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Consumer spending failed to keep pace with inflation in December, figures suggest, likely bolstering the view among economists that the UK is in recession.

Closely watched data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Barclaycard showed spending rose by 6.9% and 4.4% in value terms respectively in December compared to a year ago.

Both readings fell short of inflation, which stood at 10.7% when last measured in November.

They were also flattered by the impact of COVID in December 2021 when the spread of the Omicron variant forced people to cut back on Christmas gatherings.

There was further, separate, evidence that online shopping suffered last month due to jitters among shoppers about the impact of strikes by frontline Royal Mail workers.

Ecommerce trade body IMRG reported a 12% dip compared to the same month last year.

It noted that the final week before Christmas was particularly badly hit by delivery disruption.

The BRC’s retail sales monitor, compiled with KPMG, warned that shoppers faced further price hikes ahead if costs, such as energy bills, did not settle down.

Paul Martin, UK head of retail at KPMG, said the cost of living crisis dominated the festive season.

“Whilst the numbers for sales growth in December look healthy, with sales values up by nearly 7% on last year, this is largely due to goods costing more and masks the fact that the volume of goods that people are buying is significantly down on this time last year,” he wrote.

“Consumers shunned big ticket technology purchases in December, opting for energy efficient household appliances and Christmas mainstays of clothes and beauty items.”

He added: “With Christmas behind us, retailers are facing a challenging few months as consumers manage rising interest rates and energy prices by reducing their non-essential spending, and industrial action across a number of sectors could also impact sales.

“The strong demand across certain categories that has protected some retailers will undoubtedly fall away so we can expect high street casualties as we head into the spring.”

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Should market expect retail profit warnings?

Why UK may be in recession

The data was seen as backing the view of many economists, as well as the Bank of England, that the UK’s consumer spending-led economy is already in recession.

The Office for National Statistics has already reported a contraction for the July-September quarter and a recession would be confirmed if a negative growth figure was to be achieved between October and December 2022.

Economists polled by Reuters expect a 0.3% month-on-month decline to be reported for November on Friday.

The prospect of such a downturn would normally prompt policy support by the Bank of England but financial markets expect further interest rate hikes ahead to combat the threat to the economy from inflation.

A note by Pantheon Macroeconomics released on Monday warned: “November’s GDP data should leave little doubt that a recession has begun.

“But with the MPC (Bank of England’s monetary policy committee) already anticipating a deep downturn and
currently placing more weight on wage and price developments, this report likely won’t lead to a decisive decline in interest rate expectations.”

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Gatwick second runway decision deadline is extended on green concerns

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Gatwick second runway decision deadline is extended on green concerns

The government has signalled that plans to bring a second runway at Gatwick into regular use will get the green light if environmental conditions are met.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she was “minded to approve” the airport’s plans but the deadline for a decision had now been pushed back until the end of October.

The main stumbling blocks facing Gatwick’s proposals are related to its provisions for noise prevention and public transport.

The Planning Inspectorate had made recommendations in those two areas after initially rejecting the scheme.

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The airport welcomed the government’s statement but did not say whether it saw a need to adjust its plans to meet the conditions.

Gatwick has until April 24 to respond to the new proposals.

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The northern runway already exists at the airport parallel to the main one, but cannot be used at the same time as it is too close.

It is currently limited to being a taxiway and only used for take-offs and landings if the main one has to shut.

Gatwick wants to move it 12 metres further away to solve this problem.

A view of the Northern Runway, after a press conference at the South Terminal of Gatwick Airport, West Sussex, to discuss plans to use the airport's emergency runway for routine flights. Picture date: Wednesday August 25, 2021.
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The northern runway is currently only used for emergencies or where the main one is closed. Pic: PA

It says being able to run both at the same time would allow around 100,000 more flights per year and create 14,000 jobs.

Gatwick says the £2.2bn project would not need government money, would be 100% privately funded, and could be complete by the end of the decade.

The airport is already the second busiest in the UK, and the busiest single runway airport in Europe.

Campaigners argue the additional traffic would be catastrophic for the environment and the local community in particular.

Today’s update comes after the chancellor said last month the government also supported a third runway at Heathrow as part of its wider effort to bolster UK economic growth.

However, the formal planning process is still to take place.

Gatwick’s additional runway would be unlikely to open until the end of the decade, assuming any legal challenges were swiftly overcome.

A government source told Sky News: “The transport secretary has set out a path to approving the expansion of Gatwick today following the Planning Inspectorate’s recommendation to refuse the original application.

“This is an important step forward and demonstrates that this government will stop at nothing to deliver economic growth and new infrastructure as part of our Plan for Change.

“Expansion will bring huge benefits for business and represents a victory for holidaymakers. We want to deliver this opportunity in line with our legal, environmental and climate obligations.

“We look forward to Gatwick’s response as they have indicated planes could take off from a new runway before the end of this Parliament.”

Stewart Wingate, Gatwick’s chief executive, said: “We welcome today’s announcement that the Secretary of State for Transport is minded to approve our Northern Runway plans and has outlined a clear pathway to full approval later in the year.

“It is vital that any planning conditions attached to the final approval enable us to make a decision to invest £2.2bn in this project and realise the full benefits of bringing the Northern Runway into routine use.

“We will of course engage fully in the extended process for a final decision.”

He added: “We stand ready to deliver this project which will create 14,000 jobs and generate £1bn a year in economic benefits. By increasing resilience and capacity we can support the UK’s position as a leader in global connectivity and deliver substantial trade and economic growth in the South East and more broadly.

“We have also outlined to government how we plan to grow responsibly to meet increasing passenger demand, while minimising noise and environmental impacts.”

A spokesperson for campaign group Communities Against Gatwick Noise Emissions (Cagne) responded: “We welcome the extension by the secretary of state until October as she has obviously recognised the many holes in the Gatwick airport submissions during the planning hearings.

“Cagne do not believe Gatwick has been totally up front with their submissions, and the planning hearings left so many questions unanswered.”

Greenpeace UK’s policy director, Doug Parr, said of the process ahead: “By approving Gatwick’s expansion the government will hang a millstone the size of a 747 around the country’s neck.

“Such a decision would be one that smacks of desperation, completely ignoring the solid evidence that increasing air travel won’t drive economic growth. The only thing it’s set to boost is air pollution, noise, and climate emissions.”

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Ex-Manchester United chief Woodward pitched Eagle Football role

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Ex-Manchester United chief Woodward pitched Eagle Football role

Ed Woodward, the former Manchester United chief, has been approached about joining the vehicle which owns stakes in clubs including Crystal Palace and Olympique Lyonnais.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Woodward, who left Old Trafford in 2022, a year after United’s involvement in the ill-fated European Super League project, is being lined up as an independent director of Eagle Football Holdings as it prepares to list in the US.

Sources said on Thursday that it was not certain that Mr Woodward’s appointment would go ahead, but confirmed that he had been approached about his first mainstream football directorship since ending his long stint at the former Premier League champions.

Mr Woodward spent 17 years at Old Trafford, having played a key role in the Glazer family’s debt-fuelled takeover of the club in 2005.

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Eagle Football, which is controlled by the American businessman John Textor, is expected to file confidentially with US regulators for an initial public offering in the next fortnight.

The vehicle owns a 45% stake in Crystal Palace, which it has been trying to sell for months but may now retain as a result of the club’s improved performance in English football’s top flight.

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Last summer, Sky News revealed that Eagle Football had hired investment banks including Stifel and TD Cowen to advise on the IPO, with Bloomberg News adding this week that UBS is also working on the deal.

The Eagle Football board is understood to have added Mr Textor’s former FuboTV colleague Alex Bafer, the Trilith Studios president and chief executive Frank Patterson and finance executive Sam Lynn as directors in recent weeks.

Its lenders are currently represented on the board, although these directors are expected to step down in the event of the company becoming publicly traded.

If the IPO proceeds, Eagle Football is expected to try to raise several hundred million dollars at a valuation of more than $2bn.

The vehicle also owns the Brazilian champions Botafogo, RW Molenbeek in Belgium and FC Florida.

Last year, Mr Textor held talks about buying Everton FC, but was eventually outbid by the AS Roma owner, Dan Friedkin.

Had he been successful, Mr Textor would have had to complete the sale of his Palace stake under Premier League ownership rules.

Raine Group, which handled the sale of Chelsea in 2022 and a minority stake in Manchester United to Sir Jim Ratcliffe the following year, has been overseeing the potential disposal of Eagle Football’s Crystal Palace stake.

A number of parties have expressed serious interest, including a group advised by the football financier Keith Harris.

However, a transaction is not thought to be imminent.

In the past, Mr Textor has spoken about his belief that public ownership of football teams provides fans with greater transparency about the running of their clubs.

He has described this as the democratisation of ownership – an issue likely to be at the heart of a bill on football regulation when it is reintroduced to parliament by the new Labour government.

If Eagle Football’s filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission proceeds in the coming weeks, its stock would be expected to commence trading several months later.

Mr Textor could not be reached for comment, while Mr Woodward did not respond to a request for comment on Thursday.

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Nvidia signals strong AI chip demand despite DeepSeek threat

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Nvidia signals strong AI chip demand despite DeepSeek threat

Nvidia has signalled no drop in demand for its flagship chips among big artificial intelligence (AI) spenders despite the low-cost challenge posed by Chinese rival DeepSeek.

The leading AI chipmaker said it expected Blackwell sales to continue to grow after its latest earnings beat market expectations.

Nvidia forecast revenue of around $43bn (£34bn) for its first quarter after achieving a figure of $39.3bn (£31bn) over its last three months – up 12% from the previous quarter and 78% from one year ago.

Just a month ago, its shares took a hammering when it emerged DeepSeek‘s primary chatbot, which uses lower-cost chips, had become the most popular free application on Apple’s App Store across the US.

Nvidia’s shares lost almost $600bn in market value in a day.

It also prompted investors to question whether the AI-led stock market rally of recent years was overblown.

There was anxiety ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report though shares only fell fractionally in after-hours dealing.

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Market analysts suggested demand from Microsoft, Amazon and other heavyweight tech companies racing to build
AI infrastructure remained robust, given Nvidia’s revenue guidance even though the bulk of it is accounted for through data centres.

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Who will win the AI battle?

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Nvidia founder Jensen Huang said Nvidia has ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell and achieved “billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter”.

“Demand for Blackwell is amazing as reasoning AI adds another scaling law – increasing compute for training makes models smarter and increasing compute for long thinking makes the answer smarter.

“AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionise the largest industries,” he said.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of the report: “The longer-term investment case for the driver of the AI train is looking difficult to pick holes in, with Meta’s $200bn just one of the latest mega investments in data centres to be unveiled recently.

“By virtue of scale, growth may be slowing a little but upgrades to analysts full-year numbers can be expected off the back of today’s results. At a around 30x forward earnings, the valuation still doesn’t look overcooked.”

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