Investing in last year’s top 10 stocks is ‘a recipe for disaster,’ expert says
Look back on the best-performing stocks in a given year and you’re likely to see a mixed bag: some mainstays, some breakouts and maybe even a meme stock or two.
Not so in 2022. Each of the 10 top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 index belonged to the same sector: energy.
In a year in which every other sector in the S&P 500 lost money, energy stocks delivered an average return of 59%, with top performer Occidental Petroleum returning 119%.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean you should go out and add any of these stocks to your portfolio now, investing experts say.
Following an overall down year in the market, “don’t chase the few things that have performed well,” Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar, told CNBC Make It. “Doing a complete repositioning of your portfolio is a recipe for disaster.”
Here’s why investing experts say to tread carefully before adding last year’s winners to your portfolio.
You’re historically slightly better off buying losers
The market operates in cycles, and this has been a particularly good one for companies involved in the discovery, transportation and sale of oil and natural gas. Energy prices shot up early in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and the U.S. and EU took steps to curtail Russian energy exports.
But a cyclical market means eventual reversion to the mean. Energy will come back to the pack, and laggards will catch up. There’s no telling when that will actually happen, but historically losers have outperformed winners following a down year.
“If it’s an up year, history says to let winners ride. However if the prior year was down, you’re better off rotating from ‘first’ sectors like energy to ‘worst’ sectors like technology and consumer discretionary,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
By Stovall’s calculations, a “first to worst” rotation has beaten the market 60% of the time since World War II.
That’s isn’t to suggest you shift your entire portfolio into tech, the worst performer in 2022. Rather, it illustrates that the factors that drive certain corners of the market to take off are unpredictable from year to year.
Choose stocks sparingly and carefully
If you’re a long-term investor, financial advisors generally recommend building a broadly diversified portfolio. By spreading your bets across a wide array of asset classes, you decrease the chances that a sharp drop in any one particular investment derails your portfolio’s performance.
For that reason, investors are typically told to steer clear of devoting too much space in their accounts to any one particular stock. Unlike the broad market, which has historically trended upward, any one stock has the potential to go to zero.
If you do want to invest in a few stocks as a complement to your core broad-based investing strategy, ignore which way the market is trending and examine each stock on its own merits, experts say.
“As long-term investors, we don’t try to chase momentum,” said Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar. “We focus on opportunities where the market doesn’t understand the intrinsic value of a company.”
There are plenty of ways to determine a company’s value, and each investor has their favorites. You may want to focus on how a stock trades relative to the company’s earnings or cash flow, for instance.
No matter which measure you choose, the more a company’s stock price has run up, the more likely it is that it’s trading more expensively relative to peers, the broad market and its historical averages. And there tends to be some mean reversion there, too.
Headed into 2022, energy stocks were the most undervalued by Morningstar’s calculations. And after a 59% runup? “It’s the sector we now think is the most overvalued,” Sekera said.
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A dozen Tesla vehicles burned at a store in Toulouse, France. Arson is suspected amid global protests and vandalism attacks against Tesla and Elon Musk.
Last night, a dozen Tesla vehicles burned down at Tesla’s retail and service location in Plaisance-du-Touch near Toulouse, France.
Firefighters arrived on the scene at around 4 a.m. and contained the fire to the vehicles. Eight of them were completely destroyed, and four were greatly damaged. The damages are estimated at over 700,000 euros.
According to the local news (translated from French), the police suspected arson as a hole was found in a fence, and threats had been made over the last few weeks. The Tesla location remained closed all day.
Tesla is currently being protested by anti-fascist groups around the world, especially in the US, where many are targeting Tesla to protest against Elon Musk’s involvement in the US government.
In France, there were a few protests planned, but some extremist groups are calling for widespread arson against Tesla stores:
I won’t share the link to the article since it gives step-by-step instructions on how to burn down Tesla stores without getting caught, but the manifesto explains that they are going after Tesla as a “symbol of capitalism,” although they also list a dozen other reasons including the fact that they think it’s “doable and cheap.”
Electrek’s Take
This is getting nuts. It’s not only dangerous, but it’s also not super effective in achieving the goal they claim to want to achieve.
Have they never heard of insurance? Tesla is having issues selling cars right now. You are burning unsold inventory that they can then claim to their insurance.
Sure, it disrupts their operations for a short period of time, but it’s not worth it.
Their manifesto does say to avoid violence and not to target vehicles owned by individuals – though it doesn’t sound like a strict rule for them, but I think these people are likely going to end up in jail for having achieved nothing.
The protests and boycotts are going strong. You don’t need to burn cars to make yourself heard.
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Environment
Ford F-150 Lightning sales have been falling for months: What’s going on with the EV pickup?
Is Ford’s electric pickup in trouble? Sales have been down for months, and February showed no relief. What’s going on with the Ford F-150 Lightning?
Ford F-150 Lightning sales drop again in February 2025
Ford’s US sales dropped by 9% last month. Although electrified vehicles, including EVs and hybrids, both notched double-digit growth, sales of Ford’s gas-powered (ICE) models, which accounted for over 85% of deliveries, fell nearly 13%.
Hybrids saw higher demand with sales up 27.5% to 15,357, while EV sales increased 15% to 7,326. The Mustang Mach-E was a bright spot with 3,312 models sold in February, up 13% from the prior year.
With 6,841 Mach-Es sold through the first three months of 2025, Ford’s electric crossover SUV remains a top-selling EV in the US.
Ford’s electric pickup didn’t fare as well. F-150 Lightning Sales were down nearly 15% last month with only 2,199 units sold. Through March, Ford has sold 15% fewer Lightning models than it did at this time last year.
Sales of the electric pickup have been slipping for months now. In the final three months of 2024, F-150 Lightning sales were down 10%.
The Lightning, alongside Rivian’s R1T, are no longer the only electric pickups on the market. Ford is facing new competition with the Tesla Cybertruck, Chevy Silverado EV, and GMC Sierra EV, arriving.
According to Cox Automotive, the Tesla Cybertruck slipped past the Lightning to become the fifth best-selling EV in the US last year with nearly 39,000 units sold. Ford’s Lightning was sixth with just over 33,500 models sold.
Ford extended its “Power Promise” promo earlier this year to boost demand, giving EV buyers a Level 2 home charger and other benefits, but Lightning sales are still down.
The American automaker cut Lightning production at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center last year, citing slower-than-expected demand. A new report from Automotive News claims Ford is now ending a pilot program to stock and distribute EVs through regional hubs after it failed to catch on. It was designed to speed up deliveries.
Although Ford plans to launch a smaller midsize electric pickup, it won’t arrive until at least two more years. With new competition, like the Ram 1500 REV and Volkswagen Scout pickup, hitting the market over the next few years, Ford may find it even harder to attract buyers.
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