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As we head into 2023, we want to highlight the latest state of bitcoin’s volume and volatility after a recent wave of capitulation. Last time we touched on these dynamics was in “The Bitcoin Ghost Town” in October, where we highlighted that an extremely low volume and low volatility period in bitcoin price, GBTC and the options market was a concerning sign for the next leg lower. This played out in early November.
Fast forward and the trends of declining volume and low volatility are back once again. Although this could be indicative of another leg lower to come in the market, it’s more likely indicative of a complacent and decimated market that few participants want to touch.
Even during the November 2021 capitulation period, there was a historically low period of volatility. Sometimes the most market pain can be felt when having to wait for a clear change in trends. The bitcoin price is providing that pain as we’ve yet to see the type of explosion in market volatility that has defined market pivots and major directional moves in the past.
SPX Bottoms
While there are many different ways to define, classify and estimate bitcoin volume in the market, they all show the same thing: September and November 2021 were the peak months of action. Since then, volume in both the spot and perpetual futures markets have been in steady decline.
Bitcoin volume across spot and perpetual futures markets
Overall market depth and liquidity has also taken a major hit after the collapse of FTX and Alameda. Their destruction has led to a large liquidity hole, which is yet to be filled due to the lack of market makers currently in the space.
By far, bitcoin is still the most liquid market of any other cryptocurrency or “token,” but it’s still relatively illiquid compared to other capital markets since the whole industry has been crushed over the last few months. Lower market depth and liquidity means assets are prone to more volatile shocks as single, relatively large orders can have a greater impact on market price.
Source: Kaiko Q4 Report
Source: Kaiko Q4 ReportOn-Chain Apathy
As expected in the current environment, we’re also seeing more market complacency when looking at on-chain data. Although continuing to rise over time, the number of active addresses — unique addresses active as either a sender or receiver — remain fairly stagnant over the last few months. The chart below highlights the 14-day moving average of active addresses falling below the running average over the last year. In previous bull market conditions, we’ve seen growth in active addresses outpace the existing trend fairly significantly.
Moving averages of active bitcoin adresseses
Since address data has its flaws, looking at Glassnode’s data for active entities shows us the same trend. Overall, bear markets reversing are the result of many factors, including growth in new users and an increase in on-chain activity.
Moving averages of active bitcoin entities
Bitcoin transfer volume momentum
Bitcoin seller exhaustion levels
In our July 11 release “When Will The Bear Market End?”, we made the case that the brunt of the price-based capitulation had already been felt, while the real pain ahead was in the form of a time-based capitulation.“A look at previous bitcoin bear market cycles shows two distinct phases of capitulation:
“The first is a price-based capitulation, through a series of sharp selloffs and liquidations, as the asset draws down anywhere from 70 to 90% below previous all-time-high levels.
“The second phase, and the one that is spoken of far less often, is the time-based capitulation, where the market finally begins to find an equilibrium of supply and demand in a deep trough.” — Bitcoin Magazine PRO
We believe time-based capitulation is where we stand today. While exchange rate pressures can certainly intensify over the short term — given the macroeconomic headwinds that remain — the conditions that look likely to persist over the short and medium term look to be a sustained period of chop with extremely low levels of volatility that leave both traders and HODLers questioning when volatility and exchange rate appreciation will return.
Like this content? Subscribe now to receive PRO articles directly in your inbox.Relevant Past Articles:The Bitcoin Ghost TownWhen Will The Bear Market End?On-Chain Data Shows ‘Potential Bottom’ For Bitcoin But Macro Headwinds RemainState Of The Mining Industry: Survival Of The Fittest
Flight tracking data shows extensive movement of US military aircraft towards the Middle East in recent days, including via the UK.
Fifty-two US military planes were spotted flying over the eastern Mediterranean towards the Middle East between Monday and Thursday.
That includes at least 25 that passed through Chania airport, on the Greek island of Crete – an eight-fold increase in the rate of arrivals compared to the first half of June.
The movement of military equipment comes as the US considers whether to assist Israel in its conflict with Iran.
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Of the 52 planes spotted over the eastern Mediterranean, 32 are used for transporting troops or cargo, 18 are used for mid-air refuelling and two are reconnaissance planes.
Forbes McKenzie, founder of McKenzie Intelligence, says that this indicates “the build-up of warfighting capability, which was not [in the region] before”.
Sky’s data does not include fighter jets, which typically fly without publicly revealing their location.
An air traffic control recording from Wednesday suggests that F-22 Raptors are among the planes being sent across the Atlantic, while 12 F-35 fighter jets were photographed travelling from the UK to the Middle East on Wednesday.
Image: A US air tanker seen flying over Suffolk, accompanied by F-35 jets. Pic: Instagram/g.lockaviation
Many US military planes are passing through UK
A growing number of US Air Force planes have been passing through the UK in recent days.
Analysis of flight tracking data at three key air bases in the UK shows 63 US military flights landing between 16 and 19 June – more than double the rate of arrivals earlier in June.
On Thursday, Sky News filmed three US military C-17A Globemaster III transport aircraft and a C-130 Hercules military cargo plane arriving at Glasgow’s Prestwick Airport.
Flight tracking data shows that one of the planes arrived from an air base in Jordan, having earlier travelled there from Germany.
What does Israel need from US?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on 15 March that his country’s aim is to remove “two existential threats – the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat”.
Israel says that Iran is attempting to develop a nuclear bomb, though Iran says its nuclear facilities are only for civilian energy purposes.
A US intelligence assessment in March concluded that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. President Trump dismissed the assessment on Tuesday, saying: “I think they were very close to having one.”
Forbes McKenzie says the Americans have a “very similar inventory of weapons systems” to the Israelis, “but of course, they also have the much-talked-about GBU-57”.
Image: A GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri in 2023. File pic: US Air Force via AP
The GBU-57 is a 30,000lb bomb – the largest non-nuclear bomb in existence. Mr McKenzie explains that it is “specifically designed to destroy targets which are very deep underground”.
Experts say it is the only weapon with any chance of destroying Iran’s main enrichment site, which is located underneath a mountain at Fordow.
Image: Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant
Air-to-air refuelling could allow Israel to carry larger bombs
Among the dozens of US aircraft that Sky News tracked over the eastern Mediterranean in recent days, more than a third (18 planes) were designed for air-to-air refuelling.
“These are crucial because Israel is the best part of a thousand miles away from Iran,” says Sky News military analyst Sean Bell.
“Most military fighter jets would struggle to do those 2,000-mile round trips and have enough combat fuel.”
The ability to refuel mid-flight would also allow Israeli planes to carry heavier munitions, including bunker-buster bombs necessary to destroy the tunnels and silos where Iran stores many of its missiles.
Satellite imagery captured on 15 June shows the aftermath of Israeli strikes on a missile facility near the western city of Kermanshah, which destroyed at least 12 buildings at the site.
Image: Seven of the 12 destroyed buildings at Kermanshah missile facility, Iran, 15 June 2025. Pic: Maxar
At least four tunnel entrances were also damaged in the strikes, two of which can be seen in the image below.
Image: Damaged tunnel entrances at Kermanshah missile facility, Iran, 15 June 2025. Pic: Maxar
Writing for Jane’s Defence Weekly, military analyst Jeremy Binnie says it looked like the tunnels were “targeted using guided munitions coming in at angles, not destroyed from above using penetrator bombs, raising the possibility that the damage can be cleared, enabling any [missile launchers] trapped inside to deploy”.
“This might reflect the limited payloads that Israeli aircraft can carry to Iran,” he adds.
Penetrator bombs, also known as bunker-busters, are much heavier than other types of munitions and as a result require more fuel to transport.
Israel does not have the latest generation of refuelling aircraft, Mr Binnie says, meaning it is likely to struggle to deploy a significant number of penetrator bombs.
Israel has struck most of Iran’s western missile bases
Even without direct US assistance, the Israeli air force has managed to inflict significant damage on Iran’s missile launch capacity.
Sky News has confirmed Israeli strikes on at least five of Iran’s six known missile bases in the west of the country.
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On Monday, the IDF said that its strategy of targeting western launch sites had forced Iran to rely on its bases in the centre of the country, such as Isfahan – around 1,500km (930 miles) from Israel.
Among Iran’s most advanced weapons are three types of solid-fuelled rockets fitted with highly manoeuvrable warheads: Fattah-1, Kheibar Shekan and Haj Qassam.
The use of solid fuel makes these missiles easy to transport and fast to launch, while their manoeuvrable warheads make them better at evading Israeli air defences. However, none of them are capable of striking Israel from such a distance.
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Iran is known to possess five types of missile capable of travelling more than 1,500km, but only one of these uses solid fuel – the Sijjil-1.
On 18 June, Iran claimed to have used this missile against Israel for the first time.
Iran’s missiles have caused significant damage
Iran’s missile attacks have killed at least 24 people in Israel and wounded hundreds, according to the Israeli foreign ministry.
The number of air raid alerts in Israel has topped 1,000 every day since the start of hostilities, reaching a peak of 3,024 on 15 June.
Iran has managed to strike some government buildings, including one in the city of Haifa on Friday.
And on 13 June, in Iran’s most notable targeting success so far, an Iranian missile impacted on or near the headquarters of Israel’s defence ministry in Tel Aviv.
Most of the Iranian strikes verified by Sky News, however, have hit civilian targets. These include residential buildings, a school and a university.
On Thursday, one missile hit the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba, southern Israel’s main hospital. More than 70 people were injured, according to Israel’s health ministry.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran had struck a nearby technology park containing an IDF cyber defence training centre, and that the “blast wave caused superficial damage to a small section” of the hospital.
However, the technology park is in fact 1.2km away from where the missile struck.
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Photos of the hospital show evidence of a direct hit, with a large section of one building’s roof completely destroyed.
Image: A general view of Soroka hospital following a missile strike from Iran on Israel.
Pic: Reuters
Iran successfully struck the technology park on Friday, though its missile fell in an open area, causing damage to a nearby residential building but no casualties.
Israel has killed much of Iran’s military leadership
It’s not clear exactly how many people Israel’s strikes in Iran have killed, or how many are civilians. Estimates by human rights groups of the total number of fatalities exceed 600.
What is clear is that among the military personnel killed are many key figures in the Iranian armed forces, including the military’s chief of staff, deputy head of intelligence and deputy head of operations.
Key figures in the powerful Revolutionary Guard have also been killed, including the militia’s commander-in-chief, its aerospace force commander and its air defences commander.
On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that US assistance was not necessary for Israel to win the war.
“We will achieve all our objectives and hit all of their nuclear facilities,” he said. “We have the capability to do that.”
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3:49
How close is Iran to producing a nuclear weapon?
Forbes McKenzie says that while Israel has secured significant victories in the war so far, “they only have so much fuel, they only have so many munitions”.
“The Americans have an ability to keep up the pace of operations that the Israelis have started, and they’re able to do it for an indefinite period of time.”
Additional reporting by data journalist Joely Santa Cruz and OSINT producers Freya Gibson, Lina-Sirine Zitout and Sam Doak.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
They were former classmates who both died after receiving care from the same mental health hospital three years apart.
Warning: This article contains reference to suicide
Multiple failings led to the death of 22-year-old Alice Figueiredo – who took her own life in July 2015 – and the NHS trust responsible for her care was charged with corporate manslaughter.
Last week, following a months-long trial, the trust was found not guilty of that charge but was convicted of serious health and safety failings.
Karis Braithwate, who had gone to school with Alice, also died in 2018, having been treated by the same NHS trust.
Reports seen by Sky News detail a decade of deaths at North East London NHS Foundation Trust (NELFT), with coroners repeatedly raising concerns about the mental health services provided by the trust – in particular at Goodmayes Hospital in Ilford.
Rushed assessments and neglect were often cited. One patient was marked as alive and well, even though he had taken his own life inside the hospital the previous day.
Another patient told staff he was hearing voices telling him to kill himself, yet staff did not remove crucial items from his possession – items he would later use to take his own life.
Karis, 24, was sent to Goodmayes Hospital after she tried to take her own life at a train station in October 2018. The next day, staff spent 27 minutes assessing her and a further two minutes confirming their conclusion.
Image: Alice Figueiredo (L) and Karis Braithwaite (R) died in 2015 and 2018 respectively
She was discharged from hospital in the afternoon. She then went to a nearby railway station and took her own life. Her death came less than an hour after she had left the hospital.
Karis had been friends with Alice, her mother said. The pair had been classmates at the same school.
Karis told her mother she was upset at being put on the same ward where Alice had taken her own life three years earlier.
Her stepfather Mark Bambridge called Karis sweet and kind and said she often “struggled with life”. He felt relief when she was taken to hospital, saying: “She was in a place where she would be taken care of.”
Image: Mark Bambridge said Karis was a sweet and kind girl
Karis’s mother – who asked not to be named – said her daughter confided in her about the neglect she endured at the hospital.
Karis told her mother that her carer would sleep when they were supposed to be watching over her and said she never felt safe.
“She spoke of her belongings going missing, of being treated with indifference and disrespect, and of staff who showed little concern for her wellbeing,” her mother said.
Karis’s mother said her daughter was failed by the hospital and the family was offered only a “hollow, superficial and indifferent ‘apology’ from the administration team of those who were meant to protect her”.
In the wake of the verdict in Alice’s case, Karis’s mother said: “I am holding Alice’s family in my thoughts and praying they receive the justice they – and we – so clearly need and deserve.”
A spokesperson for NELFT called Karis’s death a “profound tragedy” and said the trust had conducted an in-depth review of patient safety since 2018, “resulting in significant changes in the way we assess risk of suicide”.
“We train our staff to consider the trauma in a patient’s history, rather than focusing solely on their current crisis,” the spokesperson added.
“This approach allows us to see the person behind the diagnosis, making it easier to identify warning signs and support safe recovery.”
The trust said it had also improved record-keeping and communication between emergency workers and mental health practitioners.
The man marked as alive after he’d died
Sky News looked at more than 20 prevention of future death reports, which are written by a coroner to draw attention to a matter in which they think action could be taken to prevent future deaths.
Behind each report is a different person, but there are some strikingly similar themes – failure to carry out adequate risk assessments; issues sharing and recording information; neglect.
One report said staff at Goodmayes Hospital “panicked and did not follow policy” in the wake of a man’s death in 2021, instead writing that he was still alive when he had died the day before.
Speaking in response at the time, the trust said it had written a “detailed action plan” to address concerns raised.
Another report said one woman developed deep vein thrombosis after she was left to sit motionless in her room. She had not eaten or drunk anything in the two days before her death, and the trust was criticised for failing to record her food intake.
Responding to the report at the time, the trust said it had implemented new policies to learn from her death.
Issues stretched beyond Goodmayes Hospital and spanned the entire NHS trust.
One man was not given any community support and overdosed after his access to medication was not limited.
Another man, a father of three, was detained under the Mental Health Act but released from Goodmayes after just a few hours. The 39-year-old was found dead two weeks later after being reported missing by his family.
At his inquest, a coroner raised concerns about the lack of a detailed assessment around him, with a junior doctor saying he was the only doctor available for 11 wards and 200 patients.
‘Don’t kill yourself on my shift’
It has been 10 years since Alice took her own life inside the walls of Goodmayes Hospital. But current patients say the issues haven’t gone away.
Teresa Whitbread said her 18-year-old granddaughter Chantelle was a high suicide risk but she still managed to escape from the hospital “20 times”.
“I walked in one day and said, ‘Where is Chantelle?’, and no one could tell me,” she told Sky News.
Image: Teresa Whitbread does not want her granddaughter to return to Goodmayes Hospital
On another occasion, Chantelle managed to get into the medical room and stabbed herself and a nurse with a needle.
She said one nurse told her granddaughter: “Don’t kill yourself on my shift. Wait until you go home and kill yourself.”
Teresa grew emotional as she talked about her granddaughter, once a vibrant young girl and avid boxer, whose treatment is now managed by community services.
“It’s made her worse,” Teresa said of Chantelle’s experience at Goodmayes Hospital. “There’s no care, there’s no care plan, there’s no treatment.”
The NEFLT said it could not comment on specific cases but added that “patient safety is our absolute priority, and we work closely with our patients and their families to ensure we provide compassionate care tailored to their needs”.
Chantelle’s family say she is a shell of her former self and have begged mental health services not send her back to Goodmayes.
“Something has to change, and if it doesn’t change, [the hospital] needs to be closed down,” Teresa said.
“Because people are not safe in there.”
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK
In a high-tech move that we can all get behind and isn’t dystopian at all, the City of Barcelona is feeding camera data from its city buses into an advanced AI, but they swear they’re not using the footage to to issue tickets to bad drivers. Yet.
Barcelona and its Ring Roads Low Emission Zone have earned lots of fans by limiting ICE traffic in the city’s core. The city’s latest idea to promote mass transit is the deployment of an artificial intelligence system developed by Hayden AI for automatic enforcement of reserved lanes and stops to improve bus circulation – but while it seems to be working as intended, it’s raising entirely different questions.
“Bus lanes are designed to help deliver reliable, fast, and convenient public transport service. But private vehicles illegally using bus lanes make this impossible,” explains Laia Bonet, First Deputy Mayor, Area for Urban Planning, Ecological Transition, Urban Services and Housing at the Ajuntament de Barcelona. “We are excited to partner with Hayden AI to learn where these problems occur and how they are impacting our public transport service.”
Currently operating as a pilot program on the city’s H12 and D20 bus lines, the system uses cameras installed on the city’s electric buses to detect vehicles that commit static violations in the bus lanes and stops (read: stopping or parking where you shouldn’t). The Hayden AI system then analyses that data and provides statistical information on what it captures while the bus is driving along on its daily route.
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Hayden AI says that, while it photographs and records video sequences and collects contextual information of the violation, its cameras do not record license plates or people and no penalties are being issued to drivers or owners of the vehicles.
So far so good, right? But it’s what happens once the six mont pilot is over that seems like it should be setting off alarm bells.
Big Brother Bus is watching
“You are being recorded” sign in a bus; via Barcelona City Council.
The footage is manually reviewed by a Transports Metropolitans de Barcelona (TMB) officer, who reportedly reviewed some 2,500 violations identified by AI in May alone. But, while the system isn’t being used to issue violations during the pilot program, it easily could.
And, in fact, it already has … and the AI f@#ked up royally.
AI writes thousands of bad tickets
NYC issued hundreds of thousands of tickets; via NBC.
When AI was given the ability to issue citations in New York City earlier this year, it wrote more than 290,000 tickets (that’s right: two-hundred and ninety thousand) in just three months, generating nearly $21 million in revenue for the city. The was just one problem: thousands of those drivers weren’t doing anything wrong.
What’s more, the photos generated by the AI powered cameras were supposed to be approved only after being verified by a human, but either that didn’t happen, or it did happen and the human operator in question wasn’t paying attention, or (maybe the worst possibility) the violations were mistakes or hallucinations, and the human checker couldn’t tell the difference.
In OpenAI’s tests of its newest o3 and o4-mini reasoning models, the company found the o3 model hallucinated 33% of the time during its PersonQA tests, in which the bot is asked questions about public figures. When asked short fact-based questions in the company’s SimpleQA tests, OpenAI said o3 hallucinated 51% of the time. The o4-mini model fared even worse: It hallucinated 41% of the time during the PersonQA test and 79% of the time in the SimpleQA test, though OpenAI said its worse performance was expected as it is a smaller model designed to be faster. OpenAI’s latest update to ChatGPT, GPT-4.5, hallucinates less than its o3 and o4-mini models. The company said when GPT-4.5 was released in February the model has a hallucination rate of 37.1% for its SimpleQA test.
I don’t know about you guys, but if we had a local traffic cop that got it wrong 33% of the time (at best), I’d be surprised if they kept their job for very long. But AI? AI has a multibillion dollar hype train and armies of undereducated believers talking about singularities and building themselves blonde robots with boobs. And once the AI starts issuing tickets to the AI that’s driving your robotaxi, it can just call its buddy AI the bank to send over your money. No human necessary, at any point, and the economy keeps on humming.
But, like – I’m sure that’s fine. Embrace the future and all that … right?
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