The winter of the epic contract: How decade-plus MLB megadeals suddenly became a thing
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Alden Gonzalez
CloseESPN Staff Writer- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
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Jesse Rogers
Christmas is still ahead of us, and yet the baseball industry has already spent in record numbers and signed away most of the best available players. Twenty-four of the top 25 free agents, as ranked by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel in early November, have already chosen new teams, signing deals totaling close to $2.8 billion.
But it isn’t just the amount of money that is jarring — it’s the length of time teams are willing to pay it.
In the history of MLB free agency, only four players have received deals that have extended beyond 10 years — and three of those came this month. Trea Turner agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies on Dec. 5, Xander Bogaerts got 11 years and $280 million from the San Diego Padres on Dec. 8 and Carlos Correa landed with the New York Mets on a 12-year, $315 million contract — one week after agreeing to a 13-year, $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants that fell apart over a disagreement about his physical.
Turner and Bogaerts will be paid through their age-40 seasons. Correa and Aaron Judge, who accepted a nine-year, $360 million contract to return to the New York Yankees, are locked up through age 39.
The idea of signing a player for a decade or more on a deal that will almost certainly take him to the very end of his career seems counterintuitive to modern roster construction. Front offices are smarter, more analytically minded than ever, hyper-focused on efficiency and well-schooled on the deficiencies of players in their mid to late 30s. The sport itself, proliferated by devastating breaking balls and triple-digit fastballs, has never been more unkind to the slower reaction times of those approaching middle age. And yet teams are handing out long-term contracts like never before. Ten of the past 11 deals signed for 10 or more years have come since 2019, and this offseason has taken that approach to a new level.
What gives? ESPN spoke to more than a dozen people in the industry, most of them executives and agents, in an effort to figure out why prolonged contracts are suddenly the rage. Three main theories emerged.
Lower AAVs are valuable
The most popular reason given to explain the plethora of long-term deals was simply that lengthening out a contract is an easy way to minimize present-day costs.
One in particular embodied that sentiment: Bryce Harper‘s 13-year, $330 million agreement with the Phillies, obtained near the end of February in 2019. Harper, represented by Scott Boras, perceivably entered free agency with a desire to top Giancarlo Stanton‘s $325 million extension and thus set a record for total guarantee. To attain it, he accepted a lower average annual value, of about $25 million, which in turn helped the Phillies reduce the deal’s year-to-year impact on the luxury tax. (AAV, not year-to-year salary, is used to calculate where teams reside in relation to the luxury tax threshold.)
Harper’s deal lies in stark contrast with the short-term, high-AAV deals that have also populated the industry in recent years, obtained by Trevor Bauer (three years and $102 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers), Max Scherzer (three years and $130 million from the Mets) and Justin Verlander (two years and $86.7 million from the Mets). Those deals drove up prices; Harper’s provided an alternate path for players who sought to cash in similarly.
“I think for a period of time, agents weren’t really letting that be on the table and were focused on the AAV,” an assistant general manager said. “So now there are opportunities for higher AAVs and opportunities for longer deals. Before, no one was doing the Verlander contract, so the only path was the deals that were signed.”
Correa has lived both worlds, obtaining a $35.1 million AAV on a short-term deal with the Minnesota Twins last year, then opting out and ultimately getting $315 million from the Mets. As one agent said: “This is really about the luxury tax.”
The new collective bargaining agreement included a relatively large increase in the luxury tax threshold, jumping nearly 10% from 2021 to 2022. But the repercussions were also stiffer, with a fourth tier introduced and other draft-related penalties looming. Teams now have more room to maneuver, but also a desire to maintain the flexibility to get back under the threshold and avoid escalating repeater penalties.
The luxury tax threshold is $233 million for the 2023 season, a $23 million increase from where it stood as recently as 2021, with an overage rate of 20%. But the rates multiply significantly depending on the amount teams go over by and how many consecutive years they do so, getting as high as 110%. Teams can also be stripped of draft picks and lose international-bonus-pool money. It has prompted them to pivot. A recent FanGraphs article also made the point that the nation’s economy, specifically federal interest rates, has motivated teams to stretch dollars out into future years.
The contracts for Correa, Turner and Bogaerts all rank within the top 15 all-time in total value — but none are within the top 25 in AAV.
“Rates are going up, and it makes sense to stretch out this money over time,” another agent said. “Teams can do some savvy financial work on the back end to cover the financial implications of the future costs of the contract. But also, stretching out the deals and lowering the AAV allows teams to have more flexibility under the new CBT thresholds, especially if they go up. The back end of deals are essentially all deferred money. Teams know they are eating the last few years of the contract.”
Players are starting earlier, potentially aging better
The combination of getting to free agency earlier and theoretically, with the help of modern technology, maintaining production at an older age, could be as important as anything in the discussion of long-term contracts. In the past, achieving the six years of service time required for free agency often meant players hit the open market in their 30s. But players — especially star-caliber prospects — often are matriculating through minor league systems at a faster rate, debuting in the majors earlier and therefore becoming free agents sooner.
The past three offseasons have seen 581 players become free agents before turning 30, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information. If you go back nearly a decade, to the three-year span from 2012 to 2014, that number was only 182. The game, in essence, keeps getting younger. Correa (28) and Turner (29) have yet to reach their 30s. When Shohei Ohtani reaches free agency next offseason, he’ll be 29. When Juan Soto follows two years later, he’ll be 26. They, too, might attain decade-plus-long contracts.
“There happens to be a bunch of really good players that happen to be young for free agents,” another assistant GM said. “That’s helping teams feel OK about it. Players aren’t spending a full year at every level. The system is getting them to the big leagues quicker and to free agency earlier. Giving out a decade-long contract — or even longer — at 28 or even 29 is much different than at 31 or 32. Players can perform at 40 or 41, especially with the [designated hitter] in both leagues. Maybe not as much at 43 or 45.”
The universal DH is certainly a factor, giving 15 additional teams — including the three to hand out 11-plus-year contracts this offseason — a chance to preserve players in their late 30s and early 40s. But the jury is still out on whether the production will ultimately hold up. Two of our most recent examples of mega-contracts saw Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols — before a 2022 renaissance — fade aggressively in the tail ends of their Hall of Fame careers. Eventually the same might be said for the likes of Judge, Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. But some of the sharpest minds in the industry are banking on their teams’ abilities to extend players’ primes through science and nutrition.
“We as an industry I think have gotten pretty sophisticated — whether that’s a good thing or not others can decide — about aging curves and projections and things like that,” Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said from the general managers meetings in November.
“Also just think about strength and conditioning, nutrition, all these areas — there’s been a lot of advancements, not just baseball-wise but across all sports. And using aging curves from 10, 20 years ago versus what players have access to now, you have to ask how relevant it is.”
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski echoed similar thoughts shortly after signing Turner for 11 years.
“We feel players have a better chance to play at later ages,” Dombrowski wrote in an email. “Our ability to work with players on conditioning methods, nutrition, physical fitness is so much better these days, and the players’ focus on achieving longer playing careers is extremely important.”
‘The Cohen Effect’
In the two years since Steve Cohen assumed control of the Mets, a theory has continued to circulate the industry: If they could do it over again, some rival owners would reconsider approving him. It’s clear to see why.
Under Cohen, the Mets’ competitive balance tax payroll has skyrocketed, finishing at about $295 million in 2022 and, after the Correa signing, trending in the neighborhood of $380 million in 2023. Cohen’s unmitigated aggressiveness, coupled with similar motivations by Padres chairman Peter Seidler and Phillies CEO John Middleton, has helped drive up the prices on free agents, and some believe it has pushed teams to spend at unprecedented rates.
In the words of one agent, “The right owners are in the mix for the World Series.”
“I think the market is correcting itself towards our side as owners get more competitive,” another agent said. “Call it ‘The Cohen Effect.’ Teams have to keep up with the arms race. With the new CBA, inflation, new revenue streams and three aggressive owners, the contracts are going up.”
In the offseasons that followed the 2016 to 2020 campaigns, teams spent an average of $1.6 billion per year on free agents, according to numbers maintained by Spotrac. Last year, that number rose to $3.2 billion. This year, it’s already at $3.5 billion.
“This is what we’ve been wanting for a while now,” one player involved in past labor issues wrote in a text message. “Now imagine if we can get all 30 teams to participate for the top players. A few owners are raising the top of the market. Hopefully the trickle-down continues.”
It might all be a product of ideal timing, the right owners reaching the ideal point in their franchises’ trajectories and capitalizing on a free agent market that is particularly flush with star talent.
This trend, like the others, might not last.
But look at teams such as the Giants and the Chicago Cubs, both of whom seem at least a year away from legitimate contention but have chased top-tier free agents nonetheless (the Giants famously whiffed on Judge and Correa, but the Cubs signed Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177 million contract that also exceeded industry expectations). Or the Texas Rangers, committing a combined $500 million to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien coming off a 102-loss season and then spending big again on Jacob deGrom this winter. Or the Phillies and Padres four years ago, locking up Harper and Manny Machado on $300 million-plus contracts to serve as the face of their next championship window.
Revenue reached $11 billion last year, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said during the World Series. The sale of the remaining stake in BamTech outfitted each owner with an additional $30 million and online gambling has brought in a major stream of new revenue. High-salary long-term deals have a history of ending poorly, and yet they’ve never been more popular.
One longtime scout might have explained it best with one sentence:
“Owners have so much money.”
Florida quarterback Tim Tebow and Florida State cornerback Deion Sanders were among the former college football stars named to The Associated Press’ All-Time All-America first team.
Ohio State and Pittsburgh each placed three players on the AP All-Time All-America team announced Thursday as part of the news organization’s celebration of the 100th anniversary of the storied honor for the top players in college football.
Since 1925, nearly 2,000 men have been named AP first-team All-Americans, one of the most prestigious honors in the sport.
Of the 25 players on the first team, five won the Heisman Trophy and 21 are in the College Football Hall of Fame, two are nominated for induction in 2026, and two are not eligible because they are not yet 10 years removed from their college careers.
A panel of 12 AP sportswriters who cover college football selected the all-time team. It won’t be, and shouldn’t be, considered definitive. There have been far more great players over the past century than spots available.
For a player to qualify, he must have been an AP first-team All-American at least once. His professional career, if any, was not to be considered. Also, a member of the all-time team could be listed only on the side of the ball where he was named first-team All-America. All-purpose players could come from any position.
Voters were cautioned against recency bias, but it is notable that only three of the first-team selections played before 1970. Of the 12 players who were three-time All-Americans, only four made the two all-time teams picked by AP.
Tebow edged Texas‘ Vince Young (2005) for all-time first-team quarterback. Tebow won the Heisman and made the AP All-America team as a sophomore in 2007, his first year as the starter.
He led the Gators to their second national championship in three years in 2008 and narrowly missed a chance at another when the 2009 team started 13-0 but lost to Alabama in the SEC championship game. Tebow remains the SEC career leader in rushing touchdowns and touchdowns responsible for.
Oklahoma State‘s Barry Sanders (1988) and Georgia‘s Herschel Walker (1980-82), both Heisman winners, are the running backs. Marshall‘s Randy Moss (1997) and Pittsburgh’s Larry Fitzgerald (2003) are the wide receivers.
The offensive line is made up of Ohio State’s Orlando Pace (1995-96) and Pitt’s Bill Fralic (1982-84) at tackle, Alabama’s John Hannah (1972) and Ohio State’s Jim Parker (1956) at guard and Penn’s Chuck Bednarik (1947-48) at center. The tight end is Georgia’s Brock Bowers (2023).
The all-purpose player is Heisman winner Johnny Rodgers of Nebraska (1972).
On defense, Pitt’s Hugh Green (1978-80) and Maryland‘s Randy White (1974) are the ends and Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh (2009) and Minnesota‘s Bronko Nagurski (1929) are the tackles. The linebackers are Illinois‘ Dick Butkus (1964), Alabama’s Derrick Thomas (1988) and Ohio State’s Chris Spielman (1986-87).
The secondary is made up of Sanders (1987-88) and Heisman winner Charles Woodson of Michigan (1996-97) at cornerback and USC’s Ronnie Lott (1980) and Miami‘s Ed Reed (2000-01) at safety.
The specialists are Florida State kicker Sebastian Janikowski (1998-99) and Iowa punter Tory Taylor (2023).
Many fans might say Anthony Munoz and Ray Guy, among others, are glaring omissions.
Munoz, who played at USC from 1976 to 1979, is considered one of the greatest offensive linemen of all time, college or pro. He is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Alas, he was never a first-team AP All-American.
Guy, who played at Southern Mississippi from 1970 to 1972, remains the only punter selected in the first round of an NFL draft. But punters were not included on AP All-America teams until 1981.
The Big Ten led all conferences with seven selections, two more than the SEC.
First team offense
Tackles – Orlando Pace, Ohio State, 1995-96; Bill Fralic, Pittsburgh, 1982-84
Guards – John Hannah, Alabama, 1972; Jim Parker, Ohio State, 1956
Center – Chuck Bednarik, Penn, 1947-48
Tight end – Brock Bowers, Georgia, 2023
QB – Tim Tebow, Florida, 2007
Running backs – Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State, 1988; Herschel Walker, Georgia, 1980-82
Kicker – Sebastian Janikowski, Florida State, 1998-99
All-purpose – Johnny Rodgers, Nebraska, 1972
Tackles – Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska, 2009; Bronko Nagurski, Minnesota, 1929
Linebackers – Dick Butkus, Illinois, 1964; Derrick Thomas, Alabama, 1988; Chris Spielman, Ohio State, 1986-87
Cornerbacks – Charles Woodson, Michigan, 1996-97; Deion Sanders, Florida State, 1987-88
Safeties – Ronnie Lott, USC, 1980; Ed Reed, Miami, 2000-01
Punter – Tory Taylor, Iowa, 2023
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Dan Wetzel
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Dan Wetzel
ESPN
Dan Wetzel is a senior writer focused on investigative reporting, news analysis and feature storytelling.
The NCAA Committee on Infractions’ long-awaited ruling in the Michigan advance-scouting case will be publicly announced Friday, sources told ESPN, as involved parties were made aware of the upcoming release Thursday.
The NCAA is expected to hold a news conference early Friday afternoon to detail the findings, sources told ESPN. It could mark the conclusion of one of the most explosive, strange and controversial cases in the long history of NCAA enforcement.
The NCAA charged Michigan and numerous coaches and staffers with 11 violations — six of them Level I, the most serious — in relation to a sign-stealing operation overseen by former staffer Connor Stalions.
Stalions is alleged to have arranged for people to attend games and film the sideline signals involving future Michigan opponents from 2021 to the middle of the 2023 season, when the scheme was uncovered and Stalions resigned.
Stealing signs in games is not against NCAA rules, but schools are not allowed to scout opponents in advance in person. Evidence emerged of Stalions purchasing tickets at nearly every Big Ten school.
According to a draft of the NCAA notice of allegations obtained by ESPN, Stalions arranged the impermissible scouting of at least 13 future opponents on at least 58 occasions from 2021 to 2023. That included scouting opponents multiple times, including one team that was watched seven times in 2022, according to the draft.
Michigan coach Sherrone Moore is expected to be suspended for at least two games in the upcoming season for deleting a thread of 52 text messages with Stalions. One of the mysteries of the upcoming ruling is whether that self-imposed sanction will be accepted or if there will be any additions to it.
Michigan has asked for that two-game ban to be served during the Wolverines’ third and fourth games.
Michigan and all of its current and former coaches involved in the matter have said they were unaware of Stalions’ alleged advanced scouting.
The school appeared before the NCAA infractions committee during a two-day hearing in early June.
Potential penalties for the other former Michigan coaches involved include suspensions, significant fines and other measures. Those are more likely than any significant program penalties for Michigan — other than a hefty potential fine — as recent NCAA precedent has steered the Committee on Infractions away from postseason bans in other cases.
Show-cause penalties — which work like a type of employment ban — could also be leveled on former coach Jim Harbaugh, now with the Los Angeles Chargers, Stalions and former assistant coaches named in the report. The Big Ten suspended Harbaugh for three games to conclude the 2023 regular season under the league’s sportsmanship rules.
In August 2024, Harbaugh received a four-year show-cause penalty from the NCAA tied to a separate case where he was found to have improper contract with recruits.
Moore was charged with failure to cooperate for deleting a text thread — which was later recovered — with Stalions on Oct. 19, 2023, the day the scandal broke. The messages, per the NCAA case, did not include any information to suggest Moore knew of Stalions’ alleged actions. Moore is considered a potential “repeat violator” by the NCAA because in August 2023 he negotiated a resolution to claims that he contacted recruits during a COVID-19 recruiting dead period, and he later served a one-game suspension.
Michigan went on to capture the 2023 national championship after Stalions’ resignation.
The Wolverines, who are ranked No. 14 in the preseason AP Top 25, open the season at home against New Mexico on Aug. 30 before visiting No. 18 Oklahoma on Sept. 6.
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Ryan McGee
Inspirational thought of the week:
What do you do when you love somebody
And you decide to go it alone?
Ah, no, no, it never pays to give up on someone
When on the inside the feelin’ is strong
Oh, here we go again
I thought what we had was over now
But here we go again
— “Here We Go Again” Isley Brothers
Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located inside the 18-wheeler of tissues being delivered to the “College GameDay” set for Coach Corso’s final show, we have spent the offseason staring at the map. Specifically, a United States puzzle map. We picked up the piece labeled “Massachusetts” and held it while we kept one eye on the calendar and one eye on the clock.
Then, as the long hand hit 12 and it became midnight and thus was officially Tuesday, July 1, 2025, we slathered crazy glue onto the back of that wooden facsimile of the Codfish State and screamed, “UMASS IS WALKING BACK TO THE MAC, BABY!”
That’s when the lights came on. Standing in the doorway were the kids from whose playroom I’d stolen the puzzle. They were crying. There was a dog, apparently named Mac, who thought I’d called him for a walk. Now he was crying. Then there was my wife, in her pajamas and mad because I’d woken her up. She pointed to my hand, still held high in the air about to slap Massachusetts into the heart of the Mid-American Conference and said, “Nice job, moron. You palmed the side with the crazy glue. I hope you like UMass as much as you say you do, because I’m out of nail polish remover. That’s gonna still be in your hand when the season starts.”
With apologies to former Villanova running back Larry Glueck, Lester Hayes, Harry Cover and Steve Harvey, here’s the 2025 preseason Bottom 10 rankings.
The defending Bottom 10 champs have lost 21 games in a row and fired coach Kenni Burns. But they let him stick around until spring practice had already started and said they didn’t fire him because his record was 1-23 but rather because of a list of reasons presented by university leaders. That included maxing out his $20K “P-card” which stands for personal card, not something the doctor has you use to check your alkaline levels.
Our Bottom 10 JortsCenter investigative unit has discovered a pile of wilted flowers and an accompanying thank you note, found in a dumpster behind the Kent State football offices, with a Kennesaw State return address. The card reads: “Thanks for botching your coach firing so bad because it made people forget our even worse coach firing last fall. Love, The Owls (not the ones at Rice, FAU or Temple).” Why were we digging through the dumpster at Kent? Because we heard that Greg McElroy said that Nick Saban was going back to coach his alma mater.
The Amherst Amblers are indeed back where the Bottom 10 football gods want them, rejoining #MACtion after nearly a decade away. They were in the MAC from 2012 to 2015, during which time they won eight games over four seasons. Then they went rogue, during which time they earned 18 wins over nine seasons. Is it weird to leave a conference and then return? Sure. But did we really believe that a group of Minutemen could resist the idea of independence?
The 2025 roster of Brett Favre Disaster Relief U. has 17 transfers from the SEC, nine from the Big 12 and five from the ACC. The last time there were this many out-of-towners in Hattiesburg they were on their way to siege Vicksburg.
5. The State U. Fightin’ Accountants
Between rev share and payrolls and school shoe deals promising unprecedented NIL payouts and the Kansas Nayhawks receiving a $300 million donation and players kinda sorta not really gambling and court settlements that were supposed to fix everything but then we find out that, no, there’s more that has to be sorted out to players’ parents complaining about unfulfilled financial promises to everyone from Tom Brady to Shane Gillis telling us that college sports cash is screwed up but no one has any real solutions … can we please just kick off the games already?
Sources have also told Bottom 10 JortsCenter that New Mexico State officials have looked into the possibility of not playing any games this year and instead hosting stadium jumbotron SEC Network watch parties to see all their former players winning games at Vanderbilt.
The Golden Hurricane lost their last four games of 2024 by surrendering an average 55.75 points per contest. It was the most excruciating finish we’ve been forced to witness since the “Game of Thrones” finale.
The Panthers Not Owls moved up to FBS football nearly 25 years ago and since then have posted only four winning seasons, the last coming in their legendary 9-4 campaign in 2018 that ended with a win in the Popeye’s Bahamas Bowl. Over the past five years, they have averaged 2.6 wins. Exactly how I feel after I have eaten too much Popeye’s.
Speaking of moving up to FBS, the Bears are doing so after 115 years of playing at lower levels. During that time, they posted an FCS playoff record of 1-4 and a bowl mark of 0-4, including two losses in the Mineral Water Bowl. College Football Playoff, here they come!
Speaking of repeating ourselves, the Fightin’ Blue Hens are also movin’ on up, but bringing a very different résumé to the FBS job fair. Delaware claims six national titles, five in Division II and the 2003 FCS championship. Plus, it was the first program of the Level Formerly Known as 1-AA to draw more than 20,000 fans per game. The Blue Hens open the season versus Delaware State, not be confused with the State of Delaware. If they had to fight the entire state of Delaware, that wouldn’t seem fair. Though, if it was set to the music of George Thorogood and there was blue crab being served, I would totally be there.
Waiting list: Georgia State Not Southern, Baller State, Akronmonious, Temple of Doom, ULM (pronounced “uhlm”), UTEPid, Muddled Tennessee, coach girlfriend headlines.
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