Exxon predicted global warming with remarkable accuracy years ago, study shows
Gas prices are displayed at an Exxon gas station on July 29, 2022 in Houston, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
Three academics from Harvard and the University of Potsdam in Germany published a study in the journal Science on Thursday providing evidence that Exxon Mobil, the oil and gas behemoth with a current market capitalization of $466 billion, predicted global warming with incredible accuracy in a series of internal reports and messages starting in the 1970s.
“Specifically, what’s new here is that we put a number on – and paint a picture of – what Exxon knew and when,” said study co-author Geoffrey Supran, who worked as a research associate at Harvard when he did this work.
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“We now have airtight, unimpeachable evidence that ExxonMobil accurately predicted global warming years before it turned around and publicly attacked climate science and scientists. Our findings show that ExxonMobil’s public denial of climate science contradicted its own scientists’ data,” Supran told CNBC. “This corroborates and adds statistical precision to the prior conclusions of scholars, journalists, lawyers, and politicians.”
The phrase and hashtag “ExxonKnew” have become a rallying cry after previous reporting from Inside Climate News and others showing that Exxon publicly contradicted its own understanding of climate science.
Exxon Mobil says the “ExxonKnew” movement is a “coordinated campaign” working to “stigmatize” the oil company, “creating the false appearance that ExxonMobil has misrepresented its company research and investor disclosures on climate change to the public.”
Climate activists protest on the first day of the Exxon Mobil trial outside the New York State Supreme Court building on October 22, 2019 in New York City.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
It all started with a tweet
The catalyst for the research was a viral tweet, Supran told CNBC.
Stefan Rahmstorf, a physics professor at the University of Potsdam, saw a global warming predictive chart from Exxon Mobil that Supran and Harvard professor Naomi Oreskes had previously discovered, and overlaid actual historical data on top of Exxon’s.
“The overlap was startling,” Supran said and when Rahmstorf blogged and tweeted about it, the results got a lot of attention, “by the standards of climate science on Twitter anyway,” Supran told CNBC.
The three academics then realized that the accuracy of Exxon’s climate’s projections hadn’t been formally studied, and teamed up to write this report. They were surprised to discover is the extent and accuracy of Exxon’s knowledge of climate science.
“It was startling to plot all of the company’s projections onto one graph and find them all line up so tightly around the real-world temperature rise that has ensued since their reports. That gave me pause, seeing quantitatively that Exxon didn’t just know some climate science, they helped advance it,” Supran told CNBC. “They didn’t just vaguely know ‘something’ about global warming decades ago, they knew as much as independent academic and government scientists did. Arguably, they knew all they needed to know.”
According to their research, the academics found that between 63% and 83% of the climate projections Exxon made were accurate in predicting future climate change and global warming. Exxon predicted that climate change would cause global warming of 0.20° ± 0.04 degrees Celsius per decade, which is the same as academic and governmental predictions that came out between 1970 and 2007.
The study in Science builds on work done by investigative journalists at Inside Climate News back in 2015 and Democratic lawmakers at the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, among many others.
Exxon continues to deny its wrongdoing.
“This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how ‘Exxon Knew’ are wrong in their conclusions,” Todd Spitler, spokesperson for Exxon Mobil, told CNBC.
Spitler pointed to the results of a 2019 case heard before the New York State Supreme Court by Judge Barry Ostrager which did not find the oil and gas company guilty of fraud in its climate change regulation accounting.
“What the evidence at trial revealed is that ExxonMobil executives and employees were uniformly committed to rigorously discharging their duties in the most comprehensive and meticulous manner possible,” Ostrager wrote, and Spitler passed along to CNBC. “The testimony of these witnesses demonstrated that ExxonMobil has a culture of disciplined analysis, planning, accounting, and reporting.”
EV sales kept up their momentum in December 2024, with incentives playing a big role, according to the latest Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book report.
December’s strong EV sales saw an average transaction price (ATP) of $55,544, which helped push the industry-wide ATP higher, according to Kelley Blue Book. The December ATP for an EV was higher year-over-year by 0.8%, slightly below the industry average, and higher month-over-month by 1.1%. Tesla ATPs were higher year-over-year by 10.5%.
Incentives for EVs remained elevated in December, although they were slightly lower month-over-month at 14.3% of ATP, down from 14.7% in November.
EV incentives were higher by an impressive 41% year-over-year and have been above 12% of ATP for six consecutive months. Strong sales incentives, which averaged more than $6,700 per sale in 2024, were one reason EV sales surpassed 1.3 million units last year, according to Cox Automotive, a new record for volume and share.
(My colleague Jameson Dow reported yesterday, “In 2024, the world sold 3.5 million more EVs than it did in the previous year … This increase is larger than the 3.2 million increase in EV sales from the previous year – meaning that EV sales aren’t just up, but that the rate of growth is itself increasing.”)
Kelley Blue Book estimated that in December, approximately 84,000 vehicles – or 5.6% of total sales – transacted at prices higher than $80,000 – the highest volume ever. KBB lumps gas cars and EVs together into this luxury vehicle category, so this is where Tesla Cybertruck is slotted.
However, Tesla bundles sales figures of Cybertruck with Model S, Model X, and Tesla Semi(!) into a category it calls “other models,” so we don’t know for sure exactly how many Cybertrucks Tesla sold in Q4, much less in December. However, Electrek‘s Fred Lambert estimates between 9,000 and 12,000 Cybertrucks were sold in Q4, and that’s not a stellar sales figure.
What will January bring when it comes to EV ATPs? What about tax credits? Check back in a month and I’ll fill you in.
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Tesla is now claiming that Cybertruck was the ‘best-selling electric pickup in US’ last year despite not even reporting the number of deliveries.
There’s a lot of context needed here.
As we often highlighted, Tesla is sadly one of, if not the most, opaque automakers regarding sales reports.
Tesla doesn’t break down sales per model or even region.
For comparison, here’s Ford’s Q4 2024 sales report compared to Tesla’s:
You could argue that Tesla has fewer models than Ford, and that’s true, but Tesla’s report literally has two lines despite having six different models.
There’s no reason not to offer a complete breakdown like all other automakers other than trying to make it hard to verify the health of each vehicle program.
This has been the case with the Cybertruck. Tesla is bundling its Cybertruck deliveries with Model S, Model X, and Tesla Semi deliveries.
Despite this lack of disclosure, Tesla has been able to claim that the Cybertruck has become “the best-selling electric pickup truck” in the US in 2024:
It very well might be true. Ford disclosed 33,510 F-150 Lightning truck deliveries in the US in 2024 while most estimates are putting Cybertruck deliveries at around 40,000 units.
Those are global deliveries, but Tesla only delivered the Cybertruck in the US, Canada, and Mexico in 2024, and most of the deliveries are believed to be in the US.
However, there’s essential context needed here, as we highlighted in our recent ‘Tesla Cybertruck sales are disastrous‘ article.
First off, Tesla had a backlog of over 1 million reservations for the Cybertruck that it has been building since 2019. This led many to believe Tesla already had years of demand baked in for the truck and that production would be the constraint.
However, based on estimates, again, because Tesla refuses to disclose the data, Cybertruck deliveries were either flat or down in Q4 versus Q3 despite Tesla introducing cheaper versions of the vehicle and ramping up production.
Again, that’s after just about 40,000 deliveries.
Furthermore, with almost 11,000 deliveries in Q4 in the US, Ford more likely than not outsold Cybertruck with the F-150 Lightning in Q4.
Electrek’s Take
Tesla is in damage control here. There’s no doubt that it is having issues selling the Cybertruck.
Inventory is full of Cybertrucks and Tesla is now discounting them and offering free lifetime Supercharging.
Tesla is great at ramping up production, and it’s clear the Cybertruck is not production-constrained anymore. It is demand-constrained despite having over 1 million reservations.
Again, those reservations were made before Tesla unveiled the production version, which happened to have less range and cost significantly more.
The upcoming cheaper single motor version should help with demand, but I have serious doubts Tesla can ramp this program up to more than 100,000 units in the US.
As a reminder, Tesla installed a production capacity of 250,000 units annually and Musk said he could see Tesla selling 500,000 Cybertrucks per year.
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