Investing in last year’s top 10 stocks is ‘a recipe for disaster,’ expert says
Look back on the best-performing stocks in a given year and you’re likely to see a mixed bag: some mainstays, some breakouts and maybe even a meme stock or two.
Not so in 2022. Each of the 10 top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 index belonged to the same sector: energy.
In a year in which every other sector in the S&P 500 lost money, energy stocks delivered an average return of 59%, with top performer Occidental Petroleum returning 119%.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean you should go out and add any of these stocks to your portfolio now, investing experts say.
Following an overall down year in the market, “don’t chase the few things that have performed well,” Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar, told CNBC Make It. “Doing a complete repositioning of your portfolio is a recipe for disaster.”
Here’s why investing experts say to tread carefully before adding last year’s winners to your portfolio.
You’re historically slightly better off buying losers
The market operates in cycles, and this has been a particularly good one for companies involved in the discovery, transportation and sale of oil and natural gas. Energy prices shot up early in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and the U.S. and EU took steps to curtail Russian energy exports.
But a cyclical market means eventual reversion to the mean. Energy will come back to the pack, and laggards will catch up. There’s no telling when that will actually happen, but historically losers have outperformed winners following a down year.
“If it’s an up year, history says to let winners ride. However if the prior year was down, you’re better off rotating from ‘first’ sectors like energy to ‘worst’ sectors like technology and consumer discretionary,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
By Stovall’s calculations, a “first to worst” rotation has beaten the market 60% of the time since World War II.
That’s isn’t to suggest you shift your entire portfolio into tech, the worst performer in 2022. Rather, it illustrates that the factors that drive certain corners of the market to take off are unpredictable from year to year.
Choose stocks sparingly and carefully
If you’re a long-term investor, financial advisors generally recommend building a broadly diversified portfolio. By spreading your bets across a wide array of asset classes, you decrease the chances that a sharp drop in any one particular investment derails your portfolio’s performance.
For that reason, investors are typically told to steer clear of devoting too much space in their accounts to any one particular stock. Unlike the broad market, which has historically trended upward, any one stock has the potential to go to zero.
If you do want to invest in a few stocks as a complement to your core broad-based investing strategy, ignore which way the market is trending and examine each stock on its own merits, experts say.
“As long-term investors, we don’t try to chase momentum,” said Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar. “We focus on opportunities where the market doesn’t understand the intrinsic value of a company.”
There are plenty of ways to determine a company’s value, and each investor has their favorites. You may want to focus on how a stock trades relative to the company’s earnings or cash flow, for instance.
No matter which measure you choose, the more a company’s stock price has run up, the more likely it is that it’s trading more expensively relative to peers, the broad market and its historical averages. And there tends to be some mean reversion there, too.
Headed into 2022, energy stocks were the most undervalued by Morningstar’s calculations. And after a 59% runup? “It’s the sector we now think is the most overvalued,” Sekera said.
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Don’t miss: Think twice before buying the top 10 ETFs of 2022: ‘It doesn’t work that way in investing’
Aviation startup ZeroAvia says it’s been granted a “raft” of 45 new patents key to the development of practical large hydrogen aviation engines – and the company says it has 200 more H-related patents in the pipeline!
The news comes just weeks after ZeroAvia and Scottish regional airline Loganair announced a new, hydrogen-electric “turboprop” replacement motor capable of up to 5MW of shaft horsepower (~6,700 hp). United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) no. 12,341,225 covers an integrated hydrogen-electric engine design land is key to the development of a modular multi-MW hydrogen-electric engine for the ATR 42 and 72 model aircraft — which Loganair owns more than twenty of.
ATR isn’t the only potential customer ZerAvia is eyeballing, either. Despite hydrogen losing ground on utility-scale projects and more companies realizing that it’s “impossible” for hydrogen to compete as a transportation fuel, the fuel still seems to have some practical application in the aviation space. Both Airbus and Boeing have advanced plans and IP for hydrogen-ready airframes in recent weeks, as well, making the IP for large hydrogen-powered aviation engines that much more valuable.
“Recent patents filed and granted around hydrogen aviation give a window into an accelerating field of innovation,” explains Val Miftakhov, Founder and CEO, ZeroAvia. “As we see the large airframe manufacturers beginning to compete on technologies for hydrogen aircraft, there is a big opportunity for companies pioneering hydrogen propulsion systems. These are the inventions that will deliver truly clean, more affordable and highly efficient commercial air travel.”
What it’s all about
Like many tech-based startups, securing IP has been an integral part of ZeroAvia’s strategy, with the value of its patents being, essentially, the value of the company. Just as – if not more important to airlines like Loganair, American, and EcoJet, however, are the potential cost-savings of hydrogen compared to conventional aviation fuels like kerosene.
Importantly, these novel engines promise cost reductions for airlines. The substantially lower maintenance needs of hydrogen-electric engines will mean a decrease in maintenance and downtime for an airline’s fleet, with hydrogen fuel also projected to be significantly more cost effective than kerosene over time.
ZEROAVIA
You can read more about the new ZA600 and ZA2000 hydrogen-electric av motors here, and let us know what you think of hydrogen’s chances against traditional, kerosense-based aviation fuels in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: ZeroAvia.
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You might want to hold onto your handlebars for this one – literally. The fashion-forward British electric scooter maker Bo just unveiled what could be the most extreme electric scooter the world has ever seen. Named The Turbo, this standing e-scooter isn’t just playing around with speed – it’s aiming to smash right through it and find out what’s waiting on the other side.
And it all begs the question, “How much is too much?”
When we talk about fast electric scooters, we’re usually in the neighborhood of 50 mph (80 km/h). But the Bo Turbo doubles those numbers.
With 100 mph+ (160+ km/h) top speeds and claimed acceleration that’s faster than a Tesla, this scooter seems to use a design philosophy pulled straight from the playbook of Formula One. Thus, it should come as no surprise that the team behind The Turbo includes engineers with experience from Williams F1 and the Bloodhound Land Speed Record rocket car.
The world’s fastest e-scooter?
Built on the same base chassis as the company’s sleek road-going Bo Model-M, The Turbo takes everything up a notch – actually, several notches. It features a 24,000 W dual-motor powertrain, 1,800 Wh battery, advanced traction control, and a power-to-weight ratio that reportedly beats a Bugatti Veyron.
At full power, the system is capable of propelling riders down a straightaway at three-digit speeds while standing upright. It’s absurd. It’s glorious. It’s gratuitous. It’s a dream. Or it’s a nightmare.
Bo says the machine is already delivering 85+ mph (137+ km/h) in early track testing at Goodwood Motor Circuit and is currently in development to push beyond the 100 mph barrier under Guinness World Record supervision.
And just in case you’re wondering if this is some experimental prototype cooked up in a lab – it’s not. The company is planning a limited run of built-to-order Turbo scooters, starting at a whopping $29,500. The first one is scheduled for delivery to a collector in Madrid during the 2026 Formula One race weekend.
From F1 brake ducts to street scooter DNA
Despite the headline-grabbing speed numbers, there’s a ton of serious engineering going on here. The Turbo uses ram-air intakes based on F1 brake cooling designs to keep the motors and controllers from overheating. The chassis – made from aerospace-grade aluminum and CNC-machined billet parts – is based on Bo’s proven Monocurve platform, the same structure that underpins the Bo Model-M. In fact, that might be the most impressive part of all, that the same chassis used underneath their everyday-ride-it-to-work Bo Model-M scooter is also holding together this 100 mph beast.
Bo’s team insists that despite the monster specs, The Turbo remains “surprisingly rideable.” Professional BMX rider Tre Whyte has piloted over 20 high-speed test runs, with the team now preparing to push the envelope even further.
A wild PR stunt – or something more?
It’s tempting to see The Turbo as just a headline machine (and hey, it works), but Bo says this project is about more than just chasing speed records. According to Bo CEO Oscar Morgan, “The Turbo is part of our mission to elevate these futuristic electric vehicles into the top tier of automotive performance.”
And honestly, they’ve got a point. E-scooters have exploded in popularity as low-speed urban vehicles, but the category rarely gets taken seriously in the performance world, despite the advent of racing leagues. Bo wants to change that – and they’re using motorsport technology to do it.
Electrek’s Take
Is this a practical daily rider? Absolutely not. But that’s not the point.
Bo is doing what so few e-scooter companies are willing to do – pushing boundaries, proving performance, and trying to make scooters feel exciting, not just functional. Whether The Turbo hits 100 mph or not, it’s already helped raise the bar for what electric micromobility can be. And if that means they develop safer and stable ways to build scooters along the way, then all the better.
The fact that they actually plan to sell these is a bit worrying, though the $30k pricetag means the local teens on your street aren’t going to be terrorizing the sidewalks with them. Well, not unless you’ve got an oil sheikh and his teenagers living on your street.
But hey, if you’ve got thirty grand and a need for painful death levels of speed – maybe this is your next toy.
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Environment
Chevron defeats Exxon in dispute over Guyana oil assets, clearing path for Hess acquisition
Chevron has prevailed against Exxon Mobil in a dispute over Hess Corporation’s offshore oil assets in the South American nation of Guyana, Exxon CEO Darren Woods told CNBC’s Becky Quick on Friday.
The ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce in favor of Chevron clears the way for the oil major to complete its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation.
Chevron shares jumped about 3% in premarket trading.
“We disagree with the ICC panel’s interpretation but respect the arbitration and dispute resolution process,” Exxon said in a statement Friday.
The dispute had created significant uncertainty over whether Chevron’s acquisition of Hess would close, weighing on the oil major’s stock performance. The transaction would have failed if Exxon had prevailed.
Exxon and China National Offshore Oil Corporation had filed an arbitration case with the ICC, claiming a right of first refusal over Hess’s assets in the Stabroek Block, an oil development off the coast of Guyana.
Hess has a 30% stake in an oil patch, while Exxon leads the project with a 45% stake and CNOOC maintains 25% stake.
“We welcome Chevron to the venture and look forward to continued industry-leading performance and value creation in Guyana for all parties involved,” Exxon said.
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