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Apple's big China headwinds

Apple and Tesla are facing major headwinds in China which is contributing to investor jitters around the two U.S. technology giants.

Tesla shares tanked 12% on Tuesday after the electric carmaker reported deliveries that fell short of analyst expectations, while Apple fell more than 3% as concerns resurfaced about demand for the company’s flagship iPhone in the December quarter.

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Challenges in China are partly behind the stock falls. The world’s second-largest economy accounts for around 17% of Apple’s sales and 23% of Tesla’s revenue, making it a significant market for both American firms.

“China is the hearts and lungs of both demand and supply for both Apple and Tesla. The biggest worry for the Street is that the China economy and consumer are reining in spending and this is an ominous sign” for Apple and Tesla, Daniel Ives, senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities, told CNBC.

“In 2022 the worry was supply chain issues and zero Covid related issues, 2023 is the demand worries and this has cast a major overhang on both Apple and Tesla which heavily rely on the Chinese consumer.”

Apple iPhone demand worries

For Apple, investors have one eye on Apple’s fiscal first-quarter results likely to be released later this month which covers the crucial December holiday period.

But in October, the world’s biggest iPhone factory in Zhengzhou, China, was hit with a Covid outbreak. Taiwanese firm Foxconn, which runs the plant, imposed restrictions. In November, the factory was rocked by worker protests over a pay dispute with many employees walking out of the company. Foxconn has attempted to entice workers back with bonuses. Reuters reported on Tuesday that Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory is almost back to full production.

The episode highlighted Apple’s reliance on China for iPhone production. In early November, after Foxconn imposed Covid restrictions at the factory, Apple said the plant was operating at a “significantly reduced capacity.”

The world’s biggest iPhone factory, located in China and run by Foxconn, faced disruptions in 2022. That is likely to filter through to Apple’s December quarter results. Meanwhile, analysts questioned demand for the iPhone 14 from Chinese consumers.

Nic Coury | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Analysts at Evercore ISI estimate a $5 billion to $8 billion revenue shortfall for Apple in the December quarter. Apple could report a 1% annual decline in revenue in the December quarter, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates. That is worrying investors who were expecting a strong showing for the iPhone 14 series, Apple’s latest smartphone.

But it is not just the supply chain issues Apple is facing now. China has reversed course on its zero-Covid policy as it looks to reopen the economy. Beijing’s policy involved strict lockdowns and mass testing to try to control the virus. Now there are Covid-19 outbreaks across large parts of the country which could impact demand for iPhones.

“The key challenge is expected to be on the demand side, especially since resilient high-end consumers may have started to shift their spending to travel while some may have shifted their focus to medical supplies. The shift in spending will pose a key challenge in the short term,” Will Wong, research manager at IDC, told CNBC.

Tesla delivery miss

Tesla’s Tuesday share price plunge was driven by a miss in vehicle deliveries, the closest approximation of sales disclosed by Elon Musk’s electric carmaker. The 405,278 cars delivered in the fourth quarter of 2022 fell short of expectations of 427,000 deliveries.

Again, the China demand story is in focus as well as the supply chain.

Throughout 2022, Tesla faced Covid disruptions at its Shanghai Gigafactory. But analysts also said there is concern over demand from Chinese consumers.

“Tesla will point to supply disruptions and lockdowns as the main problem in China in 2022.  While these are real headwinds, it cannot hide the fact that demand has softened for a variety of reasons and their order backlog is 70% smaller than it was prior to the Shanghai lockdown,” Bill Russo, CEO at Shanghai-based Automobility, told CNBC.

Lockdowns in Shanghai began in late March 2022 as the megacity’s government sought to control a Covid outbreak.

Investors are also concerned that Tesla will have to cut prices to attract buyers which could pressure margins. In China, Tesla slashed the price of its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in October, reversing some of the price rises it made earlier in the year.

But another major headwind for Tesla in China is the rising competition from domestic rivals like Nio and Li Auto as well as lower-priced competitors, which are launching new models in 2023.

“Tesla’s models have been in the market for a while and are not as fresh to the Chinese consumer as other alternatives. What we are learning is EV product life cycles are short as they are shopped for their technology features. Buying an older EV is like buying last year’s smartphone,” Russo said.

“They need new or refreshed models to reignite the market. Just pricing lower can damage their brand in the long run.”

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Cramer slams Amazon for considering a circular AI deal reminiscent of the dotcom bubble

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Cramer slams Amazon for considering a circular AI deal reminiscent of the dotcom bubble

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Amazon says AI chief Rohit Prasad is leaving, Peter DeSantis to lead ‘AGI’ group

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Amazon says AI chief Rohit Prasad is leaving, Peter DeSantis to lead 'AGI' group

Rohit Prasad, Senior VP & Head Scientist for Alexa, Amazon, on Centre Stage during day one of Web Summit 2022 at the Altice Arena in Lisbon, Portugal.

Ben McShane | Sportsfile | Getty Images

Rohit Prasad, a top Amazon executive overseeing its artificial general intelligence unit, is leaving the company at the end of this year, the company confirmed Wednesday.

As part of the move, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the company is reorganizing the AGI unit under a more expansive division that will also include its silicon development and quantum computing teams. The new division will be led by Peter DeSantis, a 27-year veteran of Amazon who currently serves as a senior vice president in its cloud unit.

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Oracle stock dips 5% on report Blue Owl Capital won’t back $10 billion data center

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Oracle stock dips 5% on report Blue Owl Capital won't back  billion data center

Blue Owl decided not to pursue Oracle’s $10 billion Michigan data center, source familiar

Oracle stock dipped about 5% on Wednesday following a report that discussions with Blue Owl Capital on backing a $10 billion data center in Michigan had stalled, although the cloud company later disputed the report.

Blue Owl had been in talks with Oracle about funding a 1-gigawatt facility for OpenAI in Saline Township, Michigan, according to the Financial Times.

However, the plans fell through due to concerns about Oracle’s rising debt levels and extensive artificial intelligence spending, the FT reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

This comes as some investors raise red flags about the funding behind the rush to build ever more data centers.

The concern is that some hyperscalers are turning to private equity markets rather than funding the buildings themselves, and entering into lease agreements that could prove risky.

Blue Owl did look into the project, but pulled out due to unfavorable debt terms and the structure of repayments, according to a person familiar with the company’s plans who asked not to be named in order to discuss a confidential matter.

Blue Owl is still involved in two other Oracle sites, the person said.

The person added that Blue Owl was also concerned that local politics in Michigan would cause construction delays.

Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks.

“Our development partner, Related Digital, selected the best equity partner from a competitive group of options, which in this instance was not Blue Owl. Final negotiations for their equity deal are moving forward on schedule and according to plan,” Oracle spokesperson Michael Egbert said in a statement.

The cloud company did not name the firm involved in current equity talks for the project.

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CNBC has reached out to the FT for comment.

The FT said that Blackstone is in discussions to potentially replace Blue Owl Capital as a financial partner for the data center, although no deal has been signed yet.

Blue Owl Capital has been the primary investor in Oracle’s data center projects in the U.S., including a $15 billion center in Abilene, Texas, and an $18 billion site in New Mexico, the FT said.

“This appears to be a case where the deal simply wasn’t the right one, and seasoned investors understand that success does not require winning every transaction,” Evercore ISI analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday.

The bank added that digital infrastructure remains a “core growth vertical” for the Blue Owl, noting an upcoming digital infrastructure fund in 2026 that would add to its $7 billion fund announced in May.

Oracle has $248 billion in lease commitments for data centers and cloud capacity commitments over the next 15 to 19 years as of Nov. 30, the company said in its latest quarterly filing. That is up almost 148% from August.

In September, the cloud computing giant raised $18 billion in new debt, according to an SEC filing. That same month, OpenAI announced a $300 billion partnership with Oracle over the next five years.

By the end of November, the company owed over $124 billion, including operating lease liabilities, according to the filing.

Oracle shares are down about 50% from the high of $345.72 reached in September.

Read the full FT story here.

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