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Bitcoin to trade in $15,000-$30,000 range in 2023, Coinshares CSO says

After a tumultuous 2022, crypto investors are trying to figure out when the next bitcoin bull run could be.

Last week, at a crypto conference in St. Moritz, Switzerland, CNBC spoke to industry insiders who painted a picture of 2023 as year of caution. Bitcoin is expected to trade within a range, be sensitive to the macroeconomic situation such as interest rate rises and continue to be volatile. A new bull run is unlikely in 2023.

However, experts are looking to next year and beyond with optimism.

In 2022, the entire cryptocurrency market lost about $1.4 trillion in value with the industry facing liquidity issues and bankruptcies topped off by the collapse of exchange FTX. Contagion spread across the industry.

While bitcoin has gotten a small bump at the start of the year, in line with risk assets like stocks, experts say bitcoin is unlikely to retest its all-time high of just under $69,000 but it may have bottomed.

“I think there’s a little bit more downside, but I don’t think there’s going to be a lot,” Bill Tai, a venture capitalist and crypto veteran told CNBC last week.

“There’s a chance that [bitcoin] kind of has bottomed here,” adding that it could fall as low as $12,000 before jumping back up.

Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares, said bitcoin is likely to be rangebound trading at the lower end between $15,000 and $20,000 and on the upper end between $25,000 to $30,000.

She said a lot of the “forced selling” that happened in 2022 as a result of collapses in the market is now over, but there isn’t much new money coming into bitcoin.

“I don’t think there’s a lot of forced selling remaining, which is optimistic,” Demirors told CNBC Friday. “But again, I think the upside is quite limited, because we also don’t see a lot of new inflows coming in.”

Investors are also keeping one eye on the macroeconomic situation. Bitcoin has proved to be closely correlated to risk assets such as stocks, and in particular, the tech-heavy Nasdaq. These assets are affected by changes in interest rates from the Federal Reserve and other macroeconomic moves. Last year, the Fed embarked on an aggressive interest rate hike path to try to tame inflation, which hurt risk assets along with bitcoin.

Industry insiders said a change in the macro situation could help bitcoin.

Further pain ahead for crypto but bitcoin has been resilient, VC Bill Tai says

“There could be catalysts that we’re not aware of, again, the macro situation and the political environment is fairly uncertain, inflation continuing to run quite hot, I think is a new thing. We haven’t seen that, you know, in 30, 40 years,” Demirors said.

“So who knows, as people look to make allocations going into the new year where crypto will fit into that portfolio?”

Timing the next bitcoin bull run

In CNBC’s interviews, several industry participants spoke about historical bitcoin cycles, which happen roughly every four years. Typically, bitcoin will hit an all time high, then have a massive correction. There will be a bad year and then a year of mild recovery.

Then “halving” will happen. This is when miners, who run specialized machines to effectively validate transactions on the bitcoin networks, see their rewards for mining cut in half. Miners get bitcoin as a reward for validating transactions. The halving, which happens every four years, effectively slows down the supply of bitcoin onto the market. There will ever only be 21 million bitcoin in circulation.

Halving usually precedes a bull run. The next halving event takes place in 2024.

Scaramucci called 2023 a “recovery year” for bitcoin and predicted it could trade at $50,000 to $100,000 in two to three years.

“You are taking on risk but you’re also believing in [bitcoin] adoption. So if we get the adoption right, and I believe we will, this could easily be a fifty to one hundred thousand dollar asset over the next two to three years,” Scaramucci said.

Tai meanwhile said the beginning of a bull run is “probably a year away,” saying the after effects of the FTX collapse might continue to be felt for another six to nine months.

Jean-Baptiste Graftieaux, global CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp, told CNBC last week that the next bull run could come over the next two years, citing rising interest from institutional investors.

However, Demirors warned that the events over 2022 “have caused tremendous reputational damage to the industry and to the asset class,” adding that “it will take some time for that confidence to return.”

Bitcoin bull run will probably come in the next two years, crypto exchange CEO says

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Samsung aims to catch up to Chinese rivals for thin foldable phones as Apple said to enter the fray

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Samsung aims to catch up to Chinese rivals for thin foldable phones as Apple said to enter the fray

Samsung launched the Galaxy Z Fold6 at its Galaxy Unpacked event in Paris. The tech giant said the foldable device is thinner and lighter than its predecessor.

Arjun Kharpal | CNBC

Samsung will unveil a thinner version of its flagship foldable smartphone at a launch likely set to take place next month, as it battles Chinese rivals to deliver the slimmest devices to the market.

Folding phones, which have a single screen that can fold in half, came in focus when Samsung first launched such a device in 2019. But Chinese players, in particular Honor and Oppo, have since aggressively released foldables that are thinner and lighter than Samsung’s offerings.

Why are slim foldables important?

“With foldables, thinness has become more critical than ever because people aren’t prepared to accept the compromise for a thicker and heavier phone to get the real estate that a folding phone can deliver,” Ben Wood, chief analyst at CCS Insight, told CNBC on Thursday.

Honor, Oppo and other Chinese players have used their slim designs to differentiate themselves from Samsung.

Let’s look at a comparison: Samsung’s last foldable from 2024, the Galaxy Z Fold6, is 12.1 millimeter ~(0.48 inches) thick when folded and weighs 239 grams (8.43 oz). Oppo’s Find N5, which was released earlier this year, is 8.93 millimeters thick when closed and weighs 229 grams. The Honor Magic V3, which was launched last year, is 9.2 millimeters when folded and weighs 226 grams.

“Samsung needs to step up” in foldables, Wood said.

And that’s what the South Korean tech giant is planning to do at its upcoming launch, which is likely to take place next month.

“The newest Galaxy Z series is the thinnest, lightest and most advanced foldable yet – meticulously crafted and built to last,” Samsung said in a preview blog post about the phone earlier this month.

But the competition is not letting up. Honor is planning a launch on July 2 in China for its latest folding phone, the Magic V5.

“The interesting thing for Samsung, if they can approach the thinness that Honor has achieved it is will be a significant step up from predecessor, it will be a tangible step up in design,” Wood said.

Despite these advances by way of foldables, the market for the devices has not been as exciting as many had hoped.

CCS Insight said that foldables will account for just 2% of the overall smartphone market this year. Thinner phones may be one way to address the sluggish market, but consumer preferences would also need to change.

“There is a chance that by delivering much thinner foldables that are more akin to the traditional monoblock phone, it will provide an opportunity to turn consumer heads and get them to revisit the idea of having a folding device,” Wood said.

“However, I would caution foldables do remain problematic because in many cases consumers struggle to see why they need a folding device.”

Although the market remains small for foldables compared to traditional smartphones, noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities on Wednesday said Apple  — which has been notably absent from this product line-up — plans to make a folding iPhone starting next year.

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Google looks likely to lose appeal against record $4.7 billion EU fine

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Google looks likely to lose appeal against record .7 billion EU fine

Cheng Xin | Getty Images

Google suffered a setback Thursday after an advisor to the European Union’s top court recommended it dismiss the tech giant’s appeal against a record 4.1-billion-euro ($4.7 billion) antitrust fine.

Juliane Kokott, advocate general at the European Court of Justice, advised the court to throw out Google’s appeal and confirm the fine, which was reduced in 2022 to 4.125 billion euros from 4.34 billion euros previously by the EU’s General Court.

“In her Opinion delivered today, Advocate General Kokott proposes that the Court of Justice dismiss Google’s appeal and, therefore, uphold the judgment of the General Court,” the Luxembourg-based ECJ said in a press release Thursday.

The fine relates to a long-running antitrust case surrounding Google’s Android operating system.

In 2018, the European Commission slapped Google with the record-breaking penalty on the grounds that it abused Android’s mobile dominance to give unfair advantage to its own apps via pre-installation deals with smartphone makers. The Commission is the executive body of the EU.

Google said it was “disappointed” with the ECJ advocate general’s verdict, adding it “would discourage investment in open platforms and harm Android users, partners and app developers.”

“Android has created more choice for everyone and supports thousands of successful businesses in Europe and around the world,” a spokesperson for the company told CNBC via email.

Though the advocate general’s proposal is non-binding, judges tend to follow four out of five such non-binding opinions. The ECJ is expected to deliver a final ruling in the coming months.

AWS' Tanuja Randery on how businesses are using AI

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SpaceX’s Starship explodes during routine test in Texas

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SpaceX's Starship explodes during routine test in Texas

A SpaceX Starship is seen in Boca Chica, Texas in 2023.

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

A SpaceX Starship rocket on Wednesday exploded at the Starbase facility in Texas during routine testing in preparation for a launch flight, according to local authorities and live stream footage.

The rocket “experienced a major anomaly while on a test stand at Starbase” at 11 p.m. local time, SpaceX said on social media, noting “a safety clear area around the site was maintained throughout the operation and all personnel are safe and accounted for.”

Local authorities said that Starship “suffered a catastrophic failure and exploded,” with no injuries reported at the time of writing and an investigation is now underway. Live stream footage of Starbase showed the rocket burst into flame, shooting a large fireball into the sky.

Another Starship launch was expected to take place by the end of this month.

It’s been a tempestuous ride for Elon Musk’s mammoth Starship, after three flight launch attempts devolved in fiery glory and air-traffic stopping debris this year to date. Notably, the rocket model has taken off successfully in previous instances, but its vast scale — standing 120 meters (394 feet) tall when factoring in the Super Heavy booster — has raised concerns over its overall reliability and requirements for orbital refueling once in flight.

Yet Musk has clinched his hopes on Starship as the key vehicle for both NASA’s third and fourth Artemis missions — part of a broader plan to return humans to the Moon — due to take place over 2027-2028. The rocket is also set to play a role in launching the Starlab private space station in the transition to commercial space orbiting labs once the International Space Station retires after 2030.

Critically, Starship is also central to Musk’s — and former ally U.S. President Donald Trump’s — broader ambitions to colonize Mars. The rocket is set to ferry Optimus robots to the red planet by the end of 2026, with Musk in March saying, “If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”

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