Train strikes: Why the numbers don’t add up to a rail deal

Published

3 years ago

January 6, 2023

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Rail minister Huw Merriman will meet union leaders including Mick Lynch of the RMT on Monday after three weeks of unseasonal disruption left the two sides apparently as far apart as ever.

While both say they are ready to talk, unions remain committed to further strikes if required and the government is legislating to limit industrial action, an inauspicious background to the first direct talks between ministers and bosses since November.

Ultimately, progress will depend on concessions on both sides, but at its heart are financial considerations that have changed radically in the three years since COVID-19.

These changes, driven by necessity and government strategy, have fundamentally altered the incentives for the constituent parts of the fiendishly complex rail network to do a deal.

Understanding those changes may help explain why a dispute that began in high summer seems no closer to resolution in the depths of the following winter.

The pandemic has dramatically and perhaps permanently changed the financial model. In 2019-20, the last full year before COVID struck, there were 1.74 billion passenger journeys generating £10.4bn in fares. Government subsidy amounted to £6.5bn.

The following year COVID lockdowns and working from home saw the position flip, with a meagre 388 million passenger journeys producing just £1.8bn in fares, and government support to keep the wheels turning rising to £16.5bn.

Even in the year to March 2022, with the pandemic in abeyance and recovery under way, there were fewer than a billion journeys, fares revenue was still below £6bn, and the government was putting in £13.3bn, more than double the pre-COVID cost to taxpayers.

So when Network Rail says the railways no longer have the revenue to meet inflation-matching wage demands they are at least half right.

Passenger fares revenue has plummeted.

Yet the most recent pay offers, of 5% plus 4% over two years from Network Rail, and 4% plus 4% from the train operators, are below the 5.9% fare rise that will apply from March.

But there is another equally important change underlying this dispute; where that revenue goes.

Revenue risk from train operators removed

In response to the pandemic the government tore up franchise agreements with privately owned train operators and replaced them with service contracts, removing at a stroke the revenue risk from train operators.

Instead of fares going to train operators who paid guaranteed revenue to the government, fares now go directly to the Department for Transport, which pays the operator to run services.

Crucially though, the train operators still get paid when workers are on strike, receiving compensation for lost revenue of £20m-£25m a day. The RMT claims that adds up to £340m paid by the government to private companies since the dispute began.

The Department of Transport would not provide a figure for total compensation paid but did say: “We do not tend to penalise the train operators for failing to run a full service on a strike day given it’s not the train operators who have opted to strike.”

A changed calculation for Network Rail

While the new contracts have reduced the incentive for train companies to do a deal by removing their risk, the restructuring has also changed the calculation for Network Rail, involved in its own dispute with the RMT.

Under the old franchise system, if trains could not run because Network Rail signalling and station staff were on strike, it compensated the operators for lost fares.

That meant that for train operators, Network Rail and the unions there was a basic calculation when considering a pay deal.

If the pay demand from workers was cheaper in the long run than the lost revenue or compensation cost of strike action, a deal could, and usually would, be done.

That basic calculation has helped rail workers remain one of the few public sector groups whose pay has kept track with inflation since 2010. With revenues collapsing since COVID that balance of incentives has changed.

Cost of industrial action

Taxpayers are now the ones bearing the overwhelming cost of industrial action, not the employers, meaning it is ministers and the Treasury whose appetite for financial pain is being tested.

On the union’s side it is still workers who pay for strike action in lost pay and their resolve will be weighing on the minds of bosses and ministers this weekend.

Rail workers are paid on four-week shift cycles and each of the six waves of strike action so far has taken place in a separate cycle limiting the loss of wages from a single wage slip.

The cost is adding up for RMT members even with support from strike funds that ease the blow. They have lost up to 19 days pay since the first strikes in June, and at least four days pay in each of December and January, a significant hit for anyone.

As Mick Lynch considers his next move he will be weighing up how much more his members can bear. They have shown remarkable solidarity since the dispute began but in a cost of living squeeze it may not be infinite.

Barriers to a deal

There are many issues that could prevent a deal, not least the new demands to change certain working practices unions believe have been deliberately introduced to derail progress.

The planned restructuring of the entire network under a new body ‘Great British Railways’ is also muddying the waters.

Political support for the Boris Johnson-Grant Shapps reform has fluctuated with the political chaos in Downing Street, leaving the industry uncertain if and when permanent change will come, and the railways effectively being run and paid for by ministers who claim to oppose nationalisation.

In the short term though this dispute may come down to who has the higher threshold for the financial pain: the Treasury paying hundreds of millions in compensation, or rail workers sacrificing their pay.

Business

Elon Musk’s $1trn pay package approved by Tesla

Published

6 hours ago

November 7, 2025

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Elon Musk's trn pay package approved by Tesla

Elon Musk could be on track for a $1trn (£761bn) pay package – if Tesla meets a series of extremely ambitious targets over the next 10 years.

The world’s richest man has the potential to become a trillionaire after the controversial plans were approved by 75% of the company’s shareholders.

It would be the largest corporate pay package in history.

However, it won’t be easy. As part of the agreement, Musk will need to deliver 20 million Tesla vehicles over the next decade – more than double the number churned out over the past 12 years.

He will be tasked with dramatically increasing the company’s valuation and operating profits.

Another requirement is for Tesla to roll out one million AI-powered robots – despite the fact it hasn’t released a single one so far.

Musk will also need to come up with a succession plan on who will replace him as the chief executive of Tesla.

As each step is successfully completed, he will receive more company shares and his ownership stake will rise – potentially from 13% now to almost 29%.

And even if Musk falls short of some of these targets, he could end up earning a lot of money.

Figures from Forbes magazine suggest the 54-year-old already has a net worth of $493bn (£375bn) – and while that means he has more money than anyone else on the planet, he isn’t the richest person in history… yet.

That title belongs to John D Rockefeller, the railroad titan who had a wealth of $630bn (£480bn) back in 1913 – when adjusted for inflation.

Why?

Now is the moment Tesla wants to innovate, develop into robotics, self-driving and embrace the growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

It’s seeking a visionary leader to spearhead this move. And a lot of Tesla’s market value is tied up in this ambition.

Tesla’s board of directors, who oversee the management of the business, are adamant that only Musk can make the lofty ambitions a reality.

Some believe there’s no one else like Musk.

More shares in the company are “critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history”, said financial services firm Wedbush.

“We believe this was the smart move by the board to lay out these incentives/pay package at this key time as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk … and with the AI revolution, this is a crucial time for Tesla ahead with autonomous and robotics front and centre.”

Opposition

Not everyone is in favour of the pay package.

Major investor advice firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) warned the 10-year pay agreement reduces the board’s ability “to meaningfully adjust future pay levels in the event of unforeseen events or changes in either the performance or strategic focus of the company over the next decade”.

In a note, ISS said: “The high value of each tranche could also potentially undermine Musk’s desire to achieve all goals and create significant value for shareholders”, and that the goals “lack precision”.

Musk has described ISS and another major adviser, Glass Lewis, as “corporate terrorists”.

There was speculation he would walk away from the business if the package was not agreed on.

Business

ITV in ‘preliminary’ talks over £1.6bn sale of media and entertainment arm to Sky

Published

7 hours ago

November 7, 2025

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ITV has revealed talks with Sky, the owner of Sky News, over the possible sale of its media and entertainment (M&E) division in a deal worth £1.6bn.

Sky News understands the approach centres on the potential creation of a UK-focused streaming giant.

The division takes in ITV’s current broadcast operations and channels, which are largely dependent on advertising revenue.

The talks do not include the company’s studios arm, which makes shows such as I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here!

Money latest: Mortgage price war predicted

“There can be no certainty as to the terms upon which any potential sale may be agreed or whether any transaction will take place”, a statement by ITV to the London Stock Exchange said.

“A further announcement will be made in due course if appropriate”, it concluded.

ITV shares jumped by 15% in early trading in response to the statement.

Sky, which is wholly owned by the US media and entertainment firm Comcast, declined to comment.

ITV released its statement after news of the discussions were first revealed by Bloomberg News.

Just hours earlier, the company’s latest financial results showed it was moving to save millions of pounds due to an advertising slowdown.

ITV reported delays to some programmes over the coming months to save costs as a result.

It predicted a 9% decline in ad revenues across 2025, with the most recent trends being blamed on advertisers pulling back on spending in anticipation of the chancellor’s budget later this month.

It is understood that a possible deal between Sky and ITV would seek to create a larger, more attractive proposition for advertisers in the UK streaming sphere through a focus on UK audiences.

ITV has long been the subject of takeover speculation.

The latest came from the Reuters news agency earlier this year when it reported early-stage talks with Abu Dhabi-backed group RedBird IMI about a possible merger of their respective production businesses.

French media group Banijay was also reported to have held discussions about a possible offer for ITV’s studio business or a full takeover.

Business

Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package approved by Tesla

Published

15 hours ago

November 7, 2025

admin

Elon Musk could be on track for a $1trn (£761bn) pay package – if Tesla meets a series of extremely ambitious targets over the next 10 years.

The world’s richest man has the potential to become a trillionaire after the controversial plans were approved by shareholders.

However, it won’t be easy. As part of the agreement, Musk will need to deliver 20 million Tesla vehicles over the next decade – more than double the number churned out over the past 12 years.

He will be tasked with dramatically increasing the company’s valuation and operating profits.

Another requirement is for Tesla to roll out one million AI-powered robots – despite the fact it hasn’t released a single one so far.

Musk will also need to come up with a succession plan on who will replace him as the chief executive of Tesla.

As each step is successfully completed, he will receive more company shares and his ownership stake will rise – potentially from 13% now to almost 29%.

And even if Musk falls short of some of these targets, he could end up earning a lot of money.

That title belongs to John D. Rockefeller, the railroad titan who had wealth of $630bn (£480bn) back in 1913 – when adjusted for inflation.

Why?

Now is the moment Tesla wants to innovate, develop into robotics, self-driving and embrace the growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

It’s seeking a visionary leader to spearhead this move. And a lot of Tesla’s market value is tied up in this ambition.

Tesla’s board of directors, who oversee the management of the business, are adamant that only Musk can make the lofty ambitions a reality.

Some believe there’s no one else like Musk.

More shares in the company are “critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history”, said financial services firm Wedbush.

“Getting Musk’s pay package approved will be a big step towards advancing Tesla’s future goals,” Wedbush analysts wrote.

Opposition

Not everyone is in favour of the pay package.

Mr Musk has described ISS and another major adviser, Glass Lewis, as “corporate terrorists”.

There was speculation he would walk away from the business if the package was not agreed on.