It’s been 100 years since American politics has faced a comparable mess.
The engine room of the American democratic machine is rudderless, unable to choose its leader – the speaker of the House.
Tuesday’s ballot chaos, where multiple votes to choose the speaker failed to produce a winner, will be repeated until one person can muster a majority.
But don’t assume this just represents the messy familiarity of democracy. The fight, the division and the bitterness is internal; within one party – a fractured and dysfunctional Republican Party.
What’s the background?
In November’s midterm elections, President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party retained control of the Senate but lost control of the House of Representatives.
The majority and the power in the House was handed to the Republicans. Democratic speaker Nancy Pelosi stepped down and made way for a Republican replacement. The assumption was that it would be Kevin McCarthy.
But the midterm ‘red wave’ – a landslide to the Republican Party because of the perceived weakness of Mr Biden’s Democrats didn’t play out. Defying conventional wisdom on how a serving president’s party performs in the midterms, the Democrats retained the Senate and only lost the House by a narrow margin.
Image: Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi stepped down following the midterms
So why are the Republicans struggling to choose a leader?
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Two reasons: first because the party is splintered into different factions – ranging from those far to the right to the more centrist caucus.
And second, because they only have a narrow majority making the arithmetic tricky for Kevin McCarthy who needs 218 votes from a Republican total of 222 seats.
Why does it matter?
In short, without a speaker, the House can’t start the business of governing and legislation. It must continue to hold speaker ballots until a candidate wins. Both camps – the OK (Only Kevin) camp and the Never Kevin camp seem as entrenched as each other.
Looking to history again – back in 1856, just before the US Civil War, it took two months and 133 ballots to find a speaker.
Image: Kevin McCarthy
What’s the issue with Kevin McCarthy?
Mr McCarthy seemed confident he would muster the votes, yet his battle has got harder with the opposition to him growing. There were originally five die-hard ‘never Kevin’ Republicans. But in Tuesday’s votes, the number grew to 14, then 19 and then 20.
In a farcical situation, a number of Republicans voted for their colleague Jim Jordan, who then voted for Mr McCarthy and stated he didn’t want the speakership.
Perhaps even more farcical, and deeply worrying for the Republican Party, the Democratic Party representative Hakeem Jeffries received more votes than Mr McCarthy in the first three votes.
“We may have a battle on the floor,” Kevin McCarthy told reporters after a humiliating day. “But the battle is for the conference and the country, and that’s fine with me.”
The opposition to Mr McCarthy is led by a faction of the party – the House Freedom Caucus, a hard-right group that want changes to the chamber rules.
The Never Kevin grouping put forward various alternative candidates including Arizonan Andy Biggs, nominated by far-right lawmaker Paul Gosar. In the second ballot Jim Jordan was proposed despite not wanting the job.
Image: Kevin McCarthy and Donald Trump in 2020
Is there a Trump factor?
Yes – always. Overnight, speaking to NBC News, the former president said he had not made a decision on supporting Mr McCarthy. But by morning he appeared to have come to a firmer view, telling followers of his Truth Social site that he was backing him.
Mr Trump has been blamed for the lacklustre Republican Party performance in the midterms and for seeding division and splinters within the Republican Party itself.
A record-breaking new congress?
Yes. Beyond the history being made in the speaker election process, the 118th Congress is record-breaking in a number of ways.
It includes a record number of women – 149 – representing 28% of the legislative body. Diversity in the two chambers has improved with 58 women of colour serving. Within the House alone there will be a record number of Latina and Black women.
The chambers are also getting younger. Only 5% of congress members are under the age of 40 but nearly 21% of the newcomers are younger than 40. The House also now has its first-ever Generation Z member, Democrat Maxwell Frost of Florida, who is 25 years old.
What’s on the agenda once a speaker is found?
Plenty. The Republicans will gain control of several House Committees prompting new investigations which could rock the political landscape.
Investigations will commence on the financial dealings of President Biden’s son Hunter, the government’s handling of migration on the southern border, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Afghan withdrawal.
Names to watch: James Comer of Kentucky and Jim Jordan of Ohio are likely to be the biggest players when it comes to investigations. Mr Comer is set to chair the House Oversight Committee and Mr Jordan the House Judiciary Committee.
Beyond domestic politics, watch for a real bipartisan focus on China. A new committee is set to focus on competition with China.
“The Chinese Communist Party is the greatest geopolitical threat of our lifetime.” Mr McCarthy said recently in a statement.
A posse of European leaders will join the meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will join the talk “at the request of President Zelenskyy”, adding that she “and other European leaders” will be meeting at the White House on Monday.
Also set to join in are Sir Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
Mr Stubb’s friendship with Mr Trump is said to have blossomed since the pair bonded over their love of golf during a tournament at Mar-a-Lago in March.
Image: Donald Trump and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb during a golf tournament at Mar-a-Lago. Pic: Finnish Presidential Office/Reuters
Mr Stubb previously said that Mr Trump is “the only person who can broker a peace” deal, saying the US president was “the only one that Putin is afraid of”.
Bringing a gang of leaders along could be an attempt by Mr Zelenskyy to prevent a repeat of the infamous Oval Office showdown with Mr Trump and the vice-president, JD Vance, in February.
Image: Zelenskyy and Trump during their exchange in the Oval Office. Pic: Reuters
They were set to discuss a potential ceasefire with Russia and a mineral deal between Ukraine and the US, but their meeting descended into chaos when Mr Vance berated Ukraine’s leaderfor being insufficiently grateful for US help – in front of the media.
He completed his ambush of Mr Zelenskyy by mocking him for not wearing a suit, with Mr Trump adding that the Ukrainian didn’t “have the cards right now with us”.
The disastrous meeting ended with Mr Zelenskyy prematurely leaving the White House. He later said the bust-up was “not good for both sides”.
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump argued in the White House. Pic: Reuters
At the US-Russia summit on Friday, Mr Trump (quite literally) rolled out the red carpet for Mr Putin and even let the Russian leader take a ride with him in the presidential limousine dubbed The Beast.
Mr Zelenskyy is set for a less warm welcome, with no red carpet or fly past, no round of applause, according to Sky News’ US correspondent Martha Kelner.
The atmosphere may be more businesslike with European leaders like Mr Stubb in Mr Zelenskyy’s corner, and their inclusion as mediators could help prevent a repeat of the Oval Office clash.
Image: Mr Putin and Mr Trump greet each other on the red carpet in Alaska. Pic: Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/Pool/EPA/Shutterstock
Mr Stubb has repeatedly voiced support for Ukraine, and Finland, along with other Nordic countries and the three Baltic states, has been among the country’s staunchest supporters.
The 2022 invasion prompted Finland, which shares a 1,340-km (833-mile) border with Russia, to join NATO two years ago, upending decades of non-alignment.
Two days before the Alaska summit, Mr Zelenskyy, Mr Trump and European leaders, including Mr Stubb, were on a conference call, after which the Finnish leader wrote on X: “Excellent meeting with @Potus and European leaders, including @ZelenskyyUA. Aligned views and unity.
“We are working together for a ceasefire and a sustainable peace. We are there for Ukraine every step of the way. The next few days and weeks can be decisive.”
Retired French General Dominique Trinquand, a former head of France’s military mission at the United Nations, said European leaders were “very afraid of the Oval Office scene being repeated and so they want to support Mr Zelenskyy to the hilt”.
“It’s a power struggle and a position of strength that might work with Trump,” he added.
More than 30 people have been arrested in Israel for “disruption of order” as families of hostages held in Gaza step up their campaign with a nationwide strike.
Protestors are demanding the Israel government make a deal to secure the release of hostages held by militants in Gaza.
The campaign escalated on Sunday, with demonstrators staging a “day of stoppage” that blocked traffic and closed businesses.
Protesters gathered at dozens of points throughout Israel, including outside politicians’ homes, military headquarters and on major highways, where they were sprayed with water cannons as they blocked lanes and lit bonfires that cloaked roads in smoke.
Image: Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Police said they had arrested 32 people as part of the nationwide demonstration – one of the fiercest since the uproar over six hostages found dead in Gaza last September.
The action comes weeks after militant groups released videos of hostages and Israel signalled plans for a new Gaza offensive.
Image: Pic: AP
Protesters fear further fighting could endanger the 50 hostages believed to remain in Gaza, only about 20 of whom are thought to be alive.
The demonstrators chanted: “We don’t win a war over the bodies of hostages.”
Image: Pic: AP
“Military pressure doesn’t bring hostages back – it only kills them,” former hostage Arbel Yehoud said at a demonstration in Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square.
“The only way to bring them back is through a deal, all at once, without games.”
Anat Angrest, mother of hostage Matan Angrest, added: “Today, we stop everything to save and bring back the hostages and soldiers.
“Today, we stop everything to remember the supreme value of the sanctity of life.
“Today, we stop everything to join hands – right, left, centre and everything in between.”
Image: Protesters in Tel Aviv on Saturday. Pic: AP
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has demanded the immediate release of the hostages but is haunted by the potential for mutiny within his coalition.
Far-right members of his cabinet insist they won’t support any deal that allows Hamas to retain power. The last time Israel agreed to a ceasefire that released hostages, they threatened to topple Mr Netanyahu’s government.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich branded the stoppage “a bad and harmful campaign that plays into Hamas’ hands, buries the hostages in the tunnels and attempts to get Israel to surrender to its enemies and jeopardise its security and future”.
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2:29
Remaining hospitals in Gaza overwhelmed with malnutrition cases
Israel is currently preparing for an invasion of Gaza City and other populated parts of the besieged strip, aimed at destroying Hamas.
The military body that coordinates its humanitarian aid to Gaza said that the supply of tents to the territory would resume.
Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) said it would allow the United Nations to resume importing tents and shelter equipment into Gaza ahead of plans to forcibly evacuate people from combat zones “for their protection”.
Meanwhile in Gaza, the health ministry said two children died on Sunday due to malnutrition-related causes – reportedly bringing the total over the last 24 hours to seven.
Also on Sunday, Israeli airstrikes targeted a power plant in Yemen’s capital of Sanaa.
The action escalates strikes on Iran-backed Houthis, who since the war began have fired missiles at Israel and targeted ships in the Red Sea.
Israel’s military said the strikes targeted energy infrastructure it claimed was being used by the Houthis, and were launched in response to missiles and drones aimed at Israel.
There will be no red carpet or fly past, no round of applause when Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in Washington DC on Monday.
But the bitter memory of his last visit to the White House will feature prominently in the Ukrainian president’s thoughts.
In February, he was mocked for not wearing a suit and told he didn’t “have the cards” by US President Donald Trump, before being walked off the premises early, like an unruly patron being thrown out of the bar.
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3:10
Blow-by-blow: Inside Zelenskyy and Trump’s February clash
Zelenskyyknows he is risking another ambush in the Oval Office but has to present himself as a willing participant in peace talks, out of fear of being painted as the obstacle to a resolution.
There was initially measured optimism in Kyiv after Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, because it appeared that no deal had been cut between Washington and the Kremlin without Ukrainein the room, as had been feared.
In the heady heights of a meeting with strongman Putin, he seemed to have abandoned the one key thing that European leaders had impressed upon him – that there had to be an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine as an absolute starting point to a permanent resolution.
Trump had apparently reached the conclusion that no ceasefire was required. “The best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine… is to go directly to a peace agreement,” is how he put it on his Truth Social media account.
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23:24
Trump-Putin summit – The Debrief
That sent shockwaves through Kyiv.
Many there and elsewhere believe Russia has no intention of stopping the war yet, and will use its military advantage on the battlefield to pressure Ukraine in drawn-out negotiations to give up more territory.
In the meantime, the slaughter of Ukrainians will continue.
It is the most dramatic of 180s from Trump, who before the meeting and after lobbying from European leaders had said he would not be happy if Putin failed to agree to a ceasefire, and even promised “severe consequences”.
Yet now reports suggest Trump is giving credence to the Russian position – in a phone call to Zelenskyy he laid out Putin’s proposal that Ukraine relinquishes even more territory, in return for an end to the war.
The Ukrainian president will have, no doubt, been distressed to see the pictures of Putin being greeted like a king on an American military base in Alaska. It is in direct contrast to how he was hosted on US soil.
In Trump’s orbit everything is a personality contest, and where he has very obvious deference to Putin, he has disdain for Zelenskyy. That makes the Ukrainian’s position very difficult.