What next for the deadlocked US House Speaker race?

Published

2 years ago

January 5, 2023

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Despite winning a majority in the House of Representatives in last year’s midterm elections, the Republican Party has found itself so far unable to elect a speaker.

Riven by internecine warfare between Trump supporters and more establishment members, there have so far been six rounds of votes that have all seen the Republican leader, Kevin McCarthy, fail to get the required 218 votes.

The election of the speaker is normally a formality, with leader of the largest party in the House normally a shoo-in for the job, however the splits in the party have led to the first defeat of a nominee in a century.

Here are the possible outcomes to break the historic stalemate on Capitol Hill.

1. Kevin McCarthy wins

There remains the possibility that Kevin McCarthy could finally win-round the dissenting Republicans and get his bid across the line.

The California congressman insists he will persist until he gets enough votes, telling reporters on Wednesday: “We stay until we win”.

But given that there are only 222 Republicans in the chamber following a worse than expected performance in November’s midterms, and 20 of them are currently refusing to back McCarthy, he finds himself in an uphill battle for the gavel.

2. An alternative candidate is found

There are several alternative candidates who might be able to win over enough of the Trump supporting hardliners to take the post ahead of Mr McCarthy.

Steve Scalise

Republican whip Steve Scalise, currently Mr McCarthy’s number 2 in the House, has been discussed as a potential alternative. The Louisiana congressman is entering his eighth term in the house and is widely respected after surviving being shot by a left-wing extremist during a practice for the annual congressional baseball game in 2017.

In an internal Republican Party poll in November, he was elected unopposed to the position of majority leader, the second highest rank in the House after the Speaker. However, he has so far remained resolute in his support for Mr McCarthy and urged colleagues to unite and support him, meaning rebels may be unlikely to accept him as an alternative.

Elise Stefanik

The third ranking Republican in the House is New York representative Elise Stefanik. Having started out as a centrist candidate following her election in 2014, she has drifted further to the right in recent years and been a vocal supporter of Donald Trump.

Last year, she was elected to replace Liz Cheney as the chair of the House Republican Conference after the former vice president’s daughter was ousted over her criticism of President Trump.

This could make her an attractive proposition for the Trumpian rebels. However, some hard-line dissenters, such as Montana congressman Matt Rosendale, have suggested that no one involved in House Republican leadership for the past decade would be acceptable.

Byron Donalds

The 20 Republican rebels all voted for second term Florida congressman Byron Donalds on Wednesday, making him a potential but unlikely candidate for the roll.

Were he to win, he would be the first black American to lead the lower house.

However, Mr Donalds has so far voted for Mr McCarthy in two of the six ballots and his relative inexperience makes it improbable the 44-year-old will take the gavel.

Jim Jordan

Ohio Representative Jim Jordan has also at one point received the support of all the rebels in one of the six ballots so far held for the roll.

However, he has himself said there is virtually no chance of him becoming Speaker, telling reporters after the third round of voting “I’m being clear, I want to chair the Judiciary Committee. I like this ability to cross-examine witnesses and get the truth for the country.”

He then went on to urge the rebels to vote for Mr McCarthy.

Hakeem Jeffries

So far, the candidate to receive the greatest number of votes, though not the required 218 to win, has been the Democratic nominee Hakeem Jeffries.

The New York congressman has received 212 in all the rounds of ballots so far held with the entire Democratic Party uniting behind him. However, six Republicans are unlikely to cross the aisle to vote for him, making his election virtually impossible.

3. Wild card

Though the Speaker has always been a member of the House, they do not actually have to be an elected member of the chamber according to the constitution. This theoretically means the Republican rebels could nominate Donald Trump for the post as some democrats did with Joe Biden in 2019. However, this too remains highly unlikely.

US

Cardi B ‘wasn’t going to vote’ until Harris entered race – as National Guard activated in US state ‘in case of election violence’

Published

7 hours ago

November 2, 2024

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Cardi B 'wasn't going to vote' until Harris entered race - as National Guard activated in US state 'in case of election violence'

Cardi B has said she was not planning to vote in the US election this year, but Kamala Harris taking over as the Democratic nominee changed her mind.

The WAP rapper appeared at a Harris campaign rally on Friday, becoming the latest celebrity to endorse the vice president for Tuesday’s election following the likes of Beyonce, Jennifer Lopez, Bruce Springsteen and Eminem.

At the rally in Milwaukee in the swing state of Wisconsin, the singer said she would be voting for the Democratic nominee because she is “not delusional”, while branding Republican contender Donald Trump a “bully”.

Follow latest US election updates

“She’s passionate, compassionate… and most of all she is not delusional,” Cardi B said about the vice president, who took over as the Democratic presidential candidate after US President Joe Biden dropped out.

Cardi B went on to refer to Mr Trump as a “bully” and said about the Republican presidential candidate: “He said he’s gonna protect women whether they like it or not.

“If his definition of protection is not the freedom of choice… then I don’t want it,” she said.

“I’m not giving Donald Trump a second chance.”

Both Mr Trump and Ms Harris have been making the most of their last few days of campaigning, visiting swing states in a bid to get voters on their side in what is set to be a nail-bitingly close race.

The Republican nominee spent his day in Michigan and Wisconsin – calling on voters to “make America great again” by voting him in.

Mr Trump is currently being investigated by Arizona’s top prosecutor over comments he made about Liz Cheney, one of his most vocal Republican critics, when he said on Thursday she would not be a “radical war hawk” if she was in a war herself and had guns “trained on her face”.

“Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face,” Mr Trump said during an event with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

The suburbs of Atlanta could tell us a lot about where the US election is going

In the suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia, there’s a hugely tight race afoot that could tell us a lot about where this election goes.

As I walk through the leafy streets of Cobb County, I see the signs of change everywhere.

This suburb is home to an exodus from Atlanta – one that’s brought more diversity, more affluence and more nuance.

Four years ago, it delivered a rare win for Joe Biden in a southern state that hadn’t backed a Democrat for president in nearly 30 years.

Georgia turned out to be the biggest swing for the party in 2020. Now, Kamala Harris wants to hold on to that momentum, but it won’t be easy.

Some cast suburbia as staid, sleepy and slow.

Keep reading here.

During his rally in Michigan last night, Mr Trump also engaged in an exchange with a heckler who shouted something unintelligible, before he stopped speaking and said: “You want to marry me?”

“She wants to marry me what the hell?”

That was met by a whooping before Mr Trump said: “Let me ask the [former] first lady if that would be ok… it’s OK with me but let me get permission”.

Meanwhile in Washington, the state governor has said he is “activating” members of the National Guard to be on standby in case of violence surrounding the upcoming election.

Governor Jay Inslee said he made the decision after he received information and concerns regarding potential violence.

The order is set to go into effect Monday and last until midnight on Thursday.

Ms Harris is expected to defeat Mr Trump in the state.

Ballot boxes were set on fire there earlier in the week, with hundreds of votes thought to have been damaged.

US

America does exit polls differently to the UK – here’s how and why

Published

12 hours ago

November 2, 2024

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America does exit polls differently to the UK - here's how and why

There are two main differences between election coverage in the UK and the United States.

Last July, at 10pm, Sky News’ exit poll graphic predicted a Labour landslide and a massive defeat for the Conservatives.

Confirmation of this forecast was a long time coming since constituency results are only announced by local returning officers once all votes have been counted.

US election latest: Data reveals potentially decisive trends in two swing states

Americans do things differently and for good reason. Polling stations close much earlier in the east than they do in the west. When voting has hours to go in some states, they’ve already started counting elsewhere.

There is a “wait for it” moment when voting closes in west coast states and the broadcasters can reveal the national exit poll headline, but this won’t tell us the winner.

Instead, it will tell us the types of people who have voted for Harris or Trump and the issues that dominated the outcome.

So far, one-nil to the UK, I think. But, here comes the next bit.

Instead of postponing announcements about votes until every last one has been accounted for, each state then begins releasing figures as and when votes are being counted.

And they do so in such a way where we can compare this time with previously. Not for them declarations in sports halls with dodgy microphones but rather running tallies for precincts (think our local council wards) and counties (ranging from tiny to huge).

It’s these data that US broadcasters such as NBC will use to “call” each state’s vote for president. The television networks are big players in the US election drama.

Over 160 million votes will be cast in the election, more than five times the number cast in our general election last July.

And while the outcome of our election was in no doubt once the broadcasters’ exit poll revealed Labour had won a landslide majority, that will be far from the case in the battle for the presidency.

As in the UK, a consortium of US broadcasters, comprising NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN, form the national election pool.

This commissions the consumer research company, Edison Research, to survey voters in over 600 polling places as people exit their polling station.

The survey also includes telephone interviews with people casting a ballot before 5 November. Once completed, the US exit poll will have obtained responses from over 20,000 voters, a similar number that were collected for the general election.

Two surveys of voters, therefore, but now important differences in their purpose become clear.

The UK version is entirely focussed on predicting the distribution of seats among the competing parties and, thereby, the winner and its likely House of Commons majority. Over recent elections it has proved pretty good at achieving this task.

By contrast, the US version is much less concerned about predicting the winner (and there are very good reasons for taking this approach) and more interested in the campaign issues that mattered to voters, how they viewed the candidates and what factors motivated them to make their choices.

The survey identifies key demographic characteristics for each respondent – men or women, age, ethnic heritage, and educational qualifications.

Combined with questions relating to their choice for president this time around, their usual partisan preference, Democrat, Republican or none of the above, the survey data enables a considered and detailed analysis of what kinds of voters made what kinds of choices and their reasons for doing so.

Broadcast organisations, including Sky News, will use the 2024 exit poll to highlight differences between men and women voters in relation to the abortion issue.

The poll will also show how the economy ranked among voters and whether Donald Trump’s stance on low taxation gained or lost him votes among different social groups. Did Kamala Harris’s association with the Biden administration and the challenges of illegal immigration prove to be a positive or a negative in her bid for the White House?

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All very interesting, but aren’t we all tuning in to see who’s won? While the US exit poll can, in theory, be used for this purpose it is unwise to do so in what is proving to be an extremely close race.

Sky’s tracker of national polls shows the Democrat blue line and the Republican red line moving ever closer together but with Harris currently marginally ahead. But even if she loses the national vote, the polls would still be within the margin of error.

Of course, she could yet win more votes than Trump and still lose the election, as Hillary Clinton discovered when she lost to him in 2016. Winning votes is necessary, but it’s where those votes are and the available number of electoral college votes that matters the most.

Trump beat Clinton because his votes were better distributed than hers. History could be repeated.

Releasing precinct-level voting numbers as counting progresses is essential to US election coverage. The national election pool employs over a thousand researchers to collect votes from each of the 50 states.

Additionally, NBC News will augment these figures with more detailed analysis prior to making its call for each state and the electoral college votes for Harris or Trump. The first to reach 270 college votes wins.

Professor John Lapinsky of Pennsylvania University leads NBC’s decision desk.

Although the broadcasters have pooled resources to bring us the exit poll, each will independently analyse the actual voting figures as they become available.

Lapinsky and his team on behalf of NBC will call the state for either Harris or Trump only when they are satisfied that the leading candidate’s vote is sufficiently large that he or she cannot be overtaken.

This a big moment for each broadcaster, especially when the race is likely to be close and where social media may be playing a significant role in stoking accusations and counter-accusations of a fraudulent election.

With so much at stake, these decisions will take time and patience.

Our July election was done and dusted in time for the breakfast bulletins. It could be days of counting, recounting and legal appeals before we know the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

US

US election: The elderly couple whose marriage has been tested by Trump

Published

1 day ago

November 1, 2024

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US election: The elderly couple whose marriage has been tested by Trump

When they made America truly great its backbone was forged in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.

The steel for 80% of Manhattan’s skyscrapers, many of the US Navy’s battleships, and even the entire San Francisco Golden Gate Bridge, all came from its blast furnaces in the hills north of Philadelphia.

Its mammoth steel plants stretched for almost five miles.

They lie empty and unused, now a huge open-air museum for guided tours led by former plant workers like Don Young.

US election latest: ‘We’re gonna have to lock them up,’ Trump says after suing CBS for $10bn

The 87-year-old has been married to Barbara for 20 years, but their marriage has been tested in recent months, as have many others in the most divisive presidential election in living memory.

Both Republicans, she is for Donald Trump, he is emphatically not.

Mr Trump, I pointed out, claimed he could make America great again. Did he believe him?

“No, I do not believe him. My wife does,” he said. “I’ve seen the rise of dictators in history.

“As much as I am a studier of the history of industry, I’m also a studier of the history of politics and world politics. And, you know, Mr Trump’s campaign literally, literally mirrors that of Adolf Hitler.”

His wife sees Mr Trump completely differently: “I absolutely do not agree with that. And I’m sorry to hear my husband say this. And I actually believe we have seen what President Trump can do and how our country was when he was in office.”

Trump ‘is the future for America’, Ms Young says

Their town has recovered from the collapse of Bethlehem Steel. But it’s the state of America that worries Ms Young now.

And it is Mr Trump who can save it, she said.

“He is the future for America,” she said. “I don’t want to see people coming over our border. We’ve had women murdered and raped by illegal immigrants. Who wants their children dead as a result of fentanyl, which comes over the border?”

Trump is ‘going to run America into the ground’

Her husband’s view is diametrically opposed.

“I think he’s going to run America into the ground because he does not observe any of the Democratic norms that his predecessors have,” he said.

“He didn’t observe them when he was in office. And so that’s just a window on what will happen in this coming term.”

Pennsylvania will likely determine presidential election result

Their marriage mirrors the state of play in the place they live in.

Pennsylvania is on a knife edge, say the polls, split right down the middle and the outcome here will likely determine the result on election day in this most important of swing states.

They can agree on one thing. They cannot wait for this election to be over.

Mr Young said their marriage can survive a Trump victory. Ms Young thinks so too.

The closest, nastiest, most divisive presidential election in living memory will be over soon. The bitterness and division that has plagued it less so in this deeply polarised country.