier and theoretically, with the help of modern technology, maintaining production at an older age, could be as important as anything in the discussion of long-term contracts. In the past, achieving the six years of service time required for free agency often meant players hit the open market in their 30s. But players — especially star-caliber prospects — often are matriculating through minor league systems at a faster rate, debuting in the majors earlier and therefore becoming free agents sooner.

The past three offseasons have seen 581 players become free agents before turning 30, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information. If you go back nearly a decade, to the three-year span from 2012 to 2014, that number was only 182. The game, in essence, keeps getting younger. Correa (28) and Turner (29) have yet to reach their 30s. When Shohei Ohtani reaches free agency next offseason, he’ll be 29. When Juan Soto follows two years later, he’ll be 26. They, too, might attain decade-plus-long contracts.

“There happens to be a bunch of really good players that happen to be young for free agents,” another assistant GM said. “That’s helping teams feel OK about it. Players aren’t spending a full year at every level. The system is getting them to the big leagues quicker and to free agency earlier. Giving out a decade-long contract — or even longer — at 28 or even 29 is much different than at 31 or 32. Players can perform at 40 or 41, especially with the [designated hitter] in both leagues. Maybe not as much at 43 or 45.”

The universal DH is certainly a factor, giving 15 additional teams — including the three to hand out 11-plus-year contracts this offseason — a chance to preserve players in their late 30s and early 40s. But the jury is still out on whether the production will ultimately hold up. Two of our most recent examples of mega-contracts saw Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols — before a 2022 renaissance — fade aggressively in the tail ends of their Hall of Fame careers. Eventually the same might be said for the likes of Judge, Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. But some of the sharpest minds in the industry are banking on their teams’ abilities to extend players’ primes through science and nutrition.

“We as an industry I think have gotten pretty sophisticated — whether that’s a good thing or not others can decide — about aging curves and projections and things like that,” Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said from the general managers meetings in November.

“Also just think about strength and conditioning, nutrition, all these areas — there’s been a lot of advancements, not just baseball-wise but across all sports. And using aging curves from 10, 20 years ago versus what players have access to now, you have to ask how relevant it is.”

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski echoed similar thoughts shortly after signing Turner for 11 years.

“We feel players have a better chance to play at later ages,” Dombrowski wrote in an email. “Our ability to work with players on conditioning methods, nutrition, physical fitness is so much better these days, and the players’ focus on achieving longer playing careers is extremely important.”

‘The Cohen Effect’

In the two years since Steve Cohen assumed control of the Mets, a theory has continued to circulate the industry: If they could do it over again, some rival owners would reconsider approving him. It’s clear to see why.

Under Cohen, the Mets’ competitive balance tax payroll has skyrocketed, finishing at about $295 million in 2022 and, after the Correa signing, trending in the neighborhood of $380 million in 2023. Cohen’s unmitigated aggressiveness, coupled with similar motivations by Padres chairman Peter Seidler and Phillies CEO John Middleton, has helped drive up the prices on free agents, and some believe it has pushed teams to spend at unprecedented rates.

In the words of one agent, “The right owners are in the mix for the World Series.”

“I think the market is correcting itself towards our side as owners get more competitive,” another agent said. “Call it ‘The Cohen Effect.’ Teams have to keep up with the arms race. With the new CBA, inflation, new revenue streams and three aggressive owners, the contracts are going up.”

In the offseasons that followed the 2016 to 2020 campaigns, teams spent an average of $1.6 billion per year on free agents, according to numbers maintained by Spotrac. Last year, that number rose to $3.2 billion. This year, it’s already at $3.5 billion.

“This is what we’ve been wanting for a while now,” one player involved in past labor issues wrote in a text message. “Now imagine if we can get all 30 teams to participate for the top players. A few owners are raising the top of the market. Hopefully the trickle-down continues.”

It might all be a product of ideal timing, the right owners reaching the ideal point in their franchises’ trajectories and capitalizing on a free agent market that is particularly flush with star talent.

This trend, like the others, might not last.

But look at teams such as the Giants and the Chicago Cubs, both of whom seem at least a year away from legitimate contention but have chased top-tier free agents nonetheless (the Giants famously whiffed on Judge and Correa, but the Cubs signed Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177 million contract that also exceeded industry expectations). Or the Texas Rangers, committing a combined $500 million to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien coming off a 102-loss season and then spending big again on Jacob deGrom this winter. Or the Phillies and Padres four years ago, locking up Harper and Manny Machado on $300 million-plus contracts to serve as the face of their next championship window.

Revenue reached $11 billion last year, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said during the World Series. The sale of the remaining stake in BamTech outfitted each owner with an additional $30 million and online gambling has brought in a major stream of new revenue. High-salary long-term deals have a history of ending poorly, and yet they’ve never been more popular.

One longtime scout might have explained it best with one sentence:

“Owners have so much money.”

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Reds: 1st since 1960 to lose 3 straight by 1-0

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Reds: 1st since 1960 to lose 3 straight by 1-0

MILWAUKEE — The Cincinnati Reds lost 1-0 to the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday night to become only the second team in the live-ball era (since 1920) to lose three consecutive 1-0 games.

The Reds joined the Philadelphia Phillies, who lost three straight in the same fashion in 1960, according to ESPN Research.

“Nobody’s happy with what’s happened the last three games,” Reds manager Terry Francona said after the string of 1-0 losses continued in the opener of a four-game series at Milwaukee. “We’ll figure it out together. I feel strongly about that.”

Cincinnati’s lineup showcased its potential Monday in a 14-3 victory over the Texas Rangers, but the Reds haven’t scored since.

Texas’ Nathan Eovaldi outdueled Carson Spiers on Tuesday. Jack Leiter and four Texas relievers combined for 10 strikeouts Wednesday as the Reds wasted a brilliant performance from Hunter Greene.

Milwaukee’s Nestor Cortes shut down Cincinnati on Thursday, allowing one hit, striking out six and walking two over six innings.

Cincinnati’s Nick Lodolo gave up four hits and one unearned run in 6⅔ innings Thursday, but he took the loss because the Reds mustered just two hits.

“It’s part of the game, you know?” Lodolo said. “I’ll be honest with you. Obviously I want us to score, but I’m not really thinking about it. I’ve got to do my job at the end of the day, regardless. We’ll turn it around. I guarantee that.”

That’s the attitude Francona wants to see from his pitchers as Cincinnati’s hitters try to break out of their slump.

“We’re not going to have a situation where it’s ‘us’ when we win and it’s ‘they’ when we lose,” Francona said. “We’ll do this together.”

Francona said there’s no common thread between the games that explains his lineup’s struggles. The Reds have faced different styles of pitchers each time.

Eovaldi is a veteran right-hander who went the distance while allowing four hits and no walks. Leiter’s a hard-throwing rookie right-hander. Cortes, a veteran left-hander, doesn’t have the velocity of Eovaldi or Leiter but effectively mixed his cutter and changeup with his fastball.

Cincinnati’s struggles Thursday may have been particularly frustrating because Cortes looked so awful in his last start, a 20-9 loss to the New York Yankees. Cortes allowed homers on each of his first three pitches that day and ended up yielding eight hits and five walks in two innings of a game that drew attention to the Yankees’ use of “torpedo bats.”

The Reds made Cortes look like an entirely different pitcher.

“It was embarrassing, what happened to me last time,” Cortes said. “I think, as a starter, you’ve got 30 or 32 of these. There’s going to be a lot of bad ones throughout the way. You’ve just got to learn how to brush them off and go to the next one. That’s what I did.”

The Reds’ lone hit off Cortes came from Jose Trevino, who delivered a one-out double in the third off his former Yankees teammate. Cincinnati’s only other hit Thursday was a single by Jeimer Candelario off Elvis Peguero in the seventh.

Cincinnati has a combined nine hits, three walks and 27 strikeouts during the skid.

“To be totally honest, you see this all the time throughout a baseball season,” Trevino said. “Pitchers will pick up the hitters and the hitters will pick up the pitchers. It will all switch at some point. We’re going to need them. They’re going to need us. And at some point, we’re all going to be together. That’s just how the baseball season goes.

“Right now, our pitchers are doing really well and our hitters, we’re grinding. It’s not like we’re out there trying to give outs away. We’re out there putting some good at-bats together. We’re going to turn this thing around. I have full confidence in this team.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Dodgers’ Freeman placed on IL after shower slip

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Dodgers' Freeman placed on IL after shower slip

Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, who slipped and fell in the shower Sunday morning, was put on the injured list for his ankle injury, the team announced Thursday.

The move is retroactive to Monday. He hasn’t played since Saturday and is 3-for-12 this season with two home runs and four RBIs.

The incident happened at home during the Dodgers’ off day. Freeman’s wife had to drive him to Dodger Stadium on Sunday for a three-hour treatment session. By the time it was over, he was able to drive himself home. An X-ray showed no serious damage.

Freeman sprained his right ankle on a play at first base in late September and struggled in the first two rounds of the postseason, but it was hardly evident during the World Series. He homered in the first four games and had 12 RBIs, earning the World Series MVP award as the Dodgers beat the New York Yankees in five games.

He had debridement surgery in December to remove loose bodies in the ankle.

The Dodgers (8-0) begin a three-game series at the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Judge gets 500th extra-base hit; 3rd-fastest Yank

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Judge gets 500th extra-base hit; 3rd-fastest Yank

NEW YORK — Aaron Judge smiled and perhaps blushed when informed of Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s praise.

“We all tell him every day: ‘Hey, we want to be you when we grow up,'” Chisholm said after Judge became the third-fastest New York Yankees player to reach 500 extra-base hits with a three-run homer in the first inning of Thursday night’s 9-7 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

And the two players who reached the mark in fewer games than Judge? Joe DiMaggio and Lou Gehrig.

“When I’m an old man coming to Old-Timers Day, I can look back and we can joke about it and laugh about it,” Judge said.

Coming off his second American League MVP award, Judge fell a triple short of the cycle and is hitting .417 with five homers and 15 RBIs in the first six games this season. He has 320 homers, 175 doubles and five triples in 999 games, and only DiMaggio (853) and Gehrig (869) reached 500 extra-base hits in fewer games among Yankees.

“I feel like he’s still getting there, which is remarkable,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “It’s that part of me that takes him for granted a little bit. I just feel like he should get an extra-base hit every time. I kind of say it out loud just to try and remind myself what we’re watching every day.”

Judge lined a 1-1 fastball from Merrill Kelly at 112.1 mph to the opposite field and into the Yankees’ bullpen for a 3-0 lead. He added a run-scoring single in the fourth inning as the Yankees moved ahead 7-3 and hit a 111.3 mph double in the sixth. He also flied out and hit a 109.5 mph groundout.

“I’m like, did you miss that one?” Boone recalled, laughing. “I catch myself having these ridiculous conversations with him sometimes, just because he keeps setting the bar so darn high.”

Judge knows he’s in for ribbing when he singles or doubles.

“He gives me a little smirk when I get on base like that,” he said.

Judge also stole his first base of the season, as did Chisholm. Judge swiped 10 last year to Chisholm’s 40.

“I told him I was going to catch him in stolen bases this year,” Judge said playfully.

“He’s starting to steal bags now. It’s just getting ridiculous out of him, man,” Chisholm said.

Chisholm and Trent Grisham hit two-run homers off Kelly (1-1), who allowed a career-high nine runs, nine hits and three walks in 3 2/3 innings. Chisholm is hitting .292 with four homers and eight RBIs.

“I’m OK compared to him. I’m trying to get to his level right now,” Chisholm said of Judge. “I told him I’m not going to try to fall behind him too far. I got to keep up with him.”

New York had 22 homers on a 4-2 opening homestand, five more than any other team ever hit in its first six games. Even though it was game No. 6, the Yankees felt an urgency after losing the Tuesday and Wednesday.

“Big G said a couple words before the game, just about this was our home turf. We got to go out there and we don’t get swept at home,” he said of Giancarlo Stanton. “Guys took that to heart.”

Carlos Carrasco (1-0) got his first Yankees win, giving up three runs and five hits in 5 1/3 innings. After New York opened a 9-3 lead, Geraldo Perdomo hit a seventh-inning grand slam off Ryan Yarbrough. Luke Weaver got four outs for his first save this season, ending Arizona’s three-game winning streak.

Judge repeatedly refers to last year’s World Series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. It weighs on him far more than historical accomplishments.

“Especially after last season where we weren’t able to finish the job, guys are motivated to go out and do something special,” he said. “It starts every game you play.”

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