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More than 40% of Earth’s glacial mass could disappear if humanity keeps investing in fossil fuels, warns a stark new projection.

The bleak scenario would mean more than two thirds of the total number of glaciers would vanish by the end of the century, contributing to ever-increasing sea levels around the world.

Lead researcher David Rounce, who is the assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at Pittsburgh’s College of Engineering, led an international effort to produce the new projection.

Even in that best-case scenario, Professor Rounce’s team found that almost 50% of glaciers would disappear, accounting for more than 25% of total glacial mass, by 2100.

A previous study warned that the Earth is already destined for 1.5C of warming.

While most of the glaciers lost under Professor Rounce’s projections are small by global standards, measuring less than one kilometre squared, the disappearance of so many of them would add up.

Catastrophic glacier loss is already being felt across the globe.

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Last year, Switzerland’s glaciers were found to have shrunk by half in less than a century – and the country’s oldest glacier has had to be covered by special white blankets to prevent it from melting.

The thawing has been so intense that a Sky News team was able to witness an aircraft wreck dating back to 1968, which re-emerged without warning in the Swiss Alps when the ice hiding it started to melt.

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Melting Swiss glaciers reveal old plane wreckage

Melting glaciers also contributed to last summer’s catastrophic flooding in Pakistan, which is home to more glaciers than anywhere outside the Arctic and Antarctic.

Located in the northern Himalayas, Pakistan has some 7,000 glaciers, and rising temperatures – which reached almost 50C (122F) in the city of Nawabshah in 2022 – are causing them to melt and form glacial lakes.

Scientists have also issued warnings about the melting of Antarctica’s so-called “doomsday glacier”, the complete collapse of which could raise sea levels by 60cm.

The impact would be so far-reaching that it would even have “severe consequences” for the UK.

But Professor Rounce warned that even a complete halt of global emissions would not be reflected in the rate that glaciers are disappearing for decades – potentially taking up to 100 years.

He describes glaciers as “extremely slow-moving rivers”, the impact of which takes time to be felt.

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Major glaciers to disappear by 2050

Watch the Daily Climate Show at 3.30pm Monday to Friday, and The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3.30pm and 7.30pm.

All on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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Plane crashes into college campus in Bangladesh – at least 19 people dead

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Plane crashes into college campus in Bangladesh - at least 19 people dead

At least 19 people have died after a Bangladesh air force plane crashed into a college campus, the military said.

The aircraft crashed into the campus of Milestone School and College in Uttara, in the northern area of the capital Dhaka, where students were taking tests or attending regular classes.

The pilot was one of the people killed, and, according to the military, 164 were injured in the incident.

The Bangladesh military’s public relations department added that the aircraft was an F-7 BGI, and had taken off at 1.06pm local time before crashing shortly after.

Video shows fire and smoke rising from the crash site, with hundreds looking on.

Pic: Reurters
The wreckage of an air force training aircraft after it crashed into Milestone College campus, in Dhaka.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pics: Reuters

The cause of the crash was not immediately clear.

Bengali-language daily newspaper Prothom Alo said that most of the injured were students with burn injuries.

Firefighters and volunteers work after an air force training aircraft crashed into Milestone College campus, in Dhaka.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pics: Reuters

Citing the duty officer at the fire service control room, Prothom Alo also reported that the plane had crashed on the roof of the college canteen.

Read more from Sky News:
Police search for missing woman last seen at petrol station
Six arrests after nearly 250 children poisoned by lead in food

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Rafiqa Taha, a 16-year-old student at the school who was not present at the time of the crash, told the Associated Press that the school has around 2,000 students.

“I was terrified watching videos on TV,” she added. “My God! It’s my school.”

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Homes burning after mass pillaging and 30,000 trapped in besieged city – as Syria’s fragile ceasefire holds

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Homes burning after mass pillaging and 30,000 trapped in besieged city - as Syria's fragile ceasefire holds

The main road entering the besieged Syrian city of Sweida from the west has changed dramatically over 12 hours.

A bulldozer, parked on the side of the road, has been used to create several berms to form a sand barrier around 25km (16 miles) from the city centre.

Dozens of Syrian security forces were standing in lines in front of the barricades when we arrived, and there were forces further up the road stopping vehicles from going any further.

Security forces at checkpoint
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Syrian security forces at a checkpoint outside the besieged city

The Arab tribal fighters we’d seen fighting furiously inside the city the day before were now all camped alongside the road. Some were sleeping on the back of their pick-ups.

“We’re not giving up,” one shouted to us as we walked towards the checkpoint.

The ceasefire agreement between Druze leaders who are bunkered down inside the city and the Bedouins – and the tribal fighters who have flocked to join them – has frustrated some.

Some of them, waiting with guns slung over their backs, are itching to return to battle. But for now, tribal leaders have instructed them to hold fire.

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Read more: Who are the Druze and who are they fighting in Syria?

Arab fighters blocked from going forward
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Arab tribal fighters have been blocked from entering Sweida by security forces

How long that will last is probably key to Syria’s future and whether it can be a peaceful one.

Khalaf al Modhi, the head of a group of tribes called United Tribes, told the group of fighters: “We are not against the Druze. We are not here to kill the Druze.”

But he spent many minutes castigating the senior Druze cleric inside Sweida whom many of the tribes see as the agitator behind the violent clashes.

An Arab tribal chief
Image:
Khalaf al Modhi, who is the leader of a tribal group called United Tribes

Hikmat al Hijiri is head of a Druze faction that is deeply suspicious of the new government led by Ahmed al Sharaa and is resisting ceding power to Damascus.

The retreat of the Arab tribes from the city centre means the Druze militia under Hijiri’s control are now the ones deciding who goes in or out of the city.

About 30,000 mostly Druze people are thought to be trapped inside the city and surrounding towns, with no electricity, little internet and dwindling supplies of food and water.

Druze civilian Kamal Tarrabey
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Druze civilian Kamal Tarrabey. He said 10 of his relatives were killed in the violent clashes

The humanitarian situation is dramatically worsening by the day. But at the time of writing, there were still no agreed safe corridors to bring out those pinned inside.

On top of this, there are nearly 130,000 people displaced and forced out of their homes because of the fighting, according to UN estimates.

Maintaining the ceasefire is key to ensuring solutions are found to help those suffering, and quickly. It’s also the most serious challenge facing the new Syrian leader and his interim government.

The level of distrust between the Hijiri-led Druze faction and the new government is strong and deep. So much so that the Druze leaders have refused to accept truckloads of aid organised by any of the government outlets.

White Helmets wait
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The White Helmets wait outside Sweida as the Druze leaders accept little aid from them due to their government connections

The new Syrian leader has struggled to convince the country’s minorities that their safety under his leadership is assured.

Druze civilians and human rights activists reported mass killings and executions of Druze by government troops who were sent in last week to quell the latest clashes between the Druze and Arab Bedouins who have been at odds for many years.

Read more from Sky News:
At least 67 killed while waiting for aid in Gaza, officials say
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A map showing Syria and Israel in relation to Sweida, where there have been deadly clashes in recent days

Government forces pulled out of the city only after Israel unleashed a spate of airstrikes, saying they were defending the Druze. The bombings killed hundreds of Syrian troops.

But with the withdrawal of the government troops, the Arab Bedouin population said the city’s Druze militia embarked on a string of revenge atrocities.

That in turn led to thousands of tribal fighters massing from around the country to defend their Arab brethren.

Smoke rises from buildings in the city centre of Sweida
Image:
Smoke rises from buildings in the city centre of Sweida

When we were inside the city, we saw multiple corpses lying on the streets, and many appeared to have been killed with a shot to the head.

Homes and businesses are still burning after mass pillaging as fighters retreated.

And now, there is a growing humanitarian disaster unfolding.

Additional reporting by camera operator Garwen McLuckie, specialist producer Chris Cunningham, as well as Syrian producers Mahmoud Mossa and Ahmed Rahhal.

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Who are the Druze and who are they fighting in Syria?

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Who are the Druze and who are they fighting in Syria?

Sky News special correspondent Alex Crawford is in Sweida in Syria, where she has witnessed mutilated, burned and decomposing bodies after a week of fierce fighting in the region.

Government security forces have been redeployed to enforce the first day of a US-brokered ceasefire. Tensions remain high with fears of further violent clashes. Hundreds have died.

The clashes involve a religious sect called the Druze and other rivals factions in Syria.

Here’s what you need to know about the conflict and who’s involved.

Who are the Druze?

The Druze religious sect is an offshoot of Ismailism, a branch of Shiite Islam. About half of the roughly one million Druze worldwide live in Syria, with most others in Lebanon and Israel, including the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

A fighter raises his gun near the city of Sweida amid a fragile ceasefire
Pic: Chris Cunningham
Image:
A fighter raises his gun near the city of Sweida amid a fragile ceasefire. Pic: Chris Cunningham

The Druze largely celebrated the downfall of Bashar al Assad in December after an almost 14-year civil war, but were divided over interim president Ahmad al Sharaa, a former militant linked to al Qaeda who led Islamist rebels to overthrow the Syrian autocrat.

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A few months after the transition government forces clashed with pro-Assad armed groups on Syria’s coast, spurring sectarian attacks that killed hundreds of civilians from the Alawite religious minority to which the former president belongs. (Assad now reportedly lives in exile in Russia).

A map showing Syria and Israel in relation to Sweida, where there have been deadly clashes in recent days

The violence left other minority groups, including the Druze in the south, and the Kurds in the northeast, increasingly mistrustful of the new Sharaa government and worried whether it would protect them.

Multiple Druze militias have existed for years, originally set up to protect their communities against ISIS fighters and drug smugglers – and they have been reluctant to lay down their arms.

Government supporters often paint Druze factions as potential separatists or tools of Israel, where they are seen as a loyal minority within and often serve in its military.

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A ‘city on fire’ – this is what Syria’s ceasefire looks like.

What are the factions?

Diana Darke, an author, Arabist and Middle East cultural writer, told Sky presenter Barbara Serra there are three main Druze factions, two of which are keen to ally with the government, but the third is controlled by anti-government leader Hikmat al Hijri.

Sky News special correspondent Alex Crawford says that that faction feels vulnerable and mistrusts the government, who they see as Islamic jihadis.

Why did the violence break out?

Deadly clashes broke out last Sunday in the southern province surrounding the city of Sweida between Druze militias and local Sunni Muslim Bedouin tribes.

Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said the conflict started with the kidnapping and robbery of a Druze vegetable seller by members of a Bedouin tribe who set up a checkpoint, leading to tit-for-tat attacks and kidnappings.

Ms Darke says “horrible outbreaks of sectarian violence” are inevitable in a civil war-ravaged country with so many groups – and Sharaa doesn’t have “enough manpower” to prevent it.

Tribal fighters who came to fight against Druze groups
Image:
Tribal fighters who came to fight against Druze groups

Who else is involved?

Hijri called for intervention from Israel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they would help to protect the Druze.

Israel bombed key military installations and carried out airstrikes which killed hundreds of Syrian government troops, who were initially sent to restore order before effectively siding with the Bedouins.

Thousands of fighters from Arab tribal groups across Syria also flocked to the area to support the Bedouin tribe.

“There has been absolutely brutal mayhem and total anarchy inside the city with mass looting, mass pillaging, and it looks like a substantial number of deaths,” says Crawford.

She says the tribes claim they “are not against the Druze, that this is not a sectarian fight, although it looks very much like that to outsiders like myself and many others”.

They have been directing their anger towards Hijri faction, with Khalaf al Modhi, the head of one group called United Tribe, seen telling followers: “We aren’t here to fight and kill Druze… we are here to stop that criminal Hijri who asked Israel to bomb our country.”

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A ‘city on fire’ – this is what Syria’s ceasefire looks like.

Has a ceasefire been negotiated?

By Wednesday, a truce had been negotiated, allowing Druze factions to maintain security in Sweida as government forces pulled out, although fighting between the Druze and Arab factions continued.

Crawford says she’s been talking to doctors, engineers, and architects who’ve travelled from the cities of Aleppo and Damascus with guns on their backs primarily to provide humanitarian aid, but also to fight Hijri, “who they see as a criminal gang leader who now has the backing of Israel”.

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The US, another key global player, has indicated its displeasure with the Israeli strikes in Syria and with the government for withdrawing its troops from Sweida.

US special envoy to Syria Tom Barrack announced a ceasefire had been brokered between Israel and Syria on Saturday, hours before Syria’s internal security forces began redeploying to Sweida in a bid to restore order.

Syrian leader Sharaa said Sweida “remains an integral part of the Syrian state, and the Druze constitute a fundamental pillar of the Syrian national fabric,” vowing to protect all minorities in Syria.

What could happen next?

The situation has calmed, but it could go either way, says Crawford, adding: “I wouldn’t describe the ceasefire as anything other than fragile and shaky.”

Afraa Hashem from the Syria Campaign group said the chain of violence “is not isolated” and is growing beyond southern Syria.

“It’s spreading in northern Syria and dragging Syria towards civil war,” she told Sky presenter Barbara Serra.

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