WASHINGTON – The probe into classified documents found in President Joe Bidens possession is a political embarrassment for him and will undercut Democrat criticisms of former president Donald Trump, who is being investigated for his own mishandling of sensitive material.
But while the furore may make Mr Bidens expected bid for re-election in 2024 bumpier and give Republicans plenty of ammunition, it is unlikely to be a major campaign issue that sways voters, say experts.
The Biden case echoed the seizure of classified documents from Mr Trumps Mar-a-Lago property in Florida, but Democrats and Biden officials have argued strenuously that they are not equivalent.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that Mr Biden had cooperated with the Department of Justice (DOJ) and that his team had informed the National Archives once they discovered a small number of documents in his possession in a think-tank office in Washington and at his home in Delaware, and turned them over shortly afterwards.
Mr Trump, in contrast, resisted turning over hundreds of documents that the authorities retrieved only after a subpoena and a raid.
Still, Mr Bidens carelessness makes it harder for him to criticise Mr Trump without caveats and Americans not familiar with the details of the cases might view them similarly.
University of New Haven political scientist Patricia Crouse told The Straits Times: In Bidens case, people will probably view it as just an oversight or accidental, and they may start to look at what Trump did in the same way even though the cases are definitely not equivalent. If the conservative media spin it that way, it could undermine the Trump investigation.
Dr Crouse said she does not think this would have an impact on the next presidential election.
Mr Trump has thrown his hat in the ring for 2024, while Mr Biden has hinted at a re-election campaign but not formally unveiled one yet.
The American electorate has notoriously short memories, and I dont see this being a major campaign issue for either side. Disapproval among Republicans for Biden is probably already as low as it can go, she said.
Political scientist Chris Haynes, also from the University of New Haven, said: I really dont think this moves the needle much for independent voters or Democrats, but its something that Republicans can definitely make a lot of hay out of.
Republicans have the majority in the House of Representatives, and have vowed to open investigations into Mr Biden.
It also puts a damper on the Biden teams ebullience following the better-than-expected Democratic showing in the November midterm elections and amid slowing inflation.
Dr Haynes said the case might get Democratic elites to reconsider Mr Biden as the partys nominee for 2024.
I think it might give a lot of them a little bit of pause. It may not convince them that he cant run or shouldnt run, but it might get them to rethink whether or not he really is in the best interest of the Democratic Party, he said. More On This Topic Biden aides find second batch of classified documents at new location Biden versus Trump: What is the difference between the two classified records cases? Democrats are also nervous about a potential rerun of the controversy over 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clintons handling of her e-mails, with some criticising media outlets for not putting the story in proper context and blowing it out of proportion.
But the appointment of a special counsel, former prosecutor and Trump nominee Robert Hur, to oversee the Biden probe could also lend credibility to the Trump investigation, by showing that the DOJ is impartial, said experts.
You can see how some segments of our population could probably take solace in the fact that we have a Justice Department that is not only willing to investigate Trump, but also investigate its own president, said Dr Haynes.
Said Dr Crouse: I think (Attorney-General) Merrick Garland appointing a special counsel to take over the investigation does help protect the integrity of the DOJ and shows there is no double standard when it comes to Biden and Trump. More On This Topic Special counsel to probe Bidens handling of government documents Donald Trump 2024: The legal woes of the former US president
“We sat in the yard from 8am to 5pm under the sun with no water or food.”
Sixteen-year-old Mohammed* was separated from his mother by Israeli forces as his family tried to flee northern Gaza.
Mohammed’s mother was taken to a “sandy pit” with other women and children and sat in the heat for hours before the group were released and told to move south. She took this video as she waited.
Mohammed and his mother are among tens of thousands of Palestinians who have been forced to flee northern Gaza in the past few weeks, as Israel’s military assault against Hamas has intensified.
Using geolocated videos, an interview with a teenage boy held in a school by Israeli forces and evacuation orders issued by the military, Sky News has investigated the conditions that some civilians have faced while leaving.
Our analysis of the evacuation orders reveals that over the course of five days in mid-October, the Israeli military ordered the evacuation of 90% of the North Gaza governorate – an area half the size of Manchester. The UN says within two weeks in October alone, 60,000 people were displaced from North Gaza.
It comes as experts told Sky News Israel has a responsibility as the occupying power to look after civilians, “especially those civilians it may move for military reasons”.
In response to our report, the IDF said it makes “every effort to prevent harm to uninvolved civilians” and takes “additional measures” alongside evacuation maps to move civilians to safer areas.
It said: “Extensive efforts are being made to identify each individual examined and to detain only those who are terror operatives or suspected of being involved in terrorist activities”. It added that those who are not involved are released “as soon as possible” and IDF protocols are to “treat detainees with dignity”.
Videos show mass evacuations
Northern Gaza has become the focus of Israel’s military efforts in the strip. It says it aims to destroy Hamas who they say are regrouping in the north.
Sky News geolocated 17 videos and images taken by civilians, soldiers and shared by the IDF showing mass evacuations and detentions in northern Gaza posted online in the past three weeks.
The footage below shows hundreds of civilians fleeing on foot. Taken from an Israeli armoured vehicle, women and children are seeing carrying their belongings. It offers a glimpse into the scale of the evacuations taking place in the north.
We mapped the locations of these videos to an area just north of the Indonesian Hospital. The IDF has also published multiple videos online in the past two weeks showing its efforts to help civilians leave.
But other footage, geolocated to a similar area, captures a different part of the IDFs operation.
One video, posted online on 23 October, shows at least 23 Palestinian men barefoot, blindfolded, dressed in white suits and led away by Israeli soldiers.
The IDF had said in the days previously, that its forces had been operating against “terrorists” in the area. But the exact circumstances of this video are unclear.
Defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says that while it’s not “unreasonable” to separate people for interrogation in a counter-terrorist operation, there are conditions.
He said: “They have to be interrogated properly. They can’t be held indefinitely. They have to have some form of representation and evidence has to be produced. Simply taking all the men away and locking them up is strictly against the laws of war and the Geneva Convention.”
In response, the IDF said recently its forces have been operating in Jabalia in northern Gaza against “terrorist infrastructure” and Hamas militants and has detained and questioned “individuals suspected of involvement in terrorist activities”.
It added that “relevant suspects are transferred for continued detention and investigation in Israel” and those who are not involved are released, adding that individuals detained are treated “in accordance with international law”.
Teenager separated from family
Mohammed is among Palestinians who have been separated from their family during evacuation. With his parents, the family started their journey out of northern Gaza on 22 October after an Israeli evacuation order for Beit Lahia was issued that morning.
Mohammed said they walked from a house they were staying at near the Kamal Adwan Hospital and headed towards the Indonesian Hospital. His mother said casualties were “flooding” in and out of the hospital and described it as “the most terrifying scene ever”.
Mohammed said: “The soldiers were laughing at us and hurling insults as we walked among them… When we arrived at the Indonesian hospital, the solders separated the men from the women and put them in a school and made the women continue walking along Salah al Din Road.
“I’m 16 years old, I’m still young. I continued walking with my mother, but the soldier ordered me in Arabic to go to the school.
“My mother told me, ‘don’t answer him and keep walking with me. I can’t leave you alone’. My father went, but I was still walking with my mother. But then the soldier raised his weapon at me and said to me, ‘I told you to go the school’.”
Mohammed and his father were taken to the al Kuwait School next to the hospital where they were ordered to sit outside for nine hours. His mother, separated from her son, was told to continue walking towards the Salah al Din Road.
He said: “The army was summoning 10 people then 10 more for examination for security… they put them in white uniforms blindfolded and walked barefoot the soldiers beat them if they fell.”
With a group of women and children, Mohammed’s mother was taken to a sandy area just off the Salah al Din Road where they sat in the sun for hours before eventually being released and walking to Gaza City. Three of the videos we geolocated were taken by Mohammed’s mother, 800m south of the Indonesian Hospital.
She told Sky News: “I filmed everything. I don’t know why I did it, I just wanted to show my son and husband what we were experiencing when I was reunited with them.”
Mohammed and his father were released separately that evening. He says he walked for five hours with no clothes to get to Gaza City, where he found his parents. They are unsure when or if they will be able to return safely to the north.
In response, the IDF said it addresses and examines events that deviated from IDF values through “command and disciplinary measures”. It said requested details necessary to examine the claim “were not provided” and therefore are unable to further review them.
Journey to Mawasi over 16km
The Israeli military has urged civilians to go to al Mawasi – a strip of land on the coast in southern Gaza which it deems a “humanitarian zone”. The United Nations humanitarian agency has said Gaza’s population of 2.3 million is increasingly concentrated in al Mawasi.
The military has frequently posted evacuation maps online – telling civilians which zones to leave and where they should go.
These maps are not the only form of evacuation notices issued by the IDF, who also use other methods like leaflets. But the Israeli military says they are created to minimise civilian casualties and Gazans are often told to refer to them.
Since the start of October, our analysis found the IDF’s Arabic spokesperson has posted three evacuation maps for northern Gaza – on 7, 8 and 12 October.
Two of the maps, posted on 7 and 8 October, show the same area, covering the majority of North Gaza governorate. The third map, posted on 12 October, covers the neighbourhood of Jabalia. Sky News compared these maps with UN maps of Gaza’s official administrative boundaries.
It is possible that the IDF has issued more evacuation orders in the period we analysed using maps and other methods which were not posted online. Our analysis is based on the information they have posted on their social media accounts.
Our analysis found that the areas evacuated between 7 and 12 October encompass 90% of the North Gaza governorate. The UN told Sky News that an estimated 90,000 people remain in the region.
Of the three maps we found, only one of them details the time period in which civilians were safe to travel on the given route. The other two do not provide a length of the evacuation order or an expiry date.
In response, the IDF said since the start of the war over two million evacuation notifications have been distributed, more than 12 million flyers have been dropped, over 100,000 phone calls made and over 800,000 voice messages sent for evacuations.
Measuring the distance between our geolocated videos of the evacuations and the Mawasi zone, we found civilians would have to walk at least 16km to get there.
We also found that the three hospitals that have recently been operational in northern Gaza – Kamal Adwan Hospital, Indonesian Hospital and al Awda Hospital, were included on two of the three evacuation maps we found.
The IDF expanded the area of the al Mawasi zone in October but has been criticised for its lack of support for civilians who have moved there.
Professor Clarke said: “If the Israelis are moving these people out, that can be permissible if they can provide evidence that they are providing for these people at the other end of their journey.
“Now, so far in the evacuations that we’ve seen in the last 12 months in Gaza, that has not been the case. The best the Israelis have managed is to allow the UN and relief organisations to do something. But the fact is it’s their responsibility, not the UN responsibility. It’s their responsibility as the occupying power to look after civilians, particularly civilians it may move for military reasons.”
The IDF said as part of its efforts in the humanitarian zone of al Mawasi, “proactive calls” were made for civilians to evacuate “to an area into which humanitarian aid was transported, including food, water, medical supplies, and shelter equipment, which included the provision of 40,000 tents purchased by the State of Israel”.
It added that due to recent operations in the Jabalia area, “prior notifications indicated the need for evacuation… which also includes several hospitals”. It said officials from the Palestinian healthcare system and international community requested IDF assistance in safely evacuating the hospitals in the area.
The military said “no specific time frame was set for the evacuation of the hospitals, and evacuations have been ongoing”.
There have also been significant changes to infrastructure in northern Gaza. Satellite imagery taken 10 days apart shows the disappearance of two large displacement camps and tents set up in schools.
Over 50 tents in a civilian displacement camp less than 500m north of the Indonesian Hospital is visible in imagery taken on 14 October but is not visible in an image taken on 24 October.
Another camp with over 100 tents less than 2km south is also not visible in the latest imagery of the area.
It’s unclear whether the camp was cleared by the military or civilians. The IDF facilitated evacuations in the area near the Indonesian Hospital within the 10-day period when the images were taken.
It’s not yet clear how long the Israeli offensive in the north will continue for. Aid organisations and members of the international community like the UN Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA), have raised concerns about the humanitarian situation in northern Gaza, citing limited humanitarian aid getting through.
*Mohammed’s name has been changed to protect his identity.
Additional reporting by Celine Alkhaldi, Middle East producer, Michelle Inez Simon, visual investigations producer, Sam Doak, OSINT producer and Adam Parker, OSINT editor.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Up to 4,000 people voting overseas in the US election are having their ballots challenged in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, according to the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU).
They include Selma Aldi, 47, from Camden in north London who received a letter on Sunday explaining that her ballot in the US presidential election is at risk of being rejected.
“It was a shock,” she said. “It was terrifying to be targeted, to potentially lose a right that I hold as very important. It’s even a feeling that someone is questioning my identity.”
The trainee GP, who grew up in Hershey, Pennsylvania left America in 2000 but has voted via absentee ballot in every US presidential election since.
A letter from election officials in Dauphin County outlines the legal challenge. It reads: “The applicant is not registered to vote and therefore is not eligible to vote in Pennsylvania.
“Under Pennsylvania law, it is a felony to permit any person to vote who is not registered.”
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A hearing on the legal challenge is scheduled for Friday, in which Ms Aldi can respond.
Around 2.8 million US citizens living abroad are entitled to vote in the election, no matter where they are on polling day.
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But each state has different procedures and rules on how election paperwork can be sent and received.
But Ari Savitzky, senior staff Attorney at the ACLU said “any attempt to challenge [voters] eligibility is a clear violation of their rights”.
He told Sky News: “Between 3,000 and 4,000 challenges have been filed in Pennsylvania to the absentee ballots of US citizens living abroad.
“For decades, federal law has guaranteed the right of US citizens living abroad to vote in federal elections at their last US residence.
“In addition to being legally baseless, these challenges are an abuse to voters and to election administrators.”
Deborah Hinchey from another voting rights group, All Voting is Local, said: “Election deniers across Pennsylvania have submitted thousands of mass challenges to overseas voters.
“They want to block as many ballots as possible and silence our voices… but these baseless challenges have failed before and the proper checks and balances are in place to make sure they’ll fail again,” she added.
Tonight, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.
You can find out more about Sky News’ coverage here.
An apparent firebomb attack at a DHL warehouse in Birmingham, linked to Russian-backed saboteurs, was believed to be a trial run for a US attack, according to Polish officials.
Poland’s National Prosecutor’s Office has confirmed four arrests after parcels “containing explosives” were allegedly sent via courier companies to countries including the UK.
Counter-terror police in the UK are already investigating whether Russia had any involvement after a suspicious package caught fire at a DHL warehouse in Minworth in July.
Authorities in Germany are also examining several fires thought to have been caused by incendiary devices hidden inside parcels at a warehouse in Leipzig.
Polish Prosecutor Katarzyna Calow-Jaszewska said the latest arrests were related to parcels “which spontaneously ignited or detonated during land and air transport” to EU countries and the UK.
She said the group’s goal was allegedly “to test the transfer channel for such parcels, which were ultimately to be sent to the United States of America and Canada”.
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She added that four people involved in “sabotage” and “of an international nature were detained”.
On Monday, Counter Terrorism Policing said the arrests reported by Polish authorities were not carried out as part of its investigation.
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It coincides with reports by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that the devices were “electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance” and “part of a wider Russian plot”.
Russia has denied involvement. A Kremlin spokesperson told the US newspaper the claims were “traditional unsubstantiated insinuations from the media”.
A suspicious fire took hold in July at a DHL warehouse in the UK after a package arrived by air, but further details about the plane and its flight path are unknown.
Last month British police said their investigation was “being led by officers from the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command with support from colleagues from Counter Terrorism Policing West Midlands”.