Connelly crowns the true CFB champion from 16 split or controversial titles
It’s one of the silliest features of maybe the silliest sport on the planet: If you were to add up all of the national championships claimed in top-level college football, you would think the sport dated back to the 1600s. Princeton claims 28 of them, Yale 27. Alabama claims 23 — including one from a 9-2 campaign in 1941! — and Notre Dame is credited with 22. That’s 100 right there! And 25 other schools claim at least five!
On one hand, so be it. Fielding a football team is hard, and fielding an elite team is even harder, and if you want to hang a banner for doing that (or some approximation of it), hang the damn banner.
On the other hand, this is kind of a mess. The BCS and College Football Playoff eras have cleaned things up a bit — we have had only one official split national title since the BCS began in 1998 — but the sport’s history is littered with unsettled arguments. So let’s settle some of them.
Below are 16 seasons featuring some of the sport’s biggest disagreements. They include all 11 of the split national titles of the poll era — when the AP selected one champion and the UPI/coaches poll selected another — plus five other particularly interesting arguments. To decide these titles, I will use key results and résumés, key averages, poll ratings and my historical SP+ ratings.
The banners can stay up, but let’s talk about who really deserved some rings.
Note: Scoring averages below do not take games against non-Division I (before the 1980s) or FCS opponents into account.
1947: Notre Dame (9-0) vs. Michigan (10-0)
AP poll rankings: Notre Dame first, Michigan second
SP+ rankings: Michigan first (31.8 rating), Notre Dame second (29.9)
Avg. points scored: Michigan 39.4, Notre Dame 32.3
Avg. points allowed: Michigan 5.3, Notre Dame 5.8
Best wins: Notre Dame def. Army (fourth in SP+) 27-7, def. USC (14th) 38-7; Michigan def. USC (14th) 49-0, def. Illinois (19th) 14-7.
Verdict: Michigan. Notre Dame and Michigan became fierce rivals late in the 20th century, but they didn’t play each other between 1943 and ’78, and depending on the apocryphal story you choose to believe, it’s possible that’s because Michigan’s Fritz Crisler haaaaaaated the Fighting Irish. It’s a shame, because if they’d played in 1947, it would have answered a lot of questions.
These two teams were easily the best in the nation that fall. Michigan manhandled a slightly weaker schedule by a larger margin, but as the late Beano Cook was happy to point out, the 1947 Irish might have been the most talented team in the sport’s history to date. Forty-one future pros suited up for head coach Frank Leahy, who rotated them in waves throughout a given game. This sometimes messed up the team’s rhythm, but it still never trailed and won nine games by an average of almost four touchdowns.
I’m giving the nod to the Wolverines, however. They defeated three common opponents (USC, Stanford and Northwestern) by an average score of 49-11, while Notre Dame averaged a 26-9 win. Talent or no, Notre Dame was dominant but not emphatic. Sorry, Beano.
1954: Ohio State (10-0) vs. UCLA (9-0) vs. Oklahoma (10-0)
Poll rankings: Ohio State first (AP) and second (coaches), UCLA first (coaches) and second (AP), Oklahoma third (AP and coaches)
SP+ rankings: Oklahoma second (27.4 rating), Ohio State third (23.1), UCLA 11th (19.2)
Avg. points scored: UCLA 37.5, Oklahoma 30.4, Ohio State 24.9
Avg. points allowed: UCLA 5.0, Oklahoma 6.2, Ohio State 7.5
Best wins: Ohio State def. Wisconsin (12th in SP+) 31-14, def. Iowa (13th) 20-14, def. California (18th) 21-13; UCLA def. Maryland (first) 12-7, def. USC (23rd) 34-0; Oklahoma def. Colorado (16th) 13-6, def. California (18th) 27-13
Verdict: Oklahoma. The early 1950s were a time of shifting power in college football. Both Notre Dame and Alabama were losing their way, and Oklahoma was only beginning its dominance. Teams like Maryland, Georgia Tech and UCLA briefly surged to the top of the totem pole, and with both travel and segregation limiting nonconference opportunities and the final polls being taken before bowls, quite a few teams reached the finish line unbeaten.
In 1954, Woody Hayes’ Ohio State and Red Sanders’ UCLA split shares of the title, while Bud Wilkinson’s Oklahoma, now 19 games into its famous 47-game winning streak, finished third in both polls. Because bowls didn’t take repeats in those days, neither UCLA (which had played in the Rose Bowl in 1953) nor OU (same with the Orange Bowl) got chances to bolster their résumés in the postseason, and between these three teams, only UCLA scored a win over an SP+ top-10 team. The Bruins otherwise trounced an extremely weak Pacific Coast Conference, however, and while Oklahoma had little competition in the Big 7, the Sooners graded out the best of the three in my opponent-adjusted SP+. So we’ll give them an ever-so-slight nod here.
1957: Auburn (10-0) vs. Ohio State (9-1)
Poll rankings: Auburn first (AP) and second (coaches), Ohio State first (coaches) and second (AP)
SP+ rankings: Ohio State fourth (23.0 rating), Auburn sixth (21.4)
Avg. points scored: Ohio State 26.7, Auburn 18.6
Avg. points allowed: Auburn 2.3, Ohio State 9.2
Best wins: Auburn def. Tennessee (10th in SP+) 7-0, def. Florida (15th) 13-0; Ohio State def. Wisconsin (eighth) 16-13, def. Iowa (ninth) 17-13
Losses: Ohio State def. by TCU (42nd) 18-14
Verdict: Auburn. Indeed, segregation limited both rosters and nonconference opportunities in the late 1950s. SEC teams primarily played only Southwest Conference teams and local independents and mid-majors, while integrated Big Ten teams had a bit more of a selection to choose from. They might as well have been playing for different national titles.
In 1957, Auburn played Chattanooga and middling Houston and Florida State teams in nonconference play; the Tigers were banned from the postseason for paying a couple of recruits, too, and head coach Shug Jordan had kicked likely starting quarterback Jimmy Cooke off the team before the season began. But they gave up only four touchdowns all season (one to Chattanooga!) and finished the season with a 40-0 pasting of Alabama. (The loss was humiliating enough for Bama to fire Jennings “Ears” Whitworth and pursue a replacement named Bear Bryant.)
Ohio State took on a more impressive schedule — Wisconsin and Iowa were both excellent, and the Buckeyes beat a decent Oregon in the Rose Bowl — but we’re going to give Auburn the ring here because the Buckeyes began the season with a stinker: TCU won 18-14 in Columbus in September, then proceeded to go just 4-4-1 the rest of the way.
1965: Alabama (9-1-1) vs. Michigan State (10-1)
Poll rankings: Alabama first (AP) and fourth (coaches), Michigan State first (coaches*) and second (AP)
SP+ rankings: Michigan State second (23.7 rating), Alabama fifth (20.1)
Avg. points scored: Michigan State 23.9, Alabama 23.3
Avg. points allowed: Michigan State 6.9, Alabama 9.7
Best wins: Alabama def. Nebraska (sixth in SP+) 39-28, def. LSU (14th) 31-7, def. Ole Miss (20th) 17-16; Michigan State def. Notre Dame (first) 12-3, def. UCLA (seventh) 13-3.
Losses/ties: Alabama tied Tennessee (eighth) 7-7 and def. by Georgia (26th) 18-17; Michigan State def. by UCLA (seventh) 14-12.
Verdict: Michigan State. Duffy Daugherty’s mid-1960s Spartan teams were absolutely loaded. In 1965, Michigan State boasted consensus All-Americans Bubba Smith and George Webster on a defense that never allowed more than 14 points, while the offense featured quarterback Steve Juday and a skill corps with two star backs (Clinton Jones and big Bob Apisa) and deep-threat receiver Gene Washington. The Spartans shut down an otherwise dominant Notre Dame team, and their only loss came in a dramatic last-second finish in the Rose Bowl against a UCLA team they had beaten to start the season.
Alabama was awesome, too. Quarterback Steve Sloan was prolific for his day, the defense held seven of 11 opponents to seven or fewer points, and the Tide outfought an excellent Nebraska in an Orange Bowl track meet. But they had two blemishes, and they lost to a pretty pedestrian Georgia. They sneaked from fourth to first in the AP poll at the end of the season thanks to bowl losses for both Michigan State and No. 2 Arkansas, but Michigan State still finished the season with the best résumé, and I don’t think it was particularly close.
* The final AP poll was administered after bowls for the first time, but the final coaches’ poll was still taken before them for a few more seasons. That produced some funky results.
1966: Notre Dame (9-0-1) vs. Michigan State (9-0-1) vs. Alabama (11-0)
Poll rankings: Notre Dame first (AP and coaches), Michigan State second (AP and coaches), Alabama third (AP and coaches)
SP+ rankings: Notre Dame first (29.2 rating), Michigan State second (24.7), Alabama third (24.5)
Avg. points scored: Notre Dame 36.2, Michigan State 29.3, Alabama 26.7
Avg. points allowed: Notre Dame 3.8, Alabama 4.4, Michigan State 9.9
Best wins: Notre Dame def. Purdue (sixth in SP+) 26-14, def. USC (10th) 51-0; Michigan State def. Purdue (sixth) 41-20, def. Michigan (35th) 20-7; Alabama def. Ole Miss (fifth) 17-7, def. Tennessee (13th) 11-10
Ties: Notre Dame tied Michigan State 10-10
Verdict: Notre Dame. It remains one of the most controversial end-of-season developments of all time. In one of the game’s great Games of the Century, top-ranked Notre Dame, playing a backup quarterback and looking at a long field ahead, kneeled out the final seconds of a 10-10 tie with No. 2 Michigan State, earning the ire of both the Spartans and famed Sports Illustrated columnist Dan Jenkins.
Head coach Ara Parseghian wagered that his Irish would keep their No. 1 ranking with a tie against such an awesome team, and he was right. They didn’t even have to split the title with the Spartans or unbeaten Alabama. Books have been written about this. Alabama fans of the day have never quite gotten over it. With overtime periods and better bowl pairings (and, yes, integration), something like this could never happen today. But it happened then.
Notre Dame was easily the best team of 1966, however. By far. It tied Michigan State in East Lansing with its backup quarterback, after all! Alabama was much improved over the team that sneaked away with the 1965 title, but the Tide would have been at least slight underdogs against either of the nation’s Midwest behemoths, and the Irish still stood out from the pack.
1969: Texas (11-0) vs. Penn State (11-0)
Poll rankings: Texas first (AP and coaches), Penn State second (AP and coaches)
SP+ rankings: Texas first (29.0 rating), Penn State third (24.5)
Avg. points scored: Texas 39.5, Penn State 29.3
Avg. points allowed: Penn State 8.2, Texas 10.8
Best wins: Texas def. Notre Dame (fourth in SP+) 21-17, def. Arkansas (ninth) 15-14; Penn State def. Missouri (12th) 10-3, def. West Virginia (29th) 20-0
Verdict: Texas. Almost nothing could have been as controversial as 1966, but “President puts thumb on national title scales” certainly competes. Both Texas and Arkansas were unbeaten in 1969 when Richard Nixon came to Fayetteville on Dec. 6 for a huge rivalry battle, another Game of the Century candidate that the Longhorns won with fourth-quarter heroics. In the locker room after the game, Nixon presented Texas with a national championship plaque, which was interesting considering (A) the Longhorns still had to face No. 9 Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl and (B) Penn State was also unbeaten and dominant. PSU head coach Joe Paterno was not particularly impressed by the development.
The Horns indeed beat the Fighting Irish to secure No. 1 in both polls, and in retrospect it’s justified. Texas had played a tougher schedule and dominated it more than the Nittany Lions. After unveiling the Wishbone early in 1968, the Longhorns destroyed all comers with it that fall, extending their winning streak to 20 games and eventually inspiring both Alabama and Oklahoma, among others, to adopt it as well. They were the best team of 1969, even if Nixon’s appearance made things weirder than they needed to be.
1970: Nebraska (11-0-1) vs. Texas (10-1)
Poll rankings: Nebraska first (AP) and third (coaches), Texas first (coaches) and third (AP)
SP+ rankings: Texas first (25.2 rating), Nebraska sixth (21.3)
Avg. points scored: Texas 38.5, Nebraska 35.5
Avg. points allowed: Texas 13.5, Nebraska 15.8
Best wins: Nebraska def. LSU (seventh in SP+) 17-12, def. Colorado (21st in SP+) 29-13; Texas def. Arkansas (fourth) 42-7, def. UCLA (20th) 20-17
Losses/ties: Nebraska tied USC (13th) 21-21; Texas lost to Notre Dame (fifth) 24-11
Verdict: Notre Dame! Surprise! The Fighting Irish finished 10-1, lost only to USC late in the season and handled Texas pretty easily in the Cotton Bowl. They finished second in the AP poll behind Nebraska, which did tie the USC team that beat Notre Dame. But the Irish can match Nebraska’s best win thanks to a 3-0 win over LSU in November — Notre Dame playing LSU in November! Let’s bring that back! — and they ended Texas’ 30-game winning streak pretty easily in Dallas.
If we stick to choosing between only Nebraska and Texas, it’s tempting to still give the Longhorns the nod. They were by far the best team of the regular season (as evidenced by their absolute stomping of an otherwise awesome Arkansas), and because neither the Big Eight nor the SWC were particularly great that season, their résumés are pretty equal. But luckily we don’t have to choose between them — we’re going with that plucky upstart from South Bend instead.
1973: Notre Dame (11-0) vs. Alabama (11-1)
Poll rankings: Notre Dame first (AP) and fourth (coaches), Alabama first (coaches) and fourth (AP)
SP+ rankings: Alabama second (27.6 rating), Notre Dame sixth (21.4)
Avg. points scored: Alabama 39.8, Notre Dame 34.7
Avg. points allowed: Notre Dame 8.1, Alabama 9.4
Best wins: Alabama def. LSU (15th in SP+) 21-7, def. Georgia (22nd) 28-14; Notre Dame def. Alabama (second) 24-23, def. USC (17th) 23-14
Losses: Alabama def. by Notre Dame 24-23
Verdict: Notre Dame. I almost threw another curveball here by choosing 10-0-1 Oklahoma instead. The Sooners tied with top-ranked USC in Los Angeles early, then torched six ranked opponents on the way to an easy Big Eight title. They were first in SP+, and they finished the regular season second in the AP poll, ahead of No. 3 Notre Dame; if they hadn’t been banned from the postseason, they might have scored an easy enough Orange Bowl victory to finish No. 1 even though the Irish beat top-ranked Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
They were banned from the postseason, however, and Notre Dame did upset Bama in the Sugar Bowl to finish unbeaten. It beat USC, too. Even with an otherwise unspectacular résumé, that’s enough to get the job done.
That was an epic Sugar Bowl, by the way the Fighting Irish and Crimson Tide met for the first time ever, and Bama was a solid favorite to secure the title and get belated revenge for the 1966 title controversy. Instead, Notre Dame matched it score for score, took a 24-23 lead on a late field goal and secured the upset when Tom Clements completed a huge third-down pass out of his end zone to backup tight end Robin Weber.
1974: Oklahoma (11-0) vs. USC (10-1-1)
Poll rankings: Oklahoma first (AP) and unranked (coaches), USC first (coaches) and second (AP)
SP+ rankings: Oklahoma first (32.4 rating), USC 13th (14.7)
Avg. points scored: Oklahoma 43.0, USC 30.3
Avg. points allowed: Oklahoma 8.4, USC 11.8
Best wins: Oklahoma def. Nebraska (third in SP+) 28-14, def. Texas (11th) 16-13; USC def. Ohio State (fourth) 18-17, def. Notre Dame (10th) 55-24
Losses/ties: USC def. by Arkansas (26th) 22-7 and tied California (52nd) 15-15
Verdict: Oklahoma. This one was split only because, beginning in 1974, the coaches’ poll both (A) began ranking teams after bowls and (B) stopped ranking teams on NCAA probation. Oklahoma, still under sanctions for what we’ll call persistently aggressive recruiting practices (and, in this case, the potential alteration of high school transcripts), was therefore not included, allowing a late-peaking USC team to snare the UPI title.
There should be no mistaking the fact that OU was the best team in the country, however. Only Texas stayed within 14 points of the Sooners, who rolled through seven Big Eight games by an average score of 42-9. With running back Joe Washington thriving in the Wishbone behind a line with multiple All-Americans, and with the Selmon brothers wrecking shop on defense, this was one of the greatest Sooner teams ever.
Meanwhile, USC fielded one of its weakest teams of the era. The Trojans might have been dangerous in a playoff scenario, though — they surged late in the season with a blowout of No. 5 Notre Dame and a Rose Bowl win over Ohio State. They peaked at the right time, but OU was still the best.
1978: Alabama (11-1) vs. USC (12-1)
Poll rankings: Alabama first (AP) and second (coaches), USC first (coaches) and second (Alabama)
SP+ rankings: Alabama second (20.0 rating), USC fourth (18.3)
Avg. points scored: Alabama 28.8, USC 24.5
Avg. points allowed: USC 11.8, Alabama 14.0
Best wins: Alabama def. Nebraska (third in SP+) 20-3, def. Penn State (fifth) 14-7, def. Missouri (14th) 38-20, def. Washington (15th) 20-17; USC def. Alabama (second) 24-14, def. Michigan (seventh) 17-10, def. Michigan State (10th) 30-9, def. Notre Dame (11th) 27-25, def. Washington (15th) 28-10
Losses: Alabama def. by USC 24-14; USC def. by Arizona State (21st) 20-7
Verdict: USC. The late 1970s were the peak of nonconference scheduling. Alabama played four SP+ top-15 teams in its non-con slate — including USC — and then played a fifth in a classic Sugar Bowl against Penn State. USC, meanwhile, played Alabama, Notre Dame and Michigan State and finished with a win over Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Neither team was incredibly dominant from a scoring-margins perspective, but how could you be against these schedules?
I’ve never been a huge “head-to-head matters above all else” guy — yes, USC beat Bama, but you could easily make a counterpoint that Bama had by far a better loss than USC’s to Arizona State — but with these teams both taking on brutal schedules and barely separating themselves in SP+, it’s pretty easy to use USC’s 24-14 victory in Tuscaloosa as a tiebreaker. That the win was pretty emphatic certainly helped. Bama’s Bear Bryant told the media, “It could have been worse,” afterward. USC broke Bama’s 12-game win streak by hanging 417 yards on the Tide (199 from star back Charles White) and dominating the line of scrimmage, and we’ll say that earned them the official national title here.
1990: Georgia Tech (11-0-1) vs. Colorado (11-1-1)
Poll rankings: Colorado first (AP) and second (coaches), Georgia Tech first (coaches) and second (AP)
SP+ rankings: Georgia Tech fourth (19.1 rating), Colorado seventh (17.6)
Avg. points scored: Georgia Tech 31.6, Colorado 30.7
Avg. points allowed: Georgia Tech 15.5, Colorado 17.6
Best wins: Colorado def. Oklahoma (sixth) 32-23, def. Notre Dame (eighth) 10-9, def. Nebraska (ninth) 27-12, def. Washington (11th) 20-14, Georgia Tech def. Clemson (third) 21-19, def. Virginia (fifth) 41-38, def. Nebraska (ninth) 45-21
Losses/ties: Colorado tied Tennessee (16th) 31-31 and lost to Illinois (31st) 23-22; Georgia Tech tied North Carolina (32nd) 13-13
Verdict: Georgia Tech. We got through the 1980s without any split titles, though you certainly could have made the case for Auburn or even Nebraska in 1983 (when Miami came out of nowhere to upset the Huskers and win the crown), and it seems some people will never quite get over BYU winning in 1984. Either way, the 1990s made up for lost time in the controversies department. We began the decade with back-to-back split titles, the first of which was shared by a pair of nontraditional powers.
On average, Miami and Florida State were almost certainly the two best teams in the country in 1990, but both suffered a pair of losses — Miami to BYU and Notre Dame, Florida State to Miami and Auburn — that eliminated them from contention. That left pollsters to decide between a Georgia Tech team with three excellent wins and a half-blemish and a Colorado team with four great wins and 1.5 blemishes.
There are no split titles here, however, and we’re going with Bobby Ross’ Yellow Jackets. The ACC was dynamite in 1990, and not only did Colorado suffer both a tie and a loss (neither to top-15 teams), but the Buffaloes also needed a fifth down to beat Missouri. (And even if their résumés were tied after that, this Mizzou guy is here to remind you that Charles Johnson didn’t score on fifth down, either. Sorry, Buffs. The Ramblin’ Wreck gets the ring.)
1991: Washington (12-0) vs. Miami (12-0)
Poll rankings: Miami first (AP) and second (coaches), Washington first (coaches) and second (AP)
SP+ rankings: Miami first (24.7 rating), Washington second (24.2)
Avg. points scored: Washington 41.3, Miami 32.2
Avg. points allowed: Miami 8.3, Washington 9.6
Best wins: Miami def. Florida State (third in SP+) 17-16, def. Penn State (fourth) 26-20, def. Nebraska (10th) 22-0; Washington def. Nebraska (10th) 36-21, def. California (13th) 24-17, def. Michigan (14th) 34-14
Verdict: Miami. Honestly? This might be the most difficult decision on this list. Both Don James’ Huskies and Dennis Erickson’s Hurricanes were nearly perfect, and it’s a damn shame that these two couldn’t meet in a bowl game.
Washington was perfectly suited to hold up against one of the best Miami teams of the era. The Huskies were explosive on the edge and beyond sturdy in the trenches. Mario Bailey (17 touchdowns, 16.7 yards per catch) was one of the scariest receivers of the 1990s, and the defense was keyed by All-American Steve Emtman up front and ball hawk Walter Bailey (seven INTs, two touchdowns) in the back. The Huskies began the season by handling Nebraska in Lincoln and ended it by pummeling Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Only an excellent Cal could stay particularly close in between.
Since I’m forcing myself to choose, however, I’m going with The U, if only because of the résumé. Miami beat both the third- and fourth-best teams in the country and finished the season by pummeling Nebraska by a slightly larger margin. This would have been an absolute coin-flip matchup on the field, but Miami’s schedule gives it the slightest of nods.
1993: Florida State (12-1) vs. Notre Dame (11-1)
Poll rankings: Florida State first (AP and coaches), Notre Dame second (AP and coaches)
SP+ rankings: Florida State first (24.0), Notre Dame second (23.3)
Avg. points scored: Florida State 41.2, Notre Dame 35.6
Avg. points allowed: Florida State 9.9, Notre Dame 17.9
Best wins: Florida State def. Nebraska (fourth in SP+) 18-16, def. Florida (fifth) 33-21; Notre Dame def. Florida State (first) 31-24, def. Michigan (ninth) 27-23, def. Texas A&M (12th) 24-21
Losses: Florida State def. by Notre Dame (second) 31-24, Notre Dame def. by Boston College (28th) 41-39
Verdict: Florida State. Going by the standards set in the 1978 discussion, Notre Dame should have the edge here: The Irish were nearly as good as FSU overall and scored the key head-to-head win in the teams’ epic mid-November battle.
This was an even more complete Notre Dame team than the one that won the 1988 national title, and while the Irish didn’t manhandle FSU by any means (yards per play: ND 5.2, FSU 5.0), they made an early 24-0 run hold up with a late defensive stand. These two teams were gearing up for a rematch in the Fiesta Bowl … until the Irish fell to Boston College in another classic the next week. This was a pretty solid BC team, but that loss, combined with FSU’s otherwise superior résumé — the Noles finished the season by beating excellent Florida and Nebraska teams — gives FSU the slightest of edges.
1994: Nebraska (13-0) vs. Penn State (12-0)
Poll rankings: Nebraska first (AP and coaches), Penn State second (AP and coaches)
SP+ rankings: Penn State first (23.6 rating), Nebraska third (21.3)
Avg. points scored: Penn State 47.0, Nebraska 35.3
Avg. points allowed: Nebraska 12.5, Penn State 21.0
Best wins: Nebraska def. Colorado (sixth in SP+) 24-7, def. Kansas State (13th) 17-6; Penn State def. Ohio State (ninth) 63-14, def. Michigan (10th) 31-24, def. Illinois (11th) 35-31
Verdict: Penn State. How do we gauge injuries here? Because although Brook Berringer became a legend by filling in at quarterback while star Tommie Frazier was dealing with blood clots, there’s no question that the Huskers were a less dominant team without No. 15. They manhandled Colorado in an enormous No. 2 vs. No. 3 game, but they were less than incredible against teams like Wyoming, Iowa State and a mediocre Oklahoma.
Penn State, on the other hand? Absurdly dominant. Even with a defense that had a propensity for leaking points in garbage time, the quartet of quarterback Kerry Collins, running back Ki-Jana Carter, receiver Bobby Engram and tight end Kyle Brady remains one of the best of all time. That Nebraska survived without Frazier and outlasted Miami in the Orange Bowl after Frazier’s return is obviously impressive. This team sealed the deal on an unbeaten season the way other awesome Tom Osborne teams could not. But Penn State humiliated Ohio State and averaged 47 points per game, and if you ask me who I think would have won head-to-head, I’m going with the Nittany Lions. (If Frazier were in 100% form, as he was in 1995, it’s a different story.)
1997: Nebraska (13-0) vs. Michigan (12-0)
Poll rankings: Michigan first (AP) and second (coaches), Nebraska first (coaches) and second (AP)
SP+ rankings: Nebraska second (22.9 rating), Michigan sixth (18.1)
Avg. points scored: Nebraska 46.7, Michigan 26.8
Avg. points allowed: Michigan 9.5, Nebraska 16.5
Best wins: Nebraska def. Washington (fifth in SP+) 27-14, def. Tennessee (eighth) 42-17, def. Kansas State (10th) 56-26; Michigan def. Ohio State (seventh) 20-14, def. Washington State (14th) 21-16
Verdict: Nebraska. We went against the Huskers in both 1990 and 1993, but they get the nod here, primarily because of offensive upside. Led by Heisman winner Charles Woodson, Michigan boasted the best defense in the country, and while Nebraska’s Blackshirts certainly had their moments (they held three Big 12 opponents to seven combined points and limited Peyton Manning’s Tennessee to 17 in the Orange Bowl), it still wasn’t quite up to the standard set by the 1994 and 1995 units.
Offensively, though? A major, major advantage to Nebraska. The Huskers topped 35 points 10 times in Osborne’s final season in charge. Quarterback Scott Frost made some huge passes, particularly in NU’s narrow Flea Kicker win over Missouri, and the option trio of Frost, I-back Ahman Green and fullback Joel Makovicka was as devastating as ever. Nebraska beat an excellent Washington in Seattle early in the season, beat ranked Kansas State and Texas A&M teams by a combined 110-41 and waylaid Manning and the Vols in the Orange Bowl. Michigan was definitively awesome, too, but left itself with less margin for error on offense. Nebraska would be favored in a hypothetical head-to-head and gets the ring.
2003: LSU (12-1) vs. USC (12-1)
Poll rankings: USC first (AP) and second (coaches), LSU first (coaches) and second (AP)
SP+ rankings: LSU second (23.4 rating), USC fourth (20.1)
Avg. points scored: USC 41.1, LSU 33.9
Avg. points allowed: LSU 11.0, USC 18.4
Best wins: LSU def. Oklahoma (first in SP+) 21-14, def. Georgia (sixth) 34-13, def. Arkansas (11th) 55-24; USC def. Michigan (ninth) 28-14, def. Auburn (20th) 23-0
Losses: LSU def. by Florida (21st) 19-7, USC def. by Cal (37th) 34-31
Verdict: LSU. Even in the BCS era, which promised us a No. 1 vs. No. 2 battle at the end of the season — a massive development in this sport — we ended up with title controversy at times. The BCS’ biggest issue wasn’t the formula; it was its inability to fit three deserving teams onto one title-game field. Having to stop at two teams was particularly controversial in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2011, and it led to the creation of the CFP.
In 2003, Oklahoma was easily the best team of the regular season but hit the skids late in the season as quarterback Jason White’s injuries added up. The Sooners were pummeled by Kansas State in the Big 12 championship but still made the BCS Championship Game over USC. Nick Saban’s best LSU team handled the Sooners in New Orleans, while the Trojans were left to thump Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
It was obligatory that the BCS championship winner take the coaches’ poll crown, but defiant writers gave USC the nod in the AP poll. In the end, the Tigers were slightly more deserving. They had three wins over SP+ top-11 teams (USC had one), their scoring margin was slightly better against a better schedule, and their loss to Florida, though unimpressive, still looked better than USC falling to a Cal team that was still a year from an elite breakthrough.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day was candid in his postgame assessment of the Buckeyes’ 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling on Saturday, acknowledging it was “not a matchup game.”
That was the theme of Week 2, which featured multiple contenders playing FCS opponents or other unranked, lower-level teams. That doesn’t mean there weren’t a few lessons learned.
“Regardless of your opponent, you can see good execution,” Day said. “Whether it’s penalties, assignments, spacing, timing — there’s a crispness to anybody you play.”
Not everyone demonstrated that crispness on Saturday against weaker competition — and it changed the playoff pecking order. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Clemson.) This list is fluid — and it should be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The win against Texas gives the Buckeyes a case for the top spot, as does the eye test, as quarterback Julian Sayin continues to flourish with his accuracy, consistency and minimal mistakes in his first year as a starter. The defense under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia continues to look stifling. Ohio State also benefited this week from Clemson’s struggles against Troy, because it takes some of the shine off LSU’s season-opening road win against Clemson. While Clemson struggled, Texas reasserted itself. The selection committee members would include those results in their discussions as they determine who had the better Week 1 win. With Clemson dropping out of this week’s top 12, that honor now goes to Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still believe that LSU is the better team and reward it for a season-opening road win. Ohio State manhandled Grambling from the onset, a glorified practice in the Shoe against a SWAC team that trailed 35-0 at the half. The committee would consider that both of Ohio State’s wins were at home.
Need to know: The selection committee isn’t supposed to consider last year’s results, so Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t a part of its deliberations, nor is the Associated Press poll ranking. The group evaluates the teams based on their current résumés, so how Texas fares will eventually impact how much the committee values that season-opening win against the Longhorns.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will again have home-field advantage for another marquee matchup, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes’ win against Notre Dame in the season opener separates them from the teams ranked below. They also showed no signs of a letdown against FCS Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Quarterback Carson Beck completed 22 of his first 24 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Canes also accounted for three touchdowns on the ground — a balanced offense the Wildcats had no answer for. The biggest difference for Miami through two games, though, has been a dominant defense.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still reward LSU for winning on the road, whereas both of Miami’s wins were at home. The Seminoles’ win against Bama will carry weight in the room as long as the Tide keep winning, but the reality is that Miami’s win against Notre Dame looks better — at least through two weeks.
Need to know: With Clemson struggling against Troy and losing to LSU, Miami now has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff (46.5%) and earn a first-round bye as one of the committee’s top four teams (14.6%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes get rival Florida at home later this month, but they have to travel to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles have quickly asserted themselves as a team to take seriously this year.
Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still separating the Tigers from other contenders, but it lost some of its impact after Clemson had an underwhelming defensive performance and its offense was stagnant for a second straight week — this time against Troy. LSU had its own issues offensively against Louisiana Tech, which was able to put pressure on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier throughout the game. LSU struggled to establish the run and push the ball downfield through the bulk of three quarters against Louisiana Tech. While LSU struggled, both Ohio State and Miami left no doubt they were the better team.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee does consider factors such as where the game was played, and of the top three teams, LSU is the only one with a win on the road against what is probably still a CFP Top 25 team.
Need to know: The CFP selection committee this year is using a metric called “record strength” to help determine how a team performed against its schedule. LSU entered Week 2 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, second only to Ohio State.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Kentucky 30-23 for their first SEC win and have a 69.8% chance to beat LSU, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Seminoles are still scoring. FSU racked up 70 points against FCS team East Texas A&M — through three quarters. It finished with a 77-3 victory. This FSU team is doing everything it can to make the selection committee forget the 2024 team that won two games. Florida State’s Week 1 win against Alabama was one of the most notable nationally and will continue to help the Noles if the Tide finish as a Top 25 CFP team. The committee also compares common opponents, and although beating East Texas A&M will be a moot point on Selection Day, it’s at least interesting to note that fellow ACC team SMU set the bar in Week 1 when it beat the Lions 42-13.
Why they could be lower: The committee tracks wins against FCS opponents and rewards teams that played tougher opponents. Beating the now 0-2 Lions from the Southland Conference — even with a sledgehammer — isn’t going to earn the Seminoles any bonus points in the room.
Need to know: If the Seminoles can win the unofficial state title by beating rivals Miami and Florida, they could be competing for one of the top four spots and an at-large bid, assuming they finish with one loss or better. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives FSU less than a 50% chance to beat each in-state rival.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win. If that’s FSU’s only regular-season loss, though, the two could meet again in the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State — they led 41-3 at the half — giving them a win against a struggling Big 12 program. The selection committee would view this as a better win than the lopsided beatdown the Ducks handed FCS opponent Montana State in Week 1. The committee respects sheer dominance, though, as evidenced by last year’s evaluation of Indiana, and for the second straight week, Oregon scored at least 59 points.
Why they could be lower: Both of the Ducks’ wins have come against significantly weaker opponents, and both were at home.
Need to know: Oregon won’t play a ranked opponent until it travels to Penn State later this month, and if the Ducks don’t win that game, their best chances to impress the selection committee against CFP Top 25 opponents during the regular season will likely be against Indiana and USC.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 67.7% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule that they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: Penn State shut out FIU and played a clean game with no penalties or turnovers — the first time the program has done that since Oct. 25, 2008, at Ohio State — but every team ranked above the Nittany Lions here has a better win on its résumé.
Why they could be lower: There are still some questions about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions converted just 3 of 12 third downs and were 2-of-4 on fourth down. They also had a slow start — 10-0 halftime lead — and the pass protection from the offensive line was shaky at times.
Need to know: If Penn State goes 0-2 against Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions might have only one win against a CFP Top 25 opponent (Indiana). That’s a scenario where a weak nonconference lineup (Nevada, FIU and Villanova) could haunt them.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols have scored at least 45 points in back-to-back games. They have not missed a step without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The season-opening win against Syracuse was respectable, but the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2, so the jury is still out on the true value of that nonconference win. It’s still better, though, than what some other contenders are lining up and knocking down. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, when the Vols hammered FCS opponent East Tennessee State.
Why they could be higher: There could be a debate between the Vols and Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are the only team ranked above Tennessee without a Power 4 win. Tennessee’s win against a Southern Conference team won’t impress the committee, but unlike Penn State, the Vols have been consistently dominant on offense.
Need to know: Tennessee has the eighth-best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor (51%).
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been more productive than the Bulldogs’ so far, but ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 60% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are right where they’re supposed to be — undefeated heading into Tennessee — but it hasn’t always been pretty. Georgia closed as 46.5-point favorites against Austin Peay and was clinging to an 11-point halftime lead, its narrowest against a non-FBS opponent since 2016 against Nicholls State. Wins against Marshall and Austin Peay wouldn’t stack up well in the selection committee meeting room against some of the wins earned by the teams ranked above the Bulldogs.
Why they could be lower: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t have a single passing touchdown against Austin Peay. He didn’t need to with the Bulldogs’ four rushing touchdowns, but the Dawgs were also stuffed to end the first half after a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (79.7%) and a first-round bye (50.7%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. If Arch Manning continues to improve and can find ways to execute the explosive plays he had on Saturday against SEC competition, the Longhorns will again be one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC.
Why they could be here: Arch Manning and the Longhorns got what they needed — a convincing win against an overmatched opponent and a shot of confidence. But a lopsided win against now 0-2 San Jose State isn’t going to give Texas the boost it needs in the selection committee meeting room. The Longhorns won’t have another opportunity against a ranked opponent until their SEC opener on Oct. 4 at Florida — if the Gators are still a Top 25 team after losing at home to South Florida. The offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, though, is something committee members would notice and continue to track. After a slow start, the Longhorns scored three touchdowns in three minutes and 12 seconds. Manning had four touchdowns on 10 completions at one point in the first half.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to see the committee putting Texas lower during a week in which other contenders also played lower-caliber opponents.
Need to know: If Texas doesn’t lock up a spot in the CFP as the SEC champ, it should still have a strong enough résumé as a two-loss team to earn an at-large bid. Where it gets a little tricky is with a third loss, and that’s where not having a nonconference win against a Power 4 opponent would enter the committee’s discussion. ESPN’s FPI, though, projects Texas to finish as a two-loss team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. This could be a preview of the SEC championship game (again). ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 54% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Irish were idle following their 27-24 season-opening loss at Miami, and the selection committee doesn’t typically move teams that don’t play — unless it’s a result of shuffling around them. The loss to the Canes didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the top 10 because it was close and on the road to a ranked team capable of winning the ACC.
Why they could be lower: Simply because other teams have won two games.
Need to know: How Notre Dame’s opponents fare is critical to the selection process, and it helped the Irish (albeit slightly for now) that Boise State rebounded from its season-opening loss to South Florida. The better the Broncos play, the more respect Notre Dame will earn in the committee meeting room if it beats them on Oct. 4.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame will win out and has the second-best chance to do so behind Ohio State. The rivalry game against the Trojans, though, is the closest thing remaining to a coin toss. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 56.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: For the second straight week, the Illini scored at least 45 points, and this time they did it on the road against a respectable Duke team that won nine games last year. It was a convincing nonconference win on the same night South Carolina struggled to get its offense going early at home against South Carolina State. Iowa State garnered some consideration for this spot after its rivalry win against Iowa, but it didn’t help the Cyclones that Kansas State lost to Army (which also lost to Tarleton State). The selection committee considers opponents’ opponents. The Illini’s win wasn’t flawless, but they’re a veteran team that was able to capitalize on Duke’s mistakes on a night when other contenders either beat up on weaker teams or struggled against them.
Why they could be lower: Illinois led by just one at halftime and was aided by five Duke turnovers. South Carolina has a similar nonconference win against an ACC team, as it opened with a win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies also lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Need to know: Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Oregon or Penn State during the regular season. That doesn’t mean the schedule is easy, but it’s manageable enough to earn an at-large spot if Illinois looks the part of a playoff team and doesn’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 81.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: A nonconference win against a ranked Big Ten opponent will earn respect in the selection committee meeting room. It also came on a day when Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State, one of the SEC’s lower-tier teams, and Florida lost to South Florida at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense got enough pressure on Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to disrupt the Wolverines’ passing game. Sooners quarterback John Mateer accounted for two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown but wasn’t flawless.
Why they could be lower: The Sooners got an upgrade in Mateer, but he can’t do everything. The dual-threat quarterback led the team in passing and rushing, but Oklahoma will need more from its ground game against the SEC schedule.
Need to know: This head-to-head result could come into play later if the Sooners and Michigan are competing for an at-large spot. It’s a tiebreaker in the committee meeting room, and as long as their records are the same, OU will have the edge on Michigan. If Oklahoma is going to stay in the playoff race, though, it has to move up in the ranking, because right now it would be bumped out to make room for the Big 12 champ or the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 USF/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 LSU
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While Week 2 of the college football season did not offer the blockbuster matchups we saw in Week 1, it nonetheless packed a significant punch.
The biggest blows were delivered by South Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon, which scored significant wins that boosted their standing in the College Football Playoff pecking order. But there were plenty of other results — some upsets, some near-misses and some less-than-stellar victories — that impacted the overall bowl picture.
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas
Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: Welcome to the party, South Florida. After dominating Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls backed that up by shocking Florida 18-16. That’s two wins against ranked opponents to start the season, and while the jury remains out on how good Boise State and Florida actually are, no other Group of 5 team can claim as good a start. And for that reason, USF earns the No. 5 projected-champion spot this week.
The other big move this week is Oklahoma, which jumped into picture with a strong showing against Michigan. The John Mateer pickup has worked out as designed so far, and with Temple, Auburn and Kent State up next on the schedule, the expectation here is that the Sooners will take a 5-0 record into the Red River Rivalry game with Texas on Oct. 11.
Schlabach: Most of the top CFP contenders beat up on lesser opponents this week, but there was some shakeup in my top 12 because of a couple of surprising results. I dropped Clemson and Utah for Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy 27-16 at home (the Trojans led 16-0 late in the second quarter), which was probably a result of a hangover from a season-opening loss to LSU.
Utah is still one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I thought it was appropriate to reward the Cyclones for their 16-13 victory over Iowa on Saturday. Likewise for Oklahoma, which was impressive in its 24-13 win over Michigan at home. With a stingy defense and Mateer running the offense, the Sooners could be a serious CFP player this season.
South Florida also gets my Group of 5 conference champion pick after it stunned Florida in the Swamp. If USF can somehow make it three in a row at No. 5 Miami next week, it would be in the driver’s seat for a CFP bid.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just beat Oklahoma State — the Ducks demoralized the Cowboys. No living person was around the last time Oklahoma State lost by as many points, underscoring how lopsided the 69-3 win was. A quarterfinal matchup between the Ducks and Texas would be appointment viewing, but there are really no bad possibilities for this round — at least at this point in the season. This is another benefit of the change to not grant the byes to the top four conference champions. It ensures better matchups in the quarters.
Schlabach: The top six teams in my bracket remain unchanged, although I did shuffle the order after Georgia looked sloppy in its 28-6 victory against FCS program Austin Peay at home. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles and couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on three straight plays at the end of the first half. It wasn’t the kind of performance Georgia coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee.
I dropped the Bulldogs from No. 4 to No. 6 in the seedings, behind No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks had one of the most impressive performances of the week with their 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State. Oregon piled up 631 yards of offense and returned two interceptions for touchdowns, handing Mike Gundy the worst loss in his 20-year tenure at his alma mater.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: As the SEC and Big Ten arms race continues, just imagine the bragging rights that will come when one of the conferences sends two teams to the championship game for the first time in the expanded playoff era. Both leagues have a chance to achieve that this year, but right now — even though it’s way too early in the season to have a real sense of anything — the Big Ten looks like it has better odds. My current projection has Ohio State and Oregon playing for it all, a repeat of last year’s quarterfinal win by the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Schlabach: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon rolled this week, while LSU looked a little lethargic in its 23-7 win against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers might have still been celebrating their 17-10 win at Clemson in Week 1. They’re going to have to be more consistent if they’re going to be a legitimate CFP title contender.
Like Kyle, I am projecting a rematch of last season’s Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl, but I have them meeting in the semifinals, with the Buckeyes again prevailing.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State
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