Consumer spending failed to keep pace with inflation in December, figures suggest, likely bolstering the view among economists that the UK is in recession.
Closely watched data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Barclaycard showed spending rose by 6.9% and 4.4% in value terms respectively in December compared to a year ago.
Both readings fell short of inflation, which stood at 10.7% when last measured in November.
They were also flattered by the impact of COVID in December 2021 when the spread of the Omicron variant forced people to cut back on Christmas gatherings.
There was further, separate, evidence that online shopping suffered last month due to jitters among shoppers about the impact of strikes by frontline Royal Mail workers.
Ecommerce trade body IMRG reported a 12% dip compared to the same month last year.
It noted that the final week before Christmas was particularly badly hit by delivery disruption.
The BRC’s retail sales monitor, compiled with KPMG, warned that shoppers faced further price hikes ahead if costs, such as energy bills, did not settle down.
Paul Martin, UK head of retail at KPMG, said the cost of living crisis dominated the festive season.
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“Whilst the numbers for sales growth in December look healthy, with sales values up by nearly 7% on last year, this is largely due to goods costing more and masks the fact that the volume of goods that people are buying is significantly down on this time last year,” he wrote.
“Consumers shunned big ticket technology purchases in December, opting for energy efficient household appliances and Christmas mainstays of clothes and beauty items.”
He added: “With Christmas behind us, retailers are facing a challenging few months as consumers manage rising interest rates and energy prices by reducing their non-essential spending, and industrial action across a number of sectors could also impact sales.
“The strong demand across certain categories that has protected some retailers will undoubtedly fall away so we can expect high street casualties as we head into the spring.”
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0:50
Should market expect retail profit warnings?
Why UK may be in recession
The data was seen as backing the view of many economists, as well as the Bank of England, that the UK’s consumer spending-led economy is already in recession.
The Office for National Statistics has already reported a contraction for the July-September quarter and a recession would be confirmed if a negative growth figure was to be achieved between October and December 2022.
Economists polled by Reuters expect a 0.3% month-on-month decline to be reported for November on Friday.
The prospect of such a downturn would normally prompt policy support by the Bank of England but financial markets expect further interest rate hikes ahead to combat the threat to the economy from inflation.
A note by Pantheon Macroeconomics released on Monday warned: “November’s GDP data should leave little doubt that a recession has begun.
“But with the MPC (Bank of England’s monetary policy committee) already anticipating a deep downturn and currently placing more weight on wage and price developments, this report likely won’t lead to a decisive decline in interest rate expectations.”
For all the brinkmanship, for all the high stakes and attempts to wield maximum leverage, in the end, there was clear recognition from both the US and China that a degree of stabilisation was necessary.
The fact that some progress has been made on a relatively wide range of issues speaks to that.
But there are real questions about how deep that progress runs and how easily, in the hands of two leaders who staked both their reputations on being strong and unyielding, it could all come crashing down.
From the very outset, the differences in style could not have been more stark.
As the two posed for the introductory handshake, Donald Trump moved quickly to dominate the space – leaning in, doing all the talking, even quipping to the gathered reporters that Xi Jinping is “a very strong negotiator, and that isn’t good”.
That didn’t raise as much as an eyebrow from the Chinese leader.
Xi doesn’t like or respond well to unscripted moments; Trump, on the other hand, lives for them.
It might seem like a relatively inconsequential detail, but it speaks to how difficult it has been for two such opposing systems to see eye to eye, and how many stumbling blocks remained.
But it seems today, at least some of that was overcome.
Image: Donald Trump and Xi Jinping held talks in Busan, South Korea. Pic: Reuters
Indeed, there appears to have been an agreement on key issues such as the movement of rare earth minerals, the purchase of soybeans, the reduction of tariffs and the crackdown on the trade of fentanyl and the chemicals used to make it.
There was further consensus to keep talking about the sale of high-end US chips and to work together to try to end the war in Ukraine.
None of this is insignificant, but Trump’s assessment of it all as a “12 out of 10” likely brushes over many much thornier issues.
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Trump scores meeting with Xi a ’12 out of 10′
The reality is that there is still a great gulf between them; there are many more barriers to trade than there were at the start of the year, there are still a raft of deep political and structural issues that divide them and the levels of distrust the trade war has left will take more than just one meeting to fix.
Disagreements, such as the future status of Taiwan, for example, weren’t even mentioned today.
Image: There is still a gulf between the two leaders, despite the pair agreeing on key issues at the summit. Pic: Reuters
There also doesn’t appear to be any guarantees baked in, and thus, there is nothing to prevent either party from reneging on what has been agreed and ramping pressure back up as soon as another issue arises.
And, given the characters involved, that feels all too likely.
Indeed, both sides, for different reasons, have found political advantage in the “maximum pressure” style brinkmanship we’ve seen in recent months.
Donald Trump has described crucial trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as “amazing” – and says he will visit Beijing in April.
The leaders of the world’s two biggest economies met in South Korea as they tried to defuse growing tensions – with both countries imposing aggressive tariffs on exports since the president’s second term began.
Aboard Air Force One, Mr Trump confirmed tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US will be reduced, which could prove much-needed relief to consumers.
It was also agreed that Beijing will work “hard” to stop fentanyl flowing into the US.
Semiconductor chips were another issue raised during their 100-minute meeting, but the president admitted certain issues weren’t discussed.
“On a scale of one to 10, the meeting with Xi was 12,” he told reporters en route back to the US.
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2:08
‘Their handshake was almost a bit awkward’
Xi a ‘tough negotiator’, says Trump
The talks conclude a whirlwind visit across Asia – with Mr Trump saying he was “too busy” to see Kim Jong Un.
However, the president said he would be willing to fly back to see the North Korean leader, with a view to discussing denuclearisation.
Mr Trump had predicted negotiations with his Chinese counterpart would last for three or four hours – but their meeting ended in less than two.
The pair shook hands before the summit, with the US president quipping: “He’s a tough negotiator – and that’s not good!”
It marks the first face-to-face meeting between both men since 2019 – back in Mr Trump’s first term.
Image: Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Pic: AP
There were signs that Beijing had extended an olive branch to Washington ahead of the talks, with confirmation China will start buying US soybeans again.
American farmers have been feeling the pinch since China stopped making purchases earlier this year – not least because the country was their biggest overseas market.
Chinese stocks reached a 10-year high early on Thursday as investors digested their meeting, with the yuan rallying to a one-year high against the US dollar.
Analysis: A fascinating power play
Sky News Asia correspondent Helen-Ann Smith – who is in Busan where the talks took place – said it was fascinating to see the power play between both world leaders.
She said: “Trump moved quickly to dominate the space – leaning in, doing all the talking, even responding very briefly to a few thrown questions.
“That didn’t draw so much as an eyebrow raise from his counterpart, who was totally inscrutable. Xi does not like or respond well to unscripted moments, Trump lives for them.”
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2:43
Will Trump really run for a third term?
On Truth Social, Mr Trump had described the summit as a gathering of the “G2” – a nod to America and China’s status as the world’s two biggest economies.
While en route to see President Xi, he also revealed that the US “Department of War” has now been ordered to start testing nuclear weapons for the first time since 1992.
Some of the world’s biggest tech giants reported quarterly earnings on Wednesday – with a mixed bag of results as fears grow that a bubble is forming in artificial intelligence.
Microsoft revealed that its spending on AI infrastructure hit almost $35bn (£26.5bn) in the three months to the end of September, a sharp rise compared with the year before.
Despite revenue jumping 18% and net income rising 12%, shares plunged by close to 4% in after-hours trading, with investors concerned about the mounting costs of sustaining the boom.
Image: Microsoft is now a $4trn company thanks to its stake in ChatGPT maker OpenAI. AP file pic
Microsoft’s vice president of investor relations Jonathan Neilson said: “We continue to see demand which exceeds the capacity we have available.
“Our capital expenditure strategy remains unchanged in that we build against the demand signal we’re seeing.”
Big Tech is facing increasing pressure to show returns on the massive AI investments they’re making, against a backdrop of soaring valuations and limited evidence of productivity gains.
Microsoft became the world’s second most valuable company this week thanks to its 27% stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT.
Its market capitalisation surged beyond $4trn (£3trn) at one point, but that psychologically significant threshold is now in doubt because of recent selloffs.
Image: iStock file pic
Alphabet makes history
Last night’s results weren’t all doom and gloom – with shares in Google’s parent company surging by 6% in after-hours trading.
Alphabet has also set out aggressive spending ambitions, but placated investors thanks to an impressive set of results that surpassed analysts’ expectations.
Total revenue for the quarter stood at a staggering $102.35bn (£77bn), with the search giant’s advertising unit remaining robust despite growing competition.
But concerns linger that Alphabet’s dominance in search could be undermined by AI startups, with OpenAI recently unveiling a browser designed to rival Google Chrome.
Hargreaves Lansdown’s senior equity analyst Matt Britzman shrugged off this threat – and believes the company is “gearing up for long-term AI leadership”.
He said: “Alphabet just delivered its first-ever $100bn quarter, silencing the doubters with standout performances in both Search and Cloud.
“AI Overviews and AI Mode are clearly resonating with users, helping to ease fears that Google’s core search business is under threat from generative AI.
“With ChatGPT’s recent browser demo falling short of a game-changer, Google looks well-placed to put up a strong defence as gatekeeper to the internet.”
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Browser could ‘change the way we use the internet’
Meta faces a mauling
Meta – the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp – saw its shares tumble by as much as 10% in after-hours trading.
Mark Zuckerberg’s tech empire anticipates “notably larger” capital expenses next year as it ramps up investments in AI and goes on a hiring spree for top talent.
Net income in the third quarter stood at $2.7bn (£2bn) and suffered an eye-watering $16bn (£12bn) hit because of Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”.
Meta was late to the party on AI but has now doubled down on this still-nascent technology – setting an ambition to achieve superintelligence, a milestone where machines could theoretically outthink humans.
The social networking giant continues to benefit from its massive user base, and expects fourth-quarter revenues of up to $59bn (£44bn).