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Pedestrians walk past the Tesla Motors official authorized car dealer store in Hong Kong.

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Is the first electric-vehicle recession here, or coming soon?

As electric-car stocks plummeted in late 2022, the rout evoked comparisons to the dot-com stock bust two decades ago. Like the internet industry then, the EV industry boasts companies, notably Tesla,  that look like long-term winners, but it is also made up of young companies that may not have the cash to ride out a downturn, as well as in-between players like Lucid Group, Fisker and Rivian Automotive, that have done their best to prepare, and whose fate may depend on how bad things get.

With the economy at an inflection point between receding inflation fears and broad expectation of a recession beginning in 2023, the market doesn’t know what to make of moves like Tesla’s big price cuts, first in China and then on Jan. 13, in the U.S. and Europe. Analysts like Guggenheim Securities’ Ronald Jesikow said it could push Tesla’s profit margins 25% lower than Wall Street consensus and drain profits from all of Tesla’s competitors. But optimists like Wedbush analyst Dan Ives think it’s the right, aggressive move to jumpstart the EV transition amid macro uncertainty.

“Many dot-coms didn’t make it,” Ives said. “There’s no stress test for a severe recession for an industry that’s in its infancy.” 

What happens next — whether battered EV stocks rebound, whether young companies that need more funding will be able to get it, and whether the sector becomes the jobs engine Washington was counting on when it passed the Inflation Reduction Act last summer, laden with tax credits for EVs — depends on the economy first, and the markets second.

The “first EV recession” theme comes with a big if – that there is a recession in the first place, either here or in China, where Tesla sales dropped 44 percent in December from November levels as the government there continued struggling to contain Covid-19. 

In the U.S., most economists and CEOs think a recession is likely this year, though the market gains of the last week may reflect the beginnings of a change in the investor outlook, with more believing in the “soft landing” narrative for the economy. One holdout, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, forecasts a months-long “slowcession” where growth doesn’t quite turn negative. Either scenario would likely hurt car sales in general, which were the worst in a decade in the U.S. last year, but where some auto executives are now slightly more confident about a rebound, though the EV outlook among the automakers has become more cautious in the short-term. But either scenario may be too pessimistic if the economy responds positively to now-slowing inflation.

The outlook from China, home to more than half of the world’s EV sales, according to Clean Technica, is at least as murky. Manufacturing moved into negative-growth territory late in the year and housing prices are falling, but the International Monetary Fund says China will avoid a recession and grow its economy by 3.8% this year. That would be half of 2021’s clip and slightly below China’s pace last summer, when the nation began to cope with new Covid-related shutdowns. China is now pushing to reopen its economy amid the pandemic. 

Tesla’s 2023 world is like Amazon and eBay’s 2000

A recession, if it happens, doesn’t necessarily mean EV sales will fall. Most models saw big sales gains last year in both the U.S. and Asia. It’s more a question of whether EV companies will grow fast enough to keep adding jobs, and for companies beyond Tesla to turn profitable when investors expect them to — or before they run out of cash they raised to fund startup losses.

That sets up a dynamic a lot like the one that confronted dot-com companies like Amazon and eBay as 2000 blended into 2001: A web-stock selloff was well-underway then, just as EV companies like Tesla, Fisker and Lucid fell sharply last year — 65 percent for Tesla, 54 percent for Fisker and 82 percent for Lucid. Then as now, weaker players like today’s EV makers Lordstown Motors, Faraday Future and Canoo were scrambling to avoid running out of cash as an economic slowdown loomed, either by cutting costs or raising more money from investors.

“We look at a combination of balance sheet stability and ability to raise more capital,” said Greg Bissuk, CEO of AXS Investments in New York, which runs an exchange-traded fund that uses swaps to deliver the opposite of Tesla’s daily return — in essence, usually a near-term bet that the shares will drop. “We think it will be rocky,” he said, specifically referring to the middle-tier EV makers.

But at the same time, revenue at dot-com companies kept rising fast, and the businesses that were  destined to survive began to turn profitable between 2001 and 2003. Today, EV sales in China are rising, even as Covid continues to hamper its economy, and EVs posted a 52% sales gain in the U.S. At year-end, EVs had 6% of the U.S. light-vehicle market, compared to 1 percent of U.S. retail sales being online in late 2000.

Slower growth isn’t no growth

For EV makers, the likely impact of a recession is slower growth, but not the negative growth the overall economy experiences in a downturn, as new technology keeps gaining market share. 

The best-positioned EV maker is still Tesla, said CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson. With the company still expected to have generated about $4 billion in late-2022 cash flow when it reports fourth-quarter earnings Jan. 25, and having had about $21 billion at the end of the third quarter, it’s not in danger of a cash burn, Ives said.

“We think the stock rebounds quickly this year,” Nelson said, calling Tesla his top pick among all auto makers, and noting that CFRA economists don’t expect a recession. It trades at 24 times this year’s profit estimates, which in turn only call for 25% profit growth, numbers that are modest for a growth company with room to keep expanding fast.

Tesla shares will bounce back despite poor delivery numbers, says shareholder Gary Black

After the price cut, Nelson said the company will see narrower profit margin but will sell more cars.

“It should widen the company’s competitive advantage and make many more Tesla vehicles eligible for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit,” Nelson said.

The just-enacted price cut pulled the most-popular Model Y vehicles under the price maximum for tax-credit eligibility in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

Tesla has its own issues, with sales growth having slowed late in the year. Fourth-quarter units were up 32%, down sharply from earlier in the year, missing Wall Street estimates for a second straight quarter. CEO Elon Musk’s antics as the new lead owner of Twitter raise concerns about how closely Musk is watching the store, and how quickly he may respond if Tesla’s decline accelerates, Ives said.

“The biggest [issue] is Twitter,” Nelson said. 

On the plus side, this year’s earnings estimates assume no contribution from the Cybertruck, which Tesla is again promising to launch late this year, after being delayed since 2021. And Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney wrote Jan. 2 that vehicle deliveries should reaccelerate by midyear, helped by lower cost structures at Tesla’s newer factories and a pickup in Chinese sales.  

“Now is a time for leadership from Musk to lead Tesla through this period of softer demand in a darker macro, and not the time to be hands off, which is the perception of the Street,” Ives said. “This is a fork-in-the-road year for Tesla, where it will either lay the groundwork for its next chapter of growth or continue its slide.”

Cash burn and the rest of the EV market

In the middle, Lucid, Rivian and Fisker make up a range of higher-risk possibilities that may well turn out fine in the end. But Tesla’s price cutting may cause them problems: Fisker’s stock dropped almost 10% on its rival’s announcement, since Tesla’s move puts the Model Y’s price closer to that of the Fisker Ocean, whose middle tier is around $50,000.

Of the three, Rivian has the most cash on hand, with short-term investments at $13.3 billion as of the end of the third quarter. Fisker had $829 million, and Lucid had $3.85 billion.

Each company is still burning cash, posing the question of whether they have enough to survive a downturn. Fisker lost about $480 million in cash flow in the 12 months ending in September, and invested another $220 million, meaning its cash would last between one and two years if its losses and investment didn’t slow.

“Our commitment to a lean business model has given us a solid balance sheet, which we have supported with disciplined management of our cash,” CEO Henrik Fisker said in a statement to CNBC. “We are in good shape to manage future economic challenges and to act on opportunities.”

Lucid spent over $2 billion in the first nine months of 2022 on operating cash flow losses and capital investment, and says its cash will cover its plans “at least into the fourth quarter of 2023,” according to its third-quarter earnings call. Lucid’s recent production and delivery numbers did beat expectations, albeit expectations that had already been lowered.

Rivian’s stockpile is more than two years’ worth of recent cash-flow losses and investment. 

All three companies, which declined or didn’t respond to on-the-record interview requests, can also extend their cash runway by raising more capital and, indeed, at least two of them have already begun to do so. Lucid raised another $1.515 billion in December, mostly from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, while Fisker has filed to raise $2 billion from an ongoing shelf registration at the Securities and Exchange Commission and has so far raised $116 million.

EV maker Lucid to accelerate plans with its Saudi Arabia factory

All three should also give financial guidance for 2023 during earnings season, including updates on their capital spending, and on whether cash-flow losses will narrow as they begin to ship more vehicles.

Fisker began shipping its initial model, the Fisker Ocean, only in mid-November, and plans to ship a less-expensive SUV called the Fisker PEAR next year. Rivian, hampered by parts shortages due to Covid-driven supply chain issues, missed its 2022 production target of 25,000 vehicles by less than 700. It hasn’t yet said how many cars it will ship this year. Rivian also paused a partnership with Mercedes in November, ending for now a plan to co-develop commercial vehicles. Rivian said it would concentrate on its consumer business and other commercial ventures, primarily a deal to sell delivery vans to Amazon, that offer better risk-adjusted returns. That move will help avoid pressure on the startup’s capital base.

Business plans for the future, little current business

Lower on the food chain are companies like Faraday Future Intelligent Electric, Canoo and Lordstown Motors, which went public via mergers with Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, or SPACs, and have lost most of their equity value since. 

Lordstown in November announced a fresh investment by Foxconn, the contract manufacturer that will own 19.9% of Lordstown after the deal, including preferred stock, to help scale up production of its initial pickup truck and bolster the $204 million in cash on its balance sheet. Foxconn has agreed to make Fisker vehicles in Lordstown’s Ohio factory, which Foxconn bought in May, for launch in 2024. It issued a going-concern warning in 2021, before raising money from Foxconn.

“The new capital from Foxconn doesn’t change our focus” on cost containment, Lordstown CFO Adam Kroll said, arguing that the Foxconn deal will slash Lordstown’s capital needs. “We continue to execute a playbook of prudence and discipline.”

Companies like Faraday, Canoo and Lordstown that need to raise more capital could find the path blocked by a more-skeptical capital market than the one that financed them during the special-purpose acquisition company boom, CFRA’s Nelson said. Weaker players include Electro Mechanica, which has proposed a solo EV but hasn’t shipped it in scale yet, British commercial-vehicle maker Arrival, and Green Power Motor, a Canadian electric bus maker, he said. He even includes Fisker, Lucid and Rivian among those at risk from tighter markets.

“They had a business plan but no business, and they got absurd amounts of capital,” Nelson said. “In our opinion, you’ll see many additional bankruptcies, but the market will return to balance. But it’s hard to imagine we’ve seen the bottom.” 

But Nelson does believe the electric car boom is for real — indeed, he says Tesla is the year’s best bet in the overall auto industry. A note of skepticism: After the dot-com boom and bust, Amazon.com began rising off its lows in 2002, rising tenfold by 2008, but didn’t leave its 1999 highs behind for good until 2010. EBay recovered faster but couldn’t sustain its momentum. 

Ives said the Inflation Reduction Act, which offers tax credits of  $7,500 for electric cars costing less than $55,000 and SUVs or pickups selling for $80,000 or less, may throw the industry a lifeline as companies arrange to do enough domestic manufacturing to qualify all of their vehicles. Arrival, citing IRA credits of up to $40,000 for buyers of commercial vehicles, said in November that it is refocusing its London-based company on the U.S. market.

“The pressure in 2023 is less about EVs than the overall macro environment,” Ives said.  “The IRA is not a small point.”

That’s not lost even on Bassuk, who emphasizes that his fund is about helping exploit short-term weakness in the market’s view of EVs. Long-term, he says, EVs are coming, recession or not.

“Those with the capital to get through 2023, we’d bet the farm on,” he said.

CNBC is now accepting nominations for the 2023 Disruptor 50 list – our 11th annual look at the most innovative venture-backed companies. Learn more about eligibility and how to submit an application by Friday, Feb. 17.

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USDC stablecoin issuer Circle files for IPO as public markets open to crypto

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USDC stablecoin issuer Circle files for IPO as public markets open to crypto

Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder and CEO, Circle 

David A. Grogan | CNBC

Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, has filed for an initial public offering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The S1 lays the groundwork for Circle’s long-anticipated entry into the public markets.

While the filing does not yet disclose the number of shares or a price range, sources told Fortune that Circle plans to move forward with a public filing in late April and is targeting a market debut as early as June.

JPMorgan Chase and Citi are reportedly serving as lead underwriters, and the company is seeking a valuation between $4 billion and $5 billion, according to Fortune.

This marks Circle’s second attempt at going public. A prior SPAC merger with Concord Acquisition Corp collapsed in late 2022 amid regulatory challenges. Since then, Circle has made strategic moves to position itself closer to the heart of global finance — including the announcement last year that it would relocate its headquarters from Boston to One World Trade Center in New York City.

Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro

Circle is best known as the issuer of USDC, the world’s second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization.

Pegged one-to-one to the U.S. dollar and backed by cash and short-term Treasury securities, USDC has roughly $60 billion in circulation.

Circle is best known as the issuer of USDC, the world’s second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization.

Pegged one-to-one to the U.S. dollar and backed by cash and short-term Treasury securities, USDC has roughly $60 billion in circulation. It makes up about 26% of the total market cap for stablecoins, behind Tether‘s 67% dominance. Its market cap has grown 36% this year, however, compared with Tether’s 5% growth.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on the company’s most recent earnings call that it has a “stretch goal to make USDC the number 1 stablecoin.” 

The company’s push into public markets reflects a broader moment for the crypto industry, which is navigating renewed political favor under a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration. The stablecoin sector is ramping up as the industry grows increasingly confident that the crypto market will get its first piece of U.S. legislation passed and implemented this year, focusing on stablecoins.

Stablecoins’ growth could have investment implications for crypto exchanges like Robinhood and Coinbase as they integrate more of them into crypto trading and cross-border transfers. Coinbase also has an agreement with Circle to share 50% of the revenue of its USDC stablecoin.

The stablecoin market has grown about 11% so far this year and about 47% in the past year, and has become a “systemically important” part of the crypto market, according to Bernstein. Historically, digital assets in this sector have been used for trading and as collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi), and crypto investors watch them closely for evidence of demand, liquidity and activity in the market.

More recently, however, rhetoric around stablecoins’ ability to help preserve U.S. dollar dominance – by exporting dollar utility internationally and ensuring demand for U.S. government debt, which backs nearly all dollar-denominated stablecoins – has grown louder.

A successful IPO would make Circle one of the most prominent crypto-native firms to list on a U.S. exchange — an important signal for both investors and regulators as digital assets become more entwined with the traditional financial system.

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Hims & Hers shares rise as company adds new weight-loss medications to platform

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Hims & Hers shares rise as company adds new weight-loss medications to platform

The Hims app arranged on a smartphone in New York on Feb. 12, 2025.

Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Hims & Hers Health shares closed up 5% on Tuesday after the company announced patients can access Eli Lilly‘s weight loss medication Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro, as well as the generic injection liraglutide, through its platform.

Zepbound, Mounjaro and liraglutide are part of the class of weight loss medications called GLP-1s, which have exploded in popularity in recent years. Hims & Hers launched a weight loss program in late 2023, but its GLP-1 offerings have evolved as the company has contended with a volatile supply and regulatory environment.

Lilly’s weekly injections Zepbound and Mounjaro will cost patients $1,899 a month, according to the Hims & Hers website. The generic liraglutide will cost $299 a month, but it requires a daily injection and can be less effective than other GLP-1 medications.

“As we look ahead, we plan to continue to expand our weight loss offering to deliver an even more holistic, personalized experience,” Dr. Craig Primack, senior vice president of weight loss at Hims & Hers, wrote in a blog post.

A Lilly spokesperson said in a statement that the company has “no affiliation” with Hims & Hers and noted that Zepbound is available at lower costs for people who are insured for the product or for those who buy directly from the company. 

In May, Hims & Hers started prescribing compounded semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk‘s GLP-1 weight loss medications Ozempic and Wegovy. The offering was immensely popular and helped generate more than $225 million in revenue for the company in 2024.

But compounded drugs can traditionally only be mass produced when the branded medications treatments are in shortage. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced in February that the shortage of semaglutide injections products had been resolved.

That meant Hims & Hers had to largely stop offering the compounded medications, though some consumers may still be able to access personalized doses if it’s clinically applicable. 

During the company’s quarterly call with investors in February, Hims & Hers said its weight loss offerings will primarily consist of its oral medications and liraglutide. The company said it expects its weight loss offerings to generate at least $725 million in annual revenue, excluding contributions from compounded semaglutide.

But the company is still lobbying for compounded medications. A pop up on Hims & Hers’ website, which was viewed by CNBC, encourages users to “use your voice” and urge Congress and the FDA to preserve access to compounded treatments.

With Tuesday’s rally, Hims and Hers shares are up about 27% in 2025 after soaring 172% last year.

WATCH: Hims & Hers shares tumble over concerns around weight-loss business

Hims & Hers shares tumble over concerns around weight-loss business

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Meta’s head of AI research announces departure

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Meta's head of AI research announces departure

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg holds a smartphone as he makes a keynote speech at the Meta Connect annual event at the company’s headquarters in Menlo Park, California, on Sept. 25, 2024.

Manuel Orbegozo | Reuters

Meta’s head of artificial intelligence research announced Tuesday that she will be leaving the company. 

Joelle Pineau, the company’s vice president of AI research, announced her departure in a LinkedIn post, saying her last day at the social media company will be May 30. 

Her departure comes at a challenging time for Meta. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has made AI a top priority, investing billions of dollars in an effort to become the market leader ahead of rivals like OpenAI and Google.

Zuckerberg has said that it is his goal for Meta to build an AI assistant with more than 1 billion users and artificial general intelligence, which is a term used to describe computers that can think and take actions comparable to humans.

“As the world undergoes significant change, as the race for AI accelerates, and as Meta prepares for its next chapter, it is time to create space for others to pursue the work,” Pineau wrote. “I will be cheering from the sidelines, knowing that you have all the ingredients needed to build the best AI systems in the world, and to responsibly bring them into the lives of billions of people.”

Vice President of AI Research and Head of FAIR at Meta Joelle Pineau attends a technology demonstration at the META research laboratory in Paris on February 7, 2025.

Stephane De Sakutin | AFP | Getty Images

Pineau was one of Meta’s top AI researchers and led the company’s fundamental AI research unit, or FAIR, since 2023. There, she oversaw the company’s cutting-edge computer science-related studies, some of which are eventually incorporated into the company’s core apps. 

She joined the company in 2017 to lead Meta’s Montreal AI research lab. Pineau is also a computer science professor at McGill University, where she is a co-director of its reasoning and learning lab.

Some of the projects Pineau helped oversee include Meta’s open-source Llama family of AI models and other technologies like the PyTorch software for AI developers.

Pineau’s departure announcement comes a few weeks ahead of Meta’s LlamaCon AI conference on April 29. There, the company is expected to detail its latest version of Llama. Meta Chief Product Officer Chris Cox, to whom Pineau reported to, said in March that Llama 4 will help power AI agents, the latest craze in generative AI. The company is also expected to announce a standalone app for its Meta AI chatbot, CNBC reported in February

“We thank Joelle for her leadership of FAIR,” a Meta spokesperson said in a statement. “She’s been an important voice for Open Source and helped push breakthroughs to advance our products and the science behind them.” 

Pineau did not reveal her next role but said she “will be taking some time to observe and to reflect, before jumping into a new adventure.”

WATCH: Meta awaits antitrust fine from EU

Meta awaits antitrust fine from EU

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