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The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine PRO, Bitcoin Magazine's premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

As we head into 2023, we want to highlight the latest state of bitcoin’s volume and volatility after a recent wave of capitulation. Last time we touched on these dynamics was in “The Bitcoin Ghost Town” in October, where we highlighted that an extremely low volume and low volatility period in bitcoin price, GBTC and the options market was a concerning sign for the next leg lower. This played out in early November.

Fast forward and the trends of declining volume and low volatility are back once again. Although this could be indicative of another leg lower to come in the market, it’s more likely indicative of a complacent and decimated market that few participants want to touch.

Even during the November 2021 capitulation period, there was a historically low period of volatility. Sometimes the most market pain can be felt when having to wait for a clear change in trends. The bitcoin price is providing that pain as we’ve yet to see the type of explosion in market volatility that has defined market pivots and major directional moves in the past.

SPX Bottoms

While there are many different ways to define, classify and estimate bitcoin volume in the market, they all show the same thing: September and November 2021 were the peak months of action. Since then, volume in both the spot and perpetual futures markets have been in steady decline.

Bitcoin volume across spot and perpetual futures markets

Overall market depth and liquidity has also taken a major hit after the collapse of FTX and Alameda. Their destruction has led to a large liquidity hole, which is yet to be filled due to the lack of market makers currently in the space.

By far, bitcoin is still the most liquid market of any other cryptocurrency or “token,” but it’s still relatively illiquid compared to other capital markets since the whole industry has been crushed over the last few months. Lower market depth and liquidity means assets are prone to more volatile shocks as single, relatively large orders can have a greater impact on market price. 

Source: Kaiko Q4 Report

Source: Kaiko Q4 ReportOn-Chain Apathy

As expected in the current environment, we’re also seeing more market complacency when looking at on-chain data. Although continuing to rise over time, the number of active addresses — unique addresses active as either a sender or receiver — remain fairly stagnant over the last few months. The chart below highlights the 14-day moving average of active addresses falling below the running average over the last year. In previous bull market conditions, we’ve seen growth in active addresses outpace the existing trend fairly significantly. 

Moving averages of active bitcoin adresseses

Since address data has its flaws, looking at Glassnode’s data for active entities shows us the same trend. Overall, bear markets reversing are the result of many factors, including growth in new users and an increase in on-chain activity. 

Moving averages of active bitcoin entities

Bitcoin transfer volume momentum

Bitcoin seller exhaustion levels

In our July 11 release “When Will The Bear Market End?”, we made the case that the brunt of the price-based capitulation had already been felt, while the real pain ahead was in the form of a time-based capitulation.“A look at previous bitcoin bear market cycles shows two distinct phases of capitulation:

“The first is a price-based capitulation, through a series of sharp selloffs and liquidations, as the asset draws down anywhere from 70 to 90% below previous all-time-high levels.

“The second phase, and the one that is spoken of far less often, is the time-based capitulation, where the market finally begins to find an equilibrium of supply and demand in a deep trough.” — Bitcoin Magazine PRO

We believe time-based capitulation is where we stand today. While exchange rate pressures can certainly intensify over the short term — given the macroeconomic headwinds that remain — the conditions that look likely to persist over the short and medium term look to be a sustained period of chop with extremely low levels of volatility that leave both traders and HODLers questioning when volatility and exchange rate appreciation will return.

Like this content? Subscribe now to receive PRO articles directly in your inbox.Relevant Past Articles:The Bitcoin Ghost TownWhen Will The Bear Market End?On-Chain Data Shows ‘Potential Bottom’ For Bitcoin But Macro Headwinds RemainState Of The Mining Industry: Survival Of The Fittest

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UK will play its ‘full part’ in peacekeeping efforts in Ukraine, says Sir Keir Starmer

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UK will play its 'full part' in peacekeeping efforts in Ukraine, says Sir Keir Starmer

The UK will play its “full part” in peacekeeping in Ukraine, Sir Keir Starmer has said.

The prime minister told Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby that the conflict with Russia was not just about “sovereignty in Ukraine” but about the impact it also had on the UK, including the cost of living crisis.

Sir Keir was speaking to Sky News while on a surprise visit to Ukraine on Thursday – his first since his party’s landslide election win six months ago.

The purpose of the trip was to discuss the next steps for Ukraine, with the situation now more uncertain following Donald Trump’s election victory in November.

Politics latest: Tories made mistake by leaving EU without growth plan, admits Badenoch

Mr Trump, whose inauguration takes place on 20 January, has said he wants a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine within 100 days.

But some European leaders fear pushing Kyiv into a deal could lead to Ukraine ceding some of its territory to Vladimir Putin.

More on Ukraine

Sir Keir said he did not want “to get ahead of ourselves” but that the UK would play its “full part” in any peace negotiations – including by deploying British troops for peacekeeping.

Asked if he would be prepared to do that, the prime minister replied: “Well, I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but I do have indicated that we will play our full part – because this isn’t just about sovereignty in Ukraine.

“It’s about what the impact is back in the United Kingdom and our values, our freedom, our democracy. Because if Russia succeeds in this aggression, it will impact all of us for a very, very long time.”

On arriving in Ukraine to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a Russian drone was shot over the sky over the presidential palace.

Sir Keir said the drone threat was “a reminder of what Ukraine is facing every day” and that the war was brought about by “Russian aggression”.

Elsewhere in the interview, Sir Keir was asked about his views on Ukraine’s longstanding desire to join NATO – something President Putin strongly opposes.

Read more:
With Donald Trump’s inauguration imminent, the Chagos deal appears to be on ice

MP Mike Amesbury admits punching man

At a NATO summit in Washington last summer, the alliance’s members announced that Ukraine was on an “irreversible” path to NATO membership.

“We fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements and decide its own future, free from outside interference. Ukraine’s future is in NATO,” the declaration said.

However, Mr Zelenskyy has somewhat tempered his language around NATO membership, telling Sky News in an exclusive interview in November that a ceasefire deal could be struck if Ukrainian territory he controlled falls “under the NATO umbrella” – allowing him to negotiate the return of the rest later “in a diplomatic way”.

However, Mr Trump has acknowledged Moscow’s opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, saying: “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that.”

Watch the full interview with Beth Rigby and Sir Keir Starmer on the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge at 7pm.

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UK

UK will play its ‘full part’ in peacekeeping efforts in Ukraine, says Sir Keir Starmer

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UK will play its 'full part' in peacekeeping efforts in Ukraine, says Sir Keir Starmer

The UK will play its “full part” in peacekeeping in Ukraine, Sir Keir Starmer has said.

The prime minister told Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby that the conflict with Russia was not just about “sovereignty in Ukraine” but about the impact it also had on the UK, including the cost of living crisis.

Sir Keir was speaking to Sky News while on a surprise visit to Ukraine on Thursday – his first since his party’s landslide election win six months ago.

The purpose of the trip was to discuss the next steps for Ukraine, with the situation now more uncertain following Donald Trump’s election victory in November.

Politics latest: Tories made mistake by leaving EU without growth plan, admits Badenoch

Mr Trump, whose inauguration takes place on 20 January, has said he wants a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine within 100 days.

But some European leaders fear pushing Kyiv into a deal could lead to Ukraine ceding some of its territory to Vladimir Putin.

More on Ukraine

Sir Keir said he did not want “to get ahead of ourselves” but that the UK would play its “full part” in any peace negotiations – including by deploying British troops for peacekeeping.

Asked if he would be prepared to do that, the prime minister replied: “Well, I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but I do have indicated that we will play our full part – because this isn’t just about sovereignty in Ukraine.

“It’s about what the impact is back in the United Kingdom and our values, our freedom, our democracy. Because if Russia succeeds in this aggression, it will impact all of us for a very, very long time.”

On arriving in Ukraine to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a Russian drone was shot over the sky over the presidential palace.

Sir Keir said the drone threat was “a reminder of what Ukraine is facing every day” and that the war was brought about by “Russian aggression”.

Elsewhere in the interview, Sir Keir was asked about his views on Ukraine’s longstanding desire to join NATO – something President Putin strongly opposes.

Read more:
With Donald Trump’s inauguration imminent, the Chagos deal appears to be on ice

MP Mike Amesbury admits punching man

At a NATO summit in Washington last summer, the alliance’s members announced that Ukraine was on an “irreversible” path to NATO membership.

“We fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements and decide its own future, free from outside interference. Ukraine’s future is in NATO,” the declaration said.

However, Mr Zelenskyy has somewhat tempered his language around NATO membership, telling Sky News in an exclusive interview in November that a ceasefire deal could be struck if Ukrainian territory he controlled falls “under the NATO umbrella” – allowing him to negotiate the return of the rest later “in a diplomatic way”.

However, Mr Trump has acknowledged Moscow’s opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, saying: “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that.”

Watch the full interview with Beth Rigby and Sir Keir Starmer on the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge at 7pm.

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Environment

Hyundai Ioniq 5 charges faster on a Tesla Supercharger than a Model 3 does

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Hyundai Ioniq 5 charges faster on a Tesla Supercharger than a Model 3 does

With the release of Hyundai’s 2025 Ioniq 5 with native NACS port, owners are heading to Tesla Superchargers to see how the experience is. And it turns out, the away team is beating the home team at charging speed… at least in some metrics.

This has been a busy time for the transition to NACS, the new EV charging standard for North America that was originally advanced by Tesla and now standardized by SAE.

We’ve seen several brands added to Tesla’s “coming soon” list for Supercharger access, and even beyond that, VW and Honda have both made their own announcements that access is coming soon. But we’ve also had a setback, as Kia announced access would be delayed (though some owners are finding ways to charge anyway).

Hyundai is one of the brands that was added to the “coming soon” list, but it also already released a vehicle with a native NACS port, and several of them are out in the wild. Given that the car includes the right port to charge on a Supercharger, it ought to be able to charge no problem, right?

Well, owners are finding that it can, if they go through the normal process for third party vehicles on Tesla Superchargers (download the app, set up payment information, start charge sessions through app, etc) and have the proper adapters or a 2025 car with native NACS. Hyundai hasn’t made it official yet, but it seems plenty possible.

And today we saw one test that shows Hyundai beating Tesla in one metric, even on Tesla’s home turf.

Out of Spec reviews took a Tesla Model 3 and a 2025 Hyundai Ioniq 5 with native NACS port to a local Tesla Supercharger to do a 1v1 charging test, and find out which vehicle charges better and faster on Tesla’s network.

The Ioniq 5 is based on Kia/Hyundai’s joint E-GMP platform, which has been hailed for its exceptional charging performance.

Despite it having a lower peak charge rate than some other vehicles (it tops out at around 230kW), it has an exceptionally broad charging curve, which means that it can maintain that peak charge rate for longer than other vehicles. Other vehicles start charging fast, but slow down rapidly as the battery fills up.

The upshot of this is that charging sessions will be faster with a broad charge curve, as long as you’re charging up to a high state of charge. Hyundai says the Ioniq 5 can charge from 10-80% in just 18 minutes, making it the current charging speed champion (and the Ioniq 6 charges even faster in terms of “miles per minute,” if you account for vehicle efficiency – more on that later).

That broad charge curve shined in Out of Spec’s side-by-side test, which you can see on its YouTube channel. The two cars have similar battery sizes, so it’s actually a pretty close test.

In the test, the Model 3, charging on home turf, charged for 31 minutes and 53 seconds, and 55.7kWh was delivered from the charger to the vehicle.

But the upstart Ioniq 5 managed to gain 59.6kWh in 30 minutes and 37 seconds, a slightly shorter time and slightly more energy delivered.

Those numbers are close enough to call it a wash, but still an impressive showing on away turf.

The victory is all the greater when considering that the Hyundai isn’t even charging at full power. The E-GMP platform uses an 800 volt architecture, and Tesla’s Superchargers mostly use 400 volts (the new V4 Supercharger will provide 400-1000 volts, but most in the wild are V3).

This means that the Ioniq 5 could only achieve a peak charge rate of 123kW in the test, which is nevertheless improved from the ~100kW that earlier model year E-GMP cars have seen when charging at Superchargers. But that’s far lower than the 250kW peak the Model 3 can reach.

But that aforementioned charge curve is still what ended up winning out. Slow and steady won this race.

There were a few difficulties in this specific test. For some reason, the Ioniq 5 randomly stopped charging, and Out of Spec couldn’t figure out why, and had to spend time restarting the charge session – which thankfully didn’t take that long, due to the much faster handshake speed to start charging sessions on Superchargers as compared to CCS stations.

The interruption also meant that the Hyundai had to ramp up its charging speed again. It may also be difficult to precondition a Hyundai – warming the battery to achieve better charging speeds – because so far, Tesla stations aren’t included in Ioniq 5’s navigation system, so preconditioning won’t happen automatically. An update should come soon to enable that.

However, this wasn’t a total victory for the Ioniq 5. Despite achieving a faster charge rate and getting more total energy, the Model 3 still won out in the most important practical metric – miles per minute.

Energy really doesn’t matter that much, what matters is how far it can get you. And the Model 3 is much more efficient than the Ioniq 5. While the cars have similarly-sized batteries, Tesla says the Model 3 can go 363 miles, whereas Hyundai says the Ioniq 5 can go 303 miles. Account for that ~20% higher efficiency, and the Model 3 won today’s test handily.

Now, if we were to try the same test with an Ioniq 6


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