Exxon predicted global warming with remarkable accuracy years ago, study shows
Gas prices are displayed at an Exxon gas station on July 29, 2022 in Houston, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
Three academics from Harvard and the University of Potsdam in Germany published a study in the journal Science on Thursday providing evidence that Exxon Mobil, the oil and gas behemoth with a current market capitalization of $466 billion, predicted global warming with incredible accuracy in a series of internal reports and messages starting in the 1970s.
“Specifically, what’s new here is that we put a number on – and paint a picture of – what Exxon knew and when,” said study co-author Geoffrey Supran, who worked as a research associate at Harvard when he did this work.
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“We now have airtight, unimpeachable evidence that ExxonMobil accurately predicted global warming years before it turned around and publicly attacked climate science and scientists. Our findings show that ExxonMobil’s public denial of climate science contradicted its own scientists’ data,” Supran told CNBC. “This corroborates and adds statistical precision to the prior conclusions of scholars, journalists, lawyers, and politicians.”
The phrase and hashtag “ExxonKnew” have become a rallying cry after previous reporting from Inside Climate News and others showing that Exxon publicly contradicted its own understanding of climate science.
Exxon Mobil says the “ExxonKnew” movement is a “coordinated campaign” working to “stigmatize” the oil company, “creating the false appearance that ExxonMobil has misrepresented its company research and investor disclosures on climate change to the public.”
Climate activists protest on the first day of the Exxon Mobil trial outside the New York State Supreme Court building on October 22, 2019 in New York City.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
It all started with a tweet
The catalyst for the research was a viral tweet, Supran told CNBC.
Stefan Rahmstorf, a physics professor at the University of Potsdam, saw a global warming predictive chart from Exxon Mobil that Supran and Harvard professor Naomi Oreskes had previously discovered, and overlaid actual historical data on top of Exxon’s.
“The overlap was startling,” Supran said and when Rahmstorf blogged and tweeted about it, the results got a lot of attention, “by the standards of climate science on Twitter anyway,” Supran told CNBC.
The three academics then realized that the accuracy of Exxon’s climate’s projections hadn’t been formally studied, and teamed up to write this report. They were surprised to discover is the extent and accuracy of Exxon’s knowledge of climate science.
“It was startling to plot all of the company’s projections onto one graph and find them all line up so tightly around the real-world temperature rise that has ensued since their reports. That gave me pause, seeing quantitatively that Exxon didn’t just know some climate science, they helped advance it,” Supran told CNBC. “They didn’t just vaguely know ‘something’ about global warming decades ago, they knew as much as independent academic and government scientists did. Arguably, they knew all they needed to know.”
According to their research, the academics found that between 63% and 83% of the climate projections Exxon made were accurate in predicting future climate change and global warming. Exxon predicted that climate change would cause global warming of 0.20° ± 0.04 degrees Celsius per decade, which is the same as academic and governmental predictions that came out between 1970 and 2007.
The study in Science builds on work done by investigative journalists at Inside Climate News back in 2015 and Democratic lawmakers at the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, among many others.
Exxon continues to deny its wrongdoing.
“This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how ‘Exxon Knew’ are wrong in their conclusions,” Todd Spitler, spokesperson for Exxon Mobil, told CNBC.
Spitler pointed to the results of a 2019 case heard before the New York State Supreme Court by Judge Barry Ostrager which did not find the oil and gas company guilty of fraud in its climate change regulation accounting.
“What the evidence at trial revealed is that ExxonMobil executives and employees were uniformly committed to rigorously discharging their duties in the most comprehensive and meticulous manner possible,” Ostrager wrote, and Spitler passed along to CNBC. “The testimony of these witnesses demonstrated that ExxonMobil has a culture of disciplined analysis, planning, accounting, and reporting.”
Environment
Switzerland killed study proving upgrading to an electric car is good for the environment
In a concerning series of poor decisions, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) decided to bury a study it had ordered and paid $120,000 for, as it confirmed that upgrading an internal combustion engine (ICE) car to an electric vehicle is beneficial for the environment.
Back in 2022, SFOE commissioned Infras, a reputable research firm, to answer a straightforward question: When does it make sense, from a climate perspective, to replace a gasoline car with an electric one?
It’s not a bad question.
If you are considering buying a new car, it is better for the environment to opt for an electric one. Countless studies have confirmed this over the years. The degree to which it is more beneficial varies based on how much you drive and if it is charged with renewable energy, but it is significantly better.
But due to the high environmental impact of manufacturing a new vehicle, some are debating whether it’s possibly better to drive your old beater until it completely falls apart rather than buying a new EV.
The Federal Office of Energy decided to answer that question by ordering a study worth 100,000 Swiss francs.
When the report landed in fall 2024, the verdict was clear: replacing over 90% of existing petrol/diesel cars with an equal-sized EV would save CO₂ immediately, except for vehicles that hardly ever leave the driveway.
However, the only reason we are aware of it now is that Republik, a Swiss online investigative journalism magazine, managed to obtain a copy through freedom of information requests.
Instead of publishing the study, the Federal Office of Energy decided to bury it.
Why? It’s unclear.
When asked now, they say that they have doubts about the results, but Republik followed with more freedom of information requests for emails discussing the study after Infras delivered it, and it tells a different story.
The publication reports on the communications from the SFOE staff:
The topic is “potentially sensitive,” the project manager wrote to various employees at the beginning of December 2024 after internal discussions, noting that the recommendations “could be misinterpreted” at a time when the federal administration “tends to be perceived rather negatively.” The study is “simply academic,” replied the head of communications at the Federal Office of Energy. In reality, no one will consider whether to replace their five-year-old combustion engine with an electric car “from a climate perspective.” One must be careful not to accuse the Federal Office of Energy of making “elitist recommendations” along the lines of “if there’s no bread, then eat cake.”
The conversation is particularly unusual, considering the study’s goal was to inform buyers of the potential environmental impact of upgrading to an electric car, and they now had the answer.
Now, they didn’t want them to have that information?
Switzerland had a goal of 50% of new cars sold in the country to be electric this year, but it is currently at about 30%.
Electrek’s Take
Great journalism work by Republik, but terrible work by the Swiss government and bureaucrats.
The science is clear: they are a net positive for the environment compared to vehicles that burn fossil fuel.
I have been reporting on and promoting electric vehicles for over a decade now. I didn’t think that in 2025 we would still be fighting against propaganda against that simple fact, but here we are.
There’s clearly still a lot of work to do.
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The 2026 Chevy Silverado EV has officially arrived. With a range of up to 493 miles, the electric pickup is built for the long haul. It can tow up to 12,500 lbs, sprint from 0 to 60 mph in under 4.5 seconds, and now features a rugged new Trail Boss trim with 775 hp and more off-road capability than ever.
2026 Chevy Silverado EV prices and range by trim
Chevy is crushing it right now. After surpassing Ford, Chevy is now the fastest-growing domestic EV brand in the US.
Thanks to the new Silverado, Equinox, and Blazer EVs, it’s actually closing the gap with Tesla. With the new and improved 2026 models now available, Chevy could gain even more ground into the end of the year.
Last month, Chevrolet introduced a new Trail Boss trim for the 2026 Silverado EV, boasting 725 horsepower and several off-road upgrades.
The new Silverado EV Trail Boss “gives customers an option that builds on our strong truck pedigree, high electric range and off-road capability,” according to Scott Bell, Chevy’s vice president.
With a 2″ lift, the new trim offers 24% higher ground clearance than the base version. It also gains new features, like Terrain Mode and a fine-tuned suspension for added capability.
Adding to the Silverado EV’s already sleek look, the flagship model gains trim-exclusive design elements, including Trail Boss badging inside and out, 35″ all-terrain tires, a high-angle front end design, and red tow hooks.
Like the base Silverado EV LT, the Trail Boss edition is available with Chevy’s Multi-Flex Midgate (shown below). The flexible bed provides up to 10 feet and 10 inches of total space to fit kayaks, camping gear, and more.
With the extended-range battery, the 2026 Chevy Silverado EV Trail Boss edition can tow up to 12,500 lbs and has a maximum payload of 2,100 lbs. It also delivers an impressive up to 760 horsepower and 775 lb-ft of torque.
Using Wide Open Watts mode unlocks maximum horsepower and torque, enabling a 0 to 60 mph sprint in just 4.5 seconds.
The electric truck is just as impressive inside as it is on the outside. A 17.7″ touchscreen infotainment and an 11″ driver display come as standard with Google built-in.
You can also add a 14″ diagonal Head-Up Display (HUD) and GM’s Super Cruise driver assist tech. According to Chevy, Super Cruise is available when towing on the LT and Trail Boss trims.
Chevy slashed prices across the board with the 2026 Work Truck trim listed at a base price of just $54,895, $2,200 less than the outgoing model.
| 2026 Chevy Silverado EV Trim | Battery Pack | Range | Starting MSRP (includes $2,095 DFC) |
| Work Truck | Standard | 286 miles (EPA-estimated) | $54,895 |
| Extended | 424 miles (EPA-estimated) | $68,295 | |
| Max | 493 miles (EPA-estimated) | $76,295 | |
| LT | Standard | 283 miles (EPA-estimated) | $62,995 |
| Extended | 410 miles (EPA-estimated) | $71,195 | |
| Max | 478 miles (GM-estimated) | $91,295 | |
| Trail Boss | Extended | 410 miles (EPA-estimated) | $72,095 |
| Max | 478 miles (GM-estimated) | $88,695 |
The 2026 Chevy Silverado EV LT is about $10,000 cheaper than the outgoing version. It’s now available, starting at just $62,995 with up to 283 miles of range. The Extended and Max Range battery packs, with EPA-estimated ranges of 410 miles and 478 miles, respectively, start at $68,295 and $76,295.
You can snag the new Trail Boss trim for $72,095 with a range of 410 miles. Like the LT, the Max battery pack provides 478 miles range, starting at $88,695.
If you’re looking for something a little smaller, the Chevy Equinox EV, or “America’s most affordable 315+ mile range EV,” starts at just $34,995 with leases as low as $289 per month.
Looking to test one out for yourself? With the 2026 models rolling out, Chevy is offering big discounts, including 0% financing or a $3,000 cash bonus on 2025 model years. You can use our links below to find Chevy Silverado, Equinox, and Blazer EVs in your area.
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