Connect with us

Published

on

Rail minister Huw Merriman will meet union leaders including Mick Lynch of the RMT on Monday after three weeks of unseasonal disruption left the two sides apparently as far apart as ever.

While both say they are ready to talk, unions remain committed to further strikes if required and the government is legislating to limit industrial action, an inauspicious background to the first direct talks between ministers and bosses since November.

Ultimately, progress will depend on concessions on both sides, but at its heart are financial considerations that have changed radically in the three years since COVID-19.

These changes, driven by necessity and government strategy, have fundamentally altered the incentives for the constituent parts of the fiendishly complex rail network to do a deal.

Understanding those changes may help explain why a dispute that began in high summer seems no closer to resolution in the depths of the following winter.

The pandemic has dramatically and perhaps permanently changed the financial model. In 2019-20, the last full year before COVID struck, there were 1.74 billion passenger journeys generating £10.4bn in fares. Government subsidy amounted to £6.5bn.

The following year COVID lockdowns and working from home saw the position flip, with a meagre 388 million passenger journeys producing just £1.8bn in fares, and government support to keep the wheels turning rising to £16.5bn.

More on Rail Strikes

Even in the year to March 2022, with the pandemic in abeyance and recovery under way, there were fewer than a billion journeys, fares revenue was still below £6bn, and the government was putting in £13.3bn, more than double the pre-COVID cost to taxpayers.

So when Network Rail says the railways no longer have the revenue to meet inflation-matching wage demands they are at least half right.

Passenger fares revenue has plummeted.

Yet the most recent pay offers, of 5% plus 4% over two years from Network Rail, and 4% plus 4% from the train operators, are below the 5.9% fare rise that will apply from March.

But there is another equally important change underlying this dispute; where that revenue goes.

Revenue risk from train operators removed

In response to the pandemic the government tore up franchise agreements with privately owned train operators and replaced them with service contracts, removing at a stroke the revenue risk from train operators.

Instead of fares going to train operators who paid guaranteed revenue to the government, fares now go directly to the Department for Transport, which pays the operator to run services.

Crucially though, the train operators still get paid when workers are on strike, receiving compensation for lost revenue of £20m-£25m a day. The RMT claims that adds up to £340m paid by the government to private companies since the dispute began.

The Department of Transport would not provide a figure for total compensation paid but did say: “We do not tend to penalise the train operators for failing to run a full service on a strike day given it’s not the train operators who have opted to strike.”

Read more:
Find out which areas area affected by the fresh strikes
Union urges Rishi Sunak to ‘step up to the plate’

A changed calculation for Network Rail

While the new contracts have reduced the incentive for train companies to do a deal by removing their risk, the restructuring has also changed the calculation for Network Rail, involved in its own dispute with the RMT.

Under the old franchise system, if trains could not run because Network Rail signalling and station staff were on strike, it compensated the operators for lost fares.

That meant that for train operators, Network Rail and the unions there was a basic calculation when considering a pay deal.

If the pay demand from workers was cheaper in the long run than the lost revenue or compensation cost of strike action, a deal could, and usually would, be done.

That basic calculation has helped rail workers remain one of the few public sector groups whose pay has kept track with inflation since 2010. With revenues collapsing since COVID that balance of incentives has changed.

Cost of industrial action

Taxpayers are now the ones bearing the overwhelming cost of industrial action, not the employers, meaning it is ministers and the Treasury whose appetite for financial pain is being tested.

On the union’s side it is still workers who pay for strike action in lost pay and their resolve will be weighing on the minds of bosses and ministers this weekend.

Rail workers are paid on four-week shift cycles and each of the six waves of strike action so far has taken place in a separate cycle limiting the loss of wages from a single wage slip.

The cost is adding up for RMT members even with support from strike funds that ease the blow. They have lost up to 19 days pay since the first strikes in June, and at least four days pay in each of December and January, a significant hit for anyone.

As Mick Lynch considers his next move he will be weighing up how much more his members can bear. They have shown remarkable solidarity since the dispute began but in a cost of living squeeze it may not be infinite.

Barriers to a deal

There are many issues that could prevent a deal, not least the new demands to change certain working practices unions believe have been deliberately introduced to derail progress.

The planned restructuring of the entire network under a new body ‘Great British Railways’ is also muddying the waters.

Political support for the Boris Johnson-Grant Shapps reform has fluctuated with the political chaos in Downing Street, leaving the industry uncertain if and when permanent change will come, and the railways effectively being run and paid for by ministers who claim to oppose nationalisation.

In the short term though this dispute may come down to who has the higher threshold for the financial pain: the Treasury paying hundreds of millions in compensation, or rail workers sacrificing their pay.

Continue Reading

Business

UK’s biggest housebuilders to pay record sum after CMA investigation into sensitive information-sharing

Published

on

By

UK's biggest housebuilders to pay record sum after CMA investigation into sensitive information-sharing

The UK’s biggest housebuilders are set to pay a record sum to fund affordable housing after the competition regulator investigated sensitive information sharing among the firms.

A total of £100m, paid for by seven companies, will go to affordable housing programmes across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, following a Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) investigation.

The inquiry was launched last year due to concerns that the companies were sharing commercially sensitive information, which could influence the prices of new homes.

There was concern that the housebuilders – Barratt Redrow, Bellway, Berkeley Group, Bloor Homes, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Vistry – exchanged details about property sales, including pricing, viewing numbers and buyer incentives such as upgraded kitchens or stamp duty contributions.

Money blog: Another supermarket trials self-checkout ‘VAR’

It’s resulted in an agreement to make the combined £100m payment – the largest secured via a commitment from companies under CMA investigation. Hundreds of new homes could be funded with the money, the CMA said, helping low-income households, first-time buyers and vulnerable people.

The businesses have voluntarily agreed to pay the sum and have not acknowledged wrongdoing. No finding of rule-breaking or illegality has been made.

More on Cma

What next?

They have also offered to sign up to legally binding commitments to prevent anticompetitive behaviour.

Among the proposals advanced by the companies was an agreement not to share some information, like prices houses were sold for, with other housebuilders, except in limited circumstances, and to work with the Home Builders Federation and Homes for Scotland to develop industry-wide guidance on information sharing.

Read more:
UK to miss deadline to agree steel and aluminium tariffs
M&S boss reveals new details about cyber attack on company

The CMA has said it will consult on the changes.

If accepted, the commitments will become legally binding, and the CMA will not need to decide whether the housebuilders broke competition law.

Initially, eight companies were under investigation, but following a merger of Barratt Homes and Redrow, the number became seven.

“Housing is a critical sector for the UK economy and housing costs are a substantial part of people’s monthly spend, so it’s essential that competition works well. This keeps prices as low as possible and increases choice,” the CMA chief executive, Sarah Cardell, said.

Continue Reading

Business

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

Published

on

By

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives after being accused of wrongdoing based on evidence from the Horizon IT system that the Post Office and developers Fujitsu knew could be false, the public inquiry has found.

A further 59 people told the inquiry they considered ending their lives, 10 of whom tried on at least one occasion, while other postmasters and family members recount suffering from alcoholism and mental health disorders including anorexia and depression, family breakup, divorce, bankruptcy and personal abuse.

Follow latest on public inquiry into Post Office scandal

Writing in the first volume of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry report, chairman Sir Wyn Williams concludes that this enormous personal toll came despite senior employees at the Post Office knowing the Horizon IT system could produce accounts “which were illusory rather than real” even before it was rolled out to branches.

Sir Wyn said: “I am satisfied from the evidence that I have heard that a number of senior, and not so senior, employees of the Post Office knew or, at the very least, should have known that Legacy Horizon was capable of error… Yet, for all practical purposes, throughout the lifetime of Legacy Horizon, the Post Office maintained the fiction that its data was always accurate.”

Referring to the updated version of Horizon, known as Horizon Online, which also had “bugs errors and defects” that could create illusory accounts, he said: “I am satisfied that a number of employees of Fujitsu and the Post Office knew that this was so.”

The first volume of the report focuses on what Sir Wyn calls the “disastrous” impact of false accusations made against at least 1,000 postmasters, and the various redress schemes the Post Office and government has established since miscarriages of justice were identified and proven.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘It stole a lot from me’

Recommendations regarding the conduct of senior management of the Post Office, Fujitsu and ministers will come in a subsequent report, but Sir Wyn is clear that unjust and flawed prosecutions were knowingly pursued.

“All of these people are properly to be regarded as victims of wholly unacceptable behaviour perpetrated by a number of individuals employed by and/or associated with the Post Office and Fujitsu from time to time and by the Post Office and Fujitsu as institutions,” he says.

What are the inquiry’s recommendations?

Calling for urgent action from government and the Post Office to ensure “full and fair compensation”, he makes 19 recommendations including:

• Government and the Post Office to agree a definition of “full and fair” compensation to be used when agreeing payouts
• Ending “unnecessarily adversarial attitude” to initial offers that have depressed the value of payouts, ⁠and ensuring consistency across all four compensation schemes
• The creation of a standing body to administer financial redress to people wronged by public bodies
• Compensation to be extended to close family members of those affected who have suffered “serious negative consequences”
• The Post Office, Fujitsu and government agreeing a programme for “restorative justice”, a process that brings together those that have suffered harm with those that have caused it

Regarding the human impact of the Post Office’s pursuit of postmasters, including its use of unique powers of prosecution, Sir Wyn writes: “I do not think it is easy to exaggerate the trauma which persons are likely to suffer when they are the subject of criminal investigation, prosecution, conviction and sentence.”

He says that even the process of being interviewed under caution by Post Office investigators “will have been troubling at best and harrowing at worst”.

Read more:
Post Office inquiry lays bare heart-breaking legacy – analysis

‘Hostile and abusive behaviour’

The report finds that those wrongfully convicted were “subject to hostile and abusive behaviour” in their local communities, felt shame and embarrassment, with some feeling forced to move.

Detailing the impact on close family members of those prosecuted, Sir Wyn writes: “Wives, husbands, children and parents endured very significant suffering in the form of distress, worry and disruption to home life, in employment and education.

“In a number of cases, relationships with spouses broke down and ended in divorce or separation.

“In the most egregious cases, family members themselves suffered psychiatric illnesses or psychological problems and very significant financial losses… their suffering has been acute.”

The report includes 17 case studies of those affected by the scandal including some who have never spoken publicly before. They include Millie Castleton, daughter of Lee Castleton, one of the first postmasters prosecuted.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Three things you need to know about Post Office report

She told the inquiry how her family being “branded thieves and liars” affected her mental health, and contributed to a diagnosis of anorexia that forced her to drop out of university.

Her account concludes: “Even now as I go into my career, I still find it so incredibly hard to trust anyone, even subconsciously. I sabotage myself by not asking for help with anything.

“I’m trying hard to break this cycle but I’m 26 and am very conscious that I may never be able to fully commit to natural trust. But my family is still fighting. I’m still fighting, as are many hundreds involved in the Post Office trial.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the inquiry’s report “marks an important milestone for sub-postmasters and their families”.

He added that he was “committed to ensuring wronged sub-postmasters are given full, fair, and prompt redress”.

“The recommendations contained in Sir Wyn’s report require careful reflection, including on further action to complete the redress schemes,” Mr Reynolds said.

“Government will promptly respond to the recommendations in full in parliament.”

Continue Reading

Business

Public finances in ‘relatively vulnerable position.’, OBR warns

Published

on

By

Public finances in 'relatively vulnerable position.', OBR warns

The UK’s public finances are in a “relatively vulnerable position”, the government’s official forecaster has warned.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) cited a drag from successive economic shocks, recent U-turns on spending cuts and higher-than-expected policy commitments.

It sounded alarm over the projected path for debt as a result, in its annual fiscal risks and sustainability report.

It saw total debt above 270% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the early 2070s – up from a current level of 96.5% – declaring that rising debts have led to “a substantial erosion of the UK’s capacity to respond to future shocks”.

Money latest: Amazon launches 24/7 grocery deliveries

The OBR’s report highlighted damage from the COVID pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But it raised fears that past and current government policies were further harming the sustainability of the public finances.

More from Money

The report said that the pension triple lock, for example, was now estimated to cost £15.5bn annually by 2029-30.

That was “around three times higher than initial expectations”, it said.

The lock, which rises each year in line with inflation, wage growth or 2.5% – whichever is higher – had risen by more than the 2.5% base in eight of the 13 years of operation to date, the report stated.

The watchdog said it reflected more volatile inflation than expected.

It also picked up on the latest government U-turns over planned welfare and winter fuel payment cuts in the face of rebellions by Labour MPs.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’

The decisions are expected to leave Chancellor Rachel Reeves facing a black hole of £6.75bn while weaker-than-expected economic growth could add a further £9bn to that sum in the run-up to the autumn budget, according to Sky News projections that see a void of around £20bn.

The OBR highlighted future risks from rising defence spending and the impact of climate change.

Public sector pay demands could also prove a drag, with resident doctors voting in favour of strikes over pay.

While ministers acknowledge damage to the public purse from the U-turns, Ms Reeves has repeatedly ruled out a new wave of borrowing to fund a spending spree.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Could the rich be taxed to fill black hole?

As such, the government has not ruled out the prospect of some form of wealth tax to help meet its commitments despite the top 1% of earners contributing almost a third of all income tax already – on top of other targeted taxes such as capital gains.

The report said: “Efforts to put the UK’s public finances on a more sustainable footing have met with only limited and temporary success in recent years in the aftermath of the shocks, debt has also continued to rise and borrowing remained elevated because governments have reversed plans to consolidate the public finances.

“Planned tax rises have been reversed, and, more significantly, planned spending reductions have been abandoned.”

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said of the report: “The OBR’s report lays bare the damage: Britain now has the third-highest deficit and the fourth-highest debt burden in Europe, with borrowing costs among the highest in the developed world.

“Under Rachel Reeves’ economic mismanagement and Keir Starmer’s weak leadership, our public finances have become dangerously exposed – vulnerable to future shocks, welfare spending rising unsustainably, taxes rising to record highs and crippling levels of debt interest.

“Labour’s recklessness risks it all – your pension, your job, your home, your savings.”

A Number 10 spokesman said: “We recognise the realities set out in the OBR’s report and we’re taking the decisions needed to provide stability to the public finances.”

Continue Reading

Trending