It’s difficult not to see parallels between chaos of US Republican party and UK Conservatives | Adam Boulton
Nations and political systems differ greatly but it is difficult not to see parallels between what is happening now in the US Republican party and the recent history of the UK Conservative party.
There is a brutal tussle under way over the direction which should be taken by Anglophone conservatism, as embodied a generation past by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
Last year, the turmoil in Britain’s ruling party resulted in three prime ministers in a matter of months, as Tory MPs failed to agree on leaders capable of governing the nation reliably.
The Republican party actually “won” the mid-term elections for the lower House of Congress, taking control from the Democrats.
But as the 118th Congress met for the first time this week, the new majority party failed to agree on their first order of business, who should be their leader, for the first time since 1923, 100 years ago.
Although they share the same title, and preside over proceedings in their house, the US Speaker does not have the same role as the Speaker in the House of Commons.
Like his predecessors, Sir Lindsay Hoyle is expected to be neutral and has abandoned his ties to Labour. By convention the UK Speaker is effectively an incumbent, irrespective of general elections when he or she stands without opposition from the main political parties.
The Speaker of the House of Representatives is an entirely partisan figure. In practice they are the leader of the majority party, which makes them the equivalent of prime minister in UK terms.
In the US Constitution the Speaker is second in the line of succession to the Presidency, after the vice president. (Confusingly the Veep is also the presiding officer in the upper house, with the casting vote in the US Senate.)
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US Midterms: What’s at stake?
The likes of Speakers Tip O’Neill, Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan and Nancy Pelosi have made much of their role as major national political figures.
When there is no Speaker in place, the House of Representatives is what one frustrated congressman this week called “a useless entity”. Its members cannot be sworn in, so they cannot legislate or hold the executive to account. They don’t even have security clearance.
When, as now, the Presidency and the Senate are controlled by the other party, the Speaker of the House is more important than ever as the equivalent to the Leader of the Opposition.
When Kevin McCarthy, an eight-term congressman from California, led his party to victory over the Democrats in the mid-terms by 222 seats to 212, the Republicans might have been expected to stick with his leadership and to install him in the top job.
But no. In 11 painful roll call votes McCarthy failed to get the required overall majority of representatives because 20 members of his own Republican party resolutely refused to back him, including five US Representatives elected for the first time.
Kevin McCarthy
Meanwhile the Democrats settled immediately and unanimously on Hakeem Jeffries of New York as their minority leader, replacing Pelosi who has retired. Jeffries is the first African-American to lead a party in the US Congress.
The overwhelming majority of House Republicans – 201 out of 222 – back McCarthy but without most of the 20 holdouts they did not have enough votes to put him over the top on 218.
Nineteen of those blocking McCarthy belong to the right-wing Freedom Caucus. Their motivation is best summed up by the controversial congressman from Florida, Mike Gaetz, who declared “If you want to drain the swamp, you cannot put the biggest alligator in charge”.
“The swamp” is the fetid American version of what British populists like to write-off as the “Westminster bubble”.
Gaetz’s extremist language carries echoes of Jacob Rees-Mogg’s pronouncement that Rishi Sunak’s policies are “socialist”.
McCarthy is not a centrist member of the establishment. He courted and promoted candidates belonging to the Tea Party. He hesitated briefly after the attack on the Capitol on 6 January 2021, but within days voted against impeachment and flew to Mar-a-Lago to seek Donald Trump’s endorsement. McCarthy embraced the “big lie” that Trump won in 2020, and voted to challenge the official electors in key states.
McCarthy embraced the ‘big lie’ that Trump won in 2020, and voted to challenge the official electors in key states
If he becomes speaker, McCarthy says his first priority will be to cancel the hiring of 87,000 tax inspectors. He will also block the crucial bipartisan budget measures already agreed in the Senate.
He has promised to change the rules to make it easier to sack a speaker (a bit like the 1922 Committee and votes of no confidence). This eventually won “MY Martin” the backing of Trump on his own Truth Social platform: “He will do a good job and maybe even a GREAT JOB”.
Politically he is not much different from those refusing to back him but they still don’t trust him. Instead they deliberately plunged US politics into chaos, at one stage proposing an alternative candidate, Jim Jordan, who had himself nominated McCarthy.
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The midterms were a referendum on the extreme, right-wing politics of the ‘Make America Great Again’
Partisan Democrats relished their opponents’ plight and tweeted out images of the popcorn they were munching as the drama unfolded.
A critical columnist in The New York Times found it “grimly amusing to see that the party of insurrection can’t even manage the orderly transfer of power to itself”.
But the progressive newspaper took a more serious tone assessing the consequences of the refusenik’s behaviour: “They simply will not relent and join their colleagues even if it is for the greater good of their party, and perhaps the nation. They consider themselves conservative purists who cannot be placated unless all their demands are met – and maybe not even then. Their agenda is mostly to defund, disrupt and dismantle government, not to participate in it.”
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Chaos in US House speaker vote
The UK’s Conservatives have not disappeared down this rabbit hole. It is difficult to imagine Tory MPs celebrating the removal of metal detector arches, as symbols of oppression rather than security, as some Republicans did this week. Nor do they celebrate the right to bear arms.
Yet such groups as the European Research Group have been willing to use obstructionism and their position as de facto swing voters to force the bulk of their party in a more right-wing direction in policy and personnel matters.
They too have abandoned party loyalty in favour of ideology, allegedly supported by unelected and energised party activists.
On both sides of the Atlantic they have endorsed purges of those they disagree with in what was a “broad church” type of party. Their energy is focussed on fighting within their own party for control. Provided their party can eke out election wins, they disregard those who don’t vote for it.
Whether they call it the swamp or the bubble their suspicion of government and its agencies comes with demands for a smaller state, welfare cutbacks, scepticism about climate change measures, less regulation of business, and curtailed civil rights.
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The essential difference is that a significant minority of Republican representatives think that the best way to achieve their goals is to disrupt and overturn the system while the overwhelming majority of Conservative MPs still want to work within it.
Many Tory MPs disagree profoundly with the right’s atavism but, for self-preservation, they look over their shoulders anxiously before speaking up for One Nation values.
So far those most effective in forcing the Conservatives in a rightward direction have been outsiders. Significantly, in praising the Brexit negotiator Lord Frost this week, Nigel Farage bellowed “now is the time for all good men to leave the Conservative Party”. Farage’s sidekick Richard Tice relaunched their Reform Party.
Last year, the British public suffered the consequences of the unquiet soul of the right. This year the Republicans are already offering another lesson in real time.
It’s a year since the US put Donald Trump back in the White House and I’ve spent this anniversary week in Florida and in Pennsylvania – two worlds in one country where I found two such contrasting snapshots of Trump’s America.
There are many ways to reflect on the successes and failures of the past year. Different issues matter to different people. But the thing which matters to all Americans is money.
The cost of living was a key factor in Donald Trump’s victory. He promised to make the country more affordable again. So: how’s he done?
On Wednesday, exactly a year since Americans went to the polls, the president was in Miami. He had picked this city and a particular crowd for his anniversary speech.
I was in the audience at the America Business Forum as he told wealthy entrepreneurs and investors how great life is now.
“One year ago we were a dead country, now we’re considered the hottest country in the world.” he told them to cheers. “Record high, record high, record high…”
The vibe was glitzy and wealthy. These days, these are his voters; his crowd.
“After just one year since that glorious election, I’m thrilled to say that America is back, America is back bigger, better, stronger than ever.” he said.
“We’ve done really well. I think it’s the best nine months, they say, of any president. And I really believe that if we can have a few more nine months like this, you’d be very happy. You’d be very satisfied.”
There was little question here that people are happy.
Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy
“Trump’s been a good thing?” I asked one attendee, Liz Ciborowski.
“Yes. He has really pushed for a lot of issues that are really important for our economy,” she said.
“I’m an investor,” said another, Andrea.
“I’m a happy girl. I’m doing good,” she said with a laugh.
Andrea says she’s happy with how the economy is faring
A year on from his historic victory, the president was, notably, not with the grassroots folk in the places that propelled him back to the White House.
He had chosen to be among business leaders in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.
But there was just one hint in his speech which seemed to acknowledge the reality that should be a concern for him.
“We have the greatest economy right now,” he said, adding: “A lot of people don’t see that.”
That is the crux of it: many people beyond the fortunate here don’t feel the “greatest economy” he talks about. And many of those people are in the places that delivered Trump his victory.
That’s the untold story of the past year.
A thousand miles to the north of Miami is another America – another world.
Steelton, Pennsylvania sits in one of Donald Trump’s heartlands. But it is not feeling the beat of his greatest economy. Not at all.
At the local steel union, I was invited to attend a meeting of a group of steel workers. It was an intimate glimpse into a hard, life-changing moment for the men.
The steel plant is shutting down and they were listening to their union representative explaining what happens next.
David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks
The conversation was punctuated with all the words no one wants to hear: laid off, severance, redundancy.
“For over 100 years, my family has been here working. And I was planning on possibly one day having my son join me, but I don’t know if that’s a possibility now,” former employee David Myers tells me.
“And…” he pauses. “Sorry I’m getting a little emotional about it. We’ve been supplying America with railroad tracks for over a century and a half, and it feels weird for it to be coming to an end.”
Cleveland Cliffs Steelton plant is closing because of weakening demand, according to its owners. Their stock price has since surged. Good news for the Miami crowd, probably. It is the irony between the two Americas.
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Steelton in Pennsylvania
Down at the shuttered plant, it’s empty, eerie and depressing. It is certainly not the image or the vision that Donald Trump imagined for his America.
Pennsylvania, remember, was key to propelling Trump back to the White House. In this swing state, they swung to his promises – factories reopened and life more affordable.
Up the road, conversations outside the town’s government-subsidised homes frame the challenges here so starkly.
“How much help does the community need?” I asked a man running the local food bank.
Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser
“As much as they can get. I mean, help is a four-letter word but it has a big meaning. So help!” community organiser Elder Melvin Watts said.
I asked if he thought things were worse than a year ago.
“Yes sir. I believe they needed it then and they need it that much more now. You know it’s not hard to figure that out. The cost of living is high.”
Nearby, I met a woman called Sandra.
Sandra says it’s getting harder to make ends meet
“It’s been harder, and I’m a hard-working woman.” she told me. “I don’t get no food stamps, I don’t get none of that. You’ve got to take care of them bills, eat a little bit or don’t have the lights on. Then you have people like Mr Melvin, he’s been out here for years, serving the community.”
Inside Mr Melvin’s food bank, a moment then unfolded that cut to the heart of the need here.
A woman called Geraldine Santiago arrived, distressed, emotional and then overwhelmed by the boxes of food available to her.
“We’ll help you…” Mr Melvin said as she sobbed.
Geraldine’s welfare has been affected by the shutdown
Geraldine is one of 40 million Americans now not receiving the full nutritional assistance programme, known as SNAP, and usually provided by the federal government.
SNAP benefits have stopped because the government remains shut down amid political deadlock.
I watched Geraldine’s rollercoaster emotions spilling out – from desperation to gratitude at this moment of respite. She left with a car boot full of food.
A year on from his victory, Donald Trump continues to frame himself as the “America First” president and now with an economy transformed. But parts of America feel far, far away.
Nancy Pelosi, the first woman in the Speaker’s office, has announced her retirement from American politics after a nearly 40-year career.
The 85-year-old, who has represented San Francisco since 1987, revealed her decision two days after Californian voters overwhelmingly approved “Proposition 50”, a state redistricting effort aimed at flipping five House seats to Democrats in the midterm elections next year.
“I will not be seeking re-election to Congress,” Pelosi said in a video address to voters.
“With a grateful heart, I look forward to my final year of service as your proud representative.
“My message to the city I love is this: San Francisco, know your power,” she said. “We have made history. We have made progress. We have always led the way.”
“And now we must continue to do so by remaining full participants in our democracy and fighting for the American ideals we hold dear.”
Nancy Pelosi at the Democratic National Convention in 2024. Pic: Reuters
Mrs Pelosi served as the 52nd Speaker of the House of Representatives from 2007 to 2011, and again from 2019 to 2023, and was the first woman elected to the role.
She was also the first woman to lead a major political party in either chamber of Congress, heading the House Democrats from 2003 to 2023.
During her second tenure as Speaker, the House twice impeached Donald Trump – in December 2019, and January 2021 – though the Senate acquitted him both times.
And in February 2020, during President Trump’s State of the Union address, she famously tore up her official copy of it, arguing “it was such a dirty speech”.
An architect of the Affordable Care Act, Mrs Pelosi has also been credited with quietly persuading Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race.
Now her political contemporaries have paid tribute.
Former President Joe Biden said America “will always be grateful” to her.
He posted on X: “I often said Nancy Pelosi was the best Speaker of the House in American history – it’s why I awarded her the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
“When I was President, we worked together to grow our economy, create millions of jobs, and make historic investments in our nation’s future.”
California’s Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom, said she “inspired generations” and “set the standard for what public service should be”.
While party colleague, Senator Adam Schiff, who also represents California, called her “the greatest Speaker in American history” and highlighted her “tenacity, intellect, strategic acumen and fierce advocacy”.
And Representative Don Beyer of Virginia, another Democrat, said she was “a major figure in American history”, a “barrier breaker”, and “one of our most brilliant and accomplished leaders”.
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“Why did you refuse the National Guard on January 6?”
First elected in 1987, she came into politics later in life, and has long resisted calls to step aside, turning questions about her future into spirited rebuttals.
But she’s faced new challenges in recent years and her decision to step down is not fully unexpected.
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Last year she fractured her hip when she fell during a European trip, and was rushed to a military hospital for surgery.
And in 2022, her husband Paul Pelosi was gravely injured by a home intruder who beat him over the head with a hammer and demanded to know “Where is Nancy?”
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Nonetheless, she’s maintained a rigorous political schedule of public events and party fundraisers.
Now eyes will turn to the question of her successor, both at home in San Francisco, and in the US Congress where she plays a behind-the-scenes leadership role.
She’s already faced a potential primary challenge from Saikat Chakrabarti, a left-wing newcomer who played a part in the rise of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – another rising star in the progressive firmament.
Don’t be led by what appears to be obvious.
The Mamdani victory is historic for him, a dreamy American journey for an immigrant rising to the top, and, along with the governor victories in New Jersey and Virginia, it undoubtedly represents a gear shift for the Democrats who have been lost in a Trumpian vortex since Joe Biden’s disastrous presidential debate 18 months ago.
All of this is true. And in that sense, it was of course a very good night for the Democratic Party. Winning is clearly better than losing.
But what if Mamdani is actually a poison chalice for the Democrats? They are drinking this socialist’s champagne now because they finally have some momentum.
But he isn’t a champagne socialist. He is a purist socialist; proudly one.
Explainer: Who is Zohran Mamdani?
Pic: AP
With his skilful communication skills and his apparent authenticity, he has energised New York City. And no wonder. The alternative was the flawed, compromised Andrew Cuomo. Mamdani offered hope for a deeply liberal city that’s lost in Trump World.
Trump endorsed Cuomo not because he agrees with Mamdani’s own tagline: “I am Trump’s worst nightmare…”
Trump endorsed Cuomo because he knew that it would probably increase Mamdani’s share of the vote – and it did.
Why would Trump do this? Maybe because he thinks Mamdani is the perfect foil for him.
Trump’s endorsement of Andrew Cuomo wasn’t all it seemed on the surface. Pic: AP
What Trump can get out of apparent defeat
Mamdani’s victory gives Trump and his allies two things.
First, they can sit back and watch the Democrats squabble about whether Mamdani’s leftward Democratic socialism is the future of their party. And be in no doubt, they will.
Second, they can warn centrists and right-leaning folk: ‘Look, the Democrats really are socialists…’. The president continues to frame him as a “communist”.
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And so it begins, the Trump/Mamdani rivalry…
The Democrats may choose the Mamdani lane and stick with it, especially if he is successful in New York. But the Big Apple is not remotely representative of America.
Beyond New York City, Mamdani is, history would suggest, off the spectrum when it comes to electable Democratic Party candidates – America remains a conservative society; political spectrums here naturally tack right.
Team Trump knows all this, so they’ll relish the prospect of the Democratic Party machine (which has form in picking the wrong candidate) being lured by Mamdani-mania.
Cost of living a key issue
Beyond that, there is a vital takeaway for Trump from this mini and not wholly representative referendum on his presidency so far.
Many ordinary Americans are still hurting economically, big time.
The Democrats won in New York, New Jersey and Virginia because their candidates all focused on kitchen table issues.
The president clearly recognises this, to an extent. “Day by day, we’re going to make America affordable again,” he said after the Mamdani victory.
But he was speaking not to the people who are feeling the squeeze. Instead, he chose to mark a year since he was elected with a speech to a wealthy business crowd in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.
Trump perhaps realises he’s failing on one key promise. Pic: AP
JD Vance’s telling reaction
Maybe the most telling thing to come out of the past 24 hours in American politics was from the vice president.
In a social media post, JD Vance first warned followers not to overreact to the results.
He then went on to offer his own notable interpretation of the Democratic Party victories.
“We need to focus on the home front.” he wrote. “The president has done a lot that has already paid off in lower interest rates and lower inflation, but we inherited a disaster from Joe Biden and Rome wasn’t built in a day.
“We’re going to keep on working to make a decent life affordable in this country, and that’s the metric by which we’ll ultimately be judged in 2026 and beyond.”
Read more: Mamdani can’t expect easy wins
Vice President JD Vance
My interpretation of his interpretation?
Two points: first, that Vance thinks that Trump needs to get back to his base. Ten months of presidential jet-setting and global-conflict-solving may have been necessary, but it won’t spell victory in the midterms next year or beyond.
The second point – Vance is so clearly in it for the long game. The “beyond” he talks about has him at its centre.
I’m not sure Vance would have chosen a Miami arena full of business leaders to mark a year since the election. The business and investment community is happy and wealthy.
I think Vance would have been with the other America, where people are feeling the squeeze still.
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Trump continues to talk about the economy being “Biden’s economy”. Vance seems to be hinting at the inevitable – that at some point they need to own it and to fix it. They need to make people feel better off.
Vance wants to run and to win in 2028, and that fight begins now.
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