Why the Republicans are struggling to pick a new House speaker
It’s been 100 years since American politics has faced a comparable mess.
The engine room of the American democratic machine is rudderless, unable to choose its leader – the speaker of the House.
Tuesday’s ballot chaos, where multiple votes to choose the speaker failed to produce a winner, will be repeated until one person can muster a majority.
But don’t assume this just represents the messy familiarity of democracy. The fight, the division and the bitterness is internal; within one party – a fractured and dysfunctional Republican Party.
What’s the background?
In November’s midterm elections, President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party retained control of the Senate but lost control of the House of Representatives.
The majority and the power in the House was handed to the Republicans. Democratic speaker Nancy Pelosi stepped down and made way for a Republican replacement. The assumption was that it would be Kevin McCarthy.
But the midterm ‘red wave’ – a landslide to the Republican Party because of the perceived weakness of Mr Biden’s Democrats didn’t play out. Defying conventional wisdom on how a serving president’s party performs in the midterms, the Democrats retained the Senate and only lost the House by a narrow margin.
Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi stepped down following the midterms
So why are the Republicans struggling to choose a leader?
Two reasons: first because the party is splintered into different factions – ranging from those far to the right to the more centrist caucus.
And second, because they only have a narrow majority making the arithmetic tricky for Kevin McCarthy who needs 218 votes from a Republican total of 222 seats.
Why does it matter?
In short, without a speaker, the House can’t start the business of governing and legislation. It must continue to hold speaker ballots until a candidate wins. Both camps – the OK (Only Kevin) camp and the Never Kevin camp seem as entrenched as each other.
Looking to history again – back in 1856, just before the US Civil War, it took two months and 133 ballots to find a speaker.
Kevin McCarthy
What’s the issue with Kevin McCarthy?
Mr McCarthy seemed confident he would muster the votes, yet his battle has got harder with the opposition to him growing. There were originally five die-hard ‘never Kevin’ Republicans. But in Tuesday’s votes, the number grew to 14, then 19 and then 20.
In a farcical situation, a number of Republicans voted for their colleague Jim Jordan, who then voted for Mr McCarthy and stated he didn’t want the speakership.
Perhaps even more farcical, and deeply worrying for the Republican Party, the Democratic Party representative Hakeem Jeffries received more votes than Mr McCarthy in the first three votes.
“We may have a battle on the floor,” Kevin McCarthy told reporters after a humiliating day. “But the battle is for the conference and the country, and that’s fine with me.”
The opposition to Mr McCarthy is led by a faction of the party – the House Freedom Caucus, a hard-right group that want changes to the chamber rules.
The Never Kevin grouping put forward various alternative candidates including Arizonan Andy Biggs, nominated by far-right lawmaker Paul Gosar. In the second ballot Jim Jordan was proposed despite not wanting the job.
Kevin McCarthy and Donald Trump in 2020
Is there a Trump factor?
Yes – always. Overnight, speaking to NBC News, the former president said he had not made a decision on supporting Mr McCarthy. But by morning he appeared to have come to a firmer view, telling followers of his Truth Social site that he was backing him.
Mr Trump has been blamed for the lacklustre Republican Party performance in the midterms and for seeding division and splinters within the Republican Party itself.
A record-breaking new congress?
Yes. Beyond the history being made in the speaker election process, the 118th Congress is record-breaking in a number of ways.
It includes a record number of women – 149 – representing 28% of the legislative body. Diversity in the two chambers has improved with 58 women of colour serving. Within the House alone there will be a record number of Latina and Black women.
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The chambers are also getting younger. Only 5% of congress members are under the age of 40 but nearly 21% of the newcomers are younger than 40. The House also now has its first-ever Generation Z member, Democrat Maxwell Frost of Florida, who is 25 years old.
What’s on the agenda once a speaker is found?
Plenty. The Republicans will gain control of several House Committees prompting new investigations which could rock the political landscape.
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Investigations will commence on the financial dealings of President Biden’s son Hunter, the government’s handling of migration on the southern border, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Afghan withdrawal.
Names to watch: James Comer of Kentucky and Jim Jordan of Ohio are likely to be the biggest players when it comes to investigations. Mr Comer is set to chair the House Oversight Committee and Mr Jordan the House Judiciary Committee.
Beyond domestic politics, watch for a real bipartisan focus on China. A new committee is set to focus on competition with China.
“The Chinese Communist Party is the greatest geopolitical threat of our lifetime.” Mr McCarthy said recently in a statement.
World
European leaders to meet in Ukraine for ‘coalition of the willing’ talks – and issue call to Russia
Sir Keir Starmer will join other European leaders in Kyiv on Saturday for talks on the “coalition of the willing”.
The prime minister is attending the event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
It will be the first time the leaders of the four countries will travel to Ukraine at the same time – on board a train to Kyiv – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Follow latest updates on the Ukraine war
Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kiev. Pic: Reuters
Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for the coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement voicing support for Ukraine and calling on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.
“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”
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Putin’s Victory Day parade explained
The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.
But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.
“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.
“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”
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The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.
They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.
This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.
World
Ten explosions near international airport in India-administered part of Kashmir, officials say
Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.
The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.
Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.
An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.
It comes as tensions between India and Pakistan across the line of control around the region of Kashmir have boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.
On Wednesday morning, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.
The retaliation came weeks after 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen in an India-administered part of Kashmir last month.
The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.
India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.
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Conclaves are famously unpredictable affairs – and once again the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new pope caught many by surprise.
The newly elected Pope Leo XIV won the consensus of the 133 cardinal electors after only four ballots – a fast process for a diverse college of cardinals.
Though his name had circulated among some Vatican watchers, other cardinals had emerged as clear front-runners, including Pietro Parolin – the Vatican’s number two who would have been the first Italian in almost 50 years to become pontiff – or Luis Tagle, a Filipino cardinal looking to become the first Asian pope.
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What are the conclave’s secrecy measures?
Instead, it was the first North American to win the highly secretive process.
So, what went on behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel?
Until Thursday lunchtime, Cardinal Parolin was ahead, gathering between 45 and 55 votes, sources say.
A substantial number, but well short of the 89 votes he needed for a two-thirds majority.
At this point, Cardinal Prevost had between 34 and 44 votes.
But as the Italian struggled to grow his support during the first three rounds of voting, he stepped down from the race, endorsing Prevost instead, Sky News understands.
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Who is Pope Leo?
An internal battle between Luis Tagle and Pablo Virgilio David – both cardinals hailing from Asia – cancelled out both of their chances.
And a contender from Africa – the most conservative sector of the church – was never likely for a conclave where the overwhelming majority of cardinals had been appointed by Francis, a progressive pontiff, sources say.
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Moment new pope emerges on balcony
An American pope has long been seen as highly improbable, given the geopolitical power of the US.
But Cardinal Prevost was able to draw from across the groups making up the electors: moderate US cardinals, South American cardinals and many European cardinals all coalesced around him.
Italian newspaper La Repubblica said Prevost “certainly attracted cross-party preferences, both ideologically and geographically”.
“In the conclave he was the least American of Americans: Born in Chicago, he lived 20 years in Peru,” the newspaper said.
It added: “As a man used to teamwork, Prevost appeared to many as the right man to make the papacy evolve into a more collegial form.”
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