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Is the first electric-vehicle recession here, or coming soon?

As electric-car stocks plummeted in late 2022, the rout evoked comparisons to the dot-com stock bust two decades ago. Like the internet industry then, the EV industry boasts companies, notably Tesla,  that look like long-term winners, but it is also made up of young companies that may not have the cash to ride out a downturn, as well as in-between players like Lucid Group, Fisker and Rivian Automotive, that have done their best to prepare, and whose fate may depend on how bad things get.

With the economy at an inflection point between receding inflation fears and broad expectation of a recession beginning in 2023, the market doesn’t know what to make of moves like Tesla’s big price cuts, first in China and then on Jan. 13, in the U.S. and Europe. Analysts like Guggenheim Securities’ Ronald Jesikow said it could push Tesla’s profit margins 25% lower than Wall Street consensus and drain profits from all of Tesla’s competitors. But optimists like Wedbush analyst Dan Ives think it’s the right, aggressive move to jumpstart the EV transition amid macro uncertainty.

“Many dot-coms didn’t make it,” Ives said. “There’s no stress test for a severe recession for an industry that’s in its infancy.” 

What happens next — whether battered EV stocks rebound, whether young companies that need more funding will be able to get it, and whether the sector becomes the jobs engine Washington was counting on when it passed the Inflation Reduction Act last summer, laden with tax credits for EVs — depends on the economy first, and the markets second.

The “first EV recession” theme comes with a big if – that there is a recession in the first place, either here or in China, where Tesla sales dropped 44 percent in December from November levels as the government there continued struggling to contain Covid-19. 

In the U.S., most economists and CEOs think a recession is likely this year, though the market gains of the last week may reflect the beginnings of a change in the investor outlook, with more believing in the “soft landing” narrative for the economy. One holdout, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, forecasts a months-long “slowcession” where growth doesn’t quite turn negative. Either scenario would likely hurt car sales in general, which were the worst in a decade in the U.S. last year, but where some auto executives are now slightly more confident about a rebound, though the EV outlook among the automakers has become more cautious in the short-term. But either scenario may be too pessimistic if the economy responds positively to now-slowing inflation.

The outlook from China, home to more than half of the world’s EV sales, according to Clean Technica, is at least as murky. Manufacturing moved into negative-growth territory late in the year and housing prices are falling, but the International Monetary Fund says China will avoid a recession and grow its economy by 3.8% this year. That would be half of 2021’s clip and slightly below China’s pace last summer, when the nation began to cope with new Covid-related shutdowns. China is now pushing to reopen its economy amid the pandemic. 

Tesla’s 2023 world is like Amazon and eBay’s 2000

A recession, if it happens, doesn’t necessarily mean EV sales will fall. Most models saw big sales gains last year in both the U.S. and Asia. It’s more a question of whether EV companies will grow fast enough to keep adding jobs, and for companies beyond Tesla to turn profitable when investors expect them to — or before they run out of cash they raised to fund startup losses.

That sets up a dynamic a lot like the one that confronted dot-com companies like Amazon and eBay as 2000 blended into 2001: A web-stock selloff was well-underway then, just as EV companies like Tesla, Fisker and Lucid fell sharply last year — 65 percent for Tesla, 54 percent for Fisker and 82 percent for Lucid. Then as now, weaker players like today’s EV makers Lordstown Motors, Faraday Future and Canoo were scrambling to avoid running out of cash as an economic slowdown loomed, either by cutting costs or raising more money from investors.

“We look at a combination of balance sheet stability and ability to raise more capital,” said Greg Bissuk, CEO of AXS Investments in New York, which runs an exchange-traded fund that uses swaps to deliver the opposite of Tesla’s daily return — in essence, usually a near-term bet that the shares will drop. “We think it will be rocky,” he said, specifically referring to the middle-tier EV makers.

But at the same time, revenue at dot-com companies kept rising fast, and the businesses that were  destined to survive began to turn profitable between 2001 and 2003. Today, EV sales in China are rising, even as Covid continues to hamper its economy, and EVs posted a 52% sales gain in the U.S. At year-end, EVs had 6% of the U.S. light-vehicle market, compared to 1 percent of U.S. retail sales being online in late 2000.

Slower growth isn’t no growth

For EV makers, the likely impact of a recession is slower growth, but not the negative growth the overall economy experiences in a downturn, as new technology keeps gaining market share. 

The best-positioned EV maker is still Tesla, said CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson. With the company still expected to have generated about $4 billion in late-2022 cash flow when it reports fourth-quarter earnings Jan. 25, and having had about $21 billion at the end of the third quarter, it’s not in danger of a cash burn, Ives said.

“We think the stock rebounds quickly this year,” Nelson said, calling Tesla his top pick among all auto makers, and noting that CFRA economists don’t expect a recession. It trades at 24 times this year’s profit estimates, which in turn only call for 25% profit growth, numbers that are modest for a growth company with room to keep expanding fast.

Tesla shares will bounce back despite poor delivery numbers, says shareholder Gary Black

After the price cut, Nelson said the company will see narrower profit margin but will sell more cars.

“It should widen the company’s competitive advantage and make many more Tesla vehicles eligible for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit,” Nelson said.

The just-enacted price cut pulled the most-popular Model Y vehicles under the price maximum for tax-credit eligibility in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

Tesla has its own issues, with sales growth having slowed late in the year. Fourth-quarter units were up 32%, down sharply from earlier in the year, missing Wall Street estimates for a second straight quarter. CEO Elon Musk’s antics as the new lead owner of Twitter raise concerns about how closely Musk is watching the store, and how quickly he may respond if Tesla’s decline accelerates, Ives said.

“The biggest [issue] is Twitter,” Nelson said. 

On the plus side, this year’s earnings estimates assume no contribution from the Cybertruck, which Tesla is again promising to launch late this year, after being delayed since 2021. And Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney wrote Jan. 2 that vehicle deliveries should reaccelerate by midyear, helped by lower cost structures at Tesla’s newer factories and a pickup in Chinese sales.  

“Now is a time for leadership from Musk to lead Tesla through this period of softer demand in a darker macro, and not the time to be hands off, which is the perception of the Street,” Ives said. “This is a fork-in-the-road year for Tesla, where it will either lay the groundwork for its next chapter of growth or continue its slide.”

Cash burn and the rest of the EV market

In the middle, Lucid, Rivian and Fisker make up a range of higher-risk possibilities that may well turn out fine in the end. But Tesla’s price cutting may cause them problems: Fisker’s stock dropped almost 10% on its rival’s announcement, since Tesla’s move puts the Model Y’s price closer to that of the Fisker Ocean, whose middle tier is around $50,000.

Of the three, Rivian has the most cash on hand, with short-term investments at $13.3 billion as of the end of the third quarter. Fisker had $829 million, and Lucid had $3.85 billion.

Each company is still burning cash, posing the question of whether they have enough to survive a downturn. Fisker lost about $480 million in cash flow in the 12 months ending in September, and invested another $220 million, meaning its cash would last between one and two years if its losses and investment didn’t slow.

“Our commitment to a lean business model has given us a solid balance sheet, which we have supported with disciplined management of our cash,” CEO Henrik Fisker said in a statement to CNBC. “We are in good shape to manage future economic challenges and to act on opportunities.”

Lucid spent over $2 billion in the first nine months of 2022 on operating cash flow losses and capital investment, and says its cash will cover its plans “at least into the fourth quarter of 2023,” according to its third-quarter earnings call. Lucid’s recent production and delivery numbers did beat expectations, albeit expectations that had already been lowered.

Rivian’s stockpile is more than two years’ worth of recent cash-flow losses and investment. 

All three companies, which declined or didn’t respond to on-the-record interview requests, can also extend their cash runway by raising more capital and, indeed, at least two of them have already begun to do so. Lucid raised another $1.515 billion in December, mostly from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, while Fisker has filed to raise $2 billion from an ongoing shelf registration at the Securities and Exchange Commission and has so far raised $116 million.

EV maker Lucid to accelerate plans with its Saudi Arabia factory

All three should also give financial guidance for 2023 during earnings season, including updates on their capital spending, and on whether cash-flow losses will narrow as they begin to ship more vehicles.

Fisker began shipping its initial model, the Fisker Ocean, only in mid-November, and plans to ship a less-expensive SUV called the Fisker PEAR next year. Rivian, hampered by parts shortages due to Covid-driven supply chain issues, missed its 2022 production target of 25,000 vehicles by less than 700. It hasn’t yet said how many cars it will ship this year. Rivian also paused a partnership with Mercedes in November, ending for now a plan to co-develop commercial vehicles. Rivian said it would concentrate on its consumer business and other commercial ventures, primarily a deal to sell delivery vans to Amazon, that offer better risk-adjusted returns. That move will help avoid pressure on the startup’s capital base.

Business plans for the future, little current business

Lower on the food chain are companies like Faraday Future Intelligent Electric, Canoo and Lordstown Motors, which went public via mergers with Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, or SPACs, and have lost most of their equity value since. 

Lordstown in November announced a fresh investment by Foxconn, the contract manufacturer that will own 19.9% of Lordstown after the deal, including preferred stock, to help scale up production of its initial pickup truck and bolster the $204 million in cash on its balance sheet. Foxconn has agreed to make Fisker vehicles in Lordstown’s Ohio factory, which Foxconn bought in May, for launch in 2024. It issued a going-concern warning in 2021, before raising money from Foxconn.

“The new capital from Foxconn doesn’t change our focus” on cost containment, Lordstown CFO Adam Kroll said, arguing that the Foxconn deal will slash Lordstown’s capital needs. “We continue to execute a playbook of prudence and discipline.”

Companies like Faraday, Canoo and Lordstown that need to raise more capital could find the path blocked by a more-skeptical capital market than the one that financed them during the special-purpose acquisition company boom, CFRA’s Nelson said. Weaker players include Electro Mechanica, which has proposed a solo EV but hasn’t shipped it in scale yet, British commercial-vehicle maker Arrival, and Green Power Motor, a Canadian electric bus maker, he said. He even includes Fisker, Lucid and Rivian among those at risk from tighter markets.

“They had a business plan but no business, and they got absurd amounts of capital,” Nelson said. “In our opinion, you’ll see many additional bankruptcies, but the market will return to balance. But it’s hard to imagine we’ve seen the bottom.” 

But Nelson does believe the electric car boom is for real — indeed, he says Tesla is the year’s best bet in the overall auto industry. A note of skepticism: After the dot-com boom and bust, Amazon.com began rising off its lows in 2002, rising tenfold by 2008, but didn’t leave its 1999 highs behind for good until 2010. EBay recovered faster but couldn’t sustain its momentum. 

Ives said the Inflation Reduction Act, which offers tax credits of  $7,500 for electric cars costing less than $55,000 and SUVs or pickups selling for $80,000 or less, may throw the industry a lifeline as companies arrange to do enough domestic manufacturing to qualify all of their vehicles. Arrival, citing IRA credits of up to $40,000 for buyers of commercial vehicles, said in November that it is refocusing its London-based company on the U.S. market.

“The pressure in 2023 is less about EVs than the overall macro environment,” Ives said.  “The IRA is not a small point.”

That’s not lost even on Bassuk, who emphasizes that his fund is about helping exploit short-term weakness in the market’s view of EVs. Long-term, he says, EVs are coming, recession or not.

“Those with the capital to get through 2023, we’d bet the farm on,” he said.

CNBC is now accepting nominations for the 2023 Disruptor 50 list – our 11th annual look at the most innovative venture-backed companies. Learn more about eligibility and how to submit an application by Friday, Feb. 17.

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Elon Musk’s xAI Holdings in talks to raise $20 billion, Bloomberg News reports

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Elon Musk's xAI Holdings in talks to raise  billion, Bloomberg News reports

The X logo appears on a phone, and the xAI logo is displayed on a laptop in Krakow, Poland, on April 1, 2025. (Photo by Klaudia Radecka/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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Elon Musk‘s xAI Holdings is in discussions with investors to raise about $20 billion, Bloomberg News reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The funding would value the company at over $120 billion, according to the report.

Musk was looking to assign “proper value” to xAI, sources told CNBC’s David Faber earlier this month. The remarks were made during a call with xAI investors, sources familiar with the matter told Faber. The Tesla CEO at that time didn’t explicitly mention any upcoming funding round, but the sources suggested xAI was preparing for a substantial capital raise in the near future.

The funding amount could be more than $20 billion as the exact figure had not been decided, the Bloomberg report added.

Artificial intelligence startup xAI didn’t immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment outside of U.S. business hours.

Faber Report: Elon Musk held call with current xAI investors, sources say

The AI firm last month acquired X in an all-stock deal that valued xAI at $80 billion and the social media platform at $33 billion.

“xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent,” Musk said on X, announcing the deal. “This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI’s advanced AI capability and expertise with X’s massive reach.”

Read the full Bloomberg story here.

— CNBC’s Samantha Subin contributed to this report.

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Alphabet jumps 3% as search, advertising units show resilient growth

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Alphabet jumps 3% as search, advertising units show resilient growth

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai during the Google I/O developers conference in Mountain View, California, on May 10, 2023.

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Alphabet‘s stock gained 3% Friday after signaling strong growth in its search and advertising businesses amid a competitive artificial intelligence environment and uncertain macro backdrop.

GOOGL‘s pace of GenAI product roll-out is accelerating with multiple encouraging signals,” wrote Morgan Stanley‘s Brian Nowak. “Macro uncertainty still exists but we remain [overweight] given GOOGL’s still strong relative position and improving pace of GenAI enabled product roll-out.”

The search giant posted earnings of $2.81 per share on $90.23 billion in revenues. That topped the $89.12 billion in sales and $2.01 in EPS expected by LSEG analysts. Revenues grew 12% year-over-year and ahead of the 10% anticipated by Wall Street.

Net income rose 46% to $34.54 billion, or $2.81 per share. That’s up from $23.66 billion, or $1.89 per share, in the year-ago period. Alphabet said the figure included $8 billion in unrealized gains on its nonmarketable equity securities connected to its investment in a private company.

Adjusted earnings, excluding that gain, were $2.27 per share, according to LSEG, and topped analyst expectations.

Read more CNBC tech news

Alphabet shares have pulled back about 16% this year as it battles volatility spurred by mounting trade war fears and worries that President Donald Trump‘s tariffs could crush the global economy. That would make it more difficult for Alphabet to potentially acquire infrastructure for data centers powering AI models as it faces off against competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic to develop largely language models.

During Thursday’s call with investors, Alphabet suggested that it’s too soon to tally the total impact of tariffs. However, Google’s business chief Philipp Schindler said that ending the de minimis trade exemption in May, which created a loophole benefitting many Chinese e-commerce retailers, could create a “slight headwind” for the company’s ads business, specifically in the Asia-Pacific region. The loophole allows shipments under $800 to come into the U.S. duty-free.

Despite this backdrop, Alphabet showed steady growth in its advertising and search business, reporting $66.89 billion in revenues for its advertising unit. That reflected 8.5% growth from the year-ago period. The company reported $8.93 billion in advertising revenue for its YouTube business, shy of an $8.97 billion estimate from StreetAccount.

Alphabet’s “Search and other” unit rose 9.8% to $50.7 billion, up from $46.16 billion last year. The company said that its AI Overviews tool used in its Google search results page has accumulated 1.5 billion monthly users from a billion in October.

Bank of America analyst Justin Post said that Wall Street is underestimating the upside potential and “monetization ramp” from this tool and cloud demand fueled by AI.

“The strong 1Q search performance, along with constructive comments on Gemini [large language model] performance and [AI Overviews] adoption could help alleviate some investor concerns on AI competition,” Post wrote in a note.

WATCH: Gemini delivering well for Google, says Check Capital’s Chris Ballard

Gemini delivering well for Google, says Check Capital's Chris Ballard

CNBC’s Jennifer Elias contributed to this report.

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Amazon sellers raise prices after Trump’s China tariff: ‘It’s unsustainable’

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Amazon sellers raise prices after Trump's China tariff: 'It's unsustainable'

An Amazon employee works to fulfill same-day orders during Cyber Monday, one of the company’s busiest days at an Amazon fulfillment center on December 2, 2024 in Orlando, Florida. 

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For 10 years, Aaron Cordovez has been selling kitchen appliances on Amazon. Now he’s in a bind, because most of his products are manufactured in China.

Cordovez, co-founder of Zulay Kitchen, said his company is moving “as fast as we can” to move production to India, Mexico and other markets, where tariffs are increasing under President Donald Trump, but are mild compared with the levies imposed on goods from China. That process will likely take at least a year or two to complete, he said.

“We’re making our inventory last as long as we can,” Cordovez said in an email.

Zulay is also temporarily raising the price of some of its milk frothers, smores roasting sticks and other products. The company’s popular kitchen strainer now costs $12.99, up from $9.99 before Trump announced his sweeping tariff proposal earlier this month.

Amazon merchants are hiking prices for everything from diaper bags and refrigerator magnets to charm necklaces and other top-selling items as they confront higher import costs. E-commerce software company SmartScout tracked 930 products on Amazon that have seen increased prices since April 9, with an average jump of 29%.

The price hikes affect a range of categories, including clothing, jewelry, household items, office supplies, electronics and toys.

The trade war with China has threatened to upend sellers on Amazon’s third-party marketplace, which accounts for about 60% of the company’s online sales. Many merchants are based in China or rely on the world’s second-largest economy to source and assemble their products.

Sellers are now faced with the conundrum of raising prices or eating the extra costs associated with Trump’s new tariffs. It’s an existential threat for many sellers, who subsist on razor-thin margins and have, for the last several years, dealt with rising costs on Amazon tied to storage, fulfillment, shipping and advertising fees along with pricing pressure from increased competition.

CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC earlier this month that the company was “going to try and do everything we can” to keep prices low for shoppers, including renegotiating terms with some of its suppliers. But he acknowledged some third-party sellers will “need to pass that cost” of tariffs on to consumers.

Amazon’s stock price is down 15% so far this year, sliding along with the broader market. The company reports first-quarter earnings next week.

Watch CNBC's full interview with Amazon CEO Andy Jassy

Goods imported from China now face import duties of 145%, though Trump said Wednesday his administration is “actively” talking with China about a potential deal to lower tariffs. Chinese officials on Thursday denied that trade talks are taking place.

About 25% of the price increases observed by SmartScout were initiated by sellers based in China, said Scott Needham, the company’s CEO. Last week, stainless steel jewelry maker Ursteel hiked prices on four of its products by $6.50, while apparel brand Chouyatou raised the price of some of its dresses by $2. Both businesses are based in China’s Zhejiang province.

Anker, a Chinese electronics brand and one of Amazon’s largest sellers, has raised prices on one-fifth of its products sold in the U.S., including a portable power bank, which went up to $135 from $110, SmartScout data shows.

Representatives from Anker, Ursteel and Chouyatou didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Zulay, headquartered in Florida, is one of many U.S.-based sellers raising prices. The company is also cutting costs. Cordovez said he’s been forced to lay off 19% of his workforce and slash online ad spending by 85%.

Desert Cactus, based in Illinois, is also taking action. Joe Stefani, the company’s president, has been looking to move production of some of his brand’s college-themed merchandise out of China and into Mexico, India and Vietnam. About half of Desert Cactus’ goods come from China, while the rest are made in the U.S., Stefani said.

An Amazon worker moves a cart filled with packages at an Amazon delivery station in Alpharetta, Georgia, on Nov. 28, 2022.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

One of the company’s top products is a customizable license plate frame that’s manufactured in China. At the start of Trump’s first term in 2016, Stefani’s company paid import and shipping fees of 4% on the license plates. That rate has since skyrocketed to 170%, he said.

“The tariffs can’t stay this high,” Stefani said. “There’s so many people that just aren’t going to make it.”

Stefani said he expects Desert Cactus will end up raising prices on some products, though he’s worried shoppers might be put off by sticker shock.

“Will someone be willing to pay $50 for a hat on Amazon?” Stefani said. “You know it’s going to be expensive at the ballpark, but on Amazon we don’t know.”

Dave Dama, co-founder of health and beauty business Pure Daily Care, said the price to manufacture one of his skin-care products in China jumped to $25 from $10. Most Amazon sellers will have no choice but to raise prices, he said.

“If you were selling something for $40 and making a $7 or $8 profit at the end of the day, with these tariffs, those days are gone,” Dama said. “You can’t do that anymore. It’s unsustainable.”

Pure Daily Care plans to stagger price increases over several weeks, and only on products “we absolutely need to,” to keep Amazon’s algorithms from ranking it lower in search results or losing the valuable buy box, he said. The buy box determines which listing pops up first when a shopper clicks on a particular product, and the one that gets purchased when they tap “Add to Cart.”

An Amazon spokesperson said the company’s pricing policies continue to apply.

“As always, sellers set their own prices, and we regularly monitor how we highlight great prices as Featured Offers to provide customers with low prices across a wide selection,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

Dama said his company has enough inventory for some products to last up to six months, which it aims to “stretch as long as possible” in the hope that China and the U.S. can reach a trade deal. The company is also forgoing some sales promotions and discounts, while pausing spend on some display and video ads.

Regarding his inventory, Dama said, “We can try to stretch that seven, eight, nine months, which buys us a lot more time for this thing to work out, hopefully.”

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Trump tariffs are raising prices on Amazon and threatening to ruin U.S. sellers who source in China

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