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Christmas is still ahead of us, and yet the baseball industry has already spent in record numbers and signed away most of the best available players. Twenty-four of the top 25 free agents, as ranked by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel in early November, have already chosen new teams, signing deals totaling close to $2.8 billion.

But it isn’t just the amount of money that is jarring — it’s the length of time teams are willing to pay it.

In the history of MLB free agency, only four players have received deals that have extended beyond 10 years — and three of those came this month. Trea Turner agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies on Dec. 5, Xander Bogaerts got 11 years and $280 million from the San Diego Padres on Dec. 8 and Carlos Correa landed with the New York Mets on a 12-year, $315 million contract — one week after agreeing to a 13-year, $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants that fell apart over a disagreement about his physical.

Turner and Bogaerts will be paid through their age-40 seasons. Correa and Aaron Judge, who accepted a nine-year, $360 million contract to return to the New York Yankees, are locked up through age 39.

The idea of signing a player for a decade or more on a deal that will almost certainly take him to the very end of his career seems counterintuitive to modern roster construction. Front offices are smarter, more analytically minded than ever, hyper-focused on efficiency and well-schooled on the deficiencies of players in their mid to late 30s. The sport itself, proliferated by devastating breaking balls and triple-digit fastballs, has never been more unkind to the slower reaction times of those approaching middle age. And yet teams are handing out long-term contracts like never before. Ten of the past 11 deals signed for 10 or more years have come since 2019, and this offseason has taken that approach to a new level.

What gives? ESPN spoke to more than a dozen people in the industry, most of them executives and agents, in an effort to figure out why prolonged contracts are suddenly the rage. Three main theories emerged.

Lower AAVs are valuable

The most popular reason given to explain the plethora of long-term deals was simply that lengthening out a contract is an easy way to minimize present-day costs.

One in particular embodied that sentiment: Bryce Harper‘s 13-year, $330 million agreement with the Phillies, obtained near the end of February in 2019. Harper, represented by Scott Boras, perceivably entered free agency with a desire to top Giancarlo Stanton‘s $325 million extension and thus set a record for total guarantee. To attain it, he accepted a lower average annual value, of about $25 million, which in turn helped the Phillies reduce the deal’s year-to-year impact on the luxury tax. (AAV, not year-to-year salary, is used to calculate where teams reside in relation to the luxury tax threshold.)

Harper’s deal lies in stark contrast with the short-term, high-AAV deals that have also populated the industry in recent years, obtained by Trevor Bauer (three years and $102 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers), Max Scherzer (three years and $130 million from the Mets) and Justin Verlander (two years and $86.7 million from the Mets). Those deals drove up prices; Harper’s provided an alternate path for players who sought to cash in similarly.

“I think for a period of time, agents weren’t really letting that be on the table and were focused on the AAV,” an assistant general manager said. “So now there are opportunities for higher AAVs and opportunities for longer deals. Before, no one was doing the Verlander contract, so the only path was the deals that were signed.”

Correa has lived both worlds, obtaining a $35.1 million AAV on a short-term deal with the Minnesota Twins last year, then opting out and ultimately getting $315 million from the Mets. As one agent said: “This is really about the luxury tax.”

The new collective bargaining agreement included a relatively large increase in the luxury tax threshold, jumping nearly 10% from 2021 to 2022. But the repercussions were also stiffer, with a fourth tier introduced and other draft-related penalties looming. Teams now have more room to maneuver, but also a desire to maintain the flexibility to get back under the threshold and avoid escalating repeater penalties.

The luxury tax threshold is $233 million for the 2023 season, a $23 million increase from where it stood as recently as 2021, with an overage rate of 20%. But the rates multiply significantly depending on the amount teams go over by and how many consecutive years they do so, getting as high as 110%. Teams can also be stripped of draft picks and lose international-bonus-pool money. It has prompted them to pivot. A recent FanGraphs article also made the point that the nation’s economy, specifically federal interest rates, has motivated teams to stretch dollars out into future years.

The contracts for Correa, Turner and Bogaerts all rank within the top 15 all-time in total value — but none are within the top 25 in AAV.

“Rates are going up, and it makes sense to stretch out this money over time,” another agent said. “Teams can do some savvy financial work on the back end to cover the financial implications of the future costs of the contract. But also, stretching out the deals and lowering the AAV allows teams to have more flexibility under the new CBT thresholds, especially if they go up. The back end of deals are essentially all deferred money. Teams know they are eating the last few years of the contract.”

Players are starting earlier, potentially aging better

The combination of getting to free agency earlier and theoretically, with the help of modern technology, maintaining production at an older age, could be as important as anything in the discussion of long-term contracts. In the past, achieving the six years of service time required for free agency often meant players hit the open market in their 30s. But players — especially star-caliber prospects — often are matriculating through minor league systems at a faster rate, debuting in the majors earlier and therefore becoming free agents sooner.

The past three offseasons have seen 581 players become free agents before turning 30, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information. If you go back nearly a decade, to the three-year span from 2012 to 2014, that number was only 182. The game, in essence, keeps getting younger. Correa (28) and Turner (29) have yet to reach their 30s. When Shohei Ohtani reaches free agency next offseason, he’ll be 29. When Juan Soto follows two years later, he’ll be 26. They, too, might attain decade-plus-long contracts.

“There happens to be a bunch of really good players that happen to be young for free agents,” another assistant GM said. “That’s helping teams feel OK about it. Players aren’t spending a full year at every level. The system is getting them to the big leagues quicker and to free agency earlier. Giving out a decade-long contract — or even longer — at 28 or even 29 is much different than at 31 or 32. Players can perform at 40 or 41, especially with the [designated hitter] in both leagues. Maybe not as much at 43 or 45.”

The universal DH is certainly a factor, giving 15 additional teams — including the three to hand out 11-plus-year contracts this offseason — a chance to preserve players in their late 30s and early 40s. But the jury is still out on whether the production will ultimately hold up. Two of our most recent examples of mega-contracts saw Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols — before a 2022 renaissance — fade aggressively in the tail ends of their Hall of Fame careers. Eventually the same might be said for the likes of Judge, Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. But some of the sharpest minds in the industry are banking on their teams’ abilities to extend players’ primes through science and nutrition.

“We as an industry I think have gotten pretty sophisticated — whether that’s a good thing or not others can decide — about aging curves and projections and things like that,” Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said from the general managers meetings in November.

“Also just think about strength and conditioning, nutrition, all these areas — there’s been a lot of advancements, not just baseball-wise but across all sports. And using aging curves from 10, 20 years ago versus what players have access to now, you have to ask how relevant it is.”

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski echoed similar thoughts shortly after signing Turner for 11 years.

“We feel players have a better chance to play at later ages,” Dombrowski wrote in an email. “Our ability to work with players on conditioning methods, nutrition, physical fitness is so much better these days, and the players’ focus on achieving longer playing careers is extremely important.”

‘The Cohen Effect’

In the two years since Steve Cohen assumed control of the Mets, a theory has continued to circulate the industry: If they could do it over again, some rival owners would reconsider approving him. It’s clear to see why.

Under Cohen, the Mets’ competitive balance tax payroll has skyrocketed, finishing at about $295 million in 2022 and, after the Correa signing, trending in the neighborhood of $380 million in 2023. Cohen’s unmitigated aggressiveness, coupled with similar motivations by Padres chairman Peter Seidler and Phillies CEO John Middleton, has helped drive up the prices on free agents, and some believe it has pushed teams to spend at unprecedented rates.

In the words of one agent, “The right owners are in the mix for the World Series.”

“I think the market is correcting itself towards our side as owners get more competitive,” another agent said. “Call it ‘The Cohen Effect.’ Teams have to keep up with the arms race. With the new CBA, inflation, new revenue streams and three aggressive owners, the contracts are going up.”

In the offseasons that followed the 2016 to 2020 campaigns, teams spent an average of $1.6 billion per year on free agents, according to numbers maintained by Spotrac. Last year, that number rose to $3.2 billion. This year, it’s already at $3.5 billion.

“This is what we’ve been wanting for a while now,” one player involved in past labor issues wrote in a text message. “Now imagine if we can get all 30 teams to participate for the top players. A few owners are raising the top of the market. Hopefully the trickle-down continues.”

It might all be a product of ideal timing, the right owners reaching the ideal point in their franchises’ trajectories and capitalizing on a free agent market that is particularly flush with star talent.

This trend, like the others, might not last.

But look at teams such as the Giants and the Chicago Cubs, both of whom seem at least a year away from legitimate contention but have chased top-tier free agents nonetheless (the Giants famously whiffed on Judge and Correa, but the Cubs signed Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177 million contract that also exceeded industry expectations). Or the Texas Rangers, committing a combined $500 million to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien coming off a 102-loss season and then spending big again on Jacob deGrom this winter. Or the Phillies and Padres four years ago, locking up Harper and Manny Machado on $300 million-plus contracts to serve as the face of their next championship window.

Revenue reached $11 billion last year, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said during the World Series. The sale of the remaining stake in BamTech outfitted each owner with an additional $30 million and online gambling has brought in a major stream of new revenue. High-salary long-term deals have a history of ending poorly, and yet they’ve never been more popular.

One longtime scout might have explained it best with one sentence:

“Owners have so much money.”

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Buffs coach: Stars ‘should be going 1-2’ in draft

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Buffs coach: Stars 'should be going 1-2' in draft

BOULDER, Colo. — For the horde of NFL talent evaluators and some bleachers full of fans, Colorado coach Deion Sanders said Friday that they all got to see the top two players available in this year’s NFL draft.

Quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter were among the 16 Colorado players who took part in the school’s showcase event for scouts, coaches and personnel executives from every NFL team. And Deion Sanders said the two marquee players confirmed what he has known for a long time.

“It’s tremendous,” Sanders said. “… They should be going 1-2 [in the draft], that’s the way I feel about it. They are the two best players in this draft. … The surest bets in this draft are those two young men, and I didn’t stutter or stammer when I said that.”

Neither Shedeur Sanders nor Hunter took part in most of the position drills or physical testing, but Sanders had a throwing session for just under an hour and Hunter was one of the wide receivers who participated. Neither player worked out at the scouting combine earlier this year, so it was the first time Sanders had thrown in such a setting since the end of the season. He showed some full seven-step drops and play-action from the shotgun and under center.

“I think I did pretty good, to my expectations,” said Sanders, who set the career FBS accuracy mark in his two years at Colorado (71.8%) to go with his 4,134 passing yards and 37 touchdowns last season. “I know I did the best in college football right now, for sure.”

Asked after the throwing session whether he believed he was the best quarterback in the draft, Sanders said: “I feel like I’m the No. 1 quarterback, and that’s what I know. But at the end of the day, I’m not stuck on that because it’s about the situation, so whatever situation, whatever franchise believes in me, I’m excited to go. … I’m comfortable in any situation.”

Players Hunter, who did not speak to the media after the workout, and Sanders met with the Cleveland Browns contingent, including team co-owner Jimmy Haslam, on Thursday night in Boulder.

“They got me really full,” Sanders said. “I definitely needed to go to the sauna after that. … It was a good vibe.”

Said Deion Sanders said: “[I] spoke to the owner, truly delightful. He was engaging. … I think one of those guys is going to be there [at No. 2].”

Hunter, the No. 1 player on Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board, did not do any defensive drills Friday, but he ran a full assortment of routes.

Colorado safety Shilo Sanders, Shedeur’s brother, offered plenty of encouragement, shouting commentary and clapping after each throw, including “not a lot of quarterbacks can make that throw” after one deep completion.

The highly attended event — by NFL representatives as well as fans packing small bleachers — had a festive atmosphere. Deion Sanders named it the “We Ain’t Hard 2 Find Showcase,” complete with a large lighted “The Showcase” sign next to the drills.

Hunter, who has said he wants to play offense and defense in the NFL, won the Chuck Bednarik (top defensive player) and Fred Biletnikoff (top receiver) awards in addition to the Heisman. He said whether he will primarily be a wide receiver or a cornerback in the NFL depends “on the team that picks me.”

On Friday, Deion Sanders said “ain’t nobody like Travis.”

Hunter had 96 catches for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns as a receiver last season to go with 35 tackles, 11 pass breakups and 4 interceptions at cornerback. In the Buffaloes’ regular-season finale against Oklahoma State, he became the only FBS player in the past 25 years with three scrimmage touchdowns on offense and an interception in the same game, according to ESPN Research.

He played 1,380 total snaps in Colorado’s 12 regular-season games: 670 on offense, 686 on defense and 24 on special teams. He played 1,007 total snaps in 2023.

Shilo Sanders, who hoped to show teams more speed than expected, ran a 4.52 40-yard dash after he measured in at 5-foot-11⅞, 196 pounds. He did not participate in the jumps or bench press that opened the workout, citing a right shoulder injury.

With all NFL eyes on the Colorado campus to see Shedeur Sanders throw, one player who made the most of it was wide receiver Will Sheppard. Sheppard, who measured 6-2¼, 196 pounds, ran the 40 in 4.56 and 4.54 to go with a 40½-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot-11 broad jump.

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O’s Henderson off IL; will make ’25 debut vs. KC

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O's Henderson off IL; will make '25 debut vs. KC

Baltimore Orioles All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson was activated from the 10-day injured list and will make his season debut Friday night against the Kansas City Royals.

Henderson has been sidelined with a right intercostal strain and missed the first seven games of the big league campaign.

The 23-year-old Henderson will lead off and play shortstop against the host Royals.

Henderson was injured during a spring training game Feb. 27. He was fourth in American League MVP voting last season when he batted .281 and racked up career bests of 37 homers and 92 RBIs.

Henderson completed a five-game rehab stint at Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday. He batted .263 (5-for-19) with two homers and four RBIs and played four games at shortstop and one as the designated hitter. He did commit three errors.

“I think everybody’s looking forward to having Gunnar back on the team,” Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde said Thursday. “The rehab went really, really well. I talked to him a couple days ago, he feels great swinging the bat. The timing came, especially the last few days. He just had to get out there and get some reps defensively and get some games in, and it all went well.”

Baltimore optioned outfielder Dylan Carlson to Triple-A Norfolk to open up a roster spot. The 26-year-old was 0-for-4 with a run and RBI in two games this season.

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Life after OMG: Can 2025 Mets replicate their 2024 vibes?

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Life after OMG: Can 2025 Mets replicate their 2024 vibes?

When New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns attempted to assemble the best possible roster for the 2025 season this winter, the top priority was signing outfielder Juan Soto. Next was the need to replenish the starting rotation and bolster the bullpen. Then, days before pitchers and catchers reported for spring training, the lineup received one final significant reinforcement when first baseman Pete Alonso re-signed.

Acquiring a player with a singing career on the side didn’t make the cut.

“No, that is not on the list,” Stearns said with a smile.

Stearns’ decision not to re-sign Jose Iglesias, the infielder behind the mic for the viral 2024 Mets anthem “OMG,” was attributed to creating more roster flexibility. But it also hammered home a reality: The scrappy 2024 Mets, authors of a magical summer in Queens, are a thing of the past. The 2025 Mets, who will report to Citi Field for their home opener Friday, have much of the same core but also some prominent new faces — and the new, outsized expectations that come with falling two wins short of the World Series, then signing Soto to the richest contract in professional sports history.

But there’s a question surrounding this year’s team that you can’t put a price tag on: Can these Mets rekindle the magic — the vibes, the memes, the feel-good underdog story — that seemed to come out of nowhere to help carry them to Game 6 of the National League Championship Series last season?

“Last year the culture was created,” Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor said. “It’s a matter of continuing it.”

For all the success Stearns has engineered — his small-market Milwaukee Brewers teams reached the postseason five times in eight seasons after he became the youngest general manager in history in 2015 — the 40-year-old Harvard grad, like the rest of his front office peers knows there’s no precise recipe for clubhouse chemistry. There is no culture projection system. No Vibes Above Replacement.

“Culture is very important,” Stearns said last weekend in the visiting dugout at Daikin Park before his club completed an opening-weekend series against the Houston Astros. “Culture is also very difficult to predict.”

Still, it seems the Mets’ 2024 season will be all but impossible to recreate.

There was Grimace, the purple McDonald’s blob who spontaneously became the franchise’s unofficial mascot after throwing out a first pitch in June. “OMG,” performed under Iglesias’ stage name, Candelita, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Latin Digital Songs chart, before a remix featuring Pitbull was released in October. Citi Field became a karaoke bar whenever Lindor stepped into the batter’s box with The Temptations’ “My Girl” as his walk-up song. Alonso unveiled a lucky pumpkin in October. They were gimmicks that might have felt forced if they hadn’t felt so right.

“I don’t know if what we did last year could be replicated because it was such a chaos-filled group,” Mets reliever Ryne Stanek said. “I don’t know if that’s replicable because there’s just too many things going on. I don’t know if that’s a sustainable model. But I think the expectation of winning is really important. I think establishing what we did last year and coming into this year where people are like, ‘Oh, no, that’s what we’re expecting to do,’ makes it different. It’s always a different vibe whenever you feel like you’re the hunter versus being the hunted.”

For the first two months last season, the Mets were terrible hunters. Lindor was relentlessly booed at Citi Field during another slow start. The bullpen got crushed. The losses piled up. The Mets began the season 0-5 and sunk to rock bottom on May 29 when reliever Jorge Lopez threw his glove into the stands during a 10-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers that dropped the team to 22-33.

That night, the Mets held a players-only meeting. From there, perhaps coincidentally, everything changed. The Mets won the next day, and 67 of their final 107 games.

This year, to avoid an early malaise and to better incorporate new faces like Soto and Opening Day starter Clay Holmes, players made it a point to hold meetings during spring training to lay a strong foundation.

“At the end of the day, we know who we are and that’s the beauty of our club,” Alonso said. “Not just who we are talent-wise, but who each individual is as a man and a personality. For us, our major, major strength is our collective identity as a unit.”

Organizationally, the Mets are attempting a dual-track makeover: Becoming perennial World Series contenders while not taking themselves too seriously.

The commemorative purple Grimace seat installed at Citi Field in September — Section 302, Row 6, Seat 12 in right field — remains there as part of a two-year contract. Last week, the franchise announced it will feature a New York-city themed “Five Borough” race at every home game — with a different mascot competing to represent each borough. For a third straight season, USA Today readers voted Citi Field — home of the rainbow cookie egg roll, among many other innovative treats — as having the best ballpark food in baseball.

In the clubhouse, their identity is evolving.

“I’m very much in the camp that you can’t force things,” Mets starter Sean Manaea said. “I mean, you can, but you don’t really end up with good results. And if you wait for things to happen organically, then sometimes it can take too long. So, there’s like a nudging of sorts. It’s like, ‘Let’s kind of come up with something, but not force it.’ So there’s a fine balance there and you just got to wait and see what happens.”

Stearns believes it starts with what the Mets can control: bringing positive energy every day and fostering a family atmosphere. It’s hard to quantify, but vibes undoubtedly helped fuel the Mets’ 2024 success. It’ll be a tough act to follow.

“It’s fluid,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “I like where guys are at as far as the team chemistry goes and things like that and the connections and the relationships. But it’ll continue to take some time. And winning helps, clearly.”

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