Investing in last year’s top 10 stocks is ‘a recipe for disaster,’ expert says
Look back on the best-performing stocks in a given year and you’re likely to see a mixed bag: some mainstays, some breakouts and maybe even a meme stock or two.
Not so in 2022. Each of the 10 top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 index belonged to the same sector: energy.
In a year in which every other sector in the S&P 500 lost money, energy stocks delivered an average return of 59%, with top performer Occidental Petroleum returning 119%.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean you should go out and add any of these stocks to your portfolio now, investing experts say.
Following an overall down year in the market, “don’t chase the few things that have performed well,” Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar, told CNBC Make It. “Doing a complete repositioning of your portfolio is a recipe for disaster.”
Here’s why investing experts say to tread carefully before adding last year’s winners to your portfolio.
You’re historically slightly better off buying losers
The market operates in cycles, and this has been a particularly good one for companies involved in the discovery, transportation and sale of oil and natural gas. Energy prices shot up early in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and the U.S. and EU took steps to curtail Russian energy exports.
But a cyclical market means eventual reversion to the mean. Energy will come back to the pack, and laggards will catch up. There’s no telling when that will actually happen, but historically losers have outperformed winners following a down year.
“If it’s an up year, history says to let winners ride. However if the prior year was down, you’re better off rotating from ‘first’ sectors like energy to ‘worst’ sectors like technology and consumer discretionary,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
By Stovall’s calculations, a “first to worst” rotation has beaten the market 60% of the time since World War II.
That’s isn’t to suggest you shift your entire portfolio into tech, the worst performer in 2022. Rather, it illustrates that the factors that drive certain corners of the market to take off are unpredictable from year to year.
Choose stocks sparingly and carefully
If you’re a long-term investor, financial advisors generally recommend building a broadly diversified portfolio. By spreading your bets across a wide array of asset classes, you decrease the chances that a sharp drop in any one particular investment derails your portfolio’s performance.
For that reason, investors are typically told to steer clear of devoting too much space in their accounts to any one particular stock. Unlike the broad market, which has historically trended upward, any one stock has the potential to go to zero.
If you do want to invest in a few stocks as a complement to your core broad-based investing strategy, ignore which way the market is trending and examine each stock on its own merits, experts say.
“As long-term investors, we don’t try to chase momentum,” said Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar. “We focus on opportunities where the market doesn’t understand the intrinsic value of a company.”
There are plenty of ways to determine a company’s value, and each investor has their favorites. You may want to focus on how a stock trades relative to the company’s earnings or cash flow, for instance.
No matter which measure you choose, the more a company’s stock price has run up, the more likely it is that it’s trading more expensively relative to peers, the broad market and its historical averages. And there tends to be some mean reversion there, too.
Headed into 2022, energy stocks were the most undervalued by Morningstar’s calculations. And after a 59% runup? “It’s the sector we now think is the most overvalued,” Sekera said.
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A fully electric Isuzu pickup truck? That’s right. The D-MAX EV is Isuzu’s first electric pickup, and it will be rolling in the next few months. After kicking off mass production, Isuzu said the new EV pickup will “match the performance of existing diesel models,” boasting high towing capacity and payload.
Isuzu’s first electric pickup is launching in 2025
Isuzu announced on Tuesday that the D-MAX EV has officially entered mass production. The company has started building left-hand drive models, which will be shipped to Europe in the third quarter of 2025.
By the end of the year, production of right-hand drive models will begin for the UK, with sales expected to start in 2026.
The electric pickup is nearly identical to Isuzu’s popular gas-powered D-MAX, but swaps the diesel powertrain for a pair of electric motors. The D-MAX EV features new e-Axles, one on the front and the other at the rear, for a full-time 4WD system.
The dual-motor powertrain enables it to match the performance of existing diesel models, with a combined 188 hp (140 kW) and a maximum torque of 240 lb-ft (325 Nm).
It can also tow over 7,700 lbs (3,500 kg) with a maximum payload of over 2,200 lbs (1,010 kg). That’s about the same as the D-MAX diesel, which has a 3,500 kg towing capacity and a payload capacity of up to 1,200 kg.
Powered by a 66.9 kWh battery, Isuzu’s first electric pickup boasts a driving range of up to 263 km (162 miles) on the WLTP. In the city, it can have a driving range of up to 224 miles (361 km).
| Isuzu D-Max EV specs | |
| Drive System | Full-time 4×4 |
| Battery Type | Lithium-ion |
| Battery Capacity | 66.9 kWh |
| Max Output | 130 kW (174 hp) |
| Max Torque | 325 Nm |
| Max Speed | Over 130 km/h (+80 mph) |
| Max Payload | 1,000 kg (+2,200 lbs) |
| Max Towing Capacity | 3.5t (+7,700 lbs) |
Built for on and off-road performance, the rugged electric pickup features over 8″ (210 mm) of ground clearance with a wading depth of nearly 24″ (600 mm).
Although prices have not been announced, the D-MAX EV is expected to start slightly higher than the diesel model, which has a base price of around € 36,500 ($41,600).
Isuzu’s popular D-MAX is sold in over 100 countries, including Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Central and South America. The electric version will arrive in Europe in the next few months, followed by the UK and other regions in 2026.
The electric D-MAX will compete with the Toyota Hilux, Ford Ranger, and other electric pickups, such as Geely’s Radar R6, BYD’s Shark, and Ford’s F-150 Lightning.
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For the first time in five years, a Tesla insider required to report Tesla stock transactions bought stocks rather than selling them.
But the transaction is so small that it makes the whole situation hilarious.
Insiders in public companies are top executives and board members who are required to report to the SEC any transaction related to the company’s stock.
For Tesla, it has become a running joke that insiders only sell, never buy the stock.
This has been true without exception for years.
We don’t know as much about executives as Tesla has a very short top executive bench who are required to file transactions. However, when it comes to its board members, they have been selling at an impressive rate.
We recently reported on Kimball Musk, Elon’s brother, and Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Taneja Vaibhav recently selling ahead of a recent drop in the company’s stock price.
Tesla’s chairwoman, Robyn Denholm, also sold $33 million worth of Tesla shares in February and over $100 million in the 3 months prior.
However, we now have confirmation that a Tesla board member is buying, rather than selling.
Joe Gebbia, the Airbnb co-founder who joined Tesla’s board in 2022, confirmed that he bought 4,000 shares in Tesla last week worth about $1 million:
Electrek’s Take
Gebbia is estimated to be worth over $7 billion. Therefore, his purchase of $1 million worth of Tesla stock would be equivalent to my buying a fractional share in Tesla.
Furthermore, the disclosure confirmed that despite being on the board for the last 3 years, Gebbia owned only 111 shares in Tesla before the transaction.
That’s quite the show of confidence in Tesla.
Thie whole situation with the board is disappointing. Tesla’s core business is melting. The company reported its worst quarter in years last week, and the stock surged 20%.
None of it makes any sense.
The board is sitting on its hands while the most powerful force accelerating the advent of electric transport is being destroyed in favor of nonsensical predictions about the potential of solving self-driving and humanoid robots.
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Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Venmo, long a centerpiece of PayPal‘s growth story but often criticized for its lack of monetization, is becoming a bigger contributor to the business.
PayPal said Tuesday in its first-quarter earnings release that revenue at Venmo increased 20% year-over-year in the first quarter, though the company didn’t provide a dollar figure. PayPal acquired Venmo in 2013 through the acquisition of parent company Braintree.
While it’s long been a popular consumer service for sending money to friends, Venmo’s ability to drive meaningful revenue has been a major question mark for investors, especially as competition from rivals like Zelle and Square Cash has intensified.
Venmo’s total payment volume rose 10% from a year earlier, but revenue grew twice as fast, reflecting the business opportunity. Venmo only gets revenue from specific products like Pay with Venmo at online checkout, Venmo debit cards, and instant transfers, but not from peer-to-peer payments.
Ahead of the earnings report, Jefferies analysts noted that Venmo revenue growth appeared to be “accelerating sharply” and flagged its rising contribution to branded checkout as a key area to watch. Compass Point analysts similarly said that while competition from Zelle and Square Cash remains fierce, Venmo’s traction with debit cards and online checkout could “open up new monetization avenues” if adoption trends continue.
The company added nearly 2 million first-time PayPal and Venmo debit card users during the quarter, and total debit card payment volume across PayPal and Venmo climbed more than 60%. Meanwhile, Pay with Venmo transaction volume surged 50% year over year, and Venmo debit card monthly active users grew about 40%.
PayPal reported better-than-expected earnings for the quarter but missed on revenue. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty.
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